CME Group runs the world's largest derivatives marketplace — the exchange where futures and options on interest rates, equity indices, energy, agriculture, FX and metals are traded and, crucially, cleared. Its core business is charging a small fee on every contract that changes hands, then guaranteeing settlement through its clearing house. The edge is a near-monopoly on the products it dominates (US Treasury and SOFR rate futures, equity-index futures): once liquidity and open interest pool on one venue, traders cannot easily move because the offsetting position, the margin efficiency and the clearing all live there — a self-reinforcing network. It is exceptionally capital-light: ~60%+ operating margins, almost no capital expenditure, and it returns nearly all its cash via a regular dividend plus a variable year-end special dividend. For a reader: think of it as a toll booth on the plumbing of global finance — it earns more when markets are volatile and trading is heavy, and it is valued like a quality compounder (on earnings), not like a bank (on book value).
Lifecycle: Mature / Cash Cow. CME is a capital-light exchange operator, not a bank or insurer — so it is scored on exchange economics (operating margin, ROIC, ADV/volume trend, FCF conversion), not bank metrics. Traditional P/TBV is meaningless here: tangible book per share is negative (−$2.96) because the balance sheet is dominated by goodwill from the CBOT / NYMEX / NEX acquisitions. The correct lens is earnings and cash return.
| Sub-signal | Value | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Operating margin (TTM) | 65.6% | Elite; exchange near-monopoly. Reported EBITDA margin ~88%. |
| Revenue trajectory | ~+11% YoY (Q1'26 $1.88bn) | Volume + rate/vol activity driven; record Q1. |
| FCF conversion | ~98% of op cash flow | Almost no capex (capex coverage 48×). Cash machine. |
| ROE (TTM) | ~16% | High on a capital-light base; ROIC well above cost of capital. |
| Balance sheet | Debt/equity 0.13 | Near-zero net debt; interest coverage 25×. |
| Cash return | ~4.6% TTM yield | Regular dividend + a variable year-end special dividend (paid ~$11.25/sh TTM incl. special). |
Steady take-rate; can raise fees within reason.
Open-interest liquidity pool self-reinforces.
Margin offsets + clearing lock traders in — but see FMX below.
Scale + single clearing house = structurally low unit cost.
Regulatory barriers, benchmark contracts (SOFR, WTI).
Moat average ≈ 83. Non-applicable dimensions scored to the business — all five genuinely apply to an exchange.
Primary multiple: P/E (capital-light exchange; secondary EV/EBITDA ~15×, FCF yield ~4.9%, cash-return yield ~4.6% incl. the special dividend). P/TBV is not used — tangible book is negative.
| Lens | Reading | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Anchor (40% wt) | Clean ~23× (float-strip) ÷ warranted 18.9× = 1.22× | Full |
| Sector median (20%) | Exchanges (ICE/NDAQ) ~24–28× fwd; CME ~20× fwd P/E | In line / slight discount on fwd |
| Own 5-yr decile (15%) | ~20× fwd sits mid-range; price −25% off the $329 high | Mid-decile |
| Clean PEG (10%) | Clean ~23× / ~9% fwd growth ≈ 2.5 | Rich vs growth |
| Analyst consensus (15%) | Median target $309 (+25%); grades split 15 Buy / 16 Hold / 5 Sell | Upside on price target, mixed grades |
Implied-growth read: at $246 on a float-clean ~$10.5 EPS, the market embeds roughly the disciplined ~5–6% growth we assume — the price is fair-to-full for a defensive compounder, not a bargain. The FMP forward-PEG of 3.9 and clean PEG ~2.5 both say you are paying up for durability, not growth. Full band → not STRONG-BUY-eligible and no valuation entry edge until a pullback.
CME's revenue is a toll on trading activity, so its primary driver is average daily volume (ADV), which is itself driven by market volatility and rate-cycle / policy activity. The secondary driver is float / investment income on clearing-member collateral, which higher-for-longer rates keep elevated.
| Horizon | Driver state | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Short | Elevated but mean-reverting | Iran/Hormuz, tariff and rate uncertainty have kept rate + energy volume high — but volatility is cyclical; a vol collapse is the bear. |
| Medium | Supportive | Higher-for-longer keeps rate-futures volume and float income up; macro uncertainty sustains hedging demand. |
| Long | Structural growth | Secular growth in listed derivatives, new products (crypto, event contracts), OTC-to-cleared migration. |
Amplification eligibility: score 60 sits in the neutral 36–64 band — it does not amplify, and in any case HOLD is never amplified. The tailwind is real but fading (volatility is a windfall, not a durable trend). It supports accumulating the name on a pullback, but it cannot lift the base HOLD signals the matrix produces from a Full valuation and a weak tape.
Macro (2026-07-14) rates XLF Short O / Medium O / Long N — real-money and fast-money inflow into Financials, with higher-for-longer + macro uncertainty sustaining elevated rate/energy trading volume and float income (a direct tailwind for an exchange). Trend-Following stance (aligned with the sector signal). Long fades to Neutral as the volatility windfall normalises, which is why the alignment supports Medium more than Long.
Source: sector-map → GICS Financials → XLF · Macro report 2026-07-14
The tape is the binding constraint on this name right now. CME has de-rated from its $329 high to $246 (−25%) and trades below both its 50-day ($262) and 200-day ($279) moving averages. Daily trend is a strong downtrend with a support breakdown; weekly is a downtrend / support breakdown. Only the intraday (hourly/15-min) frames are green — a short-lived bounce, not a trend turn.
| Frame | Trend | RSI | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend (rolling) | 47 | Long-term structure intact but momentum fading (MACD hist negative). |
| Weekly | Downtrend / breakdown | 41 | Below 20/50-wk MAs; support at $218. |
| Daily | Strong downtrend | 49 | Below SMA50 $262 and SMA200 $279. The dominant near-term read. |
| Hourly / 15-min | Strong uptrend | ~55 | Intraday bounce off $242 support — not confirmation. |
Relative strength: CME has underperformed a Tailwind-rated XLF over the pullback — the sector is bid but this name is out of favour into earnings. No Technical entry group is met (no reclaim of the 50-day on volume; no tested higher-low bounce confirmed), which caps the Short horizon (see §12).
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | CME Group Q2 Earnings | High | EPS $2.98e | — | Yes | Binary print in 6 days; drives the Short HOLD and the next-update date. |
| 2026-07-28/29 | FOMC Meeting | High | Hold expected | — | Yes | Rate path sets rate-futures volume + float income. |
| 2026-08-12 | US CPI (Jul) | High | — | — | Yes | Inflation surprises drive rate-vol → CME rate-complex volume. |
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Retail Sales MoM (Jun) | 0.2% | 0.2% | inline | High |
| 2026-07-15 | PPI MoM (Jun) | −0.3% | — | cooler | High |
| 2026-07-14 | CPI (Jun) | cooler | — | below | High |
The dominant near-term event is CME's own Q2 print on 22 Jul, then the late-July FOMC. Cooler June inflation has revived rate-cut bets — a double-edge for CME: cuts can trim float income but a repricing of the rate path lifts rate-futures volume. Net macro pressure on the exchange complex stays a mild Tailwind.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend (rolling) | ↗ | 47 | hist − | S 190 / R 257 | Resist. breakout (stale) | 0.71× |
| Weekly | Downtrend | ↘ | 41 | hist − | S 218 / R 288 | Support breakdown | 0.64× |
| Daily | Strong downtrend | ↘ | 49 | hist + | S 234 / R 270 | Support breakdown | 0.61× |
| Hourly | Strong uptrend | ↗ | 56 | hist + | S 242 / R 247 | Resist. breakout | — |
| 15-min | Strong uptrend | ↗ | 55 | hist + | S 244 / R 247 | Resist. breakout | — |
| Confluence: Mixed / bearish bias · MTF Score 40 | |||||||
The daily/weekly frames — the ones that matter for a Short-to-Medium call — are in downtrends below the key moving averages. The intraday green is a bounce off $242, not a trend reversal. A genuine Technical entry needs a daily close back above the 50-day ($262) on volume, or a confirmed higher low off $218–234 support. Until then the tape says wait.
CME de-rated ~25% from the $329 high; now below the 50/200-day, testing the $234–244 zone above the $218 floor. Illustrative closes.
Sustained elevated volatility (rates + energy + a re-armed geopolitical premium) keeps ADV and float income high; a clean Q2 beat + guidance reclaims the 50-day and the multiple re-rates back toward the exchange peer group. Roughly the analyst median ($309) plus a small premium. Requires the vol windfall to persist, not fade.
The most probable path: quality compounder grinds higher on ~5–6% earnings growth and the special-dividend cash return, but from a Full starting multiple the re-rating is modest — price works back toward the 50-day over 6–12 months as the downtrend resolves. A steady hold, not a multi-bagger.
Volatility normalises (an Iran/Hormuz de-escalation + a benign rate path) → ADV and float income both fade, so earnings growth stalls and the Full multiple compresses toward ~18–20×. Layer in FMX taking measurable Treasury-futures share and the moat premium erodes. Breaks the $218 support toward the low-200s.
Forecast: No entry group met → Wait. The reachable early entry is the Technical group: a daily reclaim of the 50-day ($262) on volume, OR a confirmed higher low off $218–234 — most likely to resolve after the 22 Jul earnings print. A clean post-earnings beat with guidance held would open the Catalyst path.
Forecast: No exit trigger live — there is no position to protect (Wait). If entered later, the $218 stop sits ~11% below spot.
Position sizing omitted — no risk budget was specified for this analysis. The Conviction Ladder reads Wait (0 of 3 entry groups met): elite business, no entry edge at this price/tape.
{
"ticker": "CME",
"company": "CME Group Inc.",
"exchange": "NASDAQ",
"exchange_ticker": "NASDAQ:CME",
"isin": "US12572Q1058",
"api_ticker": "CME",
"currency": "USD",
"analysis_status": "starting",
"finder_ticker": "CME",
"finder_exchange": "\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 NASDAQ",
"lifecycle_stage": "mature",
"date": "2026-07-16",
"price_at_rating": 246.27,
"quality_score": 82,
"valuation_score": 42,
"timing_score": 35,
"driver_score": 60,
"economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 66,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Tailwind",
"economic_alignment_source": "sector-map \u2192 GICS Financials \u2192 XLF",
"macro_report_date": "2026-07-14",
"overall_confidence": 40,
"warranted_multiple": 18.9,
"actual_multiple": 23.0,
"warranted_ratio": 1.22,
"val_band": "full",
"val_multiple_basis": "clean P/E (float-only strip; ~half of the 21% non-op is recurring S&P DJI JV earnings)",
"discount_rate_r": 0.09,
"risk_free_10y": 0.045,
"g_near": 0.0525,
"g_term": 0.03,
"nonop_pct_of_net_income": 21,
"clean_pe": 23.0,
"clean_peg": 2.5,
"competitive_share_trajectory": "stable-to-up in core rate/index futures; FMX Treasury-futures challenger taking negligible share so far",
"competitive_threat_level": "moderate (slow-burn: FMX margin-offset attack)",
"hard_gate_state": "caution",
"gates_triggered": [],
"gates_caution": [
"Earnings Event Risk (Q2 22 Jul, 6d out)"
],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"entry_groups_met": 0,
"entry_conviction": "Wait",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"short_entry_confirmed": false,
"short_cap_reason": "Fundamental-only path (and even that unmet: Full price + earnings <7d); no Technical/Catalyst group met \u2014 daily downtrend below SMA50/200. Buy on confirmation: reclaim of $262 on volume OR a clean post-earnings beat.",
"signal_short": "HOLD",
"signal_medium": "HOLD",
"signal_long": "HOLD",
"scenario_base_target": 270,
"scenario_bull_target": 315,
"scenario_bear_target": 205,
"next_update_date": "2026-07-23",
"next_update_basis": "Q2 earnings 22 Jul (6d, high-impact) \u2192 earnings +1 trading day; inside 14d cap"
}
New addition to the watchlist (B4b bench-promotion). Scored as a capital-light exchange on P/E, not P/TBV. Full-band valuation + a weak downtrending tape produce HOLD across all three horizons — the Decision Matrix (High Quality + Fair/Full Valuation + Weak Timing) returns 'HOLD, watch for a valuation entry' at every horizon; elite monopoly quality supports accumulating on a pullback but does not manufacture a BUY. No live Short BUY — the Portfolio-Watchlist cell it was pulled for stays empty.