Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) owns and runs a global network of regulated marketplaces — 13 exchanges and 6 clearing houses — spanning energy, agricultural, metals and financial futures and options, plus the New York Stock Exchange for equity listings. Its business splits three ways: Exchanges (trading, clearing and listings), Fixed Income & Data Services (recurring analytics, benchmarks, connectivity and CDS clearing), and ICE Mortgage Technology (the Ellie Mae + Black Knight origination and servicing platform for US home lenders). What sets it apart is a capital-light, network-effect model: open interest, clearing pools and embedded data feeds create switching costs that are very hard for a rival to dislodge, so a large share of revenue recurs whether volumes rise or fall. Think of it as a toll-booth on the plumbing of global markets — it earns fees on activity and data rather than taking market risk itself.
Lifecycle: Mature / Cash-Cow compounder. ICE is a capital-light exchange-and-data operator, not a balance-sheet lender — so it is scored on operating margin, ROIC, FCF and recurring-revenue mix, not on P/TBV, combined ratio or bank capital metrics. The economics are excellent: high-teens revenue growth is not the story; durable, toll-booth cash generation is.
| Metric | Value | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Operating margin (TTM) | ~41% | Exchange/data economics — very high |
| EBITDA margin (TTM) | ~51% | Toll-booth model |
| FCF (TTM) | ~$4.6B | FCF/OCF conversion ~91% |
| ROE (TTM) | ~13% | Solid for a capital-light financial |
| Recurring revenue | ~50%+ | Data, analytics, listings, mortgage subscriptions |
| Dividend | ~1.4% yield, ~29% payout | Well covered; growing |
Moat average ≈ 79 (wide). The moat is anchored in the two dimensions that erode slowest — network effects (liquidity begets liquidity) and switching costs (clearing + data lock-in).
| Rival | Arena | Share trajectory / erosion vector |
|---|---|---|
| CME Group | Rates/energy futures, clearing | Stable duopoly-ish; CME dominant in rates, ICE in energy (Brent). Little share bleed either way. |
| Cboe (CBOE) | Options, listings, data | Competes in equity/index options & data; ICE holds NYSE listing franchise. |
| Nasdaq (NDAQ) | Listings, market tech, data | Direct listings rival; Nasdaq pushing into fintech/tech — share broadly stable. |
| LSEG / Deutsche Börse | Data, clearing, listings (ex-US) | Global data/index competitors; regional, limited direct US overlap. |
| Mortgage: in-house LOS / legacy Black Knight rivals | Mortgage origination tech | The real erosion vector — large lenders can in-source; volume, not share, is the near-term drag (rate-suppressed originations). |
Net: the exchange/clearing/data moat is stable-to-widening; the vulnerable flank is Mortgage Technology, where the threat is cyclical volume (higher-for-longer rates) more than lost share. This feeds the §11 Bear and the §12 thesis-invalidation.
Primary lens: P/E (secondary EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, dividend). ICE is a capital-light compounder — valued on earnings power, not P/TBV. It carries negative tangible book (goodwill from Ellie Mae/Black Knight), which is exactly why P/TBV is meaningless here and a bank lens would be wrong.
| Multiple | Value | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Trailing adj. P/E (FY25 $6.92) | ~20.5× | Reasonable for the quality |
| Forward P/E (FY26 cons. $8.05) | ~17.6× | Below warranted |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | ~15× | In line with exchange peers |
| FCF yield | ~5.7% | Attractive for a compounder |
| Dividend yield | ~1.4% | Growing, well covered |
Implied-growth colour: at $141.76 on ~$8 forward EPS the market embeds roughly mid-single-digit durable growth — close to our disciplined 6% estimate, i.e. the price does not demand heroic growth. After the fall from the ~$189 high, the name has de-rated from Full toward Fair. Cross-checks: sector-median exchange P/E ~ high-teens/low-20s (in line); own-history — lower half of its 5-yr range post-pullback (supportive); PEG ~3 on the 6% disciplined g (rich on PEG, typical of low-growth quality compounders); analyst consensus target $184.5 (~30% above spot), 33 Buy / 3 Hold, 0 Sell. A Fair-band name is not STRONG-BUY-eligible.
ICE is not a clean volume beneficiary like CME — its three segments pull in different directions, and the distinctive call here is to net them honestly:
| Horizon | Net driver | Score / amplification |
|---|---|---|
| Short (0–4w) | Exchange volume/volatility firm; mortgage still weak | Fair — no amplification (Short is HOLD anyway) |
| Medium (1–6m) | Volume + recurring data tailwind > mortgage drag | Mild tailwind — but base signal is HOLD, so nothing to amplify |
| Long (6–18m) | Structural data/clearing growth; mortgage a call-option on eventual rate relief | Tailwind — but base signal is HOLD, so nothing to amplify |
Segment 1 — Exchanges (tailwind): futures/options volume and NYSE listings benefit from elevated activity and volatility; energy (Brent) franchise strong. Segment 2 — Fixed Income & Data (stable tailwind): recurring, subscription-like, resilient across cycles. Segment 3 — ICE Mortgage Technology (HEADWIND): higher-for-longer rates suppress US mortgage origination volume — the report's own macro data shows 30-yr mortgage 6.55% and pending home sales −5.4% MoM in June, so origination is soft. This is a volume drag on a recurring-plus-transactional segment, not lost share.
GICS Financials → XLF: Short Outperform / Medium Outperform / Long Neutral (macro 2026-07-14). Exchange-volume and data resilience are a tailwind for capital-light financials; the mortgage-tech rate headwind partially offsets it. Long fades to Neutral as the rate tailwind matures. Trend-following (aligned with the macro sector signal); conviction 70 reflects tailwind strength net of the mortgage offset.
Source: sector-map · Macro report 2026-07-14
ICE has fallen ~25% from its ~$189 high to $141.76, into the lower half of its 52-week range ($121.79–$189.35). The tape is mixed and, on the horizons that matter for a short entry, not confirmed:
| Timeframe | Trend | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend / resistance breakout | Long-term structure intact |
| Weekly | Downtrend | Below 20/50-wk EMAs |
| Daily | Below SMA50 ($142.4) & SMA200 ($155.7) | RSI 56 — neutral, no reclaim |
| Hourly / 15-min | Strong uptrend | Intraday bounce — noise, not confirmation |
Short-horizon technical-confirmation gate: a short-term BUY requires the Technical or Catalyst entry group MET. Here the daily is below both key moving averages, the weekly is a downtrend, and there is no positive catalyst in the window (earnings 30 Jul is a risk, not a met catalyst). The intraday “strong uptrend” is not a daily reclaim. short_entry_confirmed = false → Short capped at HOLD (“buy on confirmation”). Support ~$136–$137 then $131.5 / $129.8; the 50-DMA reclaim (~$142) then the 200-DMA (~$156) are the levels that would turn timing constructive. Medium/Long are unaffected by this cap.
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | ICE Q2 2026 earnings | High | EPS $1.86e | — | Yes | Primary catalyst; sets volume + mortgage trajectory |
| 2026-07-29/30 | FOMC decision | High | — | — | Yes | Rate path drives both the discount rate and mortgage-tech volume |
| late Jul | Core PCE / CPI | High | — | — | Yes | Inflation read feeds the rate path → mortgage cycle |
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Retail Sales MoM (Jun) | 0.2% | 0.2% | inline | Medium |
| 2026-07-16 | Pending Home Sales MoM (Jun) | −5.4% | −0.5% | big miss | Medium — confirms weak mortgage backdrop |
| 2026-07-15 | PPI MoM (Jun) | −0.3% | — | soft | High — disinflationary, mild rate-relief hint |
Q2 earnings (30 Jul) is the near-term pivot and coincides with FOMC/inflation data. Disinflationary PPI is a faint positive for the mortgage-tech call-option; June pending home sales −5.4% confirms originations are still soft. Volume/data segments remain the ballast.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend | Up | 45.7 | − | S 113.9 / R 140.4 | Resistance breakout | 0.69 |
| Weekly | Downtrend | Down | 43.5 | − | S 121.8 / R 164.4 | Support breakdown | 0.69 |
| Daily | Downtrend | Down | 56.5 | + | S 136.7 / R 142.5 | Below 50/200-DMA | 0.61 |
| Hourly | Strong uptrend | Up | 65.5 | + | S 135.5 / R 142.4 | Resistance breakout | 0.05 |
| 15-min | Strong uptrend | Up | 56.7 | − | S 139.2 / R 142.4 | Resistance breakout | 0.15 |
| Confluence: Mixed — constructive long-term, soft medium-term · MTF Score 45 | |||||||
The long-term (monthly) structure is intact and the intraday tape is bouncing, but the weekly and daily — the horizons that gate a short entry — are in downtrends below the 50- and 200-DMA. That is a name in a pullback, not a confirmed entry. A daily reclaim of ~$142 (50-DMA) on volume would be the first constructive signal; ~$156 (200-DMA) the second.
ICE has pulled back ~25% from ~$189 to $141.76, now testing the 50-DMA (~$142) from below with the 200-DMA (~$156) overhead. Illustrative recent closes.
50-DMA reclaimed, Q2 beats on exchange volume, and mortgage-tech stabilises (or rate relief arrives) — the name re-rates back toward its ~19.5× warranted multiple on rising EPS. Analyst consensus target $184.5 sits here.
Fair-value grind: quality compounder at ~18× forward, mid-single-digit EPS growth, mortgage a slow drag but not a break. Recovers toward the 200-DMA over 6–12m as volume/data carry the load.
Higher-for-longer deepens the mortgage-origination slump, exchange volumes normalise lower, and the ~3× leverage limits buyback support — the name revisits the 52-wk low ($121.8) and below. The mortgage-cycle risk in the Competitive/§12 block is the live one.
Forecast: Fundamental group is met, but the Decision Matrix reads High Quality + Fair (not Attractive) Valuation + Neutral Timing → HOLD across all three horizons — a watch-for-valuation-entry HOLD, not a sell. A BUY needs Timing to improve (≥55): a daily reclaim of ~$142 on volume or a confirmed higher-low off $136–$137 — which the 30 Jul earnings could trigger either way. Until then Medium/Long stay HOLD (watch for a better entry) and Short stays HOLD.
Forecast: No exit condition live at $141.76; stop is ~8% below spot. Deleveraging progress and the 30 Jul mortgage-volume read are the things to watch.
No risk budget was supplied, so position sizing is omitted. The Conviction Ladder (§12) sets relative size: Fundamental met (one path open → Half-Size), but the Decision-Matrix signal is HOLD across all horizons — a watch-for-valuation-entry HOLD. Wait for Timing to improve (a 50-DMA reclaim or a tested bounce off $136–$137) before building the position.
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"date": "2026-07-16",
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"driver_score": 55,
"lifecycle_stage": "mature-compounder",
"economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 70,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Tailwind",
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"macro_report_date": "2026-07-14",
"moat_score": 79,
"warranted_multiple": 19.5,
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"warranted_ratio": 0.97,
"val_band": "fair",
"val_multiple_basis": "adjusted diluted P/E (ex-BKI/Ellie Mae amortization; Q1'26 one-off non-op excluded)",
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"nonop_pct_of_net_income": 13,
"clean_pe": 19.0,
"clean_peg": 3.0,
"fcf_yield": 5.7,
"dividend_yield": 1.4,
"ev_ebitda": 15.0,
"competitive_share_trajectory": "stable-to-widening in exchanges/clearing/data; vulnerable flank is Mortgage Technology (cyclical volume, not lost share)",
"competitive_threat_level": "moderate",
"analyst_consensus_target": 184.5,
"analyst_target_high": 208,
"analyst_target_low": 163,
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 30.2,
"analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
"analyst_bullish_pct": 91.7,
"analyst_coverage_count": 36,
"fmp_rating": "B",
"fmp_overall_score": 3,
"overall_confidence": 68,
"scenario_base_target": 158,
"scenario_bull_target": 185,
"scenario_bear_target": 118,
"target_bear": 118,
"hard_gate_state": "caution",
"gates_triggered": [],
"gates_caution": [
"Leverage: ND/EBITDA ~3.0x from Black Knight (exchange/EBITDA basis; deleveraging)",
"Earnings-quality: Q1'26 ~$0.6B one-off non-op excluded; scored on adjusted basis"
],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"entry_groups_met": 1,
"entry_conviction": "Half-Size",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"short_entry_confirmed": false,
"short_cap_reason": "Fundamental-only; daily below 50/200-DMA and weekly downtrend, no met catalyst \u2014 Short capped at HOLD (buy on confirmation)",
"next_update_date": "2026-07-30",
"next_update_basis": "Q2 earnings 2026-07-30 (on the +14d cap; earnings-driven; high macro sensitivity via rate path)",
"analysis_status": "starting",
"finder_ticker": "ICE",
"finder_exchange": "\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 NYSE",
"user_horizon": null,
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}
NEW add (B4b bench promotion). Capital-light exchange/data compounder scored on P/E (guardrail 30×), NOT P/TBV. Quality 82 / Valuation 62 (Fair, warranted ratio 0.97) / Timing 42 / Driver 55 / Econ 70. HOLD across all three horizons per the Decision Matrix (High Quality + Fair — not Attractive — Valuation + Neutral Timing → HOLD, watch for valuation entry); Short also HOLD via the technical-confirmation cap (short_entry_confirmed=false). Leverage ~3× EBITDA = caution not triggered. Mortgage-tech rate headwind netted against the exchange-volume tailwind in the driver. Next update Q2 earnings 30 Jul.