What changed this update (1 Aug 2026)

• Gold — unchanged HOLD / HOLD / BUY. The independent pillars held (S/D 70, Value 38, Timing 44), so the signal held — the circularity guard working as designed. Drivers 74→76 and Regime 56→60 firmed (live Iran/Hormuz re-escalation + the Aug-1 tariff safe-haven bid; stagflation regime lead 38→40%), but those only amplify. Spot ~$4,080/oz (GLD $371.54, −1.5% on the day), ~20% off the January peak; real rates ticked up to 2.41% and the dollar is firm — a real-rate headwind that keeps the short a HOLD while record Q2 central-bank buying (288.9 t) holds the long BUY. Right asset, no rush.
• Silver — unchanged HOLD / HOLD / BUY. Spot ~$58.34/oz (SLV $52.36), ~52% off the January blow-off, so the real-terms-overbought gate cleared (CAUTION→CLEAR) — it is no longer priced near a record. The gold/silver ratio is back to ~70 (mid-range, fair versus gold). Pillars trimmed a touch (S/D 66→65 on a softening industrial/solar leg — thrifting and copper substitution above $50 — the sixth-year deficit intact). A downtrend below every moving average keeps the short a HOLD; the deficit holds the long BUY.
• Copper — unchanged HOLD / BUY / BUY. The tell: copper rose (LME $5.94→$6.26/lb, COMEX ~$6.47, CPER $39.56 near a 52-week high) into weakening demand data (China manufacturing PMI 49.2 contraction, US Q2 GDP +1.5% miss) — a supply-driven move (Grasberg’s full restart slips to 2028, $0 TC/RC, LME stocks the lowest since February). The roll-drag gate stays TRIGGERED for CPER (COMEX contango on the deferred 2027/28 refined-tariff curve) so own physical (SCOP / COP.UN), not the futures ETF; a narrowing-but-live tariff premium (~20c/lb) and a pro-cyclical-hostile stagflation regime keep the short at HOLD. Valuation trimmed 50→47 as price rallied into the ~$5.50–6 incentive band; the genuine deficit holds the medium/long BUYs.