Mastercard sits in the Mature compounder band of its lifecycle — ~15% revenue growth (Q1-26 +15.8% YoY) paired with a 46% net margin and prodigious free cash flow. Although classified under Financial Services / Credit Services, it is not a balance-sheet lender: it is a fee-based, two-sided payment network. So the bank lens (P/TBV, NIM, credit provisions) does not apply; it is scored on network margins, ROIC, cash generation and moat. Data-basis check: FMP "revenue" here is genuine net network revenue (not gross interest income) — the lender-revenue trap is N/A.
| Sub-signal | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue trajectory | ~15-16% YoY, steady (Q1-26 $8.40B, +15.8%); TTM ~$33.9B | 85 |
| Profitability vs peers | Net margin 45.9%, operating 59%, EBITDA 63% — elite across any sector | 95 |
| Cash generation | FCF/OCF 0.97; FCF margin ~52%; ~$17.8B TTM FCF | 95 |
| Balance-sheet health | Interest coverage 27.8x, net debt ~4% of mkt-cap; current ratio 0.98 (lean by design); tangible book negative from buybacks (capital-return artifact, not distress) | 80 |
Moat average 87/100 — among the widest in the market.
The networks are a duopoly attacked at the edges, not the core.
| Rival / threat | Position | Share trajectory vs MA |
|---|---|---|
| Visa (V) | ~2x MA's payment volume; the dominant network | Stable duopoly; MA growing modestly faster — gradual share gain |
| American Express (AXP) | Closed-loop, premium / affluent niche | Holds premium niche; not taking core share |
| PayPal / wallets | Often ride on the rails (funded by cards) | Net-neutral to slightly positive for MA volume |
| Account-to-account / real-time (Pix, UPI, FedNow) | Bank-rail bypass; structural long-term threat | Erosion vector in some geographies; gated by MA's own RTP/Vocalink assets |
| Interchange regulation | EU/US caps, ongoing litigation | Chronic pressure on take rate — the reason Switching Costs is 80 not 95 |
Net: share is stable-to-rising against card peers; the credible long-run erosion is A2A + regulation, which is why Switching Costs (80) and Pricing Power (85) are not maxed.
| Component | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC / returns | FMP ROE & ROA both 5/5; ROIC well above 40% (equity flattered low by buybacks) | 95 |
| Capital allocation | Disciplined buybacks (shares 929M→891M, ~4%/yr) + 18% dividend payout | 85 |
| Skin in the game | Low insider ownership (typical mega-cap); modest SBC, no dilution | 55 |
Quality verdict: 88/100. A wide-moat, cash-gushing compounder; the only blemishes are regulatory pricing pressure and an A2A long tail.
MA is expensive on absolute multiples but attractive relative to its own history and to analyst targets. At $489.79 it trades 28.3x TTM EPS ($17.30), 24.9x 2026E ($19.68) and 21.5x 2027E ($22.81) — near the low end of its multi-year range after a ~19% slide off the $601 high to within 18% of the 52-week low.
| Reference (weight) | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Sector / peer median (25%) | Premium to broad Financials (~15x) but roughly in line with payment-network peer Visa — fair on the correct comp set | 55 |
| Own historical decile (20%) | ~28x TTM / ~25x fwd sits in the bottom ~3rd decile of its 5-yr range — cheap vs itself | 80 |
| Growth-adjusted PEG (15%) | PEG 1.34 (TTM); fwd PEG ~1.6 on ~15% EPS growth — fair, slightly rich | 50 |
| Reverse-DCF implied growth (25%) | Price implies ~9-10%/yr FCF growth; consensus expects ~13-15% EPS growth — market pricing in less than analysts | 72 |
| Analyst target cross-check (10%) | Consensus $660 (median $665, high $739, low $561) — +34.8% upside; every target above price | 88 |
| Grades consensus (5%) | 1 Strong-Buy / 50 Buy / 13 Hold / 0 Sell — 79.7% bullish | 72 |
Valuation verdict: 66/100 — Attractive, just over the line. Honestly stated: it is not cheap on absolute P/E or P/B (FMP scores both 1/5); the Attractive rating rests on the own-history decile, the sub-consensus reverse-DCF, the clean-earnings P/E, and a ~35% gap to consensus targets. FMP overall health B (ROE/ROA 5/5, DCF 4/5, dragged by P/E & P/B).
Primary driver: consumer payment volume + the secular cash→digital shift. MA's revenue is a take on gross dollar volume and cross-border spend, so its fortunes track consumer spending power and the multi-decade migration from cash to electronic payments (still trillions in cash globally).
| Horizon (weight) | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Historical (25%) | Payment volumes compounding high-single/double digits through the cycle; cross-border travel recovered | 75 |
| Current (50%) | Mixed-but-positive: Retail Sales +0.9% (beat), but employment softening (unemp →4.5%E, NFP slowing to 70k) — consumer holding for now | 68 |
| Forward (25%) | Secular cashless tailwind intact; A2A a slow offset; macro consumer decelerating | 72 |
Driver score 70/100 — Tailwind. At ≥65 this makes MA eligible to amplify a base BUY to STRONG BUY where the economy also corroborates. It does not change the base signal or the three fundamental pillars. Cushion is thin: a sharp consumer rollover would pull this under 65 and downgrade Medium to plain BUY.
Macro regime: Soft Landing / Reacceleration co-lead, hawkish Fed (higher-for-longer). Financials (XLF) signals: Short Outperform, Medium Outperform, Long Neutral. So macro pressure is a Tailwind near-term (S/M) and Neutral long-term. Buying a favoured sector aligns with the macro = Trend-Following. NOTE the non-monotonic signal set this produces: amplification requires econ pressure Tailwind AND driver ≥65 — present at Short & Medium, but the L=Neutral reading is exactly why the Long signal is BUY (not amplified) while Medium is STRONG BUY.
Source: MacroDriver-state-20260620 (XLF sector forecast) · Macro report 2026-06-20
Excellent business, poor near-term tape. Price $489.79 is below the 50-day ($498.89) and 200-day ($534.82), within ~18% of the 52-week low, with multi-timeframe confluence strongly bearish — only the monthly (secular) trend is still up.
| Sub-signal | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| MTF trend (30%) | Monthly up, weekly/daily down (daily strong-downtrend), confluence strongly bearish | 37 |
| Risk-reward (20%) | Near support $480/$464; ATR ~$10.6 (2.2%); huge reward to base, but trend against entry | 48 |
| Relative strength (15% macro/sent/cat) | Lagging SPY & XLF over 3m (down ~13% from highs); 52-wk position ~18% | 32 |
| Macro overlay | Fed on hold 3.75%; XLF sector in favour (Outperform short/medium) | 60 |
| Sentiment | All "maintain", 1 upgrade (Freedom Broker), 0 downgrades; estimates rising; news neutral (crypto/BitLicense) | 60 |
| Catalyst density | Next earnings ~late-July (>30d); no cluster — calm | 70 |
Constructive flickers: daily RSI 47.9 (not oversold yet) with MACD histogram turning up (+1.10), and price holding just above the $480 shelf on elevated volume (1.73x). Timing verdict 45/100 — Neutral/weak. This is the lone reason the short-horizon signal is HOLD rather than BUY.
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Core PCE (May) | High | 0.3% MoM | 0.2% | ⚠ Med | Inflation read feeds the Fed path / consumer spend |
| 2026-06-30 | CB Consumer Confidence (Jun) | High | — | 93.1 | ✅ Yes | Direct read on payment-volume driver (consumer) |
| 2026-07-02 | Non-Farm Payrolls (Jun) | High | 70k | 172k | ✅ Yes | Employment = consumer health behind spend |
| 2026-07-14 | CPI (Jun) | High | 3.9% YoY | 4.2% | ⚠ Med | Inflation / Fed; affects discretionary spend |
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | Fed Rate Decision | 3.75% | 3.75% | In-line | Neutral — higher-for-longer held |
| 2026-06-17 | Retail Sales (May) | +0.9% | +0.5% | +80% beat | Positive — consumer spend resilient (driver tailwind) |
No high-impact macro release inside the 3-day WAIT-override window. The relevant cluster for a payments name is the consumer/employment run late-June into early-July (Consumer Confidence, NFP) — supportive if the consumer holds. None reshapes the thesis before the next scheduled refresh.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend ↑ | Bullish | 46.0 | - (hist > sig) | S: $340 R: $602 | Resist. breakout | 0.9x |
| Weekly | Downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 39.6 | - (turning up) | S: $464 R: $570 | Support breakdown | 1.0x |
| Daily | Strong downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 47.9 | - hist +1.10 (up) | S: $480 R: $506 | Support breakdown | 1.7x |
| Hourly | Weakening → | Neutral | 42.0 | - falling | S: $487 R: $505 | Support breakdown | — |
| 15-min | Strong downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 49.9 | - hist +0.17 | S: $489 R: $495 | Support breakdown | — |
| Confluence: Strongly Bearish · MTF Score 37 | |||||||
The secular (monthly) uptrend is intact but every tradable timeframe below it is down: price is under the 50- and 200-day, weekly broke support, daily is in a strong downtrend. The constructive nuance is that daily RSI (47.9) is not yet oversold and the MACD histogram is turning up off a small base, with price defending the $480 shelf on above-average volume. Read: a high-quality name being marked down — accumulate into the $464-$480 support zone or on a reclaim of the 50-day ($499), don't chase strength.
6-month daily close (orange = SMA50). Price has slid from ~$600 to within 18% of the 52-week low ($464.52), now defending the $480 shelf below the 50- and 200-day. Green line = $600 base 12-mo target.
Consumer holds, volumes re-accelerate, multiple re-rates toward ~30x 2027E EPS as the tape turns. Value-added-services optionality is monetised. Tracks back toward analyst high ($739).
~15% EPS growth continues; multiple normalises to ~26x 2027E (~$23). Recovery toward the 200-day / prior range. Sits below the $660 analyst consensus, i.e. a conservative base.
Consumer rolls over (employment softening bites), volumes slow and the multiple compresses to ~22x. Breaks the 52-week low; A2A/interchange headlines weigh.
Probability-weighted 12-month value ≈ $580 (+18%) (0.50×$600 + 0.25×$700 + 0.25×$420). Skew favourable: base+bull upside outweighs a contained bear.
Forecast: Fundamental group is MET now (value path open) → conviction Half-Size. Technical group: ~2-4 weeks IF price reclaims the 50-day ($499, ~2% above) on volume, OR sooner on a tested higher-low off $480/$464 — CONFIDENCE Moderate (daily MACD histogram already turning up, but the trend is down so a failed bounce resets the clock). Catalyst group: event-dependent, earnings ~2026-07-30. A second group firing would lift size to Full-Size.
Forecast: Stop unlikely in the next 4-6 weeks — $460 is ~6% below and below the 52-week low; would need an earnings shock or a broad sell-off. RISK TRIGGER: the late-Jun/early-Jul consumer & jobs data; a sharp NFP/Confidence miss could press price toward $464. Profit-target far off (price 26% below the $660 trigger).
Position sizing not computed — specify your portfolio allocation and role for sizing guidance.
{
"ticker": "MA",
"exchange": "NYSE",
"exchange_ticker": "NYSE:MA",
"api_ticker": "MA",
"isin": "US57636Q1040",
"company": "Mastercard Incorporated",
"date": "2026-06-20",
"version": "v6",
"finder_ticker": "MA",
"finder_exchange": "NYSE",
"analysis_status": "on-going",
"sector": "Financial Services / Credit Services (payments network)",
"lifecycle_stage": "mature",
"user_context": {
"horizon": null,
"allocation_pct": null,
"portfolio_role": null
},
"price_at_rating": 489.79,
"signal_short": "HOLD",
"signal_medium": "STRONG BUY",
"signal_long": "BUY",
"primary_signal": "STRONG BUY (medium)",
"quality_score": 88,
"valuation_score": 66,
"timing_score": 45,
"driver_score": 70,
"driver_label": "Tailwind",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 70,
"economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
"economic_pressure": "Tailwind",
"quality_detail": {
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"industry_benchmark_score": 85,
"moat_score": 87,
"roic_percentile_vs_peers": 95,
"capital_allocation": 85,
"management_skin_in_game": 55
},
"valuation_detail": {
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"implied_growth_rate": 9.5,
"consensus_growth_rate": 14.0,
"historical_valuation_decile": 3,
"pe_ttm": 28.3,
"fwd_pe_2026": 24.9,
"peg": 1.34
},
"timing_detail": {
"mtf_confluence": 37,
"risk_reward_score": 48,
"relative_strength_52wk_pos": 18,
"catalyst_clustering_score": 70,
"dynamic_macro_weight": 0.15
},
"overall_confidence": 70,
"fair_value_est": 600,
"stop_loss": 460,
"target_price": 660,
"scenario_base_target": 600,
"scenario_bull_target": 700,
"scenario_bear_target": 420,
"hard_gate_state": "clear",
"gates_triggered": [],
"gates_caution": [],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"entry_groups_met": 1,
"entry_conviction": "Half-Size",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"analyst_target_consensus": 660.43,
"analyst_target_median": 665,
"analyst_target_high": 739,
"analyst_target_low": 561,
"grades_bullish_pct": 79.7,
"next_update_date": "2026-07-06",
"next_update_basis": "default +14d (no impactful event in window; earnings ~2026-07-30 beyond window; Jul 4 rolled to Jul 6)",
"next_check_date": "2026-07-06"
}