Changes Since Last Report
vs. previous report dated 4 Aug 2026 ($132.03). Price $130.86 (−0.9%). This is the post-earnings refresh. Q2 2026 (reported 4 Aug): base-business revenue growth +10.2% YoY to $7.80bn — a beat, and the strongest Q2 base-business growth in three years, with Yeztugo PrEP topping $1bn and HIV growth guidance raised to ~10%. Reported GAAP EPS −$8.45 (non-GAAP −$6.75) reflects an $11.2bn acquired-IPR&D charge (Arcellx, Tubulis, Ouro); illustrative EPS ex-acquisitions was $2.27, with FY26 illustrative EPS guided up to $8.50-8.85 — the clean run-rate is intact, so we score on it, not the GAAP loss.
- No signal changes this cycle. Short HOLD = · Medium BUY = · Long STRONG BUY =
- Driver held at 66 (Tailwind) =. The Q2 print was a positive beat-and-raise, so there is no fresh negative to ease it; it stays above the ≥65 amplification bar, so the Long BUY continues to amplify to STRONG BUY under the defensive Health-Care Long-Outperform pressure. The Trodelvy–Keytruda Phase III scrap dates to 8 June 2026 (before the last report) — an already-known pipeline setback, not a new catalyst.
- Hard gate: Earnings-Event gate CLEARED (Q2 reported; next 29 Oct) → hard-gate state caution → clear; timing confidence 40 → 55; overall confidence 42 → 55
- Entry ladder: Wait (0/3) → Half-Size (1/3) — the Fundamental group re-opened once the 7-day earnings blackout passed; Short reason gate → technical_pending
- Scores: Quality 74 → 73 ($11.2bn unproven M&A) · Valuation 70 = · Timing 61 → 57 (slipped below 200-DMA post-print) · Driver 66 =
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Gilead Sciences, Inc.
Gilead Sciences is a large-cap American biopharmaceutical company built on one of the most durable franchises in medicine: HIV. Its flagship Biktarvy is the world's most-prescribed HIV regimen, and the wider HIV portfolio (Descovy, plus the twice-yearly PrEP injectable lenacapavir, branded Yeztugo) throws off the bulk of the group's ~$30bn of annual revenue at ~80% gross margins. Beyond HIV, Gilead runs a declining-but-cash-rich hepatitis-C business, a liver-disease franchise (Livdelzi/seladelpar, Vemlidy), and an oncology/cell-therapy arm assembled through deals — Kite (Yescarta, Tecartus CAR-T), Immunomedics (the Trodelvy antibody-drug conjugate) and, in mid-2026, three new pipeline acquisitions (Arcellx, Tubulis and Ouro Medicines). What sets Gilead apart is the combination of a patent-protected, high-margin HIV annuity with no major loss-of-exclusivity until Biktarvy in 2036, funding a dividend it has raised for 11 straight years while it tries to diversify into oncology and immunology. For a non-expert: think of it as a cash-machine HIV company using that cash to buy its way into cancer and other diseases.
| Horizon | Signal | Composite Score | Confidence | Key Driver |
|---|
| Short-term (1–3 mo) | HOLD | 54 | 55% | Cheap + quality, but tape unconfirmed post-print — buy on confirmation |
| Medium-term (6–12 mo) | BUY | 66 | 60% | Cheap + high-quality; macro Neutral so no amplification |
| Long-term (3–5 yr) | STRONG BUY | 70 | 62% | Quality compounder + defensive Long tailwind (Health-Care Outperform); driver 66 (≥65) amplifies BUY→STRONG BUY |
Next update: 2026-08-21 — default +14d (Q2 reported 4 Aug; next earnings 2026-10-29 is beyond the 14-day window)
1
Five-Pillar Scorecard
Five independent scores — each 0–100 with its own confidence. The three fundamental pillars (Quality / Valuation / Timing) set the base BUY/HOLD/SELL via the Decision Matrix; the two context pillars (Underlying Drivers, Economic Alignment) then amplify a BUY to STRONG BUY or a SELL to STRONG SELL when both corroborate.
Business Quality
73
strong
conf 75%
Valuation Attractiveness
70
attractive
conf 78%
Entry/Exit Timing
57
neutral
conf 55%
Underlying Drivers
64
Neutral (near-Tailwind)
conf 60%
Economic Alignment
55
Neutral (Med) · Tailwind (Long)
conf 55%
2
Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status
Binary safety checks — any TRIGGERED gate is a hard cap regardless of the scores above; CAUTION gates are sizing notes.
✅Financial Distress
Net debt ~$23bn on ~$12bn illustrative annual FCF (net debt/clean-EBITDA ~1.8x); investment-grade; current ratio 1.14 — clear. (Trailing GAAP interest-cover reads negative only because the Q2 IPR&D charge turned TTM operating income negative — a non-cash accounting artefact, not a liquidity problem.)
✅Earnings Event Risk
CLEARED — Q2 2026 reported 4 Aug (after close). Next earnings 29 Oct 2026, well beyond the 14-day window.
✅Valuation Ceiling
Attractive band (ratio 0.70), forward P/E ~13.6× < 22× Health-Care guardrail — clear. Anchor is computed on clean/illustrative earnings, not the GAAP loss.
✅Accounting / Dilution
The $11.2bn Q2 charge is acquired-IPR&D that DEPRESSES GAAP (a non-recurring expense), not the inflated-earnings distortion Gate 4 targets — and we score on clean/illustrative EPS ($2.27 Q2), so no cap. Share count shrinking (~1,243m); SBC modest — clear.
✅Regulatory / Binary Event
No single pending FDA binary >20% mover; Yeztugo already approved and launching — clear.
✅Severe Driver Collapse
Driver 64 (Neutral) — far above the ≤15 collapse floor.
Do-Not-Buy triggers: none fired. Note (not a trigger): FY2026 GAAP/non-GAAP loss guidance was widened by the $11.2bn acquired-IPR&D charge (Arcellx, Tubulis, Ouro) — but the illustrative EPS ex-acquisitions was guided UP to $8.50-8.85 and HIV growth raised to ~10%, so this is not the 3-consecutive-months-of-downward-EPS-revisions pattern Trigger 3 requires. The Trodelvy–Keytruda Phase III was scrapped on 8 June 2026 (already known before the prior report — not fresh news) — a standing pipeline setback reflected in the Driver, not an existential (Trigger 5) threat.
3
Pillar Detail: Business Quality
A deep dive into the Quality score: business economics, moat, ROIC and the industry benchmark.
Business Quality — Pillar Score
High-margin HIV annuity, fortress balance sheet, no cliff to 2036; oncology and now three fresh acquisitions still unproven.
Business Quality — Pillar Score
A high-margin, cash-generative HIV annuity with a fortress balance sheet — and, in Q2, its strongest base-business growth in three years. Dragged only by a lumpy, expensive acquisition track record (now enlarged by three mid-2026 deals) and an oncology arm that has not yet proven it can create value.
73
Confidence 75% · mature-pharma lens
Q2 2026 print (reported 4 Aug) — read the base business, not the GAAP loss
Revenue $7.80bn, with base-business growth +10.2% YoY (ex-one-offs) — a beat, and management called it the strongest second-quarter base-business growth in three years. HIV led (Biktarvy plus Yeztugo/lenacapavir PrEP topping $1bn with ~70% persistence); Trodelvy also grew. The reported GAAP EPS of −$8.45 (and non-GAAP −$6.75) is entirely an accounting event: an $11.2bn acquired-IPR&D charge from three deals (Arcellx CAR-T, Tubulis ADCs, Ouro Medicines immunology) expensed on close. Illustrative EPS excluding those effects was $2.27 for the quarter, and full-year illustrative EPS was guided up to $8.50-8.85. We score Quality and Valuation on that clean run-rate — the loss is a one-off pipeline-M&A charge, not a deterioration.
Lifecycle & sector: Health Care / Drug Manufacturers — General. Lifecycle stage Mature / cash-cow (low-single-digit-to-~10% revenue growth, high stable margins, ~2.5% dividend). Scored on the mature-pharma profile: R&D efficiency, patent-cliff exposure, revenue durability, ROIC — not growth multiples.
| Sub-signal | Value | Sector context | Score | Read |
|---|
| Revenue trajectory | Q2'26 $7.80bn; base-business +10.2% YoY; TTM ~$30.5bn | Big-pharma median ~3-5% | ["70","metric-good"] | Best Q2 base growth in 3 years — HIV re-accelerating |
| Profitability (clean) | GM 80% · illustrative op-margin ~49% (GAAP distorted by charge) | Top-decile pharma margins | ["82","metric-good"] | Premium branded economics intact ex-charge |
| Cash generation | FCF ~$12bn TTM; FCF/OCF 0.97 | Very high conversion | ["80","metric-good"] | Capex-light; funds dividend + buyback + M&A |
| Balance sheet | Net debt ~$23bn / clean-EBITDA ~1.8x · current 1.14 | Comfortable for pharma | ["70","metric-good"] | IG; tangible book negative (goodwill from Kite/Immunomedics + new deals) |
| Patent-cliff exposure (3yr) | Biktarvy LOE 2036; <10% rev at risk to 2029 | <20% = healthy | ["78","metric-good"] | The single best feature — no near cliff |
Industry benchmark — R&D efficiency + patent-cliff durability
Mature-pharma health = pipeline productivity vs revenue-at-risk. Gilead scores well on durability (no major LOE before Biktarvy 2036; Yeztugo PrEP inflecting; Livdelzi + HDV additions) but only fair on pipeline productivity — the Immunomedics/Trodelvy bet has repeatedly disappointed, and on 8 June 2026 the Trodelvy–Keytruda Phase III was scrapped on weak interim data (an already-known setback, predating the prior report). The three new IPR&D acquisitions add pipeline breadth but their returns are unproven. Benchmark score: 72/100 — strong revenue durability, mixed R&D return on capital.
Competitive Moat Scorecard
Pricing Power
72
Branded HIV; IRA Medicare negotiation is the ceiling
Network Effects
50
N/A for pharma — neutral
Switching Costs
64
Treatment inertia real, but ViiV/Merck long-acting agents chip at PrEP
Cost Advantage
62
Scale in HIV; no edge in oncology/ADC
Intangibles
82
Deep HIV patent estate to 2036; regulatory know-how
Moat = average 66. Anchored by the HIV patent estate; capped by competition eroding switching-cost and cost-advantage sub-scores (below).
Competitive Environment
Gilead's walls are strongest in HIV and thinnest in oncology. The read below feeds the Switching-Cost (→64) and Cost-Advantage (→62) sub-scores directly, rather than being asserted separately.
| Rival / threat | Where | Share trajectory | Moat-erosion vector |
|---|
| GSK / ViiV Healthcare (Cabenuva, Apretude) | HIV treatment & PrEP | Gilead stable→gaining | ViiV pushes long-acting injectables; Gilead answers with twice-yearly lenacapavir (Yeztugo, now >$1bn/qtr) — the most convenient PrEP, a share defence that is working |
| Merck (MK-8527 monthly oral PrEP, in development) | HIV PrEP | Gilead ahead, watching | A future once-monthly oral could challenge convenience leadership late-decade — not yet a live threat |
| AstraZeneca / Daiichi Sankyo (Enhertu), Merck (Keytruda) | Oncology / ADCs | Gilead losing/behind | Trodelvy trails Enhertu; the Keytruda combo Phase III was scrapped 8 June 2026 — the pipeline-productivity vector |
| BMS, Novartis, J&J/Legend (Breyanzi, Kymriah, Carvykti) | CAR-T cell therapy | Gilead (Kite) stable | Crowded CAR-T field; Kite competes on manufacturing/access, not exclusivity |
| AbbVie (Mavyret) | Hepatitis C | Structural decline (both) | Cure market shrinks by design — a run-off, not a share loss |
Net effect on the moat: Switching Costs held at 64 and Cost Advantage at 62 — the HIV core is defended (Yeztugo is a genuine, now-proving convenience edge), but oncology is a follower with no moat and the June Keytruda-combo failure is a standing reminder. Overall competitive threat: moderate; share trajectory stable (HIV holds/gains in PrEP, HCV runs off by design, oncology disappoints).
ROIC & Capital Allocation
ROIC: top-quartile on the core HIV business, but blended down by goodwill/IPR&D from the Kite and Immunomedics deals — and now by a further $11.2bn spent in Q2 on three pipeline acquisitions whose returns are entirely unproven. Capital allocation 60/100 (trimmed from 62): disciplined on the dividend (11 straight annual raises, ~44% payout, $0.79→$0.82) and buybacks, but the appetite for large, immediately-expensed pipeline M&A is a genuine, recurring blemish — this cuts both ways (adds breadth, dilutes near-term returns). Skin in the game 55/100: negligible insider ownership (~0.1%), typical for a mega-cap; SBC modest, no dilution flag.
4
Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness
Sector-appropriate multiples, FCF yield, reverse-DCF implied growth, embedded optionality, and the analyst-consensus cross-check.
Valuation Attractiveness — Pillar Score
Attractive on the rate-warranted anchor, clean/forward P/E and FCF yield; ignore the GAAP-distorted trailing metrics.
Valuation Attractiveness — Pillar Score
Cheap against a rate-and-growth-warranted multiple and on FCF yield, valued on the clean/illustrative earnings the business actually generates. The only trap here is the trailing GAAP figures, which the $11.2bn one-off charge has turned negative and meaningless.
70
Confidence 78% · Attractive band
Data-basis trap — score on CLEAN earnings, not GAAP
Q2's $11.2bn acquired-IPR&D charge turned trailing GAAP earnings negative (TTM net margin −10.6%, trailing P/E n/m, ROE −21%) and dragged FMP's health rating to C− (1/5) purely on those trailing lines. That is an accounting artefact. On the numbers the business actually earns — illustrative FY26 EPS $8.50-8.85 and FY27 consensus adjusted EPS ~$9.65 — Gilead is a cheap, cash-rich compounder. We score off the clean figures throughout.
THE ANCHOR — Warranted-multiple valuation
Discount rate r = 9.25% = 10-Y Treasury 4.75% + 4.5% ERP + 0.0% risk add-on (Business-Quality ≥65). Growth: g_near 7% (0.75 × ~9% consensus, under the 10% Health-Care cap), g_term 3%. Two-stage warranted P/E ≈ 19.5× (under the 22× Health-Care guardrail).
Actual clean multiple ≈ 13.6× ($130.86 / FY27 adj EPS ~$9.65) → ratio 0.70 → ATTRACTIVE (score band 78-100). On illustrative FY26 EPS (~$8.68 mid) the P/E is ~15.1× (ratio 0.77, still Attractive). Cheap on every clean lens versus what rates + disciplined growth warrant.
| Lens | Value | Reference | Read |
|---|
| Warranted-multiple ratio (anchor, 40%) | 0.70× | ≤0.80 = Attractive | ["Attractive","metric-good"] |
| FY27 fwd adj P/E | ~13.6× | Below pharma peers (~15-16×) | ["Attractive","metric-good"] |
| Illustrative FY26 P/E | ~15.1× | At/below peer median | ["Fair","metric-ok"] |
| Own 5-yr decile | Decile 5-6 (mid) | Not at a historic low | ["Fair","metric-ok"] |
| PEG (clean) | ~1.5 | Low-growth pharma | ["Fair","metric-ok"] |
| FCF yield (FCF/EV) | ~6.5% (FCF/mkt-cap ~7.5%) | 5-8% attractive | ["Attractive","metric-good"] |
| Dividend yield | 2.5% ($0.82/qtr, 44% payout, 11yr raises) | Covered, growing | ["Good","metric-good"] |
Reverse-DCF / implied growth
At ~$131 on ~$9.6 of forward adjusted earnings, the market is implying only ~2-3% long-run growth. Our disciplined estimate is ~7% near-term — the price embeds less growth than the fundamentals support, the signature of a value-priced quality name (not a hyper-growth trap).
Embedded Optionality — free upside
The core HIV annuity + dividend justifies most of the ~$131 price. For roughly free you also own: (1) Yeztugo / lenacapavir PrEP now ramping past $1bn/qtr — a multi-billion franchise the base case only partly credits; (2) an oral once-weekly HIV regimen (islatravir + lenacapavir) in late-stage development; (3) Livdelzi (seladelpar) in PBC and an HDV filing; (4) the newly-acquired Arcellx / Tubulis / Ouro pipeline the market prices near zero after Trodelvy fatigue. Tilt: +4 to the Valuation score — real, but hedged by a weak oncology track record.
Analyst targets, grades & FMP cross-check
Consensus target $158.44 (high $180 / low $123 / median $162.5) → ~21% upside from $130.86. Recency-weighted targets are lower — last-month avg $142.29 (7 analysts), last-quarter $146.92 — the honest reward read is ~$146-150 (~12-15% upside), after the Leerink downgrade to Market Perform (21 Jul). Grades: 39 Buy / 18 Hold / 1 Sell across 58 firms (67% bullish) — a solid Buy consensus, mostly maintained through the print. FMP health C− (1/5) — but that is the GAAP-loss artefact described above (DCF sub-score still 4/5); we disregard it in favour of the clean read. We score the analyst sub-signal off the recency-weighted ~$148, not the stale $158.
5
Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers
The dominant external force the stock is tethered to, scored 0–100. A context pillar: it does not change the base signal — it feeds amplification (tailwind ≥65 can lift BUY→STRONG BUY; headwind ≤35 can push SELL→STRONG SELL).
Primary driver: the HIV franchise's patent-cliff / pipeline balance, with US drug-pricing policy (IRA Medicare negotiation) as the secondary overlay. Gilead is not a commodity name — its fortunes hinge on keeping the HIV annuity protected while the pipeline replaces the hepatitis-C run-off. Not a commodity driver, so the price-trend overlay is n/a.
| Horizon | Read | Assessment |
|---|
| Historical (25%) | HIV dominance intact (Biktarvy #1), Yeztugo PrEP launched 2025 and now >$1bn/qtr, oncology diversification underway | ["70","metric-good"] |
| Current (50%) | Strong right now — Q2 base business +10.2%, HIV growth guidance raised to ~10%, Yeztugo inflecting; but IRA Medicare price negotiation is a live pricing headwind | ["66","metric-ok"] |
| Forward (25%) | Clouded but not newly so — Biktarvy LOE horizon (2036) plus IRA overhang, and $11.2bn of unproven acquisition pipeline to de-risk; the Trodelvy–Keytruda Phase III scrap (8 June 2026) is an already-known setback, not new this cycle | ["62","metric-warn"] |
Driver score 66 → Tailwind (unchanged). Strong current HIV momentum — Q2 base-business +10.2% and HIV guidance raised to ~10% — against a forward pipeline whose known setbacks are unchanged this cycle. The Trodelvy–Keytruda Phase III failure landed on 8 June 2026, before the prior report, so it is already reflected, not fresh news; and the Q2 print itself was a beat-and-raise, a positive for the driver. With no fresh negative to ease it, the driver holds at 66, which clears the ≥65 line the framework requires for a "clearly favourable" tailwind — so it remains amplification-eligible.
Amplification eligibility: 66 ≥ 65 → eligible. Combined with the Health-Care Long-Outperform economic pressure, the Long BUY amplifies to STRONG BUY — unchanged from last report. Short and Medium sit under Neutral economic pressure, so they do not amplify and hold at HOLD / BUY. The base BUY/HOLD/SELL is unchanged by the driver.
Thesis-invalidation floor: the case breaks if IRA/Medicare negotiation materially cuts HIV net pricing and lenacapavir uptake stalls — i.e. the annuity erodes faster than the pipeline fills. Watch Yeztugo scripts and the CMS negotiation list.
6
Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment
How the current economic climate sits relative to this stock, read from the latest Macro-Economic report. Classifies the macro pressure (Tailwind / Neutral / Headwind) — the second amplification input — and frames a long entry as Trend-Following or Contrarian with a 0–100 conviction.
Read from the newest Macro-Economic report (30 Jul 2026), regime "stagflation-lite — policy-tight into cooling growth, energy-shock re-armed". GILD is not in that report's watchlist forecast, so we map its GICS sector to the Driver-Sector matrix: Health Care (XLV) — Short Neutral · Medium Neutral · Long Outperform. Per-horizon economic pressure therefore: Short Neutral, Medium Neutral, Long Tailwind. Anchoring on the Medium horizon the stance is Neutral. Unchanged from last report: the Long-horizon economic pressure is a Tailwind (defensive Health-Care Outperform), and amplification requires BOTH a Tailwind economy AND a driver ≥65 — with the driver at 66 this cycle, the Long BUY amplifies to STRONG BUY exactly as it did last report. The armed Iran/Hormuz energy-shock and the S&P-concentration/AI-unwind tail risks do not touch GILD (non-AI, defensive, beta 0.34) — that insulation remains a genuine part of the long-term thesis, it simply no longer clears the amplification bar on its own.
Source: sector-map (GILD absent from the newest macro watchlist) · Macro report 2026-07-30
7
Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing
The risk-reward framework, relative strength vs SPY and the sector ETF, the macro overlay, news-derived sentiment, and the catalyst cluster.
Entry/Exit Timing — Pillar Score
Higher-timeframe uptrend intact but momentum flat; price slipped below the 200-DMA post-print — neutral, unconfirmed.
Entry/Exit Timing — Pillar Score
The Feb→Jun downtrend is repaired and monthly/weekly trends read up, but momentum is flat and the stock drifted below its 200-DMA (~$132) after the Q2 print — a neutral, unconfirmed tape rather than a clean entry. The earnings gate has cleared, so timing confidence recovers to 55%.
57
Confidence 55% · earnings gate cleared
Risk-Reward: price ~$130.86 sits just below the 200-DMA (~$132) and just above a flat 50-DMA (~$130). Nearest support $127 then the $121 June low; a stop under $121 is ~2.3 ATR (ATR daily $4.2, 3.2% of price) — a moderate risk perimeter. Not at a support bounce and not through resistance: mid-range and waiting.
| Signal | Reading | Score |
|---|
| MTF confluence | Monthly + weekly uptrend, daily "recovering" but below the 200-DMA; RSI ~49 (neutral), MACD histogram slightly negative; hourly/15-min drifted down post-print | ["60","metric-ok"] |
| Risk-reward (stop distance) | ~2.3 ATR to the $121 stop; mid-52wk-range (≈46%) | ["55","metric-ok"] |
| Relative strength | Roughly flat-to-slightly-behind SPY and XLV over 1-3m (carried from prior; not recomputed this 3-day refresh) — a laggard, not a leader | ["50","metric-ok"] |
| Sentiment (grades + news) | 0 upgrades vs 1 downgrade (Leerink, 21 Jul) in 30d; the print drew "strong HIV beat but long-term uncertainty" coverage; grades mostly maintained through it | ["48","metric-ok"] |
| Catalyst density | Q2 now behind; next earnings 29 Oct — a clear calendar | ["60","metric-ok"] |
Health Care is a low macro-sensitivity sector: weighting MTF 30% · risk-reward 20% · macro 10% · sentiment 20% · catalyst 20% → composite 57 (Neutral). The tape is constructive on the higher timeframes but has no confirmed momentum entry — which is exactly why the Short is a HOLD ("buy on confirmation").
8
Economic Event Risk
High-impact macro releases in the next 14 days that could swing this stock, plus the last 7 days of surprises.
Upcoming events (next 30 days)
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Non-Farm Payrolls / Unemployment (Jul) | High | +80k / 4.2% | +57k / 4.2% | ⚠ Low | Macro tape; GILD low sensitivity |
| 2026-08-12 | CPI / Core CPI (Jul) | High | 3.4% / 2.5% YoY | 3.5% / 2.6% | ⚠ Low | Rate path → discount rate, indirect |
| 2026-08-26 | Core PCE (Jul) | High | 0.3% MoM | 0.1% | ⚠ Low | Fed's gauge; indirect on the multiple only |
| 2026-10-29 | GILD Q3 2026 earnings | Very High | Adj EPS ~$2.13 / rev ~$7.8bn | Q2 illustrative $2.27 | ✅ Yes | Next company catalyst — drives the next update |
Recent surprises (last 7 days)
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|
| 2026-08-04 | GILD Q2 2026 earnings | Rev $7.80bn / illus EPS $2.27 | Rev ~$7.6bn | Beat (base); GAAP loss on charge | +10.2% revenue; $11.2bn IPR&D charge; HIV guide raised |
| 2026-08-05 | ISM Services PMI (Jul) | 54.1 | 54.5 | Slightly below | Services still expanding |
| 2026-08-03 | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | 55.6 | 54.0 | Above | Firmer factory data |
With Q2 now reported, there is no GILD-specific catalyst until Q3 on 29 Oct. The macro fortnight is inflation-heavy (CPI 12 Aug, PCE 26 Aug, FOMC minutes 19 Aug), but Health Care is a low-macro-sensitivity sector and none of these are GILD drivers — they touch the name only indirectly through the discount rate. No WAIT-for-event macro override applies.
9
Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis
Trend, RSI and breakout status across monthly / weekly / daily / hourly / 15-minute, with a confluence verdict.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend ↑ | Bullish | 61 | +, fading | S: 93 R: 157 | Resist. breakout | — |
| Weekly | Uptrend ↑ | Neutral | 50 | −, flat | S: 118 R: 157 | None | 1.1x |
| Daily | Recovering → | Neutral | 49 | −, slight | S: 121-127 R: 141 | Below 200-DMA | 1.4x |
| Hourly | Downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 48 | −, soft | S: 129 R: 135 | Breakdown | — |
| 15-min | Downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 55 | −, basing | S: 129 R: 132 | — | — |
| Confluence: Mixed — higher-TF uptrend, near-term drift · MTF Score 58 |
The tool flags a "bullish" confluence on the strength of the monthly/weekly uptrends, but that overstates it: the daily is merely recovering and now sits below its 200-DMA (~$132) with a neutral RSI (~49) and a slightly negative MACD histogram, and the intraday timeframes turned down after the print. The honest picture is a stock that repaired its Feb→Jun downtrend, based around $130-132, and is now drifting sideways-to-down while the market digests a strong base quarter clouded by long-term-pipeline questions. There is no clean momentum entry — the Short waits for a >1.5×-volume reclaim of $132 or a higher-low bounce off $121-127.
10
Price Chart (6-Month Daily)
A 6-month daily close line with SMA50 and key support/resistance — the visual companion to the MTF table.
GILD 6-month daily close with 50-day SMA. The stock rolled from a $157 Feb high to a $121 June low, then based and recovered to ~$132. It spiked to $135 on 3 Aug into the print, then slipped to $130.86 by 5 Aug — now just below the 200-DMA (~$132). Support $121-127; resistance $141 then the $157 high.
11
Scenario Summary
Bull / Base / Bear 12-month price paths with triggers and probability weights.
Bull $176 (23%)
Yeztugo PrEP compounds past $1bn/qtr into a durable multi-billion franchise, the oral-weekly HIV regimen de-risks the next leg, and at least one of the new acquisitions delivers. The market re-rates a defensive compounder toward the analyst high zone (~$176-180, ~+34%), with defensive rotation in a slowing economy adding a multiple tailwind.
Base $150 (52%)
HIV holds its raised ~10% trajectory, HCV runs off as expected, the pipeline contributes gradually and the IPR&D charge is looked through. A modest re-rating toward the recency-weighted analyst zone (~$146-150, ~+15%), collecting the 2.5% dividend along the way. This is the probability-weighted centre of gravity and the base-case 12-month target.
Bear $112 (25%)
Yeztugo uptake decelerates from the doubled-to-$1bn pace, the oncology pipeline disappoints again (the Trodelvy–Keytruda Phase III scrap of 8 June 2026 is the standing example), IRA Medicare negotiation bites HIV net pricing, and the $11.2bn of fresh M&A fails to earn its cost. A de-rate toward the $112 zone (~−14%). The named competitive/pipeline risk — ViiV/Merck long-acting PrEP plus repeated oncology misses — is the structural leg of this case.
Probability-weighted fair value ≈ 0.23·176 + 0.52·150 + 0.25·112 ≈ $147 — ~12% above the current $130.86, consistent with the recency-weighted analyst read.
12
Entry / Exit Rules
Three independent entry paths (Fundamental · Technical · Catalyst) and three exit triggers (Stop-Loss · Thesis · Profit-Target). Any one entry path is a valid entry — the more that agree, the larger the position the conviction ladder suggests. Exits are graded by severity, not count.
How to read this — the Conviction Ladder
The three entry groups are alternative paths to a buy, not a checklist. A group counts only when all its sub-conditions hold. How many groups are satisfied sets the suggested size — it does not gate whether you may enter: 1 group = Half-Size (a valid starter/scale-in), 2 = Full-Size, 3 = Over-Size (highest conviction); 0 = Wait (no path open yet). A strong overall signal can still read Wait here when the stock is well above its entry zones — that flags "good business, no entry edge right now," not a contradiction. Exits are graded by severity of what is live, not by a count: a hard stop is an Exit on its own.
Entry conviction: Half-Size1 of 3 groups met — one path open — starter / scale-in
Fundamental — MET
Cheap on clean earnings, driver-supported, and the earnings blackout has cleared — this path is now open.
✅ Price $130.86 < fair value ~$150
✅ No earnings within 7 days (next 29 Oct)
✅ Underlying-Driver score ≥ 50 (66)
Technical — not MET
Below the 200-DMA; no volume reclaim and not at support with a confirmed higher low.
⛔ Daily close > 50-DMA ($130) on >1.5× volume, OR a tested bounce off $121-127 with a higher low
✅ RSI 35-65 (49)
⛔ MACD histogram positive ≥2 days (currently slightly negative)
Catalyst — not MET
The Q2 catalyst has passed and it did not fire — the stock slipped, not gapped up.
⛔ Post-earnings move > +5% within 24h (it was slightly negative)
✅ Guidance raised or maintained (product/HIV guidance raised — partial)
⛔ Volume > 2× the 20-day average (was ~1.4×)
Forecast: Fundamental is met now and stays met while GILD trades below ~$150 with no earnings inside 7 days — High confidence it remains open through this two-week window. Technical needs either a >1.5×-volume reclaim of the $132 200-DMA or a tested bounce off $121-127 with a higher low — Moderate/catalyst-dependent: with no company catalyst until 29 Oct, this most likely turns on the macro tape (CPI 12 Aug) or a broad Health-Care rotation, in weeks not days. Catalyst resolved at the Q2 print and did not fire; the next shot is Q3 (29 Oct). Net: one path open (Fundamental) → Half-Size conviction; a Technical reclaim would take it to Full-Size and confirm the Short.
Exit action: Holdno exit trigger is live — hold the position
Stop-Loss — not LIVE
⛔ Two daily closes below $121 (below the June swing low)
Thesis Invalidation — not LIVE
⛔ Full-year illustrative (ex-charge) EPS guidance cut
⛔ IRA Medicare negotiation materially cuts HIV net pricing AND lenacapavir uptake stalls
⛔ Competitive: ViiV/Merck long-acting agents take material HIV/PrEP share from Yeztugo, or another oncology pipeline failure
Profit-Target — not LIVE
⛔ Price into the $158-162 median target with RSI > 70 and no quality re-rating
Forecast: Stop unlikely in 4-6 weeks absent a negative surprise — $121 is ~7.5% below spot and below both the 50- and 200-DMA. No thesis-invalidation condition is live (guidance ex-charge was raised, not cut). Profit-target ($158+ with RSI>70) is not close.
Imagine you act at the current price of $130.86 · as of 7 Aug 2026
What if you bought now?
You'd be risking ~7.5% to the $121 stop (−14% to the $112 bear) to gain ~15% base / ~34% bull, buying a cheap quality compounder with one entry path (Fundamental) open but the tape not yet confirmed.
- Risking: downside to the $121 stop (−7.5%) and the $112 bear (−14.4%); the Technical group is not met — you'd be buying below the 200-DMA with flat momentum, so a Half-size starter (not full) is the disciplined size.
- Gaining: base $150 (+14.6%) and bull $176 (+34.5%) you start capturing, plus a 2.5% dividend and ~6.5% FCF yield while you wait, and the free pipeline optionality (Yeztugo, oral-weekly HIV, HDV, the new acquisitions).
- Read: for a Long/Medium holder the risk-reward is favourable and the dividend pays you to wait — a half-size starter is defensible now, scaling in on a $132 reclaim or a $121-127 higher-low. For a Short-term trade, wait for that technical confirmation; there is no momentum edge at $131 below the 200-DMA.
What if you sold now?
You'd be giving up ~15% base upside + a growing 2.5% dividend to protect against a ~14% bear-case drawdown.
- Giving up: base upside to $150 (+15%), the dividend and buyback, and the pipeline optionality — and you'd be selling below our ~$147-150 fair value on a business that just grew its base +10%.
- Protecting: capital if oncology/pipeline disappointments compound and the $112 bear plays out. No exit rule is triggered right now — no stop, no thesis break, no profit-target. Mechanically this is a hold/accumulate zone, not a sell.
13
Position Sizing Context
Illustrative portfolio math (not advice) translating conviction into an allocation given risk-per-share and volatility.
Position sizing not computed — specify your portfolio allocation and role for sizing guidance.
14
Calibration Snapshot
Machine-readable snapshot of every score, level and signal, saved alongside the HTML so the next run can compute deltas.
{
"ticker": "GILD",
"date": "2026-08-07",
"version": "v6",
"brand": "",
"exchange": "NASDAQ",
"exchange_ticker": "NASDAQ:GILD",
"isin": "US3755581036",
"api_ticker": "GILD",
"analysis_status": "on-going",
"finder_ticker": "GILD",
"finder_exchange": "\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 NASDAQ",
"finder_section": "Health Care",
"user_horizon": null,
"user_allocation_pct": null,
"portfolio_role": null,
"lifecycle_stage": "mature",
"price_at_rating": 130.86,
"signal_short": "HOLD",
"signal_medium": "BUY",
"signal_long": "STRONG_BUY",
"primary_signal": "BUY",
"short_hold_reason": "technical_pending",
"quality_score": 73,
"quality_detail": {
"industry_benchmark_name": "R&D efficiency + patent-cliff durability",
"industry_benchmark_value": "Biktarvy LOE 2036; Q2 base +10.2%, oncology R&D mixed (Trodelvy-Keytruda scrapped 8 June 2026, already-known)",
"industry_benchmark_score": 72,
"moat_score": 66,
"roic_percentile_vs_peers": 75,
"capital_allocation": 60,
"management_skin_in_game": 55
},
"valuation_score": 70,
"valuation_detail": {
"fcf_yield": 6.5,
"implied_growth_rate": 2.5,
"consensus_growth_rate": 9.0,
"historical_valuation_decile": 5
},
"warranted_multiple": 19.5,
"actual_multiple": 13.6,
"val_multiple_basis": "FY27 consensus forward adjusted P/E (EPS ~$9.65); illustrative FY26 EPS $8.50-8.85",
"discount_rate_r": 9.25,
"risk_free_10y": 4.75,
"g_near": 7.0,
"g_term": 3.0,
"warranted_ratio": 0.7,
"val_band": "attractive",
"nonop_pct_of_net_income": "n/m (Q2 GAAP is a loss; $11.2bn acquired-IPR&D charge \u2014 scored on illustrative EPS $2.27)",
"clean_pe": 13.6,
"clean_peg": 1.5,
"timing_score": 57,
"timing_detail": {
"mtf_confluence": 58,
"risk_reward_score": 55,
"relative_strength_vs_spy": -2.0,
"relative_strength_vs_sector": -2.0,
"catalyst_clustering_score": 60,
"dynamic_macro_weight": 0.1
},
"driver_score": 66,
"driver_label": "Tailwind",
"driver_commodity_trend": "n/a (non-commodity)",
"economic_alignment_stance": "Neutral",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 55,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Neutral",
"economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
"macro_report_date": "2026-07-30",
"competitive_share_trajectory": "stable",
"competitive_threat_level": "moderate",
"overall_confidence": 55,
"fair_value_est": 150,
"stop_loss": 121,
"target_price": 150,
"scenario_base_target": 150,
"scenario_bull_target": 176,
"scenario_bear_target": 112,
"analyst_consensus_target": 158.44,
"analyst_target_high": 180,
"analyst_target_low": 123,
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 21.1,
"analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
"analyst_bullish_pct": 67.2,
"analyst_coverage_count": 58,
"fmp_rating": "C-",
"fmp_overall_score": 1,
"recent_upgrades_30d": 0,
"recent_downgrades_30d": 1,
"hard_gate_state": "clear",
"short_entry_confirmed": false,
"short_cap_reason": "Short base BUY capped to HOLD by the technical-confirmation cap \u2014 Fundamental group is met (cheap, no imminent earnings) but neither Technical (below 200-DMA, no >1.5x volume reclaim, MACD not positive) nor Catalyst (Q2 print did not gap >+5%) is met. Buy on confirmation: a $132 reclaim on volume or a $121-127 higher-low bounce.",
"entry_groups_met": 1,
"entry_conviction": "Half-Size",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"gates_triggered": [],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"next_update_date": "2026-08-21",
"next_update_basis": "default +14d (Q2 reported 4 Aug; next earnings 2026-10-29 beyond window)",
"currency": "USD",
"company": "Gilead Sciences, Inc."
}
15
Data Sources & Methodology
Audit trail of every data source: fully available (✓), fallback (⚠), or failed (✗), plus provenance-based confidence haircuts.
Data Source Status
✓
get_stock_snapshot / get_yahoo_quote price $130.86 (5 Aug close), beta 0.34, mkt cap $162bn, ISIN US3755581036
✓
get_income_statement (6q) Q2'26 rev $7.80bn (+10.2%); GAAP EPS −$8.45 on $11.2bn IPR&D charge; illustrative $2.27
⚠
get_financial_ratios GM 80%; trailing GAAP metrics negative from the one-off charge (P/E n/m, ROE −21%) — disregarded; scored on clean/forward
✓
get_price_target_consensus / _summary consensus $158.44 (high 180/low 123/med 162.5); recent avg lower ($142-147) — recency-weighted
✓
get_grades_consensus / get_stock_grades 39 Buy/18 Hold/1 Sell; mostly maintained through the print; Leerink downgrade 21 Jul
✓
get_ratings_snapshot C− (1/5) — but that is the GAAP-loss artefact; DCF sub-score still 4/5
✓
get_multi_timeframe_analysis / get_stock_prices 6-month daily + 5-TF; below 200-DMA, higher-TF uptrend intact, intraday down
✓
get_earnings_calendar next Q3 earnings 29 Oct 2026 (est EPS $2.13)
✓
get_stock_dividends verified $0.82/qtr (declared 28 Jul, ex 15 Sep 2026) — raised from $0.79, NOT cut; ~2.5% yield
✓
web (Q2 release, IPR&D charge, competitors) / Macro-Economic state (30 Jul) Gilead IR + StockTitan/Investing.com for illustrative EPS $2.27 & FY guide $8.50-8.85; XLV S/M/L = N/N/O
Impact on scores: Strong coverage this run. One partial: trailing GAAP ratios are distorted by the Q2 IPR&D charge, so Quality/Valuation are scored on clean/illustrative earnings (verified against the Gilead release and multiple outlets). Relative-strength vs SPY/XLV is carried from the prior report (a 3-day refresh), noted as such rather than recomputed. Overall confidence 55 (up from 42) — the earnings-event gate has cleared and the fundamental read is high-confidence; timing is neutral/unconfirmed rather than gated.
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.