The event this refresh was scheduled for — Q2 2026 earnings (after close 5 Aug) — has landed: revenue $10.17bn beat (~$9.74bn est, +49.8% y/y) and EPS $9.19 beat (~$8.67), but net income fell 10.9% y/y on operating-margin compression from heavy investment spending (1P/logistics, marketing, Mexico bank), and the stock sold off 4.8% (1,922.57 → 1,830). Signal unchanged HOLD / HOLD / HOLD — still 'great business, wrong price.'
MercadoLibre is Latin America's largest online commerce and fintech platform, operating across ~18 countries with dominant positions in Brazil, Mexico and Argentina. Its core is a marketplace (Mercado Libre) that connects buyers and sellers, wrapped in a vertically integrated stack the region's rivals struggle to match: a proprietary logistics network (Mercado Envios), a fast-scaling digital-payments and lending arm (Mercado Pago / Mercado Credito, now a $16.4bn credit book, +75% y/y), plus advertising and a Mexican digital-bank build-out. What sets it apart is that integration and scale — first-party logistics, an embedded wallet used both on- and off-platform, and network effects across ~100m active users — which is why it captures more of each transaction than a pure marketplace and is often called 'the Amazon plus the PayPal of Latin America.' For a reader: a high-growth emerging-market compounder that is deliberately trading near-term margin for share and financial-services depth.
Lifecycle & sector: High-growth stage, classified as EM Payments / Consumer-Discretionary internet retail hybrid (marketplace + Mercado Pago fintech + logistics + advertising + Mercado Credito). Scored on TPV/GMV growth, take-rate stability and operating leverage rather than a mature P/E lens.
Q2 2026 (reported after close 5 Aug, the event that drove this refresh): Revenue $10.17bn, +49.8% y/y — beating the ~$9.74bn consensus and the fastest pace in ~4 years, led by Brazil. But operating margin was ~6.7% (Q1 6.9%) and net income fell to $466m, −10.9% y/y, even as diluted EPS of $9.19 beat the ~$8.67 estimate. The market read the top-line beat as second to the margin story and sold the stock ~4.8% the next day. This is the recurring MELI pattern: growth reinvestment (1P/logistics + Mexico bank + credit build-out) suppressing near-term operating profit — note credit quality improved this quarter (NIMAL 17.8% → 20.7% q/q), so the margin hit is investment-driven, not a credit deterioration.
| Sub-signal | Value | Read | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (Q2 y/y) | +49.8% | Top-decile for scale; accelerating | 93 |
| Operating margin (Q2 / TTM) | 6.7% / 8.3% | Compressed vs ~12.9% a year ago — reinvestment, not a broken model | 55 |
| Gross margin (TTM) | 42.7% | Healthy for a logistics-heavy hybrid | 72 |
| ROE (TTM) | ~27.5% | Strong capital efficiency | 85 |
| Net income (Q2 y/y) | −10.9% | Down y/y — investment spending + a credit-card mix shift (credit quality improved); the reason the stock sold off | 48 |
| Balance sheet | Int. cov ~14.5x | Sound; leverage is credit-book funding | 75 |
Moat score 76. The durable edges are the two-sided marketplace network effect and a proprietary logistics + embedded-wallet stack that is very hard to replicate in-region — both scored off the competitive read below, not asserted.
| Rival | Threat type | Share trajectory vs MELI | Moat-erosion vector |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sea / Shopee | Direct marketplace (Brazil) | MELI holding/gaining; Shopee subsidising | Price competition → pressures Pricing Power & margin, not (yet) share |
| PDD / Temu | Cross-border ultra-cheap goods | MELI holding | Resets consumer price expectations → margin |
| Amazon | Direct e-commerce (BR/MX) | MELI leading in-region | Logistics parity attempts → Cost Advantage |
| Nubank / StoneCo | Fintech (Mercado Pago/Credito) | MELI gaining users; Nu larger in pure banking | Credit competition → loan pricing / risk |
ROIC / capital allocation: High-ROE (~27%), low-capex model ($1.3bn capex vs Amazon's tens of billions for a comparable footprint). Management has a consistent record of trading near-term margin for durable share and new revenue lines (Pago, Envios, ads, credit, Mexico bank) that later compound — the capital-allocation quality is a core part of the 83.
The anchor (warranted-multiple). r = 4.63% (10-Y, 5 Aug) + 4.5% ERP + 0.0% add-on (Quality ≥65) = 9.13%. Two-stage DCF with a disciplined g_near of 18% (secular-growth internet; ~34% consensus haircut ×0.75, then capped/flagged) and g_term 3% → warranted ≈ 31x. The actual clean trailing P/E is ~50x ($1,830 / $36.75 TTM EPS) → ratio ~1.6 → Expensive. It is also above every relevant sector guardrail floor (Consumer-Disc 24x, Comm-Services 26x, most-generous Info-Tech 33x) — so Expensive on the floor alone, independent of the ratio.
| Multiple | Value | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Trailing P/E (clean ≈ reported) | ~50x | Expensive vs ~31x warranted |
| Forward P/E FY26 / FY27 / FY28 | ~46x / ~32x / ~23x | Only cheap if the ~40%/yr EPS ramp lands |
| P/S (TTM) | 2.6x | Low vs its own ~10x history — the bulls' anchor |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | ~33x | Rich |
| Forward PEG | ~1.13 | Reasonable IF forward growth is delivered |
| P/B | ~12x | Rich; ROE-justified but not cheap |
FCF yield screens high but is float-inflated by Mercado Pago deposits and credit-book funding flowing through operating cash flow — it is not a clean owner-yield, so it is not used as the anchor here. Flagged, not scored.
Analyst cross-check (10% + 5%). Consensus target $2,167 (median $2,150, high $2,600, low $1,750, n=24; Yahoo corroborates mean ~$2,229 / high $2,800) — ~+18% upside to the median, so the Street sees the name as attractive. Grades: 1 Strong Buy / 23 Buy / 9 Hold / 0 Sell (72.7% bullish, consensus Buy). FMP health rating B+ (overall 3) with ROE and DCF sub-scores maxed at 5 but P/E and P/B sub-scores at 1 — the split that captures 'great business, expensive stock.' Note the sharp divergence: our framework's warranted fair value (~$1,220) sits ~43% below the Street's $2,150 median (and ~33% below spot). The gap is almost entirely the growth assumption — the Street underwrites the ramp; the anchor haircuts it.
Primary driver: the secular migration of Latin American commerce and financial services online — Latin Americans make ~7 online purchases/year vs ~41 in the US, a long runway MELI is the prime beneficiary of. Secondary: Argentina/Brazil macro + ARS/BRL FX, which swing reported results and consumer purchasing power.
| Horizon | Read | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Historical (12–24m) | Adoption + GMV/TPV compounding ~40%+; Brazil accelerating | 78 |
| Current | Q2 revenue +49.8% confirms demand intact; offset by armed EM-currency stress (Iran/Hormuz, Aug-1 tariff wall) | 65 |
| Forward (6–12m) | Runway intact; Mexico bank + credit seasoning; FX the swing factor | 70 |
Amplification role: a 70 Tailwind would normally be eligible to lift a base BUY to STRONG BUY — but here it is blocked twice over: the base signal is HOLD (HOLD never amplifies), and the valuation sits in the Expensive band (STRONG BUY requires a warranted ratio below 1.2x). The driver therefore supports the thesis but cannot move the signal.
Thesis-invalidation floor: sustained GMV/TPV deceleration below ~20%, OR a credit-quality break (NPL/provisions spike) forcing the lending book to shrink. Neither is present — Q2 kept growth at ~50% — but the credit line is the one to watch.
Per the 2026-07-30 macro state, EM Equities are U / SU / N (Short Underperform, Medium Strong-Underperform, Long Neutral) and MELI's GICS sector Consumer Discretionary (XLY) is U / SU / U and macro-penalised (0% portfolio weight). Regime: Stagflation-lite with an energy shock re-armed (Iran/Hormuz, Brent ~$90–92) and the Aug-1 tariff wall → EM-currency stress. Net pressure is a near-and-medium Headwind, long-term faded to Neutral. This is a scorecard/narrative input only — it CANNOT move the signal (base HOLD + Expensive already block amplification). Unchanged from the prior report, which already reflected this state (stance Neutral, pressure Headwind, conviction 42).
Source: asset-class-map (EM Equities) + sector-map (XLY) · Macro report 2026-07-30
Risk-reward: the stock climbed into Q2 to ~$1,922 (testing the 200-DMA at ~$1,889) and then gapped down 4.8% to $1,830 on 5–6 Aug — a clean rejection at long-term resistance on ~2.2x average volume. Daily MACD histogram rolled negative (−2.3) and RSI fell from ~69 to ~51. Support sits at $1,760, then the $1,546–$1,593 shelf and the $1,495 52-week low; the hard stop is ~$1,480.
Relative strength: a laggard — down ~23% over 12 months and ~28% off its mid-2025 peak — but up ~22% off the May $1,495 low. Sits at ~32% of its 52-week range: beaten-down, not yet a confirmed turn.
Position risk (ATR): daily ATR ~$61 (~3.3% of price). Stop at $1,480 is ~$350 / ~5.7 ATR below — a wide stop, i.e. a poor risk-reward entry right here.
Macro overlay (weight 0.15): unfavourable — EM/XLY headwind, VIX ~15.8 (calm), 10-Y 4.63%. Sentiment: retail/press strongly bullish ('once-in-a-decade', 'Amazon of LatAm') but two H1 sell-side downgrades (UBS, Citi to Neutral) linger; post-Q2 the covering firms maintained (Cantor Overweight, BTIG Buy on 6 Aug). Net neutral-to-mixed. Catalyst: Q2 now resolved; next is Q3 on ~4 Nov — a clean calendar for ~3 months.
Confluence: monthly uptrend, weekly downtrend (below the 50-week ~$1,943), daily 'recovering' but pinned under the 200-DMA. Honest read: mixed, and the near-term tape just failed at resistance.
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Non-Farm Payrolls / Unemployment (Jul) | High | 80k / 4.2% | 57k / 4.2% | ⚠ Medium | EM risk-appetite + USD/rates read; indirect for MELI |
| 2026-08-12 | OPEC Monthly Report | Medium | — | — | ⚠ Medium | Oil/energy-shock path feeds EM-currency stress |
| ~2026-08-13 | US CPI (Jul) | High | — | — | ⚠ Medium | Rate path → growth-stock discount rate + EM FX |
| 2026-11-04 | MELI Q3 2026 earnings | High | EPS ~$9.56 / rev ~$10.27bn | EPS $9.19 | ✅ Yes | The next company-specific catalyst; sets the next update |
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Q2 2026 EARNINGS (MELI) | Rev $10.17bn / EPS $9.19 | ~$9.74bn / ~$8.67 | Beat both | Stock −4.8% — margin/credit read outweighed the top-line beat |
| 2026-08-06 | Challenger Job Cuts (Jul) | 33.4k | 59k | −43% (below) | Softer labour — mildly dovish |
| 2026-08-06 | Nonfarm Productivity (Q2) | 1.4% | 0.6% | +133% (above) | Disinflationary at the margin |
The one event that mattered — Q2 2026 earnings — has now landed: a revenue and EPS beat, but a y/y net-income decline that the market punished with a 4.8% drop. With Q2 resolved there is no company-specific catalyst until Q3 on ~4 Nov; the near-term risk is macro (payrolls, CPI, the oil/EM-FX path), to which MELI is only indirectly sensitive as an EM name.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend ↑ | Bullish | 47 | hist deeply − | S: 1063 R: 1825/2162 | resistance test | 0.3x |
| Weekly | Downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 51 | hist improving | S: 1495/1546/1593 R: 2428+ | below 50-wk 1943 | 1.1x |
| Daily | Recovering → | Neutral | 51 | hist − (rolled) | S: 1760 R: 1889(200-DMA)/1905 | rejected at 200-DMA | 2.9x |
| Hourly | Downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 49 | hist + | S: 1743/1766 R: 1906 | support breakdown | thin |
| 15-min | Recovering → | Neutral | 61 | hist + | S: 1766 R: 1880 | minor bounce | thin |
| Confluence: Mixed / capped · MTF Score 47 | |||||||
Monthly still up, but the weekly is in a downtrend below its 50-week (~$1,943) and the daily recovery was rejected exactly at the 200-DMA (~$1,889) on the Q2 print. That is a textbook 'lower-timeframe rally into higher-timeframe resistance that failed' — not a breakout. A reclaim of $1,889–$1,905 on volume would flip the near-term picture; until then the tape is a range between ~$1,760 support and the 200-DMA.
MELI 6-month daily. The Feb–May slide to the $1,495 low, a recovery off it, and the Q2 rejection at the 200-DMA (~$1,889) back to $1,830.
H2-2026 operating leverage snaps back as the investment spend moderates and the credit book seasons, Mexico bank + advertising surprise, and 2027E EPS ramps ~40%. Multiple holds as growth re-rates the name; Shopee/Temu subsidy pressure eases. A move back through the 200-DMA and $2,000 opens the Street's $2,150–$2,600 zone.
Revenue keeps compounding ~35–45% while margins recover only gradually; the credit book grows without a quality break. The stock grinds toward the low end of the Street target range as forward multiples compress into the earnings ramp — roughly the analyst-implied path, +~7% from here.
COMPETITIVE/CREDIT trigger: Shopee/Temu price competition keeps margins depressed and MELI keeps trading profit for share, AND/OR a credit-quality break (NPL/provisions spike) forces the lending book to slow, on top of EM-currency stress (Iran/Hormuz, tariff wall) hitting ARS/BRL. The stock retests the $1,546–$1,495 shelf as the ~50x multiple de-rates on lower forward EPS.
Forecast: Fundamental group: UNLIKELY on the anchor basis — a move to ~$1,220 fair value is a ~33% drawdown that would need a credit/margin break, not the base case. Technical group: MODERATE — a reclaim of the 200-DMA (~$1,889, ~3% above) could come within 2–4 weeks IF the tape stabilises, but the Q2 rejection resets the clock; the more reachable early entry is a pullback into $1,760 support (LOW-MODERATE, days-to-weeks on any market wobble). Catalyst group: next window is Q3 on 4 Nov — catalyst-dependent, not time-projectable.
Forecast: Stop unlikely in 4–6 weeks — price is ~19% above $1,480 and above the 50-DMA. Thesis-invalidation clear (growth ~50%, credit not broken). Profit-target ~17% away.
What you're risking: the drop to the $1,480 stop is −$350 / −19%; the bear case ($1,520, −17%) is a live path via margin/credit/EM-FX. You'd be buying an Expensive name (~50x vs ~31x warranted) into a failed 200-DMA test and a weekly downtrend — no entry group is met. Path risk is macro (payrolls/CPI/oil) for ~3 months until Q3.
What you're gaining: immediate participation in a ~50%-revenue-growth compounder with base upside to ~$1,950 (+7%) and bull to ~$2,450 (+34%), plus the free optionality (Mexico bank, ads SOTP, 2027 EPS ramp). Risk-reward from here is roughly 1:1 on the base — waiting for a reclaim of $1,889 or a pullback into $1,760 materially improves the deal.
What you're giving up: base-case upside to ~$1,950 (+7%) and the growth optionality; you'd be selling a name the Street still targets ~+18% higher, at ~32% of its 52-week range.
What you're protecting: the ~$310 drawdown to the bear case if margins/credit disappoint. But no exit rule is triggered right now — no stop hit, no thesis break, not at the profit target. Mechanically this is a HOLD/accumulate-on-weakness zone, not a sell.
Position sizing not computed — no allocation or portfolio role was specified for this watchlist refresh. For context only: the §12 Conviction Ladder reads Wait (0 of 3 entry groups met), so the framework would suggest waiting for an entry path (a 200-DMA reclaim or a pullback into $1,760) rather than initiating here. Daily ATR ~3.3% and beta ~1.31 mean a position carries ~30% more daily risk than the market.
{
"ticker": "MELI",
"exchange": "NASDAQ",
"exchange_ticker": "NASDAQ:MELI",
"isin": "US58733R1023",
"api_ticker": "MELI",
"finder_ticker": "MELI",
"finder_exchange": "\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 NASDAQ",
"section": "Emerging-Market Equities",
"company": "MercadoLibre, Inc.",
"date": "2026-08-07",
"time": "1030",
"version": "v6",
"currency": "USD",
"analysis_status": "on-going",
"user_context": {
"horizon": "all_horizons",
"allocation_pct": null,
"portfolio_role": null
},
"user_horizon": null,
"user_allocation_pct": null,
"portfolio_role": null,
"price_at_rating": 1830.0,
"price_at_rating_currency": "USD",
"signal_short": "HOLD",
"signal_medium": "HOLD",
"signal_long": "HOLD",
"primary_signal": "HOLD",
"quality_score": 83,
"lifecycle_stage": "high-growth",
"quality_detail": {
"q2_revenue_usd_bn": 10.17,
"q2_revenue_growth_yoy_pct": 49.8,
"q2_op_margin_pct": 6.7,
"q2_net_income_usd_m": 466,
"q2_net_income_growth_yoy_pct": -10.9,
"q2_eps_diluted": 9.19,
"q2_eps_consensus": 8.67,
"q2_rev_consensus_usd_bn": 9.74,
"revenue_ttm_usd_bn": 35.2,
"op_margin_pct_ttm": 8.3,
"net_margin_ttm_pct": 5.3,
"gross_margin_ttm_pct": 42.7,
"roe_pct": 27.5,
"moat_score": 76,
"industry_benchmark_name": "TPV growth + take-rate stability",
"industry_benchmark_score": 88,
"note": "Q2 2026 (reported after close 5 Aug) = the event that drove this refresh. Revenue and EPS beat; net income -10.9% y/y on operating-margin compression from heavy investment spending (1P/logistics, marketing, Mexico bank) plus a credit-card mix shift - NOT rising provisions (credit quality IMPROVED: NIMAL 17.8%->20.7% q/q as Brazil provisions normalised). Stock -4.8% post-print. Quality nudged 84->83 to reflect the confirmed y/y net-income decline."
},
"valuation_score": 28,
"val_band": "expensive",
"warranted_multiple": 31,
"actual_multiple": 50,
"warranted_ratio": 1.61,
"val_multiple_basis": "clean P/E (trailing)",
"discount_rate_r": 9.13,
"risk_free_10y": 4.63,
"g_near": 18,
"g_term": 3,
"valuation_detail": {
"pe_ttm": 49.8,
"clean_pe": 49.8,
"forward_pe_2026": 46.5,
"forward_pe_2027": 32.5,
"forward_pe_2028": 23.4,
"forward_peg": 1.13,
"price_to_sales_ttm": 2.64,
"price_to_book_ttm": 11.84,
"ev_ebitda_ttm": 33.0,
"fcf_yield_caveat": "float-inflated by Mercado Pago deposits + credit-book funding; not the anchor",
"analyst_consensus_target": 2166.67,
"analyst_target_median": 2150,
"analyst_target_high": 2600,
"analyst_target_low": 1750,
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 17.5,
"analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
"analyst_bullish_pct": 72.7,
"analyst_coverage_count": 24,
"fmp_rating": "B+",
"fmp_overall_score": 3,
"warranted_note": "r=9.13% (10Y 4.63 + ERP 4.5 + 0 add-on, BQ>=65); two-stage DCF g_near 18% / g_term 3% -> warranted ~31x. Actual clean trailing ~50x -> ratio ~1.6 -> Expensive, and above every sector guardrail (24/26/33x).",
"implied_growth_read": "At $1,830 the market embeds ~24-26% 5yr EPS growth vs our disciplined 18% -> price embeds more growth than fundamentals support.",
"framework_vs_street": "Anchor fair value ~$1,220 vs Street median $2,150 (~43% below street; ~33% below spot) = a growth-assumption disagreement, not a data gap."
},
"timing_score": 47,
"timing_detail": {
"mtf_confluence": "mixed / capped",
"rsi_daily": 51.2,
"macd_hist_daily": -2.3,
"risk_reward_score": 45,
"relative_strength_vs_spy": "laggard -23% 1yr, +22% off 1495 low",
"range_position_52w_pct": 32,
"dynamic_macro_weight": 0.15,
"atr_daily": 61,
"support": [
1760,
1593,
1546,
1495
],
"resistance": [
1889,
1905,
2000,
2150
],
"note": "Recovery to ~1922 rejected at the 200-DMA (1889) on the Q2 print, gapped down 4.8% to 1830 on 2.2x volume; MACD hist rolled negative. Timing 53->47."
},
"driver_score": 70,
"driver_label": "Tailwind",
"driver_detail": {
"primary_driver": "LatAm digital-commerce + fintech adoption",
"secondary_driver": "Argentina/Brazil macro + ARS/BRL FX",
"historical": 78,
"current": 65,
"forward": 70,
"amplification_eligible": "Tailwind (65-79) but amplification BLOCKED: base signal HOLD (never amplifies) AND Expensive valuation (ratio 1.6x >= 1.2x). Q2 +49.8% revenue confirms the secular driver intact.",
"driver_commodity_trend": "n/a - not a commodity-leveraged name",
"thesis_invalidation_floor": "sustained GMV/TPV deceleration below ~20% OR a credit-quality break (NPL/provisions spike) forcing the lending book to shrink"
},
"economic_alignment_stance": "Neutral",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 42,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Headwind",
"economic_alignment_source": "asset-class-map (EM Equities) + sector-map (XLY)",
"macro_report_date": "2026-07-30",
"economic_alignment_detail": "EM Equities U/SU/N + XLY U/SU/U per 2026-07-30 macro state (Stagflation-lite, energy shock re-armed, Aug-1 tariff wall -> EM-currency stress). Neutral/Headwind, conviction 42. Scorecard input only - cannot move the signal (base HOLD + Expensive block amplification). UNCHANGED from prior report.",
"economic_alignment_stance_prior": "Neutral",
"economic_alignment_pressure_prior": "Headwind",
"nonop_pct_of_net_income": -16.5,
"earnings_quality_note": "Q2 below-operating line is a net drag (operating income 683 -> pre-tax 606, i.e. -77m FX/interest/other). Net income is DEPRESSED not inflated; no AI-markup / mark-to-market. Clean P/E ~= reported P/E ~50x.",
"clean_pe": 49.8,
"clean_peg": 1.13,
"competitive_share_trajectory": "gaining",
"competitive_threat_level": "moderate",
"moat_score": 76,
"overall_confidence": 62,
"confidence_note": "HOLD across all horizons, unchanged. Q2 2026 beat revenue+EPS but net income -10.9% y/y; stock -4.8%. Valuation Expensive (~50x vs ~31x warranted) caps at HOLD and blocks the Driver-70 tailwind. Earnings blackout cleared. Real deltas: price -2.7% (1881.57->1830), timing 53->47 (200-DMA rejection), quality 84->83. Framework fair value ~$1,220 diverges sharply from Street median $2,150.",
"fair_value_est": 1220,
"stop_loss": 1480,
"target_price": 2150,
"support_1": 1760,
"support_2": 1593,
"support_3": 1495,
"resistance_1": 1889,
"resistance_2": 1905,
"resistance_3": 2000,
"scenarios": {
"bull": {
"prob": 27,
"range": "2300-2600",
"target": 2450
},
"base": {
"prob": 50,
"range": "1760-2100",
"target": 1950
},
"bear": {
"prob": 23,
"range": "1480-1560",
"target": 1520
}
},
"scenario_bull_target": 2450,
"scenario_base_target": 1950,
"scenario_bear_target": 1520,
"hard_gate_state": "caution",
"gates_triggered": [],
"gates_caution": [
"Valuation Ceiling: clean ~50x is >=1.4x its ~31x warranted multiple and above every sector guardrail (24/26/33x) -> caps the signal at HOLD and blocks amplification.",
"Fintech credit-book: Mercado Credito book +75% y/y to $16.4bn; credit quality IMPROVED in Q2 (NIMAL 17.8%->20.7% q/q, Brazil provisions normalised, NPLs near lows). The y/y net-income decline was driven by investment spending + a credit-card mix shift, NOT rising provisions. Credit book still the biggest forward item - monitor NPL/provisions at Q3.",
"Earnings blackout CLEARED this run (Q2 reported 5 Aug; next Q3 ~4 Nov)."
],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"entry_criteria_total": 3,
"entry_criteria_met": 0,
"entry_groups_met": 0,
"entry_conviction": "Wait",
"short_entry_confirmed": false,
"short_hold_reason": "expensive",
"exit_criteria_total": 3,
"exit_criteria_met": 0,
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"analyst_consensus_target": 2166.67,
"analyst_target_high": 2600,
"analyst_target_low": 1750,
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 17.5,
"analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
"analyst_bullish_pct": 72.7,
"analyst_coverage_count": 24,
"recent_upgrades_30d": 0,
"recent_downgrades_30d": 0,
"recent_grade_action": "Post-Q2 (6 Aug) Cantor Fitzgerald maintained Overweight, BTIG maintained Buy. H1-2026 saw UBS (late Apr) and Citi (13 May) downgrade Buy->Neutral; Citi reiterated Neutral 15 Jul.",
"fcf_yield": null,
"implied_growth_rate": null,
"industry_benchmark_name": "TPV growth + take-rate stability",
"industry_benchmark_value": "Q2 revenue +49.8% y/y; GMV/TPV ~40%+; take rate stable",
"industry_benchmark_score": 88,
"next_catalyst": "MELI Q3 2026 earnings ~2026-11-04 (EPS est $9.56 / rev est $10.27bn). Q2 2026 resolved 5 Aug.",
"next_update_date": "2026-08-21",
"next_check_date": "2026-08-21",
"next_update_basis": "default +14d (Q2 now behind us; Q3 2026 earnings 2026-11-04 is beyond the 14-day window). 2026-08-21 is a trading day (Fri).",
"prior_report": {
"date": "2026-07-31",
"price": 1881.57,
"signal_short": "HOLD",
"signal_medium": "HOLD",
"signal_long": "HOLD",
"quality": 84,
"valuation": 28,
"timing": 53,
"driver": 70,
"econ_stance": "Neutral",
"econ_pressure": "Headwind"
}
}
HOLD across all three horizons, unchanged from the prior report. Q2 2026 beat on revenue and EPS but net income fell y/y and the stock sold off 4.8% — confirming the 'great business, deliberately spending margin' story rather than changing the signal. Valuation remains Expensive (~50x vs ~31x warranted), which caps the name at HOLD and blocks the Driver-70 tailwind. The earnings blackout gate has cleared.