What changed since 2026-06-28. Short BUY → HOLD — a timing flip, not a fundamental one: the breakout to the 52-week high came on thin volume (~0.5×) with a negative daily MACD histogram, so the Short technical-confirmation cap applies ('buy on confirmation'). Medium BUY and Long BUY unchanged. Price C$292.0 → C$295.17. Valuation stays Fair (60); Quality 78, driver 62 unchanged. Economic alignment refined to the macro's per-horizon read S:O / M:O / L:N (was a single tailwind). No gate or Do-Not-Buy trigger. Next update pulled forward to ~Jul 29 (Q2 earnings + FOMC both now inside the 14-day window).
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Intact Financial Corporation
Intact Financial Corporation is Canada's largest provider of property and casualty (P&C) insurance, writing personal auto, personal property, and commercial lines across Canada, plus specialty and international operations in the US, UK, Ireland and Europe (the latter largely via its 2021 acquisition of RSA). Its core business is simple to grasp: it collects premiums up front, invests the resulting 'float' while claims are pending, and aims to pay out less in claims and expenses than it collects — a discipline measured by the combined ratio (below 100% means underwriting profit). Intact's edge is scale and data: as the domestic market leader (roughly one in five Canadian P&C dollars) it has a structural pricing- and cost-advantage, a claims-and-analytics engine rivals struggle to match, and a long record of disciplined, accretive consolidation (Canadian Direct, OneBeacon, RSA). Founded in 1809 and headquartered in Toronto, it is a mature, highly cash-generative compounder rather than a growth story.
| Horizon | Signal | Composite Score | Confidence | Key Driver |
|---|
| Short-term (1–3 mo) | HOLD | 58 | 55 | Buy on confirmation — the uptrend is intact but the breakout to the 52w high came on ~0.5x volume with a negative daily MACD histogram; the timing path is not yet confirmed. Cheap alone doesn't clear the short cap. |
| Medium-term (6–12 mo) | BUY | 64 | 58 | High-quality market leader at a Fair price (P/Book 2.64 vs justified ~3.7x); higher-for-longer lifts investment income; Financials in favour (macro O). All three fundamental pillars support a position here. |
| Long-term (3–5 yr) | BUY | 70 | 60 | Business quality dominates at 3-5yr: durable scale/data moat, disciplined M&A compounding, ~17% ROE. Long macro alignment is Neutral (curve-steepening tailwind maturing), so no amplification, but the compounder case stands. |
Next update: 2026-07-29 — Q2 earnings ~2026-07-28 + FOMC 2026-07-29 both inside the 14-day window; refresh the trading day after.
1
Five-Pillar Scorecard
Five independent scores — each 0–100 with its own confidence. The three fundamental pillars (Quality / Valuation / Timing) set the base BUY/HOLD/SELL via the Decision Matrix; the two context pillars (Underlying Drivers, Economic Alignment) then amplify a BUY to STRONG BUY or a SELL to STRONG SELL when both corroborate.
Business Quality
78
High
65
Valuation Attractiveness
60
Fair
62
Entry/Exit Timing
62
Constructive trend, unconfirmed entry
55
Underlying Drivers
62
Neutral (rates + cat cycle)
62
Economic Alignment
62
Trend-Following (Tailwind fading to Neutral long)
62
2
Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status
Binary safety checks — any TRIGGERED gate is a hard cap regardless of the scores above; CAUTION gates are sizing notes.
✅Gate 1 — Financial Distress
No distress. A/A- balance sheet, disciplined leverage for an insurer, ~29% payout, strong regulatory capital. FMP health rating A-.
⚠️Gate 2 — Earnings Event Risk
Q2 results due ~2026-07-28, inside 14 days. P&C prints rarely move >5% (beta 0.29), so this trims timing confidence rather than capping the signal. Fundamental entry group's 'no earnings within 7 days' still holds (~12 days out).
⚠️Gate 3 — Valuation Ceiling
Watch, not triggered. Insurance uses P/Book primary (never P/E): P/Book 2.64 vs justified ~3.73 = Fair, not Expensive. Forward P/E 15.6 sits just under the 16x insurance-floor arm. P/TBV ~4.9x is high but reflects RSA/OneBeacon goodwill — the deposit-taker P/TBV>=3.0x line does not govern a P&C insurer. No ceiling gate.
✅Gate 4 — Accounting / Dilution
No dilution flag; share count broadly stable. Earnings are underwriting + investment income — no material non-operating mark-to-market inflation (nonop_pct ~n/a).
✅Gate 5 — Regulatory / Binary Event
No pending binary regulatory or legal event.
Gate summary — no hard gate triggered; three cautions. No Do-Not-Buy trigger fires. The Short signal is capped to HOLD by the technical-confirmation cap (not a gate): the Fundamental entry group is met but Technical and Catalyst are not, so a short BUY is not yet earned.
3
Pillar Detail: Business Quality
A deep dive into the Quality score: business economics, moat, ROIC and the industry benchmark.
Business Quality — Pillar Score
A high-quality, wide-moat market leader with ~17% ROE and consistent underwriting profitability.
78
Combined Ratio ~91% · ROE 17.2% · ROA 5.1% · FMP A-
Intact is a Mature Financials / P&C Insurance name, scored on the insurance lens: combined ratio, ROE, reserve/underwriting discipline and investment-income yield — not revenue growth, FCF or gross margin (structurally misleading for an insurer, whose 'inventory' is money and whose economics are inverted — premium first, claims later).
| Sub-signal | Value | Read | Score |
|---|
| Combined ratio (industry benchmark) | ~91% (Q1-2026) | Well below 100% = solid underwriting profit | ['86','metric-good'] |
| Return on Equity | 17.2% | Exceptional for a P&C insurer (>15% = top-tier) | ['82','metric-good'] |
| Return on Assets | 5.1% | Healthy asset efficiency | ['70','metric-good'] |
| Balance sheet / capital | FMP A-, low leverage | Strong regulatory capital, disciplined debt | ['78','metric-good'] |
| Investment income | Rising | Higher-for-longer rates lift float/reinvestment yield | ['72','metric-good'] |
INDUSTRY BENCHMARK: Combined Ratio ~91%
Rating: STRONG — comfortably below the 95% 'strong' threshold, i.e. Intact makes money on underwriting before a dollar of investment income. Benchmark score 86/100.
Pricing power 68
Market-leading scale + data give repeated, absorbed rate increases in hard P&C markets.
Network effects 50
N/A for insurance (neutral).
Switching costs 58
Moderate — renewal inertia, bundling, broker relationships; consumers can and do shop.
Cost advantage 78
Structural scale and claims-analytics cost edge as the domestic #1.
Intangible assets 66
Brand, distribution, regulatory footprint; RSA/specialty franchises.
Moat score 64 (average). ROIC/capital allocation: a long record of accretive consolidation (OneBeacon, RSA) and disciplined capital returns underpins a ~17% ROE; capital-allocation 80, management skin-in-game 68.
Competitive Environment. Intact is the clear #1 in Canadian P&C (~20% share), competing with Definity Financial (fast-growing challenger, expanding after demutualisation), Aviva Canada, TD Insurance, Co-operators, and Wawanesa. Share trajectory is stable — Intact holds/consolidates its lead, though Definity is a credible share-taker at the margin and the market is consolidating (Intact itself has been the consolidator). Threat level moderate: no structural disruptor, but pricing competition and Definity's growth cap complacency. This feeds Switching-Costs (58) and Pricing-Power (68) above.
| Rival | Position | Share trend vs Intact |
|---|
| Definity Financial | Growing challenger | Gaining at the margin |
| Aviva Canada | Top-5 incumbent | Stable |
| TD Insurance | Bank-owned direct | Stable |
| Co-operators / Wawanesa | Mutual/regional | Stable |
4
Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness
Sector-appropriate multiples, FCF yield, reverse-DCF implied growth, embedded optionality, and the analyst-consensus cross-check.
Valuation Attractiveness — Pillar Score
Fair — cheap-ish on the insurer's P/Book anchor but at the top of its own 5-year range with only single-digit upside to consensus.
60
P/Book 2.64 · Justified P/B ~3.73 · Fwd P/E 15.6 · PEG 0.49 · Div 2.0%
Insurance is valued on P/Book primary (never P/E) per the sector profile. The warranted-multiple anchor for a bank/insurer is the justified P/B = (ROE − g)/(r − g).
Anchor. With the 10-Y above 4.5% (macro report 2026-07-14) the discount rate r = risk-free 4.5% + ERP 4.5% + 0.0% (Quality ≥65) = 9.0%; disciplined g = 6% (defensive/Financials cap, ~0.75× haircut of ~11.5% consensus, capped). Justified P/B = (0.172 − 0.06)/(0.090 − 0.06) = ~3.73×. Actual P/Book 2.64× → ratio 0.71 → Attractive on the anchor. Cross-check on earnings: warranted P/E ~19.5× vs forward 15.6× → ratio 0.80, also attractive.
| Lens | Read | Effect |
|---|
| Anchor — justified P/B (40%) | 2.64 vs 3.73 (ratio 0.71) | Attractive |
| Sector median (20%) | In line with quality P&C peers | Fair |
| Own-history decile (15%) | Decile 8 — top of its 5yr P/B range; price at 52w high | Expensive-leaning — the key drag |
| PEG (10%) | 0.49 (fwd P/E 15.6 vs ~11-12% growth) | Attractive |
| Analyst consensus (15%) | Median C$320 (~8% up); 9/13 bullish | Fair |
The anchor says cheap, but own-history decile 8, a price sitting at the 52-week high after +13% in 60 days, and only ~8% to the median target pull the blended score to Fair (60) — not Attractive. Valuation is a support for a position, not a screaming-cheap entry.
P/TBV note (why no Valuation-Ceiling gate). Tangible book is depressed by ~C$9B of RSA/OneBeacon goodwill+intangibles, so P/TBV is ~4.9× — above the deposit-taker guardrail line of 3.0×. But that line is calibrated for balance-sheet lenders; the Insurance sector profile explicitly uses P/Book as primary and forward P/E 15.6 sits just under the 16× insurance-floor arm. So the guardrail does not govern, and Gate 3 does not fire — logged here for audit.
Embedded Optionality / Free Upside. (i) A sustained higher-for-longer rate regime steadily re-prices the investment book at richer reinvestment yields — a multi-quarter tailwind not fully in numbers; (ii) further disciplined bolt-on/specialty consolidation, Intact's proven compounding lever; (iii) UK/Ireland (RSA) margin normalisation. Modest tilt (+3-5), not a re-rating.
5
Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers
The dominant external force the stock is tethered to, scored 0–100. A context pillar: it does not change the base signal — it feeds amplification (tailwind ≥65 can lift BUY→STRONG BUY; headwind ≤35 can push SELL→STRONG SELL).
Intact's fortunes sit above its own execution on two external forces: the interest-rate regime (higher-for-longer lifts investment income on the float — a genuine tailwind) and the catastrophe-loss cycle (climate-driven cat events pressure the combined ratio; reinsurance pricing follows).
| Horizon | Read | Note |
|---|
| Historical (25%) | Supportive | Rate normalisation has rebuilt investment income; underwriting stayed disciplined |
| Current (50%) | Mixed | 10-Y >4.5% = investment-yield tailwind; but an active European heatwave/cat season is a live combined-ratio watch (RSA exposure) |
| Forward (25%) | Neutral | Fed on hold (~3.75%); curve-steepening tailwind maturing; cat frequency structurally rising |
Driver score 62 (Neutral). The rate tailwind is real but the cat cycle offsets it, so the driver is below the 65 amplification threshold — no STRONG BUY at any horizon. The one live news item (record European heatwaves) is a reminder that the cat leg is a live watch, not a distant tail.
6
Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment
How the current economic climate sits relative to this stock, read from the latest Macro-Economic report. Classifies the macro pressure (Tailwind / Neutral / Headwind) — the second amplification input — and frames a long entry as Trend-Following or Contrarian with a 0–100 conviction.
The macro report rates IFC Outperform Short and Medium, Neutral Long: a Canadian P&C insurer where higher-for-longer lifts float/investment yield, domestic and tariff-insulated, with the private-credit fault line only a mild watch (not a direct hit). Financials sector short signal is Outperform. Long fades to Neutral as the curve-steepening tailwind matures. So Economic pressure is a Tailwind at Short/Medium and Neutral at Long — no amplification (driver <65 anyway).
Source: Macro watchlist_forecast — IFC.TO S:O / M:O / L:N · Macro report 2026-07-14
7
Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing
The risk-reward framework, relative strength vs SPY and the sector ETF, the macro overlay, news-derived sentiment, and the catalyst cluster.
Entry/Exit Timing — Pillar Score
Higher-timeframe trend is firmly bullish; the near-term entry is unconfirmed (thin-volume breakout, fading daily momentum, intraday pullback).
62
MTF bullish · above rising SMA50/200 · RSI ~61 · breakout on 0.5x vol
Monthly, weekly and daily all read uptrend/strong-uptrend, above a rising SMA50 (276.9) and SMA200 (268.6), with a resistance breakout on the daily. Price is +6.9% over 20 days and +13.5% over 60 days, near the 52-week high (310.8). But the breakout is on thin volume (daily 0.5×, weekly 0.37× the average — the timing pillar calls a sub-1.0× breakout 'suspect'), the daily MACD histogram is negative (−0.50), and both intraday timeframes (hourly, 15-min) have rolled over. RSI ~61-64 is constructive but not overbought.
Relative strength: XLF/Financials in an Outperform regime; IFC leading. Risk-reward: price sits closer to resistance/52w high than to support, so the near-term entry is unfavourable — a pullback into C$272-277 (SMA50 / prior breakout) is the better-risk-reward zone. This is why the Short is 'buy on confirmation', not buy now.
8
Economic Event Risk
High-impact macro releases in the next 14 days that could swing this stock, plus the last 7 days of surprises.
Upcoming events (next 30 days)
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Intact Q2 2026 earnings (est.) | High | EPS ~C$5+ | Q1 C$4.13 | Yes | Direct — combined ratio, investment income, cat losses |
| 2026-07-29 | Fed Interest Rate Decision | High | 3.75% (hold) | 3.75% | Yes | Rate regime drives investment income; Financials rate-sensitive |
| 2026-07-30 | US Core PCE / Q2 GDP | High | PCE +0.3% | +0.3% | Medium | Confirms the rate path |
Recent surprises (last 7 days)
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|
| 2026-07-14 | US CPI YoY (Jun) | 3.5% | 3.8% | Below (disinflationary) | Soft — nudges rate-cut odds; macro still holds IFC O/O/N |
| 2026-07-15 | US PPI MoM (Jun) | -0.3% | n/a | Below | Reinforces the soft-inflation read |
Two directly relevant high-impact events cluster inside the next two weeks — Intact's Q2 print (~Jul 28) and the FOMC (Jul 29). Both are catalysts and both set the next-update date. June inflation came in soft (CPI 3.5% YoY, PPI negative), a marginal dovish nudge, but the 2026-07-14 macro report already digested it and keeps IFC at O/O/N and the regime 'Stagflation-lite, narrow lead.'
9
Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis
Trend, RSI and breakout status across monthly / weekly / daily / hourly / 15-minute, with a confluence verdict.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend ↑ | Bullish | 60 | + (hist −) | S: 242.9 R: 317.4 | Resist. breakout | 0.5x |
| Weekly | Uptrend ↑ | Bullish | 65 | + rising | S: 261.4 R: 310.8 | Resist. breakout | 0.4x |
| Daily | Strong Up ↑ | Bullish | 61 | + but hist −0.5 | S: 272.6 R: 304.3 | Resist. breakout | 0.5x |
| Hourly | Downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 45 | − falling | S: 291.9 R: 299.0 | Support breakdown | 1.8x |
| 15-min | Strong Down ↓ | Bearish | 48 | − falling | S: 291.9 R: 298.0 | Support breakdown | 4.3x |
| Confluence: Bullish (higher TFs) with an intraday pullback · MTF Score 72 |
The primary and intermediate trends (monthly/weekly/daily) are solidly bullish and above rising moving averages — the structure supports a medium/long position. The catch is confirmation: the breakout carries only ~0.5× volume and the daily MACD histogram has ticked negative, while both intraday timeframes have turned down. That is a stall at the 52-week high, not a fresh volume-backed thrust. Watch C$272-277 (SMA50 / prior breakout) as the higher-probability entry, and C$304 as the level a clean, volume-backed breakout would clear.
10
Price Chart (6-Month Daily)
A 6-month daily close line with SMA50 and key support/resistance — the visual companion to the MTF table.
IFC.TO, ~12 months of daily closes (CAD). A Q1-2026 selloff to ~C$243 has fully recovered; the stock is back near its 52-week high after a +13% 60-day run, but the final push came on thin volume.
11
Scenario Summary
Bull / Base / Bear 12-month price paths with triggers and probability weights.
Bull C$355 (25%)
Combined ratio holds in the low-90s with a benign cat season, investment income keeps climbing on a higher-for-longer curve, and a fresh accretive bolt-on lands. ROE holds ~17%+ and the multiple nudges toward the top of its range. ~+22% plus a ~2% dividend.
Base C$320 (55%)
Steady compounding: mid-single-digit book-value growth, ~17% ROE, disciplined underwriting, investment income a tailwind. The stock tracks toward the consensus median C$320 as earnings deliver — a high-quality name at a fair price grinding higher. ~+8% plus ~2% dividend.
Bear C$262 (20%)
A severe cat season (the live European-heatwave/climate watch) pushes the combined ratio up, an equity/credit wobble hits the investment book, or the rate tailwind reverses on aggressive cuts. The rich-for-its-own-history multiple de-rates toward the SMA200 / prior breakout. ~−11%. This is the primary risk given price at the 52w high.
Probability-weighted fair value ≈ C$318 (0.25×355 + 0.55×320 + 0.20×262). Slight upside to the C$295 price; the risk-reward is balanced, consistent with a Fair valuation and a Hold-then-buy-on-confirmation short stance.
12
Entry / Exit Rules
Three independent entry paths (Fundamental · Technical · Catalyst) and three exit triggers (Stop-Loss · Thesis · Profit-Target). Any one entry path is a valid entry — the more that agree, the larger the position the conviction ladder suggests. Exits are graded by severity, not count.
How to read this — the Conviction Ladder
The three entry groups are alternative paths to a buy, not a checklist. A group counts only when all its sub-conditions hold. How many groups are satisfied sets the suggested size — it does not gate whether you may enter: 1 group = Half-Size (a valid starter/scale-in), 2 = Full-Size, 3 = Over-Size (highest conviction); 0 = Wait (no path open yet). A strong overall signal can still read Wait here when the stock is well above its entry zones — that flags "good business, no entry edge right now," not a contradiction. Exits are graded by severity of what is live, not by a count: a hard stop is an Exit on its own.
Entry conviction: Half-Size1 of 3 groups met — one path open — starter / scale-in
Fundamental — MET
Cheap-enough on the insurer anchor and supported.
✅ Price C$295 < fair value ~C$308
✅ No earnings within 7 calendar days (Q2 ~Jul 28, ~12d out)
✅ Underlying-Driver score 62 ≥ 50
Technical — not MET
Trend is up but the entry trigger is not confirmed.
⛔ Close > SMA50 on volume > 1.5x the 20-day avg (breakout came on ~0.5x)
⛔ OR tested bounce off weekly/monthly support with a higher low (price at 52w high, not at support)
✅ RSI 35-65 (RSI ~61)
⛔ Daily MACD histogram positive ≥ 2 days OR turning up off support (histogram −0.50)
Catalyst — not MET
No confirming event yet.
· Post-earnings move within 24h > +5% (Q2 not yet reported)
· Guidance raised or maintained
⛔ Volume > 2x the 20-day average
Forecast: Fundamental group is MET now → Half-Size is available today for a medium/long position. The Technical group is the near-term watch: a close above C$304 on >1.5× volume with the daily MACD histogram turning positive would confirm a breakout entry — plausible within 2-4 weeks IF the Q2 print (~Jul 28) beats and volume returns, but UNLIKELY on the current thin, fading tape without that catalyst. The higher-probability path is a pullback into C$272-277 (SMA50 / prior breakout) forming a higher low — moderate likelihood over the next 4-6 weeks on any post-print or macro wobble. Either path flips the Short from HOLD to BUY and takes the position to Full-Size.
Exit action: Holdno exit trigger is live — hold the position
Stop-Loss — not LIVE
⛔ Close below C$262 (below SMA200 / prior breakout) for 2 consecutive days
Thesis Invalidation — not LIVE
⛔ Combined ratio deteriorates above ~100% (underwriting loss) for 2+ quarters
⛔ ROE falls durably below ~12%
⛔ Rate/cat driver turns to a sustained headwind
Profit-Target — not LIVE
⛔ Price reaches median target C$320 AND
⛔ RSI > 70 AND
⛔ Quality has not improved to justify the higher multiple
Forecast: No exit trigger is live. The C$262 stop is ~11% below and beneath both the SMA50 and SMA200 — unlikely in the next 4-6 weeks absent a severe cat print or a sector-wide risk-off. The Q2 report (~Jul 28) is the nearest risk event; a large cat-loss miss is the most plausible route toward the stop.
Imagine you act at the current price of C$295.17 · as of 2026-07-16
What if you bought now?
Buy-on-confirmation: a close > C$304 on >1.5× volume with the daily MACD histogram positive, OR a pullback into C$272-277 forming a higher low. Either confirms the Technical group and flips the Short to BUY (Full-Size).
What if you sold now?
Reduce/exit: two consecutive daily closes below C$262, or a combined-ratio break above 100% sustained for 2+ quarters.
13
Position Sizing Context
Illustrative portfolio math (not advice) translating conviction into an allocation given risk-per-share and volatility.
Position sizing not computed — no portfolio allocation or role was specified. The §12 Conviction Ladder reads Half-Size (1 of 3 entry paths met): the Fundamental path is open today for a medium/long starter, but a short-term buyer should wait for the Technical/Catalyst confirmation above. Specify an allocation and role for a sized figure.
14
Calibration Snapshot
Machine-readable snapshot of every score, level and signal, saved alongside the HTML so the next run can compute deltas.
{
"ticker": "IFC.TO",
"exchange_ticker": "TSX:IFC",
"isin": "CA45823T1066",
"company": "Intact Financial Corporation",
"currency": "CAD",
"date": "2026-07-16",
"analysis_status": "on-going",
"price_at_rating": 295.17,
"signal_short": "HOLD",
"signal_medium": "BUY",
"signal_long": "BUY",
"primary_signal": "BUY",
"quality_score": 78,
"valuation_score": 60,
"timing_score": 62,
"driver_score": 62,
"moat_score": 64,
"val_band": "fair",
"warranted_multiple": 19.5,
"actual_multiple": 15.6,
"warranted_ratio": 0.8,
"justified_pb": 3.73,
"price_to_book": 2.64,
"economic_alignment_short": "O",
"economic_alignment_medium": "O",
"economic_alignment_long": "N",
"economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Tailwind-fading",
"short_entry_confirmed": false,
"entry_groups_met": 1,
"entry_conviction": "Half-Size",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"hard_gate_state": "caution",
"gates_triggered": [],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"competitive_share_trajectory": "stable",
"competitive_threat_level": "moderate",
"fair_value_est": 308.0,
"stop_loss": 262.0,
"target_price": 320.0,
"scenario_bull_target": 355,
"scenario_base_target": 320,
"scenario_bear_target": 262,
"next_update_date": "2026-07-29",
"next_update_basis": "Q2 earnings ~2026-07-28 + FOMC 2026-07-29 (+1 trading day)"
}
S HOLD / M BUY / L BUY. The short flips BUY→HOLD vs the prior report purely on the technical-confirmation cap (thin-volume breakout at the 52w high, negative daily MACD histogram) — a timing call, not a quality or valuation downgrade. Medium and Long BUY are unchanged: a high-quality, wide-moat Canadian P&C leader at a Fair price with a rate tailwind. No hard gate, no Do-Not-Buy trigger; driver 62 (<65) means no STRONG-BUY amplification at any horizon.
15
Data Sources & Methodology
Audit trail of every data source: fully available (✓), fallback (⚠), or failed (✗), plus provenance-based confidence haircuts.
Data Source Status
✓
get_yahoo_quote (IFC.TO) Price C$295.17, P/B 2.64, ROE 17.2%, beta 0.29, div 2.0%, targets, 13 analysts — CAD confirmed
✓
get_company_profile / get_financial_ratios ISIN CA45823T1066, ~176.8M shares (verified via mktcap/price), P&C insurer, sub-industry confirmed
⚠
get_income_statement Quarterly revenue/net income available (FMP net revenue used, not gross); margins per get_financial_ratios. No non-operating-gain distortion for an insurer
✓
get_multi_timeframe_analysis / get_stock_prices 250 daily bars; MTF across 5 timeframes; SMA50 276.9, SMA200 268.6; breakout on 0.5x volume, daily MACD histogram −0.50 → Technical entry group UNMET
✓
get_price_target_consensus / get_grades_consensus Median C$320, mean C$322.85, high 372, low 275; 5 strong-buy / 4 buy / 4 hold = 69% bullish
✓
get_ratings_snapshot FMP A- (overall 4); DCF 5, ROE 4, ROA 4
⚠
get_stock_grades Only a stale 2022 UBS action returned — no grade change in the last 30 days (0 up / 0 down)
✓
get_economic_calendar / get_earnings_calendar Q2 earnings ~Jul 28; FOMC Jul 29; soft June CPI/PPI. Earnings-calendar tool returned no IFC.TO row — date carried from prior report + issuer cadence
✓
Macro / Portfolio state (2026-07-14) IFC watchlist S:O/M:O/L:N; Financials sleeve XLF 4%; 10-Y >4.5% used for r; AI-concentration tail armed but IFC is NOT in that cohort (P&C insurer, no AI leverage) → no systemic tail leg inherited
✓
Warranted-multiple anchor (P/Book) r=9.0% (10-Y 4.5% @2026-07-14 + 4.5% ERP + 0), g=6%; justified P/B 3.73 vs actual 2.64 (ratio 0.71). P/TBV ~4.9x noted but the deposit-taker 3.0x line does not govern a P&C insurer whose primary multiple is P/Book; fwd P/E 15.6 just under the 16x insurance floor → no Gate 3
Impact on scores: High data coverage on this liquid large-cap. Main uncertainty is the near-term tape (thin-volume breakout) and the Q2 cat-loss print, both reflected in the capped Short and the Fair valuation.
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.