Little has changed on the fundamentals, and the three signals are unchanged — HOLD / BUY / STRONG BUY. Price is +2.7% to $14.20 (with a sharp +8.4% bounce today off a $13.10 close), but the higher-timeframe tape is still down. One thing is genuinely new this cycle: the Q2 print now sits inside the two-week window (results 13 Aug). The NASA CLPS lunar-delivery award is a standing positive, not a new catalyst — it was announced 30 June 2026 and was already in place at the 20 Jul report.
Intuitive Machines is a Houston-based space company that builds and flies robotic Moon landers and provides the services that go with them — lunar delivery (its Nova-C class landers), lunar data relay and communications, orbital services, and space infrastructure. It is the only private company to have soft-landed on the Moon, and has done so more than once, which gives it flight heritage that rivals are still chasing. Its revenue is dominated by U.S. government work — principally NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) and Artemis programmes, plus a growing national-security space business — layered on a record ~$1.1B contract backlog. Think of it as an early-commercial 'Moon logistics and communications' contractor: still pre-profit and cash-burning as it scales, but with multi-year, mostly firm-fixed-price government demand behind it. What sets it apart is the combination of proven landing capability, deep NASA integration (including the NSNS near-space network and control of the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter camera), and the cheapest forward revenue multiple among the listed space pure-plays.
Lifecycle & sector: High-growth, early-commercial space services (GICS Industrials → Aerospace & Defense). Scored on the pre/early-profit lens the SKILL mandates for a name like this — contract backlog, revenue ramp, path-to-profit and cash runway, not trailing P/E (meaningless at −$0.92 TTM EPS). Reported GAAP net income is distorted quarter-to-quarter by warrant/earn-out mark-to-market swings, so quality is read off operating results.
| Sub-signal | Reading | Score | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue trajectory | Q1'26 $186.7M (record, ~3× YoY vs $62.5M); TTM $334M; FY26 guide ~$1.0B (consensus $935M, +345%) | 80 | Explosive but milestone-lumpy — a big Q1 deliverable inflates the run-rate; Q2 consensus $216M. |
| Profitability (operating) | Gross margin TTM 25.7%, Q1'26 record 39%; op margin −35% TTM (improving); adj-EBITDA +$2.7M in Q1 | 50 | Margins inflecting the right way; still operating-loss-making at scale. |
| Cash generation | FCF negative (op cash burn ~$54.8M in Q1); FCF-positive targeted 2028 | 35 | The real vulnerability — the gap between positive adj-EBITDA and actual FCF while funding a $1.1B backlog. |
| Balance sheet | Cash $231.6M (Q1) + $345M 2.50% converts due 2030; current ratio 1.22; runway >3 yr | 55 | Adequately funded post the H1-2026 raise; converts are long-dated and cheap. |
| Backlog | $1.1B record (~tripled YoY) | 70 | Multi-year, mostly firm-fixed-price government demand = revenue visibility. |
| Rival | Threat type | Share trajectory | Moat-erosion vector |
|---|---|---|---|
| Astrobotic (Voyager · VOYG) | Direct lunar-lander rival | Gaining | Won the larger $297.9M Jun-2026 award; Griffin + LunaGrid. |
| Firefly Aerospace (FLY) | Direct lunar-lander rival | Stable/gaining | Upright 2025 landing; parallel CLPS awards; profitability later (2029) though. |
| SpaceX (SPCX) | Launch partner + long-run substitute | Stable | Starship lunar cargo could bypass small landers over time. |
| Rocket Lab (RKLB) / Blue Origin | Adjacent / full-stack | Stable | Broader space-systems reach; Blue Moon lander. |
→ Net effect on the moat: Switching Costs trimmed to 58, Cost Advantage to 50; overall competitive-threat level elevated, share stable (not yet losing, but no longer the clear leader for the Moon-base build-out).
ROIC is negative (pre-profit) — bottom-quartile vs profitable aerospace peers, expected for the lifecycle stage. Capital allocation is growth-mode: M&A (space-services tuck-ins) plus the recent financing (the $175M H1-2026 equity, priced at a difficult level, atop the Aug-2025 converts) that shored up the balance sheet. Management skin-in-the-game is moderate; a CTO sold $3.3M in June under a pre-planned 10b5-1 (routine, not a signal). Capital-allocation sub-score ~48 — the raise was defensive and dilutive, offset by disciplined debt-weighting.
The right lens for a pre-profit space name is forward EV/Revenue and backlog — trailing P/E, PEG and FCF yield are all N/A (negative earnings and cash flow). The warranted-multiple anchor the framework normally computes is N/A here — there is no clean earnings multiple to anchor to — so we fall back to relative revenue multiples + the analyst cross-check and apply a confidence haircut.
| Multiple | Value | Read |
|---|---|---|
| EV/Revenue — TTM | ~7.4× | Rich on trailing, but TTM lags the ramp. |
| EV/Revenue — fwd FY26 (~$935M) | ~2.6× | Attractive. Cheapest of the listed space pure-plays. |
| EV/Revenue — fwd FY28 (~$1.41B) | ~1.8× | Well under 2× on out-year sales. |
| Peer context | SPCX ~114× · ASTS ~188× P/S | LUNR ~4–7× P/S is a fraction of the pack. |
| FCF yield | N/A (negative) | Pre-FCF; positive FCF targeted 2028. |
| Analyst cross-check | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus target | $42 (median $37.5) | Price $14.20 ≈ 66% below consensus — large implied upside. |
| High / Low | $75 / $27 | Even the low target is ~90% above spot. |
| Grades (11 firms) | 9 Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell | 82% bullish; consensus Buy. |
| Recency | 0 new targets last month | Stale — targets predate the July slide; recency-discounted, so the 66% gap is not taken at face value. |
| FMP health rating | C (2/5) | Dragged by DCF/ROA/D-E/P-E/P-B (all pre-profit artifacts). Divergence noted: our Attractive read is on forward revenue + backlog, not trailing earnings — FMP's C reflects the earnings the framework already treats as N/A. |
Valuation verdict: Attractive (72) on forward revenue and backlog vs peers, tempered by the anchor-N/A haircut, stale targets, and genuine pre-profit uncertainty. It is cheap for the growth — not cheap on any current-earnings measure.
Primary driver: the U.S. government space budget — NASA's CLPS/Artemis cadence plus a rising national-security (Space Force) space spend. LUNR's revenue is overwhelmingly government, so appropriations and programme direction dominate its economics far more than its own execution.
| Horizon | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Historical (25%) | CLPS/Artemis funding grew through the decade; LUNR won IM-1/2/3, the NSNS network and LRO camera control. | 72 |
| Current (50%) | 30 June 2026: NASA awarded $600M of lunar contracts; LUNR +$148.3M firm-fixed-price (non-dilutive floor). Artemis intact — but LUNR won a smaller slice than Astrobotic, and federal-appropriations risk is ever-present. | 68 |
| Forward (25%) | Multi-year Artemis / Moon-base build-out pipeline and rising Space Force space budgets; a government-shutdown / appropriations wobble is the main caveat. | 66 |
Driver score 68 → Tailwind (amplification-eligible, ≥65). It does not change the base signal — it feeds the amplification layer. With a Tailwind economy it is eligible to lift a base BUY to STRONG BUY. Applied at Long (structural, multi-year); held at Medium, where the near-term binary IM-3 landing and the 13-Aug print keep conviction short of STRONG. Thesis-invalidation floor: a sustained cut to CLPS/Artemis appropriations, or LUNR being shut out of the next major CLPS/NSNS award, would flip the driver to a headwind and break the case.
LUNR is not on the macro report's stock watchlist, so economic pressure is read from its GICS sector. Industrials (XLI) carries a strengthening macro signal — Outperform short and medium, Strong Outperform long — and the Defense asset class is Strong Outperform across all three horizons, both of which LUNR sits inside (government / national-security space). The macro regime is 'Stagflation-lite,' which favours government-spending and defense beneficiaries. Pressure = Tailwind, so the amplification layer is enabled: combined with the 68 driver it lifts the base Long BUY to STRONG BUY; at Medium the near-term binary (IM-3 + the 13-Aug print) holds conviction short of amplification. Note: LUNR is not in the armed 'S&P 500 concentration / AI earnings-quality unwind' cohort — it is neither an AI-capex/monetisation name nor a top index constituent — so it does not inherit that macro tail.
Source: sector-map (XLI Industrials + Defense) · Macro report 2026-07-30
The tape is the weak leg. Monthly, weekly and daily trends are all down; the stock is ~70% off its May high of $46.75 and sits near the bottom of its 52-week range (~16% range position). Today's +8.4% bounce to $14.20 shows on the hourly/15-min charts (hourly RSI 71, overbought) but has not turned the higher timeframes — confluence is bearish.
| Sub-signal | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| MTF trend (30%) | Monthly/weekly/daily downtrend; hourly/15-min bounce. Confluence bearish. | 37 |
| Risk-reward (20%) | Near 52w lows, daily RSI 36 (oversold), ATR ~10.5%/day; logical stop below $11.29 → favourable R:R to base $27 but into a downtrend. | 46 |
| Relative strength | Lagged the sector's post-SpaceX-IPO bounce ("quietest mover"); down ~70% from highs. | 22 |
| Macro overlay (15%) | Industrials = medium macro-sensitivity; Fed on hold 3.75%, soft Core PCE (0.1%) supports growth multiples. | 55 |
| Sentiment | Analyst grades all "maintain" (neutral); news tone positive (space rotation, CLPS award, "least risky of the three"). | 52 |
| Catalysts | Q2 earnings 13 Aug (9 days, high-impact); IM-3 mission H2-2026; NSNS task orders. Clustering ~50. | 48 |
Timing 44 — Weak/Neutral. A great-story name caught in a bad tape ahead of a binary print. The oversold reading and today's bounce are encouraging but unconfirmed; the disciplined read is to wait for a post-earnings reclaim or a higher-low bounce into $11–12 support before adding.
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | ISM Services PMI (Jul) | High | 54.5 | 54.0 | ⚠ Low | Growth-multiple backdrop for pre-profit names |
| 2026-08-07 | Non-Farm Payrolls (Jul) | High | 80K | 57K | ⚠ Low | Labour → rate path → growth-stock multiples |
| 2026-08-12 | CPI YoY (Jul) | High | 3.4% | 3.5% | ⚠ Low | Inflation → Fed path → duration-sensitive growth |
| 2026-08-13 | PPI MoM (Jul) & LUNR Q2 earnings | High | −0.1% | −0.3% | ✅ Yes | Company binary — Q2 results before open |
| 2026-08-14 | Retail Sales (Jul) | High | 0.5% | 0.2% | · No | Not directly relevant (government revenue) |
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Fed Rate Decision | 3.75% | 3.75% | Inline | Hold — neutral for growth multiples |
| 2026-07-30 | Core PCE MoM (Jun) | 0.1% | 0.2% | −50% (below) | Dovish-supportive for long-duration growth |
| 2026-07-30 | GDP QoQ (Q2) | 1.5% | 2.1% | −29% (below) | Cooling growth — 'stagflation-lite' |
| 2026-08-03 | ISM Manufacturing (Jul) | 55.6 | 54.0 | +3% (above) | Mild positive for Industrials |
LUNR is a government-contract name with low direct macro sensitivity — its revenue tracks NASA/Space Force appropriations, not the CPI. The only high-relevance date is its own Q2 print on 13 Aug. Macro matters at one remove: a soft Core PCE and a Fed on hold are mildly supportive for long-duration, pre-profit growth multiples, while the cooling GDP print keeps the backdrop 'stagflation-lite.'
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 45 | −, flat | S: 7.78 · R: 13.25/24.95 | Resist. breakout | 0.1x |
| Weekly | Downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 41 | −2.28 hist | S: 14.54 · R: 14.48/23.32 | — | 0.3x |
| Daily | Downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 36 | +0.34 hist (turning) | S: 11.29/12.70 · R: 14.89/22.5 | Support breakdown | 1.0x |
| Hourly | Uptrend ↑ | Bullish | 71 (OB) | + | S: 13.49 · R: 14.49 | Resist. breakout | 1.5x |
| 15-min | Strong Up ↑ | Bullish | 55 | +/flat | S: 13.39 · R: 14.49 | Resist. breakout | 0.2x |
| Confluence: Bearish · MTF Score 37 | |||||||
Higher timeframes (monthly/weekly/daily) are firmly bearish — price is below every major moving average (daily SMA50 $22.66, SMA200 $19.14) and just broke a daily support. The hourly/15-min uptrend is today's +8.4% relief bounce, and the hourly is already overbought (RSI 71). This is a textbook lower-timeframe rally inside a higher-timeframe downtrend — treat it as a bounce to prove, not a trend change. Watch for a daily reclaim of $14.89 then the $22.66 50-DMA on volume, or a tested higher-low off $11.29–12.70, before calling the tape turned.
6-month daily close (Feb–Aug 2026). LUNR ran from ~$16 to a $46.75 May high, then de-rated ~70% to ~$13 on the SpaceX-IPO capital drain and a $500M+ H1 financing; today's +8% bounce is off the $11–13 base. SMA50 (orange) is falling; support $11.29, 50-DMA $22.66, base target $27.
IM-3 lands successfully, FY26 ~$1.0B guide is hit and the path-to-profit 2027 / FCF-2028 is confirmed, and the space-sector re-rating continues (SpaceX 'gravitational pull'). NSNS task orders ramp. Re-rate toward the analyst pack (~4–5× fwd sales). Trigger: mission success + a guidance raise.
Executes to ~$935M FY26, backlog converts, adj-EBITDA stays positive, but multiple competition (Astrobotic/Firefly winning parallel awards) caps the multiple at ~3.5–4× fwd sales. ~90% above spot — matches the lowest analyst target. The probability-weighted centre of gravity.
An IM-3 mission failure, a guidance cut, a working-capital/FCF squeeze forcing fresh dilution, OR a space-sector de-rating — and, competitively, LUNR losing the next major CLPS/NSNS award to Astrobotic/Firefly. Back toward the 52-week-low zone ($7.78). This is the elevated competitive threat showing up in the downside.
Probability-weighted fair value ≈ 0.25×$44 + 0.55×$27 + 0.20×$9 = ~$27.6 — roughly the base case, ~94% above the current $14.20, and the reason the Long signal is STRONG BUY despite the weak near-term tape.
Forecast: Fundamental is already met (cheap, driver tailwind). Technical is Low-confidence in the next 2–3 weeks without a catalyst — the daily is below a falling 50-DMA and would need a reclaim of $14.89 on volume, or a confirmed higher-low off $11.29–12.70. Catalyst is event-dependent — it resolves on the 13 Aug Q2 print (a >+5% pop on maintained/raised guidance and 2× volume would flip it MET and confirm the Short). So the most likely path from Half-Size to Full-Size is an earnings-driven confirmation around 13–14 Aug.
Forecast: Stop is Unlikely in 4–6 weeks — price sits ~26% above $10.50. The nearest risk trigger is the 13 Aug print / the IM-3 mission: a guidance cut or a mission failure would flip Thesis Invalidation live. Profit-target is far off ($37.5).
Position sizing not computed — no portfolio allocation or role was specified. What the framework can say about how much risk this name carries:
Illustrative only — not advice. Set your own size from your risk tolerance and existing exposure.
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"date": "2026-08-04",
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"short_entry_confirmed": false,
"short_cap_reason": "Short base signal is BUY on the Fundamental (cheap) path only; Technical AND Catalyst groups both unmet + earnings 13 Aug \u2014 capped to HOLD ('buy on confirmation').",
"quality_score": 60,
"lifecycle_stage": "high-growth (early-commercial, space)",
"quality_detail": {
"industry_benchmark_name": "ROIC-vs-WACC + Backlog Growth (Industrials)",
"industry_benchmark_value": "ROIC negative (pre-profit); backlog $1.1B (~tripled YoY)",
"industry_benchmark_score": 58,
"moat_score": 53,
"roic_percentile_vs_peers": 25,
"capital_allocation": 48,
"management_skin_in_game": 52
},
"valuation_score": 72,
"valuation_detail": {
"fcf_yield": "N/A (negative)",
"ev_rev_ttm": 7.4,
"ev_rev_fwd_2026": 2.6,
"ev_rev_fwd_2028": 1.8,
"price_vs_consensus_pct": -66,
"historical_valuation_decile": "n/a (pre-profit space pure-play)"
},
"warranted_multiple": "na",
"actual_multiple": 2.6,
"val_multiple_basis": "EV/Revenue fwd FY26 (warranted-P/E anchor N/A \u2014 pre-profit)",
"discount_rate_r": null,
"risk_free_10y": 4.4,
"g_near": null,
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"warranted_ratio": "na",
"val_band": "attractive",
"timing_score": 44,
"timing_detail": {
"mtf_confluence": "bearish",
"mtf_trend_score": 37,
"risk_reward_score": 46,
"relative_strength_vs_spy": "lagging",
"relative_strength_vs_sector": "lagging (~70% off May high; 'quietest mover' in space bounce)",
"catalyst_clustering_score": 50,
"dynamic_macro_weight": 0.15,
"atr_pct_of_price": 10.5,
"range_position_52w_pct": 16
},
"driver_score": 68,
"driver_name": "US gov space budget / NASA CLPS \u00b7 Artemis \u00b7 NSNS (+ Space Force space)",
"driver_commodity_trend": "n/a (not commodity-leveraged)",
"economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 76,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Tailwind",
"economic_alignment_source": "sector-map (XLI Industrials + Defense)",
"macro_report_date": "2026-07-30",
"competitive_share_trajectory": "stable",
"competitive_threat_level": "elevated",
"nonop_pct_of_net_income": "variable \u2014 warrant/earn-out MTM distorts GAAP net income (read operating)",
"clean_pe": "N/A (pre-profit)",
"clean_peg": "N/A (pre-profit)",
"analyst_consensus_target": 42,
"analyst_target_high": 75,
"analyst_target_low": 27,
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 196,
"analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
"analyst_bullish_pct": 82,
"analyst_coverage_count": 11,
"fmp_rating": "C",
"fmp_overall_score": 2,
"recent_upgrades_30d": 0,
"recent_downgrades_30d": 0,
"overall_confidence": 40,
"fair_value_est": 27,
"stop_loss": 10.5,
"target_price": 27,
"scenario_base_target": 27,
"scenario_bull_target": 44,
"scenario_bear_target": 9,
"entry_groups_met": 1,
"entry_conviction": "Half-Size",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"hard_gate_state": "caution",
"gates_triggered": [],
"gates_caution": [
"Earnings-event gate: Q2 13 Aug 2026 (within 14d) \u2014 timing confidence capped",
"Dilution (Gate-4 mechanical: shares 61M\u2192~159M in ~15mo) \u2014 treated as caution (growth capital; H1-26 debt-weighted)",
"Binary IM-3 mission (H2-2026)",
"Pre-profit cash burn (op burn ~$55M/qtr; runway >3yr; FCF-positive targeted 2028)"
],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"next_update_date": "2026-08-14",
"next_update_basis": "Q2 earnings 2026-08-13 +1 trading day",
"next_check_date": "2026-08-14"
}
Signals unchanged vs 20 Jul (HOLD/BUY/STRONG BUY). The only material move is the earnings-event gate going live (Q2 13 Aug), which cut overall confidence 55→40. Donatien Pick retained on the live Long BUY.