Signals unchanged vs the report dated 16 Jul 2026: Short HOLD · Medium BUY · Long STRONG BUY. The setup is the same — a cheap, high-quality producer with a structural long-term gold tailwind, held back short-term by a falling gold tape. The one real change is entry-timing, not signal.
AngloGold Ashanti is one of the world's largest gold producers, mining gold and by-products (silver, sulphuric acid) from operations across Africa, Australia and the Americas. Its flagship is the 100%-owned Geita mine in Tanzania, and its portfolio spans long-life assets on three continents. The core business is simple: pull ore out of the ground, process it into gold, and sell it into the market — so its economics are geared to two things it does not control, the gold price and its all-in sustaining cost per ounce. What sets it apart among senior producers is a re-based, lower-cost, diversified asset base after years of portfolio pruning, a UK/US-domiciled structure (it moved its primary listing to the NYSE in 2023), and a balance sheet strong enough to fund growth, a rising dividend and a newly-approved US$2.0bn buyback through the cycle. For a non-expert reader: think of it as a large, geographically spread gold-mining business whose profits rise and fall with the gold price, cushioned by costs that sit comfortably below where gold currently trades.
Lifecycle: Mature / Cash Cow. A large, profitable, dividend-paying gold producer with stable-to-rising output. The right lens is Mining/Materials: AISC vs spot, FCF yield, balance-sheet strength and reserve life — not P/E or revenue-growth-in-isolation, which are cyclically distorted for a miner.
| Sub-signal | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Profitability vs peers | TTM EBITDA margin 63%, net margin 31%, operating margin 48% — top-tier for a senior gold miner, lifted by the high gold price | 82 |
| Cash generation | FCF yield ~9%; record Q1 FCF $1.2B; op-cash-flow/sales 51%. Cash conversion strong | 85 |
| Balance-sheet health | Net cash (cash $3.2B > debt $2.3B), debt/equity 0.27, interest coverage ~26×, current ratio 2.7 | 88 |
| Revenue trajectory | Revenue +65% YoY (Q1 $3.24B vs $1.96B) — mostly gold-price- and Sukari-volume-driven; score with cyclical caution | 60 |
| ROIC / capital allocation | ROE ~43% and ROA ~23%, both rated 5/5 by FMP; disciplined post-restructuring portfolio; rising, well-covered dividend + a newly-approved US$2.0bn buyback | 72 |
Moat average ≈ 49. This is structural and honest: a gold miner has no pricing power or switching-cost moat — its “quality” is asset quality, cost position and balance sheet, all of which are strong. Do not confuse a high Quality score with a durable competitive moat; the score rests on execution and asset base, not on defensibility against rivals.
Primary lens for a miner: P/NAV / EV/EBITDA at the base-case gold deck + FCF yield. P/E is shown only for context (cyclically distorted).
| Metric | AU | Read |
|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | ~5.6× | vs ~7.9× warranted / 8× guardrail — Attractive |
| FCF yield | ~9% | >8% — very attractive |
| P/E (TTM) | 11.7× | Low, but cyclical; clean P/E ≈ same (non-op is a small drag). Fwd P/E ~8× |
| Dividend yield | ~5.9% | Well-covered by FCF (payout ~52% of earnings) |
| P/B | 4.71× | Elevated — the one rich-looking multiple (book understates in-ground value) |
Implied-growth read: at $79.67 on ~$6.81 TTM EPS (11.7×), the market embeds little-to-no real earnings growth — consistent with a base-case-flat gold deck. The price does not require gold to keep rising; a flat-to-firm deck and stable output support it.
The driver is the gold price, full stop — a gold miner is a geared bet on the direction of the metal. The level is excellent; the trend is the near-term risk, and the two must be scored separately.
| Horizon | Driver read | Amplifies? |
|---|---|---|
| Short (0–4w) | Headwind — spot below a falling 50-DMA and below the 200-DMA; 8-wk momentum negative. Level (spot vs AISC) is strong, but the tape is down. Macro Gold short = N | No — short amplification OFF |
| Medium (1–6m) | Neutral / soft-Tailwind — macro Gold medium = O; a basing tape (4-wk momentum flat) but no confirmed 50-day reclaim yet | No amplification (yet) |
| Long (6–18m) | Tailwind — structural de-dollarisation + central-bank accumulation + fiscal-debasement bid; macro Gold long = O, USD long = U | Yes — eligible to lift BUY→STRONG BUY |
Level score 85 (spot ~$4,050 vs AISC ~$1,900 = 53% margin) is the current-state level. The three-horizon overlay is what governs amplification: only the long horizon carries a clean Tailwind. Short is capped at Headwind (no STRONG BUY on the short leg into a falling metal, however cheap the equity); medium is neutral-to-soft. Secondaries: real 10-Y at 4.71% (a mild headwind for gold short-term), USD firm short-term (headwind) but structurally out long-term — consistent with the per-horizon split.
Macro regime: Stagflation-lite (energy-supply-shock driven, narrow contested lead). Gold asset-class signal N/O/O (short Neutral, medium & long Outperform); Materials XLB N/O/SO. De-dollarisation, fiscal-debasement and the live Iran/Hormuz safe-haven bid give gold a structural real-money floor (medium/long Tailwind); the near-term is a firm USD + elevated front-end rates + fast-money hawkish selling (short Neutral). Net economic PRESSURE = Neutral short, Tailwind medium/long — so the economy corroborates amplification at the long horizon (and increasingly the medium), matching the driver.
Source: sector-map (macro asset-class Gold + XLB) · Macro report 2026-07-20
The share tracks the gold tape, and both are in a pullback that is now basing. AU at $79.67 is below its daily SMA50 (~$86) and SMA200 (~$91) — a daily downtrend — having fallen from the ~$129 spring high alongside gold's drawdown. It has, however, put in a higher low (~$74.9 on 19 Jul) and bounced ~7% to the low-$80s.
| Sub-signal | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| MTF confluence | Monthly uptrend intact; weekly + daily downtrend; hourly/15-min turned up — confluence mixed-bearish | 42 |
| Risk-reward | Higher low at ~$74.9; support $74–$77 within ~5%; upside to fair value ~$109 is large — improving R:R | 52 |
| Relative strength vs SPY / sector | Underperforming as gold corrected; XLB short-term N | 40 |
| Sentiment (grades) | All “maintain” over 30 days (JPMorgan, Citi, Scotia, RBC); no downgrades — supportive | 56 |
| Catalyst clustering | H1 earnings 31 Jul + FOMC 29 Jul + PCE 31 Jul all cluster in one week — event-heavy, timing confidence capped | 44 |
Read: the monthly trend is still up, but the intermediate trend rolled over with the metal and has only begun basing. This is a “buy-the-dip-in-an-uptrend” setup only once the tape steadies and the earnings binary clears — there is a tentative higher low but no confirmed reclaim of the 50-day, and a binary H1 print lands 31 Jul. Timing stays weak; the reachable early entry is a tested bounce off support after the print, not chasing into it.
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | FOMC Rate Decision (Warsh) | High | Hold 3.50–3.75%; no Sep-cut green light | 3.75% | ✅ Yes | Gold is real-rate-sensitive; a hawkish hold into the energy shock pressures the metal short-term |
| 2026-07-31 | AngloGold Q2 / H1 2026 results | High | Strong FCF on record gold; watch AISC & buyback pace | Q1 FCF $1.2B | ✅ Yes | Company binary — resets FCF/AISC/capital-return; the reason this report reschedules to 3 Aug |
| 2026-07-31 | US Core PCE (Jun) | High | +0.2% MoM (last clean pre-gasoline print) | +0.2% | ✅ Yes | Stagflation test — sticky inflation + slowing growth is the gold-supportive combination medium-term |
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | AngloGold AGM — US$2.0bn buyback approved | Approved | Approved | as expected | Positive — anti-dilutive capital return; share-count reduction ahead |
| 2026-07-20 | Macro state refresh (Stagflation-lite) | Gold N/O/O | — | Gold medium upgraded to O | Mild tailwind — medium-term gold signal firmed vs the prior read |
The near calendar is event-heavy and clustered: the 29 Jul FOMC, then AngloGold's own H1 print AND Core PCE both on 31 Jul. The FOMC/PCE set the real-rate path that drives gold; the H1 print is the company binary. Because a discrete dated earnings catalyst (31 Jul) falls inside the +14d ceiling, this report reschedules for earnings + 1 trading day (2026-08-03). Watch: a hawkish FOMC + firm real rates extend the gold pullback; the H1 FCF/AISC print and buyback pace are the company-specific swing.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend ↑ | Bullish | 57 | +, rising | S: $22.5 R: $129 | Resist. breakout | 0.6× |
| Weekly | Downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 45 | −, falling | S: $77.1 R: $97.2 | None | 0.7× |
| Daily | Strong downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 46 | −, hist. turning up | S: $74.6/$77.1 R: $94.8 | Support breakdown | 0.6× |
| Hourly | Recovering ↑ | Neutral | 59 | +, small | S: $79.4 R: $82.5 | Resist. breakout | — |
| 15-min | Up ↑ | Neutral | 63 | +, flat | S: $77.7 R: $80.9 | Resist. breakout | — |
| Confluence: Mixed-bearish (monthly up, intermediate down, intraday recovering) · MTF Score 44 | |||||||
The secular monthly trend is still up, but the weekly and daily trends have rolled over with gold — price is below both the 50-day (~$86) and 200-day (~$91). The daily MACD histogram is turning up off a ~$74.9 higher low and the intraday frames have recovered, an early sign of basing, but there is no confirmed reclaim of the 50-day. Key levels: $74–$77 support (a two-day break below is the stop zone); reclaiming the 50-day near $86 would flip the intermediate trend.
AU pulled back from ~$129 with gold; now below its 50/200-day, basing off a ~$74.9 higher low. Illustrative recent closes vs a falling 50-day.
Gold reclaims its uptrend and pushes to new highs (a dovish FOMC / soft PCE / renewed CB and safe-haven buying). At AU's ~$1,900 AISC the incremental gold drops almost straight to FCF; the equity re-rates toward the ~0.9–1.0× P/NAV of quality peers and toward the $110–$134 analyst-target zone, with the ~5.9% dividend, the buyback and Obuasi/Sukari growth as kickers. Requires the metal's trend to turn, which it has not yet.
Gold holds a high but choppy range around $3,900–$4,300 (base-case deck). AU's wide AISC margin, ~9% FCF yield and covered ~5.9% dividend do the work; the stock grinds back toward its median analyst target ($110.5) / consensus ($97.75) as the intermediate downtrend resolves and the buyback shrinks the count. This is the most probable path: a cheap, cash-generative senior producer at a flat-to-firm gold price.
THE LIVE NEAR-TERM RISK. Gold's pullback extends — a hawkish 29 Jul FOMC + firmer real rates and USD push gold toward $3,500–$3,700, and/or a soft 31 Jul H1 print (rising AISC, slower buyback) disappoints; the geared equity falls through $74–$77 support toward the low-$60s (back to its winter range). Margins stay positive (AISC well below even $3,500 gold), so this is a valuation/de-rating drawdown, not an existential one — but it is the dial flashing now, not a distant tail. Falsified if gold reclaims its 50-DMA and AU reclaims $86.
Forecast: Conviction reads WAIT today (0 of 3): the value starter is switched off by the 31 Jul H1 print (the “no earnings within 7 days” condition fails), the Technical path needs either a 50-day reclaim (~$86, ~8% away, gold-dependent) or a volume-confirmed bounce off $74–$77, and the Catalyst path is the print itself. The nearest path to open is the Fundamental starter — it reopens automatically on 1 Aug once earnings clears (price still < fair value, driver ≥ 50), taking conviction to Half-Size; a constructive H1 print + a held support bounce could then fire the Technical and/or Catalyst paths for Full-Size. Buy on confirmation after the print, not into it.
Forecast: Stop at $74 is ~7% below current price and is the live risk if gold's pullback extends or the H1 print disappoints (the 29–31 Jul cluster is the near trigger). Thesis-invalidation is far off — gold would have to fall ~26% to ~$3,000 to threaten the AISC margin — so the bear case is a de-rating, not a broken thesis. Profit-target is a multi-quarter prospect requiring the gold trend to turn.
Position sizing not computed — no risk budget or portfolio role was specified for this refresh. The §12 Conviction Ladder reads Wait (0 of 3 entry paths met): the value starter is switched off by the 31 Jul H1 print, and the intermediate downtrend means no technical path is confirmed. The Fundamental starter reopens on 1 Aug once earnings clears. Specify an allocation and role for a portfolio-percentage figure.
{
"ticker": "AU",
"exchange": "NYSE",
"exchange_ticker": "NYSE:AU",
"isin": "GB00BRXH2664",
"api_ticker": "AU",
"date": "2026-07-25",
"version": "v6",
"analysis_status": "on-going",
"finder_ticker": "AU",
"finder_exchange": "\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 NYSE",
"user_horizon": null,
"user_allocation_pct": null,
"portfolio_role": null,
"company": "AngloGold Ashanti plc",
"currency": "USD",
"price_at_rating": 79.67,
"signal_short": "HOLD",
"signal_medium": "BUY",
"signal_long": "STRONG_BUY",
"primary_signal": "BUY",
"quality_score": 73,
"lifecycle_stage": "mature",
"quality_detail": {
"industry_benchmark_name": "AISC Margin (Mining)",
"industry_benchmark_value": "~53% of spot (gold ~$4,050/oz, AISC ~$1,900/oz)",
"industry_benchmark_score": 92,
"moat_score": 49,
"roic_percentile_vs_peers": 65,
"capital_allocation": 74,
"management_skin_in_game": 55
},
"valuation_score": 73,
"valuation_detail": {
"fcf_yield": 9.0,
"implied_growth_rate": 1.0,
"consensus_growth_rate": 15.0,
"historical_valuation_decile": 3
},
"warranted_multiple": 7.9,
"actual_multiple": 5.6,
"val_multiple_basis": "EV/EBITDA (TTM), miner P/NAV proxy",
"discount_rate_r": 9.21,
"risk_free_10y": 4.71,
"g_near": 6.0,
"g_term": 3.0,
"warranted_ratio": 0.71,
"val_band": "attractive",
"timing_score": 46,
"timing_detail": {
"mtf_confluence": 44,
"risk_reward_score": 52,
"relative_strength_vs_spy": -9.0,
"relative_strength_vs_sector": -4.0,
"catalyst_clustering_score": 44,
"dynamic_macro_weight": 0.2
},
"driver_score": 85,
"driver_label": "Level-strong, trend-weak",
"driver_commodity_trend": "gold basing but still in a downtrend: GLD $371.90 (spot ~$4,050/oz, web-confirmed $4,052 24 Jul); spot ~4.7% below a FALLING 50-DMA (~$390, down ~$11 over 10 sessions) and ~9.7% below the 200-DMA (~$412); 8-wk momentum \u22129%, but 4-wk momentum flat (+0.7%) as gold bases ~$365-382 (bounced off ~$365 on 23 Jun and 15 Jul); downtrend decelerating, NOT yet reversed; structural uptrend intact only on the long horizon",
"driver_horizon_read": {
"short": "Headwind",
"medium": "Neutral/soft-Tailwind",
"long": "Tailwind",
"amplifies": "long-only",
"note": "85 is the current-state LEVEL score (spot vs AISC); the per-horizon trend overlay caps Short at Headwind (short amplification OFF) while gold trends below a falling 50-DMA and the 200-DMA, leaves Medium neutral-to-soft (macro Gold medium upgraded to O but no 50-day reclaim), and only Long carries a clean Tailwind (structural de-dollar / CB real-money bid, macro Gold long=O, USD long=U)"
},
"overall_confidence": 52,
"economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 68,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Neutral",
"economic_alignment_pressure_by_horizon": {
"short": "Neutral",
"medium": "Tailwind",
"long": "Tailwind"
},
"economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
"macro_report_date": "2026-07-20",
"nonop_pct_of_net_income": -10.5,
"clean_pe": 11.7,
"clean_peg": 0.78,
"competitive_share_trajectory": "stable-to-rising",
"competitive_threat_level": "low",
"fair_value_est": 109.0,
"stop_loss": 74.0,
"target_price": 115.0,
"scenario_base_target": 115,
"scenario_bull_target": 145,
"scenario_bear_target": 60,
"analyst_consensus_target": 97.75,
"analyst_target_high": 128,
"analyst_target_low": 42,
"analyst_target_median": 110.5,
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 22.7,
"analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
"analyst_bullish_pct": 64,
"analyst_coverage_count": 14,
"fmp_rating": "A-",
"fmp_overall_score": 4,
"recent_upgrades_30d": 0,
"recent_downgrades_30d": 0,
"entry_groups_met": 0,
"entry_conviction": "Wait",
"short_entry_confirmed": false,
"short_cap_reason": "Short base signal leans BUY on the Fundamental group (cheap, driver level high), but (1) both the Technical and Catalyst entry groups are UNMET \u2014 AU is below its 50- and 200-DMA and gold is below a falling 50-DMA, so the near-term tape is not confirmed \u2014 and (2) the Fundamental group itself is now UNMET because H1 results land 31 Jul (inside 7 days). Short capped at HOLD; entry conviction Wait until the print clears (then a value starter reopens 1 Aug) and the tape confirms (a 50-DMA reclaim near $86 or a volume-confirmed bounce off $74-77).",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"hard_gate_state": "caution",
"gates_triggered": [],
"gates_caution": [
"Earnings Event Risk"
],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"next_update_date": "2026-08-03",
"next_update_basis": "AngloGold Q2 / H1 2026 results on Friday 31 Jul 2026 + 1 trading day (Mon 3 Aug) \u2014 a binary earnings catalyst that resets FCF/AISC/capital-return, earlier than the +14d ceiling (2026-08-08). Date web/press-confirmed; get_earnings_calendar returned empty. FOMC (29 Jul) + Core PCE (31 Jul) cluster in the same week.",
"next_check_date": "2026-08-03"
}
Signals unchanged vs the 16 Jul report (HOLD / BUY / STRONG BUY). The stock is ~flat ($79.14 → $79.67) and gold is basing — the tape improved at the margin (4-week momentum flat vs −6% last time) but is still below a falling 50-DMA and the 200-DMA, so the short-driver Headwind persists. The change this run is entry-timing, not signal: the 31 Jul H1 print puts Gate 2 (Earnings Event Risk) on CAUTION and switches off the Fundamental starter, dropping conviction Half-Size → Wait. No DNB trigger changed.