DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
DLocal Limited
DLocal is an emerging-markets payments platform — a single technology 'rail' that lets global merchants (Amazon, Microsoft, Shopify, Spotify and the like) collect and disburse money across Latin America, Africa and Asia through one integration, handling hundreds of local payment methods, currencies and regulations they could not easily reach themselves. Its core business is taking a small fee (a 'take rate') on the total payment volume that flows across its network, so it grows as cross-border digital commerce grows in the developing world. What sets it apart is that one-API, one-contract reach into dozens of hard, fragmented markets, a rare combination of hyper-growth and real profitability (it generates strong free cash flow and now returns capital), and asset-light economics. For a reader: think of it as the 'Stripe/Adyen of emerging markets' — a high-growth, cash-generative payments toll-road whose main tension is fee pressure as it wins very large clients.
| Horizon | Signal | Composite Score | Confidence | Key Driver |
|---|
| Short-term (1–3 mo) | BUY | 63 | 40% | confirmed uptrend + cheap — but Aug-13 earnings is the risk |
| Medium-term (6–12 mo) | BUY | 70 | 55% | high growth at a low multiple (fwd P/E 13, PEG 0.85) |
| Long-term (3–5 yr) | BUY | 72 | 60% | secular EM-payments compounder, ~9% FCF yield |
Next update: 2026-08-14 — Q2 2026 earnings 2026-08-13 +1 trading day
1
Five-Pillar Scorecard
Five independent scores — each 0–100 with its own confidence. The three fundamental pillars (Quality / Valuation / Timing) set the base BUY/HOLD/SELL via the Decision Matrix; the two context pillars (Underlying Drivers, Economic Alignment) then amplify a BUY to STRONG BUY or a SELL to STRONG SELL when both corroborate.
Business Quality
72
high — hyper-growth + real FCF
conf 70%
Valuation Attractiveness
78
attractive (fwd P/E 13, ~9% FCF yield)
conf 70%
Entry/Exit Timing
63
confirmed uptrend, earnings-gated
conf 40%
Underlying Drivers
62
Neutral–Tailwind (EM payments)
conf 60%
Economic Alignment
55
Neutral
conf 55%
2
Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status
Binary safety checks — any TRIGGERED gate is a hard cap regardless of the scores above; CAUTION gates are sizing notes.
✅Financial Distress
$913M cash vs $110M debt, ~9% FCF yield, interest coverage 8×. Pristine.
⚠️Earnings Event
Q2 2026 earnings on 13 Aug (13 days) — the last two prints gapped on the take-rate question despite beats. Timing confidence capped; size for the event.
✅Valuation Ceiling
Forward P/E 13.4 and ~9% FCF yield for a +55% grower — nowhere near expensive; well below the sector guardrail.
✅Dilution / Accounting
Share count roughly flat with a US$300M buyback running; earnings are clean (non-operating is a small FX drag, not a boost). A 10b5-1 director sale is pre-planned, not a red flag.
⚠️EM / FX Risk
Emerging-market FX and regulatory exposure is inherent — the recent take-rate slip is partly enterprise mix, partly FX. A position-sizing consideration, not a gate.
Net gate read: no BUY-blocking gate. The caution flags are the 13 Aug earnings (binary near-term risk) and inherent EM/FX exposure — both size-and-timing considerations. No Do-Not-Buy trigger fires.
3
Pillar Detail: Business Quality
A deep dive into the Quality score: business economics, moat, ROIC and the industry benchmark.
Business Quality — Pillar Score
A rare hyper-growth-plus-profitability payments compounder — the one blemish is fee (take-rate) compression as it onboards very large clients.
Lifecycle: high-growth, now profitable (Fintech / EM Payments). Scored on the EM-payments lens — total payment volume (TPV) growth, take-rate stability, FCF conversion — not on bank metrics.
| Sub-signal | Read | Score |
|---|
| TPV growth | Q1: US$14.1B, +73% YoY — record volume | 90 |
| Revenue growth | +55% YoY (US$335.9M) — record gross profit US$119M | 85 |
| Take-rate / margin | Gross margin 39%→35% YoY; net take-rate slipping on enterprise mix | 45 |
| Cash generation | FCF US$396M, ~95% FCF/OCF conversion; $913M cash | 88 |
| Profitability / returns | Net margin 16%, ROE 35%; FY26 op-profit guide +27.5–32.5% | 80 |
| Capital return / alignment | US$300M buyback + new dividend; founder retains large Class-B stake | 68 |
Industry benchmark — TPV growth + take-rate stability: TPV +73% is elite; the take-rate slip is the offset. Net benchmark 72 — strong growth, watch the margin.
Switching costs
72
One-API integration into dozens of markets, deep merchant embedding
Network / scale
62
More merchants + methods = more useful; scale in local rails
Cost advantage
60
Asset-light, single platform across fragmented EM regulation
Pricing power
45
Eroding — large clients are winning fee concessions (the take-rate story)
Competitive Environment. DLocal competes with global processors expanding into emerging markets and with local/regional acquirers. The live pressure is price, not displacement — its largest merchants have the leverage to negotiate lower take-rates, which is exactly what is compressing the margin.
| Competitor | Threat type | Trajectory | Erosion vector |
|---|
| Adyen / Stripe / Global processors | Direct rival moving into EM | Stable | Compete on breadth; DLocal's local-rail depth still differentiates |
| Very large merchant clients | Buyer power on fees | Losing (on price) | Enterprise clients negotiate lower take-rates → the margin compression |
| Flywire and EM-payments peers | Growth competitor | Gaining vs peers | DLocal grows faster with a lower sales multiple (per recent peer comparisons) |
→ Net effect: Pricing Power trimmed to 45 on the enterprise-fee pressure; the switching-cost and reach moat stays intact. Competitive threat level: moderate (price, not share).
4
Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness
Sector-appropriate multiples, FCF yield, reverse-DCF implied growth, embedded optionality, and the analyst-consensus cross-check.
Valuation Attractiveness — Pillar Score
Cheap on every cash-based lens for a business still compounding volume at +70% — the market is pricing the take-rate worry, not the growth.
| Metric | Value | Read |
|---|
| Forward P/E | 13.4× | Low for +55% revenue growth |
| PEG (forward) | ~0.74 | Well below 1 — growth is under-priced |
| FCF yield | ~9% | Very attractive — US$396M FCF on a US$4.5B cap |
| EV/Revenue | ~2.7× | Modest for the growth/margin profile |
| Analyst target | $18.05 mean (range $14.5–21) | ~+19% to mean; recent targets rising ($20 last month) |
Warranted-multiple read: haircutting the +55% growth to a disciplined ~15% secular cap at a ~10% discount rate warrants ~28–33× earnings; DLocal trades at ~13× forward — roughly 0.45× its warranted multiple, deep in the Attractive band, and far below the fintech guardrail line. FMP health rating A−.
Embedded optionality: the US$300M buyback shrinks the base at a low price; H2-2026 operating-leverage recovery (guided) if the investment cycle moderates; and new-market / new-merchant expansion not in current numbers. The bear case is take-rate compression continuing — which is why the discount exists.
Analyst consensus: Buy (9 Buy / 3 Hold / 1 Sell), target mean $18.05 — but note 3 Holds + 1 Sell reflect the take-rate debate, so it is not unanimous.
5
Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers
The dominant external force the stock is tethered to, scored 0–100. A context pillar: it does not change the base signal — it feeds amplification (tailwind ≥65 can lift BUY→STRONG BUY; headwind ≤35 can push SELL→STRONG SELL).
DLocal earns a fee on payment volume, so its driver is the growth of emerging-market digital commerce (structurally strong) net of take-rate compression and EM FX (the near-term drag).
| Horizon | Read |
|---|
| Historical | TPV compounding +70%+; secular EM cross-border growth intact |
| Current | Volume booming (+73%) but net take-rate slipping on enterprise mix + FX — a mixed driver right now |
| Forward | Guided operating-leverage recovery in H2; EM FX and tariff-driven EM risk-off are the swing |
Driver 62 — Neutral band. The structural volume tailwind is real, but the take-rate/FX drag holds it below the ≥65 amplification threshold, so it does not lift the base BUY to STRONG BUY this run (it did previously — the downgrade of the long signal reflects this).
6
Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment
How the current economic climate sits relative to this stock, read from the latest Macro-Economic report. Classifies the macro pressure (Tailwind / Neutral / Headwind) — the second amplification input — and frames a long entry as Trend-Following or Contrarian with a 0–100 conviction.
The 30 Jul MacroDriver has EM Equities Underperform short/medium (Aug-1 tariff wall + higher-for-longer USD) turning to Outperform long, and Financials Neutral. For an EM-exposed payments name that is a Neutral near-term macro pressure — the recent EEM bounce and softer dollar are a mild positive, but the tariff/EM risk-off caps it. Neutral pressure → no amplification either way; the case rests on the company's own growth and valuation, not the macro tape.
Source: sector-map (Fintech / EM) · Macro report 2026-07-30
7
Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing
The risk-reward framework, relative strength vs SPY and the sector ETF, the macro overlay, news-derived sentiment, and the catalyst cluster.
Entry/Exit Timing — Pillar Score
A confirmed multi-timeframe uptrend into the Aug-13 print — technically the entry is met, but the earnings gate keeps confidence low.
Momentum is genuinely constructive — every timeframe is up and price is above the 50- and 200-day lines — but a binary earnings event sits 13 days out.
| Signal | Read |
|---|
| Trend (all TFs) | Monthly/weekly/daily uptrend; hourly & 15-min strong uptrend — confluence strongly bullish |
| Price vs MAs | Above SMA50 ($13.2) and SMA200 ($13.4); ~10% below the $16.78 52-wk high |
| RSI (daily) | 60 — healthy, not overbought |
| Relative strength | Recovering strongly (recent +13% session); momentum positive |
| Catalyst risk | Q2 earnings 13 Aug — the take-rate print has gapped the stock the last two quarters |
Short technical-confirmation: MET (confirmed uptrend above the 50-DMA), so the Short is a genuine BUY — but the 13-Aug earnings gate caps timing confidence at ~40% and argues for a reduced size or waiting for the print to clear the take-rate question.
8
Economic Event Risk
High-impact macro releases in the next 14 days that could swing this stock, plus the last 7 days of surprises.
Upcoming events (next 30 days)
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|
| 2026-08-13 | DLocal Q2 2026 earnings | High | EPS ~$0.20, rev ~$365M | $0.14 (Q1) | Yes | The take-rate/margin print is the swing catalyst |
Recent surprises (last 7 days)
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|
| 2026-07-30 | EEM (EM equities) | +4.1% | — | risk-on | Mild EM tailwind |
| 2026-07-29 | USD | −1% | — | softer | Positive for EM FX / take-rate |
The one event that matters is Q2 earnings on 13 Aug: TPV growth is not in doubt, the net take-rate is. A stabilising take-rate + reaffirmed guidance would likely re-rate the stock; another leg of compression is the bear trigger. The macro EM backdrop turned mildly friendlier into month-end (EEM up, USD down).
9
Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis
Trend, RSI and breakout status across monthly / weekly / daily / hourly / 15-minute, with a confluence verdict.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend | Bullish | 50 | + turning up | S: 10.6 / R: 16.8 | Breakout | 1.5x |
| Weekly | Uptrend | Bullish | 61 | + rising | S: 12.2 / R: 16.8 | Breakout | 0.7x |
| Daily | Uptrend | Bullish | 60 | + (hist easing) | S: 13.8 / R: 15.5 | Breakout | 0.6x |
| Hourly | Strong up | Bullish | 59 | + rising | S: 14.7 / R: 15.4 | Breakout | 0.8x |
| 15-min | Strong up | Bullish | 55 | flat | S: 14.9 / R: 15.4 | Breakout | 1.3x |
| Confluence: Strongly bullish · MTF Score 78 |
A clean, aligned uptrend — all five timeframes up, price above both major moving averages, momentum firm without being overbought. The only asterisk is event risk: the 13 Aug earnings can override a good chart in a single gap, as it has the last two quarters. Support sits at $13.8 (daily) then $12.2 (weekly).
10
Price Chart (6-Month Daily)
A 6-month daily close line with SMA50 and key support/resistance — the visual companion to the MTF table.
DLO 6-month daily — recovery off the spring lows, back above the 50/200-day into the $15.5 resistance, ahead of the 13 Aug print.
11
Scenario Summary
Bull / Base / Bear 12-month price paths with triggers and probability weights.
Bull $21 (25%)
Q2 shows the take-rate stabilising with TPV still +70%, guidance reaffirmed/raised — the stock re-rates to the analyst high as the margin fear lifts. A ~+39% move.
Base $18 (55%)
TPV growth stays strong, take-rate softens modestly but guidance holds and H2 operating leverage improves — a re-rate toward the $18 consensus over 12 months. A ~+19% move (the centre of gravity).
Bear $12 (20%)
Another leg of take-rate/margin compression or an EM-FX shock at the 13 Aug print — the stock gaps back toward the low-$12 support. A ~−21% move.
Probability-weighted 12-month fair value ≈ $17.4 (0.25×21 + 0.55×18 + 0.20×12), ~+15% from $15.14 — the distribution is tight and hinges on the 13 Aug take-rate read.
12
Entry / Exit Rules
Three independent entry paths (Fundamental · Technical · Catalyst) and three exit triggers (Stop-Loss · Thesis · Profit-Target). Any one entry path is a valid entry — the more that agree, the larger the position the conviction ladder suggests. Exits are graded by severity, not count.
How to read this — the Conviction Ladder
The three entry groups are alternative paths to a buy, not a checklist. A group counts only when all its sub-conditions hold. How many groups are satisfied sets the suggested size — it does not gate whether you may enter: 1 group = Half-Size (a valid starter/scale-in), 2 = Full-Size, 3 = Over-Size (highest conviction); 0 = Wait (no path open yet). A strong overall signal can still read Wait here when the stock is well above its entry zones — that flags "good business, no entry edge right now," not a contradiction. Exits are graded by severity of what is live, not by a count: a hard stop is an Exit on its own.
Entry conviction: Full-Size2 of 3 groups met — two paths agree — standard full position
Fundamental — MET
Cheap on cash flow with a live secular-volume tailwind.
✅ Price $15.14 below fair value ~$17.4 (fwd P/E 13, ~9% FCF yield)
✅ No earnings within 7 days (Q2 is 13 days out)
✅ Underlying-Driver score ≥ 50 (62)
Technical — MET
Confirmed multi-timeframe uptrend above the 50-day.
✅ Daily uptrend, price > SMA50 ($13.2) & SMA200 ($13.4)
✅ RSI 35–65 (60)
✅ MACD positive / breakout structure across timeframes
Catalyst — not MET
The catalyst (Q2 earnings) is ahead, not yet confirmed.
· Post-earnings +5% with take-rate stabilised & guidance held
Forecast: Fundamental + Technical — both MET now → Full-Size ladder, but the 13 Aug earnings argues for taking a reduced size ahead of the print (catalyst clustering) and adding on a confirming reaction. Catalyst path — event-driven, ~2 weeks: a take-rate-stabilising Q2 with guidance held would open the third entry and likely a re-rate; a compression miss is the bear trigger.
Exit action: Holdno exit trigger is live — hold the position
Stop-Loss — not LIVE
⛔ Two daily closes below $13.20 (loss of the 50/200-day shelf)
Thesis Invalidation — not LIVE
⛔ Take-rate compression accelerates AND FY guidance is cut
⛔ OR TPV growth decelerates sharply below the EM-payments trend
Profit-Target — not LIVE
⛔ Price into $18 (base) with RSI > 70
Forecast: Stop ($13.20) is ~13% below and coincides with the 50/200-day shelf — unlikely absent a bad 13 Aug print. Profit-trim ($18) is the consensus target; a clean Q2 could reach it within weeks, otherwise a 6–12-month path.
Imagine you act at the current price of $15.14 · as of 31 Jul 2026
What if you bought now?
You are risking ~13% (to the $13.20 stop / ~$12 bear) to gain ~19% to base and ~39% to bull.
What you're risking: the biggest is the 13 Aug earnings — the last two prints gapped the stock on the take-rate question, so you're carrying a binary event; plus inherent EM-FX exposure. What you're gaining: a +70%-TPV compounder at ~13× forward earnings and a ~9% free-cash-flow yield, a US$300M buyback shrinking the base, and ~+19% to the analyst consensus. Read: the chart and the value both say buy — but sizing for the 13 Aug print (or waiting for it to clear the take-rate fear) is the prudent way in.
What if you sold now?
Standing aside dodges the ~13% earnings-gap risk but gives up ~19% base-case upside on a cheap compounder.
What you're protecting: the binary 13 Aug downside and the EM-FX drawdown. What you're giving up: the re-rating toward $18, the buyback tailwind, and the secular growth — selling ~19% below consensus. Read: no exit rule is live (stop clear, thesis intact) — this is a hold/accumulate zone, with the print as the swing.
13
Position Sizing Context
Illustrative portfolio math (not advice) translating conviction into an allocation given risk-per-share and volatility.
Position sizing not computed to a % (no risk budget supplied). The §12 ladder reads Full-Size (Fundamental + Technical met), but the 13 Aug earnings (catalyst clustering) argues to reduce ~30% ahead of the print. Volatility: daily ATR ~$0.58 (~4%), beta ~0.94.
14
Calibration Snapshot
Machine-readable snapshot of every score, level and signal, saved alongside the HTML so the next run can compute deltas.
{
"ticker": "DLO",
"date": "2026-07-31",
"version": "v6",
"company": "DLocal Limited",
"currency": "USD",
"brand": "",
"exchange": "NASDAQ",
"exchange_ticker": "NASDAQ:DLO",
"isin": "KYG290181018",
"api_ticker": "DLO",
"analysis_status": "donatien-pick",
"finder_ticker": "DLO",
"finder_exchange": "NASDAQ",
"price_at_rating": 15.14,
"signal_short": "BUY",
"signal_medium": "BUY",
"signal_long": "BUY",
"primary_signal": "BUY",
"short_hold_reason": "",
"short_entry_confirmed": true,
"quality_score": 72,
"valuation_score": 78,
"timing_score": 63,
"driver_score": 62,
"lifecycle_stage": "high_growth",
"overall_confidence": 40,
"economic_alignment_stance": "Neutral",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 55,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Neutral",
"economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
"macro_report_date": "2026-07-30",
"warranted_multiple": 29,
"actual_multiple": 13.4,
"val_multiple_basis": "forward P/E",
"warranted_ratio": 0.46,
"val_band": "attractive",
"nonop_pct_of_net_income": 0,
"clean_pe": 13.4,
"clean_peg": 0.85,
"competitive_share_trajectory": "gaining",
"competitive_threat_level": "moderate",
"fair_value_est": 17.4,
"stop_loss": 13.2,
"target_price": 18.0,
"scenario_base_target": 18.0,
"scenario_bull_target": 21.0,
"scenario_bear_target": 12.0,
"entry_groups_met": 2,
"entry_conviction": "Full-Size",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"hard_gate_state": "caution",
"gates_triggered": [],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"analyst_consensus_target": 18.05,
"analyst_target_high": 21.0,
"analyst_target_low": 14.5,
"analyst_bullish_pct": 69,
"analyst_coverage_count": 13,
"next_update_date": "2026-08-14",
"next_update_basis": "Q2 2026 earnings 2026-08-13 +1 trading day"
}
Signals move to BUY / BUY / BUY (from HOLD / BUY / STRONG_BUY). The Short upgrades HOLD→BUY on the now-confirmed multi-timeframe uptrend; the Long eases STRONG_BUY→BUY because the take-rate compression + a Neutral EM macro pressure remove the amplification. Keeps its Donatien-Pick status. The 13 Aug earnings is the swing.
15
Data Sources & Methodology
Audit trail of every data source: fully available (✓), fallback (⚠), or failed (✗), plus provenance-based confidence haircuts.
Data Source Status
✓
get_yahoo_quote / get_financial_ratios $15.14, ROE 35%, FCF $396M, fwd P/E 13.4, PEG 0.85
✓
get_income_statement (4Q) earnings-quality clean — non-op is a small FX drag, not a boost
✓
get_multi_timeframe_analysis all-timeframe uptrend, confluence strongly bullish
✓
get_grades_consensus / get_price_target_summary Buy (9/3/1), target $18.05, rising
✓
get_ratings_snapshot FMP A− (score 4)
✓
get_earnings_calendar / news Q2 13 Aug; Q1 TPV +73%/rev +55%; take-rate compression theme
✓
Macro report (Economic Alignment) 30 Jul MacroDriver — EM/Financials Neutral near-term
Impact on scores: Full data coverage. Timing confidence trimmed to 40% for the 13 Aug earnings gate. Earnings-quality decomposition confirmed the reported net income is clean (conservative, if anything).
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.