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NASDAQ:GILD Gilead Sciences, Inc.

ISIN: US3755581036
Health CareBiopharmaceuticalsHIV / OncologyQ2 earnings tonight (4 Aug, after close)
NASDAQ · Foster City, CA · Large-cap pharma · Beta 0.34 Analysis Status: On-Going
$132.03
+0.5%
4 Aug 2026 · Signal v6

Changes Since Last Report

vs. previous report dated 20 Jul 2026 ($133.21). Price ~$132.03 (−0.9%). Medium-term downgraded STRONG BUY → BUY — this is a macro/positioning change, not GILD deteriorating: the newest macro report (30 Jul) no longer carries GILD in its watchlist, so economic alignment falls back to the Health-Care sector map, where the Medium horizon is Neutral (no amplification). The Long stays STRONG BUY (Health-Care Long = Outperform = Tailwind). Short stays HOLD but the entry ladder drops to Wait (0/3) from Half-Size — the Q2 print tonight knocks out the Fundamental entry group's 7-day earnings blackout.

DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Gilead Sciences, Inc.

Gilead Sciences is a large-cap American biopharmaceutical company built on one of the most durable franchises in medicine: HIV. Its flagship Biktarvy is the world's most-prescribed HIV regimen, and the wider HIV portfolio (Descovy, plus the twice-yearly PrEP injectable lenacapavir, branded Yeztugo) throws off the bulk of the group's ~$30bn of annual revenue at ~79% gross margins. Beyond HIV, Gilead runs a declining-but-cash-rich hepatitis-C business, a liver-disease franchise (Livdelzi/seladelpar, Vemlidy), and an oncology/cell-therapy arm acquired through deals — Kite (Yescarta, Tecartus CAR-T) and Immunomedics (the Trodelvy antibody-drug conjugate). What sets Gilead apart is the combination of a patent-protected, high-margin HIV annuity with no major loss-of-exclusivity until Biktarvy in 2036, funding a dividend it has raised for 11 straight years while it tries to diversify into oncology. For a non-expert: think of it as a cash-machine HIV company using that cash to buy its way into cancer and liver disease.

HorizonSignalComposite ScoreConfidenceKey Driver
Short-term (1–3 mo)HOLD5240%Capped — Q2 print tonight, no confirmed entry (buy on confirmation)
Medium-term (6–12 mo)BUY6648%Cheap + high-quality; macro Neutral so no amplification
Long-term (3–5 yr)STRONG BUY7252%Quality + defensive Long tailwind (Health-Care Outperform)
Next update: 2026-08-05 — Q2 2026 earnings 2026-08-04 after close +1 trading day
Table of Contents
1Five-Pillar Scorecard2Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status3Pillar Detail: Business Quality4Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness5Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers6Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment7Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing8Economic Event Risk9Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis10Price Chart (6-Month Daily)11Scenario Summary12Entry / Exit Rules13Position Sizing Context14Calibration Snapshot15Data Sources & Methodology
1

Five-Pillar Scorecard

Five independent scores — each 0–100 with its own confidence. The three fundamental pillars (Quality / Valuation / Timing) set the base BUY/HOLD/SELL via the Decision Matrix; the two context pillars (Underlying Drivers, Economic Alignment) then amplify a BUY to STRONG BUY or a SELL to STRONG SELL when both corroborate.

Business Quality

74
strong
conf 75%

Valuation Attractiveness

70
attractive
conf 78%

Entry/Exit Timing

61
neutral (earnings-gated)
conf 40%

Underlying Drivers

66
Tailwind
conf 62%

Economic Alignment

55
Neutral (Med) · Tailwind (Long)
conf 55%
2

Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status

Binary safety checks — any TRIGGERED gate is a hard cap regardless of the scores above; CAUTION gates are sizing notes.
✅
Financial Distress
Net debt/EBITDA ~1.7x, interest cover 11x, current 1.97 — clear.
❌
Earnings Event Risk
⚠ Q2 2026 report TONIGHT (4 Aug, after close). Timing confidence capped at 40%. Does not cap the signal, but is why the Short is WAIT.
✅
Valuation Ceiling
Attractive band (ratio 0.70), P/E ~18× < 22× guardrail — clear.
✅
Accounting / Dilution
Non-operating income net ~0% of net income; share count shrinking; SBC modest — clear.
✅
Regulatory / Binary Event
No single pending FDA binary >20% mover; Yeztugo already approved — clear.
✅
Severe Driver Collapse
Driver 66 (Tailwind) — far above the ≤15 collapse floor.
Do-Not-Buy triggers: none fired. Note (not a trigger): the Street's most recent targets drifted down (Leerink downgrade 21 Jul; last-month avg target $146 vs $150) — monitored, but not the 3-consecutive-months-of-downward-EPS-revisions pattern that Trigger 3 requires.
3

Pillar Detail: Business Quality

A deep dive into the Quality score: business economics, moat, ROIC and the industry benchmark.
Business Quality — Pillar Score
High-margin HIV annuity, fortress balance sheet, no cliff to 2036; oncology unproven.
74
conf 75%
Business Quality — Pillar Score
A high-margin, cash-generative HIV annuity with a fortress balance sheet — dragged only by a lumpy acquisition track record and a diversification (oncology) that has not yet proven it can replace the HCV run-off.
74
Confidence 75% · mature-pharma lens

Lifecycle & sector: Health Care / Drug Manufacturers — General. Lifecycle stage Mature / cash-cow (low-single-digit revenue growth, high stable margins, ~2.4% dividend). Scored on the mature-pharma profile: R&D efficiency, patent-cliff exposure, revenue durability, ROIC — not growth multiples.

Sub-signalValueSector contextScoreRead
Revenue trajectoryTTM ~$29.7bn; Q1'26 +4.4% YoYBig-pharma median ~3-5%["62","metric-ok"]Durable but slow — HIV growth + HCV run-off nets to low-single-digit
Profitability (gross / net)GM 79.4% · net margin 31%Top-decile pharma margins["82","metric-good"]Premium branded economics; margin stable
Cash generationFCF ~$10bn; FCF/OCF 0.95Very high conversion["80","metric-good"]Capex-light; funds dividend + buyback + M&A
Balance sheetNet debt/EBITDA ~1.7x · int. cover 11x · current 1.97Comfortable for pharma["72","metric-good"]Investment-grade; tangible book negative (goodwill from Kite/Immunomedics)
Patent-cliff exposure (3yr)Biktarvy LOE 2036; <10% rev at risk to 2029<20% = healthy["78","metric-good"]The single best feature — no near cliff

Industry benchmark — R&D efficiency + patent-cliff durability

Mature-pharma health = pipeline productivity vs revenue-at-risk. Gilead scores well on durability (no major LOE before Biktarvy 2036; four 2026 launches — Yeztugo PrEP, Livdelzi, plus oncology/HDV filings) but only fair on pipeline productivity (the $21bn Immunomedics/Trodelvy bet has repeatedly disappointed — the Merck Keytruda lung-cancer combo was halted in June 2026). Benchmark score: 73/100 — strong revenue durability, mixed R&D return on capital.

Competitive Moat Scorecard

Pricing Power

72
Branded HIV; IRA Medicare negotiation is the ceiling

Network Effects

50
N/A for pharma — neutral

Switching Costs

64
Treatment inertia real, but ViiV long-acting injectables chip at PrEP

Cost Advantage

62
Scale in HIV; no edge in oncology/ADC

Intangibles

82
Deep HIV patent estate to 2036; regulatory know-how

Moat = average 66. Anchored by the HIV patent estate; capped by competition eroding switching-cost and cost-advantage sub-scores (below).

Competitive Environment

Gilead's walls are strongest in HIV and thinnest in oncology. The read below feeds the Switching-Cost (→64) and Cost-Advantage (→62) sub-scores directly, rather than being asserted separately.
Rival / threatWhereShare trajectoryMoat-erosion vector
GSK / ViiV Healthcare (Cabenuva, Apretude)HIV treatment & PrEPGilead stable→gainingViiV pushes long-acting injectables; Gilead answers with twice-yearly lenacapavir (Yeztugo) — the most convenient PrEP, a share defence
AstraZeneca / Daiichi Sankyo (Enhertu)Oncology / ADCsGilead losing/behindTrodelvy trails Enhertu; the Merck Keytruda lung combo was halted Jun 2026 — pipeline productivity vector
BMS, Novartis, J&J/Legend (Breyanzi, Kymriah, Carvykti)CAR-T cell therapyGilead (Kite) stableCrowded CAR-T field; Kite competes on manufacturing/access (mobile leukapheresis), not exclusivity
AbbVie (Mavyret)Hepatitis CStructural decline (both)Cure market shrinks by design — a run-off, not a share loss

Net effect on the moat: Switching Costs trimmed to 64 and Cost Advantage to 62 — the HIV core is defended (Yeztugo is a genuine convenience edge), but oncology is a follower with no moat. Overall competitive threat: moderate; share trajectory stable (HIV holds, HCV runs off by design, oncology disappoints).

ROIC & Capital Allocation

ROIC: top-quartile on the core HIV business (FMP ROE / ROA sub-scores both 5/5), but blended down by ~$25bn of goodwill from the Kite and Immunomedics deals whose returns have lagged — a genuine capital-allocation blemish. Capital allocation 62/100: disciplined on the dividend (11 straight annual raises, ~44% payout) and buybacks (share count down 1,248m→1,242m), undisciplined on large oncology M&A. Skin in the game 55/100: negligible insider ownership (~0.1%), typical for a mega-cap; SBC modest, no dilution flag.

4

Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness

Sector-appropriate multiples, FCF yield, reverse-DCF implied growth, embedded optionality, and the analyst-consensus cross-check.
Valuation Attractiveness — Pillar Score
Attractive on the rate-warranted anchor and FCF yield; recent targets trimmed.
70
conf 78%
Valuation Attractiveness — Pillar Score
Cheap against a rate-and-growth-warranted multiple and on FCF yield; the caveat is that the Street's most recent targets have drifted down, so the reward side is smaller than the headline consensus implies.
70
Confidence 78% · Attractive band

THE ANCHOR — Warranted-multiple valuation

Discount rate r = 9.25% = 10-Y Treasury 4.75% (FRED DGS10, 31 Jul 2026) + 4.5% ERP + 0.0% risk add-on (Business-Quality ≥65). Growth: g_near 7% (0.75 × ~9% consensus, under the 10% Health-Care cap), g_term 3%. Two-stage warranted P/E ≈ 19.5× (under the 22× Health-Care guardrail).
Actual clean multiple ≈ 13.7× (FY27 consensus adjusted EPS ~$9.65) → ratio 0.70 → ATTRACTIVE (score band 78-100). On trailing GAAP the P/E is ~18× (ratio 0.92, Attractive/Fair edge) and on FY26 forward ~15× (ratio 0.77). Cheap on every lens versus what rates + disciplined growth warrant. The higher 10-Y (4.55%→4.75%) trimmed the warranted multiple from ~20.2× to ~19.5× since the last report, but the name stays comfortably in the Attractive band.
LensValueReferenceRead
Warranted-multiple ratio (anchor, 40%)0.70×≤0.80 = Attractive["Attractive","metric-good"]
Trailing P/E~18×Pharma median ~15-16×["Fair","metric-ok"]
FY27 fwd adj P/E~13.7×Below peers["Attractive","metric-good"]
Own 5-yr decileDecile 6 (mid)Not at a historic low["Fair","metric-ok"]
PEG (clean)~1.7Low-growth pharma["Fair","metric-ok"]
FCF yield (FCF/EV)~5.7%5-8% attractive["Attractive","metric-good"]
Dividend yield2.4% (44% payout, 11yr raises)Covered, growing["Good","metric-good"]

Reverse-DCF / implied growth

At ~$132 on ~$9.6 of forward adjusted earnings, the market is implying only ~2-3% long-run growth. Our disciplined estimate is ~7% near-term — the price embeds less growth than the fundamentals support, the signature of a value-priced quality name (not a hyper-growth trap).

Embedded Optionality — free upside

The core HIV annuity + dividend justifies most of the ~$132 price. For roughly free you also own: (1) lenacapavir / Yeztugo the twice-yearly PrEP launch — a potential multi-billion franchise the base case only partly credits; (2) an oral once-weekly HIV regimen (islatravir + lenacapavir) with positive Phase 3 in 2026; (3) Livdelzi (seladelpar) in PBC and an HDV (hepatitis-delta) filing; (4) the Kite cell-therapy access build-out. Each is a call option the market prices near zero after Trodelvy fatigue. Tilt: +4 to the Valuation score — real, but hedged by a weak oncology track record.

Analyst targets, grades & FMP cross-check

Consensus target $158.67 (high $180 / low $120 / median $162.5) → ~20% upside from $132. But recent targets are lower: last-month avg $146.33 (6 analysts) and last-quarter avg $149 — the recency-weighted read is ~$148-150 (~12-14% upside), after the Leerink downgrade to Market Perform (21 Jul). Grades: 39 Buy / 18 Hold / 1 Sell across 58 firms (67% bullish, down from 69%) — a solid but not unanimous Buy consensus. FMP health B+ (3/5) — ROE 5/5, ROA 5/5, DCF 4/5, dragged by D/E 1/5 and P/B 1/5 (the negative tangible book from acquisitions). We score the analyst sub-signal off the recency-weighted ~$149, not the stale $158.67.
5

Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers

The dominant external force the stock is tethered to, scored 0–100. A context pillar: it does not change the base signal — it feeds amplification (tailwind ≥65 can lift BUY→STRONG BUY; headwind ≤35 can push SELL→STRONG SELL).
Primary Driver
HIV patent-cliff / pipeline + IRA drug pricing
66
Tailwind (just)

Primary driver: the HIV franchise's patent-cliff / pipeline balance, with US drug-pricing policy (IRA Medicare negotiation) as the secondary overlay. Gilead is not a commodity name — its fortunes hinge on keeping the HIV annuity protected while the pipeline replaces the hepatitis-C run-off.

HorizonReadAssessment
Historical (25%)HIV dominance intact (Biktarvy #1), Yeztugo PrEP launched 2025, oncology diversification underway["70","metric-good"]
Current (50%)No LOE before 2036; four 2026 launches — but IRA Medicare price negotiation is a live headwind on HIV pricing, and the Trodelvy lung-cancer combo was halted in June["64","metric-ok"]
Forward (25%)Lenacapavir PrEP ramp + positive Phase-3 oral weekly HIV; offset by oncology disappointment and the pricing overhang["63","metric-ok"]

Driver score 66 → Tailwind (just). The score sits just above the ≥65 amplification line — deliberately, because the IRA drug-pricing headwind and the Trodelvy R&D misses are weighed in, not hand-waved. This is a qualified tailwind: enough to amplify a base BUY where the economy also corroborates, but one bad print (slow Yeztugo uptake or a harsher IRA outcome) would pull it to Neutral and demote the Long signal back to plain BUY.

Amplification eligibility: 66 ≥ 65 → eligible. Applied per horizon with the Economic-Alignment pressure (§6): Short/Medium economic pressure is Neutral (no amplification), Long pressure is Tailwind (Health-Care Outperform) → only the Long BUY amplifies to STRONG BUY. The base BUY/HOLD/SELL is unchanged by the driver.

Thesis-invalidation floor: the case breaks if IRA/Medicare negotiation materially cuts HIV net pricing and lenacapavir uptake stalls — i.e. the annuity erodes faster than the pipeline fills. Watch Yeztugo scripts and the CMS negotiation list.

6

Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment

How the current economic climate sits relative to this stock, read from the latest Macro-Economic report. Classifies the macro pressure (Tailwind / Neutral / Headwind) — the second amplification input — and frames a long entry as Trend-Following or Contrarian with a 0–100 conviction.
Stance · Pressure
Neutral · Neutral (Med) · Tailwind (Long)
55
conviction

Read from the newest Macro-Economic report (30 Jul 2026), regime "stagflation-lite — policy-tight into cooling growth" (Fed held 3.75% on 29 Jul; Q2 GDP cooled to 1.5%; core PCE soft). GILD is not in that report's watchlist forecast, so we map its GICS sector to the Driver-Sector matrix: Health Care (XLV) — Short Neutral · Medium Neutral · Long Outperform. Per-horizon economic pressure therefore: Short Neutral, Medium Neutral, Long Tailwind. Anchoring on the Medium horizon the stance is Neutral (macro neither helps nor hurts the 6-12m view) — which is why the Medium signal stays a plain BUY rather than STRONG BUY. On the Long horizon the defensive-outperform pressure is a genuine Tailwind: in a policy-tight, slowing-growth, energy-shock-armed tape, a low-beta (0.34) cash-generative pharma is exactly where capital rotates — and that Long Tailwind is what lifts the Long BUY to STRONG BUY. The armed Iran/Hormuz energy-shock and the S&P-concentration/AI-unwind tail risks do not touch GILD (non-AI, defensive) — that insulation is the long-term thesis.

Source: sector-map (GILD absent from the newest macro watchlist) · Macro report 2026-07-30

7

Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing

The risk-reward framework, relative strength vs SPY and the sector ETF, the macro overlay, news-derived sentiment, and the catalyst cluster.
Entry/Exit Timing — Pillar Score
Coiled at the 200-DMA; Q2 print tonight caps timing confidence at 40%.
61
conf 40%
Entry/Exit Timing — Pillar Score
Constructive-but-neutral tape coiled at the 200-DMA — and a Q2 earnings print tonight (4 Aug, after close) that makes any fresh entry a coin-flip until the numbers land. Timing confidence is gated to 40%.
61
Confidence 40% · capped by earnings gate

Risk-Reward: price ~$132 sits at the 200-DMA (~$132), above a rising 50-DMA (~$130). Nearest support $127 then the $121 June low; a stop under $121 is ~1.8 ATR (ATR daily $3.6, 2.7% of price) — a moderate-to-tight risk perimeter. But entering the night of earnings widens the effective risk well beyond the chart.

SignalReadingScore
MTF confluenceMonthly + weekly uptrend, daily "recovering" at the 200-DMA; RSI ~50 (neutral), daily MACD histogram slightly negative["70","metric-ok"]
Risk-reward (stop distance)~1.8 ATR to the $121 stop; mid-52wk-range (≈48%)["58","metric-ok"]
Relative strengthRoughly flat vs SPY and XLV over 1-3m — a laggard, not a leader["50","metric-ok"]
Sentiment (grades + news)1 upgrade (HSBC, 6 Jul) vs 1 downgrade (Leerink, 21 Jul) in 30d; bullish 2026-launch narrative vs Trodelvy setback["55","metric-ok"]
Catalyst densityQ2 earnings tonight — a single, imminent, high-impact event → noisy["40","metric-warn"]

Health Care is a low macro-sensitivity sector: weighting MTF 30% · risk-reward 20% · macro 10% · sentiment 20% · catalyst 20% → composite 61 (Improving, just). The Earnings-Event gate caps timing confidence at 40% regardless — the numbers land in hours.

8

Economic Event Risk

High-impact macro releases in the next 14 days that could swing this stock, plus the last 7 days of surprises.

Upcoming events (next 30 days)

DateEventImpactForecastPreviousRelevant?Why
2026-08-04GILD Q2 2026 earnings (after close)Very HighAdj EPS ~$2.0 / rev ~$7.3bnQ1 $1.61 GAAP✅ YesTHE event — guidance + Yeztugo uptake tonight
2026-08-07Non-Farm Payrolls (Jul)High+80k+57k⚠ LowMacro tape; GILD low sensitivity
2026-08-12CPI / Core CPI (Jul)HighCore 2.5% YoY2.6%⚠ LowRate path → discount rate, indirect

Recent surprises (last 7 days)

DateEventActualForecastSurpriseImpact
2026-07-29Fed rate decision3.75%3.75%InlineHeld; 10-Y drifted to 4.75%
2026-07-30Q2 GDP / Core PCE1.5% / 0.1%2.1% / 0.2%BelowCooling growth + soft inflation — defensive-favourable
2026-08-03ISM Manufacturing55.654.0AboveFirmer factory data

The only event that matters for GILD this fortnight is tonight's Q2 print — a company-specific, high-impact catalyst. The macro backdrop (Fed on hold, growth cooling, inflation soft) is mildly supportive of defensives but is not a GILD driver. Health Care is a low-macro-sensitivity sector, so no WAIT-for-event macro override applies; the earnings gate does the work instead.

9

Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis

Trend, RSI and breakout status across monthly / weekly / daily / hourly / 15-minute, with a confluence verdict.
TimeframeTrendDirectionRSIMACDKey S/RBreakoutVol
MonthlyUptrend ↑Bullish62+, fadingS: 93 R: 157Resist. breakout—
WeeklyUptrend ↑Neutral51flatS: 118 R: 157None0.4x
DailyRecovering →Neutral50−, slightS: 127 R: 141At 200-DMA1.2x
HourlyUptrend ↑Bullish59+, risingS: 129 R: 136—0.9x
15-minUptrend ↑Bullish65+, risingS: 129 R: 132—1.1x
Confluence: Mostly Bullish (structure) / Neutral (momentum) · MTF Score 66

Higher timeframes read up and the tool flags a "strongly bullish" confluence, but that overstates it: the daily is merely recovering at its 200-DMA with a neutral RSI (~50) and a slightly negative MACD histogram, and the weekly is flat. The honest picture is a stock that has repaired the Feb→Jun downtrend and is now coiled at $132, waiting on a fundamental trigger. There is no clean momentum entry here — the setup resolves on tonight's print, not on the chart.

10

Price Chart (6-Month Daily)

A 6-month daily close line with SMA50 and key support/resistance — the visual companion to the MTF table.

GILD 6-month daily close with 50-day SMA. The stock rolled from a $157 Feb high to a $121 June low, then based and recovered to ~$132 — now coiled around its 200-DMA (~$132) into tonight's Q2 print. Support $121-127; resistance $141 then the $157 high.

11

Scenario Summary

Bull / Base / Bear 12-month price paths with triggers and probability weights.

Bull $180 (25%)

Q2 beats and management lifts guidance; Yeztugo PrEP scripts inflect and the oral-weekly HIV data de-risk the next franchise; oncology stabilises. The market re-rates a defensive compounder toward the analyst high of $180 (~+36%). Defensive rotation in a slowing economy adds a multiple tailwind.

Base $152 (50%)

HIV holds, HCV runs off as expected, pipeline contributes gradually. Modest re-rating toward the recency-weighted analyst zone (~$148-152, ~+15%), collecting the 2.4% dividend along the way. This is the probability-weighted centre of gravity and the base-case 12-month target.

Bear $112 (25%)

Q2 disappoints or guidance is trimmed tonight; IRA Medicare negotiation bites HIV net pricing; Yeztugo uptake is slow and oncology (Trodelvy) disappoints again. A de-rate toward the low-target/$112 zone (~−15%). The named competitive risk — ViiV taking long-acting PrEP share — is the structural leg of this case.

Probability-weighted fair value ≈ 0.25·180 + 0.50·152 + 0.25·112 ≈ $149 — ~13% above the current $132, consistent with the recency-weighted analyst read.

12

Entry / Exit Rules

Three independent entry paths (Fundamental · Technical · Catalyst) and three exit triggers (Stop-Loss · Thesis · Profit-Target). Any one entry path is a valid entry — the more that agree, the larger the position the conviction ladder suggests. Exits are graded by severity, not count.

How to read this — the Conviction Ladder

The three entry groups are alternative paths to a buy, not a checklist. A group counts only when all its sub-conditions hold. How many groups are satisfied sets the suggested size — it does not gate whether you may enter: 1 group = Half-Size (a valid starter/scale-in), 2 = Full-Size, 3 = Over-Size (highest conviction); 0 = Wait (no path open yet). A strong overall signal can still read Wait here when the stock is well above its entry zones — that flags "good business, no entry edge right now," not a contradiction. Exits are graded by severity of what is live, not by a count: a hard stop is an Exit on its own.
Entry conviction: Wait0 of 3 groups met — no entry path open

Fundamental — not MET

Cheap and driver-supported — but knocked out tonight by the earnings-blackout sub-condition.
✅ Price $132.03 < fair value ~$152
⛔ No earnings within 7 days
✅ Underlying-Driver score ≥ 50 (66)

Technical — not MET

Coiled at the 200-DMA; no volume reclaim and not at support with a higher low.
⛔ Daily close > 50-DMA ($130) on >1.5× volume (vol only 1.2×)
⛔ OR a tested bounce off $121-127 support with a higher low
✅ RSI 35-65 (50)
⛔ MACD histogram positive ≥2 days (currently slightly negative)

Catalyst — not MET

The catalyst is tonight — unresolved as of writing.
· Post-earnings move > +5% within 24h (Q2 lands tonight)
· Guidance raised or maintained
· Volume > 2× the 20-day average

Forecast: Fundamental re-opens the trading day after earnings (5 Aug) once the 7-day blackout clears — High confidence it is met again at/near current levels if the print is not a disaster. Technical needs either a >1.5×-volume reclaim of ~$130-132 or a bounce off $121-127 with a higher low — catalyst-dependent: tonight's print is the most likely trigger, in days not weeks. Catalyst group resolves tonight: if GILD gaps >+5% on raised guidance with 2× volume it fires and flips the Short to a confirmed BUY; a soft print keeps it shut. Net: no clean entry path is open pre-print — the Short is a deliberate WAIT.

Exit action: Holdno exit trigger is live — hold the position

Stop-Loss — not LIVE

⛔ Two daily closes below $121 (below the June swing low)

Thesis Invalidation — not LIVE

⛔ Full-year guidance cut (watch tonight)
⛔ IRA Medicare negotiation materially cuts HIV net pricing AND lenacapavir uptake stalls
⛔ Competitive: ViiV long-acting injectables take material HIV/PrEP share from Yeztugo

Profit-Target — not LIVE

⛔ Price into the $158-162 median target with RSI > 70 and no quality re-rating

Forecast: Stop unlikely in 4-6 weeks absent a negative earnings gap — $121 is ~8% below spot and below both the 50- and 200-DMA. The nearest risk trigger is tonight's guidance line: a cut would fire Thesis-Invalidation. Profit-target ($158+ with RSI>70) is not close.

Imagine you act at the current price of $132.03 · as of 4 Aug 2026

What if you bought now?

You'd be risking ~8% to the $121 stop (−15% to the $112 bear) to gain ~15% base / ~36% bull — but you'd be pressing the button hours before the numbers.
  • Risking: downside to the $121 stop (−8.4%) and the $112 bear (−15.2%); no entry rule is met — you'd be buying into a Q2 print tonight with neither a technical trigger nor a confirmed catalyst.
  • Gaining: base $152 (+15.1%) and bull $180 (+36.3%) you start capturing, plus a 2.4% dividend and ~5.7% FCF yield while you wait, and the free pipeline optionality (Yeztugo, oral-weekly HIV, HDV).
  • Read: for a Long-term holder the risk-reward is favourable and the dividend pays you to wait — a starter is defensible. For a Short-term trade, waiting for tonight's print materially improves the deal; there is no edge in front of a binary event.

What if you sold now?

You'd be giving up ~15% base upside + a growing 2.4% dividend to protect against a ~15% bear-case drawdown.
  • Giving up: base upside to $152 (+15%), the dividend and buyback, and the pipeline optionality — and you'd be selling below our ~$149-152 fair value.
  • Protecting: capital if tonight's print is soft and the $112 bear plays out. No exit rule is triggered right now — no stop, no thesis break, no profit-target. Mechanically this is a hold/accumulate zone, not a sell.
13

Position Sizing Context

Illustrative portfolio math (not advice) translating conviction into an allocation given risk-per-share and volatility.

Position sizing not computed — specify your portfolio allocation and role for sizing guidance.

14

Calibration Snapshot

Machine-readable snapshot of every score, level and signal, saved alongside the HTML so the next run can compute deltas.
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  "api_ticker": "GILD",
  "analysis_status": "on-going",
  "finder_ticker": "GILD",
  "finder_exchange": "\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 NASDAQ",
  "finder_section": "Health Care",
  "user_horizon": null,
  "user_allocation_pct": null,
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  "lifecycle_stage": "mature",
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  "signal_short": "HOLD",
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  "short_hold_reason": "technical_pending",
  "quality_score": 74,
  "quality_detail": {
    "industry_benchmark_name": "R&D efficiency + patent-cliff durability",
    "industry_benchmark_value": "Biktarvy LOE 2036; oncology R&D mixed",
    "industry_benchmark_score": 73,
    "moat_score": 66,
    "roic_percentile_vs_peers": 75,
    "capital_allocation": 62,
    "management_skin_in_game": 55
  },
  "valuation_score": 70,
  "valuation_detail": {
    "fcf_yield": 5.7,
    "implied_growth_rate": 2.5,
    "consensus_growth_rate": 9.0,
    "historical_valuation_decile": 6
  },
  "warranted_multiple": 19.5,
  "actual_multiple": 13.7,
  "val_multiple_basis": "FY27 consensus forward adjusted P/E (EPS ~$9.65)",
  "discount_rate_r": 9.25,
  "risk_free_10y": 4.75,
  "g_near": 7.0,
  "g_term": 3.0,
  "warranted_ratio": 0.7,
  "val_band": "attractive",
  "nonop_pct_of_net_income": 0,
  "clean_pe": 13.7,
  "clean_peg": 1.7,
  "timing_score": 61,
  "timing_detail": {
    "mtf_confluence": 66,
    "risk_reward_score": 58,
    "relative_strength_vs_spy": -1.5,
    "relative_strength_vs_sector": -2.0,
    "catalyst_clustering_score": 40,
    "dynamic_macro_weight": 0.1
  },
  "driver_score": 66,
  "driver_label": "Tailwind",
  "driver_commodity_trend": "n/a (non-commodity)",
  "economic_alignment_stance": "Neutral",
  "economic_alignment_conviction": 55,
  "economic_alignment_pressure": "Neutral",
  "economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
  "macro_report_date": "2026-07-30",
  "competitive_share_trajectory": "stable",
  "competitive_threat_level": "moderate",
  "overall_confidence": 42,
  "fair_value_est": 152,
  "stop_loss": 121,
  "target_price": 152,
  "scenario_base_target": 152,
  "scenario_bull_target": 180,
  "scenario_bear_target": 112,
  "analyst_consensus_target": 158.67,
  "analyst_target_high": 180,
  "analyst_target_low": 120,
  "analyst_target_upside_pct": 20.2,
  "analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
  "analyst_bullish_pct": 67.2,
  "analyst_coverage_count": 58,
  "fmp_rating": "B+",
  "fmp_overall_score": 3,
  "recent_upgrades_30d": 1,
  "recent_downgrades_30d": 1,
  "hard_gate_state": "caution",
  "short_entry_confirmed": false,
  "short_cap_reason": "Short base BUY capped to HOLD \u2014 earnings tonight knocks out the Fundamental group and neither Technical (no >1.5\u00d7 reclaim; not at support) nor Catalyst (print unresolved) is met. Buy on confirmation after the Q2 print / on a $121-127 higher-low bounce.",
  "entry_groups_met": 0,
  "entry_conviction": "Wait",
  "exit_groups_live": 0,
  "exit_action": "Hold",
  "gates_triggered": [
    "Earnings Event Risk (Q2 2026 report 4 Aug after close)"
  ],
  "do_not_buy_triggers": [],
  "next_update_date": "2026-08-05",
  "next_update_basis": "Q2 2026 earnings 2026-08-04 after close +1 trading day",
  "currency": "USD",
  "company": "Gilead Sciences, Inc."
}
15

Data Sources & Methodology

Audit trail of every data source: fully available (✓), fallback (⚠), or failed (✗), plus provenance-based confidence haircuts.
Data Source Status
✓
get_stock_snapshot / get_company_profile price ~$132.03, beta 0.34, mkt cap $164bn, ISIN US3755581036
✓
get_income_statement (6q) TTM rev ~$29.7bn, net inc ~$9.2bn; Q1'26 EPS $1.61 dil
✓
get_financial_ratios GM 79%, net margin 31%, P/E 17.8, FCF/EV ~5.7%, D/E 0.94
✓
get_price_target_consensus / _summary consensus $158.67; recent avg lower ($146-149) — recency-weighted
✓
get_grades_consensus / get_stock_grades 39 Buy/18 Hold/1 Sell; HSBC upgrade 6 Jul, Leerink downgrade 21 Jul
✓
get_ratings_snapshot B+ (3/5); ROE/ROA 5, D/E & P/B 1
✓
get_multi_timeframe_analysis / get_stock_prices 6-month daily + 5-TF; coiled at 200-DMA
⚠
get_earnings_calendar MCP returned empty; earnings date (4 Aug after close) confirmed via Gilead IR + web
✓
get_economic_series (DGS10) / get_economic_calendar 10-Y 4.75% (31 Jul); Fed held 3.75%, GDP 1.5%, PCE soft
✓
Macro-Economic state (30 Jul) / web (competitors, pipeline) XLV S/M/L = N/N/O; ViiV/AZN/BMS competitive read; IRA overhang
Impact on scores: Strong coverage. One partial: get_earnings_calendar returned empty, so the pivotal Q2 date was confirmed via Gilead Investor Relations and press (Tuesday 4 Aug 2026, after close) — high confidence. Overall confidence is nonetheless low (42) because timing confidence is gated to 40% by the earnings event landing tonight; the fundamental read (Quality/Valuation) is high-confidence, the timing read is deliberately not.
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.