TSX:K Kinross Gold Corporation

Base matrix (per horizon): Quality 78 (High) + Valuation 76 (Attractive) + Timing 58 (Improving) → BUY (high conviction). Amplification: Driver 85 (Tailwind) + Economic pressure Tailwind → STRONG BUY for Medium and Long. Short-term carries a SKILL §8 WAIT-FOR-EVENT override (high-impact FOMC within 3 trading days, high macro-sensitivity sector). No hard gates or Do-Not-Buy triggers fired. Overall confidence 62% (= weakest pillar, Timing).

Do-Not-Buy triggers: none fired. Hard-gate state: CLEAR (two caution flags noted for sizing/timing).

Lifecycle & Sector

Sector: Mining / Materials (Gold). Lifecycle: Mature / Cash-Cow producer (~2M oz/yr, structurally low single-digit production growth; current revenue surge is gold-price-driven, not volume-driven). Metric profile: P/NAV, FCF yield, AISC margin, balance sheet — net income and P/E are de-emphasised as cyclical.

Competitive Moat (avg 52)

ROIC & Capital Allocation (74)

FMP financial-health rating cross-check: A (4/5) — DCF 5, ROE 5, ROA 5 (confirming quality); D/E 3; P/E 3, P/B 2 (the valuation sub-scores drag, reflecting the share-price run vs book).

Reverse DCF / Implied Gold

At ~8× forward P/E and 6.2× EV/EBITDA, the market is effectively pricing gold to mean-revert — implied forward earnings sit below consensus (2026E EPS ~US$3.05, 2027E ~US$3.32 vs ~US$2.39 TTM). In plain terms: the market is paying for flat-to-lower gold, while Kinross is currently earning at ~US$4,350 spot. Implied growth < consensus → Attractive (the pessimism is in the price). The flip side: this is the bull case—if gold reverts hard, the cheap forward multiple re-expands.

Analyst Consensus Cross-Check

Recency caveat: the +58% headline gap is real but likely lags the gold pullback from ~US$5,000 (Jan–Feb) to ~US$4,350 now — the FMP summary shows zero new targets in the past month. Treat the upside as directional support, not fresh conviction. Analyst grades (FMP): 0 strong-buy / 17 buy / 9 hold / 3 sell → Buy consensus, 59% bullish (some hesitation in the holds). Score on the analyst sub-signal: target signal ~85, grades ~55.

Timing = 66×0.30 + 45×0.20 + 70×0.20 + 68×0.15 + 60×0.15 ≈ 62; tempered to 58 for the overbought-into-event entry. Relative strength: outperforming SPY (macro: SPY Strong Underperform short-term) and roughly in line with a strong Materials complex; 52-week range position ~57% (recovered hard off the C$20 low, ~27% below the C$53.57 high). Position-risk: nearest logical stop (C$32.79) is ~3.5 ATR(daily ~C$1.82) away — a wide stop, confirming the entry is extended.

Recent surprises (last 7d): June 15–16 data ran soft — Empty State Mfg 5.7 vs 14, Housing Starts −15.4% MoM (1.177M vs 1.43M f), Atlanta Fed GDPNow trimmed to 2.8% — a softening-growth tape that, with sticky import prices (+1.9% MoM), keeps the stagflation narrative (gold-supportive) alive. Read: with a high-impact FOMC inside the 3-day window for a high-sensitivity miner, the short-term signal is overridden to WAIT-FOR-EVENT; the next refresh is scheduled for Jun 18 (FOMC +1) to incorporate the outcome.

Interpretation: the monthly trend is a textbook strong uptrend (price far above its rising EMAs); the weekly/daily snapshot caught the bottom of a pullback (the Jun 5–10 flush to C$32.99), and price has since rebounded +19% to C$39.25, reclaiming the 20-day SMA (~C$38.4) and pressing the 200-day (~C$39.7). This is the classic "buy-the-dip-in-an-uptrend" setup — but the dip has already been bought hard in four sessions, hourly RSI is overbought (71), and price now sits directly under the C$40–42 resistance shelf (50-day SMA C$41.6). Level to watch: a hold above C$38 keeps the recovery intact; the C$41.6–44.8 zone is the next real test.

Fair value ~C$50 (probability-weighted, discounting the lagging C$62 consensus for peak-cycle gold and jurisdiction risk) — ~27% above the C$39.25 price. Probability-weighted 12-mo expected value ≈ C$50 (0.35×60 + 0.45×52 + 0.20×30 = C$50.4).

Position sizing not computed — no portfolio allocation or role was provided (batch run). Specify your intended allocation and whether this is a core or satellite holding for sizing guidance. Volatility context for what you'd be signing up for: beta ~1.35 (≈35% more volatile than the market); daily ATR ~C$1.82 (~4.6% of price); the stock swung from C$53.57 to C$32.99 (−38%) and back within this 6-month window — a high-amplitude, gold-levered name. The C$32.79 stop sits ~3.5 ATR below the current price, so a conventional 1-ATR stop is not available at this entry — size accordingly, or wait for a tighter setup near support. For medium/long horizons, staggering entries (e.g. tranches at current, ~C$36–37, and ~C$33) reduces timing risk given the volatility.

{
  "ticker": "K.TO", "exchange_ticker": "TSX:K", "isin": "CA4969024047",
  "company": "Kinross Gold Corporation", "date": "2026-06-16", "time": "1703", "version": "v6",
  "api_ticker": "K.TO", "us_ticker": "KGC", "currency_prices": "CAD", "currency_fundamentals": "USD",
  "price_at_rating": 39.25, "price_currency": "CAD",
  "signal_short": "WAIT_FOR_EVENT", "signal_medium": "STRONG_BUY", "signal_long": "STRONG_BUY",
  "quality_score": 78, "valuation_score": 76, "timing_score": 58,
  "driver_score": 85, "driver_label": "Strong Tailwind",
  "economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following", "economic_alignment_conviction": 85,
  "economic_alignment_pressure": "Tailwind", "economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
  "macro_report_date": "2026-06-13",
  "lifecycle_stage": "mature_cash_cow",
  "quality_detail": {"industry_benchmark_name": "AISC Margin", "industry_benchmark_value": 68, "industry_benchmark_score": 95, "moat_score": 52, "roic_capital_alloc": 74},
  "valuation_detail": {"fcf_yield": 9.0, "forward_pe": 8.2, "ev_ebitda": 6.2, "pb": 3.7, "historical_valuation_decile": 5},
  "timing_detail": {"mtf_confluence": 66, "risk_reward_score": 45, "rel_strength_vs_spy": "outperform", "catalyst_clustering_score": 60, "dynamic_macro_weight": 0.20},
  "analyst_consensus_target": 61.96, "analyst_target_high": 66.81, "analyst_target_low": 55.98,
  "analyst_target_upside_pct": 57.9, "analyst_target_currency": "CAD",
  "analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy", "analyst_bullish_pct": 58.6, "analyst_coverage_count": 8,
  "recent_upgrades_30d": 1, "recent_downgrades_30d": 0,
  "fmp_rating": "A", "fmp_overall_score": 4,
  "overall_confidence": 62,
  "fair_value_est": 50.0, "stop_loss": 32.79, "target_price": 52.0,
  "gates_triggered": [], "gates_caution": ["geographic/jurisdiction risk", "FOMC blackout (short-term)"],
  "do_not_buy_triggers": [], "hard_gate_state": "clear",
  "entry_criteria_total": 5, "entry_criteria_met": 1,
  "exit_criteria_total": 3, "exit_criteria_met": 0,
  "next_update_date": "2026-06-18", "next_check_date": "2026-06-18",
  "next_update_basis": "FOMC 2026-06-17 +1d (high-impact, rate-sensitive gold miner; SKILL §8 3-day window)",
  "analysis_status": "on-going", "finder_ticker": "KGC", "finder_exchange": "🇨🇦 TSX · 🇺🇸 NYSE", "section": "Gold Miners",
  "user_horizon": null, "user_allocation_pct": null, "portfolio_role": null
}

Plain read: Quality 78 · Valuation 76 · Timing 58 · Driver 85 · Economic Alignment Trend-Following/Tailwind (conv 85). Base BUY across horizons; amplified to STRONG BUY (Med/Long) by the gold tailwind + Strong-Outperform Materials economy; Short held at WAIT-FOR-EVENT by the FOMC blackout. Fair value ~C$50, stop C$32.79. Next refresh 2026-06-18.