DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
| Horizon | Signal | Composite Score | Confidence | Key Driver |
|---|
| Short-term (1–3 mo) | HOLD | 52 | 42% | post-listing consolidation; M&A-noisy |
| Medium-term (6–12 mo) | HOLD | 58 | 42% | AI data-center rollup momentum, but Medium quality (<65) caps the base at HOLD |
| Long-term (3–5 yr) | HOLD | 60 | 45% | AI/colocation supercycle, but leverage/integration + Medium quality = HOLD (no amplification) |
Next update: 2026-07-05 — default +14d (acquisition closings are the catalysts)
1
Five-Pillar Scorecard
Five independent scores — each 0–100 with its own confidence. The three fundamental pillars (Quality / Valuation / Timing) set the base BUY/HOLD/SELL via the Decision Matrix; the two context pillars (Underlying Drivers, Economic Alignment) then amplify a BUY to STRONG BUY or a SELL to STRONG SELL when both corroborate.
Business Quality
58
high-growth rollup, unproven returns
conf 45%
Valuation Attractiveness
48
high P/S, has revenue
conf 42%
Entry/Exit Timing
55
consolidating
conf 50%
Underlying Drivers
78
strong tailwind (AI data centers)
conf 55%
Economic Alignment
64
Trend-Following
conf 55%
2
Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status
Binary safety checks — any TRIGGERED gate is a hard cap regardless of the scores above; CAUTION gates are sizing notes.
⚠️Leverage
D/E ~51 looks high, but absolute debt (~C$9.6M) is roughly matched by cash (~C$9.9M) — near net-cash, not distressed. Caution for a rollup that funds acquisitions with debt + equity.
⚠️Integration / Rollup risk
Growth is M&A-driven (Morewave, Rochester LOIs); integration, accounting noise, and acquisition discipline are unproven.
⚠️Dilution
$10.5M financing + acquisition currency — expect further issuance to fund the roll-up.
⚠️Data quantification
TSXV micro-cap; ISIN unverified; margins noisy from M&A — lower confidence.
3
Pillar Detail: Business Quality
A deep dive into the Quality score: business economics, moat, ROIC and the industry benchmark.
Business Quality — Pillar Score
Real (small) revenue growing fast via roll-up, riding AI demand — but returns/integration unproven
Lifecycle/sector: high-growth AI/colocation data-center roll-up (Information Technology / IT Services). Acquires & operates Tier II/III data centers (Vancouver, Ottawa, Saint John, Perth AU) for AI/colocation tenants. Unlike the rest of the set it has real revenue.
| Sub-signal | Reading | Score | Why |
|---|
| Revenue growth | Q3-FY26 (Mar-qtr) revenue C$910k, +849% YoY (M&A + organic); 5 data centers under management | 78 | Hyper-growth — but M&A-inflated, watch organic |
| Quality / returns | Thin/noisy margins; rollup returns on acquired assets unproven | 48 | Integration is the swing factor |
| M&A cadence | LOIs to acquire Morewave (networking) and Rochester DC assets; $10.5M financing closed | 62 | Active pipeline = the growth engine |
| Balance sheet | ~C$9.9M cash vs ~C$9.6M debt (near net-cash); D/E optically high | 52 | Adequate but acquisition-hungry |
Industry benchmark — AI-data-center demand: colocation/power demand is in a secular boom; CCDS is an edge/Tier-II-III consolidator riding it. Benchmark ~60, gated by integration risk & sub-scale.
Pricing Power
50
colocation pricing competitive
Network Effects
52
interconnection density (small)
Switching Costs
60
tenants embed in a facility — real stickiness
Cost Advantage
45
sub-scale vs hyperscale/Equinix
Intangibles
50
facility footprint & contracts
Competitive Environment. CCDS plays the Tier II/III edge niche beneath far larger operators:
| Rival | Type | Position | Vector |
|---|
| Equinix / Digital Realty | Global colocation/interconnection giants | Dominant at scale | Capital, scale, interconnection density |
| Hyperscaler in-housing | AWS/Azure/GCP own-build | Structural | Largest tenants may self-build |
| Regional Canadian DC operators | Local colocation peers | Direct niche rivals | Compete for edge tenants & assets |
Net effect: threat moderate — scale disadvantage vs incumbents, but the Tier II/III edge niche + tenant switching costs are real. Cost Advantage low (45). competitive_threat_level: moderate.
4
Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness
Sector-appropriate multiples, FCF yield, reverse-DCF implied growth, embedded optionality, and the analyst-consensus cross-check.
Valuation Attractiveness — Pillar Score
High P/S, but it has revenue and hyper-growth — EV/Revenue vs growth is the lens
It has real revenue, so EV/Revenue-vs-growth applies. P/S ~23 is high but supported by +849% growth and the AI-demand narrative.
| Metric | Value | Read |
|---|
| P/S | ~23x on hyper-growth | high but growing |
| Trailing P/E | ~9x — but M&A-noisy; do not anchor on it | noisy |
| Analyst target | single ~C$3.00 vs C$1.20 (~+150%) | +150% |
Embedded optionality / free upside. The acquisition pipeline (Morewave, Rochester + future LOIs); AI-tenant contracts that lift utilization; and operating leverage if the roll-up scales into the AI-colocation demand wave. The bull case is the rollup compounding; un-priced beyond the next closings.
Earnings-quality note (7b): the +849% and the ~9x P/E are M&A-distorted — score on organic trajectory + EV/Revenue, not the flattering trailing multiple.
5
Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers
The dominant external force the stock is tethered to, scored 0–100. A context pillar: it does not change the base signal — it feeds amplification (tailwind ≥65 can lift BUY→STRONG BUY; headwind ≤35 can push SELL→STRONG SELL).
Driver: AI/cloud compute demand → colocation & power-capacity shortage. CCDS is levered to Tier II/III edge demand and the scarcity of operational data-center capacity.
| Horizon | Reading | Score |
|---|
| Historical | AI capex & colocation demand in a multi-year boom | 80 |
| Current | Capacity-constrained market; CCDS adding facilities via M&A | 78 |
| Forward | Macro 2026-06-20: Tech (XLK) N/O/O — secular AI tailwind intact | 76 |
Driver 78 — Strong Tailwind (amplification-eligible). Not amplified here: the leverage/integration caution + thin micro-cap data, plus Medium quality (<65), keep the base at HOLD — a strong driver cannot amplify a HOLD. Thesis floor: an AI-capex pause, a failed/written-down acquisition, or financing strain.
6
Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment
How the current economic climate sits relative to this stock, read from the latest Macro-Economic report. Classifies the macro pressure (Tailwind / Neutral / Headwind) — the second amplification input — and frames a long entry as Trend-Following or Contrarian with a 0–100 conviction.
Macro rates Tech (XLK) N/O/O and the AI-infrastructure theme is a clear secular tailwind, so CCDS sits Trend-Following (conviction 64). The Tailwind would amplify a BUY base, but the base is HOLD (Medium quality <65, no Attractive valuation), and a Tailwind only amplifies a BUY base — so it does not lift the signal.
Source: sector-map (Tech) · Macro report 2026-06-20
7
Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing
The risk-reward framework, relative strength vs SPY and the sector ETF, the macro overlay, news-derived sentiment, and the catalyst cluster.
Entry/Exit Timing — Pillar Score
Consolidating around C$1.20 after the early-2026 spike to C$2.25 and pullback
Listed/active from Jan-2026; spiked to C$2.25, fell to C$1.00 (Mar), and is consolidating around C$1.20 on M&A headlines.
| Sub-signal | Reading | Score |
|---|
| Trend | Based after the pullback; ranging C$1.05-1.45 | 56 |
| Risk-reward | Support C$1.00-1.05; resistance C$1.35-1.45 | 54 |
| Catalyst | Acquisition closings (Morewave, Rochester) + revenue prints | 60 |
Timing 55 — neutral-improving. Based and consolidating; deal closings are the catalysts.
8
Economic Event Risk
High-impact macro releases in the next 14 days that could swing this stock, plus the last 7 days of surprises.
Upcoming events (next 30 days)
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Core PCE (May) | High | 0.3% m/m | 0.2% | ⚠ Med | Rates drive long-duration growth multiples |
| 2026-07-02 | Non-Farm Payrolls (Jun) | High | +70k | +172k | ⚠ Med | Risk appetite for micro-cap growth |
| 2026-07-14 | CPI (Jun YoY) | High | 3.9% | 4.2% | ⚠ Med | Cooling CPI helps growth valuations |
Recent surprises (last 7 days)
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|
| 2026-06-17 | Fed Rate Decision | 3.75% | 3.75% | inline | Held; higher-for-longer |
AI-infrastructure demand is the driver; macro is secondary. Rate relief would help a micro-cap growth multiple at the margin.
9
Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis
Trend, RSI and breakout status across monthly / weekly / daily / hourly / 15-minute, with a confluence verdict.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|
| Monthly | Basing → | Neutral | ~50 | flattening | S: 1.00 R: 2.25 | None | — |
| Weekly | Consolidating → | Neutral | ~52 | flat | S: 1.05 R: 1.45 | None | — |
| Daily | Consolidating → | Neutral | ~52 | flat | S: 1.12 R: 1.30 | None | — |
| Hourly | n/a | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 15-min | n/a | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Confluence: Mixed / Neutral · MTF Score 52 |
Short listing history; based after the Jan spike and consolidating around C$1.20. M&A closings or revenue prints would set the next move.
10
Price Chart (6-Month Daily)
A 6-month daily close line with SMA50 and key support/resistance — the visual companion to the MTF table.
CCDS.V weekly close (CAD) since Jan-2026 listing, with 8-week MA. Spiked to C$2.25, pulled back to C$1.00, now consolidating ~C$1.20.
11
Scenario Summary
Bull / Base / Bear 12-month price paths with triggers and probability weights.
Bull — C$2.50 (~+108%)
Roll-up scales, acquisitions close & integrate, AI tenants lift utilization; re-rate toward the analyst target. ~25%.
Base — C$1.70 (~+42%)
Closed LOIs + organic growth lift revenue; market credits the AI-colocation story. ~45%.
Bear — C$0.80 (~-33%)
Integration stumble, a written-down acquisition, dilutive financing, or an AI-capex pause. ~30%.
12
Entry / Exit Rules
Three independent entry paths (Fundamental · Technical · Catalyst) and three exit triggers (Stop-Loss · Thesis · Profit-Target). Any one entry path is a valid entry — the more that agree, the larger the position the conviction ladder suggests. Exits are graded by severity, not count.
How to read this — the Conviction Ladder
The three entry groups are alternative paths to a buy, not a checklist. A group counts only when all its sub-conditions hold. How many groups are satisfied sets the suggested size — it does not gate whether you may enter: 1 group = Half-Size (a valid starter/scale-in), 2 = Full-Size, 3 = Over-Size (highest conviction); 0 = Wait (no path open yet). A strong overall signal can still read Wait here when the stock is well above its entry zones — that flags "good business, no entry edge right now," not a contradiction. Exits are graded by severity of what is live, not by a count: a hard stop is an Exit on its own.
Entry conviction: Wait0 of 3 groups met — no entry path open
Fundamental — not MET
Below base fair value on a hyper-growth AI-infra rollup.
✅ Price C$1.20 < base fair value ~C$1.70
✅ No binary report within 7 days
✅ Underlying-Driver ≥ 50 (78)
Technical — not MET
Mid-range; prefer a reclaim of C$1.35 or a bounce off C$1.05.
⛔ Daily close > C$1.35 on >1.5x volume
⛔ OR tested bounce off C$1.00-1.05
✅ RSI 35-65 (~52)
Catalyst — not MET
Deal closings pending.
⛔ Acquisition closes & integrates accretively / strong revenue print
Forecast: ENTRY — Fundamental MET (below base fair value + AI driver). Technical needs a C$1.35 reclaim or C$1.05 bounce. Catalyst: the Morewave/Rochester closings + the next revenue print. Confidence: Moderate (M&A timing).
Exit action: Holdno exit trigger is live — hold the position
Stop-Loss — not LIVE
⛔ Two weekly closes below C$0.95
Thesis Invalidation — not LIVE
⛔ An acquisition is written down / integration fails
⛔ OR a heavily dilutive raise
⛔ OR AI-capex demand stalls
Profit-Target — not LIVE
⛔ Into C$1.70 (base) with RSI>70
Forecast: Stop ~21% below; the swing factors are deal execution and AI demand.
Imagine you act at the current price of C$1.20 · as of 21 Jun 2026
What if you bought now?
You'd be risking ~33% (bear C$0.80) to gain ~+42% to +108% (base/bull) on the AI-data-center roll-up.
- Risking: integration/acquisition risk, dilution, an AI-capex pause; only 1 of 3 entry paths met.
- Gaining: a hyper-growth name with real revenue on the AI-colocation wave; the acquisition pipeline ~for free.
- Net: a half-size starter for AI-infra bulls; size up on accretive deal closings.
What if you sold now?
You'd be giving up the +42% base re-rating to avoid a ~33% rollup-stumble drawdown.
- Giving up: the AI-colocation compounding optionality.
- Protecting: against integration/financing risk. Exit rules triggered now? None.
- Net: hold/accumulate zone for AI-infra bulls comfortable with micro-cap rollup risk.
13
Position Sizing Context
Illustrative portfolio math (not advice) translating conviction into an allocation given risk-per-share and volatility.
Position sizing not computed — specify your portfolio allocation and role for sizing guidance.
14
Calibration Snapshot
Machine-readable snapshot of every score, level and signal, saved alongside the HTML so the next run can compute deltas.
{
"ticker": "CCDS.V",
"date": "2026-06-21",
"version": "v6",
"exchange_ticker": "TSXV:CCDS",
"isin": "UNVERIFIED",
"price_at_rating": 1.2,
"currency": "CAD",
"signal_short": "HOLD",
"signal_medium": "HOLD",
"signal_long": "HOLD",
"primary_signal": "HOLD",
"quality_score": 58,
"valuation_score": 48,
"timing_score": 55,
"driver_score": 78,
"lifecycle_stage": "high-growth-rollup",
"economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 64,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Tailwind",
"economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
"macro_report_date": "2026-06-20",
"moat_score": 51,
"competitive_share_trajectory": "gaining",
"competitive_threat_level": "moderate",
"overall_confidence": 42,
"fair_value_est": 1.7,
"stop_loss": 0.95,
"target_price": 1.7,
"scenario_base_target": 1.7,
"scenario_bull_target": 2.5,
"analyst_consensus_target": 3.0,
"analyst_target_high": 3.0,
"analyst_target_low": 3.0,
"analyst_coverage_count": 1,
"hard_gate_state": "caution",
"gates_triggered": [],
"gates_caution": [
"leverage",
"integration",
"dilution"
],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"entry_groups_met": 0,
"entry_conviction": "Wait",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"next_update_date": "2026-07-05",
"next_update_basis": "default +14d",
"analysis_status": "donatien-pick",
"finder_ticker": "CCDS",
"finder_exchange": "TSXV"
}
15
Data Sources & Methodology
Audit trail of every data source: fully available (✓), fallback (⚠), or failed (✗), plus provenance-based confidence haircuts.
Data Source Status
✓
get_yahoo_quote/prices CCDS.V price history & quote (CAD)
✓
get_stock_news CCDS.V Morewave & Rochester acquisition LOIs
✗
get_company_profile / FMP no FMP coverage (TSXV micro-cap); ISIN UNVERIFIED; financials via web (stockanalysis/stockopedia)
✓
Web (Q3 results, acquisitions, competitors) revenue, roll-up, leverage context
Impact on scores: Confidence ~42-45 — thin micro-cap data, M&A-noisy margins, ISIN unverified. The thesis is the AI-data-center roll-up; size for integration risk.
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.