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NYSE:NEM Newmont Corporation

ISIN: US6516391066 · CUSIP: 651639106
Basic Materials Gold Mining Cash-Cow / Senior Producer
NYSE · HQ: Denver, CO · CEO: Natascha Viljoen · Mkt Cap: $115.8B · World's largest gold producer
⚠ TSX:NGT listing could not be validated via the data source (Yahoo has no NGT.TO data); analysed on the US NYSE listing (USD).
$108.44
+$2.64 (+2.50%)
Jun 16, 2026 · Signal v6
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HorizonSignalComposite ScoreConfidenceKey Driver
Short-term (1–3 mo) WAIT-FOR-EVENT 65 62% FOMC Jun 17 (high-impact, gold rate-sensitive) — let the decision clear before timing an entry
Medium-term (6–12 mo) STRONG BUY 69 62% Cheap on ~10.5× forward / ~10.7% FCF yield, gold-margin tailwind + Materials "Strong Outperform" macro regime
Long-term (3–5 yr) STRONG BUY 72 62% Tier-1 senior producer, net-cash balance sheet, structural de-dollarisation / central-bank gold bid
Next update: 2026-06-18 — FOMC 2026-06-17 +1 trading day (high-impact release, high-sensitivity sector)
Table of Contents
1Five-Pillar Scorecard 2Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status 3Pillar Detail: Business Quality 4Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness 5Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers 6Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment 7Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing 8Economic Event Risk 9Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis 10Price Chart (6-Month Daily) 11Scenario Summary 12Entry / Exit Rules 13Position Sizing Context 14Calibration Snapshot 15Data Sources & Methodology
1

Five-Pillar Scorecard

Five independent scores — Business Quality, Valuation Attractiveness, Entry/Exit Timing, Underlying Drivers, and Economic Alignment — each 0–100 with a confidence. The per-horizon base BUY/HOLD/SELL comes from the three fundamental pillars (Quality / Valuation / Timing) via the Decision Matrix; the two context pillars (Underlying Drivers, Economic Alignment) then amplify a BUY to STRONG BUY when both corroborate. Here a BUY base + gold-margin Tailwind (76) + Materials "Strong Outperform" economy lifts Medium and Long to STRONG BUY; Short is held at WAIT by the imminent FOMC.

Business Quality

74
Net-cash balance sheet, 69% EBITDA margin, record FCF; weak commodity moat caps it
Confidence: 78%

Valuation

76
~10.5× fwd P/E, ~10.7% FCF yield, +32% to consensus target
Confidence: 88%

Entry/Exit Timing

56
Oversold bounce off $92 reclaiming SMA200; below SMA50, FOMC tomorrow
Confidence: 62%

Underlying Drivers

76
Gold ~$4,150 vs $1,680 AISC — ~$2,470/oz margin (≈60% of spot)
Confidence: 62% · STRONG-eligible (Tailwind)

Economic Alignment

78
Trend-Following · Tailwind
Confidence: 72% · Macro report 2026-06-13
2

Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status

Binary safety checks — financial distress, valuation ceiling, accounting/dilution, binary events, commodity floor (severe driver collapse) and an imminent-event blackout. Any TRIGGERED gate is a hard Do-Not-Buy regardless of how strong the scores are; a CAUTION is a note for position sizing. Newmont clears every distress gate (net cash, 68× interest coverage, falling share count); the only live note is the FOMC-blackout that holds the short-term timing.
✅
Financial Distress
Net cash (~$2.8/sh), D/E 0.16, interest coverage 68×, current ratio 2.44 — clear.
✅
Valuation Ceiling
$108.44 sits below every analyst target (low $111, median $140). Clear.
✅
Accounting / Dilution
Share count falling 1,147M→1,085M on $6B buyback. No dilution. Clear.
✅
Regulatory / Binary Event
No FDA / antitrust / single-asset binary. Clear.
✅
Severe Driver Collapse
Gold ~$4,150 ≫ $1,680 AISC — driver 76, nowhere near the viability floor. Clear.
⚠️
Imminent-Event Blackout (Short only)
FOMC Jun 17 — high-impact for a rate-sensitive gold miner. Caps the short-term signal at WAIT-FOR-EVENT; does not affect Medium/Long.

No Do-Not-Buy trigger fired. Hard-gate state: CLEAR (the FOMC item is a short-horizon timing caution, not a structural block).

3

Pillar Detail: Business Quality

Why Quality scored 74: a deep dive into mining economics (AISC margin), cash generation, balance sheet, the competitive moat, and capital allocation. Lifecycle = Cash Cow / Mature senior producer; metrics use the Mining/Materials profile (AISC, FCF yield, P/NAV) rather than growth-stage SaaS metrics.
Business Quality — Pillar Score
A genuinely high-quality miner — tier-1 scale, 69% EBITDA margin, net cash, record free cash flow — held back only by the structural lack of a commodity moat (a price-taker) and rising 2026 unit costs.
74
Confidence 78%

Lifecycle & Sector Classification

Basic Materials → Gold Mining (producer). Lifecycle: Cash Cow / Mature — high, gold-price-leveraged cash generation, minimal volume growth (2026 output guided down ~5.7M→5.26M attributable oz), shareholder returns prioritised over reinvestment. Primary benchmark: AISC margin (spot − AISC).

Sub-Signal Scorecard

Sub-SignalValueSector ContextScore
Revenue trajectoryQ1-26 $7.18B, +47% YoYGold-price driven; TTM revenue $24.4B82
Profitability vs peersEBITDA margin 69%, net 34.6%Top-tier among senior producers85
Cash generationFCF/sh $11.31; record Q1 FCF $3.1BFCF conversion >100% of net income90
Balance-sheet healthNet cash; D/E 0.16; IC 68×Among the strongest in the sector92
Production / cost trendOutput −7% YoY; AISC $1,339→$1,680/ozLower volumes + higher sustaining capex52
INDUSTRY BENCHMARK: AISC Margin (Mining)
Spot gold ~$4,150/oz · 2026 AISC guidance $1,680/oz · AISC margin ≈ $2,470/oz ≈ 60% of spot.
Rating: STRONG — margin > 40% of spot. Even after gold's −25% slide from its $5,608 January peak, Newmont still clears ~$2,470 of cash margin on every ounce. Benchmark score: 92/100.

Competitive Moat Scorecard

Pricing Power

25
Pure price-taker on gold

Network Effects

50
N/A (neutral)

Switching Costs

50
N/A (neutral)

Cost Advantage

52
Scale + tier-1 assets, but mid-tier AISC

Intangibles

48
Tier-1 reserves/jurisdictions; no brand

Moat average ≈ 45. This is expected and not penalised beyond reason — miners earn returns from scale, reserve quality and cost position, not from moats. Newmont's edge is being the largest, most diversified senior with tier-1 jurisdictions; its weakness is that unit costs sit mid-pack versus Agnico Eagle / Kinross.

ROIC & Capital Allocation

DimensionReadingAssessment
Returns on capitalROE ~24% (NI/sh $7.79 ÷ BV/sh $32.35); FMP ROE & ROA sub-scores 5/5Top-quartile through the current gold cycle
Capital allocation$6B buyback (doubled in Q1); share count 1,147M→1,085M; non-core divestitures completedDisciplined, returns-focused — score ~72
Dividend sustainability$1.02/yr, payout only 13% of earnings, covered 9× by FCF-after-capexVery safe; room to grow
Management skin-in-gameTypical large-cap insider ownership; no excessive SBCNeutral ~50

FMP financial-health rating: A− (overall 4/5) — DCF, ROE and ROA all max (5/5). The D/E, P/E and P/B sub-scores (2/5) reflect FMP's absolute thresholds, not real weakness: the actual D/E is 0.16 and the "low" P/E is a function of peak-cycle earnings, both of which are strengths here.

4

Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness

Why Valuation scored 76: sector-appropriate multiples (P/NAV proxy via EV/EBITDA, forward P/E), the universal FCF-yield anchor, a reverse-DCF read of what growth the market is pricing, embedded optionality, and the analyst-consensus cross-check. The tension to keep in mind: these multiples sit on near-peak-gold earnings, so "cheap" must survive a gold-price normalisation — which the reverse-DCF below shows it does.
Valuation Attractiveness — Pillar Score
Attractive on every honest lens — ~10.5× forward earnings, ~10.7% free-cash-flow yield, 6.7× EV/EBITDA, and a price below the lowest analyst target. The market is pricing in a meaningful gold pullback that the cash flows can absorb.
76
Confidence 88%
MultipleCurrentReferenceRead
Forward P/E (2026E EPS $10.31)~10.5×Senior-producer norm 12–18×Cheap
Trailing P/E (TTM EPS $7.79)13.9×Below own multi-year midAttractive
EV / EBITDA (TTM)6.7×Sector mid-cycle 7–9×Attractive
P / Tangible Book3.6×Premium for 24% ROE — justifiedFair
Dividend yield0.94%Low payout (13%) — buyback-led returnsFair
FCF YIELD (universal anchor): FCF/sh $11.31 × ~1.07B sh ≈ $12.1B FCF ÷ EV $112.5B ≈ 10.7% (≈10.6% on market cap). Anything > 8% is "very attractive." Newmont is throwing off cash at a double-digit yield even after the gold correction.

Reverse DCF — what is the market pricing?

At $108.44 (EV $112.5B) on ~$12B trailing FCF and a ~10% WACC, the market is implying roughly flat-to-mildly-declining free cash flow in perpetuity — i.e. it is pricing in a substantial gold normalisation off the $4,900/oz Q1 realisation. Yet consensus still sees EPS holding ~$10–11 through 2028 (2026E $10.31, 2027E $11.53, 2028E $12.77). Implied growth < consensus growth → the market is pessimistic → Attractive. You are not paying for gold to stay at record highs; you are paying a price that already assumes it falls.

Embedded Optionality / Free Upside — what you own at $108 that the price barely values:
Net: the in-production gold business alone justifies most of the $108 even on conservative gold; copper, buyback accretion and gold re-rating are largely free. Optionality is a +5 tilt here, not the thesis.

Analyst Consensus Cross-Check

MetricValueRead
Consensus target$143.33 (+32% vs $108.44)Price >20% below consensus → strong support (85–100)
Median / High / Low$140 / $175 / $111Even the low target is above the current price
RecencyLast-month avg $154 (2 firms); last-quarter $146.86 (7)Targets rising, not stale
Grades distribution27 Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell (75% bullish)"Buy" consensus, no sells; Bernstein & Scotiabank upgrades recently
5

Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers

The dominant external force Newmont is tethered to — the gold price (with real interest rates as the inverse second-order driver, and copper as a secondary by-product driver). A context pillar: a Tailwind ≥65 can lift a BUY to STRONG BUY; it does not move the fundamental scores. This section also names the thesis-invalidation floor.
Primary Driver — Gold Price (real rates inverse · copper secondary)
Tailwind · STRONG-BUY-eligible (≥65)
76
HorizonReading (source · date)Score
Historical (25%)Gold ran $1,800 (2022) → $5,608 ATH (Jan 2026), then a −25% correction to ~$4,150 by mid-June. Secular bull intact, momentum decelerating. (news, FRED)70
Current (50%)Spot ~$4,150 vs 2026 AISC $1,680 → ~$2,470/oz margin (~60% of spot). For Newmont's economics this is extraordinarily favourable (skill anchor: $2,200 vs $1,300 AISC = "90+"). Tempered slightly by negative near-term momentum and a rising-real-rate backdrop (10Y 4.47%, sticky 4%+ CPI, hawkish Fed). (FMP, web, Jun 2026)86
Forward (25%)Macro report rates GLD "Strong Outperform" across all horizons on de-dollarisation + central-bank buying; near-term headwind from real rates, the Hormuz de-escalation removing the war premium, and a −400k oz production step-down. (MacroDriver 2026-06-13)64

Driver = 0.25·70 + 0.50·86 + 0.25·64 ≈ 76 → Tailwind. This makes NEM eligible to amplify a base BUY to STRONG BUY (it does not change Quality/Valuation/Timing). Thesis-invalidation floor: a sustained gold price toward ~$2,000/oz (collapsing the AISC margin) would break the case — roughly a 50% further fall from here, well below any current scenario.

Driver confidence 62% — base 70, −8 for gold's inherent volatility / wide forward dispersion.

6

Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment

How the current macro climate sits relative to Newmont, read from the latest Macro-Economic report. It classifies the macro pressure as Tailwind / Neutral / Headwind, and frames a long entry as Trend-Following or Contrarian with a 0–100 conviction. The pressure is the second amplifier — a Tailwind alongside the gold-margin driver lifts a BUY to STRONG BUY.
FieldReading
SourceMacroDriver Weekly, dated 2026-06-13 (3 days old — fresh). NEM is not a named watchlist line, so mapped via its GICS sector → Materials (XLB) in the Driver-Sector Impact Matrix. (sector-map)
Sector signalXLB: Short SO · Medium SO · Long SO (Strong Outperform across all horizons). Capital flow: IN / IN / IN. GLD asset class: SO / SO / SO.
RegimeDominant regime Stagflation (44%) — oil shock + hawkish Fed; Critical drivers: Iran/Hormuz crisis & private-credit stress; rising de-dollarisation (3→4). A textbook backdrop for a gold producer.
PressureTailwind (anchored on Medium; Short and Long both Tailwind too).
Stance · ConvictionTrend-Following · 78 — going long rides a strongly favourable economic trend (gold/Materials are the regime's preferred exposure).

Amplification: the Tailwind pressure, alongside the Driver's Tailwind (76), lifts the base BUY to STRONG BUY for Medium and Long. The Short horizon stays at WAIT-FOR-EVENT because the §8 imminent-FOMC override governs the short-term tape regardless of the favourable economy.

7

Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing

Why Timing scored 56: the risk-reward setup, relative strength vs SPY and the gold-miner ETF (GDX), the macro overlay at Materials' high sensitivity weight, news-derived sentiment, and the 0–12 month catalyst cluster. Read this to understand when to act — the fundamentals are strong, but the tape is mid-recovery and an FOMC sits one day out.
Entry/Exit Timing — Pillar Score
A constructive but unfinished recovery: a sharp oversold bounce off the $92 low that has reclaimed the 200-day ($102) and is pressing the 50-day ($110.7) — but relative strength vs the S&P is still poor and tomorrow's FOMC is a binary swing factor for gold.
56
Confidence 62%
Sub-signalReadingScore
MTF trend (weighted)Monthly uptrend, weekly uptrend, daily weakening but bouncing (MACD histogram turned +0.29), hourly/15-min strong uptrend68
Risk-rewardAbove support $102 (SMA200) / $98; stop logic at $92; resistance $110.7→$115→$122. RR to base target ≈ 1.9:162
Relative strengthNEM −18% from pre-war vs SPY at record highs (+10%); roughly in line with GDX (−17%). Lagging the market, recently outperforming on the bounce35
Macro overlay (Materials, high-sensitivity, 20%)Fed hawkish (gold headwind) vs sector rotation strongly IN (XLB SO) — net constructive55
Sentiment (15%)Analyst grades net-positive (Bernstein upgrade Feb, Scotiabank Oct; all maintains since at Buy/Outperform, 0 downgrades). News tone near-term negative ("gold bear market," production cut) offset by "undervalued / record FCF"48
Catalysts (15%)FOMC Jun 17 (high impact); next earnings ~late July52

Timing = 0.30·68 + 0.20·62 + 0.20·55 + 0.15·48 + 0.15·52 ≈ 56. The RSI tagged 30 at the $92 low on Jun 10 and has turned up with the MACD histogram inflecting positive — a classic higher-timeframe-uptrend / lower-timeframe-pullback bounce. Confidence 62% (base 75, −10 for a high-impact FOMC within 7 days in a high-sensitivity sector, −3 RS noise).

8

Economic Event Risk

The next ~2 weeks of high-impact macro releases that can swing a rate-sensitive gold miner, plus the last week's surprises. Materials is a High macro-sensitivity sector, so a high-impact release within 3 trading days triggers a WAIT-FOR-EVENT short-term override — which is exactly the case here with the FOMC one day out.
DateEventImpactForecast / PrevRelevance to NEM
Jun 17FOMC rate decision + projections + presserHIGHHold 3.75% (prev 3.75%)✅ Critical — real-rate path is gold's primary macro lever. Hawkish hold = gold headwind; any dovish tilt = tailwind
Jun 17US Retail Sales (May)HIGH+0.5% / +0.5%⚠ Growth/inflation read feeds the rate path
Jun 25Core PCE (May)HIGH~+0.3% (sticky)✅ Inflation surprise moves real rates → gold
~late JulNewmont Q2 2026 earningsHIGH—✅ Realised gold, AISC, FCF, buyback pace

Recent surprises (last 7d): NY Empire Manufacturing 5.7 vs 14 forecast (soft), Industrial Production +0.1% MoM (soft), Housing Starts 1.177M vs 1.43M (well below), Atlanta Fed GDPNow trimmed 3.3→2.8. The growth data is cooling — mildly supportive of an eventual dovish pivot (gold-positive), but the June FOMC is still expected to hold at 3.75% with easing language at risk of removal. This is why the short-term signal is WAIT-FOR-EVENT: the directional view is fine, but acting the day before the FOMC adds avoidable path risk.

9

Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis

Trend, RSI, MACD and breakout status across five timeframes plus a confluence verdict. The tool's headline confluence is "strongly bullish," but the honest read is a higher-timeframe uptrend with a daily chart still mid-repair — the textbook "buy-the-dip in an uptrend" pattern, pending the 50-day reclaim.
TimeframeTrendRSIMACDKey S / RBreakout
MonthlyUptrend ↑67+ (hist +3.4)S 86 · R 134.9Resistance breakout
WeeklyUptrend ↑51− (hist −2.5)S 106.9 · R 122None / consolidating
DailyWeakening →53− but turning (hist +0.29)S 103.6 · R 110.7 (SMA50)Reclaimed SMA200 (102)
HourlyStrong uptrend ↑67+ flatteningS 105.1 · R 109.3Resistance breakout
15-minStrong uptrend ↑49flatS 106.8 · R 109.3—
Confluence: Mostly→Strongly Bullish · MTF trend score ≈ 68

The monthly and weekly trends remain up; the daily turned down in the early-June gold flush to a $92.77 low (RSI 30) and is now rebounding hard — RSI back to 53, MACD histogram inflecting positive, and price has reclaimed the 200-day ($102) and the 20-day ($105). The decisive level is the 50-day at $110.70: a daily close above it on volume confirms the recovery and would satisfy the technical entry rule. Support convergence at $102–104 (SMA200 + swing low) is the high-probability buy zone; $92 is the line in the sand.

10

Price Chart (6-Month Daily)

Six months of daily closes with the 50-day SMA and 20-day Bollinger Bands overlaid, plus the key support/resistance levels. The visual tells the story: a January blow-off to $134.88, a grinding correction, an early-June capitulation to $92.77, and a sharp V-recovery back to $108.
11

Scenario Summary

Bull / Base / Bear 12-month price paths with explicit triggers and probability weights. The spread is wide because the path is gold-dependent — but note the asymmetry: the bear case still leaves Newmont highly cash-generative, while the bull re-rates it toward the Street's high.

Bull · 30%

$172
+59%. Gold re-rates toward the $5,000+ / January ATH on de-dollarisation + central-bank buying and an eventual Fed pivot; buyback compounds per-share value. Tracks the $175 Street high.

Base · 45%

$140
+29%. Gold stabilises $4,000–4,500; ~$2,400/oz margins drive record FCF; the valuation gap to consensus (median $140) closes. Trend-following base case.

Bear · 25%

$88
−19%. Real rates keep climbing / Fed hikes, risk-on rotation pulls capital out of gold toward $3,000–3,500; production step-down + rising AISC squeeze. Retests the $92 low.

Probability-weighted target ≈ $137 (0.30·172 + 0.45·140 + 0.25·88 ≈ $136.6), i.e. ~+26% over 12 months — and even the bear case keeps the company net-cash and FCF-positive.

12

Entry / Exit Rules

Mechanical conditions to enter and exit. Entries must satisfy multiple independent checks (fundamental, technical, blackout-clear, momentum); exits are governed by a hard stop, thesis invalidation and a profit-take. At $108.44, 2 of 4 entry criteria are met and 0 of 3 exit criteria are live.

Entry Rules — 2 / 4 met

MET  Rule 1 — Fundamental: price < fair value ~$135 (yes, $108.44) AND no earnings within 7 days (yes) AND Driver ≥ 50 (yes, 76). → Forecast: met now.
NOT MET  Rule 2 — Technical breakout: daily close > 50-day SMA $110.70 on volume >1.5× AND RSI 35–65 AND MACD histogram positive ≥2 days. → Forecast: ~1–2 weeks if the bounce holds — price is $2.30 (≈2%) below the 50-day and RSI/MACD already cooperate. Moderate.
NOT MET  Rule 3 — Event blackout clear: no high-impact macro event within 3 trading days. → Forecast: clears Jun 18, the trading day after the FOMC. High confidence (date-certain).
MET  Rule 4 — Momentum / RS turn: reclaim 200-day SMA $102 (yes) AND MACD histogram inflecting positive (yes, +0.29) AND outperforming the sector on the bounce (yes). → Met now.

Exit Rules — 0 / 3 live

CLEAR  Rule 1 — Hard stop: daily close < $92 (Jun-10 swing low) for 2 consecutive days. → 15% below; not triggered.
CLEAR  Rule 2 — Thesis invalidation: gold sustained toward ~$2,000/oz (margin collapse) OR full-year guidance cut AND Driver < 35. → Not triggered (gold ~$4,150, Driver 76).
CLEAR  Rule 3 — Profit-take: price ≥ median target $140 AND RSI > 70. → Not triggered ($108, RSI 53).
Key levels: Fair value ~$135 · Resistance $110.70 (SMA50) → $115 → $122 → $134.88 (ATH) · Support $102 (SMA200) → $98 → $92 · Hard stop $92 · Base target $140 · Bull $172.
Imagine you act at the current price $108.44 · as of Jun 16, 2026

What if you bought now?

You'd be risking −$16.44 (−15%) to the $92 stop to gain +$31.56 (+29%) to the $140 base target.
  • Risking: downside to the $92 hard stop (−15%); bear case $88 (−19%); plus you'd be buying below the 50-day (technical rule not yet met) and the day before the FOMC (blackout rule not yet clear).
  • Gaining: base $140 (+29%) and bull $172 (+59%) you start capturing immediately; ~10.7% FCF yield + 0.94% dividend working for you; copper, buyback-accretion and gold-re-rating optionality owned for free.
  • Net: risk-reward ≈ 1.9:1 to base, ~4:1 to bull. Assessment: the deal is good, but waiting one day for the FOMC to clear (then buying on a 50-day reclaim) materially improves the entry for little opportunity cost.

What if you sold now?

You'd be giving up +29% base upside to $140 to protect against the −19% bear path to $88.
  • Giving up: base-case upside to $140 (+29%); the ~10.7% FCF yield and embedded optionality; you'd be selling ~20% below fair value ~$135 and below every analyst target.
  • Protecting: capital if gold rolls over to the $88 bear case. Exit rules currently triggered? None — no stop, no thesis break, no profit-take.
  • Net: no mechanical reason to sell. This is a hold/accumulate zone, not an exit.
13

Position Sizing Context

A framework for translating conviction into allocation given risk-per-share and sector volatility — illustrative portfolio math, not advice.

No risk budget or portfolio role was provided for this batch run, so a specific position size is not computed. Volatility context for sizing: ATR ≈ $4.90 (~4.5% of price) — a wide daily range typical of a gold miner; 52-week range $55.37–$134.88 (the stock has already had multiple 10–25% drawdowns this year); equity beta 0.455 (low correlation to the S&P, but high sensitivity to gold). Because gold-miner returns are leveraged to the commodity, even a modest position carries gold-price risk well above its market beta. Staggered entry suits this setup: a first tranche on a post-FOMC 50-day reclaim, a second near $102 (SMA200), a third near $92 should the gold correction extend.

14

Calibration Snapshot

Machine-readable snapshot of every score, confidence, key level and signal override, saved alongside this HTML as calibration-NEM-20260616-1703.json so the next run can compute deltas and the watchlist monitor can trigger without parsing HTML. No prior calibration exists for NEM (the April v4 report has no JSON), so this is a fresh baseline — no "Changes Since Last Report" is rendered.
{
  "ticker": "NEM", "exchange_ticker": "NYSE:NEM", "isin": "US6516391066",
  "company": "Newmont Corporation", "date": "2026-06-16", "version": "v6",
  "analysis_status": "on-going", "finder_ticker": "NEM", "finder_exchange": "🇺🇸 NYSE", "section": "Gold Miners",
  "canadian_listing_note": "TSX:NGT unvalidated via data source; using US NYSE listing",
  "price_at_rating": 108.44,
  "signal_short": "WAIT_FOR_EVENT", "signal_medium": "STRONG_BUY", "signal_long": "STRONG_BUY",
  "quality_score": 74, "valuation_score": 76, "timing_score": 56,
  "driver_score": 76, "driver_label": "Tailwind",
  "economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following", "economic_alignment_conviction": 78,
  "economic_alignment_pressure": "Tailwind", "economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
  "macro_report_date": "2026-06-13",
  "lifecycle_stage": "cash_cow",
  "industry_benchmark_name": "AISC Margin (Mining)", "industry_benchmark_value": 60, "industry_benchmark_score": 92,
  "moat_score": 45, "fcf_yield": 10.7, "implied_growth_rate": 0, "consensus_growth_rate": 6,
  "historical_valuation_decile": 4,
  "relative_strength_vs_spy": -28.0, "relative_strength_vs_sector": -1.0,
  "catalyst_clustering_score": 52,
  "analyst_consensus_target": 143.33, "analyst_target_high": 175, "analyst_target_low": 111,
  "analyst_target_upside_pct": 32.2, "analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy", "analyst_bullish_pct": 75,
  "analyst_coverage_count": 36, "fmp_rating": "A-", "fmp_overall_score": 4,
  "recent_upgrades_30d": 0, "recent_downgrades_30d": 0,
  "overall_confidence": 62,
  "fair_value_est": 135, "stop_loss": 92, "target_price": 140,
  "hard_gate_state": "clear", "gates_triggered": [], "gates_caution": ["FOMC blackout (short-term)"], "do_not_buy_triggers": [],
  "entry_criteria_total": 4, "entry_criteria_met": 2,
  "exit_criteria_total": 3, "exit_criteria_met": 0,
  "next_update_date": "2026-06-18", "next_check_date": "2026-06-18",
  "next_update_basis": "FOMC 2026-06-17 +1d (high-impact, high-sensitivity sector)",
  "user_horizon": null, "user_allocation_pct": null, "portfolio_role": null
}
15

Data Sources & Methodology

Audit trail of every data source used, with OK / partial / fail indicators and the confidence haircuts applied. Consult this if a number looks off or to understand why confidence sits below the raw composite.
✓
get_company_profile — profile, ISIN, mkt cap, beta
✓
get_stock_snapshot — $108.44, +2.50%
✓
get_financial_ratios — margins, FCF, leverage
✓
get_income_statement — 6 quarters
✓
get_multi_timeframe_analysis — 5 timeframes incl. intraday
✓
get_stock_prices / get_technical_indicators — 125 daily bars
✓
get_price_target_consensus / _summary — 36 analysts
✓
get_grades_consensus / get_stock_grades — 27/9/0
✓
get_analyst_estimates — 2026–2030E EPS/rev
✓
get_ratings_snapshot — A−, 4/5
✓
get_economic_calendar / get_economic_series — FOMC, DGS10 4.47%
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get_polygon_news — 12 articles, sentiment
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get_earnings_calendar — empty for NEM; next date estimated ~late Jul from filing cadence
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Gold spot / AISC — web search (~$4,150/oz; AISC $1,680/oz guidance)
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TSX:NGT listing — no NGT.TO data; fell back to US NYSE:NEM (USD) per Canadian-fallback rule
Impact on scores: Driver confidence held at 62% (gold spot/AISC web-sourced, not MCP). Timing confidence 62% (FOMC within 7 days, high-sensitivity sector; next earnings date estimated). Quality/Valuation confidence high — full MCP coverage. The TSX:NGT fallback does not affect USD figures, which all come from the NYSE:NEM listing. Methodology: stock-analyst v6 — base Decision Matrix (Quality/Valuation/Timing) → amplification (Driver + Economic-Alignment pressure) → hard gates → Do-Not-Buy, computed per horizon.
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.