Cerro de Pasco Resources aims to reprocess the vast Quiulacocha tailings and Excelsior stockpile — a century of mining waste at the Cerro de Pasco complex in central Peru — to recover silver, zinc, lead and copper. Its core idea is that the metal is already mined, crushed and sitting on surface, so recovery could be cheaper and faster than a conventional mine (no drilling-and-blasting of hard rock, minimal grinding). What sets it apart is the sheer company-estimated scale (~75 million tonnes of tailings) and a strong early metallurgical result (~94% silver recovery in pilot tests), backed by state-entity site access, a notarised community agreement, US development-finance support (a DFC funding agreement), and prominent investor Eric Sprott (~16% holder). Critically, this is still pre-resource: there is no NI 43-101 mineral resource or economic study yet — the value rests on a maiden resource still to come.
Lifecycle: Pre-resource developer (Materials / silver tailings reprocessing). Traditional financial multiples are meaningless — no production, no revenue, no NI 43-101 resource. Quality is scored on asset attractiveness, funding runway, technical de-risking and management/backing.
| Sub-signal | Read | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Asset attractiveness | ~75Mt surface tailings/stockpiles, metal already mined & crushed; historical (non-compliant) ~430M oz AgEq context. Genuinely large, low-mining-cost concept. | 72 |
| Metallurgy / technical de-risking | ~94% Ag recovery in pilot tests — strong early result; still to be proven at scale and in a compliant study. | 68 |
| Funding runway | C$23.4M cash, ~C$0.07M debt, ~C$11M/yr burn → ~2yr runway. DFC US$5M milestone funding; possible US$300M DFC construction loan under evaluation. | 60 |
| Stage / quantification | No maiden resource yet — the value driver (a defined MRE + economic study) is still ahead. Drilling started June 2026. | 40 |
| Backing / alignment | Eric Sprott ~16%; state-entity (AMSAC) access; notarised community agreement; OTCQX Best Market upgrade. | 70 |
| Competitor / threat | Type | Share / capital trajectory | Erosion vector |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other silver/tailings developers (e.g. reprocessing & primary-silver juniors) | Capital competition | Stable — CDPR's DFC backing + Sprott is a relative advantage in a tight junior-financing market | Investor capital rotates to peers that publish a resource/PEA first |
| Silver price / macro | Driver substitution | Losing near-term — SLV -26% in 8wk pressures the whole silver-developer complex's risk appetite | A weak silver tape compresses junior multiples regardless of asset quality |
| Self (execution risk) | Internal | N/A | Delay to maiden MRE / disappointing grade-tonnage would be the real “competitor” to the thesis |
ROIC / capital allocation: N/A (pre-revenue, negative ROE -22%). Capital allocation judged on drilling-to-resource discipline and non-dilutive funding capture (DFC) — so far credible.
Warranted-multiple anchor: N/A — no earnings, no cash flow, no NI 43-101 resource, so no clean multiple and no P/NAV resolves. Per the SKILL degradation rule, the anchor is skipped and a confidence haircut applied; valuation falls back to asset/optionality and market-cap-vs-stage.
| Lens | Read | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap vs stage | ~C$372M (EV ~C$349M) for a pre-maiden-resource tailings developer is full — it already prices a successful resource/economic outcome. | 38 |
| P/NAV | N/A — no compliant resource/NPV exists to build a NAV. | — |
| P/Book | 8.4× — high, but book is a weak yardstick for a surface-metal option. | 35 |
| FCF yield | Negative (burning ~C$11M/yr) — N/A as a value anchor. | — |
| Analyst target | Single-analyst C$1.25 vs C$0.58 (thin, one house) — large notional upside but low corroboration; treat as directional colour, not a valuation floor. | 60 |
Implied read: at C$0.58 the market is paying for a resource that does not yet exist. That is defensible as an option premium on a differentiated asset, but it means Valuation is a full-band read (42) — not attractive, not a hard-expensive gate (no multiple to breach).
As a silver-dominant tailings developer, CDPR's re-rating is tethered to the silver price and to precious-metals risk appetite — the metal sets whether a defined resource is worth financing, and near-term silver sentiment sets junior-developer multiples.
| Horizon | Read | Label |
|---|---|---|
| Historical (12-24m) | Silver had a strong 2025-early-2026 run; SLV then rolled over hard from ~C$69 (mid-May) to ~C$51. | Mixed |
| Current (trend overlay) | SLV C$50.98, below a falling 50-DMA (~59.8); 4-wk -13.5%, 8-wk -26.2%. A live downtrend, basing slightly in the last week. | Headwind (short) |
| Forward (6-12m) | Macro (20 Jul): Silver short U / medium N / long O; structural deficit + Materials XLB medium O / long SO keep the medium/long case intact. | Neutral → Tailwind (long) |
Not a macro watchlist name — mapped via GICS Materials. Newest MacroDriver (20 Jul): XLB short N / medium O / long SO; Silver short U / medium N / long O. Anchoring on the medium horizon, the economic pressure is Neutral-to-mildly-supportive: Materials is favoured medium/long but silver's short Underperform offsets it near-term. Regime is 'Stagflation-lite / energy-supply-shock (Iran/Hormuz)' with Low-Medium confidence — a mild positive for hard-asset sectors longer-term, no clean near-term tailwind. Pressure Neutral → no amplification (neither STRONG BUY nor STRONG SELL enabled).
Source: sector-map (Materials / XLB) + silver asset-class read · Macro report 2026-07-20
Risk-reward: C$0.58 sits ~34% up its 52-wk range (C$0.415-C$0.90). Nearest support C$0.55 (recent swing low / Jun base); resistance C$0.70-0.75. Stop below C$0.55. Reward to base C$0.75 (+29%) vs risk to C$0.55 stop (-5%) looks skewed favourably on paper, but the entry trigger is not confirmed.
| Signal | Read |
|---|---|
| Trend | Sideways-to-down since March; drifting toward the low end of the base. Below near-term MAs. |
| Relative strength | Weak — tracking the silver-developer complex lower; no independent strength. |
| Volume | Light (~271k vs ~735k avg) — no accumulation signal. |
| Catalyst density | Low — no dated catalyst in the window; maiden MRE / assays are the next real trigger (H2-2026, undated). |
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ~30 Jul | FOMC decision | High (macro) | Hold | Hold | Indirect | Sets precious-metals risk appetite; no direct CDPR line |
| H2-2026 (undated) | Maiden NI 43-101 resource / drill assays | High (stock) | — | — | Yes | The value-setting catalyst — not yet dated |
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | Drilling commenced at Quiulacocha | Started | — | On plan | Positive (process) |
| Mar 2026 | DFC funding agreement (US$5M + up to US$300M loan under eval) | Signed | — | Positive | De-risks funding path |
No dated, stock-specific catalyst inside the next 14 days. The only report-moving event is the maiden resource / assays in H2-2026, which is undated — hence the default +14d refresh cadence. FOMC ~30 Jul matters only via silver's risk tone.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Down ↓ | Bearish | 42 | -, flat | S: 0.55 R: 0.90 | None | 1.0x |
| Weekly | Down ↓ | Bearish | 40 | -, falling | S: 0.55 R: 0.75 | None | 0.9x |
| Daily | Weak → | Neutral | 43 | -, flat | S: 0.55 R: 0.62 | None | 0.5x |
| Confluence: Mostly Bearish / basing · MTF Score 43 | |||||||
All higher timeframes lean bearish; the daily is flat-to-weak, basing on the C$0.55 support that has held since June. No breakout, no volume. Consistent with a pre-resource junior drifting with a soft silver tape while it waits for its own catalyst. C$0.55 is the line that matters — a break opens C$0.415 (52-wk low); a volume reclaim of C$0.62-0.70 would be the first sign the drift is over.
CDPR.V daily, ~last 3 months (CAD). Basing on C$0.55 support inside a soft silver tape; C$0.415 is the 52-wk low below.
A maiden NI 43-101 resource lands well (grade-tonnage confirms the surface-metal thesis), silver stabilises/recovers, and the DFC construction-loan path advances — the option starts to price a real, financeable project. Re-rates toward the single-analyst C$1.25.
Drilling progresses toward a maiden resource in H2-2026 with no negative surprise; silver stays range-bound. The stock holds its C$0.55-0.75 base and drifts up modestly on de-risking, but re-rating waits for the resource. The probability-weighted centre of gravity.
Silver's downtrend deepens (SLV already -26% in 8wk — a LIVE risk, not a tail), OR the maiden resource disappoints / slips, OR a dilutive raise lands at a discount. Junior risk-appetite drains and the stock breaks C$0.55 toward the C$0.415 52-wk low. The competitive/driver trigger: a weak silver tape compresses the whole developer complex.
Forecast: Fundamental: Unlikely to open until a maiden NI 43-101 resource exists (H2-2026) — only then can a defensible fair value be set. Technical: the C$0.55 support-bounce branch is the reachable early entry, ~catalyst-dependent (needs volume) — Low confidence in the next 4-6 weeks while silver is soft. Catalyst: tied to the undated maiden resource. Net: no entry path is likely to fire before the next refresh — conviction stays Wait.
Forecast: Stop (C$0.55) is close — only ~5% below spot; a further leg down in silver could trip it in the next few weeks (Low-Moderate). Thesis-invalidation is event-driven (maiden resource). No exit trigger is live today — the honest read for a holder is 'hold and watch the C$0.55 line and the resource timeline.'
Buying now means buying a resource that does not yet exist, into a falling silver tape, with no confirmed technical trigger. What you gain is the un-priced optionality (maiden MRE, DFC loan path, by-product credits) at a full-but-not-absurd C$372M cap. Net: acting now is paying an option premium early; waiting for the C$0.55 bounce-with-volume, or for the maiden resource, materially improves the deal. Assessment, not a buy verdict.
No exit rule is triggered today (stop not hit, no thesis break, no profit target). For a holder this is a hold-and-watch zone, not a mechanical sell: the reasons to own it (differentiated asset, DFC/Sprott backing, coming resource) are intact; the reason it's only a HOLD is that the value-setting catalyst hasn't landed and silver is soft.
Position sizing not computed — no allocation/role was specified. Framework note: the §12 Conviction Ladder reads Wait (0 of 3 entry paths met), so the size guidance is no starter position on the framework alone — watch the C$0.55 support (a volume bounce = the first Half-Size trigger) and the maiden-resource timeline. This is a speculative, single-asset pre-resource developer: any position should be sized as a high-risk option, not a core holding.
{
"ticker": "CDPR.V",
"date": "2026-07-20",
"version": "v6",
"company": "Cerro de Pasco Resources Inc.",
"currency": "CAD",
"exchange": "TSXV",
"exchange_ticker": "TSXV:CDPR",
"isin": "CA1568281051",
"api_ticker": "CDPR.V",
"finder_ticker": "CDPR",
"finder_exchange": "TSXV",
"analysis_status": "stopped",
"lifecycle_stage": "pre-resource-developer",
"sector": "Materials",
"price_at_rating": 0.58,
"signal_short": "HOLD",
"signal_medium": "HOLD",
"signal_long": "HOLD",
"primary_signal": "HOLD",
"quality_score": 60,
"valuation_score": 42,
"timing_score": 46,
"driver_score": 52,
"driver_commodity_trend": "Silver (SLV) C$50.98, below falling 50-DMA (~59.8); 4wk -13.5%, 8wk -26.2% \u2014 short downtrend/Headwind. Macro Silver short U / medium N / long O.",
"economic_alignment_stance": "Neutral",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 52,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Neutral",
"economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
"macro_report_date": "2026-07-20",
"overall_confidence": 45,
"val_band": "full",
"warranted_multiple": null,
"actual_multiple": null,
"val_multiple_basis": "asset/optionality (no resource \u2014 anchor N/A)",
"fcf_yield": null,
"implied_growth_rate": null,
"nonop_pct_of_net_income": null,
"clean_pe": null,
"clean_peg": null,
"fair_value_est": 0.65,
"stop_loss": 0.55,
"target_price": 0.75,
"scenario_base_target": 0.75,
"scenario_bull_target": 1.1,
"scenario_bear_target": 0.4,
"entry_groups_met": 0,
"entry_conviction": "Wait",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"hard_gate_state": "caution",
"gates_triggered": [],
"gates_caution": [
"Project Quantification (no resource)",
"Valuation Ceiling (stage)",
"Dilution",
"Governance/Jurisdiction"
],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"competitive_share_trajectory": "stable",
"competitive_threat_level": "moderate",
"economic_study_status": "CONFIRMED ABSENT \u2014 no NI 43-101 mineral resource or economic study on the Quiulacocha tailings (verified 2026-07-20 vs pascoresources.com + company disclosure + 'CDPR Quiulacocha NI 43-101 PEA NPV IRR' queries). Drilling commenced Jun-2026 toward a maiden MRE (H2-2026). Historical ~430M oz AgEq is non-compliant; no PEA/PFS/DFS exists.",
"analyst_consensus_target": 1.25,
"analyst_coverage_count": 1,
"next_update_date": "2026-08-03",
"next_update_basis": "default +14d (pre-resource; drilling toward maiden MRE H2-2026, no dated catalyst in window)",
"prior_report": "calibration-CDPR.V-20260706-1625.json",
"prior_primary": "HOLD",
"changes_note": "HOLD held. Resource still CONFIRMED ABSENT. Driver 55\u219252, Timing 48\u219246 on deeper silver downtrend; price 0.60\u21920.58. No BUY \u2192 stays Stopped."
}
HOLD/HOLD/HOLD reaffirmed. Economic study still CONFIRMED ABSENT (no NI 43-101 resource) — classification unchanged and correct. Marginal score softening (Driver 55→52, Timing 48→46) on continued silver weakness; price C$0.60→C$0.58. No BUY in any horizon → analysis_status stays 'stopped'.