Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) runs a global network of regulated financial marketplaces — 13 exchanges and 6 clearing houses — where energy, agricultural, metals, financial and equity derivatives are listed, traded and cleared, alongside the New York Stock Exchange. Beyond the trading floors it sells the plumbing of modern finance: fixed-income pricing and reference data, analytics and connectivity (its Fixed Income & Data Services arm), and a proprietary software stack for the U.S. residential mortgage industry (Mortgage Technology, built on the Ellie Mae and Black Knight acquisitions). What sets ICE apart is the combination of regulated, near-monopoly benchmark franchises — ICE Brent, U.S. natural gas, the NYSE listing venue — whose liquidity is self-reinforcing, with a large and growing base of recurring subscription revenue (~half of net revenue) that cushions the cyclical transaction line. Think of it as a toll network on the flow of capital, energy and mortgages, founded in 2000 and headquartered in Atlanta.
Lifecycle & sector. ICE is a mature, capital-light financial — a quality compounder (GICS Financials / Capital Markets: exchanges, clearing, fixed-income data and mortgage technology). It is not a deposit-taking bank, so it is scored on the exchange/data lens — forward P/E, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, recurring-revenue mix, ROE and operating margin — not P/TBV (tangible book is negative at −$28/sh because two decades of acquisitions — IDC, Ellie Mae, Black Knight — sit as goodwill, which is a feature of the roll-up model, not a solvency signal). Net-revenue growth runs mid-single-digit with a >50% recurring core, which places it firmly in the mature/compounder band rather than high-growth.
Q2 2026 (reported 30 Jul 2026), the freshest print. Net revenue $2.70bn, +5% YoY; GAAP diluted EPS $1.69, +14% YoY. Segment net revenue: Exchanges $1.464bn (+3%) — energy −13% to $518m offset by gains in ags & metals, financials, cash equities/options and data & connectivity; Fixed Income & Data Services $645m (+8%) on strong net-new pricing & reference-data business; Mortgage Technology $557m (+5%), its best quarter since 2022. Recurring revenue $1.35bn, +7.7%; total futures & options open interest +18% YoY as of 28 Jul. This is the shape of the business we want to see: the transaction line is cyclical, but the recurring data/analytics and mortgage-software lines compounded through it.
| Sub-signal | ICE value | Peer / context | Score | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-revenue trajectory | +5% YoY (Q2); ~+6% TTM | Exchange peers +4–8% | ["70","metric-good"] | Steady mid-single-digit, recurring-led |
| Operating profitability | Op margin ~52% (EBITDA margin 52.0%); adj. op margin ~60%+ | Elite for any sector | ["88","metric-good"] | Toll-booth economics |
| Recurring-revenue mix | $1.35bn/qtr, ~50% of net rev, +7.7% | Data/analytics secular grower | ["82","metric-good"] | De-risks the transaction cycle |
| Cash generation | FCF/sh $5.52; FCF ~$3.1bn; FCF conv ~0.88 | Strong & consistent | ["78","metric-good"] | Funds dividend + buyback + de-lever |
| Balance sheet | Net debt/EBITDA ~2.8×; int. cover 7.7×; debt $20.5bn (mostly fixed) | <3× healthy for stable cashflows | ["66","metric-neutral"] | Manageable; de-levering post-Black Knight |
| Returns | ROE 14.1%; ROA 2.2% | ROE >10% healthy | ["64","metric-neutral"] | Solid; goodwill dampens ROA/ROIC |
Moat average ≈ 80/100 — a genuinely wide moat. The switching-cost and cost-advantage sub-scores are set from the Competitive Environment read below, not in the abstract.
| Rival | Where they compete | Share trajectory (ICE) | Moat-erosion vector |
|---|---|---|---|
| CME Group | Futures & options (rates, equity-index, energy) | Stable — largely non-overlapping franchises (ICE = energy/ags/Brent; CME = rates/equity-index) | Product encroachment at the margin; new-contract launches |
| Nasdaq | Listings, market data, market technology | Stable / slight gains in fixed-income data | Listings competition for IPOs; index/data pricing |
| LSEG | Fixed-income data & analytics (Refinitiv), clearing (LCH) | Holding — ICE FIDS +8% on net-new business | Data-platform bundling; OTC clearing |
| S&P Global / Moody's / MSCI | Pricing, reference & index data | Gaining in evaluated pricing / reference data | Index-franchise strength; ratings/data cross-sell |
| Mortgage-tech (Blend, Dark Matter, in-house) | Loan-origination software (Encompass) | Cyclically recovering — best quarter since 2022, but volume-tethered | The genuine soft spot: origination volumes are rate-sensitive; smaller rivals undercut on price |
→ Net effect on the moat: Switching Costs held at 80, Cost Advantage trimmed to 68 (peers match ICE at scale). Core network intact; mortgage-tech is the watch-item.
The lens. ICE is a capital-light compounder, so it is valued on forward P/E, EV/EBITDA and FCF yield against a warranted multiple — never P/TBV. The guardrail “rich” line for capital-light financials (card networks, exchanges, ratings, asset managers) is P/E ≥ 30×; ICE is nowhere near it.
Implied-growth read (narrative colour). At $152.85 on ~$7.45 forward EPS, the market embeds roughly 7–8% five-year EPS growth — almost exactly our disciplined estimate. The price is neither pricing in a data-driven acceleration nor a stall: it embeds the base case. That is why this reads Fair rather than cheap.
| Lens | ICE | Reference | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E | ~20.5× (adj NTM); 17.6× on GAAP fwd EPS $8.70 | CME 22.3× · SPGI 20.6× · ICE 5-yr avg ~22× | ["Cheaper than CME, ~ SPGI, below own history","metric-good"] |
| Trailing P/E | 21.5× | Guardrail rich line 30× | ["Well below the rich line","metric-good"] |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | 15.1× | CME ~24.7× EBITDA | ["Reasonable for the sector","metric-good"] |
| FCF yield (FCF/EV) | ~2.9% | 3–5% = fair for quality growth | ["Edge of expensive on cash","metric-neutral"] |
| PEG | ~2.5 | >2 = full on growth-adjusted basis | ["The one full-ish gauge","metric-neutral"] |
| Dividend yield | 1.33% ($2.08), ~21–28% payout | Low yield / high cover | ["Return is via buyback, not yield","metric-neutral"] |
Blended valuation = 63/100 (Fair, upper end). The anchor sits right at the Fair/Attractive line (ratio ~0.99); the ~16.6% consensus upside and below-peer, below-own-history multiple pull up; but a 2.9% FCF yield and a ~20× forward keep it out of clearly-Attractive. Disciplined call: fairly priced, not a bargain.
Primary driver = a three-part composite: (1) market transaction volumes (energy/ags/financial futures, cash equities, options), (2) the interest-rate & mortgage cycle (higher-for-longer helps float/clearing income but throttles mortgage-origination volumes), and (3) the secular growth of data & analytics (recurring subscriptions). Because the business is diversified across all three, no single driver has the leverage it would over a pure-play — which is exactly why ICE is a compounder rather than a geared bet.
| Horizon | Read | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Historical (25%) | Volumes & recurring revenue have compounded through the cycle; F&O open interest +18% YoY; recurring +7.7%. | ["Supportive","metric-good"] |
| Current (50%) | Elevated volatility (Iran/Hormuz re-escalation, tariff uncertainty) is a mild transaction-volume tailwind — but Q2 energy revenue actually fell 13% YoY, and higher-for-longer rates cut both ways (good for float income, a headwind to mortgage volumes, though mortgage-tech still had its best quarter since 2022). | ["Mixed / mild tailwind","metric-neutral"] |
| Forward (25%) | Secular data/analytics demand + a multi-year mortgage-volume normalisation option; near-term volumes hinge on whether volatility persists or fades. | ["Tailwind","metric-good"] |
ICE is Financials; mapped to the macro Driver-Sector Impact Matrix, XLF reads Neutral / Neutral / Neutral across Short/Medium/Long. The 30-Jul MacroDriver regime is Stagflation-lite (energy shock re-armed on Iran/Hormuz re-escalation, policy-tight into cooling growth; a narrow, contested, tape-unconfirmed lead). For ICE specifically the elevated market volatility is a mild positive on the transaction line short-term, but higher-for-longer rates are a mixed input (float income up, mortgage volumes constrained) and the sector signal is flat. Net pressure = Neutral — so Economic Alignment does not enable an amplification to STRONG BUY on any horizon; the base signals stand. The armed S&P-concentration / AI-earnings-quality tail does not apply — ICE is not an AI-cohort name and its earnings are not levered to the AI trade.
Source: GICS sector → macro Driver-Sector Impact Matrix (XLF) · Macro report 2026-07-30
The setup in one line: a sharp V-recovery off the 28-Jun 52-week low ($121.79) has carried ICE ~+25% to $152.85 in four weeks, straight into the 200-day moving average ($154.76) with a daily RSI of 74 (overbought) — and the stock faded ~2% off its 29-Jul high after the 30-Jul earnings beat. Good business, poor entry right now: you are chasing a vertical move into resistance.
| Component | Read | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Multi-timeframe trend | Monthly uptrend, weekly downtrend, daily uptrend (overbought), hourly strong-uptrend, 15-min weakening — confluence bullish but stretched | ["63","metric-neutral"] |
| Risk-reward / position-risk | Price at 200-DMA resistance; nearest logical stop ~$137 is ~10% / >2.5 ATR away — a wide stop = unfavourable entry geometry | ["32","metric-bad"] |
| Relative strength | Down ~19% from the 52w high while the index sits near highs; recovering hard but still a 3-month laggard | ["45","metric-neutral"] |
| Macro overlay (High sensitivity) | Fed on-hold/hawkish, VIX elevated, XLF Neutral — no wind at the back | ["42","metric-neutral"] |
| Sentiment | 89% bullish grades, estimates rising — but the post-earnings fade tempers it | ["62","metric-neutral"] |
| Catalyst layer | Q2 just cleared (30 Jul); calm 30-day calendar; next earnings ~late Oct | ["70","metric-good"] |
Timing = 49/100 (Neutral). The trend is up but overbought and into resistance, the entry geometry is poor (wide stop), and relative strength is only just turning. This is a “wait for a pullback” tape, not a “chase the breakout” one. The preferred entry zone is a pullback into $143–147 (rising 20-EMA / weekly support) where the stop tightens and RSI resets.
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Core PCE (Jun) | High | — | — | ⚠ Medium | Rates/vol read; drives financials multiples & volatility (ICE volumes) |
| 2026-08-01 | Tariff deadline / escalation | High | — | — | ⚠ Medium | Risk-off & volatility can lift transaction volumes short-term |
| 2026-08-01 | ISM Manufacturing / Jobs (wk) | Medium | — | — | ⚠ Medium | Growth read feeds the Stagflation-lite regime & rate path |
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | ICE Q2 2026 earnings | EPS $1.69 (+14%) | beat | Positive (fundamentals) | Stock fell ~2% — sell-the-news despite the beat |
| 2026-07-29 | FOMC decision / Fed Day | Hold, hawkish tone | — | Yields up, vol up | Worst Fed-Day for equities since Dec-2024; 30-Y spiked |
ICE is High-macro-sensitivity (Financials). The 31-Jul Core PCE and the 1-Aug tariff cluster can move both the rate path (financials multiples) and market volatility (ICE's transaction line) — but neither is a discrete, ICE-specific catalyst, so they do not reset the next-update schedule. The name-specific binary event (Q2 earnings) has just cleared, which is why the earnings gate is clear and the next update runs on the default +14-day cadence.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend | Bullish | 49.6 | +0.90 (hist −4.7, fading) | S: 113.9 R: 189.4 | Resistance | 1.31× |
| Weekly | Downtrend | Bearish | 52.6 | −5.31 (hist +0.7) | S: 143.2 R: 168.0 | Breakdown | 1.39× |
| Daily | Uptrend | Bullish | 74.0 (OB) | +4.09 (hist +2.2) | S: 137.8 R: 158.9 | Resistance | 1.86× |
| Hourly | Strong up | Bullish | 46.6 | +0.26 (hist −0.5) | S: 148.1 R: 158.6 | Resistance | 0.66× |
| 15-min | Weakening | Neutral | 45.1 | −0.44 | S: 151.1 R: 153.9 | Breakdown | 0.60× |
| Confluence: Bullish (stretched) · MTF Score 63 | |||||||
Higher-timeframe structure is constructive (monthly uptrend) and the daily has broken out — but the daily RSI of 74 is overbought, the weekly is still technically a downtrend, and intraday is weakening. This is a textbook ‘stretched after a sharp rally into resistance’ picture: the trend is up, the entry is not. Watch the 200-DMA ($154.76) as the pivot and $143–147 as the pullback-buy zone.
6-month daily close (29 Jan – 30 Jul 2026) with 50-day SMA (orange). The V-recovery off the 28-Jun 52-week low ($121.79) into the 200-DMA ($154.76); current $152.85.
Volatility stays elevated (energy/rate/FX) driving record futures & options volumes; the mortgage-tech recovery accelerates as origination normalises; FIDS re-accelerates. EPS compounds ~10%+ and the multiple re-rates toward the CME/peer ~23–24× forward. ~+37%.
ICE compounds net revenue mid-single-digit — recurring data +7–8%, a gradual mortgage recovery, steady buyback — and re-rates modestly toward ~22× forward as the Street's ~$178 consensus plays out over 6–12 months. The most probable path: a quality compounder doing what it does. ~+16%.
Volatility normalises and energy volumes keep sliding; higher-for-longer stalls the mortgage recovery; a Stagflation-lite de-rating compresses financials multiples toward ~16×. Retest of the 52-week low ($121.79). ~−21%. This is the live near-term risk if the four-week rally unwinds from overbought.
Probability-weighted fair value ≈ $174 (0.55×$178 + 0.25×$210 + 0.20×$120) — roughly +14% from $152.85, consistent with a Fair-valued quality compounder with modest upside and a real, overbought-driven near-term pullback risk. Weights sum to 100; Base is the most probable.
Forecast: Fundamental group is already met, so a half-size starter is live now. The Technical group needs RSI to cool from 74 into 35–65 — likely ~1–3 weeks on a pullback toward the rising 20-EMA / $143–147 weekly support, which is where the balance of the position is best added (tighter stop, reset momentum). Confidence: Moderate — the four-week rally is stretched, so a consolidation or shallow pullback is the base case. The Catalyst group is event-dependent on Q3 earnings (~late Oct).
Forecast: Stop at $137 is unlikely near-term (~10% below, under the 200-DMA $154.76 and the monthly support cluster) absent a broad financials de-rating or a volume-collapse quarter. The Profit-Target at $178 is achievable over 6–12 months if the re-rating plays out and volumes hold. Watch the driver line: a sustained volatility collapse is the most plausible route to a thesis flag.
Position sizing not computed — specify your portfolio allocation and role for sizing guidance.
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"ticker": "ICE",
"date": "2026-07-31",
"version": "v6",
"brand": "",
"company": "Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.",
"currency": "USD",
"exchange": "NYSE",
"exchange_ticker": "NYSE:ICE",
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"finder_exchange": "NYSE",
"analysis_status": "starting",
"status_badge": "Starting",
"sector": "Financials",
"gics_sector": "Financials (XLF)",
"lifecycle_stage": "mature / quality-compounder",
"user_context": {
"horizon": null,
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},
"price_at_rating": 152.85,
"signal_short": "BUY",
"signal_medium": "BUY",
"signal_long": "BUY",
"primary_signal": "BUY",
"short_entry_confirmed": false,
"short_hold_reason": "neutral_timing_starter",
"entry_conviction": "Half-Size",
"entry_groups_met": 1,
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"quality_score": 80,
"valuation_score": 63,
"timing_score": 49,
"driver_score": 64,
"econ_conviction": 52,
"overall_confidence": 50,
"quality_detail": {
"industry_benchmark_name": "Exchange/Data quality composite",
"industry_benchmark_score": 84,
"moat_score": 80,
"roic_percentile_vs_peers": 58,
"capital_allocation": 65,
"management_skin_in_game": 72
},
"valuation_detail": {
"fcf_yield": 2.9,
"implied_growth_rate": 7.5,
"consensus_growth_rate": 10.0,
"historical_valuation_decile": 4,
"forward_pe": 20.5,
"trailing_pe": 21.5,
"ev_ebitda": 15.1
},
"timing_detail": {
"mtf_confluence": 63,
"risk_reward_score": 32,
"relative_strength_vs_spy": -6.0,
"catalyst_clustering_score": 70,
"dynamic_macro_weight": 0.2,
"daily_rsi": 74
},
"warranted_multiple": 20.8,
"actual_multiple": 20.5,
"val_multiple_basis": "clean forward P/E (adj NTM EPS ~$7.45)",
"discount_rate_r": 0.09,
"risk_free_10y": 0.045,
"g_near": 0.075,
"g_term": 0.03,
"warranted_ratio": 0.99,
"val_band": "fair",
"driver_commodity_trend": "N/A - capital-light financial, not commodity-leveraged",
"econ_stance": "Neutral",
"econ_pressure": "Neutral",
"econ_source": "GICS sector -> XLF (macro 2026-07-30)",
"fair_value_est": 174,
"stop_loss": 137,
"target_price": 178,
"scenario_base_target": 178,
"scenario_bull_target": 210,
"scenario_bear_target": 120,
"scenario_probabilities": {
"bull": 25,
"base": 55,
"bear": 20
},
"gates_triggered": [],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"hard_gate_state": "clear",
"next_update_date": "2026-08-14",
"next_check_date": "2026-08-14",
"next_update_basis": "default +14d (Q2 reported 30 Jul; next earnings ~late Oct - no impactful discrete event within the 14-day window)"
}
First-ever Donatien report on NYSE:ICE (analysis_status: starting). Wide-moat capital-light compounder, Fair-valued (~20.5× forward vs warranted 20.8×), Neutral timing (overbought into the 200-DMA), mild-tailwind driver (64, sub-amplification), Neutral macro (XLF N/N/N). Short is a half-size quality-starter (neutral_timing_starter): both medium and long are BUY, quality is high and valuation is not Expensive, so the framework takes a partial position now and adds the balance on a pullback into $143–147 rather than sitting out. No gates or Do-Not-Buy triggers fire.