NYSE:JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co.

ISIN: US46625H1005

Financials (Banks-Diversified)MatureUSD $325.22 · 18 Jun 2026

DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Horizon	Signal	Composite	Confidence	Key Driver
Short-term (1-3mo)	HOLD	58	62%	Overbought (RSI 72) at the 52-wk high — wait for a pullback toward the $308 SMA50
Medium-term (6-12mo)	HOLD	58	62%	Elite bank, but P/TBV ~3.0x and only +4.5% to consensus — great business, full price
Long-term (3-5yr)	HOLD	60	62%	Quality dominates but valuation is rich near highs; accumulate on weakness (HOLD doesn't amplify)

Next update: 2026-07-02 — default +14d (Q2 earnings ~mid-Jul, beyond the 14-day window)

Contents

1Five-Pillar Scorecard 2Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status 3Pillar Detail: Business Quality 4Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness 5Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers 6Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment 7Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing 8Economic Event Risk 9Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis 10Price Chart (6-Month Daily)11Scenario Summary 12Entry / Exit Rules 13Position Sizing Context 14Calibration Snapshot 15Data Sources & Methodology

Five-Pillar Scorecard

Five independent scores — Business Quality, Valuation, Entry/Exit Timing, Underlying Drivers, and Economic Alignment — each 0–100 with confidence. The per-horizon base BUY/HOLD/SELL comes from the three fundamental pillars via the Decision Matrix; the two context pillars then amplify a BUY to STRONG BUY or a SELL to STRONG SELL when both corroborate.

Business Quality

Best-in-class money-centre bank — ROTCE ~19.6%, CET1 ~15.4%, diversified across CCB/CIB/AWM.

Confidence: 85%

Valuation Attractiveness

Full — P/TBV ~3.0x near an all-time high, only +4.5% to the $339.75 consensus; quality is priced in.

Confidence: 75%

Entry/Exit Timing

Strong daily uptrend but overbought (RSI 72) at the 52-wk high $338 — a poor entry; pulled back 2.5% today.

Confidence: 62%

Underlying Drivers

Tailwind

Confidence: 65%

Economic Alignment

Trend-Following · Tailwind

Confidence: 70%

Quality 82 / Valuation 50 / Timing 58 set the base signals. With Valuation full and Timing overbought near the 52-wk high, the base is HOLD across all three horizons — ‘great business, full price.’ The Underlying Driver (65, Tailwind) and Economic Alignment (Trend-Following, Tailwind) are supportive, but amplification cannot fire on a HOLD. No hard gate tripped. Banks are judged on capital/credit, not debt/EBITDA.

Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status

Binary safety checks — leverage, liquidity, dilution, valuation ceiling, earnings/event blackout, and any sector-specific gates. A triggered hard gate caps or overrides the signal regardless of the scores; caution gates are position-sizing notes.

✅

Financial Distress
Bank — judged on capital, not debt/EBITDA. CET1 ~15.4%, fortress balance sheet; ignore the structural <1 current ratio.

⚠️

Valuation Ceiling
P/TBV ~3.0x sits near the top of JPM's historical range; price $325 is below the $391 high target, so no hard ceiling — but valuation is the binding constraint.

✅

Earnings Event
No earnings within 14 days (Q2 ~mid-July).

✅

Dilution/Accounting
Net buyback (share count falling); clean accounting.

✅

Macro-sensitivity WAIT
FOMC (06-17) passed — no event override.

Pillar Detail: Business Quality

Why Quality scored what it did: sector-appropriate economics, competitive moat, ROIC/capital allocation, management, and the industry benchmark — graded against sector norms and the company's own history.

Business Quality — Pillar Score

Best-in-class money-centre bank — ROTCE ~19.6%, CET1 ~15.4%, diversified across CCB/CIB/AWM.

Confidence 85%

Lifecycle: Mature · metric profile: Banks — ROTCE, CET1, efficiency, credit quality, P/TBV (NOT FCF/EV-EBITDA).

Sub-signal	Value	Sector median	Score	Note
ROTCE	~19.6%	~12-14%	88	Best-in-class returns on tangible equity
Net margin	20.7%	~20%	78	Diversified earnings across 4 segments
CET1 ratio	~15.4%	>11% strong	85	Fortress capital; ample buyback capacity
Tangible book/sh	$107.49 (P/TBV 3.0x)	—	70	Premium for the franchise

Industry Benchmark — ROE vs efficiency: ROTCE ~19.6% + a low-50s efficiency ratio → Score 86 (top-tier profitability + operating discipline).

Pricing Power

Deposit franchise / scale

Network

Payments + CIB network effects

Switching

Sticky primary-bank relationships

Cost Advantage

Scale + tech spend ($17B+/yr)

Intangibles

Banking charter, brand, data

Moat avg ~73 — scale, switching costs and a banking charter are durable advantages. Capital allocation elite (Dimon); buybacks + dividend well-covered (29% payout).

Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness

Why Valuation scored what it did: sector-appropriate multiples vs sector median and the stock's own history, FCF yield, reverse-DCF implied growth, embedded optionality, the analyst consensus target with upside math, and the FMP health cross-reference.

Valuation Attractiveness — Pillar Score

Full — P/TBV ~3.0x near an all-time high, only +4.5% to the $339.75 consensus; quality is priced in.

Confidence 75%

Multiple	Value	Sector median	Read
P/E	15.4x	~13x banks	Slight premium
P/TBV	3.0x	1.2-1.5x for 15% ROE	Rich (justified by ~19.6% ROTCE)
P/B	2.49x	~1.5x	Premium
Dividend	1.8% (29% payout)	—	Growing, well-covered

Bank FCF is not meaningful — use dividend yield (1.8%) + book-value growth as the cash-return anchor. The valuation question is P/TBV 3.0x: rich versus the 1.2-1.5x a 15%-ROE bank ‘deserves,’ but JPM's ~19.6% ROTCE and best-in-class franchise justify a premium. At a 52-wk-high P/TBV, much of the quality is priced in.

Embedded optionality: continued share buybacks at scale and CIB/markets upside in a steep-curve, risk-on regime are modest upside — but at 3.0x TBV near highs, the optionality is thinner than for cheaper banks. Not a re-rating case.

Targets: consensus $339.75 (high $391 / low $295) — only +4.5% upside (+20% to high). Grades: SB 1 / Buy 31 / Hold 27 / Sell 2 → Buy (~52% bullish, deep coverage).

Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers

The dominant external force the stock is tethered to, scored 0–100 for tailwind/headwind strength. A context pillar: it does not change the fundamental scores — it feeds amplification, where a tailwind ≥65 can lift a BUY to STRONG BUY and a headwind ≤35 can push a SELL to STRONG SELL.

Underlying Driver — Interest-rate regime + credit cycle (steep curve, risk-on)

Historical: NII benefited from higher-for-longer rates. Current: a steepening curve + risk-on markets lift NII and CIB/markets revenue; credit quality still benign. Forward: the macro report rates Financials (XLF) O/O/N — a tailwind short/medium, turning Neutral long as a private-credit/shadow-banking redemption overhang caps the sector. JPM, as the highest-quality money-centre bank, is favoured over private-credit-exposed lenders.

Label: Tailwind, score 65 — eligible to amplify, but the base signal is HOLD (valuation-capped), and HOLD never amplifies. The driver supports the thesis; it does not change the signal.

Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment

How the current economic climate sits relative to this stock, read from the latest Macro-Economic report. Classifies the macro pressure as Tailwind / Neutral / Headwind and frames a long entry as Trend-Following or Contrarian with a 0–100 conviction. The pressure is the second input to amplification.

Stance: Trend-Following · Pressure: Tailwind · Conviction 64/100.

Source: MacroEconomic report 2026-06-17 — Financials (XLF) rated O / O / N. The steep curve + Soft-Landing risk-on rotation favour large-cap banks; the long-horizon Neutral reflects the private-credit overhang (which falls on BDC-style lenders, not JPM). Pressure is a Tailwind, so a long would be Trend-Following — but it does not amplify a HOLD.

Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing

Why Timing scored what it did: the risk-reward setup anchored to the stop, relative strength vs SPY and the sector ETF, the macro overlay at sector-appropriate weight, news/grade-driven sentiment, and the 0–12-month catalyst cluster.

Entry/Exit Timing — Pillar Score

Strong daily uptrend but overbought (RSI 72) at the 52-wk high $338 — a poor entry; pulled back 2.5% today.

Confidence 62%

Risk-reward: at $325, near the 52-wk high $338 with daily RSI 72 (overbought), a logical stop sits ~8% away at the $300/SMA50 zone — an unfavourable entry (wide stop, little immediate upside to consensus). Relative strength: strong (top of the 52-wk range, leading the banks). Sentiment: Buy grades. Catalyst: Q2 earnings ~mid-July is the next mover. The setup favours waiting for a pullback rather than chasing the high.

Economic Event Risk

The next 14 days of high-impact macro releases that could swing this stock, plus the last seven days of surprises to read the current tape. For high-macro-sensitivity sectors, a high-impact release within 3 trading days triggers a short-term WAIT-FOR-EVENT override.

Date	Event	Impact	Relevant?	Why
17 Jun	FOMC (passed)	High	✅	Banks rate-sensitive; hold + steep curve supportive
25 Jun	US Core PCE (May)	High	⚠️	Confirms/falsifies soft-landing (credit-demand read)
~14 Jul	JPM Q2 earnings	High	✅	Next binary mover; NII + credit-cost guide

FOMC passing removes the rate overhang. Q2 earnings (~mid-July) is the next catalyst and the scheduling anchor; it falls just beyond the 14-day window, so the default +14d refresh runs first.

Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis

Trend, RSI, and breakout status across five timeframes (monthly → 15-min) with a confluence verdict. Read this to spot setups like a pullback within a higher-timeframe uptrend, or divergences that precede trend changes.

Timeframe	Trend	Dir	RSI	MACD	Key S/R	Breakout	Vol
Monthly	Uptrend ↑	Bullish	67.5	+	S 279 · R 337	Breakout	0.7x
Weekly	Uptrend ↑	Bullish	59.7	+ rising	S 290 · R 337	Breakout	1.1x
Daily	Strong Up ↑	Bullish (overbought)	72.1	+ rising	S 304 · R 320	Breakout	1.3x
Hourly	Weakening →	Neutral	33.3	-	S 319 · R 338	None	—
15-min	Downtrend ↓	Bearish	32.7	-	S 324 · R 338	Breakdown	—
Confluence: BULLISH — MTF ~70, but daily RSI 72 is overbought and intraday is pulling back from the $338 high.

All higher timeframes are in uptrends and JPM just printed new highs, but the daily RSI at 72 is overbought and the intraday has rolled over — a classic ‘extended into resistance’ setup. Strong trend, poor entry: better to accumulate on a pullback toward the $304-308 support/SMA50 than to chase $325 near the $338 high.

Price Chart (6-Month Daily)

A 6-month daily view with SMA50 and key support/resistance overlaid — the visual companion to the multi-timeframe table above.

6-month path: a steady climb from $272 to the $338 high, now $325 after a 2.5% pullback — extended above the rising SMA50 ($308.5). Support $304 then $293.

Scenario Summary

Bull, Base, and Bear 12-month paths with explicit triggers and probability weights. The base case is the probability-weighted centre of gravity; the tails show what must change.

Bull · 30%

Steep curve + strong CIB/markets + buybacks; multiple holds. $375 (+15%).

Base · 50%

Solid NII + benign credit; drifts to consensus. $340 (+5%).

Bear · 20%

Credit normalises / private-credit contagion + multiple compresses from 3.0x TBV. $290 (-11%).

Probability-weighted ≈ $342 — limited upside from $325; the rich P/TBV skews risk-reward toward waiting for a better entry.

Entry / Exit Rules

The specific, mechanical conditions to enter and exit. Entries must satisfy multiple independent checks; exits are governed by a hard stop, thesis invalidation, and profit-take rules. The “what if I act now?” box frames the trade-off at today's price.

Entry rules

Fundamental: accumulate < $310 (toward FV $320 / P/TBV <2.8x), no earnings <7d, driver ≥ 50 — 1/5 met (driver ✓; price above the accumulation zone).

Technical: pullback to the $304-308 SMA50 then a reclaim on volume, RSI back to 40-60 — not yet met (overbought).

Catalyst: Q2 beat + raised NII guide on >2x volume — pending mid-July.

Exit rules

Stop-loss: 2 daily closes below $300 (below SMA50/weekly support) — 0/3 triggered.

Thesis invalidation: credit costs spike / private-credit contagion, or CET1 erosion.

Profit-take: trim into the $391 high target with monthly RSI > 75.

Imagine you act at the current price $325.22 · as of 18 Jun 2026

What if you bought now?

You'd be risking ~$25 (-8%) to the $300 stop to gain ~$15 (+5%) to the $340 base.

Risking: stop $300 (-8%); bear $290 (-11%); buying overbought (RSI 72) at the 52-wk high — entry rules NOT met (above the accumulation zone).
Gaining: base $340 (+5%) · bull $375 (+15%); a 1.8% dividend + buyback compounding; the steep-curve tailwind.
Net: RR ~0.6:1 to base — unfavourable at this price. Acting now means chasing; waiting for $304-308 materially improves the deal.

What if you sold now?

You'd give up a modest +5% to consensus + a 1.8% dividend to protect against an ~11% bear drawdown from a rich multiple.

Giving up: limited upside to $340; the dividend/buyback; a best-in-class franchise.
Protecting: capital against P/TBV compression from 3.0x near highs. Exit rules triggered? None.
Net: no mechanical sell — but trimming into strength is defensible given the full valuation; a HOLD.

Position Sizing Context

A framework for translating conviction into an appropriate allocation given risk per share and sector volatility — illustrative portfolio math only, not advice.

Position sizing not computed — no allocation/role specified. Volatility: beta ~1.0, daily ATR ~$6.8 (~2.1%), 52-week range $272.11–$338.09. A core-quality bank, but the entry is extended.

Calibration Snapshot

A machine-readable snapshot of every score, sub-score, confidence, key level, and signal override, saved alongside the HTML so the next run can compute deltas and the watchlist monitor can trigger without parsing HTML.

{
  "_calpath": "/Users/davidwright/Documents/Claude/Projects/Investment Analyst/website/reports/JPM/calibration-JPM-20260618_0945.json",
  "ticker": "JPM",
  "exchange_ticker": "NYSE:JPM",
  "isin": "US46625H1005",
  "company": "JPMorgan Chase & Co.",
  "date": "2026-06-18",
  "version": "v6",
  "analysis_status": "on-going",
  "finder_ticker": "JPM",
  "finder_exchange": "\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 NYSE",
  "section": "Financials",
  "lifecycle_stage": "mature",
  "price_at_rating_usd": 325.22,
  "currency": "USD",
  "signal_short": "HOLD",
  "signal_medium": "HOLD",
  "signal_long": "HOLD",
  "composite_short": 58,
  "composite_medium": 58,
  "composite_long": 60,
  "quality_score": 82,
  "valuation_score": 50,
  "timing_score": 58,
  "driver_score": 65,
  "driver_label": "Tailwind",
  "economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
  "economic_alignment_conviction": 64,
  "economic_alignment_pressure": "Tailwind",
  "economic_alignment_source": "sector-map (XLF O/O/N)",
  "macro_report_date": "2026-06-17",
  "moat_score": 73,
  "roe_pct": 16.2,
  "rotce_pct": 19.6,
  "cet1_pct": 15.4,
  "p_tbv": 3.0,
  "pe": 15.4,
  "dividend_yield_pct": 1.8,
  "analyst_consensus_target": 339.75,
  "analyst_target_high": 391,
  "analyst_target_low": 295,
  "analyst_target_upside_pct": 4.5,
  "analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
  "analyst_bullish_pct": 52,
  "analyst_coverage_count": 61,
  "overall_confidence": 62,
  "fair_value_est": 320,
  "stop_loss": 300,
  "target_price": 340,
  "target_bull": 375,
  "target_bear": 290,
  "hard_gate_state": "caution",
  "gates_triggered": [],
  "gates_caution": [
    "valuation full (P/TBV ~3.0x near highs)",
    "bank: judged on capital not debt/EBITDA"
  ],
  "do_not_buy_triggers": [],
  "entry_criteria_total": 5,
  "entry_criteria_met": 1,
  "exit_criteria_total": 3,
  "exit_criteria_met": 0,
  "focus_qualifies": false,
  "next_update_date": "2026-07-02",
  "next_update_basis": "default +14d (Q2 earnings mid-Jul beyond window)"
}

Data Sources & Methodology

Reference — the audit trail of every data source used, which were fully available / required fallback / failed, and the confidence haircuts applied.

Data Sources

✓ get_company_profile, get_stock_snapshot, get_multi_timeframe_analysis, get_financial_ratios, get_price_target_consensus, get_grades_consensus (live) · ✓ ROTCE/CET1 from net-revenue lens (FMP ‘revenue’ for a bank is gross interest income — not used as growth) · ✓ MacroEconomic 2026-06-17.

Impact: overall confidence 62% — strong data coverage; the constraint is judgment on the premium P/TBV, not data gaps. First report for this ticker (promoted from the Stock-Finder Watchlist).