GE Vernova is the power-and-energy company spun out of General Electric in April 2024. It designs and manufactures the physical machinery that generates and moves electricity, across three segments: Power (heavy-duty gas turbines, plus nuclear, hydro and steam) — its profit engine and the direct beneficiary of AI-data-centre electricity demand; Electrification (grid transformers, switchgear, power-conversion and storage) — the fastest-growing, highest-margin-trajectory segment; and Wind (onshore and offshore turbines) — a structurally loss-making laggard being rationalised. Its edge is scale and installed base: roughly a quarter of the world's electricity runs through GE-designed turbines, giving it a decades-long, high-margin services annuity on ~7,000 gas turbines and a seat in the three-player heavy-duty-turbine oligopoly (with Siemens Energy and Mitsubishi Power). Despite the FMP "Renewable Utilities" label, GEV is an industrial equipment manufacturer, not a rate-regulated utility — it sells hardware and long-term service contracts, it does not earn a regulated return on a rate base.
Lifecycle: Growth (recently profitable). Two years public, revenue ~$39.4B TTM growing high-single-digit with orders up ~71% y/y in Q1'26 and backlog at $163B (from $116B at spin) — the $200B backlog target was just pulled forward a year to 2027. The business is inflecting from break-even to structural profitability as Power and Electrification margins expand and Wind losses narrow.
| Sub-signal | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue trajectory | TTM ~$39.4B; FY25 ~$38.1B (+9%); orders +71% y/y, equipment backlog +80% since spin | 80 |
| Profitability (trajectory) | Reported op. margin still thin (~4% TTM, depressed by Wind + separation costs) BUT inflecting hard — Power/Electrification adj. EBITDA margins expanding, guidance raised after Q1 | 62 |
| Cash generation | Record FCF — TTM FCF ~$7.6B, FCF/share ~$28; capex-light (capex/rev ~4%) | 82 |
| Balance-sheet health | Net cash: debt/equity 0.21, debt/assets 3.8%, cash/share ~$38. Fortress sheet | 88 |
| Wind segment | Structurally loss-making, sub-scale vs Vestas/Siemens Gamesa — the quality drag; being rationalised | 35 |
| Arena | Direct rivals | GEV position & share trajectory |
|---|---|---|
| Heavy-duty gas turbines (the profit engine) | Siemens Energy, Mitsubishi Power | 3-player global oligopoly; GEV ~#1 installed base (~7,000 units). Capacity sold out into 2028+; slot-reservation deposits = pricing power & share holding/gaining |
| Grid & electrification | Eaton (ETN), Schneider, ABB, Hitachi Energy, Siemens Energy Grid; Vertiv (VRT) in DC power/thermal; Quanta (PWR) in build-out services | Crowded but supply-tight (transformers/Prolec GE); GEV competitive, roughly holding share in a rising tide |
| Wind | Vestas, Siemens Gamesa; Ørsted (developer demand) | Sub-scale & losing money; retreating/rationalising — the clear competitive soft spot |
Moat average ≈ 71. A wide, durable moat on the Power franchise (oligopoly + installed-base annuity), diluted by the value-destroying Wind segment. ROIC & capital allocation improving; net-cash sheet gives optionality. Business Quality 74.
| Input | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-free (10Y UST) | 4.48% | Macro report 2026-07-03 |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% | fixed global constant |
| Risk add-on | +0.0% | Business Quality ≥ 65 |
| Discount rate r | 9.0% | 4.48 + 4.5 + 0.0 |
| g_near (yrs 1-5) | 12% | Industrials bucket is 10%; lifted toward the 15% ceiling for the $163B backlog visibility (flagged). 0.75× consensus (~23%) is hard-capped away |
| g_term | 3% | long-run nominal GDP |
| Warranted P/E | 23x | two-stage DCF = 25.1x raw, capped at the Industrials 23x guardrail |
| Actual clean fwd P/E | ~45x | $1,113 ÷ 2027 consensus EPS $24.48 (NTM ~60x) |
| actual ÷ warranted | ≈ 2.0 | Expensive band (≥1.40) — and actual ≥ guardrail line → double-confirmed |
Implied-growth read: at $1,113 the market is pricing roughly a decade of ~20%+ compounding held at a premium multiple. Our disciplined estimate is ~12% durable — so the price embeds materially more growth than we're willing to underwrite. The business could grow into it; you're just not being paid to take that risk today.
Every lens converges: the business is priced for perfection. Valuation 32 — Expensive → Gate 3 → HOLD.
GEV sits at the single tightest bottleneck of the AI build-out: power. Goldman pegs ~$765B of AI infrastructure spend this year; hyperscaler capex keeps ratcheting up (Oracle to $90-95B FY27, Alphabet's $80B AI raise), and electricity — not chips — is increasingly the gating constraint. GEV supplies the gas turbines, grid transformers and electrical balance-of-plant that new data-centre load requires, plus a nuclear/SMR option (BWRX-300 with Hitachi; a probable pick in the DoE's $17.5B AP1000 program for steam turbines/generators). Recent proof points: the Chevron–Microsoft Project Kilby 2.67GW Texas plant (GEV supplying most turbines + electrical infra), Crusoe, and slot-reservation agreements extending toward 2031.
| Horizon | Driver read | Contribution |
|---|---|---|
| Short (0-4w) | News-flow red-hot (stock +21% in June on hyperscaler capex headlines) — but that's now the risk cuts both ways | Strong + |
| Medium (1-6m) | Backlog conversion + margin ramp are visible and guided; $200B backlog pulled into 2027 | Strong + |
| Long (6-18m+) | Multi-year electrification + reshoring + nuclear-restart supercycle; structural, not a fad | Strong + |
Amplification note: at 86 this is a strong, durable tailwind that would normally lift a BUY to STRONG BUY. It does not apply here — the base signal is HOLD (Valuation Ceiling), and HOLD never amplifies. The driver is precisely why the stock is expensive; it does not make the price attractive.
Regime Contested (Soft Landing / Stagflation co-lead 30/30, Reaccel 27), conf Low-Med. Industrials (XLI) reads Outperform / Outperform / STRONG-Outperform across Short/Medium/Long, strengthening into the Long horizon (SO) — a genuine macro tailwind. A long entry here is Trend-Following (buying strength the macro supports), conviction moderate-to-high. The macro helps the business, but cannot rescue the entry price.
Source: sector-map · Macro report 2026-07-03
| Timing input | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Trend / structure | Confirmed uptrend on monthly/weekly/daily, well above 200-DMA ($795) | 78 |
| Overbought risk | Monthly RSI ~78; ~6% under ATH $1,182 after +21% June — extended | 30 |
| Relative strength | ~doubled in 5 months; vastly outperforming SPY and XLI — but that IS the crowding risk | 55 |
| Risk-reward for entry | ~+9% to base vs ~-29% to structural stop — poor | 32 |
| Sentiment / catalyst | News-flow euphoric (momentum-ETF darling); Q2 (~23 Jul) is a two-sided event at ~45x | 50 |
The trend is real and up, which keeps this from scoring low — but there is no low-risk entry edge at the top of a parabolic range into an earnings print. Timing 45: don't chase; wait for a pullback to support or a post-Q2 reset.
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | US CPI (Jun) | High | — | — | Indirect | Rates path → discount-rate lever on long-duration growth multiples like GEV |
| 2026-07-23 | GEV Q2 2026 earnings | High | EPS ~ (clean) ~$1.7 | Q1 clean ~$0.55 | DIRECT | Order intake, backlog vs $200B/2027 track, Power/Electrification margin ramp — the next re-rating pivot |
| 2026-07-29 | FOMC decision | High | — | — | Indirect | Any hawkish surprise lifts r and compresses rich growth multiples |
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | DoE nuclear loan program | $17.5B / AP1000 | — | Positive | GEV a likely turbine/generator supplier |
| 2026-06-22 | Chevron–MSFT Project Kilby | 2.67GW / $7B | — | Positive | GEV supplies most turbines + electrical infra |
The binary near-term event is Q2 earnings (~23 Jul). With the stock priced for perfection, the risk is asymmetric into the print — a strong beat is largely expected, while any order/margin wobble de-rates a ~45x multiple hard. Macro rate events matter as the discount-rate lever.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend | ↑ | 77.9 | n/a | R 1182 / S 530 | Resistance breakout | 0.1x |
| Weekly | Uptrend | ↑ | 65.1 | + (flattening) | R 1182 / S 895 | Resistance breakout | 0.9x |
| Daily | Strong uptrend | ↑ | 57.2 | + (14.0 hist) | R 1182 / S 1023, 200DMA 795 | Resistance breakout | 0.7x |
| Hourly | Weakening | → | 47.3 | - | R 1178 / S 1087 | — | 0.0x |
| 15-min | Recovering | → | 56.4 | + | R 1154 / S 1087 | — | 0.0x |
| Confluence: Strongly bullish trend, but stretched · MTF Score 68 | |||||||
Every higher timeframe is in a confirmed uptrend well above the 200-DMA ($795) — the trend is unambiguously up. But monthly RSI ~78 is overbought and price sits ~6% under the all-time high ($1,182) after a +21% June. Intraday momentum is rolling over. This is a strong trend you do not chase at the top of its range: the technicals confirm the direction, not the entry.
6-month daily close (Jan-Jul 2026). GEV doubled off ~$620 in Jan to a $1,182 ATH, gapping up post-Q1 earnings (21 Apr) and again on June hyperscaler-capex news. SMA50 (orange) rising; price extended well above the 200-DMA ($795, blue) — the structural stop/thesis line.
AI-capex supercycle runs uninterrupted; backlog hits $200B in 2027; Power/Electrification margins beat and Wind losses fade; the market keeps paying a premium multiple on a raised earnings base. Roughly +35%.
Backlog converts on plan, margins ramp as guided, EPS grows into the multiple while the P/E slowly normalises. Stock compounds mid-single-digit toward the analyst median ($1,208). A HOLD that grows into fair value rather than re-rating higher.
Hyperscaler AI-capex digestion / SRA slippage / a gas-turbine order pause; the ~45x multiple de-rates toward ~25-30x and the stock reverts to its 200-DMA (~$795). Roughly -30%. This is the entry you actually want.
Probability-weighted 12-mo fair value ≈ $1,173 (0.25×1500 + 0.50×1210 + 0.25×780) — essentially the current price. The distribution is symmetric-to-negative from here: ~+35% up vs ~-30% down with equal 25% tails, and the base case only compounds single digits. That is the mathematical signature of a HOLD: you are paid roughly fairly for the risk, with no margin of safety.
Forecast: No entry path is open. A Fundamental entry needs a ~30% pullback toward the 200-DMA (~$795) to reach fair value — not forecastable near-term. A Technical entry could open on a pullback to $1,023 support with monthly RSI cooling below 70. The cleanest realistic setup is a post-Q2 (~23 Jul) reset. Until then: Wait.
Forecast: Not applicable as a new position (verdict is HOLD/Wait, not owned). For an existing holder: no exit trigger is live — trend and thesis intact; the discipline is to trim into a $1,500 bull spike, not to chase adds here.
Position sizing not computed — no portfolio allocation or role was specified for this finder-promoted name. If sizing is needed, provide your intended allocation. Note: at HOLD/Wait the framework suggests no new position until an entry path opens.
{
"ticker": "GEV",
"exchange_ticker": "NYSE:GEV",
"isin": "US36828A1016",
"api_ticker": "GEV",
"company": "GE Vernova Inc.",
"analysis_status": "on-going",
"status_badge": "Starting",
"finder_ticker": "GEV",
"finder_exchange": "\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 NYSE",
"finder_section": "Industrials",
"sector": "Industrials",
"lifecycle": "Growth (recently profitable)",
"user_horizon": null,
"user_allocation_pct": null,
"portfolio_role": null,
"date": "2026-07-03",
"version": "v6",
"macro_report_date": "2026-07-03",
"price_at_rating": 1113.11,
"signals": {
"short": "HOLD",
"medium": "HOLD",
"long": "HOLD"
},
"scores": {
"quality": 74,
"valuation": 32,
"timing": 45,
"drivers": 86,
"econ_alignment": 72
},
"warranted_multiple": 23.0,
"actual_multiple": 45.5,
"val_multiple_basis": "clean forward P/E (2027 consensus EPS $24.48; NTM ~60x); guardrail = Industrials 23x",
"discount_rate_r": 0.09,
"risk_free_10y": 0.0448,
"g_near": 0.12,
"g_term": 0.03,
"warranted_ratio": 1.98,
"val_band": "expensive",
"gate3_valuation_ceiling": "triggered",
"earnings_quality_flag": "reported EPS inflated by non-operating gains; scored on clean/forward earnings",
"competitive_rivals": [
"Siemens Energy",
"Mitsubishi Power",
"Eaton (ETN)",
"Vertiv (VRT)",
"Quanta (PWR)",
"Schneider",
"ABB",
"Hitachi Energy",
"Vestas",
"Siemens Gamesa"
],
"competitive_share_trajectory": "gaining/holding in gas-turbine oligopoly (sold-out capacity); competitive in grid/electrification; losing & loss-making in Wind",
"economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Tailwind",
"economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 72,
"entry_groups_met": 0,
"entry_conviction": "Wait",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"scenario_base_target": 1210,
"scenario_bull_target": 1500,
"scenario_bear_target": 780,
"fair_value": 1210,
"stop": 795,
"next_update_date": "2026-07-23",
"next_update_basis": "GEV Q2 2026 earnings (~23 Jul)"
}
First report on GEV — finder-promoted to fill the Industrials × US grid cell. Verdict HOLD across all three horizons: the Valuation Ceiling (Gate 3) caps a strong business with a powerful driver because it trades at ~2× its warranted multiple. Watch for a post-Q2 (~23 Jul) reset.