A summary of everything that's moved since the 26 Jun report. This 3-Jul run is baselined against 26 Jun (not the earlier same-day intraday version it replaces).
| Event | Date | Boris | Consensus | Actual | Result | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US CB Consumer Confidence (Jun) | Jun 30 | 94.5 modest improvement | ~94.4 | 91.2 | MISS | Inched up only 0.6 to 91.2 vs Boris 94.5 — level miss; Present Situation fell 3.0pts. |
| China NBS Manufacturing PMI (Jun) | Jun 30 | 50.2 scrapes expansion | 50.1 | 50.3 | HIT | 50.3, 3rd straight expansion on AI-linked high-tech exports; Boris nearer than consensus. |
| Eurozone CPI Flash YoY (Jun) | Jul 1 | 3.0% in line | 3.0% | 2.8% | MISS | Fell to 2.8% (energy 8.7%, services 3.2%) — a downside disinflation surprise. |
| US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) | Jul 1 | 53.8 | 53.6 | 53.3 | MISS | 53.3 below both; prices paid fell hard (73 vs 82) — disinflationary. |
| US Non-Farm Payrolls + Unemployment (Jun) — REGIME TEST | Jul 2 | NFP +115k / 4.4% | +90k / 4.5% | +57k / 4.2% | MISS | NFP +57k far below Boris; reaccel refuted. BUT unemployment FELL to 4.2% and JOLTs beat (7.594) — labour is mixed, not a clean dovish signal. |
MacroDriver Weekly translates live macro data into actionable market signals. It is built in layers — start at the top for the big picture, then drill into the sections most relevant to your decisions.
The four scenarios, their probabilities and the pivot that moved them — plus the index-level tail risk.
Every driver's weighted push across 15 asset classes, with the net signal row.
The same cascade across the 11 GICS sectors — the level equities actually rotate at.
| Driver | Dominance | Gold | TIPS | Silver | JPY | Defense | Agri | Oil | Copper | EM Eq | Long Tsy | USD | US Eq | US Tech | High Yield | IG Credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENDUS Economic Health | High (4) | ↓ -0.11 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.11 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.11 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.11 | ↑ +0.11 | ↑ +0.11 | ↑ +0.11 | ↑ +0.11 | · +0.00 |
| ENDGlobal Monetary Policy | High (4) | ↓ -0.11 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.11 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.11 | ↓ -0.11 | ↓ -0.11 | ↑ +0.11 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.11 | ↓ -0.11 | · +0.00 |
| ENDPrivate Credit & Shadow Banking | High (4) | ↑ +0.11 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.11 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.11 | ↑ +0.11 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.11 | ↓ -0.11 | ↓↓ -0.22 | ↓ -0.11 |
| ENDUS Fiscal Trajectory | High (4) | ↑ +0.11 | ↑ +0.11 | ↑ +0.11 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.11 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↓↓ -0.22 | ↓ -0.11 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.11 | ↓ -0.11 |
| ENDDe-dollarisation | Moderate (3) | ↑↑ +0.16 | ↑ +0.08 | ↑ +0.08 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.08 | · +0.00 | ↓↓ -0.16 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 |
| ENDChina Economic Health | Moderate (3) | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.08 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.08 | ↑ +0.08 | ↑↑ +0.16 | ↑ +0.08 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 |
| ENDAI & Productivity | Moderate (3) | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.08 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.08 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.08 | ↑↑ +0.16 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 |
| ENDEnergy Transition | Moderate (3) | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↑↑ +0.16 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.08 | ↑↑ +0.16 | ↑ +0.08 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 |
| ENDStructural Deglobalisation | Moderate (3) | ↑ +0.08 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.08 | ↑ +0.08 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.08 | ↓ -0.08 | ↓ -0.08 | ↑ +0.08 | ↓ -0.08 | ↓ -0.08 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 |
| ENDNATO Rearmament | Moderate (3) | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.08 | · +0.00 | ↑↑ +0.16 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.08 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.08 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 |
| TEMPJapan / Yen Carry Unwind | Background (2) | ↑ +0.05 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↑↑ +0.11 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.05 | ↑ +0.05 | ↓ -0.05 | ↓ -0.05 | ↓ -0.05 | ↓ -0.05 | · +0.00 |
| TEMPIran / Hormuz Crisis | Dormant (1) | ↑ +0.03 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.03 | · +0.00 | ↑↑ +0.05 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.03 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.03 | ↓ -0.03 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 |
| NET SIGNAL | Σ dom = 37 | O +0.32 | N +0.19 | O +0.38 | N +0.22 | O +0.38 | N +0.16 | N +0.16 | O +0.46 | N -0.14 | U -0.35 | N +0.00 | N -0.08 | N +0.00 | U -0.38 | N -0.22 |
| Driver | Dominance | Technology | Financials | Health Care | Discretionary | Staples | Energy | Industrials | Materials | Utilities | Real Estate | Comm Svcs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENDUS Economic Health | High (4) | ↑ +0.11 | ↑ +0.11 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.11 | ↓ -0.11 | ↑ +0.11 | ↑ +0.11 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.11 | ↑ +0.11 |
| ENDGlobal Monetary Policy | High (4) | ↓ -0.11 | ↑ +0.11 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.11 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.11 | ↓ -0.11 | ↓ -0.11 | · +0.00 |
| ENDPrivate Credit & Shadow Banking | High (4) | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.11 | ↓ -0.11 | ↑ +0.11 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.11 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.11 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 |
| ENDUS Fiscal Trajectory | High (4) | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.11 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.11 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 |
| ENDDe-dollarisation | Moderate (3) | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.08 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 |
| ENDChina Economic Health | Moderate (3) | ↑ +0.08 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.08 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.08 | ↑ +0.08 | ↑↑ +0.16 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 |
| ENDAI & Productivity | Moderate (3) | ↑↑ +0.16 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.08 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.08 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.08 | · +0.00 | ↑↑ +0.16 |
| ENDEnergy Transition | Moderate (3) | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.08 | ↑ +0.08 | ↑↑ +0.16 | ↑↑ +0.16 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 |
| ENDStructural Deglobalisation | Moderate (3) | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.08 | ↑ +0.08 | ↑ +0.08 | ↑ +0.08 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 |
| ENDNATO Rearmament | Moderate (3) | ↑ +0.08 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↑↑ +0.16 | ↑ +0.08 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 |
| TEMPJapan / Yen Carry Unwind | Background (2) | ↓ -0.05 | ↓ -0.05 | ↑ +0.05 | ↓ -0.05 | ↑ +0.05 | · +0.00 | ↓ -0.05 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.05 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 |
| TEMPIran / Hormuz Crisis | Dormant (1) | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | ↑ +0.03 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 | · +0.00 |
| NET SIGNAL | Σ dom = 37 | O +0.27 | O +0.27 | N +0.24 | N -0.19 | N +0.14 | N +0.22 | O +0.43 | O +0.46 | O +0.30 | N -0.22 | O +0.27 |
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Watch | Breach | Status | Asset Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun) | +57k | ↓ far below +110k cons / +115k Boris — private only +49k | <+100k | <0 (contraction) | ● BREACH | Reaccel-on-top refuted, but tape refuses cuts (2Y > funds, USD firm) — regime contested; gold near-term ↓, USD ↑ |
| Unemployment / U-6 | 4.2% / 7.9% | ↓ fell 0.2 — but household survey / participation-driven, not the growth signal | >4.5% | >5.0% | ● WATCH | The one print against the slowdown; establishment payrolls override it |
| ISM Mfg + Prices Paid | 53.3 / 73 | ↓ 53.3 below 53.6 cons; prices 73 vs 82 — disinflationary cooling | <50 | <48 | ● OK | Growth easing with falling input costs — the soft-landing texture |
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Watch | Breach | Status | Asset Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds / 2Y UST | 3.63% / 4.17% | ↓ 2Y richening as cut odds rebuild post-jobs | 2Y <4.0% | 2Y <3.75% | ● WATCH | Front-end rally = bull-steepener; rate-cut beneficiaries ↑ |
| Eurozone CPI (flash) | 2.8% | ↓ below 3.0% cons — energy 8.7% vs 10.8%, services 3.2% | <2.5% | <2.0% | ● OK | Global disinflation broadening — supports coordinated easing |
| FOMC Minutes (Jun 17) | Jul 8 | → split expected; labour softening noted, but the cut bar stays high | hawkish hold | re-hike talk | ● WATCH | A dovish surprise would lift Sep-cut odds (gold/EM ↑, USD ↓); a cautious read keeps the USD firm |
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Watch | Breach | Status | Asset Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public HY spread / HYG | No blowout | → spreads contained; no public-market contagion yet | OAS >500bp | OAS >650bp | ● OK | Calm public credit refutes Deflationary Bust — breadth also broadening |
| Redemption pressure | Rising | ↑ nonbank/BDC redemption queues building as labour softens | gate news | major fund gate | ● WATCH | Consumer-credit lenders (SOFI) pressured short; XLF ↓ |
| Shadow-bank leverage | Elevated | ↑ bank lending to nonbanks near record — leverage-on-leverage | — | forced deleverage | ● WATCH | Systemic linkage via insurers; tail risk not base case |
| Indicator | Value | Trend | Watch | Breach | Status | Asset Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10Y Treasury Yield | 4.48% | → long end sticky on supply while 2Y rallies | >4.75% | >5.0% | ● WATCH | Long-duration capped; debasement bid to gold/TIPS |
| 2s10s Curve | +0.35 | ↑ steepening — classic bull-steepener as cuts get priced | >+0.60 | >+1.0% | ● WATCH | Front-end/2Y wins; TLT Neutral not Outperform |
| Deficit / coupon supply | >6% GDP | ↑ heavy issuance keeps term premium elevated | auction tails | failed auction | ● WATCH | Structural debasement hedge — gold, silver, TIPS ↑ |
| Asset Class | Short 0–4w | Med 1–6m | Long 6–18m | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Assets & Commodities | ||||
| Gold (GLD) | U | N | O | Live downtrend (−8% mo, below the 50-DMA) + firm USD + rising real yields cap the short horizon; CB accumulation, de-dollar and debasement reassert medium/long. A close back above the 50-DMA (~$390 GLD) flips short to Neutral. |
| Silver (SLV) | U | N | O | −19% off the June peak — industrial and precious both hit near-term (U); the structural solar/EV/grid deficit reasserts medium/long. |
| Copper | N | O | SO | −7% on the month with a firm USD caps short (N); China PMI 50.3 + electrification/grid demand build medium (O) to strong long (SO). |
| Oil (USO) | N | N | N | Risk premium gone (WTI ~$67, Hormuz open); demand-neutral. |
| Agri (DBA) | N | N | N | No dominant driver; Neutral. |
| Equities | ||||
| US Eq (SPY) | N | N | N | Index churns; breadth broadening (RSP fresh high) offsets mega-cap; Neutral. |
| US Tech (QQQ) | N | N | O | Neutral short as leadership widens; AI capex restores the bid long. |
| EM Eq (EEM) | N | N | O | Firm USD + EM risk-off (EEM −7.7%) cap short/medium (N); structural EM and an eventual USD roll-over support long (O). |
| Defense (XAR) | O | O | O | Structural rearmament capex; Outperform. |
| Rates & Credit | ||||
| TIPS | N | N | O | Rising real yields cap the short-horizon bid; the fiscal/debasement inflation hedge reasserts long. |
| Long Tsy (TLT) | U | N | N | Bear-steepener with the 10Y rising to 4.48% pressures the long end short (U); no cut path to rescue duration; Neutral thereafter. |
| High Yield (HYG) | U | N | N | Private-credit overhang + spread risk pressure short (U); normalises medium/long. |
| IG Credit (LQD) | N | N | N | Balanced; Neutral. |
| FX | ||||
| USD (UUP) | O | N | U | Firm dollar (+2% mo) + higher-for-longer rate differential support short (O); de-dollarisation and fiscal erosion weigh long (U). |
| JPY | N | N | N | Firm USD caps the safe-FX bid near-term; BOJ-normalisation / carry-unwind risk keeps it Neutral. |
| Sector | Short 0–4w | Med 1–6m | Long 6–18m | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology (XLK) | O | O | O | AI capex leadership; breadth broadening keeps it Outperform. |
| Financials (XLF) | O | O | N | Bank rally (+3.7% into month-end) on a steeper curve + higher-for-longer NIM; Outperform short/medium, Neutral long as the curve normalises (SOFI, DLO sit here). |
| Health Care (XLV) | N | N | N | Defensive balance; Neutral. |
| Cons. Discretionary (XLY) | N | N | N | Mixed consumer — jobs soft but JOLTS firm and unemployment fell to 4.2%; Neutral. |
| Cons. Staples (XLP) | N | N | N | Steady defensive; Neutral. |
| Energy (XLE) | N | N | N | Oil premium gone; Neutral. |
| Industrials (XLI) | O | O | SO | Reshoring + defense + electrification; Outperform, SO long. |
| Materials (XLB) | N | O | SO | Metals downtrend caps short (N); de-dollar + China + copper/electrification build medium (O) to strong long (SO) (MNO.TO sits here). |
| Utilities (XLU) | O | O | O | Power-demand/electrification bid outweighs the rate headwind; Outperform (downgraded from Strong Outperform — no cut path to add a duration tailwind). |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | N | N | N | Rate relief absent (10Y rising) but offset by supply; Neutral. |
| Comm. Services (XLC) | O | O | O | AI-linked; Outperform. |
| Ticker | GICS Sector (inherits) | Short 0–4w | Med 1–6m | Long 6–18m | Sector → stock rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MNO.TO | Materials (XLB) | U | O | SO | Inherits Materials (short N, cooled from the metals reversal); as a gold+copper developer it carries 2–3× metals beta, so the live gold/copper downtrend pins the short horizon to Underperform. IL-funded to FID + de-dollar/electrification bid keep medium/long strongly positive. |
| SOFI | Financials (XLF) | N | O | O | Inherits Financials (now Outperform on the bank rally + steeper curve); higher-for-longer keeps deposit/credit costs elevated near-term (short N), but a steeper curve aids lending margins and a resilient consumer supports medium/long. |
| DLO | Financials (XLF) | N | N | O | Inherits Financials; a firm dollar + EM risk-off (EEM −7.7%) is a near-term headwind — not the tailwind the intraday version assumed — so short/medium Neutral; idiosyncratic TPV growth + de-dollar settlement rails keep long Outperform. |
| Asset | Flow | Money Type | Conf | Short 0–4w | Med 1–6m | Long 6–18m | Key Drivers | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ Part A — Inflows | ||||||||
| Financials (XLF) | ↑↑ | Real Fast | High | IN | IN | — | US Econ×4 · Monetary×4 | Bank rally (+3.7% into month-end) on a steeper curve + higher-for-longer NIM — SOFI/DLO sit here. |
| Defense (XAR) | ↑ | Real | Medium | IN | IN | IN | NATO×3 | Structural 5%-of-GDP rearmament capex — a durable real-money bid. |
| Copper | ↑ | Real Fast | Medium | — | IN | IN | China×3 · Energy×3 · AI×3 | −7% mo caps short; China PMI 50.3 + electrification/AI power demand build the medium/long bid. |
| TIPS | ↑ | Real | Medium | — | IN | IN | US Fiscal×4 · Monetary×4 | Rising real yields cap short; the fiscal/debasement inflation hedge accrues medium/long. |
| Silver (SLV) | ↑ | Real | Medium | — | IN | IN | Energy×3 · De-dollar×3 | −19% correction; fast money sold the drop (see Part C) but real money accumulates the structural deficit medium/long. |
| Gold (GLD) | · | Real | Medium | OUT | — | IN | De-dollar×3 · US Fiscal×4 | Fast money selling the downtrend short (OUT); real-money CB accumulation reasserts long (IN) — a divergence (Part C). |
| ▼ Part B — Outflows | ||||||||
| USD (UUP) | · | Real Fast | Medium | IN | — | OUT | US Econ×4 · De-dollar×3 | Fast-money rate-differential + higher-for-longer bid the dollar short (IN, +2% mo); real-money reserve diversification erodes it long (OUT) — a divergence (Part C). |
| Long Treasuries (TLT) | ↓ | Fast | Medium | OUT | — | — | Monetary×4 · US Fiscal×4 | Bear-steepener: the 10Y rose to 4.48% and no cut path rescues duration — long end pressured short. |
| EM Equities (EEM) | ↓ | Fast | Medium | OUT | — | IN | US Econ×4 · Monetary×4 | Firm USD + risk-off (EEM −7.7%) drive fast-money outflows short; structural EM reasserts long. |
| High Yield (HYG) | ↓ | Fast | Medium | OUT | — | — | Private Credit×4 · US Econ×4 | Consumer/credit stress pressures HY short-term; normalises medium. |
| Asset | Flow | Money Type | Conf | Short 0–4w | Med 1–6m | Long 6–18m | Key Drivers | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ Part A — Sector Inflows (overweight) | ||||||||
| Financials (XLF) | ↑↑ | Real Fast | High | IN | IN | — | US Econ×4 · Monetary×4 | Bank rally (+3.7%) on a steeper curve + higher-for-longer NIM — SOFI and DLO sit here. |
| Industrials (XLI) | ↑ | Real Fast | High | IN | IN | IN | NATO×3 · China×3 · Monetary×4 | Reshoring + defense capex + electrification; SO long horizon. |
| Technology (XLK) | ↑ | Fast | Medium | IN | IN | IN | AI×3 · Monetary×4 | AI capex; breadth broadening keeps the average tech name bid. |
| Comm. Services (XLC) | ↑ | Fast | Medium | IN | IN | IN | AI×3 | AI-linked; Outperform. |
| Utilities (XLU) | ↑ | Real | Medium | — | IN | IN | Energy×3 · AI×3 | Power-demand/electrification bid; downgraded from strong — no cut path to add a duration tailwind. |
| Materials (XLB) | ↑ | Real | Medium | — | IN | IN | De-dollar×3 · China×3 · Energy×3 | Metals downtrend caps short; de-dollar + China + copper/electrification build medium/long — MNO.TO sits here. |
| ▼ Part B — Sector Outflows (underweight) | ||||||||
| Real Estate (XLRE) | ↓ | Fast | Medium | OUT | — | — | Monetary×4 · US Fiscal×4 | Higher-for-longer (10Y 4.48% rising) pressures rate-sensitive REITs short; Neutral thereafter. |
| Interaction | How double-count was prevented | Method |
|---|---|---|
| US Economic Health ↔ Global Monetary Policy | The weak jobs print drives both the growth read and the rate-path read. Counted US Econ Health as the growth/regime source and Monetary as the rate-path transmission — no double-count on the cut-path bid to gold/TIPS. | Source vs channel split |
| Global Monetary Policy ↔ US Fiscal | Both act on the yield curve but via different channels (policy rate vs coupon supply). Monetary sets the front-end cut; Fiscal caps the long end — the bull-steepener, not a double-counted TLT signal. | Front-end vs term-premium split |
| De-dollarisation ↔ US Fiscal | Both bid gold, but one is reserve diversification and the other fiscal debasement. Counted as independent structural buyers — conviction, not inflation. | Independent buyers |
| AI & Productivity ↔ Energy Transition | Both lift copper (data-centre power + electrification). Counted AI as the demand-growth source and Energy Transition as the structural-deficit source; overlap acknowledged, not additive. | Demand vs supply split |
| Private Credit ↔ US Economic Health | Weak jobs raise consumer-credit stress; both pressure Financials. Counted US Econ as the macro source and Private Credit as the transmission vehicle — single XLF underweight. | Source vs vehicle |
{
"run_id": "MD-20260703",
"date": "2026-07-03",
"supersedes": "2026-07-03T06:00 intraday version, which over-read the single weak June jobs print (+57k) as a decisive Soft-Landing / Fed-cut pivot; corrected under single-print discipline (tape refuses to price cuts). Diffs baselined vs 2026-06-26.",
"next_update_date": "2026-07-07",
"next_update_basis": "ISM Services + Prices 2026-07-06 +1 trading day (immediate confirm/refute of the services-cooling read anchoring the contested regime)",
"dominant_regime": "Contested \u2014 no clear lead (Soft Landing / Stagflation co-lead)",
"prior_regime": "Reacceleration lead / Stagflation rising (2026-06-26)",
"confidence": "Low-Medium",
"scenario_weights": {
"Soft Landing": 30,
"Stagflation": 30,
"Reacceleration": 27,
"Deflationary Bust": 13
},
"prior_scenario_weights": {
"Reacceleration": 34,
"Stagflation": 31,
"Soft Landing": 24,
"Deflationary Bust": 11
},
"total_active_dominance": 37,
"active_drivers": [
{
"name": "US Economic Health",
"type": "enduring",
"dominance": 4
},
{
"name": "Global Monetary Policy",
"type": "enduring",
"dominance": 4
},
{
"name": "Private Credit & Shadow Banking Stress",
"type": "enduring",
"dominance": 4
},
{
"name": "US Fiscal Trajectory & Sovereign Debt",
"type": "enduring",
"dominance": 4
},
{
"name": "De-dollarisation & Monetary Geopolitics",
"type": "enduring",
"dominance": 3
},
{
"name": "China Economic Health",
"type": "enduring",
"dominance": 3
},
{
"name": "AI & Productivity Revolution",
"type": "enduring",
"dominance": 3
},
{
"name": "Energy Transition & Electrification",
"type": "enduring",
"dominance": 3
},
{
"name": "Structural Deglobalisation & Trade",
"type": "enduring",
"dominance": 3
},
{
"name": "NATO Rearmament & Global Defense",
"type": "enduring",
"dominance": 3
},
{
"name": "Japan / Yen Carry-Trade Unwind",
"type": "temporary",
"dominance": 2
},
{
"name": "Iran / Hormuz Crisis",
"type": "temporary",
"dominance": 1
}
],
"driver_changes_vs_26jun": {
"downgraded": [
{
"name": "Iran / Hormuz Crisis",
"from": 2,
"to": 1,
"why": "Ceasefire holding, Hormuz flows normalised (>10M bpd), WTI ~$67 \u2014 risk premium bled out."
}
],
"reverted": [
{
"name": "US Economic Health",
"intraday": 5,
"to": 4,
"why": "A single +57k jobs print does not upgrade a driver's dominance under single-print discipline; unchanged vs 26 Jun at High (4)."
}
]
},
"asset_class_forecast": {
"Gold": {
"short": "U",
"medium": "N",
"long": "O"
},
"TIPS": {
"short": "N",
"medium": "N",
"long": "O"
},
"Silver": {
"short": "U",
"medium": "N",
"long": "O"
},
"JPY": {
"short": "N",
"medium": "N",
"long": "N"
},
"Defense": {
"short": "O",
"medium": "O",
"long": "O"
},
"Agriculture": {
"short": "N",
"medium": "N",
"long": "N"
},
"Oil": {
"short": "N",
"medium": "N",
"long": "N"
},
"Copper": {
"short": "N",
"medium": "O",
"long": "SO"
},
"EM Equities": {
"short": "N",
"medium": "N",
"long": "O"
},
"Long Treasuries": {
"short": "U",
"medium": "N",
"long": "N"
},
"USD": {
"short": "O",
"medium": "N",
"long": "U"
},
"US Equities": {
"short": "N",
"medium": "N",
"long": "N"
},
"US Tech": {
"short": "N",
"medium": "N",
"long": "O"
},
"High Yield": {
"short": "U",
"medium": "N",
"long": "N"
},
"IG Credit": {
"short": "N",
"medium": "N",
"long": "N"
}
},
"sector_forecast": {
"XLK": {
"short": "O",
"medium": "O",
"long": "O"
},
"XLF": {
"short": "O",
"medium": "O",
"long": "N"
},
"XLV": {
"short": "N",
"medium": "N",
"long": "N"
},
"XLY": {
"short": "N",
"medium": "N",
"long": "N"
},
"XLP": {
"short": "N",
"medium": "N",
"long": "N"
},
"XLE": {
"short": "N",
"medium": "N",
"long": "N"
},
"XLI": {
"short": "O",
"medium": "O",
"long": "SO"
},
"XLB": {
"short": "N",
"medium": "O",
"long": "SO"
},
"XLU": {
"short": "O",
"medium": "O",
"long": "O"
},
"XLRE": {
"short": "N",
"medium": "N",
"long": "N"
},
"XLC": {
"short": "O",
"medium": "O",
"long": "O"
}
},
"watchlist_forecast": {
"MNO.TO": {
"short": "U",
"medium": "O",
"long": "SO",
"sector": "Materials (XLB)",
"reason": "Inherits Materials (short N); 2-3x gold+copper beta pins short to U on the live metals downtrend; IL-funded to FID + de-dollar/electrification keep medium/long strong."
},
"SOFI": {
"short": "N",
"medium": "O",
"long": "O",
"sector": "Financials (XLF)",
"reason": "Inherits Financials (now O on the bank rally + steeper curve); higher-for-longer keeps deposit/credit costs elevated near-term (N short); steeper curve + resilient consumer support medium/long."
},
"DLO": {
"short": "N",
"medium": "N",
"long": "O",
"sector": "Financials (XLF)",
"reason": "Inherits Financials; firm USD + EM risk-off (EEM -7.7%) a near-term headwind (not the intraday tailwind); TPV growth + de-dollar rails keep long O."
}
},
"tail_risks": [
{
"name": "S&P 500 concentration / AI earnings-quality unwind",
"status": "armed_not_triggering",
"breadth_tell": "RSP equal-weight at a fresh 52-wk high (214.91) while SPY below its high \u2014 breadth broadening (falsification occurring)",
"trigger": "AI private-valuation markdown / hyperscaler capex cut / non-op gains negative + breadth rollover"
}
],
"market_snapshot": {
"SPY_area": "~745",
"RSP": 214.91,
"RSP_52w_high": true,
"GLD": 378.13,
"GLD_chg_mo": "-8.1%",
"SLV": 55.02,
"SLV_chg_mo": "-18.7%",
"UUP": 28.34,
"UUP_chg_mo": "+2.1%",
"CPER": 37.29,
"CPER_chg_mo": "-6.7%",
"TLT": 85.51,
"EEM": 65.7,
"EEM_chg_mo": "-7.7%",
"XLF_2d": "+3.7%",
"UST10Y": 4.48,
"UST2Y": 4.17,
"curve_10y2y": 0.35,
"fed_funds": 3.63,
"VIX": 16.59,
"unemployment": 4.2,
"NFP_Jun": 57,
"JOLTS": 7.594
},
"divergences": [
{
"asset": "Gold",
"real_stance": "CB accumulation (structural IN)",
"fast_stance": "selling the downtrend on real-rate + USD headwind (OUT)",
"resolution": "short capped on the tape; structural bid reasserts long."
},
{
"asset": "USD",
"real_stance": "de-dollar reserve diversification (OUT, long)",
"fast_stance": "rate-differential + higher-for-longer buying (IN, short)",
"resolution": "fast money wins short (dollar firm); real money wins long."
},
{
"asset": "Silver",
"real_stance": "structural deficit accumulation",
"fast_stance": "-19% momentum selling",
"resolution": "oversold; deficit reasserts medium/long."
},
{
"asset": "SPY vs RSP",
"real_stance": "rotating into equal-weight",
"fast_stance": "trimming mega-cap AI",
"resolution": "breadth broadening; index-level risk falls."
}
],
"sector_capital_flow": [
{
"sector": "XLF",
"flow": "in",
"money": "real+fast",
"short": "in",
"medium": "in",
"long": "x"
},
{
"sector": "XLI",
"flow": "in",
"money": "real+fast",
"short": "in",
"medium": "in",
"long": "in"
},
{
"sector": "XLK",
"flow": "in",
"money": "fast",
"short": "in",
"medium": "in",
"long": "in"
},
{
"sector": "XLU",
"flow": "in",
"money": "real",
"short": "x",
"medium": "in",
"long": "in"
},
{
"sector": "XLB",
"flow": "in",
"money": "real",
"short": "x",
"medium": "in",
"long": "in"
},
{
"sector": "XLRE",
"flow": "out",
"money": "fast",
"short": "out",
"medium": "x",
"long": "x"
}
],
"forecast_scoring_vs_26jun": {
"this_week": "1/5 HIT",
"note": "Reaccel-on-top refuted (Boris too hot on growth/inflation), but the tape refused to confirm cuts (2Y>funds, USD +2%, gold down) \u2014 both extremes wrong, regime contested."
},
"calendar_events": [
{
"name": "ISM Services PMI (Jun)",
"date": "2026-07-06",
"consensus": "54.2",
"boris_forecast": "53.2 \u2014 services cooling in sympathy with jobs",
"boris_confidence": "Medium"
},
{
"name": "ISM Services Prices (Jun)",
"date": "2026-07-06",
"consensus": "~71",
"boris_forecast": "68 \u2014 disinflation extends to services input costs",
"boris_confidence": "Medium"
},
{
"name": "Balance of Trade (May)",
"date": "2026-07-07",
"consensus": "-78.8B",
"boris_forecast": "-72B \u2014 tariff-front-running import surge fading",
"boris_confidence": "Low"
},
{
"name": "Consumer Inflation Expectations (Jun)",
"date": "2026-07-07",
"consensus": "3.2%",
"boris_forecast": "3.1% \u2014 expectations easing with headline disinflation",
"boris_confidence": "Low"
},
{
"name": "FOMC Minutes (Jun 17)",
"date": "2026-07-08",
"consensus": "n/a",
"boris_forecast": "Members split \u2014 labour-softening noted but inflation/tariff vigilance keeps the bar for cuts high; not a green light for Sep",
"boris_confidence": "Medium"
}
],
"new_driver_candidates": []
}