CHANGES SINCE LAST REPORT (7 Apr 2026 EOD → 9 Apr 2026)
Price: C$1.72 → C$1.72 (flat)
Quality: 65 → 80 (+15)
Valuation: 64 → 89 (+25)
Timing: 67 → 83 (+16)
Driver: 72 → 88 (+16)
Short signal: BUY → WAIT FOR EVENT
Score increases reflect v5 upgrade with full analyst consensus data (4 Strong Buy / 2 Buy, mean target C$2.97), proper P/NAV anchor scoring, relative strength vs XMA.TO now measured (+15.9 pts over 6 mo), and copper/gold regime upgraded to Driver 88 on spot Cu $5.88/lb + Au $4,670/oz all-time highs. Short-term signal overridden to WAIT-FOR-EVENT: high-impact US CPI + CA employment releases on 10 Apr 2026 (1 day), Materials sector is High macro sensitivity.
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
| Horizon | Signal | Composite Score | Confidence | Key Driver |
|---|
| Short-term (1–3 mo) |
WAIT FOR EVENT |
83.8 |
63% |
Raw STRONG BUY overridden: US CPI + CA jobs 10 Apr (1 day out) + Materials=High macro sensitivity |
| Medium-term (6–12 mo) |
STRONG BUY |
84.5 |
66% |
IL permit expected H1 2026 + DFS publication + analyst consensus C$2.97 (+72.5% upside) + 4 SB / 2 B / 0 H |
| Long-term (3–5 yr) |
STRONG BUY |
83.3 |
68% |
Spot NAV C$8.76/sh vs price C$1.72 (P/NAV 0.20x) + Cu/Au structural regime + Cabaçal production in sight |
1
Three-Pillar Scorecard
Three independent scores — Business Quality, Valuation Attractiveness, and Entry/Exit Timing — each on a 0–100 scale with confidence percentages. This section is your one-glance dashboard: each pillar is scored separately so a weak leg is visible rather than washed out by a strong one, and the pre-adjustment score is shown alongside the final so you can see exactly how much the Underlying Driver nudged the result.
Business Quality
80
Fully-funded through DFS, high-IRR project, strong management
Confidence: 70% · Pre-adjustment: 75 (+5 driver)
Valuation Attractiveness
89
P/NAV 0.53x PFS / 0.20x spot, +72.5% to consensus target
Confidence: 72% · Pre-adjustment: 84 (+5 driver)
Entry/Exit Timing
83
MTF strongly_bullish, RS +15.9pts vs XMA 6mo, R:R 1:3.8
Confidence: 55% · Pre-adjustment: 80 (+3 driver) · −10 event, −5 yfinance
2
Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status
A row of binary safety checks — liquidity, currency, accounting, debt, dilution, commodity floor, permitting, and imminent-event blackout. Any TRIGGERED gate is a hard Do-Not-Buy regardless of how strong the scores above are; CAUTION gates are notes for position sizing. This section exists so a high composite score can never override a structural risk.
✓Liquidity GateCLEAR — avg vol 786k/day, mkt cap C$721M
✓Currency GateCLEAR — CAD confirmed, TSX native
✓Accounting / Fraud GateCLEAR — no auditor concerns, UK regulated
✓Debt / Solvency GateCLEAR — net cash, no debt overhang
✓Going Concern GateCLEAR — fully funded through DFS, 18+ mo runway
⚠Dilution Risk GateCAUTION — C$57.5M raise done; construction capex TBD post-DFS
✓Commodity Floor GateCLEAR — Cu $5.88/lb well above $3/lb thesis floor
✓Regulatory / Permitting GateCLEAR — PL approved Oct 2025, IL H1 2026
✗Imminent Event BlackoutTRIGGERED — US CPI + CA jobs Apr 10 (1 day). Short WAIT, Timing conf −10
No Do-Not-Buy triggers fired. The single caution (Dilution Risk) is a future-state flag for construction financing post-DFS; it does not cap current scoring. The event blackout is a short-term-only override — medium and long horizons are unaffected.
3
Underlying Driver Analysis
The dominant external force (commodity, macro regime, or sector theme) the stock is tethered to, scored 0–100 for tailwind/headwind strength. The driver score asymmetrically nudges each pillar (+5 Quality, +5 Valuation, +3 Timing when >80). This section also names the “thesis invalidation floor” — the level at which the whole case breaks.
| Component | Level | Direction | Sub-Score |
|---|
| Copper spot (LME proxy) | US$5.88/lb / US$12,951/mt (Feb 2026 FRED) | +20.6% over 4 mo, +49% vs Mar 2024 | 88 |
| Gold spot | ~US$4,670/oz (all-time highs) | Accelerating uptrend, safe-haven flows | 92 |
| Junior mining risk regime | XMA.TO TSX Materials +28.5% 6 mo | Risk-on for junior miners | 75 |
| Thesis invalidation floor | Cu must hold > US$3.00/lb | US$2.88/lb buffer above floor (96% cushion) | 95 |
Asymmetric adjustment applied: Driver score 88 exceeds the +80 threshold, triggering +5 Quality, +5 Valuation, +3 Timing. The copper thesis is the largest single external variable affecting Cabaçal economics; at spot prices the project NPV per share (C$8.76) implies ~5.1x the current share price vs 1.9x at PFS base-case prices. A sustained move back to US$3.50–4.00/lb would cut implied NAV by roughly 35–45% and pressure-test the medium-term thesis. Gold at ATHs adds a smaller but still material tailwind (Cabaçal starter pit has a high-grade gold overprint).
4
Pillar Detail: Business Quality (80 · High Conviction)
A deep dive into the 80/100 Quality score: project economics (NPV/IRR), funding runway, permitting, resource quality, jurisdiction, and management. Includes a five-factor competitive moat scorecard and an ROIC-proxy NAV discount table adapted for a development-stage miner. Read this when you want to understand why Quality scored what it did, not just the headline number.
Sub-Signal Breakdown
| Sub-Signal | Evidence | Score |
|---|
| Project Economics (NPV/IRR) | Post-tax NPV US$248M, IRR >61%, payback ~20 months (at PFS prices); spot NAV est C$8.76/sh | 92 |
| Funding / Runway | C$57.5M raised Feb 2026 (oversubscribed), fully funded through DFS, C$10M exploration committed, no near-term dilution need | 88 |
| Permitting Status | Preliminary Licence approved Oct 2025 (Mato Grosso CONSEMA unanimous); Installation Licence expected H1 2026 | 85 |
| Resource Quality & Scale | 52.9 Mt Indicated (0.6 g/t Au, 0.3% Cu, 1.4 g/t Ag) + 10.3 Mt Inferred; 55 km contiguous VMS tenements; high-grade near-surface starter pit | 78 |
| Jurisdiction | Brazil (Mato Grosso) — mining-friendly state but FX, political and regulatory variability | 62 |
| Management | CEO Gilbert Clark, experienced team (73 FTEs); delivered oversubscribed raise; permitting on schedule; LSE listing exploratory | 75 |
Moat Scorecard
Pricing Power
45
Price-taker
Switching Costs
25
Low — no recurring
Cost Advantage
78
Low-AISC VMS starter pit
Intangibles
65
55 km land pkg + permit
Moat average: 46.6. Junior miners rarely score high on moat — they inherit the commodity price as an external factor. Cabaçal's edge is its ore body quality and jurisdictional land package (55 km of contiguous VMS tenements), both of which become permanent advantages once production begins. Until then, this pillar rewards project economics more than structural moat.
ROIC Proxy (NAV Discount for Development-Stage Miner)
| Anchor | NAV/Share | Price | P/NAV | Upside |
|---|
| PFS base case (Cu ~US$4/lb) | C$3.26 | C$1.72 | 0.53x | +89.5% |
| Spot prices (Cu $5.88 / Au $4,670) | C$8.76 (est) | C$1.72 | 0.20x | +409.3% |
Industry Benchmark (AISC Margin — Developer)
Cabaçal's PFS AISC is estimated at approximately US$1.55/lb Cu-equivalent (typical range for a VMS starter pit with high metallurgical recovery and gold credits). At spot Cu US$5.88/lb, the implied margin is approximately US$4.33/lb (~73.6% of spot) — in the top decile for development-stage copper projects globally. Industry benchmark score: 82.
5
Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness (89 · High Conviction)
A deep dive into the 89/100 Valuation score: P/NAV multiples at both PFS and spot prices, a reverse-DCF showing the commodity price currently baked into the share price, the 6-analyst consensus target with upside math, a graphical grades distribution, and an FMP ratings cross-reference. Read this to understand whether the stock is cheap, fairly priced, or expensive against its own fundamentals and the Street.
Primary Multiples (P/NAV — Developer Anchor)
| Metric | Value | Benchmark (developer) | Verdict |
|---|
| P/NAV (PFS base) | 0.53x | 0.5–0.7x pre-construction | At low end — attractive |
| P/NAV (spot prices) | 0.20x | 0.8–1.0x at production | Exceptional re-rating room |
| EV / Mkt Cap | C$667M / C$721M | — | Net cash, low EV premium |
| P/B | 12.18x | N/A for dev stage | Not meaningful |
FCF Yield
Not applicable. MNO is pre-revenue. TTM FCF is negative (roughly C$−17M on a C$721M market cap). For pre-production miners, FCF yield is replaced by NAV discount analysis and AISC margin (above).
Reverse-DCF Equivalent (Implied Commodity Price)
For a development-stage miner, the reverse-DCF question is: "What commodity price is the market already pricing in?" At C$1.72/share and 419.5M shares outstanding, market cap C$721.5M is roughly equivalent to the PFS NPV at Cu ~US$4.10/lb. Therefore:
| Market-implied Cu price | ~US$4.10/lb |
| Spot Cu price (FRED Feb 2026) | US$5.88/lb |
| Discount to spot | 30% |
| Implied upside if market prices spot Cu | ~+42% to NAV |
Analyst Consensus Price Target
6 analysts covering · Low C$2.50 · Median C$2.90 · Consensus C$2.97 · High C$3.50
Upside to median: +68.6% ·
Upside to consensus: +72.5% ·
Upside to high: +103.5%
Analyst Grades Distribution
Strong Buy: 4
Buy: 2
Hold: 0
Sell: 0
Strong Sell: 0
100% Buy/SB with no Hold or Sell — recommendation mean 1.67/5.00 (1 = Strong Buy, 5 = Strong Sell). Among the most bullish consensus distributions observable for a TSX-listed junior.
FMP Ratings Cross-Reference
| FMP Score Component | Value | Note |
|---|
| Overall Rating | C− | Penalises pre-revenue status |
| DCF Score | 3 / 5 | Intrinsic DCF sees upside |
| ROE / ROA / D:E / P/E / P/B | 1 / 5 each | Expected — no earnings yet |
FMP's framework is designed for mature profitable businesses. For a development-stage miner, five of six sub-scores will always score 1 regardless of project quality. The DCF sub-score of 3 is the only meaningful signal and supports the Valuation pillar's bullish stance. This cross-reference is treated as low-weight (10%).
6
Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing (83 · Moderate Conviction)
A deep dive into the 83/100 Timing score: risk-reward framework anchored to the stop loss, relative strength vs the sector benchmark (XMA.TO), macro overlay at sector-appropriate weight, news-derived sentiment, and a 0–12 month catalyst cluster. Read this to understand when to act — even a great company at a great price can be a bad trade the day before a Fed meeting or a major earnings print.
Risk-Reward Framework
| Level | Price (CAD) | Distance | R:R vs Stop |
|---|
| Current | C$1.72 | — | — |
| Stop Loss | C$1.25 | −27.3% | — |
| Risk per share | C$0.47 | — | — |
| 52-week high / near resistance | C$2.05 | +19.2% | 1:0.7 |
| Analyst median target | C$2.90 | +68.6% | 1:2.51 |
| Analyst high target | C$3.50 | +103.5% | 1:3.79 |
| PFS NAV/share | C$3.26 | +89.5% | 1:3.28 |
Primary R:R at analyst median target: 1:2.5. Against the PFS NAV anchor: 1:3.3. Against the spot NAV estimate (C$8.76) the mathematical R:R exceeds 1:15 but should be treated as asymmetric tail exposure, not a base case. Risk-reward score: 88.
Relative Strength vs TSX Materials (XMA.TO)
| Window | MNO.TO | XMA.TO | Relative Strength | Signal |
|---|
| 6 month | +44.4% | +28.5% | +15.9 pts | Outperform |
| 3 month | +9.7% | +8.9% | +0.8 pts | In line |
| 1 month | −5.6% | −1.4% | −4.2 pts | Underperform |
6-month RS confirms the primary uptrend outperforms sector. 1-month RS has turned negative as MNO pulled back from the C$2.05 Feb 27 high faster than the broader base-metals index — typical of a mean-reversion move in a higher-beta name after a parabolic run. The daily timeframe is in "weakening + support_breakdown" mode per MTF analysis, supporting the interpretation of a pullback within a larger uptrend. Relative strength score: 68.
Macro Overlay (High Sensitivity — Materials)
Mining/Materials is flagged as High macro sensitivity per the skill matrix, so macro gets a 20% weight in the Timing pillar (vs 10% default). The current macro stack is decisively positive for this ticker: copper trending hard (+20.6% over the last 4 months), gold at all-time highs, yield curve positive +50 bps (normalised), 10Y at 4.33% and stable, USD easing. The one soft spot is the Canadian labour market (prior print −83.9k employment change), which partly explains the Mar 19–20 sector-wide pullback visible in both MNO and XMA. Macro overlay score: 85.
Sentiment & Analyst Grades (Firm/Date/Action)
Note: Firm-specific grade actions with dates are unavailable for TSX:MNO — FMP's per-firm grades endpoint returned HTTP 402 (Canadian ticker tier limitation). Only the aggregated Yahoo distribution is available. The table below shows the news-derived catalyst actions as a proxy.
| Date | Source | Action / Headline | Tone |
|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Proactive / PDAC | CEO Clark highlights DFS progress, IRR >61%, C$10M exploration, LSE dual-listing plans | Positive |
| 2026-02-17 | Junior Mining Network | Post-financing acceleration of 2026 field & corporate programmes after C$57.5M closing | Positive |
| 2026-02 (multiple) | Globe & Mail / wires | "Fresh financing to fast-track Cabaçal restart and exploration push"; 10,750m drill programme | Positive |
| 2026-01-16 | Investing.com (Stifel) | "3 best copper stocks" — sector-wide positive coverage on copper rally thesis | Positive (sector) |
| 2025-10-30 | Yahoo Finance / company PR | Preliminary Licence unanimously approved by Mato Grosso CONSEMA Council | Major positive catalyst |
Tone is uniformly positive across the last six months. The PR-heavy weighting in the news feed (expected for a junior developer) is down-weighted per the skill's News Tone Weighting Rules. Sentiment score: 78. If per-firm grade actions become available, the score could move ~5 points in either direction based on specific target revisions.
Catalyst Clustering (0–12 months)
| Catalyst | Timeframe | Impact |
|---|
| Installation Licence (IL) submission / approval | H1 2026 (imminent) | High — last major permit de-risk |
| Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) publication | 2026 (mid-late) | High — sets construction capex, re-rates NAV |
| 2026 exploration drill results (10,750 m) | Rolling 2026 | Medium — resource expansion upside |
| LSE dual-listing | TBC 2026 | Medium — broadens investor base |
| Construction financing decision | Post-DFS 2026/27 | High but dilution risk attached |
Four independent near-term catalysts within 6–12 months, all with positive skew. Catalyst score: 88.
7
Economic Event Risk
The next 14 days of high-impact macro releases that could swing this stock, plus a look back at the last seven days of surprises to gauge the current macro tape. For sectors with High macro sensitivity (Materials, Financials, Rates-linked REITs), any high-impact release within 3 trading days triggers a WAIT-FOR-EVENT short-term override regardless of composite score.
Imminent Event Blackout — Short-Term Signal Override Active
Three high-impact releases scheduled for Friday 10 April 2026 (1 day from this report) will materially move base metals and mining equities:
| Date (UTC) | Country | Event | Forecast | Previous | Category |
|---|
| 2026-04-10 12:30 | US | CPI YoY (Mar) | 3.4% | 2.4% | Inflation |
| 2026-04-10 12:30 | US | CPI MoM (Mar) | 1.0% | 0.3% | Inflation |
| 2026-04-10 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY (Mar) | 2.7% | 2.5% | Inflation |
| 2026-04-10 12:30 | CA | Unemployment Rate (Mar) | 6.8% | 6.7% | Employment |
| 2026-04-10 12:30 | CA | Employment Change (Mar) | +15k | −83.9k | Employment |
| 2026-04-10 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr) | 52.0 | 53.3 | Consumer |
Recent Surprises (7 days back)
| Date | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Direction |
|---|
| 2026-04-09 | US | GDP QoQ (Q4) | 0.5% | 0.7% | Below (−28.6%) |
| 2026-04-09 | US | Core PCE YoY (Feb) | 3.0% | 3.0% | In line |
| 2026-04-07 | CA | Ivey PMI (Mar) | 49.7 | 55.9 | Below (−11.1%) |
| 2026-04-06 | US | ISM Services PMI (Mar) | 54.0 | 55.0 | Below (−1.8%) |
| 2026-04-03 | US | NFP (Mar) | +178k | +60k | Above (+197%) |
| 2026-04-03 | US | Unemployment Rate (Mar) | 4.3% | 4.4% | Below (better) |
The backdrop heading into CPI is mixed: strong NFP surprise but weakening services and Canadian Ivey PMI, and a soft Q4 GDP print. A CPI forecast of 3.4% YoY (vs 2.4% previous) is itself a large jump; if the actual prints above 3.5%, the USD-DXY rallies and base metals typically sell off 2–4% intraday. MNO's 1.262 beta means a 4% sector move is roughly a 5% individual move. Prudent to wait for the print before initiating new short-term positions.
8
Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis
Trend, RSI, and breakout/breakdown status across five timeframes (monthly, weekly, daily, hourly, 15-minute) plus a confluence verdict and a full indicator table (MACD, Bollinger Bands, EMA/SMA stack, ATR, OBV). Read this to spot textbook setups like “pullback in a higher-timeframe uptrend” or divergences that precede trend changes.
| Timeframe | Trend | RSI | Status | Bias |
|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend | 72.09 | Breakout | Bullish |
| Weekly | Uptrend | 57.76 | Breakout | Bullish |
| Daily | Weakening | 47.18 | Support breakdown | Bearish short-term |
| Hourly | Uptrend | 50.16 | Breakout (vol 2.16x) | Bullish |
| 15-minute | Uptrend | 50.23 | Breakout (vol 5.99x) | Bullish |
Confluence: strongly_bullish. The daily weakening within a strongly bullish higher-timeframe stack is the textbook "pullback in an uptrend" setup. Daily supports cluster at C$1.57–1.66 (SMA50 + bought-deal support); daily resistances at C$1.75–2.05. Daily MACD histogram has just turned positive (+0.00981) suggesting the pullback may be bottoming. ATR C$0.1066 implies ±6.2% daily range.
| Indicator | Value | Reading |
|---|
| RSI (14-day) | 50.30 | Neutral, bias up |
| MACD Histogram | +0.00981 | Turning positive |
| Bollinger Bands | 1.638 / 1.696 / 1.754 | Mid-band pivot |
| EMA 20 / 50 | 1.678 / 1.678 | Converging |
| SMA 20 / 50 / 200 | 1.668 / 1.725 / 1.301 | Price above SMA200 by 32% |
| ATR (14-day) | C$0.1066 | 6.2% daily range |
| OBV | 21,885,900 | Positive, confirming uptrend |
9
Price Chart (6-Month Daily)
A 6-month daily candlestick-equivalent line chart with SMA50 and Bollinger Bands overlaid. This is the visual companion to the MTF table above — it lets you see the pullback, the support zone, and the primary uptrend at a glance instead of inferring them from numbers.
10
Scenario Summary
Bull, Base, and Bear 12-month price paths with explicit triggers and probability weights. The base case is the probability-weighted centre of gravity; bull and bear are what must change for each tail. Read this to stress-test the core thesis and to calibrate how surprised you should be if the stock moves materially against you.
Bull Case — 12 mo target C$3.50 (+103%)
Triggers: IL approved by Q3, DFS confirms or beats PFS economics, Cu holds $5.50+/lb, exploration hits extend resource at Santa Helena, LSE listing broadens investor base. Market re-rates from 0.53x P/NAV PFS to 0.85x P/NAV as project enters construction. Analyst high target C$3.50 reached as consensus lifts.
Probability: 40%
Bear Case — 12 mo target C$1.10 (−36%)
Triggers: IL delayed >H2 2026 (political or environmental hurdle), Cu slumps to $4/lb on China demand shock, DFS reveals capex blowout (>$400M vs expected ~$250M), construction financing requires dilutive equity raise at discount. Stop loss C$1.25 triggered, worst case C$1.00–1.10.
Probability: 20%
Base Case — 12 mo target C$2.90 (+69%)
Assumptions: IL approved on schedule H1 2026, DFS published mid-to-late 2026 broadly confirming PFS economics, Cu stays $5.00–6.00/lb, no material dilution before construction decision. Stock tracks the analyst consensus median target of C$2.90 (+68.6%) by year-end 2026. R:R 1:2.5. This is the probability-weighted centre of gravity at 40% probability.
11
Entry / Exit Rules
The specific, mechanical conditions that would get you into and out of this position. Entries must satisfy five independent checks (fundamental, technical, RSI, blackout, catalyst); exits are governed by a hard stop, thesis invalidation, and three profit-take scales. Read this to convert the scores above into a concrete action plan.
Entry Conditions (all must hold)
Fundamental: Price ≤ C$2.20, net cash position intact, permitting on track — MET at C$1.72
Technical: Price in C$1.60–1.80 ideal entry zone, above C$1.58 bought-deal support — MET (C$1.72 in zone, above C$1.58)
RSI cooling: Daily RSI ≤ 55 — MET (RSI 50.3, cooled from 72 on monthly)
Short-term blackout: No high-impact event within 3 days — NOT MET (US CPI + CA jobs Apr 10)
Catalyst: Major catalyst within 6 months — MET (IL approval + DFS pending)
Exit Rules
Stop Loss: Exit if daily close < C$1.25 for 2 consecutive sessions — current buffer C$0.47 (27.3%)
Thesis Invalidation: Exit immediately if Cu < US$3.00/lb sustained OR IL rejected OR DFS materially below PFS — all CLEAR at present
Profit Target 1: Trim 1/3 at C$2.90 (analyst median, +68.6%)
Profit Target 2: Trim additional 1/3 at C$3.50 (analyst high, +103.5%)
Profit Target 3: Hold final 1/3 for post-production NAV re-rate toward C$8+ spot NAV
12
Position Sizing Context
A framework for translating conviction into an appropriate allocation given the risk per share and the sector-wide volatility. This is illustrative portfolio math only — not advice — but it shows how the stop loss, ATR, and correlation with existing holdings should constrain position size.
| Input | Value | Note |
|---|
| Entry price | C$1.72 | Current |
| Stop loss | C$1.25 | Hard stop, 2 consecutive closes below |
| Risk per share | C$0.47 | 27.3% of entry — wide by design for a junior miner |
| Suggested portfolio risk | 0.75–1.00% | Junior-miner risk bucket; Quality 80 = middle of 0.5–1.5% band |
| Implied position size (1% risk, C$100k portfolio) | ≈ C$3,660 notional (2,127 sh) | 1,000 × 0.47 / 1.72 / 0.47 math — illustrative only |
| Correlated exposure to check | Other Cu/Au developers, XMA.TO, TSX-V juniors | Avoid stacking correlated risk into a single commodity cycle |
| Event blackout adjustment | Delay initiation until after Apr 10 CPI + CA jobs | Short-term WAIT override active |
The wide stop (27.3% vs a typical 10–12% for large caps) reflects the ATR C$0.1066 and ~6.2% daily range typical of this junior miner. A tighter stop would get noise-stopped out before the thesis could play out. Sizing compensates by reducing notional exposure, not by tightening the stop.
13
Calibration Snapshot
A machine-readable snapshot of every score, sub-score, confidence percentage, key level, delta vs prior report, and signal override that drove this report. Saved alongside the HTML as calibration-MNO-20260409-0743.json so the next run can compute deltas and the watchlist monitor can trigger alerts without parsing HTML.
Saved as calibration-MNO-20260409-0743.json. Short signal raw = STRONG BUY (83.8), overridden to WAIT FOR EVENT by imminent CPI / jobs release. Medium and long horizons both STRONG BUY. All scores include +5 Quality / +5 Valuation / +3 Timing driver adjustments. No Do-Not-Buy triggers fired.
{
"ticker": "MNO.TO",
"exchange_ticker": "TSX:MNO",
"company": "Meridian Mining UK Societas",
"isin": "GB00BVPND783",
"date": "2026-04-09",
"version": "v5",
"price": 1.72,
"currency": "CAD",
"quality_score": 80,
"valuation_score": 89,
"timing_score": 83,
"driver_score": 88,
"short_composite": 83.8,
"medium_composite": 84.5,
"long_composite": 83.3,
"signal_short": "WAIT FOR EVENT",
"signal_short_raw": "STRONG BUY",
"signal_medium": "STRONG BUY",
"signal_long": "STRONG BUY",
"short_confidence": 63,
"medium_confidence": 66,
"long_confidence": 68,
"imminent_event_blackout": true,
"events": ["US CPI 2026-04-10", "CA Unemployment 2026-04-10"],
"key_levels": {
"stop_loss": 1.25,
"ideal_entry": "1.60-1.80",
"resistance_52w": 2.05,
"pfs_nav": 3.26,
"spot_nav_est": 8.76,
"analyst_median": 2.90,
"analyst_high": 3.50
}
}
14
Data Sources & Methodology
Reference material — a full audit trail of every data source used by this report, showing which endpoints were fully available (✓), which required fallback (⚠), and which failed (×), along with the provenance-based confidence haircuts that were applied. Consult this if a number in the report looks off, or to understand why confidence is lower than the raw composite score would suggest.
Data Source Status
✓
get_company_profile — FMP (full)
✓
get_stock_snapshot — yfinance fallback
✓
get_financial_ratios — FMP (full)
✓
get_income_statement — 6 quarters
✓
get_multi_timeframe_analysis — all 5 timeframes
✓
get_yahoo_prices (MNO+XMA) — 130 daily bars each
✓
get_technical_indicators — RSI/MACD/BB/EMA/SMA/ATR
⚠
get_price_target_consensus — yfinance fallback (6 analysts)
⚠
get_grades_consensus — yfinance fallback (distribution only)
✗
get_stock_grades — FMP HTTP 402 (CA ticker tier limit)
✓
get_ratings_snapshot — FMP C- (cross-ref only)
✓
get_polygon_news & get_stock_news — yfinance fallback (both)
✓
search_financial_news (Tavily) — 10 results
✓
get_economic_calendar — 85 events, 14-day window
✓
get_key_economic_indicators — FRED
✓
get_economic_series PCOPPUSDM — 24 months copper
Impact on scores: Analyst data is sourced via yfinance fallback (Polygon/FMP do not cover TSX:MNO at current tier). FMP per-firm grade actions unavailable — we rely on aggregated Yahoo distribution (4 SB / 2 B / 0 H / 0 S) instead of firm/date/action table. Timing confidence reduced from baseline 70% to 55% combining a −10 imminent-event penalty (US CPI + CA jobs Apr 10) and a −5 yfinance-fallback haircut on technical provenance. Quality and Valuation confidence reduced modestly (72% / 70%) to reflect yfinance dependency on analyst targets.
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.