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NASDAQ:CRDO Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd

ISIN: KYG254571055
TechnologySemiconductorsAI ConnectivityDO NOT BUY · valuation + armed AI-concentration tail
NASDAQ · San Jose, CA · fabless AI connectivity (AECs / optical DSP) · FY ends ~early May Analysis Status: Donatien Pick
All figures in USD unless noted. Fiscal year ends early May (FY2026 ended 2 May 2026).
$257.79
-2.96%
12 Jul 2026 · Signal v6
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd

Credo Technology is a fabless connectivity-chip company that sells the plumbing that moves data around AI datacentres. Its flagship product is the Active Electrical Cable (AEC) — a copper cable with Credo's own retimer/SerDes silicon built into the connector — which carries 400G/800G Ethernet traffic between servers and switches inside a rack far more reliably and at lower power than the laser-based optical modules it replaces. Around that it sells optical DSPs, ZeroFlap optical transceivers, SerDes chiplets and SerDes IP. What sets Credo apart is vertical integration on AECs: it designs the whole cable and the chip inside it, so it captures more of the value and has a genuine lead in that niche. The business is tiny by headcount (~800 staff) but has exploded with the AI build-out — revenue more than tripled in the fiscal year ended May 2026 — and its fortunes are tied almost entirely to a handful of hyperscale cloud customers building GPU clusters.

🚫 DO NOT BUY — all horizons. Credo is an excellent, clean-earning business, but it is priced for perfection (forward P/E ~42×, EV/sales ~35×) AND it is the clearest member of the macro report's armed “S&P 500 concentration / AI earnings-quality unwind” tail — its revenue and multiple are levered directly to hyperscaler AI-datacentre capex, with 87% of last quarter's revenue from four customers and a beta of 3.2. Expensive + a live cohort de-rating catalyst = Do-Not-Buy Trigger 2(b). This is a valuation-and-risk call, not a business-quality call. Great company; wait for a far better price.
HorizonSignalComposite ScoreConfidenceKey Driver
Short-term (1–3 mo)DO NOT BUY3050%Expensive + live AI-concentration tail
Medium-term (6–12 mo)DO NOT BUY3255%Priced for perfection into an armed cohort unwind
Long-term (3–5 yr)DO NOT BUY3855%Great business, wrong price — buy far lower
Next update: 2026-07-26 — default +14d (next earnings 2026-09-02 is outside the 14-day window)
Table of Contents
1Five-Pillar Scorecard2Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status3Pillar Detail: Business Quality4Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness5Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers6Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment7Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing8Economic Event Risk9Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis10Price Chart (6-Month Daily)11Scenario Summary12Entry / Exit Rules13Position Sizing Context14Calibration Snapshot15Data Sources & Methodology
1

Five-Pillar Scorecard

Five independent scores — each 0–100 with its own confidence. The three fundamental pillars (Quality / Valuation / Timing) set the base BUY/HOLD/SELL via the Decision Matrix; the two context pillars (Underlying Drivers, Economic Alignment) then amplify a BUY to STRONG BUY or a SELL to STRONG SELL when both corroborate.

Business Quality

78
strong
conf 75%

Valuation Attractiveness

22
expensive
conf 78%

Entry/Exit Timing

58
extended uptrend
conf 55%

Underlying Drivers

72
Tailwind
conf 60%

Economic Alignment

55
Trend-Following
conf 60%
2

Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status

Binary safety checks — any TRIGGERED gate is a hard cap regardless of the scores above; CAUTION gates are sizing notes.
✅
Gate 1 — Financial Distress
CLEAR. Net cash (~$1.4B cash/ST investments, near-zero debt), current ratio ~10×, interest coverage not applicable. No distress.
✅
Gate 2 — Earnings Event Risk
CLEAR (informational). Next earnings ~2 Sep 2026 — outside the 14-day window today, so no timing-confidence cap now. CRDO does move >5% post-print, so timing confidence will be capped as that date approaches.
❌
Gate 3 — Valuation Ceiling
⚠️ TRIGGERED. CRDO sits in the Valuation Anchor's EXPENSIVE band: actual forward P/E ~42× vs a warranted ~25× = 1.68× (trailing ~104× / warranted ≈ 4.2×), AND the actual multiple is far above the Semiconductor guardrail line (28×). Caps the signal at HOLD regardless of momentum — belt-and-suspenders backstop to the anchor.
⚠️
Gate 4 — Accounting / Dilution
CAUTION (not triggered). Earnings are CLEAN — non-operating income is slightly NEGATIVE, so reported net income is if anything understated, not inflated (§7b). SBC and share-count growth bear watching (diluted share count +~16% YoY as the business scaled, plus an aggressive CEO performance-PSU grant), but neither breaches the 25%-of-revenue / 5%-a-year-for-2-years thresholds. No gate.
✅
Gate 5 — Regulatory / Binary Event
CLEAR. No pending binary regulatory event. (China/export-control exposure is a slow structural risk, not a dated binary catalyst.)
✅
Severe Driver Collapse
CLEAR. Driver (AI-datacentre connectivity capex) is a Tailwind, not a collapse.
Do-Not-Buy Trigger 2(b) FIRES — the operative call. The Valuation Anchor puts CRDO in the Expensive band (≥ 1.40× warranted, and above the semis guardrail). At the same time the latest macro report (2026-07-09) carries the “S&P 500 concentration / AI earnings-quality unwind” tail as ARMED, and CRDO is squarely in that cohort — its ~200%+ revenue growth and rich multiple are levered directly to hyperscaler AI-datacentre capex (beta 3.2; 87% of last-quarter revenue from four customers). Expensive + a live, armed, materially-applicable de-rating catalyst = DNB Trigger 2(b) → DO NOT BUY.

Trigger 2(a) (deep-expensive alone) does not fire — it carves out names with exceptional, proven, durable growth, which Credo has. The Do-Not-Buy therefore rests on the live-catalyst arm, not on the multiple in isolation. Trigger 4 (insider selling) does not fire either: the ~$77.5M of June–July C-suite sales were all pre-arranged 10b5-1 dispositions, not discretionary exits — but they are a sentiment watch-item at this valuation.
3

Pillar Detail: Business Quality

A deep dive into the Quality score: business economics, moat, ROIC and the industry benchmark.
Business Quality — Pillar Score
A genuinely high-quality, clean-earning business — elite margins, net cash, a real AEC moat — but with a concentration flaw and a moat that is narrower in the merchant retimer/optical layers.
78
conf 75%

Sector / lifecycle: fabless connectivity semiconductor (FMP labels it “Communication Equipment”; we score it on the Semiconductor + high-growth lifecycle profile). Revenue tripled in FY2026 (ended May 2026) to ~$1.34B — unambiguously Stage-2 high-growth, and now decisively profitable (TTM net margin ~35%). We therefore score primarily on growth, unit economics and moat, with cycle-aware valuation.

Sub-signalReadingScore
Revenue trajectoryFY2026 ~$1.34B, up ~200%+ YoY; Q4 $437M (+157% YoY, +7% QoQ). FY2027 guided >80% growth. Best-in-class among semis.95
Profitability vs peersGross margin ~68% (strong for fabless), operating margin ~33%, TTM net margin ~35%. Margins expanding as it scales.88
Cash generationFCF-positive; FCF/share ~$2.20; ~$1.4B net cash, near-zero debt. Self-funding.82
Balance sheet healthCurrent ratio ~10×, debt/equity ~0.01. Fortress balance sheet.95
Customer concentration (quality dent)Q4 FY2026: four customers >10% at 34% / 27% / 16% / 10% — ~87% of revenue from four hyperscalers. Improving modestly (top customer 39%→34% QoQ) but structurally fragile.35
INDUSTRY BENCHMARK: Semis — Gross Margin + Demand Health. Gross margin ~68% (>60% fabless = strong) with demand running hot (book-to-bill implied well above 1 given >80% guided growth; no glut — inventory turns healthy). Rating: STRONG. Benchmark score 88/100. Context: at cycle-peak demand — the cycle-aware caveat is that today's 68% GM and hypergrowth are near-peak conditions, not mid-cycle.
Pricing power
62
Real in integrated AECs; but merchant retimer silicon is price-competed by Marvell (~15-20% cheaper).
Network effects
50
None material (n/a — scored neutral).
Switching costs
60
Deep hyperscaler design-ins create real stickiness per socket; but a customer's architecture shift (copper→optical, or in-house) can reset it.
Cost advantage
65
Vertical integration on AECs (owns cable + chip) is the primary structural edge.
Intangibles
66
Proprietary SerDes/DSP IP, patent portfolio, first-mover AEC position.

Moat average ~61 — a real, but narrow-and-contested, moat: strongest in integrated AECs, weakest where it is now attacking (merchant retimers, optical DSP — Marvell/MaxLinear's turf).

ROIC & capital allocation: ROIC now high and rising as profitability inflects; capital allocation disciplined (no debt, no dilutil-heavy M&A); management skin-in-the-game solid (founder-led, CEO retains ~2.1M shares). Offset: an aggressive CEO performance-PSU grant and ~16% YoY diluted-share growth as the company scaled — watch dilution. Sub-signal ~72.

Competitive Environment (§7c — who is attacking, which way is share moving). The AI-connectivity market is layered, not a single head-to-head:Net: Credo leads and is share-gaining in AECs, but is the challenger in the optical and merchant-retimer layers it is expanding into — which is exactly why Switching-Cost and Pricing-Power sub-scores are capped in the 60s, not the 80s. Share is moving Credo's way today; durability is the open question.
4

Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness

Sector-appropriate multiples, FCF yield, reverse-DCF implied growth, embedded optionality, and the analyst-consensus cross-check.
Valuation Attractiveness — Pillar Score
Expensive on every basis — the anchor, the guardrail, and the analyst-target cross-check all agree the price embeds a flawless future.
22
conf 78%

The verdict is band-independent: whether you use the trailing or the forward multiple, and even on the generous warranted number, CRDO lands in the Expensive band. That immunity to the input choice is the whole point of the anchor.

THE ANCHOR — Warranted-Multiple Valuation (Semiconductors, secular-growth).
Discount rate r = 4.54% (UST10Y, macro 2026-07-09) + 4.5% ERP + 2.0% risk add-on (beta 3.20 > 1.6) = ~11.0%.
Growth g_near = 20% — the generous secular-growth cap, flagged, for a proven >20% grower (haircut consensus >80% down hard); g_term = 3%.
Warranted P/E (two-stage) ≈ 25× at g_near=20% (≈21× at the standard 15% cap), then floored by the Semiconductor guardrail line of 28×. We use ~25× as the warranted headline.
Actual forward FY2027 P/E = 257.79 / 6.10 EPS = ~42× (semis-primary multiple). Ratio = 42 / 25 = 1.68× → EXPENSIVE.
Cross-checks that deepen the read: trailing P/E ~104× / warranted ≈ 4.5×; actual multiple is above the 28× semis guardrail on the floor alone (Expensive regardless of the ratio). val_multiple_basis = forward FY2027 clean P/E.

Implied-growth read (narrative colour): at $257.79 on ~$3.46 non-GAAP FY2026 EPS, the market is discounting a near-flawless multi-year compounding path — roughly the >80% FY2027 growth and a durable high-30s%/50% margin structure holding for years, then a graceful glide. Our disciplined estimate (haircut 20% g_near, 3% terminal, 11% r) warrants ~25×; the price embeds materially more growth-and-margin than the fundamentals conservatively support.

LensReadingScore
Warranted-multiple anchor (40%)1.68× warranted (fwd), 4.5× (trailing) — Expensive band.18
Sector median (20%)EV/sales ~35× vs a ~25-35× hypergrowth AI-connectivity median — mid-to-high (richer than AVGO/MRVL, cheaper than ALAB ~70×).40
Own-history decile (15%)Near the top of its own short (2022-IPO) trading range; ~77% of the 52-wk range, just off all-time highs.20
PEG-style (10%)Fwd P/E ~42× on >80% FY2027 growth is a low PEG on next year — but growth decelerates sharply thereafter (FY2028 ~+49%, then slower), so PEG normalises against a steep deceleration. Modest support, not a rescue.45
Analyst consensus / grades (15%)Consensus target ~$270 (median) = only ~5% upside; the stock has run into most targets (a few high targets to $340-350). 13 Buy / 2 Hold, no Sells. Bullish herd, thin margin of safety.38
FCF yield (universal anchor): ~1% (FCF/EV) — in the “very expensive / valuation depends entirely on future expectations” band. FMP ratings snapshot: overall B, but P/E and P/B sub-scores both flagged 1 (worst) — an independent read that confirms the valuation stretch even as ROE/ROA score well.
Embedded optionality (free upside — a tilt, not a re-rating): the FY2028 scale-up (in-rack GPU-to-GPU) copper opportunity and the >$600M FY2027 optical ramp (optical DSP + silicon-photonics PICs + ZeroFlap, each >$100M) are largely ahead of the base numbers, plus emerging Neo-Cloud customers de-concentrating the book. Real and sizable — but at ~42× forward the market is already paying for much of it, so it cannot turn an Expensive core Attractive. It is the reason to keep watching, not a reason it is cheap. Net: the in-production business justifies well under today's price; the optionality is the bull's case for the next entry, not this one.
5

Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers

The dominant external force the stock is tethered to, scored 0–100. A context pillar: it does not change the base signal — it feeds amplification (tailwind ≥65 can lift BUY→STRONG BUY; headwind ≤35 can push SELL→STRONG SELL).
Primary Driver
AI-datacentre connectivity capex (hyperscaler build-out)
72
Tailwind (amplification-eligible, but blocked by Valuation)

Primary driver: hyperscaler AI-datacentre capex — specifically the demand for high-speed in-rack/back-end connectivity (AECs, optical DSP, 800G→1.6T Ethernet) as GPU clusters scale. This force sits above Credo's own execution: no company sells this much connectivity into a capex winter.

HorizonAssessment
Historical (25%)AI capex has been the dominant secular tailwind of 2024-2026; Credo's ~200%+ FY2026 growth is the direct read-through. Score ~85.
Current (50%)Demand still hot — >80% FY2027 growth guided, optical ramping, Neo-Clouds emerging. But this is the same capex intensity the macro report flags as an armed tail: it is a tailwind that can reverse fast. Score ~70.
Forward (25%)Bullish sell-side capex outlook through 2030; scale-up copper is a FY2028 story (upside optionality). Counter: any hyperscaler capex-digestion signal hits Credo first and hardest. Score ~65.

Driver score ~72 (Tailwind). Under the amplification rules a Tailwind driver (≥65) with a supportive economy could lift a base BUY → STRONG BUY. It is moot here: (a) the base signal is HOLD, and HOLD never amplifies; (b) even if it were a BUY, the Valuation Anchor's Full/Expensive band blocks STRONG-BUY amplification by hard rule. The driver strength is real — it is precisely why the multiple is rich and why the concentration tail is so dangerous.

6

Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment

How the current economic climate sits relative to this stock, read from the latest Macro-Economic report. Classifies the macro pressure (Tailwind / Neutral / Headwind) — the second amplification input — and frames a long entry as Trend-Following or Contrarian with a 0–100 conviction.
Stance · Pressure
Trend-Following · Tailwind
55
conviction

Macro regime: Higher-for-Longer / Stagflation-lite; UST10Y 4.54%. XLK (Tech) signals Short N / Medium O / Long O — a medium/long tailwind for the sector, so buying CRDO is Trend-Following, not contrarian. BUT the same macro report carries the 'S&P 500 concentration / AI earnings-quality unwind' as an ARMED systemic tail, and CRDO is its clearest cohort member. So Economic Alignment is a modest trend tailwind at the sector level, materially offset by the armed concentration tail at the single-name level — hence conviction only ~55, and the pressure does not rescue the signal (HOLD never amplifies; the tail feeds DNB Trigger 2(b)).

Source: macro report 2026-07-09 (sector-map: Technology / XLK) · Macro report 2026-07-09

7

Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing

The risk-reward framework, relative strength vs SPY and the sector ETF, the macro overlay, news-derived sentiment, and the catalyst cluster.
Entry/Exit Timing — Pillar Score
A strong-but-extended uptrend far above rising moving averages; momentum is fading at the top of the range and the entry is poor (chasing, not accumulating).
58
conf 55%

The tape is bullish on the higher timeframes and rolling over on the lower ones — classic late-stage extension. Price ($257.79) is ~60% above the 200-DMA ($161) and above the 50-DMA ($225): a strong uptrend, but a poor place to initiate.

TimeframeTrendRSIMACDRead
MonthlyUptrend (resistance breakout)73+, risingOverbought, extended
WeeklyUptrend65+, risingBullish, getting hot
DailyStrong uptrend53-, hist negativeMomentum fading
HourlyDowntrend45-, fallingNear-term soft
15-minDowntrend51flatNoise

Confluence: bullish higher-TF, soft lower-TF — MTF ~62 (Mostly Bullish, extended). Relative strength is exceptional: CRDO +60% over 3 months vs SMH +32% (+29pp) and +3.4% over 1 month vs SMH -2.1% (+5.5pp) — a clear sector leader, and crushing the S&P (+10% YTD). But 52-wk range position ~77% and RSI 73 monthly say extended, not entry. Daily ATR ~10% of price — this is a violently volatile stock (beta 3.2). Nearest meaningful support: $200 / $183 / $164 (daily), then the $148 swing low. The timing pillar scores a middling 58 not because the trend is weak — it isn't — but because initiating here means chasing a parabolic move into overbought readings with a wide, deep stop.

8

Economic Event Risk

High-impact macro releases in the next 14 days that could swing this stock, plus the last 7 days of surprises.

Upcoming events (next 30 days)

DateEventImpactForecastPreviousRelevant?Why
2026-07-14CPI (Jun) YoY / MoMHigh3.9% / -0.1%4.2% / +0.5%⚠️ MediumGrowth-multiple names are rate-sensitive; a hot print lifts the 10Y and pressures long-duration valuations like CRDO.
2026-07-29FOMC Rate DecisionHighHold 3.75%3.75%⚠️ MediumRate path drives the discount rate on hypergrowth multiples; a hawkish hold is a headwind for the richest names.
2026-09-02CRDO FQ1 FY2027 earningsHigh$1.16 EPS / ~$470M rev—✅ YesThe next binary event for the name — guidance on optical ramp + concentration is the key catalyst. Outside today's 14-day window.

Recent surprises (last 7 days)

DateEventActualForecastSurpriseImpact
2026-07-06ISM Services PMI (Jun)54.054.0in-lineNeutral for semis
2026-06-01CRDO FQ4/FY2026 earnings$1.16 (beat $1.02)$1.02+13.7% beatPositive — drove the recent leg higher; targets raised to $325-350 by several firms

No high-impact CRDO-specific event inside 14 days. CPI (14 Jul) and FOMC (29 Jul) are medium-relevant as macro rate events that press long-duration growth multiples — exactly the lever the Expensive anchor is exposed to. The name's own next binary is FQ1 earnings ~2 Sep. Semiconductors are a low-macro-sensitivity sector for scheduling, so these macro dates do not pull the next-update date forward; the +14d default stands.

9

Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis

Trend, RSI and breakout status across monthly / weekly / daily / hourly / 15-minute, with a confluence verdict.
TimeframeTrendDirectionRSIMACDKey S/RBreakoutVol
MonthlyUptrend ↑Bullish73+, risingR: $308 / S: $214Resist. breakout0.4×
WeeklyUptrend ↑Bullish65+, risingR: $308 / S: $86Resist. breakout0.8×
DailyStrong up ↑Neutral53-, hist negR: $290 / S: $200None0.4×
HourlyDowntrend ↓Bearish45-, fallingR: $268 / S: $250None0.1×
15-minDowntrend ↓Neutral51flatR: $261 / S: $256None0.1×
Confluence: Mostly Bullish (extended) · MTF Score 62

Monthly and weekly trends are solidly bullish but overbought (monthly RSI 73); the daily has lost momentum (MACD histogram negative) and the intraday frames have rolled over. This is a strong uptrend in a late, extended phase — consistent with a stock that just ran ~+60% in three months into its earnings-driven high. The message for timing is 'do not chase': the reachable early entry, if the thesis ever flipped on valuation, would be a pullback into the $200 / $183 support shelf, not a breakout at the highs.

10

Price Chart (6-Month Daily)

A 6-month daily close line with SMA50 and key support/resistance — the visual companion to the MTF table.

CRDO daily closes, Apr–Jul 2026. Price ($257.79) sits ~60% above the 200-DMA and well above our computed fair value (~$155). The gap between price and fair value is the report in one picture.

11

Scenario Summary

Bull / Base / Bear 12-month price paths with triggers and probability weights.

Bull $340 (20%)

The optical ramp (>$600M FY2027) and FY2028 scale-up copper both deliver on schedule, Neo-Cloud customers de-concentrate the book, AI capex stays torrid through 2028, and the market keeps paying a premium multiple. Growth simply outruns the rich starting valuation. Price reaches the Street's high targets ($325-350). This is a real path — Credo is executing — but it requires near-flawless execution AND multiple persistence; you are paying full price for it today.

Base $215 (55%)

Credo grows into part of its valuation: FY2027 delivers the >80% growth, but the forward multiple compresses from ~42× toward the high-20s/30s as growth decelerates and the AI-capex trade cools from euphoria to merely strong. Strong business, digesting a parabolic move — the stock drifts lower/sideways over 12 months even as earnings rise, because the starting multiple was the problem. This is why the signal is DO NOT BUY at $258, not a bearish call on the company: the central case is a modest de-rating, not a collapse.

Bear $120 (25%)

TWO legs, and the cohort leg is the one the armed macro tail demands. (1) COHORT DE-RATING (the tail): the 'S&P 500 concentration / AI earnings-quality unwind' fires — an AI private-valuation markdown or a hyperscaler guiding capex DOWN triggers an index-level, breadth-narrow drawdown, and the most capex-geared names de-rate hardest. Forward P/E compresses 42× → ~20× (a 40-50% multiple move), independent of Credo's own numbers. (2) IDIOSYNCRATIC (concentration): one of the four >10% customers (87% of revenue) cuts orders, shifts an architecture to optical, or moves in-house — revenue AND the multiple fall together. Either leg lands the stock near ~$120; both together, lower. TRIGGER to watch: a hyperscaler capex-cut headline or an AI-markup reversal. FALSIFICATION: market breadth broadens (RSP catching SPY) and hyperscaler capex guidance holds — if that happens, drop the cohort leg on the next refresh. Beta 3.2 means CRDO amplifies whatever the cohort does.

Probability-weighted fair value ≈ $216 (0.20×$340 + 0.55×$215 + 0.25×$120) — ~16% below today's $257.79. The distribution is skewed to the downside from here because the entry multiple leaves little margin of safety and the bear carries a real, armed, cohort-level catalyst. Note the Base and both tails all sit at or below the current price: there is no scenario in which buying at $258 offers an attractive risk-reward, which is the arithmetic behind DO NOT BUY.

12

Entry / Exit Rules

Three independent entry paths (Fundamental · Technical · Catalyst) and three exit triggers (Stop-Loss · Thesis · Profit-Target). Any one entry path is a valid entry — the more that agree, the larger the position the conviction ladder suggests. Exits are graded by severity, not count.

How to read this — the Conviction Ladder

The three entry groups are alternative paths to a buy, not a checklist. A group counts only when all its sub-conditions hold. How many groups are satisfied sets the suggested size — it does not gate whether you may enter: 1 group = Half-Size (a valid starter/scale-in), 2 = Full-Size, 3 = Over-Size (highest conviction); 0 = Wait (no path open yet). A strong overall signal can still read Wait here when the stock is well above its entry zones — that flags "good business, no entry edge right now," not a contradiction. Exits are graded by severity of what is live, not by a count: a hard stop is an Exit on its own.
Entry conviction: Wait0 of 3 groups met — no entry path open

Fundamental — not MET

Price is ~66% ABOVE fair value — the cheapness path is nowhere near open.
⛔ Price $257.79 < fair value ~$155
✅ No earnings within 7 days (next ~2 Sep)
✅ Underlying-Driver score ≥ 50 (72)

Technical — not MET

Extended, overbought, momentum fading — no clean trend-turn or support-bounce entry; RSI acceptable but the other conditions fail.
⛔ Daily close > SMA50 ($225) already true, but on fading momentum (MACD hist negative) — not a fresh volume breakout
⛔ OR a tested bounce off $200 / $183 support with a higher low
✅ RSI 35-65 (53 daily)
⛔ MACD histogram positive ≥ 2 days OR turning up off support

Catalyst — not MET

The FQ4 beat already fired weeks ago and is in the price; no fresh in-window catalyst.
· Post-earnings move within 24h > +5% (next print ~2 Sep, outside window)
· Guidance raised or maintained
⛔ Volume > 2× the 20-day average

Forecast: ENTRY — Fundamental group: price < ~$155 fair value → FORECAST: Unlikely in the next 1-3 months without a de-rating catalyst. BASIS: price $257.79 is ~40% above the level required and the trend is still up; only a cohort unwind or a growth stumble closes the gap. A more reachable 'watch' entry is a pullback into the $200 / $183 daily-support shelf, which at ~10% daily ATR and the current wobble could occur within weeks on any AI-capex scare — but that is a level to WATCH, not a buy signal today (the DO-NOT-BUY sits above the ladder). CONFIDENCE: Moderate that $200-183 is tested in 1-2 months; Low that fair value (~$155) is reached absent the bear catalyst. ENTRY — Technical group: a clean re-accumulation setup requires the daily MACD to turn back up on volume; ~1-3 weeks IF the pullback holds support, Unlikely if it keeps grinding higher into overbought. All entry paths are academic while DNB Trigger 2(b) is live — they define the price at which the name would merely return to HOLD, not BUY.

Exit action: Holdno exit trigger is live — hold the position

Stop-Loss — not LIVE

⛔ For an existing holder: two daily closes below $200 (loss of the first support shelf)

Thesis Invalidation — not LIVE

⛔ A >10% customer cuts orders or shifts architecture (concentration leg)
⛔ Hyperscaler AI-capex guided DOWN / AI private-valuation markdown (cohort leg)
⛔ FY2027 growth guidance cut below sector expectations

Profit-Target — not LIVE

⛔ For a holder: price into $325-340 (Street high) with RSI > 70 and no quality re-rating

Forecast: These exits are framed for anyone who ALREADY owns CRDO (this report does not initiate). Stop at $200 is ~22% below price — not imminent at current trajectory, but ~10% daily ATR means a two-day break can happen fast on an AI-capex scare or a hot CPI/hawkish FOMC (14 / 29 Jul). Thesis-invalidation is catalyst-dependent; the FQ1 print (~2 Sep) is the key date. A holder near $325-340 into overbought should trim.

Imagine you act at the current price of $257.79 · as of 12 Jul 2026

What if you bought now?

Buying here risks ~40% of downside to fair value (~$155) / ~53% to the bear (~$120) to chase ~32% of upside to the Bull ($340) — a risk-reward skewed the wrong way, into an armed cohort tail. That asymmetry, not any doubt about the business, is the DO NOT BUY.

What if you sold now?

An existing holder sitting on large gains has a defensible 'trim into strength / trail a stop below $200' plan; a new buyer has no edge here.
13

Position Sizing Context

Illustrative portfolio math (not advice) translating conviction into an allocation given risk-per-share and volatility.

Position sizing not computed — specify your portfolio allocation and role for sizing guidance.

14

Calibration Snapshot

Machine-readable snapshot of every score, level and signal, saved alongside the HTML so the next run can compute deltas.
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  "api_ticker": "CRDO",
  "date": "2026-07-12",
  "version": "v6",
  "analysis_status": "donatien-pick",
  "user_context": {
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  },
  "price_at_rating": 257.79,
  "signal_short": "DO_NOT_BUY",
  "signal_medium": "DO_NOT_BUY",
  "signal_long": "DO_NOT_BUY",
  "primary_signal": "DO_NOT_BUY",
  "short_entry_confirmed": false,
  "short_cap_reason": "Moot \u2014 signal is DO NOT BUY via Gate 3 + DNB Trigger 2(b); base was already HOLD (Expensive), so the Short technical-confirmation cap never became the binding constraint.",
  "quality_score": 78,
  "lifecycle_stage": "high_growth",
  "quality_detail": {
    "industry_benchmark_name": "Semis \u2014 Gross Margin + Demand Health",
    "industry_benchmark_value": "68% GM, hot demand",
    "industry_benchmark_score": 88,
    "moat_score": 61,
    "roic_capital_allocation": 72,
    "management_skin_in_game": 65,
    "customer_concentration_note": "Q4 FY2026 four customers >10%: 34/27/16/10% (~87% of revenue)"
  },
  "valuation_score": 22,
  "valuation_detail": {
    "fcf_yield": 1.0,
    "actual_multiple": 42.0,
    "warranted_multiple": 25.0,
    "warranted_ratio": 1.68,
    "val_multiple_basis": "forward FY2027 clean P/E",
    "discount_rate_r": 0.11,
    "risk_free_10y": 0.0454,
    "g_near": 0.2,
    "g_term": 0.03,
    "val_band": "expensive",
    "trailing_pe": 104,
    "trailing_ratio_vs_warranted": 4.5,
    "sector_guardrail_line": 28,
    "ev_sales_ttm": 35,
    "historical_valuation_decile": 9
  },
  "timing_score": 58,
  "timing_detail": {
    "mtf_confluence": 62,
    "risk_reward_score": 40,
    "relative_strength_vs_spy_3mo_pp": 50,
    "relative_strength_vs_sector_3mo_pp": 28.8,
    "relative_strength_vs_sector_1mo_pp": 5.5,
    "range_position_52wk_pct": 77,
    "atr_pct_of_price": 10.3,
    "catalyst_clustering_score": 60,
    "dynamic_macro_weight": 0.15
  },
  "driver_score": 72,
  "driver_name": "AI-datacentre connectivity capex (hyperscaler build-out)",
  "driver_label": "Tailwind",
  "econ_stance": "Trend-Following",
  "econ_pressure": "Tailwind",
  "econ_conviction": 55,
  "overall_confidence": 55,
  "fair_value_est": 155,
  "stop_loss": 200,
  "target_price": 215,
  "scenario_bull_target": 340,
  "scenario_base_target": 215,
  "scenario_bear_target": 120,
  "scenario_bull_prob": 20,
  "scenario_base_prob": 55,
  "scenario_bear_prob": 25,
  "prob_weighted_fair_value": 216,
  "competitive_rivals": [
    "MRVL",
    "AVGO",
    "ALAB",
    "MTSI",
    "MaxLinear",
    "in-house hyperscaler silicon"
  ],
  "competitive_share_trajectory": "Leader and share-gaining in AECs (integrated); challenger in merchant retimers (Marvell ~15-20% cheaper) and optical DSP (Marvell/MaxLinear incumbents)",
  "beta": 3.2,
  "entry_groups_met": 0,
  "entry_conviction": "Wait",
  "exit_groups_live": 0,
  "exit_action": "Hold",
  "gates_triggered": [
    "Gate 3 \u2014 Valuation Ceiling (Expensive band + above semis guardrail)"
  ],
  "do_not_buy_triggers": [
    "Trigger 2(b) \u2014 Expensive (1.68\u00d7 warranted) + live ARMED AI-concentration/earnings-quality unwind tail materially applies (clearest cohort member: capex-geared revenue, beta 3.2, 87% revenue in 4 customers)"
  ],
  "systemic_tail_inherited": "S&P 500 concentration / AI earnings-quality unwind (armed, macro 2026-07-09) \u2014 carried as the \u00a711 Bear cohort de-rating leg (42\u00d7\u219220\u00d7); falsification = breadth broadening (RSP catching SPY)",
  "next_update_date": "2026-07-26",
  "next_update_basis": "default +14d (next earnings 2026-09-02 outside the 14-day window)",
  "next_check_date": "2026-07-26"
}
15

Data Sources & Methodology

Audit trail of every data source: fully available (✓), fallback (⚠), or failed (✗), plus provenance-based confidence haircuts.
Data Source Status
✓
get_company_profile / get_financial_ratios Identity, price $257.79, beta 3.20, margins, trailing P/E ~104× (GAAP diluted), EV ~$46.9B.
✓
get_income_statement (8 quarters) FY2026 rev ~$1.34B (+200%+); clean earnings — non-operating income slightly negative (§7b: no inflation).
✓
get_analyst_estimates FY2027 EPS ~$6.10 (fwd P/E ~42×), FY2028 ~$8.94; rev FY2027 ~$2.43B.
✓
get_price_target_consensus / _summary Median $270, high $350, low $200; stock has run into targets.
✓
get_grades_consensus / get_stock_grades 13 Buy / 2 Hold / 0 Sell; recent target hikes to $325-350.
✓
get_multi_timeframe_analysis / get_technical_indicators Extended uptrend; monthly RSI 73; price ~60% above 200-DMA.
✓
get_ratings_snapshot Overall B; P/E and P/B sub-scores both 1 (worst) — confirms valuation stretch.
✗
get_risk_factors SEC risk-factor endpoint returned empty text; substituted with 10-K/earnings-call web research (customer concentration 34/27/16/10%).
✓
Web research (10-K, earnings call, sell-side) Customer concentration, competitive layers (MRVL/AVGO/ALAB/MTSI), insider 10b5-1 sales ~$77.5M, peer multiples, relative strength.
✓
Macro report 2026-07-09 UST10Y 4.54%; XLK N/O/O; ARMED 'S&P 500 concentration / AI earnings-quality unwind' tail.
Impact on scores: High confidence on the valuation and signal call (multiple, anchor, guardrail all agree; earnings verified clean). The only material data gap was the SEC risk-factor endpoint (empty), backfilled by primary-source web research — which strengthened rather than weakened the concentration read. Peer multiples carry source-to-source variance and are used only as directional cross-checks, not as the anchor.
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.