DI: Commodities

What changed this update (10 Jul 2026)

Gold — unchanged HOLD / HOLD / BUY. Pillars trimmed (S/D 73→70, Value 40→38, Timing 48→44) on June's −74 t ETF outflow, rising real rates (2.31%) and a firm USD. ~26% off the January peak; the central-bank bid makes it a correction, not a top — right asset, no rush.
Silver — DOWNGRADE: Medium BUY→HOLD, Long STRONG BUY→BUY. The squeeze fully unwound (lease rates normalised, COMEX rebuilt, London float recovered), while industrial demand fell 3% and solar is thrifting silver out above $50; the monetary leg reversed. The 46.3 Moz sixth-year deficit is intact but already known — accumulate on weakness, don't chase.
Copper — DOWNGRADE: Short BUY→HOLD, Medium & Long STRONG BUY→BUY. The roll-drag gate flipped CLEAR→TRIGGERED: COMEX is now in contango (pricing the proposed Jan-2027 refined tariff), so CPER bleeds roll yield — own physical (SCOP / COP.UN) instead. LME (~$5.94/lb) is the true global price; COMEX (~$6.29) carries a ~5% tariff premium with snap-back risk. The genuine 2026 deficit ($0 TC/RC, Grasberg) holds the medium/long BUYs.

Portfolio Commodity Grid

Each metal with its portfolio weight per tier (Agg/Bal/Con), the five-pillar scorecard, the three-horizon signal, and the Base/Bull/Bear scenario — then a tile for every way to own it, by country. Pillars & signals are on the metal; the tiles are the vehicles (paper ETF · physical trust · futures). Direct bullion is covered in each report's "How to Get Exposure," not here.

Metal · tier weight · pillars · signal	🇨🇦 Canadian vehicles	🇺🇸 US vehicles
Gold · XAU · real-asset ballast (trend) Agg11% Bal12% Con12% S/D70 Value38 Timing44 Drivers74 Regime56 ShortHOLD MediumHOLD LongBUY Base ~$4,300/oz (+4%) · Bull ~$5,150 (+25%) · Bear ~$3,600 (−13%) Full report →	CGL.TOPaper NowC$31.21BaseC$32.5BullC$39 iShares Gold Bullion (CAD-hedged) PHYS.TOPhysical NowC$43.86BaseC$46BullC$55 Sprott Physical Gold Trust MNT.TOPhysical NowC$58.46BaseC$61BullC$73 Royal Canadian Mint — Gold Reserves	GLDPaper⚠ Now$377.01Base$393Bull$470 SPDR Gold Shares — most liquid PHYSPhysical Now$30.99Base$32Bull$39 Sprott Physical Gold — PFIC election OUNZPhysical Now$39.50Base$41Bull$49 VanEck Merk — deliverable
Silver · XAG · monetary + industrial (contrarian) Agg4% Bal4% Con3% S/D66 Value44 Timing44 Drivers66 Regime50 ShortHOLD MediumHOLD LongBUY Base ~$62/oz (+3%) · Bull ~$85 (+41%) · Bear ~$48 (−20%) Full report →	SVR.TOPaper NowC$27.29BaseC$28BullC$39 iShares Silver Bullion (CAD-hedged) PSLV.TOPhysical NowC$27.12BaseC$28BullC$38 Sprott Physical Silver Trust	SLVPaper Now$53.95Base$55Bull$76 iShares Silver Trust — most liquid PSLVPhysical Now$19.14Base$20Bull$27 Sprott Physical Silver Trust
Copper · HG · electrification (contrarian) Agg8% Bal5% Con3% S/D73 Value50 Timing53 Drivers80 Regime56 ShortHOLD MediumBUY LongBUY Base ~$6.10/lb (+3%) · Bull ~$7.00 (+18%) · Bear ~$5.20 (−12%) · LME basis Full report →	COP.UNPhysical✔ NowC$15.17BaseC$15.6BullC$18 Sprott Physical Copper Trust (CAD units) — preferred, no roll	SCOPPhysical✔ Now$10.69Base$11Bull$12.6 Sprott Physical Copper — real cathodes, no roll (preferred) CPERFutures✘ Now$37.99Base$38.5Bull$43 US Copper Index Fund — contango = roll drag now

Commodity Reports

Pillar scores and the three-horizon signal per metal, with a link to the full five-pillar report — same row format as the equity watchlist.

Metal	Sleeve	S/D	Value	Timing	Drivers	Regime	Short	Medium	Long	Status	Report	Updated
Gold XAU	GLD / PHYS	70	38	44	74	56	HOLD	HOLD	BUY	Live	View →	10 Jul · next 15 Jul
Silver XAG	SLV / PSLV	66	44	44	66	50	HOLD	HOLD	BUY	Live	View →	10 Jul · next 15 Jul
Copper HG	SCOP / COP.UN	73	50	53	80	56	HOLD	BUY	BUY	Live	View →	10 Jul · next 15 Jul