CHANGES SINCE LAST REPORT (11 May 2026 EOD → 13 Jun 2026)
Price: C$1.94 → C$1.67 (−13.9%)
Quality: 65 → 73 (+8)
Valuation: 65 → 73 (+8)
Timing: 77 → 68 (−9)
Driver: 72 → 85 (+13)
Short signal: BUY → WAIT FOR EVENT
Medium: STRONG BUY (unchanged)
Long: STRONG BUY (unchanged)
Two big things changed in opposite directions. (1) Fundamentals materially de-risked: the Cabaçal Installation Licence was SUBMITTED to SEMA (Mato Grosso) on 19 May 2026 (was "pending"), and the cash caveat is cleared — Meridian now holds USD 104.0M / C$143.1M after the April raise, fully funded through DFS, permitting and Final Investment Decision. Copper rose to ~US$6.12/lb (May FRED, +7.6% vs March), lifting Driver 72→85. (2) The swing breakout faded: price round-tripped from the C$2.16 13-May peak back to C$1.67, RSI fell ~68→34, and price is now ~10% below SMA20. Net: medium/long thesis stronger and cheaper (STRONG BUY held), but the short-term trade is downgraded to WAIT-FOR-EVENT — FOMC on 17 Jun is 3 trading days out and Materials is a High macro-sensitivity sector. Note: prior report was v4; part of the Quality/Valuation lift reflects the v5 methodology (analyst consensus + P/NAV anchor).
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
| Horizon | Signal | Composite | Confidence | Key Driver |
|---|
→ Short-term (1–3 mo)
primary · swing |
WAIT FOR EVENT |
70 |
38% |
Constructive pullback to C$1.58 support, but FOMC (17 Jun, 3 trading days) + below SMA20/50, RSI 34 — wait for the Fed & a reversal candle |
| Medium-term (6–12 mo) |
STRONG BUY |
72 |
48% |
IL submitted, fully funded to FID, copper ~US$6.12/lb; ~0.51x PFS NAV |
| Long-term (3–5 yr) |
STRONG BUY |
72 |
50% |
Quality + valuation dominate: funded developer, +80% to consensus C$3.00, strong copper tailwind |
No Do-Not-Buy trigger fired. The split verdict is the point: the business got better and cheaper while the chart got weaker. For a swing trade specifically, the prudent move is to let the FOMC pass and require reversal confirmation rather than catch a falling knife.
1
Three-Pillar Scorecard
Three independent scores — Business Quality, Valuation Attractiveness, and Entry/Exit Timing — each 0–100 with a confidence percentage. Pre-adjustment scores are shown alongside the final so you can see exactly how much the copper Driver tailwind (+5/+3/+8) nudged each pillar. The weak leg here is Timing; Quality and Valuation are firmly in the "high/attractive" bands.
Business Quality
73
Funded developer, robust economics
Confidence: 52% · Pre-adjustment: 68
Valuation Attractiveness
73
~0.51x PFS NAV, +80% to consensus
Confidence: 62% · Pre-adjustment: 70
Entry/Exit Timing
68
Pullback to support, momentum down
Confidence: 38% · Pre-adjustment: 60
Overall confidence = min(52, 62, 38) = 38%. Flagged LOWER CONFIDENCE — driven by the Timing leg: no Polygon intraday data on the TSX (technicals computed manually from Yahoo OHLCV) and a high-impact FOMC inside the 3-trading-day window. Treat the short-term call with extra caution.
2
Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status
Binary safety checks — any TRIGGERED gate is a hard Do-Not-Buy regardless of how strong the scores above are; CAUTION gates are notes for position sizing and timing. For a pre-production junior the live concerns are dilution, permitting and the commodity floor. None are triggered; two cautions (imminent macro event, permitting milestone pending) shape the short-term call.
✓Financial Distress — CLEARNo debt; C$143.1M cash; current ratio 32.25x. Fully funded through DFS + permitting + FID.
✓Currency Verification — CLEARCAD confirmed across FMP profile + Yahoo quote (exchange TOR). Not ASX:MNO (AUD).
✓Earnings Blackout — CLEARDeveloper; no scheduled earnings event. Quarterly financials only — none imminent.
✓Valuation Ceiling — CLEARC$1.67 vs C$3.50 high target / ~0.51x PFS NAV. Nowhere near a ceiling.
✓Commodity Floor (Severe Driver) — CLEARCopper ~US$6.12/lb >> US$3.00/lb thesis floor. Driver tailwind, not collapse.
⚠Dilution / Accounting — CAUTIONEquity-funded developer; the April raise was dilutive but leaves it fully funded to FID. Construction financing (debt + equity) at FID will be the next dilution event — not imminent.
⚠Permitting / Binary Milestone — CAUTIONInstallation Licence submitted to SEMA 19 May 2026, approval pending. PL already approved, so trajectory is positive — but IL approval timing is uncertain.
⚠Imminent Macro Event — CAUTIONFOMC 17 Jun (3 trading days). Materials = High macro sensitivity → short-term WAIT-FOR-EVENT override; −10 to Timing confidence.
Do-Not-Buy triggers: none fired. No leverage+rate spiral (zero debt), no valuation extreme, no negative earnings-revision overhang, no insider-selling spike (the stock repeatedly screens for high insider ownership), no structural business-model threat.
3
Underlying Driver Analysis
A development-stage copper-gold miner is tethered above all to the copper price (with gold as a co-product credit). The driver is scored across historical / current / forward horizons, then asymmetrically nudges each pillar. The thesis-invalidation floor — copper sustained below US$3.00/lb — is the level at which the whole case breaks; we are nowhere near it.
| Horizon (weight) | Read | Data / source & date | Score |
|---|
| Historical (25%) | Copper up ~US$4.87→US$6.12/lb over 7 months — strong uptrend | FRED PCOPPUSDM: Oct'25 $10,740/MT → May'26 $13,484/MT | 85 |
| Current (50%) | US$6.12/lb vs US$3.00 floor; well above Cabaçal economics (NPV/IRR >61%, ~20mo payback) | FRED PCOPPUSDM May 2026 = $13,483.75/MT ÷ 2204.62 = $6.12/lb | 90 |
| Forward (25%) | Electrification/grid deficit thesis constructive; near-term risk from global-growth wobble & a firmer USD if Fed stays hawkish | Stifel/analyst copper notes (Jan'26); FOMC 17 Jun context | 75 |
Driver = (85×0.25) + (90×0.50) + (75×0.25) = 85 → Strong Tailwind band (80–100).
| Pillar | Pre-adjustment | Adjustment | Post-adjustment |
|---|
| Quality | 68 | +5 | 73 |
| Valuation | 70 | +3 | 73 |
| Timing | 60 | +8 | 68 |
Driver confidence: 62% — current copper data is fresh, but the series is inherently volatile (−15 base penalty) and the May print is the latest FRED monthly (April-to-real-time spot tracked via news). Thesis-invalidation floor: copper sustained < US$3.00/lb, or IL rejection, or cash < C$30M — all remote today.
4
Pillar Detail: Business Quality
Why Quality scored 73 (pre-driver 68). Meridian is a pre-revenue, development-stage miner, so it is judged on project economics, funding runway, permitting progress, resource/exploration optionality and management execution — not P/E or ROIC. The standout is balance-sheet strength: fully funded to Final Investment Decision with zero debt.
Lifecycle: Pre-Revenue / Development Mining & Materials (Cu-Au VMS)
| Sub-signal | Value / evidence | Score | Rationale |
|---|
| Project economics | Post-tax NPV + IRR >61%; ~20-month payback (at earlier metal prices) | 85 | Top-tier developer economics; robust even before the recent copper move |
| Funding runway | C$143.1M cash (USD 104.0M), zero debt, current ratio 32.25x; funded through DFS + permitting + FID | 90 | Removes the #1 junior-developer risk (dilution/financing) for ~2+ years |
| Permitting progress | Preliminary Licence approved; Installation Licence submitted to SEMA 19 May 2026 | 80 | Major de-risking step; IL approval timing still pending |
| Resource / exploration | 55+ km contiguous tenements in a prospective belt; ~C$10M exploration program | 70 | Meaningful resource-growth optionality beyond the development case |
| Management / execution | Oversubscribed raises, LSE admission, long-lead mill items ordered (SAG mill, transformer), ENERGISA power letter; high insider ownership | 72 | Consistent execution and shareholder alignment; building real construction readiness |
Industry Benchmark — Pre-Production Developer Scorecard
P/NAV + Distance-to-Production + Permitting
P/NAV ~0.51x PFS (C$1.67 / C$3.26) · DFS ~50% complete, on track Q4 2026 · FID to follow · IL submitted
Rating: Advancing through the highest-risk pre-construction window with funding secured — Benchmark Score: 70/100
Context: most pre-construction developers trade 0.4–0.7x NAV; Meridian sits at the low end despite being fully funded, which is the valuation hook.
Competitive Moat Scorecard
Pricing Power
50
Commodity price-taker
Network Effects
50
N/A (neutral)
Switching Costs
50
N/A (neutral)
Cost Advantage
70
High-grade VMS, low projected AISC
Intangibles
75
Permits/licence + tenement position
Moat average ~59 (non-applicable dimensions set to 50). The durable advantages are the orebody grade/cost position and the permitting + land package — the things a competitor cannot quickly replicate. ROIC/capital allocation: ROIC is N/A pre-production; capital allocation has been disciplined (raised when oversubscribed, fully funding the plan) with high insider ownership. FMP rating divergence: FMP scores MNO "C-" (overall 1/5) because its model penalises negative earnings/ROE/ROA — structurally misleading for a pre-revenue developer whose value is the unbuilt asset. We note it but do not let it override the asset-based read.
5
Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness
Why Valuation scored 73 (pre-driver 70). For a pre-production miner the anchor is Price/NAV, cross-checked against the analyst consensus target and grades. Traditional multiples (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, FCF yield) are not meaningful here and are flagged as such. The pullback to C$1.67 has widened the discount versus the May report.
| Metric | Value | Reference | Read |
|---|
| P/NAV (PFS) | ~0.51x | C$1.67 / C$3.26 PFS NAV-per-share | Attractive — low end of the 0.4–0.7x developer band |
| P/NAV (spot-est) | ~0.19x | C$1.67 / ~C$8.76 spot-NAV estimate | Very attractive if spot metal prices hold into the DFS |
| Analyst median target | C$3.00 (+79.6%) | 8 analysts (Yahoo consensus) | Price >20% below consensus → strong support |
| Analyst range | C$2.75 – C$3.50 | Low +64.7% / High +109.6%; mean C$3.0375 | Entire range sits above the current price |
| FCF yield | N/A (negative) | FCF/share ~−C$0.024; pre-revenue burn | Not an anchor pre-production — funded by cash, not cash flow |
| P/B (7.13x) / EV-EBITDA (−37x) | Not meaningful | Book C$0.234/sh; negative EBITDA | Excluded — asset not yet revalued to development NAV |
Analyst Price Target Consensus
8 analysts; current price sits ~80% below the median target. Narrow-ish high/low spread (1.27x) = reasonable agreement. Caveat: all-bull consensus is itself a mild contrarian flag and these are junior-developer targets with wide error bars.
Analyst Grades Distribution
100% bullish (4 Strong Buy / 4 Buy / 0 Hold / 0 Sell)Consensus: Strong Buy (mean 1.5)
FMP financial-health cross-reference: "C-" (1/5) — as in §4, this reflects the pre-revenue earnings penalty, diverging sharply from the asset-based valuation. Flagged, not weighted.
6
Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing
Why Timing scored 68 (pre-driver 60) — and why the short-term signal is still WAIT. The chart is a healthy higher-timeframe uptrend that has pulled back to support, which is constructive, but the immediate momentum is down (below SMA20/50, RSI 34) and a Fed meeting sits inside 3 trading days. Good setup, wrong moment.
| Sub-signal (weight) | Read | Score |
|---|
| MTF trend (30%) | Monthly strong-up, weekly rolling over from C$2.16, daily pullback below SMA20/50 — "higher-TF bull + lower-TF dip to support" | 55 |
| Risk-reward (20%) | Price on Bollinger lower band, ~0.9 ATR above C$1.58 bought-deal support; logical near-stop ~C$1.55 keeps risk ~1 ATR vs large upside to targets | 68 |
| Macro overlay (20%) | Copper tailwind strong, but FOMC 17 Jun, CPI re-accelerated to 4.2% YoY, PPI hot +1.1%, VIX ~19, 10Y 4.45% | 55 |
| Sentiment (15%) | 8-analyst Strong Buy; positive news flow (IL submitted, fully funded, LSE admission) | 75 |
| Catalysts (15%) | IL submission done (positive); DFS Q4 2026; IL approval pending; FOMC near-term risk — moderate density | 58 |
Raw Timing = (55×.30)+(68×.20)+(55×.20)+(75×.15)+(58×.15) = 61 → rounded 60, +8 driver = 68. Relative strength: MNO is −14% over the past month while copper made new highs — a short-term laggard versus its own driver, though still a large YTD outperformer. Reversal tell: 11 Jun printed a 3.33M-share green candle off the C$1.58 low (heaviest volume in months) — early accumulation, but 12 Jun gave some back on light volume, so it is unconfirmed. Confidence 38%: FOMC proximity (−10) and no Polygon intraday/technicals on the TSX (manual RSI/SMA/ATR from Yahoo).
7
Economic Event Risk
The next 14 days of high-impact US macro releases, plus last week's surprises. Materials is a High macro-sensitivity sector, so a high-impact event inside 3 trading days triggers the short-term WAIT-FOR-EVENT override. Copper itself trades more on China/global growth and the USD, so a hawkish-Fed/strong-USD outcome would be a mild copper headwind on top of the equity-level event risk.
⚠ FOMC Rate Decision — Wed 17 Jun 2026 (3 trading days)
Consensus: hold at 3.75%. With CPI re-accelerating to 4.2% YoY and PPI hot (+1.1% MoM), the risk skews toward a hawkish hold / fewer-cuts message — supportive of the USD and a mild headwind for copper and rate-sensitive developers. This is the basis for the short-term WAIT override.
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? |
|---|
| Mon 16 Jun | Building Permits / Housing Starts (May) | High | 1.41 / 1.44M | 1.423 / 1.465M | ⚠ Indirect (copper demand) |
| Wed 17 Jun | Retail Sales MoM (May) | High | +0.5% | +0.5% | ⚠ Growth signal |
| Wed 17 Jun | FOMC Decision + Projections + Presser | High | Hold 3.75% | 3.75% | ✅ Yes — rates/USD/copper |
| Thu 25 Jun | Core PCE MoM (May) | High | — | +0.2% | ✅ Inflation follow-through |
| Thu 2 Jul | Non-Farm Payrolls / Unemployment (Jun) | High | +70K / 4.5% | +172K / 4.3% | ✅ Growth/USD |
Recent surprises (last 7 days): CPI YoY 4.2% in-line (up from 3.8%); Core CPI MoM 0.2% (cooler than 0.3% forecast); PPI MoM +1.1% (hot, vs +0.7%); Michigan sentiment 48.9 (beat 46). Mixed inflation tape — the hot PPI and rising headline CPI are the parts the Fed will weigh against a softening labour market (NFP forecast slowing to +70K).
8
Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis
Trend, RSI and breakout status across monthly / weekly / daily. Hourly and 15-minute are unavailable — Polygon does not cover the TSX, so intraday rows are omitted and weights reallocated to Monthly 35% / Weekly 30% / Daily 35%. All values computed manually from Yahoo OHLCV through the 12 Jun close.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI(14) | Key Support | Key Resistance | Breakout |
|---|
| Monthly | Strong Uptrend ↑ | Bullish | ~60 | C$1.22 | C$2.16 | None (in trend) |
| Weekly | Weakening → | Neutral | ~45 | C$1.58 | C$2.16 | None |
| Daily | Downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 34 | C$1.58 | C$1.86 (SMA20) | At lower Bollinger band |
| Hourly | Unavailable — Polygon does not provide TSX intraday data |
| 15-min | Unavailable — Polygon does not provide TSX intraday data |
| Confluence | Mixed / Transitioning — MTF score ~55. Pattern: higher-TF bullish + lower-TF pullback to support. |
Indicators (daily, 12 Jun): Price C$1.67 · SMA20 C$1.86 (−10.0%) · SMA50 C$1.83 (−8.5%) · RSI 34.1 (approaching oversold, not yet <30) · ATR C$0.10 (6.1%/day) · Bollinger(20,2) lower C$1.62 / mid C$1.86 / upper C$2.09. Interpretation: the monthly and weekly structures remain bullish, but daily momentum has rolled over and price is testing the lower band right above the C$1.58 bought-deal shelf. This is the textbook "buy the dip in an uptrend" zone — once momentum stops falling. The missing confirmation is an RSI turn back above ~45 and a close back over SMA20.
9
Price Chart (6-Month Daily)
Six months of daily closes with SMA20 and SMA50 overlaid and the key levels marked — C$2.16 (52-week high), C$1.86 SMA20, C$1.58 bought-deal support, and the C$1.25 hard stop. The visual shows the Feb–May advance, the May 13 spike to C$2.16, and the current pullback to the support shelf.
10
Scenario Summary
Bull / Base / Bear 12-month paths with explicit triggers and probability weights. The base case is the probability-weighted centre of gravity; the tails depend mostly on copper and the IL/DFS timeline.
Bull — 35%
C$3.00
IL approved; DFS (Q4 2026) confirms/upgrades economics; copper holds >US$6/lb. Re-rate toward analyst consensus as construction-financing visibility improves.
Base — 45%
C$2.20
Steady de-risking; copper ranges US$5.50–6.50/lb; DFS on track. Price recovers from the pullback toward the prior C$2.00–2.40 zone over 12 months.
Bear — 20%
C$1.35
Global-growth scare pulls copper toward US$4.50/lb; IL delayed; risk-off junior-resource selloff. Retest of the C$1.25–1.40 support/stop region.
11
Entry / Exit Rules
Mechanical conditions tailored to the current swing setup. The fundamental gate is already met (price, copper, cash); the binding constraint is the technical trigger plus the FOMC blackout. Exits are anchored to the C$1.58/C$1.55 support shelf and the C$1.25 hard stop.
Entry 1 — Fundamental (status: MET)
Price < C$1.80 (below NAV-implied fair-value zone) — MET (C$1.67)
Copper > US$5.00/lb — MET (~US$6.12)
Cash > C$60M & no adverse permitting news — MET (C$143.1M; IL submitted)
Entry 2 — Technical / Swing trigger (status: NOT MET)
Daily close back above SMA20 (~C$1.86) on volume > 1.5x 20-day avg — NOT MET (below SMA20)
RSI reclaims > 45 AND MACD histogram positive 2+ days — NOT MET (RSI 34, momentum down)
Alt dip-buy: tag of C$1.57–1.58 with a bullish reversal candle + RSI bounce off <30 — watch
Entry 3 — Catalyst
Add on IL approval confirmation OR a positive DFS milestone on volume > 2x average
Exit 1 — Stop-loss
SELL if daily close < C$1.55 for 2 consecutive days (loses the C$1.58 bought-deal / C$1.57 swing-low shelf)
Hard catastrophic stop: C$1.25
Exit 2 — Thesis invalidation
Copper < US$3.00/lb sustained OR Installation Licence rejected OR cash < C$30M
Exit 3 — Profit-take (scaled)
Trim into C$2.16 (52-week high) and C$3.00 (analyst median) with RSI > 70
12
Position Sizing Context
You did not specify an allocation or portfolio role, so position-sizing math is omitted (per framework rules — no assumed defaults). What follows is volatility context only, to calibrate what a position in this name actually feels like.
Position sizing not computed — specify your portfolio allocation and role for sizing guidance.
Volatility context: ATR ~C$0.10 = 6.1% average daily move; beta ~1.13 vs market. This is a pre-production junior resource stock — episodic, headline-driven, and prone to gap moves around permitting/financing news. The 52-week range (C$0.73–C$2.16) spans roughly 3x. Staggered entry is the natural fit given the pullback: rather than a single entry, scale across the current level, a C$1.58 support tag, and a confirmed reclaim of SMA20 — and keep any swing position small relative to a core holding because of the daily volatility and the FOMC event risk.
13
Calibration Snapshot
Machine-readable snapshot of every score, sub-score, key level and delta vs the prior report. Saved alongside this HTML as calibration-MNO-20260613-1417.json so the next run and the watchlist monitor can compute changes without parsing HTML.
{
"ticker": "MNO.TO",
"exchange_ticker": "TSX:MNO",
"isin": "GB00BVPND783",
"company": "Meridian Mining Plc",
"currency": "CAD",
"date": "2026-06-13",
"time": "1417",
"version": "v5",
"user_horizon": "short_term_swing",
"price_at_rating": 1.67,
"price_prev_report": 1.94,
"price_change_pct": -13.92,
"signal_short": "WAIT_FOR_EVENT",
"signal_medium": "STRONG_BUY",
"signal_long": "STRONG_BUY",
"primary_signal": "WAIT_FOR_EVENT",
"quality_score": 73,
"valuation_score": 73,
"timing_score": 68,
"driver_score": 85,
"quality_pre_adj": 68, "valuation_pre_adj": 70, "timing_pre_adj": 60,
"lifecycle_stage": "pre_revenue_development",
"moat_score": 59,
"industry_benchmark_name": "P/NAV + Distance-to-Production + Permitting",
"industry_benchmark_value": 0.51,
"industry_benchmark_score": 70,
"fcf_yield": null,
"p_nav_pfs": 0.51,
"analyst_consensus_target": 3.00,
"analyst_target_mean": 3.0375,
"analyst_target_high": 3.50,
"analyst_target_low": 2.75,
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 79.64,
"analyst_grades_consensus": "strong_buy",
"analyst_bullish_pct": 100,
"analyst_coverage_count": 8,
"fmp_rating": "C-",
"fmp_overall_score": 1,
"relative_strength_1m_vs_copper": "lagging",
"catalyst_clustering_score": 58,
"rsi_14": 34.1,
"sma20": 1.86,
"sma50": 1.83,
"atr_14": 0.10,
"bollinger_lower": 1.62,
"overall_confidence": 38,
"macro_context": {
"copper_usd_per_lb": 6.12,
"copper_usd_per_mt": 13483.75,
"copper_date": "2026-05-01",
"copper_change_vs_march_pct": 7.6,
"vix": 19.44, "vix_date": "2026-06-11",
"treasury_10y": 4.45, "treasury_2y": 4.05, "yield_curve_10y2y": 0.40,
"fomc_date": "2026-06-17"
},
"key_levels": {
"stop_loss": 1.25, "soft_stop": 1.55, "bought_deal_support": 1.58,
"recent_swing_low": 1.57, "sma20": 1.86, "resistance_52w_high": 2.16,
"analyst_median_target": 3.00, "analyst_high_target": 3.50,
"pfs_nav_per_share": 3.26, "spot_nav_per_share_est": 8.76
},
"gates_triggered": [],
"gates_caution": ["dilution_at_future_FID", "permitting_IL_pending", "imminent_macro_FOMC"],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"permitting_status": {"preliminary_licence": "APPROVED", "installation_licence": "SUBMITTED_2026-05-19"},
"cash_cad_m": 143.1, "cash_usd_m": 104.0, "total_debt": 0, "fully_funded_to": "FID",
"dfs_status": "~50%_complete_on_track_Q4_2026",
"next_check_date": "2026-06-18",
"score_changes_vs_prev": {"quality": 8, "valuation": 8, "timing": -9, "driver": 13,
"note": "Fundamentals de-risked (IL submitted 19 May; cash C$41.7M->C$143.1M confirmed, funded to FID; copper $5.68->$6.12/lb) while the swing breakout faded (C$2.16 peak -> C$1.67, RSI 68->34, below SMA20/50). Short downgraded BUY->WAIT-FOR-EVENT on FOMC proximity; medium/long STRONG_BUY held. Prior report was v4; part of Q/V lift reflects v5 methodology."}
}
14
Data Sources & Methodology
Full audit trail of every data source, with OK / partial / fail indicators and the confidence haircuts applied. The headline limitation is the absence of Polygon intraday/technical coverage for the TSX, which is why the Timing leg carries the lowest confidence.
Data Source Status
✓
Yahoo quote / profile — price, mkt cap, fundamentals, CAD confirmed
✓
Yahoo daily/weekly/monthly prices — 127 daily + 37 monthly bars
✓
Analyst targets + grades — 8 analysts, 4 SB / 4 B, median C$3.00
✓
FRED PCOPPUSDM / VIXCLS / DGS10 / DGS2 — copper, VIX, yields
✓
Economic calendar — FOMC 17 Jun + CPI/PPI surprises
✓
Income statement / ratios — pre-revenue burn, current ratio 32x
✓
Web search — IL submission, cash C$143.1M, DFS, LSE
⚠
Multi-timeframe / technical indicators (Polygon) — TSX unsupported; RSI/SMA/ATR/BB computed manually from Yahoo OHLCV
⚠
get_earnings_calendar — empty (developer; no scheduled earnings) — expected
⚠
FMP ratings snapshot — "C-"; pre-revenue penalty, diverges from asset value — noted not weighted
Impact on scores: No intraday data and manual technicals on the TSX reduce Timing confidence to 38% (from a ~55% base), compounded by the FOMC event inside 3 trading days. Quality/Valuation rely on Yahoo + verified web data (IL, cash) rather than Polygon/FMP primaries; FMP's "C-" health score is excluded from scoring as structurally misleading for a pre-revenue developer. Overall confidence = min across pillars = 38%.
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.