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NYSE:CF CF Industries Holdings, Inc.

ISIN: US1252691001 · NYSE, reported in USD · HQ Northbrook, IL · no Canadian listing
Basic Materials Agricultural Inputs — Nitrogen Analysis Status: Starting
NYSE · CEO: Christopher D. Bohn · Mkt Cap: US$16.2B · ~154M shares · Beta 0.38
$105.59
−$1.31 (−1.23%) · Jun 16, 2026
Signal v6 · 17:03 ET · USD
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HorizonSignalComposite ScoreConfidenceKey Driver
Short-term (1–3 mo) WAIT-FOR-EVENT 60 60% FOMC tomorrow (Jun 17, Warsh's first) — Materials is a High macro-sensitivity sector, the daily chart just broke down (RSI 37), and the Jun 15 Iran peace deal is unwinding the nitrogen war-premium. Don't chase into a live, hawkish-risk Fed.
Medium-term (6–12 mo) HOLD 66 60% Top-tier low-cost nitrogen producer, fortress balance sheet, ~10% FCF yield + a share count down ~15% in two years — but earnings sit at a cyclical peak (energy-shock-inflated), the war premium is deflating, and the stock is 26% off its March high. Accumulate on weakness toward $98–100; don't chase.
Long-term (3–5 yr) BUY 71 60% Quality dominates: a durable cheap-North-American-gas cost moat vs a global gas-set nitrogen price, high through-cycle ROIC, relentless buybacks, and the Blue Point / Donaldsonville low-carbon-ammonia growth book. Base BUY; STRONG amplification declined (economy is Neutral for CF, not a clean Tailwind).
Next update: 2026-06-18 — FOMC 2026-06-17 +1 trading day (nitrogen producer is High macro-sensitivity; high-impact rate decision inside the 3-day window).
Table of Contents
1Five-Pillar Scorecard 2Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status 3Pillar Detail: Business Quality 4Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness 5Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers 6Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment 7Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing 8Economic Event Risk 9Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis 10Price Chart (6-Month Daily) 11Scenario Summary 12Entry / Exit Rules 13Position Sizing Context 14Calibration Snapshot 15Data Sources & Methodology
1

Five-Pillar Scorecard

Five independent scores — Business Quality, Valuation Attractiveness, Entry/Exit Timing, Underlying Drivers, and Economic Alignment — each 0–100 with confidence. The per-horizon base BUY/HOLD/SELL comes from the three fundamental pillars (Quality / Valuation / Timing) via the Decision Matrix; the two context pillars then amplify a BUY to STRONG BUY only when both corroborate. CF is scored as a cyclical commodity producer (Materials) — the right lens is FCF yield, mid-cycle EV/EBITDA, through-cycle ROIC, net debt/EBITDA and the dividend/buyback, not a single-quarter EPS. The dominant Driver is the nitrogen price vs natural-gas cost spread: CF runs on cheap North American gas while global nitrogen prices are set by gas-disadvantaged producers abroad. All figures USD.

Business Quality

80
Low-cost nitrogen leader: 50% EBITDA margin, ~33% ROE, ND/EBITDA ~0.4×, share count −15% in 2yr; structural cheap-gas cost moat
Confidence: 80%

Valuation Attractiveness

64
Fair (top end): 4.8× trailing EV/EBITDA & ~10% FCF yield look cheap, but on peak-cycle earnings; mid-cycle ~6.5–7× is fair, P/B 3.0× full
Confidence: 68%

Entry/Exit Timing

51
Monthly/weekly still up, but a confirmed daily breakdown (RSI 37, support lost) 26% off the March high; tool confluence "bearish"
Confidence: 60%

Underlying Drivers

67
Nitrogen-vs-gas spread wide & very profitable (US gas ~$3 vs TTF ~$13/MMBtu) but softening off a war-premium peak
Confidence: 64% · STRONG-eligible (lower-end)

Economic Alignment

55
Neutral · Neutral pressure
Confidence: 62% · Macro report 2026-06-13

The pillars line up as a high-quality cyclical at a fair price, caught mid-pullback as its driver deflates: an excellent business (a durable cheap-gas cost moat, 50% EBITDA margins, a fortress balance sheet and a buyback that has shrunk the share count ~15% in two years) running on a still-wide but softening nitrogen-vs-gas spread, in a Neutral economy for CF specifically — the macro report's "Strong Outperform" Materials call is precious-metals/de-dollarisation-led, not nitrogen, and the Jun 15 Iran peace deal has just begun unwinding the energy premium that drove fertilizer prices. That is why the horizons diverge: over 3–5 years quality + the cost moat + capital return dominate (BUY); at 6–12 months the peak-cycle earnings, deflating war premium and fair valuation keep it a disciplined HOLD/accumulate; and a high-impact FOMC inside three trading days, on top of a fresh daily breakdown, overrides the short horizon to WAIT. STRONG amplification is deliberately declined — with the economy only Neutral for CF, the conservative both-must-agree test is not met.

2

Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status

Binary safety checks — liquidity, currency, accounting, debt, dilution, commodity floor, permitting, imminent-event blackout. Any triggered gate is a hard Do-Not-Buy regardless of composite score; caution gates are notes for sizing. For CF all gates are clear — a low-leverage, cash-generative, buyback-heavy producer with no single binary catalyst. The only amber note is a near-term Fed event that drives the short-term WAIT (a timing caution, not a structural one).
✅
Financial Distress — CLEAR
Net debt ~US$1.6B on ~US$3.7B TTM EBITDA → ND/EBITDA ~0.4×; interest coverage 16.8×; current ratio 3.54; cash ~US$2.0B. Among the strongest balance sheets in the sector.
✅
Earnings Event — CLEAR
Q1 reported May 6–7; next event is Q2 results ~early-August (>14 days out). ⚠️ exact date unverified (earnings-calendar API empty).
✅
Valuation Ceiling — CLEAR
Price $105.59 sits well below the high analyst target ($145) and ~5% below the median ($111.5); 4.8× trailing EV/EBITDA is nowhere near a 5-yr extreme. No ceiling trip.
✅
Accounting / Dilution — CLEAR (positive)
Share count is falling — ~182.7M (Q2-24) → ~154.2M (Q1-26), a ~15% reduction; ~US$1.7B left on a US$2B buyback. Dilution is the opposite of the risk here. Negligible SBC; dividend covered (payout ~18%).
✅
Regulatory / Binary — CLEAR
No near-term binary event. The Yazoo City ammonia outage is an operational headwind (FY26 ammonia ~9.5Mt), managed not binary; Blue Point is a funded multi-year build.
✅
Severe Driver Collapse — CLEAR
Driver 67. Global urea ~US$401/t and CF's cash cost (cheap ~US$3/MMBtu gas) sit far apart — the cash margin is wide. Nowhere near the ≤15 commodity-floor gate.

Do-Not-Buy triggers: none fired. Leverage+rising-rates (ND/EBITDA ~0.4×, mostly fixed/long-dated, 16.8× coverage) ✓ · Valuation extreme (4.8× EV/EBITDA, not top-decile) ✓ · Persistent negative earnings revisions (2026E estimates have risen on the tight market — one Mizuho downgrade in March is isolated, not a trend) ✓ · Insider-selling spike (none observed) ✓ · Structural threat (none) ✓. Hard-gate state: CLEAR (✓).

3

Pillar Detail: Business Quality

A deep dive into the Quality score for a cyclical commodity producer: cost position vs the commodity price, margins, balance-sheet strength, ROIC/ROE through the cycle, and capital allocation. Sector: Agricultural Inputs (nitrogen); lifecycle: Mature cash-cow with an embedded low-carbon growth book. The right metrics are cash margin (nitrogen price minus gas-based cash cost), EBITDA margin, FCF, net debt and the buyback — emphasising the structural cheap-North-American-gas advantage, not a single elevated quarter.
Business Quality — Pillar Score
A best-in-class nitrogen producer. Its plants run on cheap North American natural gas (~US$3/MMBtu) while the global cost curve is set by producers paying ~US$13/MMBtu — a structural, durable cost moat that drives a 50% EBITDA margin, ~33% ROE on common equity and elite cash generation. It carries a near-fortress balance sheet (ND/EBITDA ~0.4×) and returns cash relentlessly (share count −15% in two years). The caps: it is a price-taker on a cyclical commodity with no pricing power, a low-growth core, and meaningful single-product (nitrogen) concentration.
80
Confidence 80% · base 80 → adj 80

Lifecycle & Sector Classification

Sector: Agricultural Inputs — Nitrogen (Basic Materials). CF makes anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, UAN and ammonium nitrate, plus hydrogen/industrial nitrogen products; ~all earnings flow from the spread between global nitrogen selling prices and its gas-based production cost. Lifecycle: Mature cash-cow — minimal core volume growth (production governed by its existing North American ammonia complexes), high and cyclical cash generation, a modest ~1.9% dividend, an outsized buyback, and a funded low-carbon growth option (Blue Point ammonia JV, Donaldsonville carbon capture). Scored on producer metrics — cash margin, EBITDA margin, FCF, balance sheet — not on the cyclically-distorted trailing P/E (TTM EPS $11.40 is energy-shock-inflated).

Sub-SignalValueSector BenchmarkScoreRationale
Profitability vs peersEBITDA 50.1% · op 35.7% · net 23.7% (TTM)Top tier among nitrogen producers86Cheap-gas feedstock lifts margins above gas-disadvantaged global peers; FMP ROE & ROA sub-scores both 5/5.
Cash margin (benchmark)Urea ~US$401/t vs cheap-gas cash cost; spread wideWide margin over cash cost = strong82The structural edge — see benchmark card. Margin off its war-premium peak but still very profitable.
Cash generationOCF/sales ~36%; FCF/share $10.51 (~US$1.6B); P/FCF ~10×FCF yield >8% = very attractive84Elite free-cash conversion even after ~US$1.3B FY26 capex (incl. Blue Point). Funds buyback + dividend with room to spare.
Balance-sheet healthNet debt ~US$1.6B · ND/EBITDA ~0.4× · int. cov 16.8×ND/EBITDA <1.0× = strongest tier88Conservatively geared; current ratio 3.54; ample dry powder through the cycle.
Capital return / shareholder yieldShares −15% in 2yr; ~US$1.7B buyback left; 1.9% divThrough-cycle yield ~8–9%85A standout — management consistently buys back stock at low multiples, compounding per-share value.

INDUSTRY BENCHMARK: Nitrogen price vs natural-gas cost margin

Global urea ~US$401/t (Jun 2026; −29% MoM off the war-premium peak, +5% YoY)  |  Henry Hub gas ~US$3/MMBtu vs European TTF ~US$13/MMBtu equiv  |  CF runs on the cheap North American gas while the marginal global tonne is set by the dear gas.
Rating: STRONG — a ~US$10/MMBtu (≈4×) structural feedstock advantage that persists even after nitrogen prices soften. Benchmark Score: 82/100.
Context: this is the entire thesis. When an energy shock lifts global gas (and therefore the gas-set nitrogen price), CF's cost barely moves and the spread widens — which is why fertilizer stocks rallied into the Iran war and why, conversely, the Jun 15 peace deal pulled them back. The cash margin is lower and more cyclical than a royalty model, but the cost edge is durable as long as North American gas stays structurally cheap (LNG-export growth is the watch-item).

Competitive Moat Scorecard

Pricing Power

35
Pure price-taker on global nitrogen

Network Effects

50
n/a for a commodity producer (neutral)

Switching Costs

50
Fungible product — n/a (neutral)

Cost Advantage

88
Cheap NA gas + scale + logistics = durable low cost

Intangible Assets

58
Irreplaceable ammonia complexes; CCS/45Q position

Moat average ≈ 56. The genuine, durable edge is a structural cost advantage (88) — North American gas feedstock plus the scale and logistics of a large installed ammonia base that would cost many billions and years to replicate — backed by hard-to-permit physical assets and a carbon-capture position (intangibles 58, helped by 45Q tax credits on the Donaldsonville CCS). Like any commodity maker it cannot set the nitrogen price, so pricing power is (correctly) low and network/switching effects don't apply. The moat is the cost curve position, not the income statement.

ROIC & Capital Allocation

Component (weight)ReadingScore
ROIC / returns (40%)ROE ~33% on common, ROA strong; FMP ROE & ROA sub-scores both 5/5, DCF 5/5. High and well above cost of capital through the cycle, though cyclical with the nitrogen spread.84
Capital-allocation discipline (30%)Exemplary recent record: huge, valuation-disciplined buybacks (share count −15% in 2yr at single-digit P/Es), a covered dividend, low leverage, and a measured growth bet (40% of the US$4B Blue Point JV, de-risked with JERA/Mitsui offtake + Japanese CfD support). The earlier green-hydrogen write-off is a small blemish.82
Management skin-in-the-game (30%)CEO Christopher Bohn (former CFO; continuity). Comp incentive-aligned to ROIC/cash return; negligible SBC dilution; no abnormal insider selling observed.66

FMP financial-health rating: A− (4/5) — DCF 5, ROE 5, ROA 5, with the drags being a quirky D/E sub-score (1 — overstated; actual ND/EBITDA is ~0.4×) and the valuation sub-scores (P/E 3, P/B 2). The independent rating corroborates the high Quality read and previews the Valuation tension below: a strong, superbly-run business that is not statistically cheap on book.

4

Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness

A deep dive into the Valuation score: producer-appropriate multiples on a mid-cycle basis (the discipline a cyclical demands), the FCF/shareholder-yield anchor, reverse-DCF implied growth, embedded optionality, analyst targets, grades and the FMP cross-reference. The central read: CF screens genuinely cheap on trailing numbers (4.8× EV/EBITDA, ~10% FCF yield) — but those numbers sit on peak-cycle earnings; normalise them and it is fair, at the top of the Fair band, not a bargain.
Valuation Attractiveness — Pillar Score
Fair (top end). The trailing screen is seductive — 4.8× EV/EBITDA, 9.3× P/E, ~10% FCF yield, an ~8–9% through-cycle shareholder yield and a price ~5% below the analyst median. But analysts see EPS falling from a 2026E ~$17 peak toward ~$7–9 by 2029–30 as the nitrogen spike normalises; on that mid-cycle earnings power CF trades ~6.5–7× EV/EBITDA and ~12–13× P/E — fair for a top-quality producer — and P/B (3.0×) is full. A modest embedded-optionality tilt (Blue Point / CCS) nudges it up. Supported by cash return, not a deep-value bargain.
64
Confidence 68% · base 60 → +4 optionality → 64
MultipleCurrentReferenceRead
EV/EBITDA — trailing4.8×Nitrogen peers ~5–7×Optically cheap — but on TTM EBITDA (~US$3.7B) inflated by the energy-shock spike.
EV/EBITDA — mid-cycle~6.5–7×On normalised EBITDA ~US$2.6–3.0BThe honest read: fair for a top-tier low-cost producer, not a discount.
Trailing P/E9.3×Cyclical — use with careLow because TTM EPS ($11.40) is near a cyclical high; mid-cycle ~12–13×.
P/B3.0×~33% ROE supports a premium, but…Full on book — the statistical-cheapness screen fails; typical after a big run.
FCF yield (anchor)~10% trailing / ~6–7% mid-cycle>8% very attractive; 5–8% attractiveGenuinely strong cash yield even normalised — the core of the support.
Shareholder yield~8–9% (buyback + 1.9% div)Standout for the sectorRelentless buyback compounds per-share value through the cycle.

The cyclical-earnings trap — why we don't call 4.8× EV/EBITDA "cheap"

CF's trailing multiples are flattered by a cyclical peak. The 2026 nitrogen market is "severely tight" (war-related supply disruptions, export curbs, the Yazoo outage), which lifted Q1-26 adjusted EBITDA to US$983M and pushed 2026E EPS consensus to ~US$17. Analysts then have EPS declining to ~US$11.5 (2027E), ~US$9.1 (2028E) and ~US$6.5–7.4 (2029–30E) as prices normalise. Anchoring on the peak would make almost any cyclical look cheap right before it de-rates. We therefore mark Valuation on mid-cycle earnings power (~US$2.6–3.0B EBITDA, ~US$8–10 EPS), where CF is fair (~6.5–7× EV/EBITDA, ~12–13× P/E). What keeps the score at the top of Fair rather than the middle is the genuinely high through-cycle FCF yield (~6–7%) and shareholder yield (~8–9%), plus the cost moat — real, durable support that a P/B-only screen misses.

Reverse DCF / Implied Growth

At $105.59 with ~US$1.6B trailing FCF and modest net leverage, the market is roughly capitalising normalised through-cycle cash generation at a high-single-digit discount rate with little assumed long-run volume growth — i.e. it is not extrapolating the 2026 peak, and it is not paying up for Blue Point. Implied growth sits below the sector's achievable rate, so the stock isn't priced for optimism; the flip side is that the cheap-looking forward multiple is only real if nitrogen normalises to a healthy (not crashed) level. That balance — cheap on the peak, fair on the cycle, full on book, ~5% below a Buy-but-cautious consensus — is why Valuation is Fair (top end) rather than Attractive.

Embedded Optionality / Free Upside

The in-production nitrogen base justifies the bulk of the ~$106 price. On top, the buyer gets options the market discounts heavily: Net: optionality is a +4 tilt (raising base 60 → 64) and a reason to accumulate on weakness — not a reason to call full-book, peak-earnings multiples "cheap."

Analyst Price-Target & Grades Consensus

MetricValue (USD)vs $105.59Note
Consensus / median$111.88 / $111.50+5.6% / +5.6%Modest upside to the median — "fairly valued" territory per the analyst lens.
High / Low$145.00 / $72.00high +37%Very wide spread (deep disagreement on the cycle) — reduces target conviction.
Coverage / recency6 last-qtr ($128.8 avg) · 23 last-yr ($101.9)No new targets in the last month; recent (last-quarter) targets ran higher (~$129) before the pullback. Treat as moderately stale.
Grades consensus"Buy" — 20 Buy · 15 Hold · 6 Sell49% bullish → a Buy-leaning but cautious consensus (37% holds + 15% sells). Recent actions all "maintain" except one Mizuho downgrade to Underperform (Mar 18) — no fresh momentum.

Read honestly: the price-target signal is mildly positive (+5.6% to a ~$111.5 median) but the spread is huge ($72–$145) and the feed is a touch stale, so it is a low-conviction support rather than a strong tailwind. The grades are a Buy-but-hedged consensus (49% bullish, a third on Hold) with no recent upgrade momentum — exactly the "good business, watch the cycle" stance that keeps the medium horizon a HOLD/accumulate rather than a BUY. FMP health rating A−, dragged only by the (overstated) leverage sub-score and the valuation sub-scores — again, "high-quality business, fair price."

5

Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers

The dominant external force CF is tethered to — the nitrogen price vs natural-gas cost spread (CF's cheap North American gas vs the global gas-set nitrogen price), with corn acreage/price as the demand secondary. A context pillar: it does not change the fundamental pillar scores, but a tailwind ≥65 makes the name eligible to amplify a base BUY to STRONG BUY (only if the economy agrees, which here it does not). This section scores the three horizons and names the thesis-invalidation floor.
Primary Driver: Nitrogen-vs-Gas Spread (+ corn demand)
The spread between global nitrogen prices and CF's gas-based cash cost is the whole P&L. Right now: US Henry Hub ~US$3/MMBtu vs European TTF ~US$13/MMBtu equiv → a wide, very profitable spread, but nitrogen prices are softening off a war-premium peak. Secondary: corn acreage/price (US corn ~95.3M acres, −3% YoY; price ~US$4.40/bu) sets nitrogen demand.
67
Tailwind (lower-end)
Horizon (weight)ReadingScore
Historical (25%)The past 12–18 months were a strong tailwind: an energy/supply shock (Iran war, export curbs, outages) tightened the global nitrogen market and lifted prices well above CF's cheap-gas cost — driving Q1-26 adj EBITDA to US$983M and the stock to a US$142 high in March.72
Current state (50%)Still favourable: US gas ~US$3/MMBtu vs TTF ~US$13 keeps the spread wide and the cash margin high, and management sees the market "tight through 2027" (India-led demand). But the absolute nitrogen level is rolling off — urea ~US$401/t, −29% MoM — and the Jun 15 Iran peace deal removed the war premium (TTF −9%). Net mildly positive, off the peak.68
Forward outlook (25%)Normalising: the peace dividend deflates the energy premium, corn acreage is down 3% (mild demand headwind, some shift to lower-N soybeans), and LNG-export growth is a long-run risk to cheap US gas. Offsetting: structurally tight supply, India demand, and the durable ~4× gas-cost edge. Balanced-to-mildly-soft.60

Driver score = 72·0.25 + 68·0.50 + 60·0.25 ≈ 67 → Tailwind (lower-end), amplification-eligible (≥65). It is a genuine but moderating tailwind: the structural spread (cheap NA gas vs dear global gas) is intact and very profitable, but the cyclical level is coming off a war-premium peak just as the catalyst (the Iran conflict) is being removed — the mirror image of a commodity wind that is still strengthening. It does not change the base BUY/HOLD/SELL; it would enable a base BUY → STRONG BUY only if the economy pushed the same way — which it does not (§6 is Neutral for CF), so no amplification is applied at any horizon. Thesis-invalidation floor: a sustained collapse in the spread — either US gas spiking toward global parity (a structural LNG-driven move) or global nitrogen falling toward CF's cash cost — would compress margins and the multiple; the Severe-Driver-Collapse gate only arms if urea fell to CF's cash cost (fanciful at ~US$401/t). Confidence 64 (commodity volatility; spread clear but the absolute level is normalising fast).

6

Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment

How the current economic climate sits relative to CF, read from the latest Macro-Economic report (2026-06-13, 3 days old). It classifies the macro pressure as Tailwind / Neutral / Headwind and frames a long entry as Trend-Following / Contrarian / Neutral with 0–100 conviction. The pressure is the second amplifier — and for CF it reads Neutral, which is why STRONG amplification is not available.
Economic Alignment — Stance & Conviction
Neutral · Pressure: Neutral
55
Conviction

CF is not a named line in the macro report's watchlist, so the read comes from the sector & asset maps: CF is Materials (XLB), which the report rates Strong Outperform / SO / SO with capital flow IN / IN / IN — the best-positioned sector. But that headline does not transfer cleanly to CF. XLB's Strong-Outperform rating is heavily precious-metals-led (GLD SO/SO/SO; the regime is a de-dollarisation/stagflation gold story) — CF is a nitrogen/agriculture name with no gold exposure. CF's real macro lever is the energy-shock/stagflation leg (high global gas → wide nitrogen spread) and the agriculture complex (DBA is only O/N/O). Critically, the report is dated Jun 13 — before the Jun 15 Iran peace deal that began unwinding exactly the energy premium the bull case relied on. On CF's own facts, the net pressure is Neutral, not the clean Tailwind the XLB headline implies.

Anchoring on the Medium horizon, the honest read is a Neutral economy for CF: a supportive sector-flow backdrop (Materials rotation IN) and an energy/stagflation regime that structurally favours a low-cost nitrogen producer, offset by (a) the precious-vs-fertilizer distinction that hollows out the XLB headline, and (b) the just-announced de-escalation that removes the near-term premium. Stance is Neutral (no clear trend-following or contrarian edge), conviction 55. Amplification effect: because the pressure is Neutral, the conservative both-must-agree test fails — the driver's lower-end Tailwind (67) is not applied, so the base BUY at the Long horizon stays a BUY (no STRONG BUY) and Medium stays HOLD. Source: sector/asset map; macro report 2026-06-13. Confidence 62%.

7

Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing

A deep dive into the Timing score: risk-reward anchored to the stop, relative strength, macro overlay at High sector-weight (Materials), sentiment from grade actions and news, and the catalyst cluster. The picture is a pullback within a still-intact higher-timeframe uptrend — monthly/weekly up, but the daily has confirmed a breakdown (RSI 37) 26% below the March high, with a Fed event one day out.
Entry/Exit Timing — Pillar Score
Mixed/transitioning. The monthly and weekly trends are still up (monthly resistance breakout, RSI 56), but the daily has broken support and rolled over (RSI 37.2, below the SMA20/50, holding above the rising SMA200 at $98.66) and the tool reads overall confluence "bearish." Price is ~45% up its 52-week range — i.e. 26% off the $141.96 March high and ~7% above the 200-DMA — so it is mid-pullback, not extended. Sub-signals net ~52; held to 51 for the confirmed daily breakdown into a Fed event.
51
Confidence 60% · MTF 54 · macro 50 · catalyst 60
Sub-signal (weight)ReadingScore
MTF trend (30%)Monthly & weekly uptrend (both resistance breakouts); but daily "weakening" with a confirmed support breakdown (RSI 37, MACD negative, below SMA20/50), and hourly/15-min in strong downtrends. Tool confluence: "bearish." Weighted MTF ≈ 54.54
Risk-reward (20%)Price $105.59 vs a logical stop near $95 (~2 daily ATR; ATR ~$5.0). Better entry sits at the $98–100 / 200-DMA shelf below. Buying here is mid-pullback with momentum still falling — neutral, not favourable.48
Macro overlay (20%, High sensitivity)Materials in-favour (rotation IN) but the CF-relevant energy premium is deflating (peace deal) and a hawkish Fed + firm USD is a near-term cross-current. Net neutral.50
Sentiment (15%)Grades "Buy" but hedged (49% bullish), no recent upgrade momentum, one March Mizuho downgrade; news notes the peace-deal pullback and "undervalued after the dip" framing. Mixed.50
Catalysts (15%)No earnings within 14 days (Q2 ~early-Aug); no clustered company events. Calm — barring the macro FOMC overlay handled in §8.60

Relative strength & range: CF is still up ~35% YTD and ~20% over one year, but it has corrected ~26% from the US$141.96 March high and is down ~5–6% over the past month as the war premium unwinds. It sits ~45% up its 52-week range (US$75.42–US$141.96) — mid-range, not extended — and just above the rising 200-DMA (US$98.66). Position-risk: the daily breakdown argues against chasing; a pullback into the US$98–100 / 200-DMA shelf (or a daily reclaim of the ~US$112 area on volume) would offer a materially better entry. Beta is low (0.38) and daily ATR ~US$5.0 (~4.8%) — a volatile commodity name despite the low beta, so patience near a fresh breakdown into a Fed event is warranted short-term.

8

Economic Event Risk

The next ~14 days of high-impact US macro releases that can swing a growth/rate/energy-sensitive nitrogen producer, plus last week's surprises. Materials is a High macro-sensitivity sector, so a high-impact release within 3 trading days triggers a WAIT-FOR-EVENT short-term override — which is exactly what the Jun 17 FOMC does here.
DateEventImpactForecastPreviousRelevant?
2026-06-17FOMC rate decision + projections + presser (Warsh's first)HighHold 3.75%3.75%✅ Critical — Materials is rate/USD/growth-sensitive; macro flags ~25% hike risk & removal of easing language → USD/real-yield up = commodity headwind
2026-06-17Retail Sales MoM (May)High+0.5%+0.5%⚠️ Indirect — US growth/risk read
2026-06-25Core PCE MoM (May)High+0.2%+0.2%✅ Inflation → Fed path → real yields → commodity complex
weeklyEIA Natural Gas StorageMedium——✅ Direct — Henry Hub gas is CF's feedstock cost; a spike narrows the spread
monthlyUSDA WASDE / corn balanceMedium——✅ Direct — corn price/acreage drives US nitrogen demand

Recent surprises & events (last 7 days): the dominant item is the Jun 15 US–Iran preliminary peace framework, which sent European TTF gas −9% and pulled fertilizer stocks (CF/Nutrien/Mosaic) lower — a direct near-term headwind to the nitrogen war-premium. US June data softened (Empire State 5.7 vs 14; Housing Starts −15.4%; Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2.8% from 3.3%), a stagflation-leaning tape that keeps the Fed hawkish-on-inflation even as growth cools. Override: because Materials is High-sensitivity and a high-impact FOMC is <3 trading days out, the short-term signal is set to WAIT-FOR-EVENT regardless of composite, and the report's next-update is pinned to FOMC +1 day (2026-06-18).

9

Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis

Trend, RSI, MACD and breakout status across monthly → 15-min (Polygon, USD), plus a confluence read. The pattern is a still-intact higher-timeframe uptrend in a pullback: monthly/weekly up, but the daily has confirmed a support breakdown and the intraday frames have turned down — constructive on the big picture, weak in the short term.
TimeframeTrendRSIMACDKey S/R (USD)BreakoutVol
MonthlyUptrend ↑56.1+, risingS 75.4 · R 141.96Resistance breakout0.56×
WeeklyUptrend ↑47.8−, fadingS 109.7 / 81.7 · R 130.4 / 141.96(prior) breakout0.32×
DailyWeakening →37.2−, fallingS 98.66 (200-DMA) · SMA50 120.0 · R 112.4Support breakdown1.18×
HourlyStrong downtrend ↓43.6−, basingS 104.9 · R 107.5Support breakdown—
15-minStrong downtrend ↓45.3−, basingS 104.9 · R 107.0Support breakdown—
Confluence: higher timeframes still up, lower timeframes broken down — weighted MTF score ≈ 54 (tool flag: "bearish"). A pullback within a secular uptrend, not a trend reversal yet.

The monthly remains a clean uptrend (resistance breakout, RSI 56, MACD rising), and the weekly is still up though fading — the secular bull off the December US$77 low is intact. The damage is on the daily and below: a confirmed support breakdown, RSI 37 (approaching oversold), price below the SMA20/50 and ~13% under the SMA50 (US$120), but holding ~7% above the rising 200-DMA (US$98.66). Net read: this is a meaningful pullback as the nitrogen premium deflates, not (yet) a broken trend. A bounce off the US$98–100 shelf — or, failing that, a deeper flush toward it — is the constructive entry; chasing $106 into a fresh breakdown and a live Fed is not.

10

Price Chart (6-Month Daily)

Six months of daily closes (NYSE:CF, USD) with a 50-day SMA and the key levels marked. The visual companion to §9 — the climb from the ~US$77 December low, the parabolic March spike to the US$141.96 high on the nitrogen/war premium, and the ~26% give-back to ~US$106 as that premium unwinds are all visible at a glance.
11

Scenario Summary

Bull / Base / Bear 12-month price paths (USD) with triggers and probability weights. The base case is the probability-weighted centre of gravity; bull and bear hinge mostly on the nitrogen-vs-gas spread (how tight the market stays, where US gas goes) and on whether the Fed/USD spike real yields. A low beta (0.38), an ~8–9% shareholder yield and a low-cost position cushion the downside.

Bull · 30% · $135 (+28%)

Nitrogen stays "tight through 2027" (India demand, supply outages) while US gas stays cheap → the spread holds wide; the buyback keeps shrinking the float; Blue Point hits milestones. CF re-rates back toward its March US$142 high as mid-cycle earnings prove higher than feared.

Base · 45% · $118 (+12%)

Nitrogen normalises off the spike but the spread stays healthily profitable; CF compounds via buyback + dividend and grinds back toward the US$112–120 area as the market accepts ~US$8–10 mid-cycle EPS. Accumulation on dips toward US$98–100 pays.

Bear · 25% · $88 (−17%)

The peace dividend + soft corn acreage + new global supply keep nitrogen falling, and/or US gas firms (LNG pull) narrowing the spread; a hawkish Fed/strong USD pressures the complex. CF de-rates toward the US$88 / 200-DMA zone — a cyclical reset, not distress; the low-cost base stays profitable and the buyback cushions.

12

Entry / Exit Rules

Mechanical conditions for entry and exit with specific USD levels: five independent entry checks, a hard stop, thesis invalidation, and scaled profit-takes. Converts the scores into an action plan. At $105.59, 2 of 5 entry criteria are met and 0 of 3 exit criteria are live — consistent with "own it for quality + cash return over the long run, accumulate into weakness toward $98–100, don't chase a fresh breakdown into the Fed."

Entry Rules — 2 of 5 met

✅ 1 (Valuation): price ≤ fair value $117 → MET ($105.59).
✅ 2 (Driver/clear-calendar): driver ≥50 AND no earnings within 7 days → MET (driver 67; next results ~early-Aug).
⬜ 3 (Value/support entry): pull back into the $98–100 / 200-DMA shelf OR daily close above the ~$112.4 swing high on >1.5× volume → NOT MET ($105.59, mid-pullback, below $112.4).
⬜ 4 (Momentum): daily RSI 40–65 AND MACD histogram positive ≥2 days → NOT MET (RSI 37; daily MACD histogram negative).
⬜ 5 (Event-clear): no high-impact macro/earnings event within 3 trading days → NOT MET (FOMC Jun 17).

Exit Rules — 0 of 3 live

⬜ 1 (Hard stop): 2 consecutive daily closes below $95 (under the $98.66 200-DMA / $98–100 support shelf) → not triggered.
⬜ 2 (Thesis invalidation): the nitrogen-vs-gas spread collapses — US gas spikes toward global parity OR global urea falls toward CF's cash cost — AND a hard gate trips → not triggered (spread ~$10/MMBtu; urea ~$401/t).
⬜ 3 (Profit-take): price reaches $145 (high analyst target) / re-rates above ~$135 AND RSI >70 → trim → not triggered.

Key levels (USD): Stop $95 · Support $98.66 (200-DMA) / $98–100 / $75.42 (52-wk low) · Fair value ~$117 · Resistance $112.4 / $120 (SMA50) / $141.96 (52-wk high) · Analyst median $111.5 · consensus $111.9 · high $145 · low $72.

Imagine you act at the current price $105.59 · as of Jun 16, 2026 17:03 ET

What if you bought now?

You'd be risking ~$11 / −10% to the hard stop to gain ~$12 (+12%) to base / ~$29 (+28%) to bull.
  • Risking: downside to stop $95 (−10%); bear case $88 (−17%); plus entry rules NOT yet met — buying into a confirmed daily breakdown (RSI 37) one day ahead of a hawkish-risk FOMC, with the nitrogen war-premium actively deflating.
  • Gaining: base $118 (+12%) · bull $135 (+28%); plus an ~8–9% through-cycle shareholder yield (buyback + 1.9% dividend) compounding while you wait, and the free Blue Point / CCS growth optionality you now own.
  • Net: risk-reward ≈ 1.1:1 to base, ~2.6:1 to bull. Defensible for long-horizon, quality-oriented capital, but waiting one day past the Fed (ideally a pullback toward $98–100) materially improves the entry — hence the short-term WAIT and medium-term HOLD/accumulate.

What if you sold now?

You'd be giving up +12% base-case upside plus an ~8–9% shareholder yield to protect against a ~17% bear-case drawdown.
  • Giving up: upside to $118 (+12%) / $135 (+28%); a heavy buyback + 1.9% dividend compounding; selling below fair value (~$117) and the structural cost moat + Blue Point growth.
  • Protecting: capital if the bear case ($88) plays out on a deflating nitrogen spread / hawkish Fed. Exit rules currently triggered? None.
  • Net: no mechanical reason to sell — this is a hold/accumulate zone for a high-quality, cash-returning cyclical, not a distribution zone.
13

Position Sizing Context

A framework for translating conviction into allocation given risk per share and sector volatility. Illustrative only — not advice. No risk budget or portfolio role was supplied in this batch run, so an explicit % allocation is intentionally omitted.

Position sizing not computed — no portfolio allocation or role was specified for this batch analysis. Volatility context for when you do size: beta ~0.38 vs SPY (low — nitrogen demand is relatively inelastic), but daily ATR ~US$5.0 (~4.8%) is high in absolute terms (this is a volatile commodity equity despite the low beta — it ran from US$77 to US$142 and back to US$106 inside six months). Catalyst clustering is calm (score ~60) apart from the FOMC overlay, so no clustering-based size cut applies. For long-horizon capital, a staggered 3-tranche entry — e.g. on a daily reclaim/close above ~US$112 on volume, into a pullback at the US$98–100 / 200-DMA shelf, and at a US$95 stop-zone retest — would average in across the cyclical pullback rather than chasing a fresh breakdown.

14

Calibration Snapshot

Machine-readable snapshot of every score, confidence, key level and signal override, saved alongside the HTML as calibration-CF-20260616-1703.json so the next run can compute deltas and the watchlist monitor can render the Hard-Gate / Entry / Exit cells without parsing HTML. This is the first report for CF — no prior calibration, so no "Changes Since Last Report" box.
{
  "ticker": "CF", "exchange_ticker": "NYSE:CF", "isin": "US1252691001",
  "company": "CF Industries Holdings, Inc.", "date": "2026-06-16", "version": "v6",
  "analysis_status": "on-going", "finder_ticker": "CF", "finder_exchange": "🇺🇸 NYSE",
  "section": "Agriculture & Fertilizer", "lifecycle_stage": "mature_cash_cow",
  "price_at_rating_usd": 105.59, "currency": "USD", "shares_out_m": 154,
  "market_cap_usd": 16223222400, "market_cap_verified": true,
  "signal_short": "WAIT_FOR_EVENT", "signal_medium": "HOLD", "signal_long": "BUY",
  "composite_short": 60, "composite_medium": 66, "composite_long": 71,
  "quality_score": 80, "valuation_score": 64, "timing_score": 51,
  "driver_score": 67, "driver_label": "Tailwind (lower-end)",
  "economic_alignment_stance": "Neutral", "economic_alignment_conviction": 55,
  "economic_alignment_pressure": "Neutral", "macro_report_date": "2026-06-13",
  "confidence": {"quality": 80, "valuation": 68, "timing": 60, "driver": 64, "economic": 62, "overall": 60},
  "hard_gate_state": "clear", "gates_triggered": [], "gates_caution": [], "do_not_buy_triggers": [],
  "amplification": {"short": "overridden_WAIT (FOMC <3 trading days)", "medium": "HOLD (base High-Quality + Fair-Valuation + Neutral-Timing; no amplification)", "long": "BUY (STRONG declined — economy Neutral for CF, not a clean Tailwind; driver 67 eligible but unused)"},
  "driver_basis": "nitrogen price vs natural-gas cost spread (US Henry Hub ~$3 vs TTF ~$13/MMBtu) + corn demand",
  "commodity_spot": {"urea_usd_t": 401, "urea_mom_pct": -28.7, "henry_hub_usd_mmbtu": 3.0, "ttf_usd_mmbtu_equiv": 13, "corn_usd_bu": 4.40, "us_corn_acres_m": 95.3, "source": "web search Jun 2026"},
  "fundamentals_ttm": {"revenue_usd": 7407000000, "ebitda_usd": 3708000000, "ebitda_margin_pct": 50.1, "net_income_usd": 1758000000, "eps_ttm": 11.40, "ev_ebitda": 4.80, "pe": 9.26, "fcf_yield_pct": 10.0, "pb": 3.05, "roe_pct": 33, "net_debt_ebitda": 0.43, "interest_coverage": 16.8, "shareholder_yield_pct": 8.5, "share_count_2yr_change_pct": -15, "fmp_rating": "A-"},
  "valuation_detail": {"ev_ebitda_midcycle": 6.75, "pe_midcycle": 12.5, "eps_2026e": 17.14, "eps_2030e": 7.36, "analyst_target_median_usd": 111.5, "analyst_target_consensus_usd": 111.88, "analyst_target_high_usd": 145, "analyst_target_low_usd": 72, "analyst_target_vs_price_pct": 5.6, "grades_consensus": "Buy", "bullish_pct": 49, "optionality_tilt": 4},
  "timing_detail": {"mtf_confluence": 54, "mtf_tool_flag": "bearish", "risk_reward_score": 48, "catalyst_clustering_score": 60, "dynamic_macro_weight": 0.20, "rel_strength_52w_pct": 45, "monthly_rsi": 56.1, "daily_rsi": 37.2, "beta": 0.38, "atr_daily": 5.03},
  "fair_value_est_usd": 117, "stop_loss_usd": 95, "target_base_usd": 118, "target_bull_usd": 135, "target_bear_usd": 88,
  "key_levels_usd": {"sma200": 98.66, "sma50": 120.0, "support": [98.66, 95, 75.42], "resistance": [112.4, 120, 141.96], "high_52w": 141.96, "low_52w": 75.42},
  "entry_criteria_total": 5, "entry_criteria_met": 2, "exit_criteria_total": 3, "exit_criteria_met": 0,
  "focus_qualifies": false, "focus_reason": "Short-term signal is WAIT-FOR-EVENT (not a live buy) and only 2 of 5 entry criteria are met (< half).",
  "next_update_date": "2026-06-18", "next_check_date": "2026-06-18",
  "next_update_basis": "FOMC 2026-06-17 +1 trading day (nitrogen producer is High macro-sensitivity; high-impact rate decision inside the 3-day window)"
}
15

Data Sources & Methodology

Full audit trail of every data source used, with OK / partial / fail indicators and the confidence haircuts applied. CF is a NYSE-listed US nitrogen/hydrogen producer reported in USD; there is no Canadian listing. It is scored on the Materials / cyclical-commodity profile (FCF yield, mid-cycle EV/EBITDA, through-cycle ROIC, net debt, buyback), with the dominant Driver the nitrogen-vs-gas spread — explicitly not anchored on a single elevated quarter's EPS.
Data Source Status
✓
get_stock_snapshot / get_company_profile — CF, USD price, sector, ISIN
✓
get_financial_ratios — margins, ROE, leverage, FCF, yields (USD)
✓
get_income_statement — 8 quarters; share count verified (182.7M→154.2M)
✓
get_multi_timeframe_analysis / get_stock_prices — all 5 timeframes + 126 daily bars (Polygon)
⚠
get_price_target_consensus / _summary — wide spread ($72–$145), no last-month targets; moderate weight
✓
get_grades_consensus / get_stock_grades — "Buy" (20B/15H/6S); 12 grade actions
✓
get_ratings_snapshot — FMP "A−" health rating
✓
get_analyst_estimates — 2025–2030 EPS/EBITDA (mid-cycle anchor)
✓
web search (driver) — urea ~$401/t, Henry Hub ~$3, TTF ~$13/MMBtu eq, corn ~$4.40/bu, Iran peace deal, Blue Point JV
✓
get_stock_news — peace-deal pullback, "undervalued after dip" framing, options surge
✓
get_economic_calendar / Macro-Economic report — FOMC Jun 17; 2026-06-13 (XLB / DBA signals)
✗
get_earnings_calendar — empty; Q2 date (~early-Aug) inferred, >14 days out
Impact on scores: Near-complete coverage. Valuation confidence held to 68% for the cyclical-earnings uncertainty (the trailing screen rests on a peak-earnings year — scored on mid-cycle instead) and the wide/stale analyst target spread. Timing confidence 60% reflects the conflict between still-up higher timeframes and a confirmed daily breakdown into the FOMC. The earnings-calendar failure is immaterial to scheduling — the FOMC drives the next-update. Market cap independently verified (~154M shares × $105.59 ≈ $16.2B ≈ FMP $16.2B), so no stale-market-cap trap. Data-basis note: CF is an industrial producer — FMP "revenue" is genuine product sales (not a lender's gross interest income), so that data-basis trap does not apply; the relevant discipline here is the cyclical-peak-earnings trap, which is handled by scoring on mid-cycle.
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.