MercadoLibre is Latin America's largest e-commerce and digital-payments platform, operating across 18 countries with its two biggest markets in Brazil and Mexico. Its core is a two-sided online marketplace (Mercado Libre) wrapped in an owned logistics network (Mercado Envios), paired with a fast-growing fintech arm (Mercado Pago) that runs payments, a digital wallet, and a consumer/merchant credit book (Mercado Credito). What sets it apart is the flywheel between the two: the marketplace feeds the payments and lending business, while owned fulfilment and a dominant regional brand give it a logistics-and-data edge rivals must out-spend to match. For a reader, think of it as Amazon and a digital bank fused into one company, built for a region where both online shopping and formal finance are still under-penetrated and growing fast.
MercadoLibre sits firmly in the high-growth lifecycle stage — trailing-twelve-month revenue of ~$31.8bn is up 49% year-on-year, gross merchandise value (GMV) is compounding in the low-40s%, and the fintech arm is scaling faster still. The business is judged on growth quality and unit economics, not on mature-company profitability metrics. No new earnings since the prior report — Q1 2026 (filed 8 May 2026) remains the latest print, so the Quality score is unchanged at 84. Q2 2026 lands after the close on 5 August 2026; consensus is ~$9.74bn revenue and ~$8.67 EPS.
| Sub-signal | Reading (latest print, Q1 2026 TTM) | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue trajectory | TTM revenue $31.8bn, +49% YoY; GMV +42%, acquiring TPV +39% (FX-neutral +41%) | 90 |
| Profitability vs history | Operating margin 9.6% TTM (Q1 6.9%, pressured by credit-book investment + logistics); gross margin 43.9%; net margin 6.0% | 62 |
| Cash generation | Reported FCF yield double-digit, but float-inflated by Mercado Pago deposits + credit-book funding — a lender-style balance sheet, not clean commerce FCF | 60 |
| Balance-sheet health | Cash ~$5.7bn; interest coverage ~17.5x; current ratio 1.16; debt largely fintech funding, not distress leverage | 72 |
| Return on equity | ROE ~26-31% — high for the sector even with the margin drag | 80 |
| Fintech / credit scale | Mercado Crédito book ~$14.6bn, +87% YoY; provisions +106% (≈2/3 of the margin hit); NIMAL 17.8% vs 22.7% prior; 15-90d NPL 8.0% (stable) | 58 |
Take-rate stable/rising, but competitive intensity in both commerce and fintech constrains outright pricing.
Two-sided marketplace + a payments/credit flywheel; more buyers and sellers deepen both liquidity and the data edge.
Sellers embedded in Mercado Envios logistics + Mercado Pago rails; consumers hold balances and credit lines. Sticky, though consumer commerce is contestable.
Owned first-party logistics network across LatAm is the durable structural edge rivals must out-spend to replicate.
Dominant regional brand + fintech licences; no patent moat.
Moat score (average) = 76/100 — a wide, logistics-and-payments-anchored moat, capped by contestable consumer commerce.
| Rival | Where it attacks | Share trajectory |
|---|---|---|
| Amazon | 1P e-commerce in Brazil & Mexico; Prime logistics | Growing but sub-scale vs MELI's fulfilment density; contained |
| Shopee (Sea Ltd) | Low-price 3P marketplace, aggressive subsidies in Brazil | Re-accelerating in Brazil — the most active near-term commerce threat |
| Nubank | Digital banking & consumer credit in Brazil/Mexico | Scaling fast in fintech; the direct Mercado Pago/Credito rival |
| Local incumbents | Magazine Luiza, Americanas (BR); Coppel (MX) | Losing share to MELI; weak |
Great business, wrong price — that is the whole valuation story, and it is the single reason the signal is HOLD across every horizon. On the warranted-multiple anchor, MercadoLibre is firmly in the Expensive band, and it has become more expensive since the prior report on two counts: the price is up ~2% and the 10-year Treasury has risen to 4.67% (from 4.48%), which lifts the discount rate and lowers every warranted multiple.
| Metric | Value | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Clean P/E (TTM, FX-normalised) | ~47x | Expensive vs ~31x warranted |
| Reported P/E (TTM) | 49.7x | Net income depressed by FX drag, so clean ≈ reported |
| Forward P/E 2026E / 2027E / 2028E | 47.8x / 33.4x / 24.1x | 2026 is a down EPS year; leverage snaps back 2027-28 |
| Forward PEG | 1.15 | Fair only if the ~34% growth actually lands |
| EV/Revenue TTM | ~3.2x | Not demanding for 49% growth — the P/E is the binding lens |
| Price / Book | 13.1x | Rich |
| Analyst consensus target (FMP) | $2,150 median ($1,750-$2,600; 24-analyst mean $2,215) | Street sees +14% to median |
| Grades consensus | Buy — 1 Strong Buy / 23 Buy / 9 Hold / 0 Sell (72.7% bullish) | Buy-tilted, but two H2 downgrades to Neutral (UBS, Citi) |
| FMP financial-health rating | B (overall 3/5) | P/E & P/B score 1/5 (rich); ROE & DCF score 5/5 |
Framework fair value ≈ $1,240 (warranted ~31× on ~$40 normalised EPS) sits well below both the ~$1,882 price and the Street's ~$2,150 median. The gap is the embedded-growth premium: at $1,882 the market is pricing ~24-26% five-year EPS growth versus our disciplined 18% haircut. The optionality is real — Mexico build-out, a NIMAL/credit-margin recovery, an advertising sum-of-the-parts, and the 2H26 operating-leverage snap-back into a +40%-ish 2027E EPS — but that is a tilt inside the Expensive band, not a re-rating that clears it. Earnings quality is clean: unlike the mega-cap AI names, reported net income is if anything depressed by a ~$0.7bn TTM below-the-line FX/interest drag (largely Argentine peso), not inflated by mark-to-market gains — so clean P/E ≈ reported P/E and there is no earnings-quality flatter to unwind.
The dominant force under MercadoLibre is the secular digitisation of Latin-American commerce and finance — e-commerce penetration and formal-financial inclusion are both still low and rising, and MELI is the regional platform capturing both. That structural driver is a genuine Tailwind (70/100) and intact. The secondary driver — Argentina/Brazil macro and ARS/BRL FX — is the near-term swing factor, and it has softened this run: the Iran/Hormuz energy shock and the 1 August tariff wall have re-armed EM-currency stress, a mild negative on the "current" reading.
| Horizon | Driver reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Historical | LatAm digital-commerce + fintech adoption has been a powerful, durable multi-year tailwind | 78 |
| Current | Structural adoption intact, but EM-currency stress (Iran oil shock, Aug-1 tariffs) is a near-term FX headwind on the LatAm consumer | 65 |
| Forward | Penetration runway + credit-margin recovery + Mexico/ads optionality keep the forward tailwind firm | 70 |
On the 30 Jul macro state, MercadoLibre's two macro anchors both weakened. EM Equities are Underperform (short) / STRONG Underperform (medium) / Neutral (long) — the medium-term rolled from Neutral to Strong-Underperform and the long-term recovery sleeve softened from Outperform to Neutral. MELI's GICS sector, Consumer Discretionary (XLY), is Underperform / Strong-Underperform / Underperform and carries a 0% model-portfolio weight. The regime is Stagflation-lite with a re-armed energy shock (Iran/Hormuz re-escalation, Brent ~$90-92) and the 1 August tariff wall, both of which pressure EM-currency and the LatAm consumer near term. Net: a near-and-medium-term Headwind, a long-term that has faded to Neutral. Because the base signal is HOLD and the valuation is Expensive, this is a scorecard/narrative delta only — it cannot move the signal. FLIP from Neutral/Mixed (conviction 52) to Neutral/Headwind (conviction 42).
Source: asset-class-map (EM Equities) + sector-map (XLY) · Macro report 2026-07-30
Short-term momentum has recovered the stock back to the underside of its 200-day moving average (~$1,894) — a textbook overhead-resistance test, not a clean breakout. The daily chart is constructive (RSI 66, reclaimed the 50-DMA at ~$1,721, above the 20-DMA) but is pinned right at the 200-DMA into a still-intact weekly downtrend (price below the weekly 50-DMA ~$1,955). The intraday tape reads strongly bullish, but on thin volume, so the honest confluence is mixed-and-capped: bullish drift into a wall, with a binary Q2 earnings print five days out.
| Layer | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Multi-timeframe trend | Monthly uptrend; weekly downtrend; daily recovering into the 200-DMA; hourly/15-min strong-up on thin volume | 55 |
| Risk-reward at ~$1,882 | Upside to base ~$1,950 (+3.6%) vs downside to $1,760 support (-6.5%) — unattractive R:R right at resistance | 48 |
| Relative strength | Laggard over 3-6m; improved +26% off the $1,495 low; vs EM improving but into a weak-EM tape | 52 |
| Macro overlay (weight 0.15) | EM Equities + XLY both Underperform near/medium term — a live headwind on the timing overlay | 35 |
| Sentiment | Grades Buy-tilted (72.7% bullish) but no fresh upgrades in 30d; Citi Neutral maintained 15 Jul | 50 |
| Catalyst | Q2 2026 earnings after the close 5 Aug — a high-impact binary; core-PCE + Aug-1 tariffs alongside | 66 |
Support: $1,760 / $1,593 / $1,546 / $1,495 (52-wk low). Resistance: $1,890 / $1,894 (200-DMA) / $1,905 / $2,000. Range position ~37% of the 52-week band. Entering directly ahead of the Q2 print adds event risk on top of an already-capped Expensive name.
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2026 | US Core PCE (Jun) | High | 0.2% m/m | 0.2% | Yes | Fed's preferred gauge; a hot read hardens the tight-policy regime that pressures EM/duration |
| 01 Aug 2026 | Aug-1 tariff deadline | High | — | — | Yes | Whether the tariff wall actually lands — a direct EM-risk-appetite and FX event |
| 05 Aug 2026 | MELI Q2 2026 earnings (a/c) | Critical | ~$9.74bn rev / ~$8.67 EPS | Q1 $8.85bn / $8.23 | Yes | The company-specific binary — GMV, fintech TPV, credit provisions, margin and guidance |
| 01 Aug 2026 | US Jobs (Jul) | High | ~110k | — | Yes | Growth read into the stagflation-lite debate; risk-appetite input for EM |
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jul 2026 | FOMC decision | Hold 3.75% | Hold | In line | Neutral — no cut; tight policy persists, a mild EM headwind |
| 29 Jul 2026 | Iran/Hormuz re-escalation | Missiles + strikes | — | Negative | Risk-off; Brent +~8% to ~$90-92; EM-currency stress re-armed |
The next two weeks are unusually event-dense for MELI: core-PCE and the tariff deadline set the EM-risk backdrop, then the Q2 print on 5 Aug is the swing factor. The report re-runs the day after earnings.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend | Up | 48 | hist -83 (fading) | S 1,063 / R 2,162 | res-breakout | 0.79x |
| Weekly | Downtrend | Down | 54 | hist +39 (improving) | 50-DMA 1,955 overhead | — | 0.69x |
| Daily | Recovering | Up | 66 | hist ~0 (flat) | 200-DMA 1,894 overhead | res-test | 1.06x |
| Hourly | Strong up | Up | 54 | hist -0.6 | R 1,902 | res-breakout | thin |
| 15-min | Strong up | Up | 53 | hist +0.3 | R 1,890 | res-breakout | thin |
| Confluence: Mixed / bullish-but-capped · MTF Score 53 | |||||||
The raw tool prints 'strongly bullish' because the intraday frames dominate the count, but those are thin-volume. The load-bearing read is the daily pinned at the 200-DMA (~$1,894) inside a weekly downtrend — a resistance test, not a confirmed breakout. A daily close decisively above ~$1,905 on volume would flip the medium-frame; failure here points back toward $1,760 then $1,593.
6-month daily: recovery off the $1,495 low stalling right at the 200-DMA (~$1,894), the key wall. SMA50 (~$1,721) reclaimed and rising. Illustrative daily closes.
Q2 (5 Aug) beats — GMV/TPV re-accelerate, NIMAL/credit-margin recovers, Mexico and advertising inflect, guidance raised — while Iran de-escalates and EM risk appetite relieves. The multiple re-rates toward the Street's $2,150-$2,600. This is the analyst-consensus path, but it needs both the print AND the macro to cooperate.
Q2 lands roughly in line (~$9.7bn revenue, ~$8.67 EPS) with provisions still heavy. The stock ranges $1,760-$2,050, unable to clear the 200-DMA decisively because the Expensive multiple caps upside and the EM macro stays a headwind. Most probable — the business compounds, the price does not re-rate.
The Aug-1 tariff wall lands and the Iran/oil shock deepens, hitting EM risk appetite and the ARS/BRL; a soft Q2 (GMV deceleration or a credit-quality wobble — provisions/NPL up) compounds it. The stock retests the $1,495 52-week low. Weighted slightly higher this run given the live macro deterioration.
Probability-weighted fair value ≈ $1,933 (0.28·2,450 + 0.50·1,950 + 0.22·1,520). That the weighted number sits ~3% above the framework's ~$1,240 anchor fair value reflects the Street-driven bull tail — but it is still essentially flat to the ~$1,882 price, which is exactly why the signal is HOLD: no edge either way at this level.
Forecast: No entry path is open. The cleanest setups are a decisive post-Q2 (5 Aug) beat-and-raise that clears ~$1,905 on volume, OR — more attractive on price — a pullback into $1,760/$1,593 support. Even then, the Expensive valuation caps any resulting position at a starter until the multiple compresses toward the ~$31x warranted line.
Forecast: No exit trigger is live (there is no position to exit — the stance is Hold/Wait). The stop at $1,480 sits ~21% below the price.
Position sizing not computed — no portfolio allocation or role was specified for this refresh. As a general note, an Expensive-band HOLD with a live earnings blackout is a name to hold if owned and to wait on if not; any new exposure would be a starter only, and better initiated on a pullback to support than at the 200-DMA into the print.
{
"ticker": "MELI",
"exchange": "NASDAQ",
"exchange_ticker": "NASDAQ:MELI",
"isin": "US58733R1023",
"api_ticker": "MELI",
"finder_ticker": "MELI",
"finder_exchange": "\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 NASDAQ",
"section": "Emerging-Market Equities",
"company": "MercadoLibre, Inc.",
"date": "2026-07-31",
"time": "1200",
"version": "v6",
"currency": "USD",
"analysis_status": "on-going",
"user_context": {
"horizon": "all_horizons",
"allocation_pct": null,
"portfolio_role": null
},
"user_horizon": null,
"user_allocation_pct": null,
"portfolio_role": null,
"price_at_rating": 1881.57,
"price_at_rating_currency": "USD",
"signal_short": "HOLD",
"signal_medium": "HOLD",
"signal_long": "HOLD",
"primary_signal": null,
"quality_score": 84,
"lifecycle_stage": "high-growth",
"quality_detail": {
"revenue_growth_yoy_pct": 49.0,
"revenue_ttm_usd_bn": 31.8,
"gmv_growth_yoy_pct": 42,
"acquiring_tpv_growth_yoy_pct": 39,
"op_margin_pct_ttm": 9.6,
"op_margin_pct_q1": 6.9,
"net_margin_ttm_pct": 6.0,
"gross_margin_ttm_pct": 43.9,
"roe_pct": 29.0,
"moat_score": 76,
"industry_benchmark_name": "TPV growth + take-rate stability",
"industry_benchmark_score": 88,
"credit_book_usd_bn": 14.6,
"credit_book_growth_yoy_pct": 87,
"provisions_growth_yoy_pct": 106,
"nimal_pct": 17.8,
"nimal_prior_pct": 22.7,
"npl_15_90d_pct": 8.0,
"note": "No new earnings vs prior report \u2014 Q1 2026 (filed 2026-05-08) remains the latest print; Quality unchanged at 84. Q2 2026 after close 2026-08-05 (consensus ~$9.74bn rev / ~$8.67 EPS).",
"credit_caveat": "gross credit revenue is lender revenue net of provisions, NOT clean commerce revenue"
},
"valuation_score": 28,
"val_band": "expensive",
"warranted_multiple": 31,
"actual_multiple": 47,
"warranted_ratio": 1.52,
"val_multiple_basis": "clean P/E",
"discount_rate_r": 9.2,
"risk_free_10y": 4.67,
"g_near": 18,
"g_term": 3,
"valuation_detail": {
"pe_ttm": 49.6,
"clean_pe": 47.0,
"forward_pe_2026": 47.8,
"forward_pe_2027": 33.4,
"forward_pe_2028": 24.1,
"forward_peg": 1.15,
"ev_revenue_ttm": 3.2,
"price_to_sales_ttm": 2.99,
"price_to_book_ttm": 13.08,
"ev_ebitda_ttm": 30.7,
"fcf_yield_pct_reported": 11.2,
"fcf_caveat": "float-inflated by Mercado Pago deposits + credit-book funding; not the anchor",
"historical_valuation_decile": 4,
"analyst_consensus_target": 2166.67,
"analyst_target_median": 2150,
"analyst_target_high": 2600,
"analyst_target_low": 1750,
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 14.3,
"analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
"analyst_bullish_pct": 72.7,
"analyst_coverage_count": 24,
"analyst_coverage_last_month": 0,
"fmp_rating": "B",
"fmp_overall_score": 3,
"guardrail_note": "clean ~47x is \u22651.4x its ~31x warranted multiple AND above every relevant guardrail floor (Consumer-Discretionary 24x, Comm-Services 26x, most-generous Info-Tech 33x) \u2192 Expensive on the floor alone, independent of the ratio.",
"warranted_note": "r=9.2% (10Y 4.67% + ERP 4.5% + 0.0 add-on, BQ\u226565); two-stage DCF g_near 18% (secular-growth internet, ~34% cons \u00d70.75 haircut, capped/flagged) / g_term 3% \u2192 warranted \u2248 31x. 10Y rose 4.48\u21924.67 vs prior, so warranted fell 32\u219231.",
"embedded_optionality": "Mexico build-out, NIMAL/credit-margin recovery, advertising SOTP, 2H26 operating-leverage snap-back into 2027E EPS +40%ish \u2014 +tilt inside the band, not a re-rate that clears Expensive",
"implied_growth_read": "At $1,882 the market embeds \u224824-26% 5yr EPS growth vs our disciplined 18% haircut \u2014 price embeds more growth than the fundamentals support."
},
"timing_score": 53,
"timing_detail": {
"mtf_trend_score": 55,
"mtf_confluence": "mixed / bullish-but-capped",
"mtf_note": "monthly uptrend (RSI 48, MACD hist deeply negative), weekly downtrend (below 50-DMA 1955, MACD hist improving), daily recovering (RSI 66.3, reclaimed 50-DMA 1721, pinned UNDER 200-DMA 1894), hourly/15min strong-up on thin volume. Honest confluence mixed-and-capped: resistance test at the 200-DMA, not a breakout. ~37% of 52-wk range.",
"rsi_daily": 66.31,
"macd_hist_daily": -0.1,
"risk_reward_score": 48,
"relative_strength_vs_spy": "laggard 3-6m, improved +26% off 1495 low",
"relative_strength_vs_em": "improving into a weak-EM tape",
"range_position_52w_pct": 37,
"dynamic_macro_weight": 0.15,
"macro_score": 35,
"sentiment_score": 50,
"catalyst_score": 66,
"support": [
1760,
1593,
1546,
1495
],
"resistance": [
1890,
1894,
1905,
2000
],
"note": "Price +2.1% since prior (1843\u21921882); recovery stalling at the 200-DMA (1894) into a weekly downtrend and a binary Q2 print 5 Aug."
},
"driver_score": 70,
"driver_label": "Tailwind",
"driver_detail": {
"primary_driver": "LatAm consumer + digital-commerce/fintech adoption",
"secondary_driver": "Argentina/Brazil macro + ARS/BRL FX",
"historical": 78,
"current": 65,
"forward": 70,
"amplification_eligible": "driver Tailwind (65-79); would amplify a base BUY to STRONG BUY but amplification is BLOCKED by the Expensive valuation (~47x vs ~31x warranted, above every guardrail) AND the base signal is HOLD (HOLD never amplifies) \u2192 signal capped at HOLD across horizons. Current sub-score trimmed 68\u219265 on Iran/tariff EM-currency stress.",
"thesis_invalidation_floor": "sustained GMV/TPV deceleration below ~20% OR a credit-quality break (NPL/provisions spike) forcing the lending book to shrink"
},
"economic_alignment_stance": "Neutral",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 42,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Headwind",
"economic_alignment_source": "asset-class-map (EM Equities) + sector-map (XLY)",
"macro_report_date": "2026-07-30",
"economic_alignment_detail": "EM Equities U/SU/N per 2026-07-30 macro state (Short Underperform, Medium STRONG Underperform, Long Neutral) \u2014 DETERIORATED from U/N/O on 2026-07-14: medium rolled N\u2192SU and the long recovery sleeve softened O\u2192N. MELI's GICS sector Consumer Discretionary (XLY) U/SU/U and macro-penalised (0% portfolio weight). Regime: Stagflation-lite, energy shock re-armed (Iran/Hormuz re-escalation, Brent ~$90-92) + Aug-1 tariff wall \u2192 EM-currency stress. Net stance Neutral/Headwind: near-and-medium-term Headwind (EM+XLY U/SU), long-term faded to Neutral. Scorecard/narrative delta only \u2014 it CANNOT move the signal (base HOLD + Expensive blocks amplification). FLIP from Neutral/Mixed (conviction 52) to Neutral/Headwind (conviction 42) as EM medium/long rolled over.",
"economic_alignment_stance_prior": "Neutral",
"economic_alignment_pressure_prior": "Mixed",
"nonop_pct_of_net_income": -7.7,
"earnings_quality_note": "Reported net income is if anything DEPRESSED, not inflated \u2014 the below-operating-income line is a net drag (FX/interest/other \u2248 \u2212$0.7bn TTM), largely Argentine peso. No AI-markup / mark-to-market inflation. clean P/E \u2248 reported P/E \u2248 47-49x. The credit book is scored net of provisions (lender caveat), not as clean commerce revenue.",
"clean_pe": 47.0,
"clean_peg": 1.15,
"competitive_share_trajectory": "gaining",
"competitive_threat_level": "moderate",
"moat_score": 76,
"overall_confidence": 62,
"confidence_note": "Moderate. Signal HOLD across all horizons, unchanged from prior. Valuation is Expensive on the warranted-multiple anchor (clean ~47x vs ~31x warranted = 1.52x, above every sector guardrail), which caps the composite at HOLD and blocks the Driver-70 Tailwind. Quality (84) unchanged \u2014 no new earnings (Q1 2026 still latest; Q2 after close 5 Aug). Real deltas this run: price +2.1% (1843\u21921882, more expensive), 10-Y up 4.48\u21924.67 (warranted 32\u219231, ratio 1.44\u21921.52), Economic Alignment deteriorated to Headwind (EM U/N/O\u2192U/SU/N, XLY worse; conviction 52\u219242), timing mixed-and-capped at the 200-DMA. Framework HOLD (fair value \u2248$1,240 on the anchor) diverges sharply from Street Buy (median $2,150, +14%) \u2014 great business, wrong price.",
"fair_value_est": 1240,
"stop_loss": 1480,
"target_price": 2150,
"support_1": 1760,
"support_2": 1593,
"support_3": 1495,
"resistance_1": 1894,
"resistance_2": 1905,
"resistance_3": 2000,
"scenarios": {
"bull": {
"prob": 28,
"range": "2350-2600",
"target": 2450
},
"base": {
"prob": 50,
"range": "1760-2050",
"target": 1950
},
"bear": {
"prob": 22,
"range": "1480-1560",
"target": 1520
}
},
"scenario_bull_target": 2450,
"scenario_base_target": 1950,
"scenario_bear_target": 1520,
"hard_gate_state": "caution",
"gates_triggered": [],
"gates_caution": [
"Valuation Ceiling: clean ~47x is \u22651.4x its ~31x warranted multiple and above every sector guardrail (24x/26x/33x) \u2192 caps the signal at HOLD and blocks amplification.",
"Fintech credit-book: Mercado Cr\u00e9dito +87% to $14.6B; provisions +106% (\u22482/3 of the margin hit); NIMAL 17.8% vs 22.7%; NPL 8.0% stable. Same Q1 2026 print as prior \u2014 monitor at Q2, not triggered.",
"Earnings blackout: Q2 2026 after close 5 Aug (5 days out) \u2014 avoid initiating into the binary."
],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"entry_criteria_total": 3,
"entry_criteria_met": 0,
"entry_groups_met": 0,
"entry_conviction": "Wait",
"short_entry_confirmed": false,
"exit_criteria_total": 3,
"exit_criteria_met": 0,
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"analyst_consensus_target": 2166.67,
"analyst_target_high": 2600,
"analyst_target_low": 1750,
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 14.3,
"analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
"analyst_bullish_pct": 72.7,
"analyst_coverage_count": 24,
"recent_upgrades_30d": 0,
"recent_downgrades_30d": 0,
"recent_grade_action": "Citigroup maintained Neutral 2026-07-15; no upgrades in 30d. H2-2026 saw UBS (29 Apr) and Citi (13 May) downgrade Buy\u2192Neutral.",
"fcf_yield": 11.2,
"implied_growth_rate": null,
"industry_benchmark_name": "TPV growth + take-rate stability",
"industry_benchmark_value": "Acquiring TPV +39% (FXN +41%) / take rate stable",
"industry_benchmark_score": 88,
"next_catalyst": "MELI Q2 2026 earnings after close 2026-08-05 (web-confirmed via press release/StockTitan; consensus ~$9.74bn rev / ~$8.67 EPS). Core-PCE (31 Jul) + Aug-1 tariff deadline land alongside.",
"next_update_date": "2026-08-06",
"next_check_date": "2026-08-06",
"next_update_basis": "Q2 2026 earnings after close 5 Aug (5 days out, inside the 14-day cap) \u2014 the outlook-changing event \u2014 plus one trading day \u2192 6 Aug. Earnings <14d so the +1-day rule applies rather than +14d.",
"scenario_base_range": "1760-2050",
"prior_report": {
"date": "2026-07-16",
"price": 1843.19,
"signal_short": "HOLD",
"signal_medium": "HOLD",
"signal_long": "HOLD",
"quality": 84,
"valuation": 30,
"timing": 51,
"driver": 71,
"econ_stance": "Neutral",
"econ_pressure": "Mixed"
}
}
The framework's HOLD diverges sharply from the Street's Buy (median $2,150, +14%). Both can be right: MercadoLibre is a genuinely high-quality, wide-moat compounder (Quality 84) whose price simply embeds more growth than a disciplined anchor supports (Valuation 28). The disagreement is about price, not business.