CleanSpark is a US-listed bitcoin miner - its core business is running large fleets of specialised computers that secure the Bitcoin network and are rewarded in newly-issued bitcoin, which the company either sells for cash or holds in treasury (it held ~13,470 BTC as of May 2026). It operates ~50 EH/s of hashrate powered by low-cost electricity (~5.2 cents/kWh) across owned data-centre sites, making it one of the most cost-efficient miners in the industry, with a smaller Energy Solutions arm that builds microgrid, demand-response and energy-storage software and hardware. What sets CleanSpark apart from peers is discipline on two fronts: it has stayed a pure-play bitcoin miner rather than chasing the AI/HPC data-centre pivot, and it has actually reduced its share count by roughly 20% through buybacks (funded by convertible debt) instead of diluting shareholders through at-the-market stock sales. For a reader, think of it as a low-cost, shareholder-friendly bitcoin-production business whose fortunes rise and fall almost entirely with the price of bitcoin - and which owns ~1 GW of spare contracted power that could one day host AI computing.
Lifecycle: High-Growth, commodity-price-taker. CleanSpark is a pure-play bitcoin miner scaling hashrate aggressively (50 EH/s operational, fully funded toward 60+ EH/s) with volatile, BTC-mark-to-market-driven reported earnings. FMP mislabels it "Financial Services - Asset Management/Cryptocurrency"; the correct lens is a miner - score it on mining operating economics (cash cost/BTC, mining margin, hashrate scale, balance sheet), never on a GAAP P/E that BTC fair-value swings dominate.
| Sub-signal | Reading | Score | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hashrate scale & growth | 50 EH/s, funded to 60+ | 72 | 3rd-largest US miner behind MARA (~72) and level with IREN (~50); double-digit YoY growth. Real operating scale. |
| Cost position / efficiency | Power 5.2¢/kWh; marginal ~$40-43k/BTC | 70 | Among the lowest-cost operators; but rising network difficulty + BTC ~$61.5k leave all-in margin thin. |
| Cash generation (FCF) | FCF negative (heavy build-out capex) | 30 | The universal FCF anchor reads "not yet cash-generative" - capex on rigs + data centres outruns mining cash flow. |
| Balance sheet | D/E 1.82; current ratio 8.3; ~$0.9B cash + ~$0.83B BTC vs ~$1.15B converts | 55 | Net-debt roughly neutral once BTC+cash are counted; liquidity strong, but convertible leverage is real (Gate 1 caution). |
| Capital allocation / dilution | Share count DOWN ~20% over 15 months | 78 | The standout: unlike typical miners, CLSK bought back ~20% of shares (funded by a $1.15B convert) and issued no ATM equity - disciplined, shareholder-friendly. |
Competitive moat (average 34/100 - thin, as expected for a commodity producer). A bitcoin miner has no pricing power (it sells a fungible global commodity) and no network effects. Its only durable edge is a structural cost advantage (cheap power, efficient fleet), where CLSK genuinely scores well.
| Peer | Hashrate | Mkt cap/EH/s | Positioning vs CLSK |
|---|---|---|---|
| MARA Holdings | ~72 EH/s | ~$56M | Largest; similar pure-play discount; more BTC on balance sheet |
| IREN | ~50 EH/s | ~$294M | Aggressive AI/HPC pivot - premium re-rate CLSK has not received |
| RIOT Platforms | ~31.5 EH/s | ~$206M | Texas power + AI pivot narrative |
| CIFR (Cipher) | ~20.4 EH/s | ~$343M | Smallest hashrate, richest multiple on HPC contracts |
| WULF / HUT / BITF | varies | higher | All leaning into HPC / infrastructure framing |
ROIC & capital allocation: reported ROIC/ROE are negative and BTC-MTM-distorted (FMP rates the name C-), so not a clean quality read. Capital allocation, however, is a genuine positive - the ~20% share-count reduction and no-ATM discipline are unusual and management-aligned. Net Business Quality 55/100 (Medium): a well-run, low-cost, disciplined operator whose ceiling is capped by no moat, negative FCF, high beta (3.8) and full exposure to the BTC price.
The warranted-multiple anchor is N/A for CleanSpark. No clean earnings or FCF multiple resolves: GAAP net income is dominated by BTC mark-to-market swings (a -$378M loss last quarter, large gains in BTC-up quarters), FCF is negative on build-out capex, and EV/EBITDA (23x TTM) is itself distorted by the same MTM. Per the skill we skip the DCF anchor, apply a confidence haircut, and value the miner on the lenses that work: market-cap per EH/s, asset (BTC-treasury) NAV, and analyst consensus. val_band: N/A.
| Lens | Reading | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap per EH/s | ~$65M/EH/s ($3.24B / 50 EH/s) | Cheapest tier - level with MARA (~$56M), far below AI-diversifiers RIOT/IREN/CIFR ($206-343M). Cheap, but cheap for a reason (no AI re-rate). |
| Asset floor (BTC + cash) | 13,470 BTC (~$0.83B) + ~$0.9B cash = ~$1.7B | ~53% of the $3.24B market cap is liquid assets; the operating + AI-optionality business is priced at ~$1.5B. |
| Analyst consensus target | Consensus $18.9 (median $18, high $22.5, low $14) vs $12.62 | ~50% upside to consensus - BUT 11 Buy / 0 Hold / 0 Sell (extreme = contrarian caution) and targets set when BTC was $76-100k, so likely stale. |
| FCF yield (universal anchor) | Negative (build-out capex) | Not yet cash-generative - pulls valuation back to Fair. |
| P/B / P/S | P/B 3.4x, P/S 4.4x | Full-ish on book/sales for a capital-intensive commodity business. |
Net Valuation 58/100 - Fair (edge to Attractive). Genuinely cheap on hashrate and half its market cap is liquid BTC+cash (which cushions the downside); but negative FCF, a distorted/absent earnings multiple, stale-looking analyst targets, and the extreme unanimous consensus keep it out of the clean "Attractive (≥65)" band. Fair-value estimate ~$15 (below the $18.9 consensus, reflecting the lower BTC price) - about 19% above the current $12.62, a "Fair, mildly cheap" read rather than a screaming bargain.
For a miner, the coin price is the exact analogue of a commodity for a producer - it flows straight to the top line and is the single biggest lever on the equity. We score it per horizon and apply the mandatory Step 2b price-TREND overlay.
| Horizon | Read | Driver state |
|---|---|---|
| Historical (25%) | BTC fell from ~$100k (Q4-2025) → ~$76k realized (Q1-26) → ~$80k May sales → ~$61.5k now. A cyclical drawdown within a long-run uptrend. | Neutral (~50) |
| Current (50%) - LEVEL + TREND | Level: $61.5k sits above CLSK's ~$40-43k marginal cost (operations viable) but near all-in breakeven. Trend (Step 2b): spot below a falling 200-DMA (~$61.2k); 50-DMA (~$59.6k) also falling; today's +2.5% is a bounce within a downtrend; 4-8wk momentum negative. | Headwind (~42) |
| Forward (25%) | Base-case BTC ~$65k; post-2024-halving issuance is structurally lower (supply support), but network difficulty is rising (hashprice compression). Institutional/ETF adoption is the long-run tailwind. | Neutral (~55) |
Secondary driver - network difficulty / hashprice: rising global hashrate raises difficulty and compresses revenue per unit of hashrate, an additional structural headwind to margins independent of the BTC price.
Driver score 48 - Headwind (short) / Neutral (medium-long). Amplification: NOT eligible (needs ≥65 tailwind for STRONG BUY or ≤35 for STRONG SELL). The base BUY/HOLD/SELL is therefore unchanged by the driver. Confidence is reduced (-15) because crypto is inherently volatile and forecast reliability is low.
Regime Contested (Soft Landing / Stagflation co-lead 30/30). No GICS sector cleanly covers bitcoin miners; the sector-map read is a mild net Neutral-to-slight-Tailwind - risk-on tape (VIX 16.6, UST10Y 4.48%, fed funds 3.63) is marginally supportive for BTC/risk assets, but conviction is low-moderate. The REAL story is the Bitcoin driver, not the macro backdrop - so Economic Alignment is Neutral and does not amplify.
Source: sector-map · Macro report 2026-07-03
Multi-timeframe confluence: strongly bearish. Only the monthly (secular) chart is still an uptrend; every actionable lower timeframe has rolled over. The stock rallied from ~$8 (late March) to ~$18.8 (31 May) then gave it all back to $12.62 in a month, tracking BTC's slide - a textbook "higher-TF up, lower-TF breaking down" pullback.
| Timeframe | Trend | RSI | MACD | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend | 51 | +, rising | Secular structure intact; above rising EMA50 |
| Weekly | Downtrend | 48 | + but fading | Below EMA20; swing structure turning down |
| Daily | Downtrend | 33 | -, falling | Below SMA20/50/200 ($16/$15.1/$13.3); oversold, no reversal yet |
| Hourly | Strong downtrend | 32 | -, at lows | Support breakdown |
| 15-min | Strong downtrend | 41 | flat-neg | Micro supply |
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | CPI (YoY) | High | ~2.8% | 2.9% | Medium | Risk-appetite / BTC via real-rate path |
| 2026-07-29 | FOMC Rate Decision | High | Hold | 3.63% | Medium | Liquidity & risk-on/off regime for BTC |
| ~2026-08-07 | CLSK Q3 FY26 earnings | High | - | - | Yes | Hashrate, cost/BTC, AI-lease progress |
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06 | BTC price | ~$61.5k | - | Down ~-23% off May | Negative - drives mining revenue lower |
No high-impact event inside the next 7 days. The dominant 'events' for CLSK are the BTC price path itself and the monthly operational update; July CPI (~15th) and the FOMC (29th) matter only via risk appetite. Q3 FY26 earnings (~early Aug) is the next company-specific catalyst.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend | Bullish | 51 | +, rising | S:$8.0 R:$13.9/$17.9 | Resist. breakout | 0.1x |
| Weekly | Downtrend | Bearish | 48 | + fading | S:$8.0/$8.9 R:$14.5 | - | 0.7x |
| Daily | Downtrend | Bearish | 33 | -, falling | S:$11.1/$12.4 R:$15.0 | - | 1.0x |
| Hourly | Strong downtrend | Bearish | 32 | -, at lows | S:$12.3 R:$14.7 | Support breakdown | - |
| 15-min | Strong downtrend | Bearish | 41 | flat-neg | S:$12.3 R:$13.5 | Support breakdown | - |
| Confluence: Strongly Bearish · MTF Score 22 | |||||||
Only the secular monthly chart is still up. Weekly, daily and both intraday timeframes are down, with the daily below all three moving averages (SMA20 $16.0, SMA50 $15.1, SMA200 $13.3). This is a higher-TF-up / lower-TF-breaking-down pullback: the multi-month uptrend has NOT been broken on the monthly, but there is no evidence yet of a short-term bottom. Watch $9.65-$11.13 for a higher low, or a reclaim of ~$15 on >1.5x volume to flip the daily.
CLSK daily closes Jan-Jul 2026 (weekly sampled). The ~$8→$18.8 rally (Apr-May) and the collapse back to $12.62 (Jun-Jul) both tracked the bitcoin price.
BTC recovers toward $85k+ and reclaims its 200-DMA; CLSK scales to 60+ EH/s on schedule AND signs a first hyperscaler AI/HPC lease against its ~1 GW of spare power, earning a partial re-rate toward the infrastructure-miner multiple. Approaches the analyst high ($22.5). Trigger: BTC uptrend resumes + a signed lease.
BTC ranges $55k-70k; CLSK holds a ~30-40% cash mining margin, executes the 50→60 EH/s build, keeps buying back stock, and AI optionality stays talk-not-signed. Re-rates modestly from today's beaten-down level toward fair value ~$15 (below the $18.9 consensus, which looks stale vs the lower BTC price). The probability-weighted centre of gravity.
BTC breaks below $50k toward CLSK's all-in mining cost; cash margin compresses hard, rising difficulty worsens hashprice, the convertible overhang weighs, and the AI pivot fails to convert. Revisits the 52-week low (~$8). This is the LIVE risk while BTC trades below a falling 200-DMA (Step 2b).
Probability-weighted fair value ≈ $15.1 (0.25×$21 + 0.55×$15 + 0.20×$8). Modest positive skew around the $12.62 price - modest upside to base, with a real ~-37% tail if BTC rolls over. The whole distribution is a geared bet on the bitcoin price.
Forecast: WAIT (0 of 3 groups met). The Fundamental path is a single sub-condition away - price is already below fair value and there is no earnings blackout - so the trigger to watch is BTC: a reclaim of ~$61-64k (BTC clearing its falling 200-DMA with the 50-DMA turning up) flips the driver ≥50 and opens a Half-Size Fundamental entry. Separately, a daily reclaim of ~$15 on >1.5x volume, or a tested higher low off $9.65-$11.13, flips the Technical group. Estimated timing is BTC-path-dependent (days-to-weeks), not calendar-fixed - do not pre-position into the falling knife.
Forecast: No exit trigger is live - the stop ($7.80) is ~38% below the price. The thesis-invalidation floor is the BTC ~$45-50k line; with BTC ~$61.5k that is not live today but is the single dial to watch given the downtrend.
{
"ticker": "CLSK",
"exchange": "NASDAQ",
"exchange_ticker": "NASDAQ:CLSK",
"isin": "US18452B2097",
"api_ticker": "CLSK",
"company": "CleanSpark, Inc.",
"date": "2026-07-03",
"version": "v6",
"analysis_status": "donatien-pick",
"sector": "Bitcoin Mining (Digital Currency Mining + Energy Solutions)",
"lifecycle_stage": "high-growth",
"user_context": {
"horizon": null,
"allocation_pct": null,
"portfolio_role": null
},
"user_horizon": null,
"user_allocation_pct": null,
"portfolio_role": null,
"price_at_rating": 12.62,
"signal_short": "HOLD",
"signal_medium": "HOLD",
"signal_long": "HOLD",
"primary_signal": "HOLD",
"quality_score": 55,
"quality_detail": {
"industry_benchmark_name": "Mining cash-margin (BTC price - direct cost)/BTC",
"industry_benchmark_value": "~40% cash gross margin (Q2 FY26); all-in margin ~0 at BTC $61.5k",
"industry_benchmark_score": 60,
"moat_score": 34,
"roic_percentile_vs_peers": 45,
"capital_allocation": 78,
"management_skin_in_game": 60
},
"valuation_score": 58,
"valuation_detail": {
"fcf_yield": -20.0,
"implied_growth_rate": null,
"consensus_growth_rate": null,
"historical_valuation_decile": 4,
"mkt_cap_per_ehs_musd": 65,
"peer_mkt_cap_per_ehs": "MARA ~$56M, RIOT ~$206M, IREN ~$294M, CIFR ~$343M",
"btc_treasury_btc": 13470,
"btc_treasury_value_usd_bn": 0.83,
"note": "no clean earnings/FCF multiple resolves (GAAP net income dominated by BTC MTM); scored on relative mkt-cap/EH/s + asset (BTC-NAV) + analyst consensus"
},
"warranted_multiple": null,
"actual_multiple": null,
"val_multiple_basis": "mkt-cap per EH/s + BTC-NAV + analyst consensus (no clean earnings multiple - warranted-multiple anchor N/A)",
"discount_rate_r": null,
"risk_free_10y": 4.48,
"g_near": null,
"g_term": null,
"warranted_ratio": null,
"val_band": "na",
"timing_score": 34,
"timing_detail": {
"mtf_confluence": 22,
"mtf_confluence_label": "strongly_bearish",
"risk_reward_score": 40,
"relative_strength_vs_spy": "lagging (-33% 1m as BTC fell)",
"relative_strength_vs_sector": "in line with miner peers (all down)",
"catalyst_clustering_score": 60,
"dynamic_macro_weight": 0.2,
"daily_rsi": 32.69,
"position_52wk_pct": 24
},
"driver_name": "Bitcoin price",
"driver_score": 48,
"driver_label": "Headwind (short) / Neutral (medium-long)",
"driver_amplification_eligible": false,
"driver_commodity_trend": "BEARISH: BTC spot ~$61.5k (3 Jul, +2.5% intraday bounce) but down from ~$100k Q4-2025 and ~$80k realized in May; 50-DMA ~$59.6k and 200-DMA ~$61.2k BOTH FALLING; spot only just reclaiming the 50-DMA while at/below the falling 200-DMA; 4-8wk momentum negative. Per Step 2b the live downtrend caps the SHORT-horizon driver at Headwind, removes short amplification, and promotes the BTC-bear to a LIVE near-term risk.",
"secondary_driver": "Network difficulty / hashprice (rising difficulty compresses margin)",
"economic_alignment_stance": "Neutral",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 45,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Neutral",
"economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
"macro_report_date": "2026-07-03",
"nonop_pct_of_net_income": 73,
"clean_pe": null,
"clean_peg": null,
"earnings_quality_note": "Q2 FY2026 GAAP net loss -$378M was ~73% a non-operating BTC mark-to-market/impairment charge (totalOtherIncomeExpensesNet -$276M); in BTC-up quarters the same line produced large GAAP GAINS (Q3 FY25 +$257M net income). GAAP net income and any P/E off it are meaningless for CLSK - scored on mining operating economics.",
"competitive_share_trajectory": "stable",
"competitive_threat_level": "moderate",
"overall_confidence": 45,
"fair_value_est": 15.0,
"stop_loss": 7.8,
"target_price": 15.0,
"scenario_base_target": 15,
"scenario_bull_target": 21,
"scenario_bear_target": 8,
"scenario_probs": {
"bull": 25,
"base": 55,
"bear": 20
},
"analyst_consensus_target": 18.9,
"analyst_target_high": 22.5,
"analyst_target_low": 14.0,
"analyst_target_median": 18.0,
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 49.8,
"analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
"analyst_bullish_pct": 100,
"analyst_coverage_count": 11,
"analyst_targets_caveat": "11 Buy / 0 Hold / 0 Sell - unanimous (extreme consensus = contrarian caution); targets set Feb-Jun 2026 when BTC was $76k-100k, so likely stale vs current ~$61.5k BTC",
"fmp_rating": "C-",
"fmp_overall_score": 1,
"fmp_note": "C- reflects GAAP losses / negative ROE-ROA that are BTC-MTM-distorted, not operational failure - divergence noted",
"recent_upgrades_30d": 0,
"recent_downgrades_30d": 0,
"hard_gate_state": "caution",
"gates_triggered": [],
"gates_caution": [
"Financial Distress (leverage/converts, net-debt ~neutral counting BTC+cash)",
"Dilution/Accounting (BTC-MTM earnings-quality distortion - normalised)",
"Severe Driver Collapse watch (BTC $61.5k vs ~$43k marginal / ~$50-55k all-in cost; live given downtrend)"
],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"entry_groups_met": 0,
"entry_conviction": "Wait",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"key_ops": {
"hashrate_ehs": 50.0,
"hashrate_target_ehs": "60+ (fully funded)",
"btc_mined_may_2026": 671,
"btc_mined_apr_2026": 640,
"power_cost_per_kwh": 0.052,
"marginal_cost_per_btc": "~$40k-43k",
"all_in_cost_per_btc": "~$50k-55k+ (incl. rig depreciation + SG&A + interest)",
"cash_gross_margin_q2fy26": ">40%",
"btc_treasury": 13470,
"power_utilized_mw": 808,
"power_contracted_gw": 1.8,
"shares_out_m": 256,
"share_count_trend": "DOWN ~20% over 15 months (buybacks funded by $1.15B convert; NO ATM equity issuance)",
"convertible_debt_bn": 1.15,
"beta": 3.808
},
"next_update_date": "2026-07-17",
"next_update_basis": "default +14d - BTC price is the live dominant driver (monitor reclaim of the falling 200-DMA ~$61k vs a breakdown toward all-in mining cost); July CPI ~Jul 15 & FOMC Jul 29 next macro catalysts; CLSK July operational update + Q3 FY26 earnings ~early Aug",
"finder_ticker": null,
"finder_exchange": null
}
First report on NASDAQ:CLSK - a Donatien Pick (operator conviction), status Starting. Signal HOLD across all three horizons: a well-run, low-cost, shareholder-disciplined bitcoin miner that is cheap on hashrate/assets but caught in a strongly bearish tape with bitcoin - the dominant driver - in a live downtrend below a falling 200-DMA. The framework does not upgrade to BUY because Valuation is Fair (not Attractive; no clean multiple resolves) and Timing is Weak. Entry conviction WAIT; the trigger to watch is BTC reclaiming ~$61-64k or the stock reclaiming ~$15. No Do-Not-Buy trigger; net gate state CAUTION.