NYSE:DECK Deckers Outdoor Corporation

Sector: Consumer Discretionary → Apparel, Footwear & Accessories. Lifecycle stage: Growth (revenue +9.8% in FY26, +7.9% trailing twelve months, comfortably profitable, decelerating from a high-growth base). That classification matters: it means the retail metric profile applies — brand-level comparable growth and inventory turns lead, and total revenue growth alone is deliberately not trusted, because a portfolio company can grow the top line while both of its brands slow.

Universal sub-signals

Competitive moat scorecard

Moat score: 53/100 (average of 70, 45, 25, 45, 78) — down from 59. A strong brand sitting on top of a category with no switching costs and no structural cost edge.

Net effect on the moat: Switching Costs trimmed to 25 (a consumer changes running brand at zero cost, and the June-2026 quarter shows them doing so at the margin), Cost Advantage to 45 (On's ≥65% gross-margin guide against Deckers' ~56.5%); moat 59 → 53. Competitive threat level: ELEVATED, share trajectory LOSING — both re-derived this run from period-matched company reporting. This propagates: On and Nike are both named in the §11 Bear trigger, and the §12 thesis-invalidation carries a competitive condition.

ROIC & capital allocation

Composite: 79/100.

Relative cross-checks — ordering the name inside the band

Weighted valuation score: 80/100 — inside the 78–100 range the Attractive band requires. Every lens agrees on direction; only PEG and the grades distribution argue for restraint, and they are the two smallest weights for a reason.

Analyst price target consensus

The two panels agree closely on the centre and the floor and disagree only on the high, where Yahoo's US$184 looks stale against FMP's US$145. Target spread is wide (high is 1.7x low), which is a genuine dispersion of view rather than a data problem, so a modest confidence haircut applies. The low target of US$85 is 8.7% below today's price — worth stating plainly, because it means even the most bearish covering analyst sees limited further downside from here. Last-month average of US$118.20 is below the last-quarter US$121.00, so targets are drifting down, not up.

Analyst grades distribution

1 Strong Buy · 25 Buy · 24 Hold · 6 Sell · 0 Strong Sell (56 rated). 46.4% bullish. A Buy consensus in name, a coin-flip in substance. Nobody is calling it broken — zero Strong Sells — and nobody is banging the table either. That is a fair reflection of a cheap stock with a decelerating brand.

FMP ratings cross-reference

Rating A (overall 4/5). Sub-scores: DCF 5, ROE 5, ROA 5, debt-to-equity 4, P/E 3, price-to-book 1. The independent framework agrees on everything that matters here — returns and cash generation are top-marked, leverage is fine. The single low mark is price-to-book at 5.5x, which is a meaningless metric for an asset-light brand company whose value is trademarks that were never capitalised. Noted and set aside.

Risk-reward assessment (score 42)

The tension here is the whole story of this report: the geometry is excellent — a tight, well-defined stop 1.05 ATR away with US$110 of base-case upside — but the relative strength says this is precisely the kind of setup where the tight stop gets hit. Good risk-reward and bad odds are not the same thing.

52-week range and volatility

Range US$78.91 – US$125.45. At US$93.09 the stock sits at the 30.5th percentile — nearer the low than the high, in the zone the framework describes as "beaten down: could be value, could be a falling knife". Given Valuation scores 80 and Timing scores 44, this report's answer is: probably value, demonstrably still falling. ATR is 3.41, or 3.66% of price — a normal daily range of roughly US$3.40. Beta 1.17.

Macro regime overlay (score 53.5)

Overlay: (50 + 80 + 72 + 12) ÷ 4 = 53.5 — the framework's plain equal-weight average of its four sub-signals, used exactly as defined.

A comment on that number rather than an adjustment to it: 53.5 reads far more benign than this stock's situation, because a calm VIX and a normal yield curve average away a Strong Underperform sector signal for a name whose entire driver is that sector's underlying force. An earlier draft of this report re-weighted the sector cell to force the number down — that was an invented method presented as the framework's, and it has been removed. The correct home for the sector story is where the framework already puts it: the Underlying Driver pillar at 43 and the Economic-Alignment pressure of Headwind, both scored off the same 14 August data. Pressing it into the Timing overlay as well would be double-counting.

Sentiment layer (score 53)

Sentiment = average(52, 62, 45) = 53, per the framework's instruction to average the sub-signals. Options skew is excluded rather than guessed, so it carries no weight.

Catalyst layer (clustering score 50)

No company-specific catalyst for ten weeks. Q2 FY27 earnings are on 22 October. That part of the calendar is calm. What is not calm is the macro consumer cluster: CB Consumer Confidence on 25 August and Personal Spending plus Core PCE on 26 August, two consecutive days of releases that speak directly to this stock's driver, followed by payrolls on 4 September. These are macro releases rather than company events, and they cluster into one consumer-data window across 25–26 August rather than three independent catalysts. Scored 50, at the bottom of the framework's "one clear catalyst within 30 days" band (50–69), which carries normal position size with tighter stops around the event — not the 30% cut of the 20–49 "noisy" band. §13 is stated consistently with that. With the ladder reading Wait, sizing is moot for now in any case.

Upcoming events (next 30 days)

Recent surprises (last 7 days)

Deckers carries Medium macro sensitivity under the framework's sector map, so the 3-day WAIT-override that applies to Financials, Materials and rate-linked REITs does not apply here. That is a procedural point; the substantive point is harder.

Three of the last six high-impact releases were direct hits on this stock's driver, and two of them landed on Friday 14 August. Retail sales -0.6% against +0.1% expected, and Michigan sentiment at 51.0 against 54.5, are not ambiguous signals about premium discretionary demand. Add July payrolls at -23k and the picture is a consumer who is losing income and confidence at the same time. The counterweight is thin: unemployment at 4.1% and a soft PPI.

The next date that matters is 25 August. CB Consumer Confidence is the dated test of whether this week was a wobble or a turn, and it is written into the §12 entry rules as the specific condition that could reopen the Fundamental path. 26 August then brings Personal Spending and Core PCE together. A reader waiting for a reason to act has two concrete dates rather than a vague instruction to be patient.

Company-specific event risk, by contrast, is nil for ten weeks. Q2 FY27 earnings are on 22 October. Whatever moves this stock between now and late October will be macro or flow, not news from Goleta.

Weighted MTF score: (25 × 0.30) + (25 × 0.25) + (22 × 0.25) + (58 × 0.12) + (55 × 0.08) = 31. Every timeframe that decides anything is bearish; the two that have turned up are the two that decide least.

The pattern is the textbook higher-timeframe bearish with a lower-timeframe bounce — which the framework classifies as a sell-the-rip setup, not a buy-the-dip one. Monthly, weekly and daily are all in confirmed downtrends with an active support-breakdown flag. Price at US$93.09 is below the 20-day (98.34), the 50-day (103.42) and the 200-day (102.10), and the 50-day has crossed below the 200-day. There is no higher-timeframe uptrend for the hourly bounce to be a pullback within.

The last four sessions, precisely, because this is where the entry decision is made (ratios against the true 20-session average of 2.496m — an earlier draft used 2.09m, which is the 10-session average): 11 Aug closed 93.84 on 3.11m shares (1.25x) as the breakdown began; 12 Aug closed 91.20 with an intraday low of 91.08 on 3.57m shares (1.43x) — heavy, though short of a true capitulation flush; 13 Aug bounced to 93.30 on 2.34m (0.94x); 14 Aug closed 93.09 on 1.65m shares, just 0.66x average.

What the tape actually shows, stated accurately: the last three sessions made higher lows — 91.08, then 91.66, then 92.30 — and 14 Aug's high of 94.33 did exceed 13 Aug's 93.69. That micro-structure is constructive and should be reported as such rather than talked down.

Why it is still not a technical entry. The framework's second branch requires a tested bounce off weekly or monthly support. Deckers did not bounce off the 91.80 weekly support — it closed below it, at 91.20 on 12 Aug. This is a break-and-rebound from beneath support, not a hold above it, and that is a materially weaker pattern: the level that should have caught the stock did not. The daily support-breakdown flag remains active, the rebound is running on declining volume back into that same broken level, and two sessions is not a test of anything. That is a bounce, not a base. Support convergence is the one genuinely constructive feature — weekly support at 91.80, the daily swing low at 91.08 and hourly support at 91.66 all cluster inside a US$0.75 band, which makes it a well-defined line and a cheap place to be wrong. The nearest real resistance overhead is the 96.81 daily swing high, then the 98.34 20-day, then the 102–103 band where the 200-day and 50-day sit together.

What would change the read: a daily close above US$103.42 on more than 1.5x the 2.496m 20-session average volume, or a genuine retest of US$91.80 that holds with a higher low and expanding volume. Neither has happened.

Six months of daily closes to 14 August 2026 with the 50-day simple moving average. The shape is the report in one picture: a 24% slide from US$120.94 in late February, a failed recovery into US$114 in late May and again into US$109 in mid-July, the post-earnings gap on 23 July, and this month's break to US$91.20 on heavy volume. Price has been below a falling 50-day for essentially the whole period. The green line at US$91.80 is where the weekly support, the 12 August swing low and hourly support all converge; the amber line at US$103.42 is the level that would reopen the Technical entry path.

Probability-weighted fair value: (110 × 0.55) + (132 × 0.22) + (78 × 0.23) = US$107.5 (107.48 unrounded). That is +15.5% against US$93.09, with the base case the most probable branch and the three weights summing to 100%. The distribution is deliberately wider on the downside than the prior report's — the bear was cut from a prior US$82 to US$78 and given three points more probability — because the consumer data that landed this week made that branch more available, not less.

Forecast: Zero of three paths are open, so the ladder reads Wait — but each path has a dated, specific reopening condition rather than a vague instruction to be patient.

FUNDAMENTAL — the closest to reopening. Forecast: possible within 2 weeks. Confidence: Moderate.
Only one condition is missing: the Underlying-Driver score needs to climb from 43 back above 50. Two of the three components of that score are already at or above the line; it was the "current state" leg that broke this week on the -0.6% retail sales and 51.0 sentiment prints. Basis: the driver moved 50 → 43 on a single week of data, so it can move back on a single week of data. The dated test is CB Consumer Confidence on 25 August (previous 90.8), followed by Personal Spending and Core PCE on 26 August. A confidence print holding above ~90 with positive personal spending would plausibly restore the current-state leg to the high 40s and the composite above 50. Risk: a second weak print takes the driver into the 30s instead, and the path stays shut into the autumn.

TECHNICAL — two branches, both some way off. Forecast: 3–6 weeks for the pullback branch; unlikely inside 6 weeks for the breakout branch. Confidence: Low.
Breakout branch: price must reclaim the 50-day at US$103.42, which is 11.1% above spot. The 50-day is falling at roughly US$0.30 a day (104.85 on 10 Aug → 103.42 on 14 Aug), so convergence is coming from the average, not from price. Even with the 50-day drifting to ~US$99 by mid-September, price would still need a 6% rally on expanding volume. Flag this branch Unlikely without a catalyst — and the next company catalyst is 22 October.
Pullback branch (the reachable one): needs a genuine retest of US$91.80–91.08 that holds with a higher low and expanding volume. Price is 1.4% above that zone now, so a retest is a matter of days rather than weeks; what is missing is the confirmation, not the level. Basis: ATR is 3.41, so a single average session covers the distance. Watch for a down-day into 91–92 that closes green on volume above 3m.

CATALYST — forecast: 22 October, and not before. Confidence: High that nothing fires in the interim.
This group is event-driven and cannot be time-projected. The next dated opportunity is Q2 FY27 earnings on 22 October. Deckers beat consensus in Q1 (US$0.94 against US$0.87) and raised its full-year guide, so the beat rate supports the possibility — but the group also requires a greater-than-5% one-day move and 2x volume, and the last two prints produced sold-into rallies rather than confirmations.

Practical reading: the most likely sequence by which this name becomes actionable is a consumer-confidence stabilisation in late August reopening the Fundamental path at half size, with the Technical path following only if the US$91.80 zone is retested and held on real volume. That is one entry path, which is one more than exists today.

Forecast: STOP-LOSS — forecast: live risk inside 2–4 weeks. Confidence: Moderate that it holds; the risk is not remote. US$89.50 is only 3.86% and 1.05 ATR below spot, in a confirmed downtrend on all three decision timeframes with OBV deteriorating. A single bad session covers most of the distance. Basis: the stock has fallen from US$97.44 to US$91.20 in three sessions this month; that pace reaches the stop in two more. Risk trigger: the 25–26 August consumer data. A second retail-sales-style miss would very plausibly break US$91.08.

THESIS INVALIDATION — forecast: one of five conditions is already live; a second is the thing to watch. Confidence: Moderate. The driver condition is live now. The group requires two of N, so it is clear — but it is one condition away from an Exit signal, which is materially closer than it was three weeks ago and deserves saying plainly. The most likely second is the competitive condition, and the dated test is Q2 FY27 on 22 October: HOKA printing below roughly +5% would put the +3%-for-two-quarters trigger within reach by the January print.

PROFIT-TARGET — forecast: unlikely within 12 months. Confidence: High. Requires US$125 and RSI above 70, from US$93.09 with RSI at 37.5 in a downtrend. That is beyond even the bull case's US$132 path on the RSI condition timing. Not a live consideration.

Position sizing is not computed as a percentage this run, and the reason is the ladder, not a missing input. The §12 Conviction Ladder reads Wait — nought of three entry paths open, which carries a ladder factor of 0x. Multiplying any base allocation by zero gives zero, so quoting a percentage here would contradict §12. No portfolio allocation or role was specified for this analysis either, so even a Full-Size ladder would produce a framework, not a number.

What to do instead of sizing: watch the two levels that open a path. US$91.80–91.08 — a tested hold on expanding volume opens the Technical path and would justify a half-size starter with the stop at US$89.50, risking 1.05 ATR. 25 August — a CB Consumer Confidence print that lifts the Underlying Driver back above 50 reopens the Fundamental path independently. If both arrived together the ladder would read Full-Size.

Volatility context

Staggered entry, for when a path opens: three tranches — at the trigger, then at US$91.80 (weekly support), then at US$86.00 (below the stop, i.e. only on a thesis that survives the stop being hit) — would average the entry-timing risk. That is a plan to hold, not an instruction to act. Not advice.

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  "ticker": "DECK",
  "company": "Deckers Outdoor Corporation",
  "currency": "USD",
  "brand": "Deckers Brands",
  "date": "2026-08-15",
  "version": "v6",
  "analysis_status": "on-going",
  "price_at_rating": 93.09,
  "signal_short": "HOLD",
  "signal_medium": "BUY",
  "signal_long": "BUY",
  "primary_signal": "BUY",
  "short_entry_confirmed": false,
  "short_hold_reason": "technical_pending",
  "quality_score": 70,
  "valuation_score": 80,
  "timing_score": 41,
  "driver_score": 43,
  "eps_trailing": 7.03,
  "trailing_pe": 13.24,
  "actual_multiple": 13.24,
  "warranted_multiple": 20.4,
  "warranted_ratio": 0.65,
  "val_band": "attractive",
  "discount_rate_r": 9.13,
  "risk_free_10y": 4.63,
  "g_near": 7.5,
  "g_term": 3.0,
  "clean_pe": 13.24,
  "clean_peg": 1.32,
  "nonop_pct_of_net_income": 4.5,
  "fcf_yield": 7.5,
  "implied_growth_rate": -2.3,
  "moat_score": 53,
  "competitive_share_trajectory": "losing",
  "competitive_threat_level": "elevated",
  "economic_alignment_stance": "Contrarian",
  "economic_alignment_pressure": "Headwind",
  "economic_alignment_conviction": 47,
  "macro_report_date": "2026-08-12",
  "scenario_base_target": 110,
  "scenario_bull_target": 132,
  "scenario_bear_target": 78,
  "scenario_base_prob": 55,
  "scenario_bull_prob": 22,
  "scenario_bear_prob": 23,
  "prob_weighted_fair_value": 107.5,
  "fair_value_est": 110,
  "stop_loss": 89.5,
  "target_price": 110,
  "entry_groups_met": 0,
  "entry_conviction": "Wait",
  "exit_groups_live": 0,
  "exit_action": "Hold",
  "gates_triggered": [],
  "do_not_buy_triggers": [],
  "hard_gate_state": "caution",
  "overall_confidence": 65,
  "next_update_date": "2026-08-31",
  "next_update_basis": "default +14d (rolled Sat 2026-08-29 -> Mon 2026-08-31; next earnings 2026-10-22 outside window)"
}

In one paragraph: Deckers is a high-return, net-cash brand house trading at 13.24x trailing earnings against a warranted 20.4x — below every year-end reading of the past four years, at a price implying minus 2.3% annual earnings growth while consensus models plus 10%. That is why Medium and Long are BUY. The Short is HOLD because none of the three entry paths is open: the Underlying Driver fell to 43 on July retail sales of -0.6% and August consumer sentiment of 51.0, which shut the Fundamental path, and while higher lows are forming, 12 August closed below the 91.80 weekly support — a break-and-rebound on 0.66x volume is not the tested support hold the Short cap requires. The competitive read is what would change the medium-term answer: on period-matched June-2026 reporting HOKA grew +7.7% against On's +13.5% (+21.6% constant currency) and Nike's 20%-plus running growth, after halving its own growth rate in one quarter — which is why the moat fell to 53 and why On and Nike are both named in the bear case. Nothing is gated or triggered. Next update 31 August, with CB Consumer Confidence on 25 August the dated test that could reopen an entry path.