A summary of everything that’s moved since the prior report. The diff below compares this run against the 2026-07-20 MacroDriver state.
| Event | Date | Donatien | Consensus | Actual | Result | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOMC (Warsh) | Jul 29 | Hold; no Sep-cut green light | Hold; dovish lean | Held 3.50–3.75%; 3 hike-dissents; dots → hike | HIT | Hawkish (more than forecast) |
| US Q2 GDP (adv.) | Jul 30 | 1.8–2.2% ann. | ~2.0–2.1% | +1.5% ann. | HIT | −0.6pp vs consensus (soft edge) |
| US Flash PMI (Jul) | Jul 24 | Composite ≥51 | ~52 | 53.6 (8-mo high) | HIT | +1.6 vs consensus |
| Japan CPI + BOJ | Jul 25/31 | CPI firm; BOJ holds 1.0% | Hold | Pending — BOJ decision 31 Jul; carried in the ledger. | ||
| Core PCE / Jobs+Tariff / Iran | Jul 31–Aug 3 | Pending — outcomes after this run; carried in the forecast ledger. | ||||
MacroDriver translates live macro data into actionable market signals. It is built in layers — start at the top for the big picture, then drill into the sections most relevant to your decisions.
The evidence behind every signal — live indicators + 3-horizon forecasts.
| Driver | Dominance | Gold (GLD) | TIPS | Silver (SLV) | JPY / Safe FX | Defense (XAR) | Agriculture (DBA) | Oil (USO) | Copper / Ind Metals | EM Equities (EEM) | Long Treasuries (TLT) | USD (UUP) | US Equities (SPY) | US Tech (QQQ) | High Yield (HYG) | IG Credit (LQD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEMP Tariff War | CRITICAL (5) | ↑ +0.09 | ↑↑ +0.18 | ↑ +0.09 | ↑ +0.09 | ↑ +0.09 | ↑ +0.09 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.09 | ↓ -0.09 | ↑ +0.09 | ↓ -0.09 | ↓ -0.09 | ↓ -0.09 | ↓ -0.09 |
| TEMP Iran/Hormuz | CRITICAL (5) | ↑ +0.09 | ↑ +0.09 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.09 | ↑↑ +0.18 | ↑ +0.09 | ↑↑ +0.18 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.09 | ↓ -0.09 | ↑ +0.09 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 |
| END Monetary | CRITICAL (5) | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.09 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.09 | ↓ -0.09 | ↓↓ -0.18 | ↑ +0.09 | ↓ -0.09 | ↓↓ -0.18 | ↓ -0.09 | ↓ -0.09 |
| END US Econ | HIGH (4) | ↑ +0.07 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.07 | ↓ -0.07 | ↓ -0.07 | ↑ +0.07 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.07 | ↓ -0.07 | ↓ -0.07 | · +0.00 |
| END US Fiscal | HIGH (4) | ↑↑ +0.15 | ↑↑ +0.15 | ↑ +0.07 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.07 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.07 | · +0.00 | ↓↓ -0.15 | ↓ -0.07 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.07 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.07 |
| END AI & Prod | HIGH (4) | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.07 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.07 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.07 | ↑ +0.07 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 |
| END Private Credit | HIGH (4) | ↑ +0.07 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.07 | ↑ +0.07 | ↑ +0.07 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.07 | ↓↓ -0.15 | ↓ -0.07 |
| TEMP Japan/Yen | MODERATE (3) | ↑ +0.05 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↑↑ +0.11 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.05 | ↑ +0.05 | ↓ -0.05 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.05 | ↓ -0.05 | · +0.00 |
| TEMP El Niño | MODERATE (3) | ↑ +0.05 | ↑ +0.05 | ↑ +0.05 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↑↑ +0.11 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.05 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 |
| TEMP EM FX Stress | MODERATE (3) | ↑ +0.05 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.05 | ↓ -0.05 | ↑ +0.05 | ↑ +0.05 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.05 |
| END De-dollar | MODERATE (3) | ↑↑ +0.11 | ↑ +0.05 | ↑ +0.05 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.05 | ↓ -0.05 | ↓↓ -0.11 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 |
| END China | MODERATE (3) | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.05 | ↓ -0.05 | ↓ -0.05 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 |
| END Deglobal | MODERATE (3) | ↑ +0.05 | ↑ +0.05 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.05 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.05 | ↓ -0.05 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 |
| END Energy Trans | MODERATE (3) | ↑ +0.05 | · +0.00 | ↑↑ +0.11 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.05 | ↑↑ +0.11 | ↑ +0.05 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 |
| END NATO | MODERATE (3) | ↑ +0.05 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.05 | · +0.00 | ↑↑ +0.11 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.05 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 |
| NET SIGNAL | SO +0.91 | SO +0.67 | SO +0.51 | O +0.29 | SO +0.51 | O +0.29 | N +0.00 | N +0.09 | SU -0.58 | U -0.31 | N +0.16 | N -0.18 | U -0.47 | U -0.45 | U -0.38 |
| Driver | Dominance | Technology (XLK) | Financials (XLF) | Health Care (XLV) | Cons. Disc. (XLY) | Cons. Staples (XLP) | Energy (XLE) | Industrials (XLI) | Materials (XLB) | Utilities (XLU) | Real Estate (XLRE) | Comm. Svcs (XLC) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEMP Tariff War | CRITICAL (5) | ↓ -0.09 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.09 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.09 | ↑ +0.09 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.09 |
| TEMP Iran/Hormuz | CRITICAL (5) | ↓ -0.09 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.09 | ↓ -0.09 | ↑ +0.09 | ↑↑ +0.18 | ↑ +0.09 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.09 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.09 |
| END Monetary | CRITICAL (5) | ↓↓ -0.18 | ↑ +0.09 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.09 | ↑ +0.09 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.09 | ↓ -0.09 | ↓ -0.09 | ↓↓ -0.18 | ↓ -0.09 |
| END US Econ | HIGH (4) | ↓ -0.07 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.07 | ↓ -0.07 | ↑ +0.07 | ↓ -0.07 | ↓ -0.07 | ↓ -0.07 | ↑ +0.07 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.07 |
| END US Fiscal | HIGH (4) | ↓ -0.07 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.07 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.07 | ↑ +0.07 | ↑ +0.07 | ↓ -0.07 | ↓↓ -0.15 | ↓ -0.07 |
| END AI & Prod | HIGH (4) | ↑↑ +0.15 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.07 | ↑ +0.07 | ↑↑ +0.15 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 |
| END Private Credit | HIGH (4) | ↓ -0.07 | ↓↓ -0.15 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.07 | ↑ +0.07 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.07 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.07 | ↓↓ -0.15 | · +0.00 |
| TEMP Japan/Yen | MODERATE (3) | ↓ -0.05 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.05 | ↓ -0.05 | ↑ +0.05 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.05 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.05 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.05 |
| TEMP El Niño | MODERATE (3) | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.05 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.05 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.05 | ↑ +0.05 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 |
| TEMP EM FX Stress | MODERATE (3) | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.05 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.05 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 |
| END De-dollar | MODERATE (3) | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↑↑ +0.11 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 |
| END China | MODERATE (3) | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.05 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.05 | ↓ -0.05 | ↓ -0.05 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.05 |
| END Deglobal | MODERATE (3) | ↓ -0.05 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↑↑ +0.11 | ↑ +0.05 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 |
| END Energy Trans | MODERATE (3) | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.05 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.05 | ↑ +0.05 | ↑↑ +0.11 | ↑↑ +0.11 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 |
| END NATO | MODERATE (3) | ↑ +0.05 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↑↑ +0.11 | ↑ +0.05 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 |
| NET SIGNAL | U -0.49 | N -0.11 | N +0.22 | SU -0.60 | O +0.38 | N +0.13 | O +0.25 | O +0.35 | O +0.44 | U -0.47 | U -0.42 |
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Watch | Breach | Status | Asset Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Effective US tariff rate | ~17% | ↑ toward 20%+ if letters land | >10% avg | >20% avg | ● BREACH | Goods CPI ↑ · margins ↓ · EM exporters ↓ |
| Deadline / deal count | Aug 1 | → ~4 signed + China prelim; many un-dealt | deadline | broad snap-back | ● WATCH | Risk-off into month-end; retaliation tail |
| Selling-price inflation (PMI) | 14-mo high | ↑ steepest since Aug 2022 | rising | broadening | ● WATCH | TIPS ↑ · front-loads goods inflation |
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Watch | Breach | Status | Asset Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed funds target | 3.50–3.75% | → held; dots project a year-end hike | >4.50% over-tight | cut priced | ● WATCH | No cut = long-duration ↓, USD supported |
| 2Y Treasury | 4.22% | ↓ from 4.31% over the meeting (front-end rally) | >funds+50bp | ● WATCH | Front-end easing = tape leans dovish vs the dots | |
| 10Y Treasury | 4.67% | ↑ from 4.60%; curve steepened to +45bp | >4.50% | >5.0% | ● BREACH | TLT ↓ · growth-stock multiples ↓ |
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Watch | Breach | Status | Asset Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude (spot) | ~$90–91/bbl | ↑ +~8% on 29 Jul; topped $92 | >$85 | >$110 | ● BREACH | Energy CPI re-arming · XLE bid restored |
| Hormuz ship traffic | <10/day | → ~90% below normal; Red Sea now also threatened | disrupted | full closure | ● BREACH | Persistent, widening supply-risk premium |
| Conflict status | Strikes resumed | ↑ missiles at US bases + US “heavy wave” (29 Jul) | ceasefire | all-out war | ● BREACH | Risk of return to all-out war; risk-off tail |
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Watch | Breach | Status | Asset Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 GDP (advance) | +1.5% | ↓ from Q1 +2.1%; below 2.1% consensus | <2.0% | <0.0% | ● WATCH | Cyclicals ↓ · defensives ↑ if it bites |
| Unemployment | 4.2% | → firm (Jun) | >4.5% | >5.5% | ● OK | Labour is the swing; a break flips the tail |
| Flash composite PMI | 53.6 | ↑ 8-month high | <50 | <48 | ● OK | Survey resilience keeps Reaccel alive |
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Watch | Breach | Status | Asset Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10Y Treasury | 4.67% | ↑ toward the vigilante zone | >4.50% | >5.50% | ● WATCH | TLT ↓ · XLRE ↓ · mortgage rates ↑ |
| Yield curve (10Y−2Y) | +45bp | ↑ bear-steepening | dis-inverting | >+100bp | ● WATCH | Term-premium rebuild = long bonds ↓ |
| Federal deficit | >7% GDP | → heavy issuance | >7% | >10% | ● BREACH | Supply pressure on the long end |
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Watch | Breach | Status | Asset Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top-10 index weight | ~41% | ↑ worse than the 2000 peak (~27%) | >35% | >45% | ● BREACH | No diversification cushion in cap-weighted beta |
| Breadth (RSP vs SPY) | RSP flat, SPY +1.7% | ↓ leadership snapped narrow on earnings | SPY>RSP | persistent | ● WATCH | Narrow rally = fragile; falsifier is broadening |
| AI share of profit growth | ~44% | → hyperscaler-concentrated | >40% | ● WATCH | Earnings support is single-factor (AI capex) |
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Watch | Breach | Status | Asset Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Direct-lending default rate | ~6% | ↑ MS warns toward 8% | >5% | >8% | ● WATCH | HY/IG spreads ↑ if it leaks to public credit |
| BDC flows | 1st-ever outflow | ↓ redemption gates on $10bn+ | gating | cascade | ● WATCH | Liquidity signal; XLF/XLRE at risk |
| HY spread (HYG proxy) | contained | → no acute stress yet | OAS>500bp | ● OK | Public credit is the leading tell — still calm |
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Watch | Breach | Status | Asset Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPY (FXY proxy) | +2.6%/day | ↑ sharp; watch >3%/week | >3%/wk | disorderly | ● WATCH | Unwind hits QQQ/EEM/HY if it accelerates |
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Watch | Breach | Status | Asset Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niño 3.4 SST anomaly | >+1.5°C | ↑ NOAA: 63% chance >+2.0°C | +1.5°C | +2.0°C | ● WATCH | Ag commodities ↑ · food CPI ↑ · EM growth ↓ |
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Watch | Breach | Status | Asset Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CB gold demand (Q1) | 244 t | ↑ +3% YoY, above 5-yr avg | >1000 t/yr | >1200 t/yr | ● WATCH | Structural, price-insensitive gold bid |
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Watch | Breach | Status | Asset Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China Q2 GDP | 4.3% | ↓ slowest since Q4-2022 | <4.5% | <4.0% | ● WATCH | Copper/EM demand capped; AI exports offset |
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Watch | Breach | Status | Asset Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silver market balance | 6th-yr deficit | → ~46 Moz; 762 Moz drawn since 2021 | >150 Moz | >250 Moz | ● WATCH | Structural floor under SLV and copper |
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Watch | Breach | Status | Asset Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Europe+Canada defense (2026) | ~$634bn | ↑ +20% YoY, 2.53% GDP | >3% GDP | 5% target | ● WATCH | Defense & metals-intensive industrials bid |
| Asset Class | Short (0–4w) | Medium (1–6m) | Long (6–18m) | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (GLD) | O | SO | SO | Central-bank buying + fiscal debasement + safe-haven; no-cut real-rate relief lifted it +1.6% today, near record. |
| TIPS | O | SO | SO | Inflation firming (Aug-1 tariffs, PMI selling prices at a 14-mo high) + a real-asset / fiscal bid. |
| Silver (SLV) | O | SO | SO | 6th consecutive supply deficit + electrification demand; +3.3% today (SLV $53.5) as real rates relented. |
| JPY / Safe FX | O | O | O | BOJ tightening bias + crowded short-yen unwind risk + safe-FX demand; FXY +2.6% today. |
| Defense (XAR) | SO | SO | SO | NATO 5%-by-2035 + the live Gulf conflict + reshoring; XAR near its highs (+1.8% today). |
| Agriculture (DBA) | O | O | O | NEW El Niño supply risk + tariff/food-security + a fiscal-inflation hedge. |
| Oil (USO) | SO | N | U | Iran re-escalated 29 Jul (fresh US strikes, missiles at US bases, Red-Sea/pipeline supply shocks); Brent back ~$90–92, WTI ~$84 — a large near-term supply premium; long fades on demand erosion. (USO ETF $127 ≠ spot.) |
| Copper / Ind Metals | N | N | O | China soft (Q2 4.3%, no broad stimulus) caps the near term; electrification / grid / datacenter power demand drives the long. |
| EM Equities (EEM) | U | SU | N | Aug-1 tariff threat + higher-for-longer USD weigh; bounced +4.1% today on a softer dollar; de-dollarisation / energy-transition support the long. |
| Long Treasuries (TLT) | U | U | N | 10Y at 4.67% and rising, no Fed cut priced, heavy issuance; long fades to Neutral only as growth cools. |
| USD (UUP) | N | N | U | Rate-differential and tariff support vs today’s −1% and the easing tape; the long is the debasement Underperform. |
| US Equities (SPY) | N | N | N | At record highs on the MSFT/AI rip, but ~41% top-10 concentration and rich valuation offset — a Neutral with a fat single-factor caveat. |
| US Tech (QQQ) | N | U | O | MSFT/AI momentum near-term; rate + concentration drag medium; the AI capex/productivity story is the structural long. |
| High Yield (HYG) | U | U | N | Private-credit stress (defaults ~6%, BDC gates) + higher-for-longer; public spreads still contained (short reprieve). |
| IG Credit (LQD) | N | U | N | Front-end rates stabilising vs private-credit spillover risk and a firm long end; a cautious Neutral-to-Underperform. |
| Sector | Short (0–4w) | Medium (1–6m) | Long (6–18m) | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology (XLK) | N | U | O | MSFT/AI lift the near term; rate + record concentration drag the medium; the AI capex story is the structural long. |
| Financials (XLF) | N | N | N | A steeper curve / NIM helps, offset by credit-cycle and private-credit exposure — Neutral across. |
| Health Care (XLV) | N | N | O | Genuine defensive appeal (rate-insensitive, cooling growth), but today’s risk-on rotation caps it; demographics support the long. |
| Cons. Disc. (XLY) | U | SU | U | Tariffs + a cooling consumer + El-Niño food inflation + soft China luxury — the clearest sector Underperform. |
| Cons. Staples (XLP) | O | O | N | Defensive rotation on cooling growth and higher-for-longer, though it sold off hard in today’s risk-on tape. |
| Energy (XLE) | O | N | N | Iran de-escalation bleeds the oil premium (Brent off ~$90); the short SO cools to Outperform, medium Neutral. |
| Industrials (XLI) | O | O | SO | Reshoring + NATO defense + AI-infrastructure capex; the capex cycle is the long-term Strong-Outperform. |
| Materials (XLB) | O | O | SO | De-dollarisation (gold) + electrification (copper/silver) + El-Niño ag (CF sits here); China-demand soft short. |
| Utilities (XLU) | O | O | SO | AI-datacenter power demand + grid capex + electrification — the standout structural long; rate-sensitive near-term. |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | U | U | U | 10Y at 4.67% and rising plus private-credit CRE exposure — Underperform across the board. |
| Comm. Svcs (XLC) | U | U | N | META (−9%) + mega-cap ad/concentration risk drag it; NTES (China gaming) decouples up as a domestic-demand name. |
| Ticker | Sector (parent) | Short | Medium | Long | Idiosyncratic macro rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF CF Industries · US | Materials (XLB) parent O / O / SO | O | O | N | Inherits Materials, then adjusts for nitrogen-fertilizer specifics: the NEW El Niño + food-security tailwind and firm global nitrogen prices lift realisations (a two-sided energy shock — a US Henry-Hub feedstock spike is the cost-side risk, but this shock is oil-led and easing). A current Portfolio-Watchlist short-BUY (Full-Size, ~27% bull upside). Long fades to Neutral as cyclical fertilizer margins normalise. |
| NTES NetEase · China | Comm. Services (XLC) parent U / U / N | O | O | O | Inherits Comm. Services but decouples up: a China domestic-demand gaming compounder, cheap (~12× forward), cash-rich with a buyback/dividend, insulated from the US mega-cap ad weakness (META) and from direct Aug-1 tariff hit, and a potential China-stimulus beneficiary. +1.8% today; a current Portfolio-Watchlist short-BUY (Full-Size, ~27% bull upside), strong-buy street consensus. |
PortfolioWatchlist-state-20260727): CF (Materials·US) and NTES (Comm. Services·US listing, China). The 20 Jul 7-name macro set has been superseded by this grid rebuild.| Asset | Flow | Money | Conf | Short | Med | Long | Key Drivers | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ Part A — Inflows | ||||||||
| Gold (GLD) | ↑↑ | Real Fast | High | IN | IN | IN | Fiscal×4De-dollar×3Safe-haven | CB structural buying + fiscal debasement + no-cut real-rate relief; +1.6% today, near record. |
| TIPS | ↑↑ | Real | High | IN | IN | IN | Tariff×5Fiscal×4 | Tariff + PMI selling-price inflation (14-mo high) + real-asset bid. |
| Silver (SLV) | ↑ | Real Fast | Medium | IN | IN | IN | EnergyTrans×3De-dollar×3 | 6th-year physical deficit + electrification; +3.3% today as real rates relented. |
| Defense (XAR) | ↑ | Real | High | IN | IN | IN | NATO×3Iran×4 | NATO 5% capex + live Gulf conflict; near highs. |
| Agriculture (DBA) | ↑ | Real Fast | Medium | IN | IN | IN | El Niño×3Tariff×5 | NEW El Niño supply risk + food-security/tariff inflation. |
| JPY / Safe FX | ↑ | Fast | Medium | IN | IN | — | Japan carry×3Safe-haven | BOJ tightening bias + crowded-short unwind risk; +2.6% today. |
| ▼ Part B — Outflows | ||||||||
| EM Equities (EEM) | ↓ | Real Fast | Medium | OUT | OUT | — | Tariff×5Monetary×5 | Aug-1 tariff threat + higher-for-longer USD; the +4% bounce today is a fast-money reprieve, not a real-money turn. |
| Long Treasuries (TLT) | ↓↓ | Real Fast | High | OUT | OUT | — | Fiscal×4Monetary×5 | 10Y 4.67% and rising + heavy issuance + no cut priced; the bear-steepener. |
| High Yield (HYG) | ↓ | Real Fast | Medium | OUT | OUT | — | PrivCredit×4Monetary×5 | Private-credit stress (defaults ~6%, BDC gates) + higher-for-longer; public spreads still contained. |
| US Tech (QQQ) | ↓ | Real | Medium | — | OUT | IN | Monetary×5Concentration | Real money trimming record single-factor concentration medium-term; the AI capex long re-asserts. |
| IG Credit (LQD) | ↓ | Real | Medium | — | OUT | OUT | Fiscal×4PrivCredit×4 | Firm long end + private-credit spillover risk outweigh carry. |
| Sector | Flow | Money | Conf | Short | Med | Long | Key Drivers | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ Part A — Sectors receiving inflows (overweight) | ||||||||
| Materials (XLB) | ↑ | Real | High | IN | IN | IN | De-dollar×3EnergyTrans×3El Niño×3 | Gold + copper/silver electrification + El-Niño ag — CF sits here. |
| Utilities (XLU) | ↑ | Real | High | — | IN | IN | AI power×4EnergyTrans×3 | AI-datacenter power demand + grid capex; rate-sensitive near-term, structural long. |
| Industrials (XLI) | ↑ | Real | Medium | IN | IN | IN | NATO×3Deglob×3 | Reshoring + defense + AI-infrastructure capex. |
| Cons. Staples (XLP) | ↑ | Real | Medium | IN | IN | — | US Econ×4Monetary×5 | Defensive rotation on cooling growth + higher-for-longer (despite today’s risk-on sell-off). |
| Financials (XLF) | ↑ | Real Fast | Medium | IN | IN | — | Monetary×5 | A steeper curve helps NIM; capped by credit-cycle and private-credit risk. |
| ▼ Part B — Sectors seeing outflows (underweight) | ||||||||
| Real Estate (XLRE) | ↓ | Real Fast | High | OUT | OUT | OUT | Fiscal×4PrivCredit×4 | 10Y 4.67% rising + CRE private-credit financing exposure. |
| Cons. Disc. (XLY) | ↓ | Fast | Medium | OUT | OUT | — | Tariff×5US Econ×4 | Tariff + cooling consumer + El-Niño food inflation. |
| Comm. Svcs (XLC) | ↓ | Real Fast | Medium | OUT | OUT | — | AI concentrationMonetary×5 | META (−9%) + mega-cap ad concentration — but NTES (China gaming) decouples up. |
| Technology (XLK) | ↓ | Real | Medium | — | OUT | IN | Monetary×5Concentration | Rate + concentration drag medium; AI capex re-asserts long. MSFT-led rip is narrow. |
| Driver pair | Interaction | Primary / Channel | Double-count guard |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran/Hormuz ↔ Monetary Policy | The energy premium is an inflation impulse that keeps the Fed from cutting. | Iran = source; Monetary = channel | The oil-inflation impulse is counted once (in Iran); Monetary carries only the rate-path response. |
| Tariff War ↔ Deglobalisation | The Aug-1 tariff shock is the acute expression of the structural deglobalisation trend. | Tariff (temp) = acute; Deglob = structural | Deglobalisation is held quiet this run (dominance 3, minimal impacts) so the near-term impulse is not counted twice. |
| Monetary Policy ↔ US Fiscal | Both push long yields, but via different curve segments. | Monetary = front end; Fiscal = term premium | Separated by curve segment — Monetary owns the 2Y, Fiscal owns the 10Y/30Y term premium. |
| AI & Productivity ↔ Monetary Policy | Tech’s rate sensitivity vs its AI-capex tailwind. | AI = primary tech driver; Monetary = discount-rate overlay | AI owns the capex/earnings signal; Monetary owns only the duration/multiple effect. |
| Private Credit ↔ US Economic Health | A growth drag accelerates private-credit defaults. | US Econ = trigger; Private Credit = amplifier | Growth is scored in US Econ; Private Credit scores only the credit-transmission, not the growth slowdown itself. |
| EM FX Stress ↔ Tariff + Japan Carry | USD, tariff and carry channels all pressure EM. | Tariff/Japan = sources; EM FX = net-new channel | EM FX Stress (now Background 2) is scoped only to the external-debt/capital-flight residual not already in the tariff or carry drivers. |
| De-dollarisation ↔ US Fiscal | Both bid gold, from distinct sources. | Fiscal = domestic debasement; De-dollar = reserve diversification | Additive but distinct demand sources; the gold signal reflects both without either being duplicated. |
{
"run_date": "2026-07-30",
"next_update_date": "2026-08-03",
"next_update_basis": "Core PCE (31 Jul) + Aug-1 tariff deadline, +1 trading day (Mon 3 Aug) \u2014 the cluster that re-rates the regime: the inflation read and whether the tariff wall actually lands, with the ISMs and jobs right behind.",
"dominant_regime": "Stagflation-lite \u2014 energy shock re-armed (Iran re-escalation) + policy-tight into cooling growth; narrow, contested, tape-unconfirmed lead",
"scenarios": {
"Stagflation": {
"probability": 40
},
"Soft Landing": {
"probability": 24
},
"Reacceleration": {
"probability": 20
},
"Deflationary Bust": {
"probability": 16
}
},
"total_active_dominance": 55,
"drivers": [
{
"name": "Tariff War \u2014 Aug 1 Escalation",
"type": "temp",
"dominance": 5,
"dominance_label": "CRITICAL"
},
{
"name": "Iran / Hormuz Crisis",
"type": "temp",
"dominance": 5,
"dominance_label": "CRITICAL"
},
{
"name": "Global Monetary Policy",
"type": "end",
"dominance": 5,
"dominance_label": "CRITICAL"
},
{
"name": "US Economic Health",
"type": "end",
"dominance": 4,
"dominance_label": "HIGH"
},
{
"name": "US Fiscal Trajectory & Sovereign Debt",
"type": "end",
"dominance": 4,
"dominance_label": "HIGH"
},
{
"name": "AI & Productivity Revolution",
"type": "end",
"dominance": 4,
"dominance_label": "HIGH"
},
{
"name": "Private Credit & Shadow Banking Stress",
"type": "end",
"dominance": 4,
"dominance_label": "HIGH"
},
{
"name": "Japan / Yen Carry-Trade Unwind",
"type": "temp",
"dominance": 3,
"dominance_label": "MODERATE"
},
{
"name": "Super El Ni\u00f1o",
"type": "temp",
"dominance": 3,
"dominance_label": "MODERATE"
},
{
"name": "EM Currency Stress (USD / Iran shock)",
"type": "temp",
"dominance": 3,
"dominance_label": "MODERATE"
},
{
"name": "De-dollarisation & Monetary Geopolitics",
"type": "end",
"dominance": 3,
"dominance_label": "MODERATE"
},
{
"name": "China Economic Health",
"type": "end",
"dominance": 3,
"dominance_label": "MODERATE"
},
{
"name": "Structural Deglobalisation & Trade",
"type": "end",
"dominance": 3,
"dominance_label": "MODERATE"
},
{
"name": "Energy Transition & Electrification",
"type": "end",
"dominance": 3,
"dominance_label": "MODERATE"
},
{
"name": "NATO Rearmament & Global Defense",
"type": "end",
"dominance": 3,
"dominance_label": "MODERATE"
}
],
"asset_class_forecast": {
"Gold": {
"short": "O",
"medium": "SO",
"long": "SO"
},
"TIPS": {
"short": "O",
"medium": "SO",
"long": "SO"
},
"Silver": {
"short": "O",
"medium": "SO",
"long": "SO"
},
"JPY / Safe FX": {
"short": "O",
"medium": "O",
"long": "O"
},
"Defense": {
"short": "SO",
"medium": "SO",
"long": "SO"
},
"Agriculture": {
"short": "O",
"medium": "O",
"long": "O"
},
"Oil": {
"short": "SO",
"medium": "N",
"long": "U"
},
"Copper / Ind Metals": {
"short": "N",
"medium": "N",
"long": "O"
},
"EM Equities": {
"short": "U",
"medium": "SU",
"long": "N"
},
"Long Treasuries": {
"short": "U",
"medium": "U",
"long": "N"
},
"USD": {
"short": "N",
"medium": "N",
"long": "U"
},
"US Equities": {
"short": "N",
"medium": "N",
"long": "N"
},
"US Tech": {
"short": "N",
"medium": "U",
"long": "O"
},
"High Yield": {
"short": "U",
"medium": "U",
"long": "N"
},
"IG Credit": {
"short": "N",
"medium": "U",
"long": "N"
}
},
"sector_forecast": {
"XLK": {
"short": "N",
"medium": "U",
"long": "O"
},
"XLF": {
"short": "N",
"medium": "N",
"long": "N"
},
"XLV": {
"short": "N",
"medium": "N",
"long": "O"
},
"XLY": {
"short": "U",
"medium": "SU",
"long": "U"
},
"XLP": {
"short": "O",
"medium": "O",
"long": "N"
},
"XLE": {
"short": "O",
"medium": "N",
"long": "N"
},
"XLI": {
"short": "O",
"medium": "O",
"long": "SO"
},
"XLB": {
"short": "O",
"medium": "O",
"long": "SO"
},
"XLU": {
"short": "O",
"medium": "O",
"long": "SO"
},
"XLRE": {
"short": "U",
"medium": "U",
"long": "U"
},
"XLC": {
"short": "U",
"medium": "U",
"long": "N"
}
},
"watchlist_forecast": {
"CF": {
"short": "O",
"medium": "O",
"long": "N",
"sector": "Materials (XLB)",
"reason": "El Ni\u00f1o + food-security tailwind + firm nitrogen; long fades as fertilizer margins normalise."
},
"NTES": {
"short": "O",
"medium": "O",
"long": "O",
"sector": "Communication Services (XLC)",
"reason": "China gaming, cheap (~12x fwd), decouples up from US mega-cap ad weakness; domestic-demand + stimulus beneficiary."
}
},
"tail_risks": [
{
"name": "S&P 500 concentration / AI earnings-quality unwind",
"status": "armed",
"breadth_tell": "top-10 ~41% of index; RSP flat while MSFT/XLK ripped +5.5% on 29-30 Jul (narrow)",
"trigger": "AI private markdown / hyperscaler capex guide-down / non-operating gains negative"
},
{
"name": "Iran/Hormuz re-escalation",
"status": "live",
"breadth_tell": "RE-ESCALATED 29 Jul: IRGC missiles at US bases in Jordan + US heavy-wave strikes; conflict widened to Red Sea (Houthi) + Caspian pipeline; Brent back ~$90-92 (+8%); Hormuz <10 ships/day",
"trigger": "escalation toward all-out war -> oil spike + risk-off; or a verified ceasefire de-escalates"
},
{
"name": "Private-credit crack",
"status": "building",
"breadth_tell": "defaults ~6% (MS warns 8%); first BDC net outflow; $10bn+ redemption gates; public HY spreads still contained",
"trigger": "major fund gate / large write-down"
}
],
"new_driver_candidates": [
"Super El Nino (activated this run, Moderate 3)"
],
"date": "2026-07-30",
"confidence": "Low-Medium",
"prior_regime": "Stagflation-lite \u2014 energy-supply-shock driven; narrow contested lead"
}