NASDAQ:MELI Signal v6 — MercadoLibre, Inc.

Horizon	Signal	Composite Score	Confidence	Key Driver
Short-term (1–3 mo)	HOLD	55	Moderate	Expensive valuation (clean 46x vs ~32x warranted) caps the signal; multi-timeframe confluence bearish, 200-DMA overhead at $1,917; no entry group met.
Medium-term (6–12 mo)	HOLD	55	Moderate	High-quality, secular-growth business at a rich price. Driver Tailwind and long-run EM Outperform can't amplify a HOLD, and can't clear the Expensive band.
Long-term (3–5 yr)	HOLD	57	Moderate	Best structural case (EM Equities Long Outperform, dominant LatAm ecosystem) but the anchor still reads Expensive; wait for a better price or an earnings-driven re-rating of the multiple.

Lifecycle: high-growth. TTM revenue ≈ $31.8bn, +49% YoY in Q1 2026, GMV +42%, acquiring TPV +39% (+41% FX-neutral). MercadoLibre is the clear regional leader in both e-commerce and digital payments, with a self-reinforcing flywheel — marketplace → payments → credit → logistics → advertising. No new earnings since the prior report (Q1 2026, filed 2026-05-08, remains the latest print; Q2 2026 ~Aug 5), so Quality is unchanged at 84.

Sub-signal	Reading	Score
Revenue trajectory	+49% YoY — exceptional for its scale ($31.8bn TTM)	92
Profitability vs peers	Op margin 9.6% TTM (Q1 6.9%, −600bps YoY) — deliberately reinvested; gross margin 43.9%	62
Cash generation	Strong operating cash flow, but reported FCF yield ~11.5% is float-inflated by Pago deposits + credit funding — discount it	66
Balance-sheet health	Current ratio 1.16, interest coverage 17.5x, modest net debt	78
ROE	26.4% — high, though flattered by leverage	82

Industry benchmark — TPV growth + take-rate stability: 88/100. Acquiring TPV +39% (+41% FX-neutral) with a stable-to-rising take rate is textbook EM-payments health: volume scaling without margin erosion on the payments line. The margin compression is a chosen reinvestment (free shipping, fulfillment, credit), not a demand or pricing problem.

Moat score: 76. The network-effect flywheel is the crown jewel; switching costs are real but consumer-grade, and the fintech flank is the most contested.

Competitive Environment. MercadoLibre is gaining share in core commerce, with a moderate overall threat level. The named contest: Amazon (persistent but sub-scale in most MELI markets ex-Mexico, where competition is sharpest), Shopee/Sea Ltd (aggressive on price/low-ticket, retreated from some LatAm markets but still a factor), and on fintech Nubank and local neobanks (attacking Mercado Pago's credit and wallet flank directly). MELI's edge is the commerce-to-fintech flywheel that pure players lack; the vulnerability is that its fastest-growing, richest-margin fintech line is also where the best-funded challengers concentrate.

Rival	Front	Share trajectory
Amazon	E-commerce (esp. Mexico)	Holding; MELI ahead ex-Mexico
Shopee / Sea	Low-ticket e-commerce	Retrenched; MELI gaining
Nubank / neobanks	Fintech / credit	Attacking Pago's flank

ROIC & capital allocation: high incremental returns on the marketplace; the credit book is the swing factor — well-underwritten growth is accretive, a credit break is the main way capital allocation turns value-destructive. Founder-led culture, disciplined reinvestment, no dividend of note.

Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness

Sector-appropriate multiples, FCF yield, reverse-DCF implied growth, embedded optionality, and the analyst-consensus cross-check.

Valuation Attractiveness — Pillar Score

Expensive on the warranted-multiple anchor — a great business at a rich price.

clean P/E ≈ 46x vs ~32x warranted (ratio 1.44) · above the 24x Discretionary guardrail · confidence High

Warranted-multiple anchor. Discount rate r = 9.0% (10-Y Treasury 4.48% [macro state 2026-07-14] + 4.5% ERP + 0.0 risk add-on, since Business Quality ≥ 65). Disciplined growth: g_near = 18% (secular-growth internet bucket; consensus ~24% haircut ×0.75), g_term = 3%. The two-stage DCF yields a warranted P/E ≈ 32x. The actual clean P/E is ≈ 46x.

Anchor verdict: Expensive. Actual ÷ warranted = 46 ÷ 32 = 1.44 (≥ 1.40 → Expensive, <40 score). And the actual 46x sits well above the 24x Consumer-Discretionary guardrail — Expensive on the floor alone, independent of the ratio. Both tests agree. This caps the composite at HOLD and blocks amplification.

Lens	Reading	Verdict
Warranted-multiple anchor (40%)	46x vs 32x warranted (ratio 1.44)	Expensive
Sector median (20%)	Rich vs global e-commerce; premium vs EM peers	Full/Expensive
Own-history decile (15%)	~4th decile — mid-range of its own 5yr band (off the 2024 highs)	Fair-edge
PEG (10%)	Forward PEG ≈ 1.08 (2026 P/E 46.9 / ~44% 26→27 EPS growth)	Fair on growth
Analyst consensus (15%)	Median target $2,150 (+17.5%), 23 Buy / 9 Hold, Buy consensus	Bullish

Implied-growth read (colour, not the score): at $1,843 the market embeds roughly 24–26% five-year EPS growth; our disciplined estimate is 18%. The price embeds more growth than the fundamentals conservatively support — hence the Expensive read despite a benign PEG. The forward curve does the heavy lifting: forward P/E compresses to ~33x (2027) and ~24x (2028) if the operating-leverage snap-back lands, but that is 12–24 months of flawless execution already in the price.

The honest tension: the framework says HOLD with a warranted fair value around $1,280; the Street says Buy at a $2,150 median. Both can be internally consistent — the anchor judges price against fundamentals (rates + disciplined growth), the Street against momentum and a bull operating-leverage case. We flag the gap plainly rather than split the difference.

Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers

The dominant external force the stock is tethered to, scored 0–100. A context pillar: it does not change the base signal — it feeds amplification (tailwind ≥65 can lift BUY→STRONG BUY; headwind ≤35 can push SELL→STRONG SELL).

Primary Driver

LatAm digital-commerce + fintech adoption

Tailwind — amplification BLOCKED

The structural driver — secular digital-commerce and fintech adoption across Latin America, with a still-low banked/e-commerce penetration base — remains a genuine Tailwind (score 71). Secondary: Argentina/Brazil macro and ARS/BRL FX, which cut both ways.

Horizon	Driver read	Score
Short	Adoption intact; FX and near-term EM risk-off temper it	68
Medium	Mexico build-out + credit/ads optionality	70
Long	Dominant ecosystem, low regional penetration	74

Amplification note: a Tailwind driver would normally lift a base BUY toward STRONG BUY. Here it does nothing — twice over: (1) the base signal is HOLD, and HOLD never amplifies; (2) even a BUY would be blocked because the Expensive valuation band is not STRONG-BUY-eligible. The driver tailwind is real but strategically inert at this price.

Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment

How the current economic climate sits relative to this stock, read from the latest Macro-Economic report. Classifies the macro pressure (Tailwind / Neutral / Headwind) — the second amplification input — and frames a long entry as Trend-Following or Contrarian with a 0–100 conviction.

Stance · Pressure

Neutral · Mixed

conviction

EM Equities are rated U/N/O in the 2026-07-14 macro state — Short Underperform, Medium Neutral, Long Outperform — a near-term SOFTENING from N/O/O on 2026-06-26 (EM trimmed near-term, kept as a contrarian long-recovery sleeve). MELI's GICS sector, Consumer Discretionary (XLY), reads U/N/N and is macro-penalised (0% portfolio weight). Regime: Stagflation-lite, narrow lead (energy-supply-shock driven), with Soft Landing closing on cool June CPI. Net: near-term Headwind, long-term Tailwind → stance FLIPS to Neutral/Mixed (from prior Trend-Following/Tailwind, conviction 64). This is a scorecard/narrative delta only — it cannot move the signal, because the base is HOLD and the Expensive valuation blocks amplification.

Source: asset-class-map (EM Equities) + sector-map (XLY), macro state 2026-07-14 · Macro report 2026-07-14

Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing

The risk-reward framework, relative strength vs SPY and the sector ETF, the macro overlay, news-derived sentiment, and the catalyst cluster.

Entry/Exit Timing — Pillar Score

Short-lived daily strength inside a bearish multi-timeframe confluence, with the 200-DMA overhead.

daily RSI 64.6, reclaimed SMA50 $1,687 · weekly downtrend · confluence bearish · ~25% of 52-wk range

Price is +4.5% since the prior report ($1,763 → $1,843), riding a daily recovery (reclaimed the 50-DMA at $1,687, RSI 64.6, MACD positive cross) — but that strength runs into a bearish higher-timeframe backdrop: the weekly is in a downtrend (below its EMA50 $1,893 and SMA50 $1,977) and the 200-DMA at $1,917 is immediate overhead resistance. Hourly is weakening and 15-min is in a strong downtrend. The MTF confluence reads bearish.

Timeframe	Trend	Note
Monthly	Uptrend (fading)	RSI 49, MACD histogram negative
Weekly	Downtrend	Below EMA50/SMA50
Daily	Recovering	RSI 64.6, above SMA20/50, below SMA200 $1,917
Hourly	Weakening	Support breakdown
15-min	Strong downtrend	—

Relative strength: a 3–6-month laggard vs SPY, improving on the 1-month (+23% off the $1,495 low); improving vs EM. Risk-reward at $1,843 is unattractive — limited room to the $1,876/$1,917 resistance shelf, meaningful air down to the $1,738/$1,593 support. Position ~25% up its 52-week range. Timing is neutral-to-slightly-negative; no short-term technical entry is triggered.

Economic Event Risk

High-impact macro releases in the next 14 days that could swing this stock, plus the last 7 days of surprises.

Upcoming events (next 30 days)

Date	Event	Impact	Forecast	Previous	Relevant?	Why
2026-07-29	FOMC rate decision + press conference	High	Hold 3.75%	3.75%	Yes	Sets the discount-rate backdrop for a long-duration growth name; the next update is scheduled for after this.
2026-07-30	US Core PCE (Jun) + Q2 GDP advance	High	Core PCE +0.3% MoM	+0.3%	Yes	Confirms/undercuts the disinflation the June CPI signalled — feeds the rate path and EM risk appetite.
2026-08-05	MELI Q2 2026 earnings (est., after close)	High	—	—	Yes	The next fundamental catalyst — margin trajectory, credit-book quality, GMV/TPV growth. Beyond the two-week cap.

Recent surprises (last 7 days)

Date	Event	Actual	Forecast	Surprise	Impact
2026-07-14	US CPI (Jun)	3.5% YoY / core 2.6%	3.8% / 2.8%	Cooler (dovish)	Supportive of EM/duration
2026-07-15	US PPI (Jun)	−0.3% MoM	—	Cooler (dovish)	Reinforces disinflation read
2026-07-15	China Q2 GDP	4.3% YoY	4.5%	Slight miss	Mild EM-demand negative

A distinctly dovish inflation week (cool June CPI + negative PPI) has lifted the odds of a softer Fed path — supportive at the margin for long-duration EM growth like MELI, but not enough to change a signal that is gated on valuation. The FOMC on 2026-07-29 is the next outlook-changing event and sets the update cadence.

Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis

Trend, RSI and breakout status across monthly / weekly / daily / hourly / 15-minute, with a confluence verdict.

Timeframe	Trend	Direction	RSI	MACD	Key S/R	Breakout	Vol
Monthly	Uptrend (fading)	→	49.5	hist −	S 1,063 / R 1,825	—	0.42
Weekly	Downtrend	↓	52.3	hist + (from deep −)	S 1,495 / R 2,428	—	0.56
Daily	Recovering	↑	64.6	+cross	S 1,738 / R 1,876	reclaimed SMA50	1.16
Hourly	Weakening	↓	49.0	flat	S 1,820 / R 1,905	support breakdown	—
15-min	Strong downtrend	↓	55.2	hist +	S 1,820 / R 1,905	—	—
Confluence: bearish · MTF Score 42

Three of five timeframes are bearish; the daily recovery is the lone constructive read and it stalls into the 200-DMA at $1,917. The weekly downtrend and negative monthly MACD momentum dominate. Net: no technical entry, and the risk-reward from $1,843 is poor into overhead resistance.

Price Chart (6-Month Daily)

A 6-month daily close line with SMA50 and key support/resistance — the visual companion to the MTF table.

MELI recovered ~23% off the $1,495 low but is capped by the 200-DMA at $1,917; the anchor's fair value (~$1,280) sits below the current price.

Scenario Summary

Bull / Base / Bear 12-month price paths with triggers and probability weights.

Bull $2,500 (28%)

The 2H26 operating-leverage snap-back lands: margins inflect, credit stays clean, Mexico and advertising compound, and the multiple holds while 2027 EPS (+~44%) does the work. A dovish Fed re-rates EM duration. Approaches the Street high ($2,600) and consensus ($2,150).

Base $1,900 (52%)

Growth stays strong but margin reinvestment continues and the rich multiple keeps a lid on the price; the stock ranges roughly $1,750–$2,000, chopping around the 200-DMA. Great business, no re-rating catalyst until Q2 earnings clarify the margin path. HOLD is the correct posture.

Bear $1,520 (20%)

A credit-quality break (provisions/NPL spike forcing the lending book to shrink), an EM/FX risk-off, or a growth-deceleration scare compresses the multiple back toward the anchor's fair value. Retests the $1,546/$1,495 floor.

Probability-weighted fair value ≈ $1,992 (0.28×$2,500 + 0.52×$1,900 + 0.20×$1,520). That sits just above the current $1,843 but below the warranted anchor's structural fair value (~$1,280) — the scenarios embed the market's willingness to pay up for a dominant grower, while the anchor holds the fundamentals line. The overlap between the two is exactly why the signal is HOLD, not SELL: not cheap enough to buy, not broken enough to sell.

Entry / Exit Rules

Three independent entry paths (Fundamental · Technical · Catalyst) and three exit triggers (Stop-Loss · Thesis · Profit-Target). Any one entry path is a valid entry — the more that agree, the larger the position the conviction ladder suggests. Exits are graded by severity, not count.

How to read this — the Conviction Ladder

The three entry groups are alternative paths to a buy, not a checklist. A group counts only when all its sub-conditions hold. How many groups are satisfied sets the suggested size — it does not gate whether you may enter: 1 group = Half-Size (a valid starter/scale-in), 2 = Full-Size, 3 = Over-Size (highest conviction); 0 = Wait (no path open yet). A strong overall signal can still read Wait here when the stock is well above its entry zones — that flags "good business, no entry edge right now," not a contradiction. Exits are graded by severity of what is live, not by a count: a hard stop is an Exit on its own.

Entry conviction: Wait0 of 3 groups met — no entry path open

Fundamental — not MET

Valuation gate blocks it

⛔ Clean P/E within ~1.2x of warranted (≤ ~38x) — currently 46x

✅ Business Quality ≥ 70 (currently 84)

✅ GMV/TPV growth holding > 30% (currently +42%/+39%)

Technical — not MET

Bearish confluence, capped by 200-DMA

⛔ Weekly trend up / reclaim of 200-DMA ($1,917) on volume

⛔ MTF confluence not bearish (currently bearish)

⛔ Constructive risk-reward to next resistance

Catalyst — not MET

Next catalyst is Q2 earnings (Aug 5)

· Q2 2026 print confirms margin inflection / clean credit

⛔ Analyst upgrade cycle re-engages (0 upgrades last 30d)

· Dovish Fed re-rates EM duration (watch FOMC 07-29)

Forecast: Rule Forecast: an entry is most likely to open on a Catalyst path — a Q2 2026 print (~Aug 5) that confirms the 2H26 operating-leverage inflection with clean credit, which could re-rate sentiment even at a rich multiple, OR a pullback toward the $1,593–$1,738 support that narrows the price-to-warranted gap. Absent either, the Fundamental group stays blocked by the Valuation gate and no entry triggers. A Short-horizon BUY additionally requires the Technical or Catalyst group to be met (technical-confirmation cap) — currently neither is, so even a fundamental thaw would cap the Short at HOLD ('buy on confirmation').

Exit action: Holdno exit trigger is live — hold the position

Stop-Loss — not LIVE

⛔ Close below $1,480 (below the $1,495 52-wk floor)

⛔ Weekly close below $1,528 support shelf

Thesis Invalidation — not LIVE

⛔ GMV/TPV growth decelerates below ~20% sustained

⛔ Credit-quality break (NPL/provisions spike) forces the lending book to shrink

⛔ Take-rate compression signalling lost pricing power

Profit-Target — not LIVE

⛔ Approach of Street consensus $2,150

⛔ Clean P/E re-inflates well above 50x without earnings support

Forecast: No exit is live: not a holder's stock to sell here (thesis intact, above stop). For anyone holding, the discipline is to trim into $2,100+ and cut below $1,480.

Imagine you act at the current price of $1,843.19 · as of 2026-07-16

What if you bought now?

Not a buy zone. The warranted anchor's fair value is ~$1,280; a constructive accumulation zone would be the $1,546–$1,738 support band on a stabilised tape, and only for a long-horizon holder comfortable paying up for the franchise.

What if you sold now?

Not a sell. Hold above the $1,480 stop; the business is compounding and the driver is a tailwind. Trim only into the $2,100+ consensus zone.

Position Sizing Context

Illustrative portfolio math (not advice) translating conviction into an allocation given risk-per-share and volatility.

No risk budget or portfolio role was supplied on this batch run, so position sizing is not computed. As context only: MELI sits in the Emerging-Market Equities sleeve, which the 2026-07-14 model portfolio trims near-term (EM Short Underperform) while keeping it as a contrarian long-recovery holding (EM Long Outperform). A HOLD signal implies no new capital at $1,843.

Calibration Snapshot

Machine-readable snapshot of every score, level and signal, saved alongside the HTML so the next run can compute deltas.

{
  "ticker": "MELI",
  "exchange": "NASDAQ",
  "exchange_ticker": "NASDAQ:MELI",
  "isin": "US58733R1023",
  "api_ticker": "MELI",
  "finder_ticker": "MELI",
  "finder_exchange": "\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 NASDAQ",
  "section": "Emerging-Market Equities",
  "company": "MercadoLibre, Inc.",
  "date": "2026-07-16",
  "time": "",
  "version": "v6",
  "currency": "USD",
  "analysis_status": "on-going",
  "user_context": {
    "horizon": "all_horizons",
    "allocation_pct": null,
    "portfolio_role": null
  },
  "user_horizon": null,
  "user_allocation_pct": null,
  "portfolio_role": null,
  "price_at_rating": 1843.19,
  "price_at_rating_currency": "USD",
  "signal_short": "HOLD",
  "signal_medium": "HOLD",
  "signal_long": "HOLD",
  "primary_signal": null,
  "quality_score": 84,
  "lifecycle_stage": "high-growth",
  "quality_detail": {
    "revenue_growth_yoy_pct": 49.0,
    "revenue_ttm_usd_bn": 31.8,
    "gmv_growth_yoy_pct": 42,
    "acquiring_tpv_growth_yoy_pct": 39,
    "op_margin_pct_ttm": 9.6,
    "op_margin_pct_q1": 6.9,
    "net_margin_ttm_pct": 6.0,
    "gross_margin_ttm_pct": 43.9,
    "roe_pct": 26.4,
    "moat_score": 76,
    "industry_benchmark_name": "TPV growth + take-rate stability",
    "industry_benchmark_score": 88,
    "credit_book_usd_bn": 14.6,
    "credit_book_growth_yoy_pct": 87,
    "provisions_growth_yoy_pct": 106,
    "nimal_pct": 17.8,
    "nimal_prior_pct": 22.7,
    "npl_15_90d_pct": 8.0,
    "note": "No new earnings vs prior report \u2014 Q1 2026 (filed 2026-05-08) remains the latest print; Quality unchanged. Q2 2026 ~Aug 5.",
    "credit_caveat": "gross credit revenue is lender revenue net of provisions, NOT clean commerce revenue"
  },
  "valuation_score": 30,
  "val_band": "expensive",
  "warranted_multiple": 32,
  "actual_multiple": 46,
  "warranted_ratio": 1.44,
  "val_multiple_basis": "clean P/E",
  "discount_rate_r": 9.0,
  "risk_free_10y": 4.48,
  "g_near": 18,
  "g_term": 3,
  "valuation_detail": {
    "pe_ttm": 48.7,
    "clean_pe": 46.0,
    "forward_pe_2026": 46.9,
    "forward_pe_2027": 32.7,
    "forward_pe_2028": 23.7,
    "forward_peg": 1.08,
    "ev_revenue_ttm": 3.2,
    "price_to_sales_ttm": 2.94,
    "price_to_book_ttm": 12.83,
    "ev_ebitda_ttm": 30.2,
    "fcf_yield_pct_reported": 11.5,
    "fcf_caveat": "float-inflated by Mercado Pago deposits + credit-book funding; not the anchor",
    "historical_valuation_decile": 4,
    "analyst_consensus_target": 2166.67,
    "analyst_target_median": 2150,
    "analyst_target_high": 2600,
    "analyst_target_low": 1750,
    "analyst_target_upside_pct": 17.5,
    "analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
    "analyst_bullish_pct": 72.7,
    "analyst_coverage_count": 10,
    "analyst_coverage_last_month": 0,
    "fmp_rating": "B",
    "fmp_overall_score": 3,
    "guardrail_note": "clean 46x is \u22651.4x its ~32x warranted multiple AND far above the 24x Consumer-Discretionary guardrail \u2192 Expensive band on the guardrail floor alone, independent of the ratio.",
    "warranted_note": "r=9.0% (10Y 4.48% + ERP 4.5% + 0.0 add-on, BQ\u226565); two-stage DCF g_near 18% (secular-growth internet, 24%\u00d70.75 haircut) / g_term 3% \u2192 warranted \u2248 32x. Actual clean 46x.",
    "embedded_optionality": "Mexico build-out, credit-margin/NIMAL recovery, advertising SOTP, 2H26 operating-leverage snap-back into 2027E EPS +44% \u2014 +tilt inside the band, not a re-rate that clears Expensive",
    "implied_growth_read": "At $1,843 the market embeds \u224824-26% 5yr EPS growth vs our disciplined 18% haircut estimate \u2014 price embeds more growth than the fundamentals support."
  },
  "timing_score": 51,
  "timing_detail": {
    "mtf_trend_score": 55,
    "mtf_confluence": "bearish",
    "mtf_note": "monthly uptrend (RSI 49, MACD hist negative), weekly downtrend (below EMA50/SMA50 1893/1977), daily recovering (reclaimed SMA50 1687, RSI 64.6, MACD +cross, above SMA20/50 but below SMA200 1917), hourly weakening/support-breakdown, 15min strong downtrend. Confluence bearish. ~25% of 52-wk range.",
    "rsi_daily": 64.64,
    "macd_hist_daily": 16.62,
    "risk_reward_score": 50,
    "relative_strength_vs_spy": "laggard 3-6m, improving 1m (+23% off 1495 low)",
    "relative_strength_vs_em": "improving",
    "range_position_52w_pct": 25,
    "dynamic_macro_weight": 0.15,
    "macro_score": 38,
    "sentiment_score": 50,
    "catalyst_score": 66,
    "support": [
      1738,
      1593,
      1546,
      1528,
      1495
    ],
    "resistance": [
      1876,
      1890,
      1917,
      1945,
      2000
    ],
    "note": "Price +4.5% since prior report (1763\u21921843); short-lived daily strength into a bearish multi-timeframe confluence and the 200-DMA overhead at 1917."
  },
  "driver_score": 71,
  "driver_label": "Tailwind",
  "driver_detail": {
    "primary_driver": "LatAm consumer + digital-commerce/fintech adoption",
    "secondary_driver": "Argentina/Brazil macro + ARS/BRL FX",
    "historical": 78,
    "current": 68,
    "forward": 70,
    "amplification_eligible": "driver Tailwind (65-79); would amplify a base BUY to STRONG BUY but amplification is BLOCKED by the Expensive valuation (46x vs ~32x warranted, above the 24x Discretionary guardrail) AND the base signal is HOLD (HOLD never amplifies) \u2192 signal capped at HOLD across horizons.",
    "thesis_invalidation_floor": "sustained GMV/TPV deceleration below ~20% OR a credit-quality break (NPL/provisions spike) forcing the lending book to shrink"
  },
  "economic_alignment_stance": "Neutral",
  "economic_alignment_conviction": 52,
  "economic_alignment_pressure": "Mixed",
  "economic_alignment_source": "asset-class-map (EM Equities) + sector-map (XLY)",
  "macro_report_date": "2026-07-14",
  "economic_alignment_detail": "EM Equities U/N/O per 2026-07-14 macro state (Short Underperform, Medium Neutral, Long Outperform) \u2014 near-term SOFTENED from N/O/O on 2026-06-26 (EM trimmed near-term, kept as a contrarian long-recovery sleeve). MELI's GICS sector Consumer Discretionary (XLY) U/N/N and macro-penalised (0% portfolio weight). Regime: Stagflation-lite narrow lead (energy-supply-shock). Net stance now Neutral/Mixed: near-term Headwind (EM short U + XLY short U), long-term Tailwind (EM long O). This is a scorecard/narrative delta only \u2014 it CANNOT move the signal because the base is HOLD and Expensive valuation blocks amplification. FLIP from prior Trend-Following/Tailwind (conviction 64) to Neutral/Mixed as EM near-term rolled over.",
  "economic_alignment_stance_prior": "Trend-Following",
  "economic_alignment_pressure_prior": "Tailwind",
  "nonop_pct_of_net_income": -7.7,
  "earnings_quality_note": "Reported net income is if anything DEPRESSED, not inflated \u2014 the below-operating-income line is a net drag (FX/interest/other \u2248 \u2212$0.7bn TTM), and non-operating gains are not padding earnings. No AI-markup / mark-to-market inflation. clean P/E \u2248 reported P/E \u2248 46. The credit book is scored net of provisions (lender caveat), not as clean commerce revenue.",
  "clean_pe": 46.0,
  "clean_peg": 1.08,
  "competitive_share_trajectory": "gaining",
  "competitive_threat_level": "moderate",
  "moat_score": 76,
  "overall_confidence": 63,
  "confidence_note": "Moderate. Signal HOLD across all horizons, unchanged from prior. Valuation is Expensive on the warranted-multiple anchor (clean 46x vs ~32x warranted = 1.44x, and above the 24x Discretionary guardrail), which caps the composite at HOLD and blocks the Driver-71 Tailwind amplification. Quality (84) unchanged \u2014 no new earnings since prior (Q1 2026 still latest; Q2 ~Aug 5). Real deltas this run: price +4.5% (1763\u21921843, more expensive), multi-timeframe confluence now bearish (200-DMA overhead 1917), and Economic Alignment softened (EM Equities N/O/O \u2192 U/N/O; near-term now a Headwind). Framework HOLD (fair value \u2248$1,280 on the anchor) diverges sharply from Street Buy (median $2,150, +17%) \u2014 great business, wrong price.",
  "fair_value_est": 1280,
  "stop_loss": 1480,
  "target_price": 2150,
  "support_1": 1593,
  "support_2": 1546,
  "support_3": 1495,
  "resistance_1": 1876,
  "resistance_2": 1917,
  "resistance_3": 2000,
  "scenarios": {
    "bull": {
      "prob": 28,
      "range": "2400-2600",
      "target": 2500
    },
    "base": {
      "prob": 52,
      "range": "1750-2000",
      "target": 1900
    },
    "bear": {
      "prob": 20,
      "range": "1480-1560",
      "target": 1520
    }
  },
  "scenario_bull_target": 2500,
  "scenario_base_target": 1900,
  "scenario_bear_target": 1520,
  "hard_gate_state": "caution",
  "gates_triggered": [],
  "gates_caution": [
    "Valuation Ceiling: clean 46x is \u22651.4x its ~32x warranted multiple and above the 24x Discretionary guardrail \u2192 caps the signal at HOLD and blocks amplification.",
    "Mercado Cr\u00e9dito +87% to $14.6B; provisions +106% (\u22482/3 of the margin hit); NIMAL 17.8% vs 22.7%; NPL 8.0% stable; ARS/BRL FX. Same Q1 2026 print as prior \u2014 monitor, not triggered."
  ],
  "do_not_buy_triggers": [],
  "entry_criteria_total": 3,
  "entry_criteria_met": 0,
  "entry_groups_met": 0,
  "entry_conviction": "Wait",
  "short_entry_confirmed": false,
  "exit_criteria_total": 3,
  "exit_criteria_met": 0,
  "exit_groups_live": 0,
  "exit_action": "Hold",
  "analyst_consensus_target": 2166.67,
  "analyst_target_high": 2600,
  "analyst_target_low": 1750,
  "analyst_target_upside_pct": 17.5,
  "analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
  "analyst_bullish_pct": 72.7,
  "analyst_coverage_count": 10,
  "recent_upgrades_30d": 0,
  "recent_downgrades_30d": 0,
  "recent_grade_action": "Citigroup maintained Neutral 2026-07-15 (PT ~$1,950); no upgrades in 30d.",
  "fcf_yield": 11.5,
  "implied_growth_rate": null,
  "industry_benchmark_name": "TPV growth + take-rate stability",
  "industry_benchmark_value": "Acquiring TPV +39% (FXN +41%) / take rate stable",
  "industry_benchmark_score": 88,
  "next_catalyst": "FOMC 2026-07-29 (forecast hold 3.75%); then Q2 2026 earnings ~2026-08-05 (after close; web-confirmed, FMP earnings calendar empty)",
  "next_update_date": "2026-07-29",
  "next_check_date": "2026-07-29",
  "next_update_basis": "FOMC 2026-07-29 (13d out, inside the 2-week cap) \u2014 first outlook-changing event; cool June CPI (YoY 3.5% vs 3.8%f, core 2.6%) + PPI \u22120.3% raised the odds the Fed guidance shifts. Q2 earnings ~Aug 5 is beyond the cap.",
  "scenario_base_range": "1750-2000",
  "prior_report": {
    "date": "2026-07-02",
    "price": 1763.36,
    "signal_short": "HOLD",
    "signal_medium": "HOLD",
    "signal_long": "HOLD",
    "quality": 84,
    "valuation": 31,
    "timing": 56,
    "driver": 71,
    "econ_stance": "Trend-Following",
    "econ_pressure": "Tailwind"
  }
}

Signal HOLD across all three horizons — unchanged from the prior (2026-07-02) report. The controlling factor is the Valuation Ceiling: clean ~46x vs ~32x warranted (ratio 1.44) and above the 24x Discretionary guardrail. Quality (84) is unchanged (no new earnings since Q1 2026). The real deltas this update are price (+4.5% to $1,843, i.e. more expensive), a multi-timeframe confluence that has turned bearish (200-DMA overhead at $1,917), and an Economic-Alignment softening (EM Equities N/O/O → U/N/O; stance flips Trend-Following/Tailwind → Neutral/Mixed). None of these can move a valuation-gated HOLD.

Data Sources & Methodology

Audit trail of every data source: fully available (✓), fallback (⚠), or failed (✗), plus provenance-based confidence haircuts.

Data Source Status

✓

get_company_profile / get_financial_ratios Profile, beta 1.35, P/E 48.7 TTM, P/B 12.8, margins, ROE.

✓

get_income_statement (6q) TTM revenue $31.8bn, op margin 9.6%, net margin 6.0%; Q1 2026 latest (filed 2026-05-08). Below-op line a net drag → net income NOT inflated.

✓

get_multi_timeframe_analysis Confluence bearish; daily recovering into 200-DMA $1,917.

✓

get_price_target_consensus / _summary Median $2,150, consensus $2,166.67, high $2,600, low $1,750 (+17.5%); 10 covering last quarter, 0 last month.

✓

get_grades_consensus / get_stock_grades 23 Buy / 9 Hold / 1 Strong Buy, Buy consensus. Latest: Citigroup maintained Neutral 2026-07-15 (PT ~$1,950). No upgrades in 30d.

✓

get_ratings_snapshot FMP rating B (overall 3); P/E and P/B sub-scores 1 (rich), ROE/DCF 5.

✓

get_analyst_estimates 2026E EPS ~$39.3, 2027E ~$56.4 (+44%), 2028E ~$77.9 — fuels the forward-multiple compression case.

✓

get_economic_calendar Cool June CPI (3.5% YoY / core 2.6%) + PPI −0.3%; FOMC 2026-07-29; Core PCE + Q2 GDP 2026-07-30.

✓

Macro state 2026-07-14 / Portfolio state 2026-07-14 EM Equities U/N/O; XLY U/N/N; regime Stagflation-lite; EM trimmed near-term, Discretionary 0% weight.

⚠

get_earnings_calendar FMP returned empty for MELI; Q2 2026 ~Aug 5 confirmed via news (Citi/company cadence).

Impact on scores: High-confidence data across quality, valuation, technicals and macro. The only gap is the empty FMP earnings calendar, backfilled from news — no effect on the signal, which is valuation-gated.

DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

NASDAQ:MELI MercadoLibre, Inc.

MercadoLibre, Inc.

Five-Pillar Scorecard

Business Quality

Valuation Attractiveness

Entry/Exit Timing

Underlying Drivers

Economic Alignment

Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status

Pillar Detail: Business Quality

Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness

Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers

Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment

Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing

Economic Event Risk

Upcoming events (next 30 days)

Recent surprises (last 7 days)

Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis

Price Chart (6-Month Daily)

Scenario Summary

Bull $2,500 (28%)

Base $1,900 (52%)

Bear $1,520 (20%)

Entry / Exit Rules

How to read this — the Conviction Ladder

Fundamental — not MET

Technical — not MET

Catalyst — not MET

Stop-Loss — not LIVE

Thesis Invalidation — not LIVE

Profit-Target — not LIVE

What if you bought now?

What if you sold now?

Position Sizing Context

Calibration Snapshot

Data Sources & Methodology