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NYSE:IBN ICICI Bank Limited

ISIN: US45104G1040
FinancialsBanksIndia / EMADR
NYSE · Mumbai, India · ADR (1 ADS = 2 shares) · Banks (India) · CEO Sandeep Bakhshi Analysis Status: Starting
US-listed ADR in USD; underlying financials reported in INR. 1 ADS = 2 ordinary shares.
$29.49
+1.79%
3 Jul 2026 · Signal v6
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

ICICI Bank Limited

ICICI Bank is India's second-largest private-sector bank, a full-service lender headquartered in Mumbai with ~188,000 employees and a US-listed ADR. Its core business is taking low-cost retail and corporate deposits and lending them out — home, auto, personal, business and working-capital loans — across retail, wholesale, treasury and insurance segments, earning the spread (net interest margin) plus fee income. What sets it apart is a rare combination of scale, a best-in-class digital platform (the iMobile app), an industry-leading ~4.3% margin and the cleanest asset book among India's big banks (net NPA just 0.33%). For a reader: think of it as the best-run large bank in one of the world's fastest-growing major economies — a structural-growth compounder that happens to be a bank. One US ADR = two ordinary shares; the underlying financials are reported in Indian rupees.

HorizonSignalComposite ScoreConfidenceKey Driver
Short-term (1–3 mo)HOLD5060%extended near 52w resistance; at fair value
Medium-term (6–12 mo)HOLD5760%elite quality but fairly valued — accumulate on dips
Long-term (3–5 yr)BUY6663%India structural credit growth + best-in-class asset quality
Next update: 2026-07-24 — ICICI Q1 FY27 (Jun-qtr) earnings ~24 Jul 2026 + India credit/RBI data
Table of Contents
1Five-Pillar Scorecard2Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status3Pillar Detail: Business Quality4Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness5Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers6Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment7Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing8Economic Event Risk9Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis10Price Chart (6-Month Daily)11Scenario Summary12Entry / Exit Rules13Position Sizing Context14Calibration Snapshot15Data Sources & Methodology
1

Five-Pillar Scorecard

Five independent scores — each 0–100 with its own confidence. The three fundamental pillars (Quality / Valuation / Timing) set the base BUY/HOLD/SELL via the Decision Matrix; the two context pillars (Underlying Drivers, Economic Alignment) then amplify a BUY to STRONG BUY or a SELL to STRONG SELL when both corroborate.

Business Quality

85
excellent
conf 82%

Valuation Attractiveness

55
fair
conf 72%

Entry/Exit Timing

48
weak · extended
conf 62%

Underlying Drivers

72
tailwind
conf 68%

Economic Alignment

65
Trend-Following
conf 65%
2

Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status

Binary safety checks — any TRIGGERED gate is a hard cap regardless of the scores above; CAUTION gates are sizing notes.
✅
Gate 1 · Financial Distress
CLEAR — fortress capital: CET1 16.35%, total CAR 17.18%; NNPA 0.33%. No distress.
✅
Gate 2 · Earnings Event Risk
CLEAR — next earnings ~24 Jul 2026 (Q1 FY27), 21 days out (beyond the 7-day window).
⚠️
Gate 3 · Valuation Ceiling
CAUTION — ADR P/TBV ~2.85× is 1.14× warranted (Fair), but only ~5% below the 3.0× Banks auto-Expensive floor; NSE-local sits AT it. Does not fire, but watch.
✅
Gate 4 · Earnings Quality / Dilution
CLEAR — clean bank earnings, no non-operating mark-to-market inflation. FMP 'revenue' = gross interest income (trap avoided); scored on NII/ROE/NPA.
⚠️
Gate 5 · FX / EM Regulatory
CAUTION — INR depreciation drags USD ADR returns; RBI regulatory + broad EM risk-off are live bear factors (not a hard trigger).
Do-Not-Buy triggers: none fire. No leverage/rates trigger (fortress capital). Valuation-extreme does NOT fire — ratio 1.14× is well below the 1.40× line and the ADR is under the 3.0× Banks floor. Estimates are steady/rising (Q4 beat, all-Buy consensus). Two caution flags — valuation near the floor, and FX/EM risk — shape the HOLD/HOLD/BUY and the Wait entry rather than blocking the name. Hard-gate state: clear.
3

Pillar Detail: Business Quality

A deep dive into the Quality score: business economics, moat, ROIC and the industry benchmark.
Business Quality — Pillar Score
Best-executing large Indian bank — industry-leading NIM, ~17% ROE, cleanest book
85
conf 82%

ICICI Bank is a genuinely top-tier bank — India's second-largest private-sector lender. We score it on the banking lens (NII, ROE, ROA, NIM, asset quality, capital), never on industrial metrics. Critically, FMP's ₹846bn "revenue" is gross interest income and is deliberately ignored — interest is both revenue and cost for a bank. Q4 FY26 (Mar-2026) standalone PAT was ₹13,702cr, +8.5% YoY, on net revenue driven by an industry-leading margin.

MetricICICI (Q4 FY26)Bank benchmarkRead
Net Interest Margin4.32%>3.5% = strongIndustry-leading
Return on Equity~17%18%+ exceptional, 10–15% healthyStrong
Return on Assets~2.3% (standalone)>1.5% = strongElite
GNPA / NNPA1.40% / 0.33%NNPA <1% = strongRecord-low NNPA
Slippage ratio1.2% (from 1.5%)declining = healthyImproving
CET1 / Total CAR16.35% / 17.18%CET1 >12% = strongFortress capital
Loan growth YoY+15.8%vs system ~12%Gaining share
Cost-to-income~40% (est.)<50% = excellentEfficient

Industry Benchmark — ROE + Efficiency (Banks)

ROE ~17% (strong) with an estimated ~40% cost-to-income (excellent), on a sub-2% GNPA and a 0.33% NNPA book.
Benchmark score: 90/100. Peer context: HDFC ROE ~14–15% post-merger; SBI ~15%. ICICI leads the large private cohort on both returns and asset quality — profitable, efficient and clean at once.

Competitive Moat

Pricing Power

62
Low-cost CASA franchise supports loan pricing, but Indian lending is competitive

Network Effects

55
iMobile / InstaBIZ ecosystem = moderate engagement, not a true two-sided network

Switching Costs

72
Salary accounts, corporate/retail relationships, app lock-in — sticky, tempered by fintech payment migration

Cost Advantage

74
Scale + low-cost deposits + best-in-class digital efficiency (~40% cost/income)

Intangibles

78
Banking licence, trusted #2 private-bank brand, deep distribution

Moat average ≈ 68 — a durable, well-run franchise; the walls are solid rather than impregnable. The switching-cost score is derived from the Competitive Environment read below, not asserted.

Competitive Environment (share trajectory → moat inputs)

Named direct rivals: HDFC Bank (India's largest private bank; superior liability franchise but digesting the HDFC Ltd merger, ROE dragged to ~14–15%), State Bank of India (largest lender by assets; PSU scale but lower ROE and a governance discount), Axis Bank (3rd private; trades at a discount — "needs to prove its franchise" per Kotak Institutional), Kotak Mahindra (premium multiple, leadership transition), plus UPI / fintech (PhonePe, Google Pay, Paytm) which dominate the payments rail but not deposits or credit.

Share trajectory: ICICI is gaining share among large private banks with the cleanest book (NNPA 0.33%) and best returns (~17% ROE) of the cohort; iMobile is its best-in-class defence against fintech payment leakage. Erosion vector: a HDFC post-merger recovery, or fintech-led encroachment into consumer lending, could pressure the retail/digital edge. Propagated to the §11 Bear and §12 thesis-invalidation. Threat level: moderate.

ROIC & Capital Allocation

ComponentReadingScore
Returns vs peersROE ~17% / ROA ~2.3% — top of the large-bank cohort; FMP ROE score 4/584
Capital-allocation disciplineLow payout (~15%) retains capital to fund 15%+ book compounding; fortress CET1 16.35%80
Management (CEO Sandeep Bakhshi)Consistent, conservative underwriting; the asset-quality turnaround since 2018 is his track record78

Business Quality: 85 / 100 (Excellent), confidence 82%. The best-executing large Indian bank of the cycle — the debate here is price and near-term entry, not business quality.

4

Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness

Sector-appropriate multiples, FCF yield, reverse-DCF implied growth, embedded optionality, and the analyst-consensus cross-check.
Valuation Attractiveness — Pillar Score
Fair — P/TBV ~2.85× vs 2.5× warranted (ratio 1.14); quality earned, no margin of safety
55
conf 72%

Banks are valued on Price / Tangible Book anchored to ROE — never on P/E-as-primary, FCF or EV/EBITDA. The warranted anchor is the justified P/TBV = (ROE − g) / (r − g). The stock has recovered ~15% off its April low back to the top of its range, so the question is: after the run, is it cheap, fair, or full?

THE ANCHOR — Warranted P/TBV

InputValueBasis
ROE17%Reported standalone (INR-book; kept as an approximation — see basis note below)
Discount rate r≈ 11.0%UST10Y 4.48% + fixed 4.5% ERP + 2.0% India/EM add-on (which also partly bridges the INR→USD basis)
Growth g7.0%A flagged premium to the SKILL 6% defensive/bank g-cap — justified by +15.8% loan growth and India's structural nominal-GDP ("proven durable grower" carve-out)
Warranted P/TBV2.5×(0.17 − 0.07) / (0.11 − 0.07) = 2.5×
Actual P/TBV (ADR)≈ 2.85×P/B 2.78 × (BVPS 530 / TBVPS 516); NSE-local sits ~3.0×
actual ÷ warranted≈ 1.14→ FAIR band (1.00–1.20)

Band = FAIR — quality earned, no margin of safety

At 2.85× TBV vs a 2.5× warranted, ICICI is fairly-to-fully valued. Sensitivity (the g-lever): at g=6% (the raw bank cap) warranted falls to 2.2× → ratio 1.27 (Full); at g=8% it rises to 2.9× → ratio ~0.98 (Attractive/Fair edge). The call is genuinely g-sensitive; the midpoint is Fair.

Guardrail-floor watch

The Banks floor is P/TBV ≥ 3.0× = auto-Expensive regardless of the ratio. The ADR at ~2.85× is just under it; the NSE-local listing at ~3.0× is at it. A further ~5% ADR re-rating trips the floor and forces HOLD on valuation alone — a live risk to monitor (this is why the Valuation-Extreme gate carries a caution).

Relative cross-checks (order within the Fair band)

LensReadingRead
Forward P/E15.4×Just under the 16× bank line — Fair
Trailing P/E18.7×Fair for the quality
PEG (fwd)0.52Cheap on growth
Dividend yield (ADR)0.84%Low payout (~15%) — retention funds 15%+ book compounding
Analyst consensus PT$35.4 (4 analysts, all Buy)Street sees upside (lower discount than our anchor)

Implied-growth read: at $29.49 on an 11% discount rate the price embeds roughly the disciplined ~7% USD book-growth we assume — neither a collapse nor heroics. FCF yield is N/A for a bank; dividend + book-value growth is the cash-return anchor. Fair value ≈ $26 spot (warranted 2.5× on current ~$10.5/ADR TBV); ≈ $31 on a 12-month forward basis (book compounds ~10% in USD). Valuation: 55 / 100 (Fair), confidence 72%.

5

Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers

The dominant external force the stock is tethered to, scored 0–100. A context pillar: it does not change the base signal — it feeds amplification (tailwind ≥65 can lift BUY→STRONG BUY; headwind ≤35 can push SELL→STRONG SELL).
Primary Driver
India credit/GDP cycle + banking-sector health
72
Tailwind

Primary driver: India's credit / GDP cycle plus banking-sector health (NIM, asset quality) — not a US sector map and not a commodity. India nominal GDP compounds ~10–11%; system credit growth has recovered to ~12% and outpaces deposits; the RBI's 125bp 2025 cutting cycle is likely done, so NIMs are troughing and set to drift up as deposit costs reprice lower. Asset quality is benign. Liquidity is the one system-level watch-item for 2026.

HorizonReadScoreBasis
Short (0–4wk)Neutral58Credit growth steady ~12%, RBI on hold, no near-term catalyst before the Q1 print.
Medium (1–6m)Mild Tailwind70NIMs troughing → rising as deposit costs reprice; a solid Q1 FY27 print likely; system liquidity the watch-item.
Long (6–18m)Strong Tailwind76India structural credit/GDP growth, under-penetrated credit, ICICI share gains + digital execution.

Amplification — one notch, not two

Headline driver 72 (Tailwind) and the Economic long-horizon pressure is a Tailwind (EM Equities Long = Outperform), so the base Long BUY is reinforced. But the driver is a "Tailwind," not a "Strong Tailwind" (which would be 80+), and with a merely Fair valuation and an extended entry, we do not lift Long to STRONG BUY — you don't back the truck up on a fairly-priced name at the top of its range. Near-term the driver is Neutral, so there is no short amplification.

Underlying Drivers: 72 / 100 (Tailwind), confidence 68%.

6

Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment

How the current economic climate sits relative to this stock, read from the latest Macro-Economic report. Classifies the macro pressure (Tailwind / Neutral / Headwind) — the second amplification input — and frames a long entry as Trend-Following or Contrarian with a 0–100 conviction.
Stance · Pressure
Trend-Following · Neutral near-term / Tailwind long
65
conviction

Finder section "EM Equities" → macro EM Equities asset-class signal = Short N / Medium N / Long O. So the economy is Neutral near-term and a mild Tailwind long. Stance = Trend-Following (India's structural-growth story supports the long-horizon Outperform); conviction moderate (65). ICICI is NOT in the AI cohort — no AI tail. The genuine driver is India's own credit/GDP cycle, layered on this US-derived sector map (macro 2026-07-03: Regime Contested — Soft-Landing/Stagflation co-lead 30/30, UST10Y 4.48%, VIX 16.6 risk-on).

Source: sector-map · Macro report 2026-07-03

7

Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing

The risk-reward framework, relative strength vs SPY and the sector ETF, the macro overlay, news-derived sentiment, and the catalyst cluster.
Entry/Exit Timing — Pillar Score
Extended — RSI 69 into $29.6 resistance, price back at fair value; wait for a pullback
48
conf 62%

A high-quality bank at an extended entry. The ADR has recovered ~15% off its early-April $25.6 low back to the top of its range and just cleared the 200-DMA ($29.16) — constructive structure, but momentum is now hot and price is pressing resistance.

SignalReadingRead
Daily trendUptrend; $29.49 > SMA50 $26.98 > SMA200 $29.16Constructive
Daily RSI69.3Near overbought (>65)
Weekly trendDowntrend flattening; below SMA50 $29.72, MACD signal still negativeMixed
Monthly trendUptrend, resistance breakoutBullish structure
MTF confluenceBearish (weekly/15-min down vs daily/monthly up)Conflicted
Resistance / 52w high$29.6 shelf, then $34.57Pressing resistance

Entry/Exit Timing: 48 / 100 (Weak / extended), confidence 62%. Fundamentals point up, but the entry is poor: RSI 69 into the $29.6 shelf, price back at fair value with no margin of safety. The disciplined move is to wait for a pullback into ~$26–27 (the warranted band / SMA50) rather than chase the top of the range — which is exactly what holds the short leg at HOLD and the entry ladder at Wait.

8

Economic Event Risk

High-impact macro releases in the next 14 days that could swing this stock, plus the last 7 days of surprises.

Upcoming events (next 30 days)

DateEventImpactForecastPreviousRelevant?Why
~24 Jul 2026ICICI Q1 FY27 earningsHighPAT ~₹13–14k cr₹13,702cr (Q4)YesNIM trajectory + credit growth + slippages — the core catalyst; the report reschedules to it
Aug 2026US CPI / FOMCMedium——IndirectSets UST10Y (the r input) and global EM risk appetite
OngoingIndia system credit / RBIMedium~12%12%YesLiquidity is the 2026 watch-item for Indian banks

Recent surprises (last 7 days)

DateEventActualForecastSurpriseImpact
21 Apr 2026Q4 FY26 resultsPAT ₹13,702cr (+8.5%)beat+Positive
Q4 FY26Asset qualityNNPA 0.33% (record low)improve+Positive
2025RBI rate cuts−125bp cumulativeas expected0Neutral (NIM trough)

IBN is an India-macro name, not a US-sector-map name — its decisive event is the ~24 Jul Q1 FY27 print (the next update reschedules to it). US CPI/FOMC set the discount rate and EM risk backdrop.

9

Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis

Trend, RSI and breakout status across monthly / weekly / daily / hourly / 15-minute, with a confluence verdict.
TimeframeTrendDirectionRSIMACDKey S/RBreakoutVol
MonthlyUptrend▲53.0hist −0.60S 20.3 / R 34.6resistance_breakout0.16×
WeeklyDowntrend▼56.4hist +0.45 turningS 25.1 / R 34.1resistance_breakout0.85×
DailyUptrend▲69.3+0.12S 25.2 / R 29.6resistance_breakout0.68×
HourlyWeakening▶49.5flatS 28.7 / R 29.6——
15-minDowntrend▼44.6−0.003S 28.9 / R 29.5——
Confluence: Bearish (near-term) over a constructive higher-timeframe structure · MTF Score 48

The higher timeframes (monthly, daily) are constructive and price cleared the SMA200, but the weekly is still a downtrend flattening out and the intraday frames are fading — a classic 'good business, extended entry.' The split — extended short-term (RSI 69) into resistance inside a healthy longer structure — is exactly why Short is HOLD while Long is BUY, and why the entry ladder reads Wait.

10

Price Chart (6-Month Daily)

A 6-month daily close line with SMA50 and key support/resistance — the visual companion to the MTF table.

IBN daily (May–Jul 2026): recovered ~15% off the April $25.6 low to the top of range; RSI 69 near-term extended into the $29.6 resistance shelf, still shy of the $34.57 52-week high.

11

Scenario Summary

Bull / Base / Bear 12-month price paths with triggers and probability weights.

Bull $37 (25%)

Credit up-cycle + NIM expansion as deposit costs reprice + stable INR drive a re-rating to ~3.0× TBV on a growing book. Matches the Street high ($37). ~+25% from $29.49.

Base $31 (50%)

Steady ~15% loan growth, ~17% ROE, NNPA stable; USD book compounds ~10% and the ADR holds ~2.6× forward TBV. ~+5%. Fair-value convergence, not a re-rating.

Bear $24 (25%)

EM risk-off / a sharp INR depreciation / NIM compression / an asset-quality scare de-rates the ADR to ~2.1× TBV. Below the 52-week low — stop territory. ~−19%.

Probability-weighted fair value ≈ 0.25×37 + 0.50×31 + 0.25×24 ≈ $30.75 — essentially the spot $29.49. The risk/reward is balanced right here, which is exactly why the near-term call is HOLD and the entry discipline is Wait; the positive skew is a long-horizon, structural-India bet, not a here-and-now edge.

12

Entry / Exit Rules

Three independent entry paths (Fundamental · Technical · Catalyst) and three exit triggers (Stop-Loss · Thesis · Profit-Target). Any one entry path is a valid entry — the more that agree, the larger the position the conviction ladder suggests. Exits are graded by severity, not count.

How to read this — the Conviction Ladder

The three entry groups are alternative paths to a buy, not a checklist. A group counts only when all its sub-conditions hold. How many groups are satisfied sets the suggested size — it does not gate whether you may enter: 1 group = Half-Size (a valid starter/scale-in), 2 = Full-Size, 3 = Over-Size (highest conviction); 0 = Wait (no path open yet). A strong overall signal can still read Wait here when the stock is well above its entry zones — that flags "good business, no entry edge right now," not a contradiction. Exits are graded by severity of what is live, not by a count: a hard stop is an Exit on its own.
Entry conviction: Wait0 of 3 groups met — no entry path open

Fundamental — not MET

Quality is elite and the driver is live, but the price sits ABOVE the warranted spot fair value — no margin of safety.
⛔ Price $29.49 ≤ warranted spot fair value ~$26
✅ Underlying-Driver score ≥ 50 (72)
✅ No earnings within 7 days (next ~24 Jul)

Technical — not MET

Daily is above the SMA50/200 but RSI is hot and price is pressing the $29.6 shelf — not a clean entry.
✅ Daily close > SMA50 ($26.98)
⛔ Daily RSI 35–65 (currently 69.3 — overbought)
⛔ OR a tested pullback to $26–27 support with a higher low

Catalyst — not MET

The Q1 FY27 print (~24 Jul) is pending, not yet a confirmed post-earnings move.
· Post-Q1 beat with NIM up + credit growth held, move > +5%

Forecast: 0/3 groups met → Wait. FORECAST: the Fundamental group turns met on a pullback into the ~$26–27 warranted band (price ~$3 above it, ~10% away); the Technical group resets when the daily RSI cools below 65 on a consolidation or a dip to the rising 50-DMA (~$27); the Catalyst group could fire on a strong ~24 Jul Q1 print that holds >+5%. Any ONE of these opens a Half-Size entry. BASIS: price is extended (RSI 69) at the top of range with a still-negative weekly MACD signal, so patience is favoured over chasing.

Exit action: Holdno exit trigger is live — hold the position

Stop-Loss — not LIVE

⛔ Two daily closes below $24.80 (below the 52-week low $25.08) — not live; price ~19% above

Thesis Invalidation — not LIVE

⛔ Asset-quality break: GNPA > 2.5% or NNPA > 1.0%
⛔ OR ROE sustained below 13%
⛔ OR India system credit growth stalls below 8%
⛔ OR ICICI cedes retail/digital share to a HDFC recovery or fintech lending (the §3 competitive vector going live)

Profit-Target — not LIVE

⛔ Price into $37 (bull / Street high) with RSI > 70

Forecast: No live exit (0 groups). Price is ~19% above the $24.80 stop and above a rising 50-DMA; a stop is unlikely absent an EM risk-off shock or an asset-quality surprise. The Q1 print (~24 Jul) is the one to watch for thesis-invalidation (a NIM/asset-quality miss).

Imagine you act at the current price of $29.49 · as of 3 Jul 2026

What if you bought now?

You'd be risking ~16% to the $24.80 stop (−19% to the $24 bear) to gain ~5% to the $31 base (+25% to the $37 bull).
  • Risking: downside to the $24.80 stop; you're buying at the top of the range, RSI 69, back at fair value with NO margin of safety — the Technical and Fundamental entry paths are NOT yet met.
  • Gaining: a best-in-class bank compounding book ~15%/yr; a structural long-horizon India tailwind; and re-rating optionality toward the Street's $37. But the asymmetry here is only fair.

What if you sold now?

Not a name to be short — elite fundamentals and a structural long tailwind. HOLD, don't sell.
  • Giving up: ~15%/yr book compounding and the long-horizon India bet if you exit an already-owned position.
  • Protecting: only against a near-term pullback from an extended level — a timing trim, not a thesis exit. No exit rule is currently live.
13

Position Sizing Context

Illustrative portfolio math (not advice) translating conviction into an allocation given risk-per-share and volatility.

Position sizing not computed — no allocation or portfolio role was specified for this run. The §12 Conviction Ladder reads Wait (0 of 3 entry paths open): the name is fairly valued at an extended, top-of-range entry. Specify your intended allocation and role for a sized recommendation once an entry path opens (a pullback to ~$26–27, an RSI reset, or a strong Q1 print).

14

Calibration Snapshot

Machine-readable snapshot of every score, level and signal, saved alongside the HTML so the next run can compute deltas.
{
  "ticker": "IBN",
  "date": "2026-07-03",
  "version": "v6",
  "analysis_status": "on-going",
  "status_badge": "Starting",
  "exchange": "NYSE",
  "exchange_ticker": "NYSE:IBN",
  "isin": "US45104G1040",
  "api_ticker": "IBN",
  "company": "ICICI Bank Limited",
  "finder_ticker": "IBN",
  "finder_exchange": "\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 NYSE",
  "finder_section": "EM Equities",
  "user_horizon": null,
  "user_allocation_pct": null,
  "portfolio_role": null,
  "sizing_html": "not computed",
  "sector": "Financials \u2014 Banks (Regional / India)",
  "lifecycle_stage": "mature",
  "price_at_rating": 29.49,
  "signal_short": "HOLD",
  "signal_medium": "HOLD",
  "signal_long": "BUY",
  "primary_signal": "HOLD",
  "score_short": 50,
  "score_medium": 57,
  "score_long": 66,
  "quality_score": 85,
  "quality_detail": {
    "industry_benchmark_name": "ROE + Efficiency (Banks)",
    "industry_benchmark_value": "ROE ~17% / C-I ~40%",
    "industry_benchmark_score": 90,
    "moat_score": 68,
    "nim": 4.32,
    "roa": 2.3,
    "gnpa": 1.4,
    "nnpa": 0.33,
    "cet1": 16.35,
    "loan_growth_yoy": 15.8,
    "cost_income_est": 40
  },
  "valuation_score": 55,
  "valuation_detail": {
    "val_multiple_basis": "justified P/TBV = (ROE - g)/(r - g)",
    "warranted_multiple": 2.5,
    "actual_multiple": 2.85,
    "warranted_ratio": 1.14,
    "val_band": "fair",
    "discount_rate_r": 11.0,
    "risk_free_10y": 4.48,
    "erp": 4.5,
    "india_em_premium": 2.0,
    "g_near": 7.0,
    "g_term": 3.0,
    "roe_input": 17.0,
    "ptbv_adr": 2.85,
    "ptbv_nse_local": 3.0,
    "fwd_pe": 15.4,
    "trailing_pe": 18.7,
    "peg": 0.52,
    "div_yield_adr": 0.84,
    "fcf_yield": "N/A (bank)",
    "guardrail_floor": "Banks P/TBV >= 3.0x = auto-Expensive; ADR 2.85x just under, NSE-local ~3.0x at floor",
    "sensitivity": "g=6% -> 2.2x (Full, 1.27); g=8% -> 2.9x (Attractive/Fair edge, 0.98)"
  },
  "nonop_pct_of_net_income": 0,
  "clean_pe": 15.4,
  "clean_peg": 0.52,
  "timing_score": 48,
  "timing_detail": {
    "mtf_confluence": "bearish",
    "confluence_score": 48,
    "daily_rsi": 69.3,
    "price_vs_sma200": "above (29.49 > 29.16)",
    "relative_position": "near 52w resistance $29.6 / high $34.57"
  },
  "driver_score": 72,
  "driver_name": "India credit/GDP cycle + banking-sector health",
  "driver_per_horizon": {
    "short": "Neutral",
    "medium": "Mild Tailwind",
    "long": "Strong Tailwind"
  },
  "competitive_rivals": [
    "HDFC Bank",
    "State Bank of India",
    "Axis Bank",
    "Kotak Mahindra",
    "UPI/fintech (PhonePe, Google Pay, Paytm)"
  ],
  "competitive_share_trajectory": "gaining",
  "competitive_threat_level": "moderate",
  "economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
  "economic_alignment_conviction": 65,
  "economic_alignment_pressure": "Neutral near-term / Tailwind long",
  "economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
  "macro_report_date": "2026-07-03",
  "economic_alignment_signal": "EM Equities asset-class: Short N / Medium N / Long O",
  "overall_confidence": 62,
  "fair_value_est": 26.0,
  "fair_value_forward_12m": 31.0,
  "prob_weighted_fair_value": 30.75,
  "stop_loss": 24.8,
  "target_price": 35.25,
  "scenario_base_target": 31,
  "scenario_bull_target": 37,
  "scenario_bear_target": 24,
  "analyst_consensus_target": 35.375,
  "analyst_target_high": 37,
  "analyst_target_low": 34,
  "analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
  "analyst_bullish_pct": 100,
  "analyst_coverage_count": 6,
  "fmp_rating": "B+",
  "fmp_overall_score": 3,
  "recent_upgrades_30d": 0,
  "recent_downgrades_30d": 0,
  "hard_gate_state": "clear (2 cautions: valuation-near-floor, FX/EM)",
  "gates_triggered": [],
  "do_not_buy_triggers": [],
  "entry_groups_met": 0,
  "entry_conviction": "Wait",
  "exit_groups_live": 0,
  "exit_action": "Hold",
  "next_update_date": "2026-07-24",
  "next_update_basis": "ICICI Q1 FY27 (Jun-qtr) earnings ~24 Jul 2026 + India credit/RBI data",
  "data_basis_note": "BANK TRAP honoured: FMP 'revenue' (INR 846bn Q4 FY26) = GROSS interest income, NOT used as revenue. Scored on NII/ROE/ROA/NIM/GNPA-NNPA/CET1/P-TBV. FMP net income CONSOLIDATED (INR 14,755cr, incl insurance subs) vs standalone PAT INR 13,702cr (+8.5% YoY).",
  "inr_usd_basis_note": "r built off UST10Y 4.48% per instruction + fixed 4.5% ERP + 2.0% India/EM add-on (the add-on partly bridges the INR->USD basis, since ROE is an INR-book figure). ROE kept at reported ~17% (ratio broadly currency-neutral). g_near 7% is a FLAGGED premium to the 6% bank cap, justified by 15.8% loan growth + India structural nominal GDP.",
  "currency_note": "US-listed ADR (1 ADS = 2 ordinary shares); financials reported in INR."
}

First report on NYSE:IBN — NEW coverage, promoted by the Stock-Finder to fill the EM Equities × US grid cell (analysis_status on-going, badge "Starting"; not a Donatien Pick). No prior calibration, so no "Changes Since Last Report" delta. Baseline: HOLD (short) / HOLD (medium) / BUY (long); five pillars 85 / 55 / 48 / 72 / 65; no hard gate triggered (two cautions: valuation-near-floor, FX/EM); entry ladder Wait; next update reschedules to the ~24 Jul Q1 FY27 print.

15

Data Sources & Methodology

Audit trail of every data source: fully available (✓), fallback (⚠), or failed (✗), plus provenance-based confidence haircuts.
Data Source Status
✓
get_company_profile / get_yahoo_quote Price $29.49, beta 0.25, mkt cap ~$106B; ADR & ISIN US45104G1040 confirmed
✓
get_financial_ratios P/B 2.78, ROE 16.4%, fwd P/E 15.4, PEG 0.52 — bank-lens metrics used, industrial ones ignored
✓
get_income_statement (6q) INR, CONSOLIDATED — 'revenue' = gross interest income (BANK TRAP avoided); NII used; consolidated NI ₹14,755cr vs standalone ₹13,702cr
✓
get_multi_timeframe_analysis 5 timeframes; RSI 69.3 daily, confluence bearish; SMA200 $29.16
✓
get_price_target_consensus / grades PT high $37 / median $35.25 / consensus $35.4 (4 analysts); grades 6 Buy / 0 Hold / 0 Sell
⚠
get_stock_grades Newest firm action 2020 (BofA Buy) — stale; used only as long-run context
✓
get_analyst_estimates Revenue/EPS out to FY30; forward growth confirms the low-15% disciplined g
✓
get_stock_prices (3mo daily) 64 bars → 28 recent closes + a SMA50 proxy for the chart; April low $25.6
✓
get_ratings_snapshot FMP rating B+; ROE 4/5, but P/E & P/B 2/5 (rich-ish) — consistent with the Fair band
⚠
get_polygon_news Thin IBN-specific flow; a UK EM fund holds IBN as its top position (19.8% AUM) = institutional conviction
✗
get_earnings_calendar MCP returned empty; next earnings ~24 Jul 2026 derived from the Q4 filing cadence + web
✓
WebSearch (Q4 FY26, peers, India outlook) NIM 4.32%, NNPA 0.33%, CET1 16.35%, loan +15.8%; peer P/BV; India banking outlook (credit ~12%, RBI done, NIMs stabilizing)
Impact on scores: High confidence on fundamentals and valuation (MCP + primary web corroboration on the Q4 print). Cost-to-income (~40%) is estimated (not in the pulled data), and the exact ADR-vs-NSE-local P/TBV split is approximate — both flagged. The earnings-calendar (empty) and firm-grades (stale) feeds were the only weak sources; neither is load-bearing. No confidence haircut applied.
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.