Changes since last report (21 Jun 2026, C$0.70): Price −14% to C$0.60 as silver fell 18.7% on the month. Signal HOLD held across all horizons. The mandatory economic-study check re-confirms no NI 43-101 resource / no PEA exists (the 'pre-resource' classification is correct). Genuine de-risking — full-site AMSAC state access (Mar), notarised community agreement (Dec), a strong 94% silver metallurgical result (Jun 9), ~C$32.6M cash, Sprott 16.2% — is offset by a full ~C$391M market cap for the stage (corrected up from a stale FMP ~C$296M) and a soft silver tape. Valuation 42, Quality 61. Entry ladder: Wait. vs previous report dated 21 Jun 2026.
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Cerro de Pasco Resources Inc.
Cerro de Pasco Resources aims to reprocess the vast Quiulacocha tailings and Excelsior stockpile — a century of mining waste at the Cerro de Pasco complex in central Peru — to recover silver, zinc, lead and copper. Its core idea is that the metal is already mined, crushed and sitting on surface, so recovery could be cheaper and faster than a conventional mine (no drilling-and-blasting of hard rock, minimal grinding). What sets it apart is the sheer company-estimated scale (~75 million tonnes of tailings) and a strong early metallurgical result (~94% silver recovery in pilot tests), backed by state-entity site access, a notarised community agreement, and prominent investor Eric Sprott (~16% holder). Critically, this is still pre-resource: there is no NI 43-101 mineral resource or economic study yet — the value rests on a maiden resource still to come.
| Horizon | Signal | Composite Score | Confidence | Key Driver |
|---|
| Short-term (1–3 mo) | HOLD | 46 | 48% | Silver in a downtrend (−18.7% MoM); no resource yet; downtrend in the stock |
| Medium-term (6–12 mo) | HOLD | 50 | 50% | De-risking (access, metallurgy) offset by no compliant resource and a rich valuation for the stage |
| Long-term (3–5 yr) | HOLD | 54 | 50% | Large tailings optionality + silver structural bull — but unproven until a maiden resource lands |
Next update: 2026-07-20 — default +14d (pre-resource; Phase-2 drilling/maiden MRE H2-2026, no dated catalyst in window)
1
Five-Pillar Scorecard
Five independent scores — each 0–100 with its own confidence. The three fundamental pillars (Quality / Valuation / Timing) set the base BUY/HOLD/SELL via the Decision Matrix; the two context pillars (Underlying Drivers, Economic Alignment) then amplify a BUY to STRONG BUY or a SELL to STRONG SELL when both corroborate.
Business Quality
61
speculative developer
conf 52%
Valuation Attractiveness
42
full (for the stage)
conf 45%
Entry/Exit Timing
48
weak-neutral
conf 50%
Underlying Drivers
55
neutral (silver soft)
conf 52%
Economic Alignment
52
Neutral
conf 50%
2
Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status
Binary safety checks — any TRIGGERED gate is a hard cap regardless of the scores above; CAUTION gates are sizing notes.
✅Financial Distress
~C$32.6M cash, negligible debt after the Nov-2025 C$22.7M raise; company says fully funded for Phase-2 drilling + metallurgy.
⚠️Project Quantification (no resource)
CONFIRMED ABSENT after checking the company site, disclosure and dedicated queries: no NI 43-101 resource and no PEA/PFS exists on the Quiulacocha tailings. A 2012 Brophy estimate is historical/non-compliant; all scale figures (≈423 Moz AgEq / 75 Mt) are company estimates, not QP-verified. Value rests on a maiden resource still to come — a caution, not a hard gate (it is a known pre-resource stage), but it caps Valuation.
⚠️Valuation Ceiling
~C$391M market cap (corrected up from a stale FMP ~C$296M; ~636-642M shares) for a name with no compliant resource is full/speculative for the stage.
⚠️Dilution
Severe and ongoing — ~636M shares, +42% count in the last year, equity-only funding + Nov-2025 warrants (C$0.68) overhang. Expect further raises through feasibility.
⚠️Governance / Jurisdiction
Past MCTO (Jul 2024, over late FY-Mar-2024 financials — appears resolved). Peru permitting (EIA not yet started) + community/environmental sensitivity at Quiulacocha are live risks, currently managed via a notarised agreement + AMSAC state access.
3
Pillar Detail: Business Quality
A deep dive into the Quality score: business economics, moat, ROIC and the industry benchmark.
Business Quality — Pillar Score
A funded, Sprott-backed tailings developer with a standout metallurgical result and social/state access — but no resource yet, and a promotional profile.
Lifecycle & sector: Pre-resource tailings-reprocessing developer (Materials — silver-polymetallic). Scored on the asset concept, metallurgy, funding, access and management — not earnings or a resource (there isn't one yet).
Economic-study / resource check — CONFIRMED ABSENT (mandatory check satisfied). After checking the company site, Dec-2025/Jun-2026 disclosure and dedicated queries: no NI 43-101 mineral resource and no PEA/PFS/DFS exists on the Quiulacocha tailings / Excelsior stockpile as of 6 Jul 2026. The company states it "has not established a mineral resource… in accordance with NI 43-101." A 2012 Brophy estimate is historical and non-compliant. The separate Santander Pipe PEA belongs to a different, legacy asset — do not attribute it here. The prior 'pre-resource, maiden H2-2026' classification is confirmed correct.
| Sub-signal | Reading | Score |
|---|
| Metallurgy (the key positive) | ~94% silver recovery in mini-pilot (bench 87-95%); two-concentrate flowsheet; fine tailings need minimal grinding (cost edge) | 76 |
| Asset concept / scale | Company-estimated ~75 Mt tailings, ~423 Moz AgEq (UNVERIFIED — not a resource); metal already on surface | 58 |
| Funding | ~C$32.6M cash, ~no debt; Sprott 16.2% (21.8% FD), participates in every raise | 70 |
| Access / social license | Full-site AMSAC state access (Mar 2026) + notarised community agreement (Dec 2025) — de-risks the biggest historical obstacle | 72 |
| Management | CEO Guy Goulet — led the Zgounder silver-mine restart (Aya Gold & Silver) — relevant silver track record; but promotional profile + past MCTO | 60 |
Industry benchmark — pre-resource survival. With ~C$32.6M cash, no debt, and Phase-2 drilling funded, the survival/runway benchmark is strong (score ~72). The missing piece is a compliant resource, which the benchmark cannot yet score.
Pricing power50Price-taker on Ag/Zn/Pb (neutral)
Cost advantage66Surface tailings, minimal grinding — potential low-cost recovery (unproven at scale)
Switching / network50N/A (neutral)
Intangibles / asset64Unique large tailings body + state access + social license
Management60Silver-restart pedigree, offset by promotional cadence + MCTO history
Competitive Environment. Competition is (i) other silver/tailings-reprocessing developers for capital and (ii) the silver price. Named comparables:
tailings-reprocessing peers (e.g. DRD/Ecoro-type retreatment models) and silver developers competing for the same Sprott-style precious-metals capital.
| Rival / threat | Type | CDPR's position |
|---|
| Other silver/tailings developers | Capital competition | Differentiated by scale + Sprott sponsorship, but behind peers that already have a resource |
| The silver price | Commodity beta (primary value driver) | Headwind short-term (silver −18.7% MoM) — a live risk to sentiment |
| Its own missing resource | Stage risk | The gating item — no compliant ounces to anchor value yet |
Net effect: cost-advantage and asset sub-scores rest on unproven-at-scale metallurgy; the real competitor is time-to-resource. Overall competitive-threat level:
moderate — stage and silver price dominate.
4
Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness
Sector-appropriate multiples, FCF yield, reverse-DCF implied growth, embedded optionality, and the analyst-consensus cross-check.
Valuation Attractiveness — Pillar Score
Full/speculative for the stage: ~C$391M for a name with no compliant resource — you are paying for company-estimated scale.
Basis: asset/optionality-based — no NI 43-101 resource and no economics exist, so P/NAV cannot be computed; the warranted-multiple anchor is N/A. Confidence haircut applied. This is the pillar most exposed to the missing resource.
Market-cap correction (data-basis trap). FMP shows a stale ~C$296M cap (implying ~493M shares); the current count is ~636-642M shares → ~C$391M market cap. Use the corrected figure — a stale small-cap cap would understate how richly the name is priced.
| Lens | Reading | Score |
|---|
| Per company-estimated AgEq | ~C$391M ÷ ~423 Moz AgEq (UNVERIFIED) = ~C$0.92/oz AgEq — full, and on unverified ounces | 38 |
| Stage-appropriate | A pre-resource developer at ~C$391M is priced for a successful maiden MRE + PEA it has not delivered | 40 |
| Balance-sheet backing | ~C$32.6M cash is ~8% of the market cap — the rest is optionality on the tailings | 48 |
| Analyst target | Thin/promotional (single-analyst ~C$0.65); low confidence | 50 |
Embedded optionality / free upside — but here it IS the whole case. The bull argument (large tailings body, 94% Ag recovery, gallium/gold by-products, pyrite-for-industrial-use) is real optionality, but with no resource the investor is paying a full price for the option, not getting it free. Size accordingly: this is a speculative call on a maiden resource, not a value entry.
Read: the −14% since the last report helps, but dilution offsets it and the cap is still full for a pre-resource name. Valuation is the pillar holding the signal at HOLD.
5
Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers
The dominant external force the stock is tethered to, scored 0–100. A context pillar: it does not change the base signal — it feeds amplification (tailwind ≥65 can lift BUY→STRONG BUY; headwind ≤35 can push SELL→STRONG SELL).
Primary driver: silver (the dominant value metal), plus zinc/lead/copper. Read the tape per Step 2b.
Commodity price-TREND overlay (mandatory). Silver (SLV) is the weakest metal in the complex — −18.7% MoM, in a clear short-term downtrend. Macro reads Silver short U / medium N / long O. So the primary driver is a short-term headwind, neutral medium, structural tailwind long.
| Horizon | Silver read | Driver |
|---|
| Short (0-4w) | Downtrend, −18.7% MoM — a live headwind | ~45 Headwind — no amplification |
| Medium (1-6m) | Silver macro Neutral; awaits a base | ~55 Neutral |
| Long (6-18m) | Silver macro Outperform + monetary/industrial demand; XLB long SO | ~64 Tailwind |
Amplification: none — the base signal is HOLD (never amplified), and the short-term silver downtrend would in any case block short amplification. Thesis-invalidation floor: a sustained silver bear, or a disappointing/absent maiden resource, breaks the case.
6
Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment
How the current economic climate sits relative to this stock, read from the latest Macro-Economic report. Classifies the macro pressure (Tailwind / Neutral / Headwind) — the second amplification input — and frames a long entry as Trend-Following or Contrarian with a 0–100 conviction.
Materials (XLB) is medium O / long SO, but the primary metal (silver) is short U / medium N and in a −18.7% MoM downtrend — so the net economic pressure on this specific name is Neutral (a soft silver tape offsets the Materials tailwind). Neutral pressure enables no amplification; it leaves the HOLD unchanged.
Source: sector-map (Materials/XLB + Silver asset class) · Macro report 2026-07-03
7
Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing
The risk-reward framework, relative strength vs SPY and the sector ETF, the macro overlay, news-derived sentiment, and the catalyst cluster.
Entry/Exit Timing — Pillar Score
Downtrend off the C$0.90 high; sitting on the C$0.57-0.60 shelf as silver weakens.
Risk-reward: after the Jan spike to C$0.81 and a March retest, the stock has drifted to C$0.60 — ~33% below the 52-wk high (C$0.90) and mid its C$0.415-0.90 range. Entering into a silver downtrend with no near-term resource catalyst is a weak-neutral setup.
| Signal | Reading | Score |
|---|
| Trend structure | Lower highs since Jan; sitting on the C$0.57 shelf | 44 |
| Relative strength | Weak — drifting with a soft silver tape | 42 |
| Position in range | Mid-low; C$0.74 resistance overhead, C$0.57 support below | 50 |
| Catalyst path | Maiden MRE / metallurgy consolidation (H2-2026) — not yet live | 52 |
Materials/precious = High macro-sensitivity; a silver turn would lift timing quickly, but it hasn't come.
8
Economic Event Risk
High-impact macro releases in the next 14 days that could swing this stock, plus the last 7 days of surprises.
Upcoming events (next 30 days)
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|
| 2026-07-29 | FOMC | High | Hold | Hold | ⚠️ Yes | Real-rate path drives silver's trend |
Recent surprises (last 7 days)
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|
| 2026-06 (mo) | Silver spot | −18.7% MoM | — | Negative | The dominant short-term driver headwind |
| 2026-06-09 | 94% Ag metallurgy result | Strong | — | Positive | De-risks the flowsheet |
No dated company catalyst inside 14 days. The near-term tape is set by silver (weak) and the macro real-rate path; the value catalysts (Phase-2 drilling start, maiden MRE) are H2-2026 and undated.
9
Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis
Trend, RSI and breakout status across monthly / weekly / daily / hourly / 15-minute, with a confluence verdict.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|
| Monthly | Up (LT) | Neutral | ~50 | flat | S: 0.42 R: 0.90 | None | 1.2x |
| Weekly | Downtrend | Bearish | ~45 | falling | S: 0.57 R: 0.74 | None | 1.0x |
| Daily | Weak | Bearish | ~44 | falling | S: 0.57 R: 0.62 | None | 0.8x |
| Confluence: Mostly Bearish near-term / range longer-term · MTF Score 47 |
A lower-high downtrend since January, holding the C$0.57 shelf. A break below C$0.55 opens the C$0.42 low; a reclaim of C$0.74 (likely resource-driven) would repair the trend. (No intraday feed — weekly/monthly only.)
10
Price Chart (6-Month Daily)
A 6-month daily close line with SMA50 and key support/resistance — the visual companion to the MTF table.
CDPR.V weekly close (Yahoo), Jan–Jul 2026. Downtrend off the C$0.81 high into the C$0.57-0.60 shelf as silver softened.
11
Scenario Summary
Bull / Base / Bear 12-month price paths with triggers and probability weights.
Bull C$1.10 (25%)
A maiden NI 43-101 resource confirms a large, high-value silver body, silver recovers, and a PEA path opens — the name re-rates on proven ounces. ~+83%.
Base C$0.75 (50%)
Phase-2 drilling and metallurgy progress, silver rangebound, continued funding — modest optionality re-rate ahead of the resource. ~+25%.
Bear C$0.40 (25%)
Silver stays weak, the maiden resource disappoints or slips, and dilution continues. Toward the 52-wk low. ~−33%. Trigger: silver bear or a resource delay/miss.
Probability-weighted 12-month fair value ≈ C$0.75 (~+25%) — a wide, binary distribution around the pending maiden resource; the mid-case barely clears the current price on a full valuation, which is why it is a HOLD.
12
Entry / Exit Rules
Three independent entry paths (Fundamental · Technical · Catalyst) and three exit triggers (Stop-Loss · Thesis · Profit-Target). Any one entry path is a valid entry — the more that agree, the larger the position the conviction ladder suggests. Exits are graded by severity, not count.
How to read this — the Conviction Ladder
The three entry groups are alternative paths to a buy, not a checklist. A group counts only when all its sub-conditions hold. How many groups are satisfied sets the suggested size — it does not gate whether you may enter: 1 group = Half-Size (a valid starter/scale-in), 2 = Full-Size, 3 = Over-Size (highest conviction); 0 = Wait (no path open yet). A strong overall signal can still read Wait here when the stock is well above its entry zones — that flags "good business, no entry edge right now," not a contradiction. Exits are graded by severity of what is live, not by a count: a hard stop is an Exit on its own.
Entry conviction: Wait0 of 3 groups met — no entry path open
Fundamental — not MET
No compliant resource to establish intrinsic cheapness; the cap is full for the stage.
⛔ Price below a defensible fair value
✅ No binary event within 7 days
✅ Underlying-Driver score ≥ 50 (55)
Technical — not MET
Downtrend; entry only on a reclaim OR a firm bounce off C$0.57.
⛔ Weekly close > C$0.74 on >1.5× volume
⛔ OR a tested bounce off C$0.57 with a higher low
✅ RSI 35-65 (~45)
Catalyst — not MET
Maiden MRE (H2-2026) is the catalyst — not dated inside the window.
· Maiden NI 43-101 resource print
Forecast: No group met → Wait. Fundamental cannot fire without a compliant resource (the value anchor is missing). Technical needs a reclaim of C$0.74 or a confirmed C$0.57 bounce — Low confidence while silver falls. The decisive catalyst is the maiden MRE (H2-2026, undated) — that is the event to wait for; Moderate probability of a re-rate if the resource confirms the scale story.
Exit action: Holdno exit trigger is live — hold the position
Stop-Loss — not LIVE
⛔ Two weekly closes below C$0.55 (below the shelf)
Thesis Invalidation — not LIVE
⛔ Maiden resource disappoints materially or is indefinitely delayed
⛔ Sustained silver bear market
⛔ A dilutive down-round or permit/community setback
Profit-Target — not LIVE
⛔ Into C$0.75 (base) / C$1.10 (bull) with RSI > 70
Forecast: Stop (C$0.55) is close (~8% below) given the downtrend — a real near-term risk if silver breaks. This is a Wait, not an entry.
Imagine you act at the current price of C$0.60 · as of 6 Jul 2026
What if you bought now?
You are risking ~33% (to the C$0.40 bear) to gain ~25% base / ~83% bull — a poor risk-reward until the resource lands.
What you're risking: buying a pre-resource name at a full ~C$391M cap, into a silver downtrend, with no entry path met and the stop only ~8% away. What you're gaining: optionality on a large tailings body with excellent metallurgy and Sprott backing — but you pay a full price for that option. Read: the entry edge is absent now; waiting for the maiden resource (or a firm C$0.57 hold + silver base) materially improves the deal. Wait, don't chase.
What if you sold now?
Selling now avoids a weak silver tape and a pre-resource valuation, at the cost of the maiden-resource optionality.
What you'd protect: ~33% of downside if silver stays weak and the resource slips. What you'd give up: the re-rate if the maiden MRE confirms the scale story. No profit-target or thesis-break is live yet, but the stop is near. Read: a hold for existing conviction holders; not an add zone until the resource or a silver turn.
13
Position Sizing Context
Illustrative portfolio math (not advice) translating conviction into an allocation given risk-per-share and volatility.
Position sizing not computed — no risk budget on file. The §12 Conviction Ladder reads Wait (0 of 3 paths met): no entry edge at a full pre-resource valuation into a silver downtrend. Watch the maiden resource + a C$0.57 hold. This is context, not advice.
14
Calibration Snapshot
Machine-readable snapshot of every score, level and signal, saved alongside the HTML so the next run can compute deltas.
{
"ticker": "CDPR.V",
"date": "2026-07-06",
"version": "v6",
"company": "Cerro de Pasco Resources Inc.",
"currency": "CAD",
"exchange": "TSXV",
"exchange_ticker": "TSXV:CDPR",
"isin": "CA1568281051",
"api_ticker": "CDPR.V",
"finder_ticker": "CDPR",
"finder_exchange": "TSXV",
"analysis_status": "donatien-pick",
"lifecycle_stage": "pre-resource-developer",
"sector": "Materials",
"price_at_rating": 0.6,
"signal_short": "HOLD",
"signal_medium": "HOLD",
"signal_long": "HOLD",
"primary_signal": "HOLD",
"quality_score": 61,
"valuation_score": 42,
"timing_score": 48,
"driver_score": 55,
"driver_commodity_trend": "Silver (SLV) -18.7% MoM, short downtrend; macro Silver short U / medium N / long O",
"economic_alignment_stance": "Neutral",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 52,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Neutral",
"economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
"macro_report_date": "2026-07-03",
"overall_confidence": 45,
"val_band": "full",
"warranted_multiple": null,
"actual_multiple": null,
"val_multiple_basis": "asset/optionality (no resource \u2014 anchor N/A)",
"fair_value_est": 0.65,
"stop_loss": 0.55,
"target_price": 0.75,
"scenario_base_target": 0.75,
"scenario_bull_target": 1.1,
"scenario_bear_target": 0.4,
"entry_groups_met": 0,
"entry_conviction": "Wait",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"hard_gate_state": "caution",
"gates_triggered": [],
"gates_caution": [
"Project Quantification (no resource)",
"Valuation Ceiling",
"Dilution",
"Governance/Jurisdiction"
],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"competitive_share_trajectory": "stable",
"competitive_threat_level": "moderate",
"economic_study_status": "CONFIRMED ABSENT \u2014 no NI 43-101 resource/PEA on Quiulacocha tailings (checked company site + disclosure + queries); 2012 Brophy is historical/non-compliant",
"analyst_consensus_target": 0.65,
"analyst_coverage_count": 1,
"next_update_date": "2026-07-20",
"next_update_basis": "default +14d (pre-resource; Phase-2 drilling/maiden MRE H2-2026, no dated catalyst in window)",
"prior_report": "calibration-CDPR.V-20260621-1200.json",
"prior_primary": "HOLD",
"changes_note": "HOLD held. Resource still CONFIRMED ABSENT (classification correct). De-risking (AMSAC access, community deal, 94% Ag metallurgy) offset by full ~C$391M cap for the stage + silver downtrend. Market cap corrected up from stale FMP."
}
HOLD held across all horizons. The mandatory check CONFIRMS no NI 43-101 resource / no PEA exists — the prior 'pre-resource' classification is correct. Genuine de-risking since the last look (full-site AMSAC access, notarised community agreement, a strong 94% Ag metallurgical result, ~C$32.6M cash, Sprott 16.2%) is offset by a full ~C$391M valuation for the stage (corrected up from a stale FMP cap), severe dilution, and a soft silver tape. Speculative — no entry edge until the maiden resource.
15
Data Sources & Methodology
Audit trail of every data source: fully available (✓), fallback (⚠), or failed (✗), plus provenance-based confidence haircuts.
Data Source Status
✓
get_yahoo_quote / get_yahoo_prices price, weekly series; market cap cross-checked (FMP stale — corrected to ~C$391M)
✓
get_technical_indicators (proxy) / macro silver read silver −18.7% MoM (macro snapshot)
✓
Company disclosure + SEDAR+ context (web) resource CONFIRMED ABSENT; access/metallurgy/financing verified
⚠
get_company_profile / financial-ratios stale FMP cap; fundamentals web-sourced, confidence haircut
✗
get_price_target_consensus promotional/single-analyst only
Impact on scores: Valuation confidence materially reduced — no compliant resource, stale vendor cap corrected. Quality/metallurgy well-sourced from primary releases.
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.