Lifecycle & sector: Consumer Discretionary · Apparel/Footwear & Accessories · lifecycle Growth (rev +~10% with high, stable profitability). Metric focus: DTC/comp growth, gross-margin trend, inventory turns, operating margin, ROIC — the retail profile, adjusted for a brand operator with no debt.
Deckers is, on the numbers, a top-decile consumer business: TTM gross margin 57.3% (vs Nike ~43%, mass footwear 35-45%), operating margin 23.0%, net margin 18.7%, ROE ~41%, ~100% FCF conversion and a net-cash balance sheet. The one blemish is growth deceleration — FY26 revenue $5.47B was +9.7% vs FY25 $4.99B, down from the mid-teens of prior years — and a moat that is brand-led rather than structurally locked-in (footwear has low switching costs and real fashion cyclicality, especially at UGG).
| Sub-signal | Value | Sector context | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue trajectory | +9.7% FY26 | Solid but decelerating from mid-teens | 60 |
| Profitability vs peers | GM 57% / OM 23% | Elite for footwear (Nike GM ~43%) | 88 |
| Cash generation | FCF margin ~21%; ~100% conversion | Best-in-class | 86 |
| Balance-sheet health | Net cash ~$1.5B; D/E 0.15; cov 336x | Pristine | 95 |
| Industry benchmark (retail) | Positive DTC comps; inv turns 4.8x | Above-peer capital efficiency | 82 |
Moat average = 59 (76+50+38+55+78)/5. The walls are brand, not lock-in — strong intangibles and pricing power, weak switching costs. The Switching-Cost (38) and Cost-Advantage (55) sub-scores are derived from the Competitive Environment below, not asserted.
| Rival | Front / threat type | DECK share trajectory | Moat-erosion vector |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Holding (ONON) | Premium performance running — direct HOKA rival | Gaining, but On growing faster off a smaller base | Switching-cost decay — runners rotate brands every cycle |
| Nike | Scale incumbent across running & lifestyle | Stable vs a recovering Nike | Cost/scale advantage — Nike's sourcing scale dwarfs DECK's |
| Adidas | Global scale; Samba/Gazelle fashion cycle hot | Stable; competes for the same fashion wallet | Pricing/fashion — rival fashion cycles pull casual demand |
| Crocs / casual | Low-cost casual substitution for UGG | Stable — different price tier | Pricing pressure at the low end of UGG's range |
Net effect on moat: → Switching Costs trimmed to 38, Cost Advantage to 55 from the share dynamic (On attacking HOKA; Nike/Adidas scale). Competitive threat level: MODERATE. Not existential — HOKA is still taking category share — but enough that the Bear case and exit rules carry an explicit competitive trigger.
| Component | Read | Score |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC (40%) | Very high — asset-light, net cash, ROE ~41%, ROA top-quartile (FMP 5/5) | 90 |
| Capital allocation (30%) | Disciplined buybacks shrinking share count (153M→~139M); no dividend; no leverage | 80 |
| Mgmt skin-in-game (30%) | New CEO (Caroti, 2025); modest SBC; insider ownership moderate | 62 |
ROIC/capital-allocation sub-score = 84. FMP financial-health rating A- (4/5), with ROE 5/5 and ROA 5/5, independently confirms the quality read.
Quality = 80 (weighted: revenue 60, profitability 88, cash 86, balance sheet 95, benchmark 82, moat 59, ROIC 84). Elite economics pull it up; the moderate moat and decelerating growth keep it out of the high-80s. Confidence 82%.
Deckers screens as cheap for the quality — not on an absolute multiple but against its own history and its growth-brand peers. The stock de-rated hard from its 2024-25 highs (monthly resistance still sits at ~$224 pre-context) to ~$109, so today's multiples sit near the bottom of its 5-year range.
| Multiple | DECK | Reference | Read | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E (FY27) | ~14.6x | Nike ~30x, On ~45x+, Adidas ~28x, Crocs ~7x | Well below growth-brand peers | 72 |
| P/E own 5-yr decile | 15.5x TTM | Near LOW end of its own range | Decile 2-3 — attractive | 80 |
| PEG | 1.43 | vs ~8-11% fwd growth | Fair, not screaming-cheap | 55 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.7x | Footwear ~12-15x | Below sector | 74 |
Core business roughly justifies the ~$109 price on its own; the HOKA optionality and net cash are the cushion. Tilt: +4 to Valuation (credible, sizable, partly un-priced) — not a re-rating.
| Analyst consensus | Value |
|---|---|
| Consensus target | $118.73 (+8.8%) |
| Median | $117 (+7.2%) |
| High / Low | $145 / $90 |
| Coverage | Deep (38 in last yr; 12 last quarter; last-month avg $124.71) |
Price is 8.8% below consensus — just inside the "fairly valued, slight upside" band (target sub-score 62). Grades distribution (1 strong-buy / 24 buy / 25 hold / 6 sell) is a Hold consensus, 44.6% bullish — the Street is divided, which caps the grades sub-score at 35 and tempers momentum. FMP rating A- (4/5): high ROE/ROA scores, but P/B score 1 (the asset-light, high-ROE business carries a structurally high P/B of 6.2x — not a red flag here).
Valuation = 70 (sector 72, own-history decile 80, PEG 55, reverse-DCF 78, analyst target 62, grades 35; +4 optionality tilt netted in). Attractive — cheap vs its own history and its growth-brand peers, fairly-priced only against the divided Street. Confidence 78%.
Primary driver: US/global consumer discretionary spending (premium-footwear demand), with the running/athleisure category cycle as the secondary lens. Deckers can execute flawlessly and still miss if the discretionary consumer pulls back — UGG is a want, not a need, and premium running shoes are a deferrable purchase.
| Horizon | Read | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Historical (25%) | Consumer resilient through 2025-26; real wages positive; labor market firm | ~64 |
| Current (50%) | Jobless claims low (226k, in-line), Philly Fed activity expanding, but discretionary spend softening at the margin; premium footwear demand OK not hot | ~62 |
| Forward (25%) | Fed on hold; PMIs in expansion; consensus expects steady (not accelerating) spend | ~60 |
Driver score = 62 · Neutral. This is the deliberate read: the external consumer backdrop is supportive-but-not-a-tailwind, which is why the signal is BUY and not STRONG BUY. Amplification fires only at ≥65 (tailwind) or ≤35 (headwind); at 62 the driver is in the 36-64 band, so it leaves the base signal unchanged. Thesis-invalidation floor: a genuine discretionary-spend contraction (rising unemployment + falling real wages) that pulls premium footwear volumes down.
The latest Macro-Economic report scores Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Outperform short / Outperform medium / Neutral long. Buying DECK rides that sector tailwind — hence Trend-Following with Tailwind pressure (anchored on the medium horizon; the long is Neutral). However, amplification to STRONG BUY needs BOTH a Tailwind economy AND a driver ≥65; the driver is 62, so the economy alone does not amplify — the base BUY stands across all three horizons.
Source: GICS-sector map — Consumer Discretionary (XLY) · Macro report 2026-06-20
Timing is constructive but near-term extended. The multi-timeframe picture is strongly bullish (monthly/weekly uptrend, daily strong-uptrend with price > SMA50 > SMA200), and the daily just reclaimed the 50-day on 1.68x volume (+3.2% on the session). The caveat: the hourly has rolled over (short-term pullback) and the daily MACD histogram is still slightly negative, so the very-near-term momentum has not fully confirmed.
| Component | Read | Weight | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| MTF trend | Strongly bullish confluence; price > SMA50 > SMA200 | 30% | 72 |
| Risk-reward | Mid-range (63% of 52-wk); stop below ~$96 is >2.5 ATR away — wide | 20% | 55 |
| Macro overlay | XLY in favour (rotation in); Fed on hold; VIX moderate | 15% | 65 |
| Sentiment (grades+news) | Grades mixed (2 up / 2 down last 30d); no DECK-specific news in feed | 18% | 45 |
| Catalysts | Earnings ~late Jul (>30d); clear near-term calendar | 17% | 70 |
Relative strength: DECK has rallied ~38% off the March/May ~$79-94 lows back to $109, outpacing the broad tape over 1-3 months — a recovering leader. (No direct SPY/XLY return series was pulled this run; RS read is qualitative — minor confidence haircut.)
Sentiment detail: last 30 days saw upgrades from Piper Sandler (to Neutral) and Bernstein (to Market Perform) against downgrades from Wells Fargo (to Underweight) and KGI (to Neutral), with UBS/Needham/Truist/Barclays maintaining Buy/Overweight — net neutral, no clear directional push.
Timing = 62 (Improving, ≥55). Confidence 65% (−5 no ETF RS series, −5 no DECK-specific news in the feed).
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | S&P Global Composite PMI (Jun) | Medium | 50.8 | 51.5 | ⚠ Medium | Activity/demand signal for discretionary spend |
| 2026-06-24 | New Home Sales (May) | Medium | +2.9% | −6.2% | ⚠ Medium | Housing wealth-effect on discretionary purchases |
| 2026-06-24 | Current Account (Q1) | Medium | −$225B | −$190.7B | · No | Little direct relevance to footwear demand |
| ~2026-07-24 | DECK FY27-Q1 earnings (est.) | High | — | — | ✅ Yes | The next stock-specific catalyst — outside the update window |
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | Initial Jobless Claims | 226K | 225K | +0.4% (in-line) | Neutral — firm labor supports the consumer |
| 2026-06-17 | FOMC decision (held) | Hold | Hold | — | Neutral — rates on hold steadies discretionary multiples |
| 2026-06-18 | Philly Fed Business Conditions | 50.2 | — | Improving | Positive — activity expanding |
Consumer Discretionary is a medium macro-sensitivity sector, so no WAIT override applies. Nothing high-impact and stock-specific lands inside the 14-day window; the June FOMC (held) is already behind us and the next real catalyst is FY27-Q1 earnings in late July. Backdrop is neutral-to-supportive: firm labor, expanding activity, rates on hold.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend ↑ | Bullish | 48.4 | −, falling | S: $93.7 R: $122.3 | Resist. breakout | 0.43x |
| Weekly | Uptrend ↑ | Bullish | 52.1 | +, rising | S: $96.1 R: $119.7 | Resist. breakout | 0.92x |
| Daily | Strong up ↑ | Bullish | 51.7 | +, hist − | S: $97.5 R: $111.0 | Resist. breakout | 1.68x |
| Hourly | Downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 46.1 | −, hist + | S: $105.4 R: $110.6 | Support b'down | 0.12x |
| 15-min | Recovering → | Neutral | 50.8 | −, flat | S: $108.4 R: $110.6 | Resist. breakout | 0.34x |
| Confluence: Strongly Bullish · MTF Score 72 | |||||||
Monthly, weekly and daily all point up, with the daily in a strong uptrend (price $109 > SMA50 $106 > SMA200 $103) and a volume-backed resistance breakout. The hourly downtrend and the slightly-negative daily MACD histogram say the immediate momentum is pausing — a textbook pullback-within-an-uptrend. The reachable early entry is a hold above the reclaimed SMA50 (~$106) or a pullback into the $97-100 support shelf; key resistance is $111 then $116.5.
DECK 6-month daily close with SMA50 (orange). Green = $97 support shelf; yellow = SMA200 ($103); red = $116.5 resistance; purple = $117 median analyst target. The March/May $79-94 washout has recovered to $109, reclaiming both moving averages.
HOKA reaccelerates (international + apparel) and the multiple re-rates toward ~18-20x FY27 EPS. Matches the Street high target. Buybacks amplify per-share gains.
Steady ~8-11% growth, margins held, a modest re-rating to ~16x FY27 EPS — roughly the consensus zone ($117-124). The probability-weighted centre of gravity.
Discretionary spend contracts and/or the brand cycle turns — On reclaims premium-running share and UGG fashion demand fades (the named competitive trigger), pulling growth below the sector and compressing the multiple back toward the $90 low target.
Probability-weighted 12-month fair value ≈ $119 (0.25×145 + 0.50×122 + 0.25×88), ~9% above the current $109 — consistent with the BUY/Attractive read and the +8.8% consensus upside.
Forecast: Fundamental group already MET — a cheap, net-cash compounder is a valid starter today (Half-Size). Technical group flips to MET in ~1-2 weeks (Moderate confidence) if the daily holds above the reclaimed SMA50 ($106) and the MACD histogram turns positive — that would upgrade conviction to Full-Size; a pullback into $97-100 also opens the technical path. Catalyst group is catalyst-dependent on FY27-Q1 earnings (~late Jul). Net: scale in now on the Fundamental path; add on technical confirmation.
Forecast: Stop-loss UNLIKELY in the next 4-6 weeks — $96 is ~12% below price and below both the SMA50 and SMA200; it would take an earnings miss or a discretionary-demand shock. Profit-trim (~$120-125) is plausible on a continued grind higher (Moderate). Thesis invalidation is the one to watch over quarters: the competitive/driver conditions, not price.
Position sizing not computed — no risk budget or portfolio role was specified for this name. The §12 Conviction Ladder reads Half-Size (1 of 3 entry paths met): a valid starter / scale-in. Volatility context for sizing: beta ~1.15, daily ATR ~$4.0 (~3.7% of price), 52-week range $78.91-$126.50. A logical hard stop near $96 is ~12% / ~3.2 ATR away, so a tight-stop entry is better taken on a pullback into the $97-100 shelf. Specify an allocation and role for a portfolio-percentage figure.
{
"ticker": "DECK",
"exchange": "NYSE",
"exchange_ticker": "NYSE:DECK",
"isin": "US2435371073",
"api_ticker": "DECK",
"date": "2026-06-20",
"version": "v6",
"company": "Deckers Outdoor Corporation",
"finder_ticker": "DECK",
"finder_exchange": "NYSE",
"analysis_status": "on-going",
"user_horizon": null,
"user_allocation_pct": null,
"portfolio_role": null,
"lifecycle_stage": "growth",
"price_at_rating": 109.11,
"signal_short": "BUY",
"signal_medium": "BUY",
"signal_long": "BUY",
"primary_signal": "BUY",
"quality_score": 80,
"valuation_score": 70,
"timing_score": 62,
"driver_score": 62,
"economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 66,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Tailwind",
"economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
"macro_report_date": "2026-06-20",
"quality_detail": {
"industry_benchmark_name": "Retail comps + inventory turns",
"industry_benchmark_value": "DTC+ / 4.8x turns",
"industry_benchmark_score": 82,
"moat_score": 59,
"roic_percentile_vs_peers": 90,
"capital_allocation": 80,
"management_skin_in_game": 62
},
"valuation_detail": {
"fcf_yield": 8.5,
"implied_growth_rate": 4.0,
"consensus_growth_rate": 9.0,
"historical_valuation_decile": 2
},
"timing_detail": {
"mtf_confluence": 72,
"risk_reward_score": 55,
"relative_strength_vs_spy": null,
"relative_strength_vs_sector": null,
"catalyst_clustering_score": 70,
"dynamic_macro_weight": 0.15
},
"overall_confidence": 65,
"fcf_yield": 8.5,
"implied_growth_rate": 4.0,
"moat_score": 59,
"fair_value_est": 122,
"stop_loss": 96,
"target_price": 122,
"scenario_base_target": 122,
"scenario_bull_target": 145,
"industry_benchmark_name": "Retail comps + inventory turns",
"industry_benchmark_value": "DTC+ / 4.8x",
"industry_benchmark_score": 82,
"analyst_consensus_target": 118.73,
"analyst_target_high": 145,
"analyst_target_low": 90,
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 8.8,
"analyst_grades_consensus": "Hold",
"analyst_bullish_pct": 44.6,
"analyst_coverage_count": 38,
"fmp_rating": "A-",
"fmp_overall_score": 4,
"recent_upgrades_30d": 2,
"recent_downgrades_30d": 2,
"nonop_pct_of_net_income": 7,
"clean_pe": 16.3,
"clean_peg": 1.5,
"competitive_share_trajectory": "gaining",
"competitive_threat_level": "moderate",
"hard_gate_state": "clear",
"entry_groups_met": 1,
"entry_conviction": "Half-Size",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"gates_triggered": [],
"gates_caution": [],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"next_update_date": "2026-07-06",
"next_update_basis": "default +14d (no impactful event; FY27-Q1 earnings ~late Jul)",
"next_check_date": "2026-07-06"
}
First report for DECK (Starting). BUY across all three horizons; hard-gate CLEAR; entry conviction Half-Size (Fundamental path met, Technical pending confirmation). No prior calibration, so no Changes box.