Price +1.5% to $133.21. The headline change is a signal split: medium and long upgrade BUY → STRONG BUY, while the short-term signal is re-cut BUY → HOLD ('buy on confirmation'). Both moves come from the framework, not new fundamentals: (1) Economic Alignment upgraded from Neutral / sector-map to Trend-Following / Tailwind / watchlist-signal — the 20 Jul macro now names GILD individually as Outperform on all three horizons and 'the cleanest winner of the defensive rotation'; paired with the pipeline driver (67, ≥ the amplification bar) this amplifies the medium/long BUY to STRONG BUY. (2) The short-horizon technical-confirmation cap fires — the tape is pulling back from the $140 test with no volume-backed reclaim, so a short BUY is not yet earned.
Gilead Sciences is a large-cap biopharmaceutical company built on the world's leading HIV franchise — Biktarvy is the single best-selling HIV therapy globally, and the twice-yearly injectable lenacapavir (Yeztugo, approved 2025) is a genuinely differentiated prevention (PrEP) agent. Beyond HIV, Gilead sells antivirals for hepatitis and COVID (Veklury), a growing oncology and cell-therapy business (Kite's Yescarta/Tecartus CAR-T, Trodelvy in breast cancer), and liver-disease drugs (Livdelzi in primary biliary cholangitis). Its distinctive edge is an unusually durable core: the flagship HIV patents run to 2036, so — unlike most large pharma — it faces no meaningful near-term patent cliff, while ~79% gross margins and heavy free-cash generation fund a fast-diversifying pipeline and 11 straight years of dividend increases. For a reader, think of it as a defensive, cash-rich antiviral leader trying to prove it is more than an HIV company.
Lifecycle & sector: Mature large-cap pharma (Drug Manufacturers — General). Metric lens: R&D efficiency, patent-cliff exposure, margins, FCF, ROIC — not growth multiples.
| Sub-signal | Value | Benchmark | Score | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue trajectory | +4.4% YoY (Q1'26 $6.96B) | Pharma median ~5% | 60 | Modest but re-accelerating off a flat 2024 |
| Profitability | Net 31% · Op 37.9% · Gross 79.4% | Pharma net ~20-25% | 82 | Top-decile margins |
| Cash generation | FCF/sh $8.24 · FCF conv >100% | >80% strong | 82 | Cash engine; harder to fake than EPS |
| Balance sheet | NetDebt/EBITDA ~1.0x · IntCov 11.3x · CR 1.97 | <2.0x healthy | 70 | D/E 0.94 elevated but well-covered |
Moat score: 66/100.
| Rival | Threat type | Share trajectory | Moat-erosion vector |
|---|---|---|---|
| ViiV (GSK / Pfizer) — cabotegravir (Cabenuva/Apretude) | Direct HIV rival, long-acting injectables | Gilead stable–gaining | Long-acting competition, but lenacapavir (twice-yearly) is best-in-class — defends switching costs |
| BMS / Novartis — CAR-T (Breyanzi, Abecma, Kymriah) | Cell-therapy substitution vs Kite (Yescarta/Tecartus) | Stable | Class competition; Kite retains a manufacturing/access edge |
| AstraZeneca / Daiichi — Enhertu, Dato-DXd | ADC rival to Trodelvy in breast/lung | Gilead losing in lung | Trodelvy lost the Keytruda lung combo (Jun'26); breast still holds — the live erosion vector |
Net effect on moat: → Switching Costs held at 70 (HIV lock-in intact), Cost Advantage 65; the oncology loss is real but not core, so overall threat stays moderate.
| Lens | Value | Reference | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warranted-multiple anchor (40%) | 13.7× vs 20.2× (0.68) | Attractive ≤ 0.80 | ~80 |
| Sector median P/E (20%) | 13.7× | Pharma ~15-16× | ~70 |
| Own 5-yr decile (15%) | fwd P/E ~13.7× | own 10-14× range → decile ~6 | ~50 |
| PEG (10%) | ~13.7× / ~8% g | PEG ~1.7 | ~50 |
| Analyst consensus (15%) | +19.6% to $159.28 | 10-20% below → attractive | ~70 |
| Street | Value |
|---|---|
| Consensus target | $159.28 (+19.6%) |
| Median / High / Low | $162.5 / $180 / $120 |
| Recent-month avg target | $142 (softer than the full-year consensus — targets have drifted down as the stock recovered) |
| Grades (58 firms) | 40 Buy · 17 Hold · 1 Sell → 69% bullish; 2 upgrades (HSBC, Maxim), 0 downgrades in 60d |
| FMP health rating | B+ (3/5): ROE 5, ROA 5, DCF 4; drags = D/E 1, P/E 2, P/B 1 (buyback-driven low book) |
The recent-month target softening ($142 vs $159 full-year) is the honest caveat — the easy upside to consensus has partly closed as the stock rallied off the June low; the anchor and FCF yield, not the target, carry the Attractive read.
Gilead's dominant company-specific external force is the durability and productivity of its drug pipeline / patent estate — scored here on its own merits, deliberately separate from the defensive-rotation macro theme (which is scored in Economic Alignment, §6, so the two amplification inputs stay independent).
| Horizon | Read | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Historical (25%) | 62 | Revenue re-accelerated to +4% off a flat 2024; lenacapavir won approval (2025) |
| Current (50%) | 68 | No patent cliff until 2036 (rare); Biktarvy leadership intact; Yeztugo PrEP launched and ramping. Net of the Trodelvy lung-cancer failure and the IRA drug-pricing overhang |
| Forward (25%) | 70 | Four 2026 launches (lenacapavir PrEP scale-up, Livdelzi, anito-cel, hep-D); positive Livdelzi Phase-3 |
Driver score 0.25×62 + 0.50×68 + 0.25×70 = 67 → Tailwind. This clears the ≥65 amplification bar on pipeline grounds alone — so, paired with a Tailwind economy (§6), it is eligible to lift a base BUY to STRONG BUY (medium/long). It does not change the three fundamental pillar scores. Thesis-invalidation floor: a serious HIV franchise threat (a superior long-acting rival taking share, or an adverse IRA price ruling on Biktarvy/lenacapavir) is the level at which the whole case breaks.
The 20 Jul MacroDriver report names GILD explicitly in its Economic Watchlist Forecast as Outperform across all three horizons (short O / medium O / long O), inheriting Health Care (XLV) O/O/O. In the 'Stagflation-lite — energy-supply-shock' regime, GILD is called out as 'the cleanest winner of the higher-for-longer + oil-shock defensive rotation' — rate-insensitive (beta 0.34), tariff-insulated, with real+fast money flowing into XLV across all horizons. Pressure = Tailwind; a long entry is Trend-Following. This is the amplification input: paired with the pipeline driver (67), it enabled a BUY → STRONG BUY on the medium and long horizons. NOTE this is a genuine upgrade from the prior report's Neutral / sector-map read — GILD was not individually O/O/O then. Caveat: the macro confidence is only Low-Medium and the regime lead is narrow/contested, so the tailwind is real but not high-conviction.
Source: watchlist-signal · Macro report 2026-07-20
| Signal | Read |
|---|---|
| MTF confluence | Bullish (~66) — monthly/weekly/daily uptrend; hourly weakening; 15-min downtrend |
| Daily momentum | RSI 56.6, MACD histogram +0.65 (positive). Weekly RSI 52, Monthly 62.9 |
| Rel. strength vs SPY | 1-mo +7pp (leader); 3-mo −4pp (laggard) — recent defensive-rotation leadership, still repairing the Feb→Jun drawdown |
| Rel. strength vs XLV | 1-mo ~in line (+1pp); 3-mo −9pp — lagged the sector's June surge |
| Macro overlay (wt 0.10) | Favourable-ish: Fed on hold, VIX 18.8 (neutral), curve +0.39 steepening, XLV rotation IN |
| Sentiment (wt 0.20) | Positive: 2 upgrades / 0 downgrades in 60d; bullish press on the launch pipeline |
| Catalyst (wt 0.20) | Calm window — Q2 earnings ~6 Aug is the next stock-specific event (>2 weeks out) |
Composite ≈ 0.30×66 (MTF) + 0.20×60 (risk-reward) + 0.10×65 + 0.20×65 + 0.20×65 = 64. Constructive trend, but the short-term tape is pulling back and volume isn't confirming a breakout — hence the short-horizon technical-confirmation cap below.
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | FOMC Rate Decision (Warsh) | High | Hold 3.50-3.75% | 3.50-3.75% | ⚠️ Low | Pharma is rate-insensitive (beta 0.34) — second-order; a hawkish surprise mildly supports the defensive bid |
| 2026-07-30 | US Q2 GDP (Advance) | High | ~2.0% ann. | — | ⚠️ Low | Defensives outperform if growth disappoints |
| 2026-07-31 | US Core PCE (Jun) | High | +0.2% MoM | — | ⚠️ Low | Low direct sensitivity; matters only via the rate path |
| 2026-08-06 | GILD Q2 2026 Earnings (est.) | High | — | — | ✅ Yes | The key stock-specific catalyst — HIV franchise + launch ramp; calendar unconfirmed |
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul) | 54.4 | 51.0 | +6.7% above | Risk-on tilt — mild headwind to pure defensives |
| 2026-07-17 | Import Prices YoY (Jun) | 7.1% | 6.2% | +14.5% above | Firmer goods inflation — supports higher-for-longer, indirectly the defensive rotation |
| 2026-07-17 | Housing Starts (Jun) | 1.427M | 1.31M | +8.9% above | Growth-resilient signal — not GILD-specific |
GILD carries LOW macro sensitivity — the FOMC/GDP/PCE cluster into month-end matters only second-hand, and generally the higher-for-longer + oil-shock backdrop favours the defensive rotation GILD sits in. The one event that actually moves the stock is its own Q2 print (~6 Aug, unconfirmed), which falls just outside the 14-day window today. No high-impact GILD-relevant release inside 3 trading days, so no WAIT-for-event override.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend ↑ | Bullish | 62.9 | + (hist -0.3) | S: 72.9 R: 157.3 | Res breakout | 0.6x |
| Weekly | Uptrend ↑ | Bullish | 52.2 | flat (hist -0.5) | S: 116.9 R: 127.4/137.5 | Res breakout | 0.1x |
| Daily | Uptrend ↑ | Bullish | 56.6 | + rising (hist +0.65) | S: 127.1 R: 136.8/137.7 | Res breakout | 0.8x |
| Hourly | Weakening → | Neutral | 33.6 | - (hist -0.30) | S: 131.0 R: 135.5 | — | — |
| 15-min | Downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 35.1 | - (hist -0.04) | S: 132.1 R: 133.9 | Support b'down | — |
| Confluence: Bullish · MTF Score 66 | |||||||
The three timeframes that matter for a position — monthly, weekly, daily — are all in uptrends, with price holding above the daily 50- and 200-day averages and a rising daily MACD. The hourly and 15-min have rolled over, consistent with a normal pullback from the $140.6 test on 16 Jul rather than a trend change. The setup a patient buyer wants is either a volume-backed reclaim of $137-138 or a pullback into the $127-130 support shelf with a higher low — neither is present yet, which is exactly why the short-term signal is capped to 'buy on confirmation.'
GILD 6-month daily close. Recovered from the June $121 low; pulling back from the $140.6 test on 16 Jul into the $130-133 zone above the 50/200-day averages.
Lenacapavir PrEP (Yeztugo) scales into a multi-billion prevention franchise; Livdelzi and anito-cel launches beat; the defensive bid persists through a higher-for-longer H2. Re-rates toward ~17-18× FY27 adjusted EPS (~$10.5). Trigger: a strong Q2 launch-ramp print + PrEP uptake data.
HIV franchise steady, launch ramp on track, multiple holds ~15× FY27 EPS. ~+19% price + 2.4% dividend over 12 months; anchored to the $162.5 median target. The probability-weighted centre of gravity.
Further oncology setbacks after the Trodelvy lung-cancer failure, an adverse IRA drug-pricing ruling on the HIV mix, and/or a risk-on reversal (oil de-escalation) that unwinds the defensive rotation; multiple compresses to ~11× FY27 toward the June-recovery / 52-week-low zone. Note: GILD does NOT inherit the macro report's armed 'AI-concentration / earnings-quality unwind' tail — beta 0.34, no AI-capex or non-operating-gains exposure — so its bear is idiosyncratic, not an index-unwind leg. Competitive trigger: a ViiV long-acting rival takes visible HIV share.
Forecast: Fundamental group ALREADY MET (cheap + driver tailwind). Technical group: MODERATE confidence within ~1-3 weeks — either a volume-backed reclaim of the $137-138 shelf (needs a >1.5×-volume up-day; at the current ~0.8× pace this is catalyst-dependent, likely the Q2 print) OR a pullback into $127-130 that holds with a higher low (LOW-MODERATE at the current trajectory). Catalyst group: date-dependent on Q2 earnings ~6 Aug — a >+5% guidance-raise reaction would confirm it in one session. Until one of these fires, the short signal stays 'buy on confirmation.'
Forecast: Stop-loss UNLIKELY in the next 4-6 weeks — $126 is ~5% below and beneath both the 50- and 200-day averages; it would take a Q2 miss or a sector-wide risk-off. Profit-target UNLIKELY near-term — $162.5 is ~22% up. Thesis-invalidation LOW — no guidance or driver deterioration in view; the live watch item is HIV competitive/IRA news.
What you're risking: the stock is mid-range, not at support, and the Technical entry isn't confirmed — buying today means accepting a possible pullback into $127-130 and the path-risk of the ~6 Aug Q2 print. Downside to the hard stop is ~5%; the full bear case is ~−16%.
What you're gaining: an Attractive-band multiple (0.68× warranted), a ~6% FCF yield, a growing dividend, and several free pipeline call options (lenacapavir PrEP, Livdelzi, anito-cel) — all captured immediately. Base+bull (80% weight) sit above today's price.
Read: a fair place to start a position (Half-Size, Fundamental path), but waiting for the $127-130 pullback or a volume-backed reclaim materially improves the entry — which is why the short signal is HOLD/'buy on confirmation,' not BUY.
What you'd give up: the $158 base target (+19%), the pipeline optionality, and income — while selling a name trading below fair value.
What you'd protect: capital if the bear plays out — but no exit rule is live right now (no stop hit, no thesis break, price below target), so there is no mechanical reason to sell.
Read: this is a hold/accumulate zone, not a sell.
Position sizing not computed — specify your portfolio allocation and role for sizing guidance.
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"ticker": "GILD",
"date": "2026-07-20",
"version": "v6",
"exchange": "NASDAQ",
"exchange_ticker": "NASDAQ:GILD",
"isin": "US3755581036",
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"finder_exchange": "\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 NASDAQ",
"finder_section": "Health Care",
"user_horizon": null,
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"quality_score": 74,
"quality_detail": {
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"industry_benchmark_value": "Biktarvy LOE 2036; no near-term cliff",
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"roic_percentile_vs_peers": 75,
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},
"valuation_score": 72,
"valuation_detail": {
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},
"warranted_multiple": 20.2,
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"val_multiple_basis": "FY27 consensus forward adjusted P/E (EPS $9.75)",
"discount_rate_r": 9.05,
"risk_free_10y": 4.55,
"g_near": 7.0,
"g_term": 3.0,
"warranted_ratio": 0.68,
"val_band": "attractive",
"nonop_pct_of_net_income": 0,
"clean_pe": 13.7,
"clean_peg": 1.7,
"timing_score": 64,
"timing_detail": {
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"risk_reward_score": 60,
"relative_strength_vs_spy": 1.5,
"relative_strength_vs_sector": -3.9,
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},
"driver_score": 67,
"driver_label": "Tailwind",
"driver_commodity_trend": "n/a (non-commodity)",
"economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 68,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Tailwind",
"economic_alignment_source": "watchlist-signal",
"macro_report_date": "2026-07-20",
"competitive_share_trajectory": "stable",
"competitive_threat_level": "moderate",
"overall_confidence": 68,
"fair_value_est": 158,
"stop_loss": 126,
"target_price": 158,
"scenario_base_target": 158,
"scenario_bull_target": 185,
"scenario_bear_target": 112,
"analyst_consensus_target": 159.28,
"analyst_target_high": 180,
"analyst_target_low": 120,
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 19.6,
"analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
"analyst_bullish_pct": 69.0,
"analyst_coverage_count": 58,
"fmp_rating": "B+",
"fmp_overall_score": 3,
"recent_upgrades_30d": 1,
"recent_downgrades_30d": 0,
"hard_gate_state": "clear",
"short_entry_confirmed": false,
"short_cap_reason": "Base short BUY capped to HOLD \u2014 neither Technical (no >1.5x-volume reclaim; not at support) nor Catalyst entry group met; buy on confirmation.",
"entry_groups_met": 1,
"entry_conviction": "Half-Size",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"gates_triggered": [],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"next_update_date": "2026-08-03",
"next_update_basis": "default +14d; Q2 earnings ~6 Aug (est, unconfirmed) just outside 14d window \u2014 +14d refresh runs first",
"currency": "USD",
"company": "Gilead Sciences, Inc."
}