Re-rated 2026-07-03: Valuation on the new warranted-multiple anchor. 46× clean is ≥1.4× its ~32× warranted / above the 24× Discretionary guardrail → BUY → HOLD across horizons. Quality unchanged.
Broad upgrade. Price +5.3% ($1,674 → $1,763). The decisive change is the macro read: the 2026-06-26 MacroDriver state now rates EM Equities N/O/O (Medium/Long Outperform), flipping Economic Alignment from Contrarian/Headwind to Trend-Following/Tailwind — which, with the unchanged Driver 71, now amplifies the base BUY to STRONG BUY on Medium and Long. Timing also improved: the daily chart reclaimed its SMA50 (RSI 59.7, bullish MACD cross) vs the prior strong-downtrend.
MercadoLibre is Latin America's largest digital-commerce and fintech company, operating the region's leading online marketplace (Mercado Libre) alongside a fast-growing financial-services arm (Mercado Pago). The commerce side connects millions of buyers and sellers across Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile and beyond, supported by its own logistics network (Mercado Envios). The fintech side has evolved from a payments wallet into a broad ecosystem: digital payments and acquiring (TPV ~$56B/qtr), an asset-management product (Mercado Fondo), a rapidly scaling consumer/merchant credit book (Mercado Crédito, ~$14.6B), a credit-card business, insurance and advertising. Its distinctive edge is a deep two-sided network plus owned logistics and a payments-plus-credit flywheel in under-penetrated, cash-heavy LatAm markets, where it enjoys scale, data and brand advantages few rivals can match. Founded in 1999 and headquartered in Montevideo, Uruguay.
Lifecycle & sector. High-Growth stage (revenue +49% YoY, still scaling, reinvesting aggressively). Scored on the EM-Payments + E-Commerce hybrid lens — TPV/GMV growth, take-rate stability, revenue growth, operating-margin trajectory and FCF — with the credit book treated like a bank sub-metric (provisions, NIMAL, NPL).
| Sub-signal | Value | Benchmark | Score | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (Q1'26 YoY) | +49% | EM-pay strong >40% | 92 | Fastest since Q2 2022; investment-led share gains across all geos. |
| Blended GMV growth | ~+42% | >20% strong | 88 | Brazil +38%, Argentina +41%, Mexico +28%, Chile +40%. |
| Acquiring TPV | $56B, +39% (FXN +41%) | >20% strong | 88 | Mexico +46%, Argentina +55%, Chile +69%, Brazil +26%. |
| Operating margin (Q1'26) | 6.9% (-~600bps YoY) | — | 55 | Compression is 2/3 credit provisioning + Mexico/logistics investment, not demand — the main quality caveat. |
| ROE (TTM) | 26.4% | >18% exceptional | 90 | Elite capital efficiency; FMP ROE sub-score 5/5. |
| Net margin (TTM) | 6.0% | — | 58 | Depressed by provisioning + investment; snaps back as cohorts mature (2027E EPS +45%). |
| Balance sheet | Int. cov 17.5x; cash/sh $108 | — | 78 | Ample liquidity; leverage is deposit/credit-book funding, not corporate distress. |
Moat score: 76/100 — wide, and the sub-scores are derived from the competitive read below (Switching Costs trimmed for Nubank).
| Rival | Threat type | Share trajectory | Moat-erosion vector |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nubank | Direct fintech rival (Mercado Pago / Crédito) | MELI holding; Nu gaining in banking | Deposits, credit cards, spreads — the primary switching-cost pressure. |
| Amazon | Commerce (esp. Mexico) | MELI gaining/stable | Selection + Prime logistics in Mexico; MELI's Envios + local scale defend. |
| Shopee / Sea | Low-price commerce entrant (Brazil) | MELI stable; Shopee plateauing | 1P/low-ticket price competition; MELI matched with free-shipping/logistics. |
| Casas Bahia / local retail | Incumbent omnichannel | MELI gaining | Structurally disadvantaged on logistics + fintech; ceding share. |
→ Net effect: Switching Costs trimmed to 72 and Pricing Power to 70 (Nubank pressure); Cost Advantage held at 78 (owned logistics). Overall threat moderate, and it feeds the §11 Bear trigger and §12 thesis-invalidation.
ROIC & capital allocation. High-return reinvestment machine — ROE 26.4%, ROIC comfortably above cost of capital; management is explicitly choosing to invest (Mexico build-out, credit, logistics) over harvesting margin now, a defensible long-term-value posture. Founder-led culture, disciplined M&A history, no dividend/buyback drag. Skin-in-the-game solid.
| Lens | Value | Reference | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing P/E | 46x | FMP P/E sub-score 1/5 | Optically expensive; non-op income negative so this is a CLEAN P/E (no markup inflation). |
| Forward P/E | 45x '26 → 31x '27 → 22x '28 | — | Steep de-rate as the margin trough reverses; 2027E EPS $56.6 (+45%). |
| Historical decile | Decile 3 | own 5-yr range | Cheap vs its own history (it long traded 50-80x); -30% off the 52-wk high. |
| Forward PEG | ~1.0 | <1.2 attractive | Growth roughly free at this multiple. |
| EV / Revenue | ~3.1x | low for a 40%+ grower | Sales multiple undemanding relative to growth. |
| Reverse-DCF implied growth | below consensus | — | After the -30% de-rate with estimates intact, the market prices LESS growth than analysts model. |
Analyst consensus. Consensus target $2,166.67 (median $2,150, high $2,600, low $1,750) → +22% to consensus. Price now sits just above the single lowest target. Grades: 1 Strong Buy / 23 Buy / 9 Hold / 0 Sell → 72.7% bullish, consensus "Buy." Coverage 10 last quarter but 0 in the last month → apply a mild recency haircut. FMP health rating B (3/5): DCF 5, ROE 5, ROA 3 — dragged by P/E 1, P/B 1, D/E 1 (the expensive-absolute-multiple + lender-leverage story).
Net: Expensive → HOLD. A great franchise at the wrong price. On the warranted-multiple anchor the clean 46× is 1.44× its ~32× warranted multiple and above the 24× Discretionary guardrail, so Valuation scores 31 (Expensive), caps the composite at HOLD across all three horizons and blocks the STRONG-BUY amplification the Driver/Econ tailwinds would otherwise grant. The growth is real, but it does not justify 46× — a quality-holds / wait-for-a-better-price name, not a buy here.
Primary driver: the secular digitisation of LatAm commerce, payments and credit in still under-penetrated, cash-heavy markets. Secondary: Argentina/Brazil macro + ARS/BRL FX (a genuine two-way risk that distorts headline USD results).
| Horizon | Read | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Historical (12-24m) | Sustained >30-49% revenue growth; e-commerce + fintech penetration rising; Argentina normalising post-stabilisation. | 78 |
| Current | Fastest revenue growth in ~4 years; TPV/GMV broad-based across geos; offset by margin investment + credit provisioning. | 68 |
| Forward (6-12m) | Penetration runway intact; EM-currency + LatAm-rate normalisation supportive medium/long; FX the swing factor. | 70 |
Driver score 71 → Tailwind, amplification-eligible. It does NOT change the fundamental pillar scores; on its own it would combine with the Tailwind economy to lift a base BUY to STRONG BUY (medium & long) — but that amplification is now BLOCKED: Valuation is Expensive (46× vs ~32× warranted, above the 24× guardrail), which caps the signal at HOLD across all horizons regardless of the driver tailwind. Thesis-invalidation floor: sustained GMV/TPV deceleration below ~20% OR a credit-quality break (NPL breakout) forcing the lending book to shrink.
Per the 2026-06-26 MacroDriver state, MELI (finder-classed Emerging-Market Equities) reads off the EM-Equities asset-class signal: Short Neutral, Medium Outperform, Long Outperform (N/O/O), with EM Currencies also N/O/O. Anchored on Medium → Tailwind, stance Trend-Following. This is the key change vs the prior report, which mapped MELI off Consumer-Discretionary and read Headwind/Contrarian. Cross-current (why conviction is only 64, not higher): the dominant regime is 'Reacceleration lead / Stagflation rising — higher-for-longer Fed,' and MELI's own GICS sector XLY is s:U / m:N / l:N (Neutral, not Outperform). Higher-for-longer rates are not an unambiguous tailwind for a 45x-forward-PE duration name. The EM-equity Tailwind would ordinarily amplify a base BUY to STRONG BUY on Medium and Long, but that amplification is now BLOCKED: Valuation is Expensive (46× vs ~32× warranted, above the 24× Discretionary guardrail), which caps all three horizons at HOLD. The Tailwind remains a genuine positive for the thesis, but amplification cannot override the valuation cap.
Source: asset-class map (EM Equities) · Macro report 2026-06-26
Risk-reward. Price $1,763. Overhead resistance $1,792 / $1,825 → $1,874-1,903, then SMA200 $1,945. Support $1,738 → $1,593 / $1,546 / $1,528 / $1,495 (52-wk low). A logical stop below $1,495 is ~4 ATR away (wide), and the entry is mid-range rather than at support, so risk-reward is favourable to the upside (large room to $2,150) but the entry location is not ideal. RR score ~52.
Relative strength. Still ~30% below the 52-wk high and a laggard vs SPY over 3-6m, but a leader over the last 1m (+18% off the $1,495 low). Mixed → ~48.
Macro overlay (timing). MELI's GICS sector XLY is Underweight short / Neutral medium+long, and the higher-for-longer regime is a valuation headwind → macro sub ~40. (Note the context-pillar EM-Equities read in §6 is more constructive — different lens.)
Sentiment. Grades mostly "maintain" (BTIG Buy 6/2; MS/Barclays/Cantor Overweight held); the Citi/UBS downgrades were April-May (now outside the 30-day window). Net neutral-to-mildly-positive → ~52.
Catalysts. Calm 30-day window — no earnings until ~Aug 5. Catalyst score ~68. Dynamic macro weight 0.15 (medium sensitivity).
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | ISM Services PMI (Jun) | High | 54.0 | 54.5 | Low | LatAm-exposed; minimal direct read on MELI. |
| 2026-07-08 | FOMC Minutes | High | — | — | Medium | Rate-path tone matters for a high-multiple growth name. |
| 2026-07-14 | CPI / Core CPI (Jun) | High | 3.9% / 2.8% YoY | 4.2% / 2.9% | Medium | Higher-for-longer risk to duration/valuation; not a direct LatAm driver. |
| 2026-07-15 | PPI (Jun) | High | +0.8% MoM | +1.1% | Low | Inflation-path input only. |
| 2026-07-16 | Retail Sales (Jun) | High | +0.3% MoM | +0.9% | Medium | US consumer signal — indirect read for a LatAm consumer name. |
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | Non-Farm Payrolls (Jun) | 57k | 110k | -48% below | Cooling labour market → earlier-cut odds; mildly risk-on for growth. |
| 2026-06-30 | CB Consumer Confidence (Jun) | 91.2 | 94.4 | below | Softer US consumer; limited MELI read. |
| 2026-06-25 | Core PCE MoM (May) | 0.3% | 0.3% | in-line | Disinflation stalled → supports higher-for-longer. |
| 2026-06-25 | GDP QoQ (Q1) | 2.1% | 1.6% | above | Reacceleration signal underpinning the macro regime. |
MELI is Medium macro-sensitivity, so no US high-impact release triggers a WAIT-for-event override. The watch items are CPI (Jul 14) and Retail Sales (Jul 16) for the rate-path/valuation read, and FOMC Minutes (Jul 8) for tone. The far bigger macro levers for MELI are LatAm-specific — ARS/BRL FX and Brazilian/Argentine rates — which sit outside the US calendar. The soft June payrolls (57k) nudge cut-odds earlier, a mild positive for duration-sensitive growth.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend | Bullish | 47 | hist -90 (stretched) | S 1063 / R 1825 | Resist. breakout | 0.1x |
| Weekly | Downtrend | Bearish | 48 | hist +16 (turning up) | S 1495 / R 2504 | None | 0.7x |
| Daily | Recovering | Neutral↑ | 60 | +cross (hist +15) | S 1593 / R 1903 | Resist. breakout | 1.0x |
| Hourly | Strong uptrend | Bullish | 62 | + (flat) | S 1657 / R 1782 | Breakout | — |
| 15-min | Strong uptrend | Bullish | 55 | + (flat) | S 1738 / R 1782 | Breakout | — |
| Confluence: Mostly bullish / recovering · MTF Score 60 | |||||||
The structure is a recovery within a larger drawdown: the monthly trend is up and the daily has just reclaimed the SMA50 ($1,686) with a bullish MACD cross and RSI ~60, while intraday timeframes are firmly up. The lone laggard is the weekly (still a downtrend below its SMA50 ~$1,998, though its MACD histogram has turned up). Read: momentum has flipped positive short-term but the name must clear $1,825 → $1,903 and ultimately the SMA200 ($1,945) to confirm a full trend change. Preferred entries: a pullback toward $1,593 support, or a volume-backed break over $1,825.
6-month daily close with SMA50. The Feb and May air-pockets bottomed at ~$1,495; price has since reclaimed the SMA50 and is pressing the $1,792-1,825 resistance shelf. SMA200 (~$1,945) is the trend-change line.
Margin trough confirmed behind it, credit cohorts mature, Mexico inflects to profit, EM-equity flows persist. Re-rates toward the high target as 2027E EPS +45% comes into view. +47% from spot.
Revenue holds 30-40%+, operating leverage begins to snap back in 2H26, macro EM tailwind intact. Converges to the median analyst target. +22% from spot.
Trigger: credit-quality deterioration (NPL breakout) or a sharp Nubank-led take-rate/spread squeeze, and/or an ARS/BRL FX shock — provisions overwhelm the operating-leverage story and growth decelerates. Revisits the $1,495 low; stop below it. -12% to -16%.
Probability-weighted centre ~$2,120 (0.30×2,600 + 0.50×2,150 + 0.20×1,520) — ~+20% from spot, skewed to the upside with a real, credit-driven left tail.
Forecast: With Valuation now Expensive, the Fundamental path is closed until price falls toward its ~$1,225 warranted value (or the multiple compresses / earnings grow into it), so entry conviction is Wait. The Technical group is the only near-term unlock, but a technical trigger alone would still be a HOLD-name entry against an Expensive valuation. Daily is already above the SMA50; the missing pieces are a >1.5x-volume thrust OR a pullback to $1,593. Catalyst group is dormant until Q2 earnings (~Aug 5) — event-dependent, not time-projectable.
Forecast: No exit trigger is live. The nearest risk is the Stop-Loss: at $1,763 the $1,495 stop is ~15% and ~4 ATR away — Unlikely in the next 4-6 weeks absent an FX shock or a credit-quality surprise. Profit-Target trim zone (~$2,150 + overbought) is ~22% up — not near.
You'd be paying 46× — 1.44× the ~32× warranted multiple — for ~22% base / ~47% bull upside against a ~15% stop. No entry path is open (Wait): on the warranted-multiple anchor the price is Expensive, above its ~$1,225 warranted value, and the framework caps the signal at HOLD. The analyst base-case ($2,150, +22%) and bull ($2,600, +47%) upside are real and the daily has reclaimed the SMA50, but you'd be buying a great franchise at a rich multiple with no valuation margin of safety and a wide ~15% stop. Read: not an entry here — wait for a pullback toward warranted value, or for earnings to grow into the multiple, before initiating.
You'd be giving up ~22% base-case upside to protect against a ~12-16% credit/FX left tail. Selling at $1,763 forgoes the move to the $2,150 median target and the optionality on credit-margin recovery. No exit rule is live — the stop ($1,495) isn't hit, RSI isn't overbought, the thesis is intact — so existing holders should Hold. Read: the Expensive valuation blocks fresh buying but is not a distribution signal on its own; hold quality here and add only on a pullback toward warranted value.
The §12 Conviction Ladder reads Wait (0 of 3 entry paths met — the Fundamental path is closed now that Valuation is Expensive). No allocation or portfolio role was supplied, so a specific position % is not computed. Volatility context: beta ~1.35, ATR ~$64 (~3.6% daily expected move), 52-wk range $1,495-$2,548 (a large drawdown name). The ladder-consistent posture is no new starter at this price — hold existing exposure and revisit on a pullback toward warranted value (~$1,225) or the $1,593 support. Specify an allocation/role for sized guidance.
{
"ticker": "MELI",
"exchange_ticker": "NASDAQ:MELI",
"isin": "US58733R1023",
"api_ticker": "MELI",
"finder_ticker": "MELI",
"finder_exchange": "\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 NASDAQ",
"section": "Emerging-Market Equities",
"date": "2026-07-02",
"time": "",
"version": "v6",
"currency": "USD",
"analysis_status": "on-going",
"user_context": {
"horizon": "all_horizons",
"allocation_pct": null,
"portfolio_role": null
},
"price_at_rating": 1763.36,
"signal_short": "HOLD",
"signal_medium": "HOLD",
"signal_long": "HOLD",
"primary_signal": null,
"quality_score": 84,
"lifecycle_stage": "high-growth",
"quality_detail": {
"revenue_growth_yoy_pct": 49.0,
"gmv_growth_yoy_pct": 42,
"acquiring_tpv_growth_yoy_pct": 39,
"op_margin_pct_q1": 6.9,
"op_margin_delta_bps_yoy": -600,
"net_margin_ttm_pct": 6.0,
"roe_pct": 26.4,
"moat_score": 76,
"industry_benchmark_name": "TPV growth + take-rate stability",
"industry_benchmark_score": 88,
"credit_book_usd_bn": 14.6,
"credit_book_growth_yoy_pct": 87,
"provisions_growth_yoy_pct": 106,
"nimal_pct": 17.8,
"nimal_prior_pct": 22.7,
"npl_15_90d_pct": 8.0,
"credit_caveat": "gross credit revenue is lender revenue net of provisions, NOT clean commerce revenue"
},
"valuation_score": 31,
"val_band": "expensive",
"warranted_multiple": 32,
"actual_multiple": 46,
"warranted_ratio": 1.44,
"val_multiple_basis": "clean P/E",
"discount_rate_r": 9.0,
"risk_free_10y": 4.48,
"g_near": 18,
"g_term": 3,
"valuation_detail": {
"pe_ttm": 46.0,
"forward_pe_2026": 45.3,
"forward_pe_2027": 31.2,
"forward_pe_2028": 22.4,
"forward_peg": 1.03,
"ev_revenue_ttm": 3.1,
"price_to_sales_ttm": 2.81,
"price_to_book_ttm": 12.28,
"fcf_yield_pct_reported": 12.0,
"fcf_caveat": "float-inflated by Mercado Pago deposits + credit-book funding; not the anchor",
"historical_valuation_decile": 3,
"analyst_consensus_target": 2166.67,
"analyst_target_median": 2150,
"analyst_target_high": 2600,
"analyst_target_low": 1750,
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 22.9,
"analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
"analyst_bullish_pct": 72.7,
"analyst_coverage_count": 10,
"analyst_coverage_last_month": 0,
"fmp_rating": "B",
"fmp_overall_score": 3,
"embedded_optionality": "Mexico build-out, credit-margin/NIMAL recovery, advertising SOTP, 2H26 operating-leverage snap-back into 2027E EPS +45% \u2014 +4 tilt, not a re-rate"
},
"timing_score": 56,
"timing_detail": {
"mtf_trend_score": 63,
"mtf_note": "monthly uptrend, weekly downtrend, daily recovering (reclaimed SMA50 $1,686, RSI 59.7, MACD +cross), hourly/15min strong uptrend; ~25% of 52-wk range",
"rsi_daily": 59.68,
"macd_hist_daily": 15.13,
"risk_reward_score": 52,
"relative_strength_vs_spy": "laggard 3-6m, leader 1m (+18% off low)",
"relative_strength_vs_em": "improving",
"range_position_52w_pct": 25,
"dynamic_macro_weight": 0.15,
"macro_score": 40,
"sentiment_score": 52,
"catalyst_score": 68,
"support": [
1738,
1593,
1546,
1528,
1495
],
"resistance": [
1792,
1825,
1874,
1903,
1945
]
},
"driver_score": 71,
"driver_label": "Tailwind",
"driver_detail": {
"primary_driver": "LatAm consumer + digital-commerce/fintech adoption",
"secondary_driver": "Argentina/Brazil macro + ARS/BRL FX",
"historical": 78,
"current": 68,
"forward": 70,
"amplification_eligible": "driver Tailwind (65-79) AND economy Tailwind, but amplification BLOCKED by Expensive valuation (46x vs ~32x warranted, above 24x guardrail) \u2192 signal capped at HOLD across horizons",
"thesis_invalidation_floor": "sustained GMV/TPV deceleration below ~20% OR a credit-quality break forcing the lending book to shrink"
},
"economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 64,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Tailwind",
"economic_alignment_source": "asset-class-map (EM Equities)",
"macro_report_date": "2026-06-26",
"economic_alignment_detail": "EM Equities N/O/O (Short Neutral, Medium/Long Outperform) per 2026-06-26 macro state; Medium-anchored Tailwind, Trend-Following. Cross-current: Stagflation-rising/higher-for-longer regime + XLY (MELI GICS) s:U m:N l:N keeps conviction moderate. The Tailwind would amplify a base BUY to STRONG BUY but that is BLOCKED by the Expensive valuation, so signal stays HOLD. FLIP from prior Contrarian/Headwind (sector-map).",
"nonop_pct_of_net_income": -7.7,
"clean_pe": 46.0,
"clean_peg": 1.03,
"competitive_share_trajectory": "gaining",
"competitive_threat_level": "moderate",
"overall_confidence": 63,
"confidence_note": "Moderate. Signal is HOLD across all horizons: Valuation is Expensive on the warranted-multiple anchor (46x vs ~32x warranted, above the 24x Discretionary guardrail), which caps the composite at HOLD and blocks the EM-Equities Tailwind + Driver 71 STRONG-BUY amplification. Quality (84) unchanged. Timing boundary-sensitive; reported FCF float-inflated; EM/FX disclosure risk; macro read mapped from asset class vs softer XLY.",
"fair_value_est": 1225,
"stop_loss": 1480,
"target_price": 2150,
"support_1": 1593,
"support_2": 1546,
"support_3": 1495,
"resistance_1": 1825,
"resistance_2": 1903,
"resistance_3": 1945,
"scenarios": {
"bull": {
"prob": 30,
"range": "2400-2600"
},
"base": {
"prob": 50,
"range": "2000-2150"
},
"bear": {
"prob": 20,
"range": "1480-1560"
}
},
"hard_gate_state": "caution",
"gates_triggered": [],
"gates_caution": [
"Valuation Ceiling: clean 46x is \u22651.4x its ~32x warranted multiple and above the 24x Discretionary guardrail \u2192 caps the signal at HOLD.",
"Mercado Cr\u00e9dito +87% to $14.6B; provisions +106% to $1.24B (2/3 of margin hit); NIMAL 17.8% vs 22.7%; NPL 8.0% stable; ARS/BRL FX. Monitor, not triggered."
],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"entry_criteria_total": 3,
"entry_criteria_met": 0,
"entry_groups_met": 0,
"entry_conviction": "Wait",
"exit_criteria_total": 3,
"exit_criteria_met": 0,
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"analyst_consensus_target": 2166.67,
"analyst_target_high": 2600,
"analyst_target_low": 1750,
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 22.9,
"analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
"analyst_bullish_pct": 72.7,
"analyst_coverage_count": 10,
"fmp_rating": "B",
"fmp_overall_score": 3,
"recent_upgrades_30d": 0,
"recent_downgrades_30d": 0,
"moat_score": 76,
"fcf_yield": 12.0,
"implied_growth_rate": null,
"industry_benchmark_name": "TPV growth + take-rate stability",
"industry_benchmark_value": "Acquiring TPV +39% (FXN +41%) / take rate stable",
"industry_benchmark_score": 88,
"next_catalyst": "Q2 2026 earnings ~2026-08-05 (after close; web-confirmed, FMP earnings calendar empty)",
"next_update_date": "2026-07-16",
"next_check_date": "2026-07-16",
"next_update_basis": "default +14d (no impactful event before Q2 earnings ~Aug 5, 2026)",
"price_at_rating_currency": "USD",
"scenario_base_target": 2150,
"scenario_bull_target": 2600,
"user_horizon": null,
"user_allocation_pct": null,
"portfolio_role": null,
"prior_report": {
"date": "2026-06-16",
"price": 1674.08,
"signal_short": "HOLD",
"signal_medium": "BUY",
"signal_long": "BUY",
"quality": 84,
"valuation": 73,
"timing": 48,
"driver": 71,
"econ_stance": "Contrarian",
"econ_pressure": "Headwind"
}
}