Lifecycle & sector: Consumer Staples / Beverages — Functional Energy, classified High-Growth (acquisition-fuelled). Reported revenue is exploding (+138% YoY in Q1'26 to $782.6M) but that is almost entirely the consolidation of Alani Nu (acquired ~1 Apr 2025 for ~$1.8B) plus the Rockstar brand — so, per the Step-0 rule for inorganic growth, the revenue sub-signal is scored on the organic core, not the headline. The franchise is profitable, cash-generative, and category-leading, so growth + unit economics (gross margin, EBITDA margin, share trajectory) drive the score rather than mature-company ROE/dividend metrics.
| Sub-signal | Reading | Sector context | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue trajectory (organic) | Core CELSIUS brand only +6% YoY in Q1'26 ($348M); Alani Nu +~100% ($368M). Combined reported +138%. | Organic core decelerated hard from 2023-24 hyper-growth — the soft spot | 55 |
| Gross margin | 49.6% TTM (Q1'26 ~48.3%) | Strong for an energy brand; ahead of many beverage peers, below KO ~60% | 75 |
| Adj-EBITDA margin | ~25% (Q1'26 Adj-EBITDA $195.5M) — but compressing on aluminium + integration + dual-deal mix | Healthy; margin direction is the watch-item | 64 |
| Cash generation | FCF margin ~10%; FCF/sh ~$1.14; P/OCF ~24× | Genuine FCF — harder to fake than the charge-noisy GAAP line | 60 |
| Balance sheet | D/E 1.95, net debt ~$1.9B, interest coverage 5.1×, current 1.73 | Elevated leverage post-Alani/Rockstar — the main quality drag | 46 |
| Returns (ROE) | ~14% reported (charge-depressed) / ~22% on normalized earnings; FMP ROE sub-score 4/5 | Good once normalized for the one-off Q3'25 charge | 60 |
Moat = average(50, 50, 35, 62, 65) = 52/100 — a brand-and-distribution moat, not a lock-in moat. The Switching-Costs and Cost-Advantage sub-scores are derived from the Competitive Environment read below, not asserted.
| Direct rival | Threat type | Share trajectory vs CELH | Moat-erosion vector |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bull (private) | Category leader ~33–36% | CELH gaining on it (via Alani) | Dominant brand + shelf; caps Celsius's premium pricing |
| Monster (MNST) | ~30–33%; owns Bang, Coca-Cola intl distribution, zero-sugar/Reign push | Roughly stable; CELH slightly gaining | Distribution scale + direct zero-sugar overlap → pricing pressure |
| Ghost (Keurig Dr Pepper) | Fast-growing; KDP bought 60% for $990M, moving Ghost to KDP DSD, launching 7UP/A&W energy in 2026 | Ghost gaining; pressuring Celsius's exact lane | Well-funded new entrant → switching-cost decay, shelf competition |
| Prime / Zoa / private label | Fragmenting the functional / female / better-for-you lane | Eroding at the margin | Low switching costs; promo intensity |
| GLP-1 trend (structural) | ~23% of US households have a GLP-1 user; caps sugar-volume upside | Headwind to category, partly offset (zero-sugar/functional) | Long-run volume cap, not a brand-specific loss |
Net effect on the moat → Switching Costs trimmed to 35 (Ghost/Prime poaching, easy consumer switching) and Cost Advantage held at 62 (the Pepsi DSD captaincy is a genuine, durable scale edge that the others are still building). Competitive threat level: ELEVATED; combined share trajectory: GAINING but reliant on Alani while the core brand is flat. This read propagates to the §11 Bear scenario (shelf-share loss / margin compression) and the §12 thesis-invalidation rule.
Pre-deal Celsius earned high incremental returns on an asset-light model. The capital-allocation question now is the two back-to-back acquisitions (Alani Nu ~$1.8B; Rockstar brand) — strategically sound (scale in the same DSD network, a faster-growing brand, a turnaround asset) but they levered the balance sheet and diluted shares ~9%, and the payoff depends on synergy delivery and a core-brand re-acceleration that is not yet in the numbers. PepsiCo's deepening stake (~11%) and distribution captaincy is a strong validating partner. Capital-allocation score ~52 — aggressive, jury still out.
| Multiple | CELH | Reference | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E (2026 / 2027) | 18.7× / 15.1× | MNST ~35× fwd; KO ~26×; KO/PEP staples 20–26×; high-growth bev band 30–40× | Low end of the growth band, below mature staples |
| Forward PEG | ~0.58 (18.7× ÷ ~32% '25→'26 EPS growth) | <1.0 = cheap for the growth; ratios' 2.31 PEG uses the depressed TTM EPS and is misleading | Attractive |
| P/Sales (TTM) | 2.65× | MNST ~9×; de-rated from CELH's own ~8× peak | Cheap vs the franchise |
| FCF yield (FCF / EV) | ~3.0% (≈3.7% on mkt-cap) | 3–5% = fair for a quality grower | Fair |
| Own 5-yr decile | Decile ~2–3 (near lows) | Forward P/E down from 40×+; P/S from ~8× | Genuinely de-rated |
Framing: the in-production business roughly justifies the low-$30s on normalized/forward earnings; the shelf-reset + international + Rockstar optionality is close to free. Tilt: +5 to Valuation — it cushions downside and is the reason to keep accumulating, not a reason the core is cheap on hope.
| Analyst cross-check | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus target | $52.83 (median $51; high $70; low $44) | +71% to consensus / +66% to median — but discounted: targets fell $62.6→$48→$50.5 over the year as the stock dropped (partly stale) |
| Grades consensus | 21 Buy / 1 Hold / 1 Sell — 91% bullish | Strong but EXTREME — near-unanimous bullishness is a mild contrarian caution |
| FMP financial-health | B− (overall 3/5): DCF 5, ROE 4 · P/E 1, P/B 1, D/E 1 | Split — cheap on DCF/returns, flagged on headline multiples + leverage |
Valuation = 67 (Attractive, +5 optionality tilt): forward PEG ~0.6, de-rated to lows, deep analyst upside — discounted for falling targets, elevated leverage, and an organic deceleration that warrants part of the cheapness.
Celsius's fortunes sit above its own execution on one composite force: the US functional-energy category, Celsius's share of it, and the PepsiCo distribution relationship that puts its cans on shelves.
| Horizon | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Historical (25%) | Category boomed 2021–24 then cooled to high-single-digit dollar growth; the core Celsius brand decelerated sharply through 2024–25 amid a Pepsi inventory destock. | 50 |
| Current (50%) | Category still healthy at ~7–8%; combined Celsius+Alani share rising (16%→21%); the Aug-2025 PepsiCo "captaincy" deal centralises inventory planning to fix prior destocking — offset by intense Ghost/Monster competition and aluminium cost pressure. | 56 |
| Forward (25%) | 2026 re-acceleration thesis (shelf resets, Pepsi gains) is plausible but unproven; GLP-1 caps long-run sugar volumes; Ghost is a well-funded new threat. | 54 |
Driver score = (50×0.25) + (56×0.50) + (54×0.25) = 54 → Neutral. At 54 it is in the 36–64 band, so it is not eligible to amplify the signal (amplification needs ≥65 tailwind or ≤35 headwind). The base HOLD/BUY/BUY is unchanged by the driver. Thesis-invalidation floor: the case breaks if the core Celsius brand turns to negative scanner growth and combined share rolls back below ~18% — i.e. the category stops being a tailwind and competitors take the shelf.
CELH is not on the macro watchlist, so the read maps its GICS Consumer Staples (XLP) lane to the 20 Jun 2026 Driver-Sector matrix, which is Neutral across Short / Medium / Long. The regime (Soft Landing / Reacceleration co-lead with a hawkish, higher-for-longer Fed) is roughly neutral for the name: a resilient consumer supports beverage volumes, but a higher-for-longer rate path caps the multiple of a long-duration growth story. Note CELH's growth profile straddles Consumer Discretionary (XLY = Outperform short/medium) — a mild cross-read positive — but on its assigned Staples lane the pressure is Neutral. Neutral pressure → no amplification for any horizon; the base HOLD/BUY/BUY stands. Stance Neutral, conviction 50.
Source: sector-map (XLP — Consumer Staples) · Macro report 2026-06-20
| Timing sub-signal | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| MTF trend (weighted) | Monthly ↓ / Weekly ↓ / Daily strong-↓ but basing / Hourly ↑ / 15-min ↑ | 40 |
| Risk-reward (daily) | At $27.47 support; stop $26.75 (−13%) vs ~$39 fair value (+27%) — favourable for an accumulator, trend not yet confirmed up | 52 |
| Relative strength | −~30% over 3m vs SPY/XLP (laggard); 1m stabilising (+~10% off the 3 Jun low) | 30 |
| Position-risk (ATR) | Daily ATR $1.71 (~5.5%); stop ~2.4 ATR away — moderate | 48 |
| Macro overlay | Staples neutral; hawkish higher-for-longer Fed mildly caps growth multiples; VIX moderate | 45 |
| Sentiment | Grades mostly "maintain" + 1 upgrade (Deutsche Bank, 30 Mar, Hold→Buy); price targets drifting lower; news tone bearish on margins/integration | 42 |
| Catalyst density | No event for ~7 weeks (next earnings ~early-Aug) — calm calendar | 70 |
52-week range position: ~9% ($30.80 within $27.47–$66.74) — deeply beaten down. The setup is a downtrend trying to bottom: constructive for a patient, valuation-led accumulator, but not a confirmed trend turn. A reclaim of the $31.5 50-day SMA on volume would be the technical green light. Sentiment/catalyst carry below-average weight here because Consumer Staples is a low-macro-sensitivity sector.
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | S&P Global Composite PMI (Jun) | Medium | 50.8 | 51.5 | ⚠️ Medium | Consumer-demand pulse for beverage volumes |
| 2026-06-24 | New Home Sales (May) | Medium | 0.64M | 0.622M | · Low | Tangential — consumer wealth effect |
| ~Aug 2026 | Q2'26 earnings + next CPI / PCE / consumer-confidence | High | — | — | ✅ Yes (later) | The genuinely CELH-relevant prints (food CPI, consumer confidence) and the Q2 scanner read fall AFTER this 14-day window |
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | FOMC decision + projections | Hawkish hold (higher-for-longer) | — | Hawkish | Mild headwind — caps growth multiple |
| 2026-06-18 | Initial Jobless Claims | 226K | 225K | Inline | Neutral — steady employment supports spend |
| 2026-06-18 | Philly Fed Manufacturing | 10.3 | 10.0 | + above | Mild positive — macro firming |
There is no high-impact, CELH-specific macro release inside the next 14 days — the prints that actually move a functional-beverage name (food CPI, consumer confidence/PCE) land later, alongside the ~early-Aug Q2 earnings. Consumer Staples is a low-macro-sensitivity sector, so no WAIT-FOR-EVENT override applies. The recent hawkish FOMC hold is a slow drag on the multiple rather than a discrete trigger.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 42.4 | −, falling | S: $26.1 · R: $40.8 | Support breakdown | 0.94× |
| Weekly | Downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 39.2 | −, falling | S: $27.5 · R: $47.7 | Support breakdown | 1.12× |
| Daily | Strong ↓ (basing) | Neutral | 52.8 | −, hist turning + | S: $27.5 · R: $33.5 | Resist. breakout | 0.91× |
| Hourly | Strong Uptrend ↑ | Bullish | 59.7 | +, flat | S: $29.5 · R: $31.0 | Breakout | thin |
| 15-min | Strong Uptrend ↑ | Bullish | 58.9 | ± flat | S: $30.2 · R: $31.0 | Breakout | thin |
| Confluence: Bearish higher-TF, basing near support · MTF Score 40 | |||||||
The monthly and weekly downtrends remain firmly intact — price is below every major moving average and the daily SMA200 (~$44.9) sits far overhead — so this is, structurally, still a downtrend. But the picture at the front of the chart is constructive: the daily close has reclaimed its 20-day, the daily MACD histogram has flipped positive, RSI is back to a neutral 52.8, and the $27.47 weekly support has now held twice (12 May and 3 Jun). The intraday frames are outright bullish. Net: a multi-month decline showing its first signs of a base. Key levels — $27.47 support (a break is the stop trigger), $31.5 50-day SMA (a reclaim on volume = trend-change confirmation), and $33.5 / $37.4 overhead resistance.
6-month daily close. CELH fell from the mid-$50s to a $27.47 trough (12 May / 3 Jun) and is basing in the low-$30s. Levels: stop $26.75, twice-tested support $27.47, 50-day SMA ~$31.5 (reclaim = trend-turn), fair value ~$39. Analyst median target $51 sits above the 6-month range.
Core CELSIUS re-accelerates off the +17% shelf resets, Alani sustains ~double-digit growth, margins recover as integration laps, and the multiple re-rates toward ~24× 2027 EPS (~$49, near the analyst median $51). Trigger: organic scanner growth back to double digits + gross margin stabilising ≥48%.
Steady mid-teens combined growth, organic core grinds from +6% toward low-double-digits, margins flattish. Forward ~22–24× 2026 EPS ≈ $38–40 — roughly fair value and the probability-weighted centre of gravity.
COMPETITIVE TRIGGER: the core brand keeps stalling while Ghost (now on KDP's DSD) and Monster take shelf, combined share rolls back toward ~18%, margin compression persists on aluminium/promo, and leverage draws scrutiny. Multiple stays compressed ~14× 2026 EPS ≈ $23–24.
Probability-weighted ≈ $38 — essentially fair value at spot, i.e. the market is pricing close to the base case. The asymmetry favours the upside (≈ +27% to base / +62% to bull vs −22% to bear), which is what supports a BUY at the medium/long horizon while the unconfirmed downtrend keeps the short at HOLD.
Forecast: Fundamental path is already MET (price ~21% below the ~$39 fair value, driver Neutral-positive) → a Half-Size / starter entry is open now on valuation. The Technical path is ~1–3 weeks out IF price reclaims the $31.5 50-day SMA on > 1.5× volume — price is basing above the twice-tested $27.47 support with a higher low and the daily MACD turning up, so the setup is constructive — Moderate confidence; a failed reclaim or a break of $27.47 resets the clock. The Catalyst path is dormant until ~early-Aug Q2 earnings. Net: a 50-day reclaim would upgrade the conviction toward Full-Size.
Forecast: Stop is unlikely in the next 4–6 weeks — $26.75 is ~13% below spot, just under the well-tested $27.47 shelf that has held twice; it would take an earnings shock or a market-wide risk-off. Thesis-invalidation is the live risk to monitor: the ~early-Aug Q2 print is the referendum on whether the core brand re-accelerates off the shelf resets or keeps stalling — a negative scanner read there is the most probable trigger. Profit-target ($51 + RSI > 70) is far off at the current trend.
No portfolio allocation or role was supplied, so a position size in % is not computed. The §12 Conviction Ladder reads Half-Size (1 of 3 entry paths met — Fundamental only), i.e. a starter / scale-in rather than a full position; a 50-day reclaim that opens the Technical path would upgrade it toward Full-Size.
Volatility context: beta ~0.90 (slightly less volatile than the market), daily ATR ~$1.71 (~5.5% of price), and a brutal ~54% drawdown over the trailing year — a deep-value-style entry in a name that can still move 5%+ on a session. Staggered entry suits this setup: e.g. a first tranche now (valuation), a second on a confirmed 50-day reclaim (~$31.5), a third on a re-test of $27.47 support — averaging in rather than committing at once. Provide an allocation and role for a specific % range.
{
"exchange_ticker": "NASDAQ:CELH",
"ticker": "CELH",
"isin": "US15118V2079",
"date": "2026-06-20",
"version": "v6",
"storage_ticker": "CELH",
"api_ticker": "CELH",
"country_table": "US",
"company": "Celsius Holdings, Inc.",
"price_at_rating": 30.8,
"currency": "USD",
"lifecycle_stage": "high-growth (acquisition-fuelled)",
"sector": "Consumer Staples / Beverages \u2014 Functional Energy",
"analysis_status": "on-going",
"finder_ticker": "CELH",
"finder_exchange": "\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 NASDAQ",
"section": "Consumer Staples",
"first_report": true,
"signal_short": "HOLD",
"signal_medium": "BUY",
"signal_long": "BUY",
"composite_short": 55,
"composite_medium": 60,
"composite_long": 63,
"quality_score": 66,
"valuation_score": 67,
"timing_score": 45,
"driver_score": 54,
"quality_confidence": 70,
"valuation_confidence": 72,
"timing_confidence": 62,
"driver_confidence": 60,
"overall_confidence": 62,
"economic_alignment_stance": "Neutral",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 50,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Neutral",
"economic_alignment_source": "sector-map (XLP Consumer Staples)",
"macro_report_date": "2026-06-20",
"quality_detail": {
"organic_core_growth_yoy_pct": 6,
"reported_revenue_growth_yoy_pct": 138,
"ttm_revenue_usd_m": 2968.6,
"gross_margin_ttm_pct": 49.6,
"adj_ebitda_margin_q1_pct": 25,
"fcf_per_share": 1.14,
"debt_to_equity": 1.95,
"interest_coverage": 5.08,
"current_ratio": 1.73,
"roe_reported_pct": 14,
"moat_score": 52,
"moat_subscores": {
"pricing": 50,
"network": 50,
"switching": 35,
"cost": 62,
"intangible": 65
},
"industry_benchmark_name": "Gross Margin + Combined Share Growth (beverage composite)",
"industry_benchmark_value": "GM 49.6% + share 16%\u219221%",
"industry_benchmark_score": 64
},
"valuation_detail": {
"pe_ttm_reported": 77,
"clean_pe": 28.0,
"fwd_pe_2026": 18.7,
"fwd_pe_2027": 15.1,
"clean_peg": 0.7,
"fwd_peg": 0.58,
"p_sales_ttm": 2.65,
"fcf_yield_ev_pct": 3.0,
"historical_valuation_decile": 2,
"implied_growth_rate_pct": 12.5,
"consensus_growth_rate_pct": 28,
"analyst_consensus_target": 52.83,
"analyst_target_high": 70,
"analyst_target_low": 44,
"analyst_median_target": 51,
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 71.5,
"analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
"analyst_bullish_pct": 91,
"analyst_coverage_count": 23,
"fmp_rating": "B-",
"fmp_overall_score": 3,
"recent_upgrades_30d": 0,
"recent_downgrades_30d": 0,
"target_note": "targets falling: last-yr avg $62.6 \u2192 last-quarter $48 \u2192 last-month $50.5 (2 analysts); discount applied"
},
"timing_detail": {
"mtf_score": 40,
"confluence": "bearish higher-TF, basing near support",
"rsi_daily": 52.8,
"rsi_weekly": 39.2,
"trend": {
"monthly": "downtrend",
"weekly": "downtrend",
"daily": "strong_downtrend (basing)",
"hourly": "strong_uptrend",
"15min": "strong_uptrend"
},
"sma50_daily": 31.53,
"sma200_daily": 44.92,
"atr_daily": 1.71,
"support": [
27.47,
26.75
],
"resistance": [
31.53,
33.49,
37.4
],
"rel_strength_3m_pct": -30,
"range_52w_position_pct": 9
},
"nonop_pct_of_net_income": 8,
"earnings_quality_note": "TTM net income DEPRESSED (not inflated) by one-time Alani/Rockstar integration charges (Q3'25 ~$61M GAAP loss qtr); reported 77x trailing P/E overstates expensiveness. Scored off forward (18.7x) / clean-normalized TTM (~28x).",
"competitive_share_trajectory": "gaining",
"competitive_threat_level": "elevated",
"competitive_rivals": [
"Red Bull (~33-36%)",
"Monster/MNST (~30-33%, owns Bang)",
"Ghost/Keurig Dr Pepper (well-funded new push, 7UP/A&W energy 2026)",
"Prime/Zoa/private label",
"GLP-1 structural overhang"
],
"driver": {
"primary": "US energy-drink category growth \u00d7 Celsius share \u00d7 PepsiCo distribution",
"label": "Neutral",
"subscores": [
50,
56,
54
],
"amplification": "none"
},
"fair_value_est": 39.0,
"stop_loss": 26.75,
"target_price": 51.0,
"next_earnings": "2026-08-06 (approx; inferred from Q1 7 May cadence)",
"scenarios": {
"bull": {
"p": 28,
"px": 50.0
},
"base": {
"p": 47,
"px": 39.0
},
"bear": {
"p": 25,
"px": 24.0
}
},
"entry_groups_met": 1,
"entry_conviction": "Half-Size",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"gates_triggered": [],
"gates_caution": [
"Elevated leverage (D/E 1.95; ~6x reported / ~2.7-3.7x normalized ND/EBITDA) from Alani+Rockstar",
"Acquisition share dilution +9% YoY; ~$25M/qtr PepsiCo preferred ahead of common",
"Decelerating organic core (+6%) / category competition (Ghost, Monster)"
],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"hard_gate_state": "caution",
"focus_qualifies": false,
"focus_reason": "Short signal HOLD (downtrend not confirmed); entry 1/3 (Half-Size). Medium/Long BUY but not an execution-grade short-term buy.",
"report_filename": "CELH_Signal_v6_20260620_1042.html",
"last_updated_human": "Jun 20, 2026",
"next_update_date": "2026-07-06",
"next_check_date": "2026-07-06",
"next_update_basis": "default +14d (next earnings ~early-Aug beyond window); full re-rate at Q2'26 print on the core-brand scanner read + margin trend"
}
First report for CELH (new Stock-Finder promotion, Consumer Staples lane, fit 71). HOLD / BUY / BUY, Half-Size, gates CAUTION (leverage + dilution), no Do-Not-Buy. Next update 2026-07-06 (default +14d; Q2 earnings ~early-Aug will drive the next full re-rate).