Lifecycle & sector: Consumer Discretionary · Travel Services (online travel agency / marketplace). Classified Mature / Cash-Cow: low-to-mid-teens revenue growth, ~34% operating margins, ~32% FCF margin, and aggressive buybacks. Scored on margins, ROA/ROIC, FCF and the moat — not on book-equity ratios, which are distorted (see denominator note).
| Sub-signal | BKNG | Read vs peers / history | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue trajectory | TTM ~$27.7B; FY24→FY25 ~+13.5%; consensus FY26 +~9-12% | Decelerating off the post-COVID surge but still well above mature-sector norm; gross bookings & room-nights at records | 76 |
| Profitability vs peers | Operating margin 34.3%; EBITDA 34.4%; net 22.2% | Best-in-class for OTAs (Expedia op margin ~mid-teens, est.); asset-light scale | 88 |
| Cash generation | FCF ~$9.0B; FCF margin ~32%; FCF/OCF 96.7%; FCF/EPS conversion >100% | Elite cash conversion; capex <2% of revenue | 90 |
| Balance-sheet health | Interest coverage 7.8x; cash ~$16B; net debt low (<0.5x EBITDA); current ratio 1.06 | Healthy. Negative book equity is a buyback artifact, not leverage stress (see note) | 74 |
| Capital-light returns (ROA/ROIC) | ROA excellent (FMP ROA sub-score 5/5); ROIC very high on tiny invested capital | Hallmark of the model — high returns on negligible tangible capital | 85 |
Moat average ≈ 69 — a wide but not impregnable moat; the two competition-exposed dimensions (Switching Costs, Cost Advantage) are scored down from the named-competitor read below, not in the abstract.
| Rival | Threat type | Share trajectory (BKNG vs rival) | Moat-erosion vector |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expedia Group (Brand Expedia, Hotels.com, Vrbo) | Direct OTA rival | BKNG stable / modestly gaining in hotels; Expedia stronger in US & in Vrbo alternative-accom | Price/marketing competition on overlapping inventory; caps Pricing Power |
| Airbnb | Alternative-accommodation substitution | Airbnb growing faster in alternative accom; BKNG growing its own alt-accom supply to defend | Erodes Switching Costs & the supply-side network in the fastest-growing lodging segment |
| Google Travel (Hotel/Flights, meta) | Disintermediation of top-of-funnel | Structural — BKNG is both customer & competitor; ongoing pressure | Raises traffic-acquisition cost & caps Cost Advantage / Pricing Power; the single biggest long-run risk |
| Trip.com | Regional (APAC) rival | Competes with Agoda in Asia; BKNG defending via Agoda | Geographic share contest in the highest-growth region |
Net effect on the moat: → Switching Costs trimmed to 52 (Airbnb substitution + low traveller loyalty), Cost Advantage to 70 and Pricing Power to 60 (Google funnel dependency). This read propagates to the §11 Bear trigger (Google/Airbnb share & take-rate compression) and the §12 thesis-invalidation rule.
totalOtherIncomeExpensesNet ≈ −$1.66B TTM, mostly fair-value losses on equity investments + net interest) depress GAAP net income every quarter: TTM operating income is $9.49B but GAAP net income is only $6.15B. So nonop_pct_of_net_income is negative (~−27%) — non-operating items are a drag, not an AI-style inflator. Consequence: the trailing GAAP P/E of 22.5 overstates how expensive the stock is. On operating/adjusted earnings it is ~18x trailing and ~16x forward (FY26) / ~14x (FY27). Valuation is scored off the clean (adjusted/operating) figures, which are cheaper than the headline.| Multiple | BKNG | Reference read | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E (adj.) | 16.4x (FY26 $10.45) / 13.9x (FY27 $12.33) | Low end of BKNG's own 5-yr range (typically ~20-25x); cheaper than its quality warrants | 76 |
| Trailing P/E | GAAP 22.5x · adj. ~18x | Score the adjusted ~18x (GAAP depressed by non-op losses) | 62 |
| PEG (fwd) | ~1.0-1.3 (FMP fwd 1.26) | Reasonable vs ~16-18% forward EPS CAGR | 66 |
| Own 5-yr valuation decile | Decile ~2-3 (near 52-wk low $150.14; −19% YTD) | Bottom-third of its own range — attractive | 78 |
Framing: the in-production OTA business justifies most of the $171.78; the ad-network + connected-trip + trough-buyback options are upside you largely get for nothing. Tilt: +5 to Valuation.
Confidence note: peer-OTA medians (Expedia/Airbnb) and relative-strength comparisons are estimated (web verification unavailable this run); Valuation confidence trimmed accordingly.
Primary driver: global consumer travel demand & discretionary spending power (secondary: interest-rate regime via discretionary-valuation sensitivity, and oil/jet-fuel via travel sentiment). BKNG's gross bookings track directly with the propensity and ability of consumers to travel.
| Horizon | Read | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Historical (12-24m) | Travel fully normalised post-COVID; record room-nights but growth decelerating to a sustainable mid-teens pace | 60 |
| Current state | Resilient summer-travel demand; the Iran/Hormuz peace deal (Jun 2026) eased oil and lifted travel-stock sentiment — mild positive. Offset by a hawkish, higher-for-longer Fed pressuring discretionary budgets | 64 |
| Forward (6-12m) | Consensus mid-teens revenue growth; resilient demand vs a discretionary-spending caution under higher-for-longer rates — balanced | 61 |
Driver score: 62 / 100 — Neutral (mild tailwind). Weighted (0.25/0.50/0.25): 60·0.25 + 64·0.50 + 61·0.25 = ~62.
BKNG is not in the macro report's Economic Watchlist, so Economic Alignment is read from the Driver-Sector matrix: XLY = Short Outperform / Medium Outperform / Long Neutral. Anchoring on the Medium horizon, the macro pressure is a Tailwind → a long is Trend-Following with conviction ~63 (tempered by the hawkish, higher-for-longer regime and the Long-horizon fade to Neutral). This Tailwind did NOT amplify the signal: amplification needs the Underlying Driver ≥65 as well, and it is 62, so all three horizons stay BUY (no STRONG BUY).
Source: sector-map (GICS Consumer Discretionary → XLY) · Macro report 2026-06-20
| Sub-signal | Read | Score |
|---|---|---|
| MTF trend score | Monthly uptrend / weekly downtrend / daily recovering / hourly weakening / 15-min down → weighted ~50 (mixed / transitioning) | 50 |
| Risk-reward (daily) | Price reclaimed daily SMA50 ($169.47) off a higher low at the $150 weekly support; stop ~$149 is ~1.3x ATR — tight, favourable base | 58 |
| Relative strength | −19% over 6mo vs S&P +10.9% (laggard), but +11% over the last month (recent leadership). 52-wk position ~26% (beaten down). (RS estimated.) | 42 |
| Macro overlay (Cons. Disc., 15% wt) | Hawkish higher-for-longer Fed = headwind to discretionary multiples; Hormuz resolution = travel tailwind — net ~neutral | 50 |
| Sentiment (grades + news) | 10 recent firm actions all "maintain"; news tone constructive (Trade Desk deal, "deep-value" pieces, rising estimates) | 53 |
| Catalyst layer | No earnings within 14 days (next ~late July); clear calendar — calm | 70 |
Timing score: 50 / 100 — Neutral, tentatively improving. Composition: MTF 0.30 + risk-reward 0.20 + macro 0.15 + sentiment 0.18 + catalyst 0.17. The honest read: a great business at an attractive price caught in a still-repairing tape — monthly trend intact, daily turning up off support, but the weekly trend is not yet confirmed back up.
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | S&P Global Composite/Services PMI (Jun) | Medium | 50.8 / 51.0 | 51.5 / 50.7 | ⚠ Medium | Services PMI is a coincident read on consumer/travel services demand |
| 2026-06-24 | New Home Sales (May) | Medium | 2.9% | −6.2% | · Low | Housing wealth effect — minor for travel |
| ~2026-07-28 | BKNG Q2 2026 earnings (est.) | High | — | — | ✅ Yes | The key stock-specific catalyst — room-nights, bookings, take-rate, guidance |
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | FOMC decision & projections | Hold / hawkish | Hold | · hawkish | Higher-for-longer pressures discretionary valuations — mild headwind |
| 2026-06-18 | Initial Jobless Claims | 226K | 225K | inline | Labour market firm — supports consumer travel spend |
| ~2026-06-15 | Iran/Hormuz peace deal | Resolved | — | positive | Oil eased; travel-stock sentiment lifted (EXPE/ABNB +5% on the news) |
No high-impact macro release is travel-critical inside the 14-day window. The two most relevant recent items net out: a hawkish FOMC (mild headwind to discretionary multiples) vs the Hormuz de-escalation (a travel-sentiment tailwind). BKNG is Medium macro-sensitivity, so no 3-day WAIT-for-event override applies. The real catalyst is Q2 earnings in late July.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend ↑ | Bullish | 47 | +, hist falling | S: 127 / R: 213-234 | Resist breakout | 0.8x |
| Weekly | Downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 47 | −, hist turning up | S: 150 / R: 221-234 | Support breakdown | 0.9x |
| Daily | Recovering → | Neutral-Bull | 56 | +, bull cross | S: 158-161 / R: 177-194 | Resist breakout | 2.3x |
| Hourly | Weakening ↓ | Bearish | 40 | − | S: 170 / R: 177 | Support breakdown | — |
| 15-min | Strong down ↓ | Bearish | 42 | − | S: 170 / R: 174 | Support breakdown | — |
| Confluence: Mixed / transitioning · MTF Score 50 | |||||||
Textbook "higher-timeframe intact, lower-timeframe repairing" picture. The monthly uptrend and a daily reclaim of the SMA50 with a bullish MACD cross (off a higher low at the $150 weekly support) are constructive; the weekly downtrend (still below the falling weekly 50) and soft intraday are the not-yet-confirmed legs. Key level: a weekly close back above ~$186 would confirm the turn; loss of $150 invalidates it. The 2.3x daily volume on 6/17 was an FOMC/quad-witching day, so the cleaner technical evidence is the support bounce, not that volume spike.
6-month daily close (orange = SMA50). Price has reclaimed the SMA50 off the $150.14 weekly support; $176.8/$193.92 are the overhead daily resistances, $220 the analyst median target.
Travel demand stays robust, take-rate holds, the ad-network/connected-trip options begin to monetise, and the multiple re-rates back toward its historical ~20-22x on rising EPS while buybacks shrink the share count. Approaches the Street's high targets.
Mid-teens revenue growth, ~34% margins sustained, ~$9-10B FCF mostly returned via buybacks. The trough multiple normalises part-way toward consensus ($220-231). The probability-weighted centre of gravity.
Competitive trigger: Google Travel disintermediation lifts traffic-acquisition cost and/or Airbnb keeps taking alternative-accommodation share, compressing take-rate — combined with a higher-for-longer-driven discretionary-travel slowdown. Growth decelerates below sector median and the multiple de-rates further.
Probability-weighted 12-month value ≈ 0.25·$265 + 0.55·$210 + 0.20·$140 = ~$210 (+22%), skewed favourably: the downside to the bear ($140) is ~−18% while base+bull average well above — a positive expected value with a defined ~$149 stop.
Forecast: Fundamental + Technical are met NOW → 2 of 3 = Full-Size (treat as a scale-in given the unconfirmed weekly trend). The Catalyst path is event-dependent on Q2 earnings (~late July) — if the print beats with raised guidance on heavy volume it would open the 3rd path (Over-Size); confidence Moderate. A loss of $150 would reset the Technical path to unmet.
Forecast: Stop ($149) is ~13% below price and below the recently-defended $150 support — unlikely in 4-6 weeks absent a broad risk-off or a Q2 miss. Profit-target (≥$220 + overbought) is >28% away — not near-term. No exit trigger is live; action = Hold.
What you're risking: the drawdown to the ~$149 hard stop (−13%) and, in the bear case, ~−18% to $140 if Google/Airbnb pressure take-rate into a discretionary slowdown; plus the unconfirmed weekly downtrend (you're buying before the weekly turn confirms) and Q2-earnings path risk in late July. What you're gaining: immediate exposure to +22% base ($210) and +54% bull ($265) upside, a ~6.8% FCF yield and ~0.9% dividend collected while you wait, ~7%/yr buyback shrinking the share count at a trough multiple, and the free ad-network/connected-trip optionality. Risk-reward to base ~1.7:1, far higher to bull. Read: acting now is favourable as a scale-in; a confirmed weekly reclaim of ~$186 (or a post-earnings beat) would justify upsizing.
What you're giving up: +22% to the $210 base, +28% to the $220 median target, +34% to the $230.70 consensus, plus the FCF/dividend and the embedded optionality — and you'd be selling well below every analyst target and below fair value. What you're protecting: the ~18% bear drawdown to $140 if the competitive/macro thesis breaks. Is any exit rule live? No — price is well above the $149 stop and far from the $220 profit-target, and no thesis-invalidation condition is met. Read: there is no mechanical reason to sell; this is a hold/accumulate zone.
The §12 Conviction Ladder reads Full-Size (2 of 3 entry paths met) — but no user allocation or portfolio role was provided, so a specific portfolio % is not computed. Specify your allocation and role for sizing guidance.
Volatility context: daily ATR ~$5.95 = ~3.5% of price (expected daily move). Beta ~1.09 (roughly market-like risk). 52-wk range $150.14-$233.58; the stock is ~26% off its high and near the low. Given the unconfirmed weekly trend, a staggered entry is prudent: e.g. a starter tranche now, add on a weekly reclaim of ~$186, and a third near the $158-161 support if it pulls back.
{
"ticker": "BKNG",
"exchange": "NASDAQ",
"exchange_ticker": "NASDAQ:BKNG",
"api_ticker": "BKNG",
"isin": "US09857L1089",
"date": "2026-06-20",
"version": "v6",
"analysis_status": "on-going",
"finder_ticker": "BKNG",
"finder_exchange": "NASDAQ",
"user_horizon": null,
"user_allocation_pct": null,
"portfolio_role": null,
"price_at_rating": 171.78,
"signal_short": "BUY",
"signal_medium": "BUY",
"signal_long": "BUY",
"primary_signal": "BUY",
"quality_score": 80,
"valuation_score": 70,
"timing_score": 50,
"driver_score": 62,
"lifecycle_stage": "mature_cashcow",
"quality_detail": {
"industry_benchmark_name": "Rule of 40 (asset-light variant)",
"industry_benchmark_value": 45,
"industry_benchmark_score": 80,
"moat_score": 69,
"roic_percentile_vs_peers": 90,
"capital_allocation": 80,
"management_skin_in_game": 50
},
"valuation_detail": {
"fcf_yield": 6.8,
"implied_growth_rate": 2.5,
"consensus_growth_rate": 16.0,
"historical_valuation_decile": 2,
"forward_pe_adj": 16.4,
"gaap_trailing_pe": 22.5
},
"timing_detail": {
"mtf_confluence": 50,
"risk_reward_score": 58,
"relative_strength_vs_spy": -30.0,
"relative_strength_vs_sector": -5.0,
"catalyst_clustering_score": 70,
"dynamic_macro_weight": 0.15
},
"nonop_pct_of_net_income": -26.9,
"clean_pe": 18.2,
"clean_peg": 1.05,
"competitive_share_trajectory": "stable",
"competitive_threat_level": "moderate",
"economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 63,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Tailwind",
"economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
"macro_report_date": "2026-06-20",
"analyst_consensus_target": 230.7,
"analyst_target_high": 309.84,
"analyst_target_low": 175,
"analyst_target_median": 220,
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 34.3,
"analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
"analyst_bullish_pct": 64.8,
"analyst_coverage_count": 71,
"fmp_rating": "B-",
"fmp_overall_score": 2,
"recent_upgrades_30d": 0,
"recent_downgrades_30d": 0,
"overall_confidence": 70,
"fair_value_est": 205,
"stop_loss": 149,
"target_price": 210,
"scenario_base_target": 210,
"scenario_bull_target": 265,
"entry_groups_met": 2,
"entry_conviction": "Full-Size",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"hard_gate_state": "clear",
"gates_triggered": [],
"gates_caution": [],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"next_update_date": "2026-07-06",
"next_update_basis": "default +14d (no impactful event in window; next earnings est. ~2026-07-28)",
"next_check_date": "2026-07-06"
}
First report for BKNG — no prior calibration, so no "Changes Since Last Report" box. Promoted from Stock-Finder (Fit 79). Base signal BUY across all three horizons; the Tailwind economy did not amplify to STRONG BUY because the Underlying Driver (62) is below the 65 threshold.