NASDAQ:LUNR Intuitive Machines, Inc.

Lifecycle — high-growth, early-revenue (Stage 2). Intuitive Machines is scaling contract revenue fast but is not yet profitable, so it is scored on growth, backlog quality, moat and runway rather than P/E or ROE. Q1-2026 revenue was a record $186.7M (vs ~$50M/qtr through 2025), lifting TTM revenue to ~$334M; the jump is largely the Lanteris acquisition plus a fifth CLPS task order, so revenue is lumpy and partly bought, not purely organic. Consensus models ~$943M for FY26 rising to ~$1.39B by FY28 (~88% projected CAGR), with the first positive net-income year expected ~2027-28.

Competitive Moat

Moat average ≈ 54. Real but narrow, and dynamic — the switching-cost and cost-advantage scores are trimmed directly by the competitive read below.

FMP health cross-check: rating C (2/5) — dragged by DCF/ROA/D-E/P-E/P-B sub-scores of 1 (all a function of being pre-profit), with ROE the lone bright spot (distorted by negative equity). Consistent with our 'developing' quality read: a promising franchise that has not yet earned its cost of capital.

Implied-growth read (narrative colour). At ~3.5x forward revenue for a business consensus expects to compound ~50-88% for several years, the market is not pricing in the full ramp — the multiple embeds meaningfully less growth than the contracted backlog and NSN franchise imply. The catch: 'cheap' here is conditional on the revenue actually converting and the losses actually narrowing; a pre-profit name that stumbles can see the forward multiple stay high because the denominator disappoints. That conditionality — not a rich price — is why Valuation sits at 67 (attractive) rather than 80+.

Timing is the weak leg. LUNR went parabolic into late May (peaked $46.75 on 27 May on the SpaceX-IPO halo), then round-tripped almost the entire move as the SpaceX IPO 'sucked the oxygen out of the room' and a ~$500M raise landed. Price $19.58 now sits below the 20/50-day averages but is holding just above the 200-DMA (~$18.78) and recent swing support (~$17.9).

Confluence: bearish (MTF trend ~49). This is the classic 'higher-TF up + lower-TF pullback' map — potentially a buy setup — but the daily support breakdown and strong intraday downtrends say the knife is still falling. RSI 36 is near-but-not-oversold; there is no positive-divergence reversal signal yet.

Upcoming events (next 30 days)

Recent surprises (last 7 days)

No high-impact, company-specific event falls inside the next 14 days. The recurring macro prints (CPI 15 Jul, FOMC 29 Jul) are medium-relevance only (Industrials is medium macro-sensitivity) and are NOT used as scheduling triggers. The two dated catalysts that matter — Q2 earnings (6 Aug) and the IM-3 landing (H2) — both sit beyond the window, so this report refreshes on the default +14-day cadence.

Monthly and weekly structure remain constructive, but the daily and both intraday timeframes have turned bearish with a daily support breakdown — a short-term pullback (arguably capitulation from a parabola) inside a still-intact larger uptrend. The level that matters is the 200-DMA / swing support at ~$17.9-18.8: hold it and the higher-TF uptrend stays alive; lose it on volume and the bear path toward the $11 zone opens.

Weekly closes, Jan-Jul 2026 (orange) vs ~50-day trend (grey). The May parabola to $46.75 and the ~58% June unwind to $19.58 are the whole story; price now tests 200-DMA/swing support ~$17.9-18.8. Levels: green = support/stop, red = overhead resistance / analyst median target.

Probability-weighted fair value ≈ 0.50×$30 + 0.25×$46 + 0.25×$11 = ~$29.3, ~+50% above the $19.58 price — a positively-skewed distribution, but with a fat 25% bear tail that is event-driven (one landing) rather than gradual. That asymmetry is why this reads HOLD short/medium (watch for entry) with a Long-horizon STRONG BUY — a Half-Size, accumulate-on-a-confirmed-bounce stance, not back-up-the-truck.

Forecast: Fundamental group is already MET → a value-based starter (Half-Size) is available now. The Technical group is the one to watch: a confirmed higher-low bounce off the $17.9-18.8 support zone is the nearer path (days-to-weeks, catalyst/tape-dependent) — a clean 50-DMA reclaim (~$28.8, ~47% away) is unlikely inside 4-6 weeks without a positive catalyst. The Catalyst group is dated: Q2 earnings (~6 Aug) then IM-3 (H2). Adding a second group (Technical or Catalyst) would upgrade the size to Full-Size; today it is one path open.

Forecast: Stop-Loss unlikely in the next 4-6 weeks absent a new negative catalyst — price is ~16% above the $16.5 stop and holding the 200-DMA — but the ~15%/day ATR means a single bad session can approach it, so the stop is live risk, not remote. The most probable exit trigger over the coming quarters is Thesis Invalidation via the IM-3 landing (H2 2026): a third tip-over would be treated as a confirmed thesis dent and exit, not hold-and-hope. Profit-Target ($37.5 + RSI>70) is a multi-month bull-case event.

Position sizing not computed — specify your portfolio allocation and role for sizing guidance.

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  "ticker": "LUNR",
  "date": "2026-07-03",
  "version": "v6",
  "analysis_status": "donatien-pick",
  "exchange": "NASDAQ",
  "exchange_ticker": "NASDAQ:LUNR",
  "isin": "US46125A1007",
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  "user_context": {
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  "price_at_rating": 19.58,
  "signal_short": "HOLD",
  "signal_medium": "HOLD",
  "signal_long": "STRONG_BUY",
  "primary_signal": "HOLD",
  "quality_score": 57,
  "lifecycle_stage": "high-growth (early-revenue)",
  "quality_detail": {
    "industry_benchmark_name": "ROIC vs WACC + Backlog Growth (Industrials)",
    "industry_benchmark_value": "neg ROIC / backlog +$842M (~tripled YoY)",
    "industry_benchmark_score": 55,
    "moat_score": 54,
    "roic_percentile_vs_peers": 30,
    "capital_allocation": 52,
    "management_skin_in_game": 55
  },
  "valuation_score": 67,
  "valuation_detail": {
    "fcf_yield": "N/A (negative)",
    "ev_rev_ttm": 9.9,
    "ev_rev_fwd_2026": 3.5,
    "ev_rev_fwd_2028": 2.4,
    "price_vs_consensus_pct": -53,
    "historical_valuation_decile": "n/a (<2yr as space pure-play)"
  },
  "warranted_multiple": "na",
  "actual_multiple": 3.5,
  "val_multiple_basis": "EV/Revenue fwd FY26 (warranted-P/E anchor N/A \u2014 pre-profit)",
  "discount_rate_r": null,
  "risk_free_10y": 4.48,
  "g_near": null,
  "g_term": null,
  "warranted_ratio": "na",
  "val_band": "attractive",
  "timing_score": 45,
  "timing_detail": {
    "mtf_confluence": "bearish",
    "mtf_trend_score": 49,
    "risk_reward_score": 47,
    "relative_strength_vs_sector": "lagging (worst mover in post-IPO bounce)",
    "catalyst_clustering_score": 55,
    "dynamic_macro_weight": 0.15,
    "atr_pct_of_price": 14.6,
    "range_position_52w_pct": 30
  },
  "driver_score": 68,
  "driver_name": "US gov space budget / NASA CLPS / Artemis cadence",
  "economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
  "economic_alignment_conviction": 72,
  "economic_alignment_pressure": "Tailwind",
  "economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
  "macro_report_date": "2026-07-03",
  "competitive_share_trajectory": "stable",
  "competitive_threat_level": "elevated",
  "nonop_pct_of_net_income": "variable \u2014 warrant/earnout MTM swings distort GAAP net income (read operating)",
  "clean_pe": "N/A (pre-profit)",
  "clean_peg": "N/A (pre-profit)",
  "overall_confidence": 55,
  "fair_value_est": 30,
  "stop_loss": 16.5,
  "target_price": 30,
  "scenario_base_target": 30,
  "scenario_bull_target": 46,
  "scenario_bear_target": 11,
  "entry_groups_met": 1,
  "entry_conviction": "Half-Size",
  "exit_groups_live": 0,
  "exit_action": "Hold",
  "hard_gate_state": "caution",
  "gates_triggered": [],
  "gates_caution": [
    "Financial/interest-coverage (pre-profit cash burn)",
    "Dilution (share count >2x in ~15mo)",
    "Binary mission (IM-3 H2-2026)"
  ],
  "do_not_buy_triggers": [],
  "next_update_date": "2026-07-17",
  "next_update_basis": "default +14d (Q2 earnings 2026-08-06 and IM-3 H2-2026 both beyond the 14d window)",
  "next_check_date": "2026-07-17"
}