Signals unchanged vs the report dated 3 Jul 2026: Short HOLD · Medium BUY · Long STRONG BUY. The setup is the same — a cheap, high-quality producer with a structural long-term gold tailwind, held back short-term by a falling gold tape.
AngloGold Ashanti is one of the world's largest gold producers, mining gold and by-products (silver, sulphuric acid) from operations across Africa, Australia and the Americas. Its flagship is the 100%-owned Geita mine in Tanzania, and its portfolio spans long-life assets on three continents. The core business is simple: pull ore out of the ground, process it into gold, and sell it into the market — so its economics are geared to two things it does not control, the gold price and its all-in sustaining cost per ounce. What sets it apart among senior producers is a re-based, lower-cost, diversified asset base after years of portfolio pruning, a UK/US-domiciled structure (it moved its primary listing to the NYSE in 2023), and a balance sheet strong enough to fund growth and a rising dividend through the cycle. For a non-expert reader: think of it as a large, geographically spread gold-mining business whose profits rise and fall with the gold price, cushioned by costs that sit comfortably below where gold currently trades.
Lifecycle: Mature / Cash Cow. A large, profitable, dividend-paying gold producer with stable-to-rising output. The right lens is Mining/Materials: AISC vs spot, FCF yield, balance-sheet strength and reserve life — not P/E or revenue-growth-in-isolation, which are cyclically distorted for a miner.
| Sub-signal | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Profitability vs peers | TTM EBITDA margin 63%, net margin 31%, operating margin 48% — top-tier for a senior gold miner, lifted by the high gold price | 82 |
| Cash generation | FCF yield ~9.6%; record Q1 FCF; op-cash-flow/sales 51%. Cash conversion strong | 85 |
| Balance-sheet health | Net debt/EBITDA well under 1×, debt/equity 0.27, interest coverage ~26×, current ratio 2.7 | 88 |
| Revenue trajectory | Revenue +65% YoY (Q1 $3.24B vs $1.96B) — almost entirely gold-price-driven, not volume; score with cyclical caution | 60 |
| ROIC / capital allocation | ROE and ROA rated 5/5 by FMP; disciplined post-restructuring portfolio; rising, well-covered dividend (payout ~72% of earnings, covered by FCF) | 70 |
Moat average ≈ 49. This is structural and honest: a gold miner has no pricing power or switching-cost moat — its “quality” is asset quality, cost position and balance sheet, all of which are strong. Do not confuse a high Quality score with a durable competitive moat; the score rests on execution and asset base, not on defensibility against rivals.
Primary lens for a miner: P/NAV / EV/EBITDA at the base-case gold deck + FCF yield. P/E is shown only for context (cyclically distorted).
| Metric | AU | Read |
|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | 5.74× | vs ~8× warranted / guardrail — Attractive |
| FCF yield | ~9.6% | >8% — very attractive |
| P/E (TTM) | 11.9× | Low, but cyclical; clean P/E ≈ same (non-op is a small drag) |
| Dividend yield | ~5.6% | Well-covered by FCF (payout ~72% of earnings) |
| P/B | 4.85× | Elevated — the one rich-looking multiple (book understates in-ground value) |
Implied-growth read: at $81.91 on ~$6.88 TTM EPS (11.9×), the market embeds little-to-no real earnings growth — consistent with a base-case-flat gold deck. Our disciplined estimate (flat-to-modestly-higher gold, stable output) supports the current price without heroic assumptions; the price does not require gold to keep rising.
The driver is the gold price, full stop — a gold miner is a geared bet on the direction of the metal. The level is excellent; the trend is the near-term risk, and the two must be scored separately.
| Horizon | Driver read | Amplifies? |
|---|---|---|
| Short (0–4w) | Headwind — spot below a falling 50-DMA, negative momentum. Level (spot vs AISC) is strong, but the tape is down | No — short amplification OFF |
| Medium (1–6m) | Neutral / soft-Tailwind — macro Gold medium = N; a basing tape, not yet a reclaim | No amplification |
| Long (6–18m) | Tailwind — structural de-dollarisation + CB accumulation + fiscal-debasement bid; gold above its 200-DMA; macro Gold long = O | Yes — eligible to lift BUY→STRONG BUY |
Level score 85 (spot ~$4,143 vs AISC $1,955 = 53% margin) is the current-state level. The three-horizon overlay is what governs amplification: only the long horizon carries a clean Tailwind. Short is capped at Headwind (no STRONG BUY on the short leg into a falling metal, however cheap the equity); medium is neutral. Secondaries: real 10-Y up to 4.56% (a mild headwind for gold), USD firm short-term (headwind) but structurally out long-term — consistent with the per-horizon split.
Macro regime: Higher-for-Longer / Stagflation-lite (modest lead). Gold asset-class signal N/N/O (short Neutral, medium Neutral, long Outperform); Materials XLB N/O/SO. The de-dollarisation and fiscal-debasement drivers give gold a structural real-money bid (long Tailwind), but the near-term is a firm USD + elevated front-end rates (short/medium Neutral). Net economic PRESSURE = Neutral short/medium, Tailwind long — so the economy corroborates amplification only at the long horizon, matching the driver.
Source: sector-map (macro asset-class Gold + XLB) · Macro report 2026-07-09
The share tracks the gold tape, and both are in a pullback. AU at $81.91 is below its daily SMA50 ($90.2) and SMA200 ($90.5) — a strong daily downtrend — having fallen from the ~$129 spring high alongside gold's ~13% drop off its peak.
| Sub-signal | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| MTF confluence | Monthly uptrend intact; weekly + daily downtrend; hourly stabilising — confluence bearish | 38 |
| Risk-reward | Near $77–$78 weekly support (within ~5%) — a logical support zone improves R:R from here | 52 |
| Relative strength vs SPY / sector | Underperforming as gold corrected; XLB short-term N | 40 |
| Sentiment (grades) | All “maintain” over 30 days (Roth, Citi Buy); no downgrades — neutral-to-supportive | 55 |
| Catalyst clustering | Q2 earnings ~mid-Aug; CPI 14 Jul the only near dated macro — calm | 62 |
Read: monthly trend still up, but the intermediate trend has rolled over with the metal. This is a “buy-the-dip-in-an-uptrend” setup only once the tape steadies — price is basing near $77–$78 support (last ~3 weeks flat-to-up off gold's late-June low), but there is no confirmed reclaim of the 50-day. Timing stays weak; the reachable early entry is a tested bounce off support, not chasing.
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | CPI / Inflation Rate (Jun) | High | Core MoM +0.3%, YoY 3.9% | Prev +0.5%/4.2% | ⚠️ Medium | Real-rate path for gold; a hot core = headwind, a soft print = tailwind |
| 2026-07-29 | FOMC Rate Decision | High | Hold 3.75% | 3.75% | ✅ Yes | Gold is real-rate-sensitive; a hawkish hold pressures the metal short-term |
| 2026-07-30 | Core PCE / Q2 GDP | High | PCE +0.3%; GDP +1.1% | PCE +0.3%; GDP +2.1% | ✅ Yes | Stagflation test — sticky inflation + slowing growth is the gold-supportive combination medium-term |
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | ISM Services PMI (Jun) | 54.0 | 54.0 | in-line | Neutral — no rate-path shift |
| 2026-07-06 | ISM Services Prices (Jun) | 67.7 | 67.5 | +0.3% | Sticky services inflation — keeps real rates firm (mild gold headwind) |
The near calendar is macro, not company-specific. CPI (14 Jul) and the 28–30 Jul FOMC/PCE cluster set the real-rate path that drives gold. Because Materials is a high-macro-sensitivity sector and CPI is 2 trading days out — inside the 3-trading-day WAIT-override window — this report reschedules for CPI + 1 trading day (2026-07-15). Watch CPI: a soft core would relieve the gold tape; a hot core extends the pullback.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend ↑ | Bullish | 58 | +, rising | S: $22.5 R: $129 | Resist. breakout | 0.2× |
| Weekly | Downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 45 | −, falling | S: $77.1 R: $97.2 | None | 0.6× |
| Daily | Strong downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 44 | −, hist. turning up | S: $77.1/$78.5 R: $94.8 | Support breakdown | 0.5× |
| Hourly | Recovering → | Neutral | 51 | +, small | S: $79.0 R: $85.4 | Resist. breakout | — |
| 15-min | Downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 44 | −, flat | S: $79.1 R: $82.8 | None | — |
| Confluence: Bearish (monthly up, intermediate down) · MTF Score 44 | |||||||
The secular monthly trend is still up, but the weekly and daily trends have rolled over with gold — price is below both the 50-day ($90.2) and 200-day ($90.5). The daily MACD histogram is beginning to turn up near $77–$78 weekly support, an early sign of basing, but there is no confirmed reclaim of the 50-day. Key level: $77–$78 support (a break below is the stop zone); reclaiming the 50-day near $90 would flip the intermediate trend.
AU pulled back from ~$129 with gold; now below its 50/200-day, basing near $77–$78 support. Illustrative recent closes vs falling 50-day.
Gold reclaims its uptrend and pushes to new highs (soft CPI / dovish Fed pivot / renewed CB and safe-haven buying). At AU's ~$1,955 AISC the incremental gold drops almost straight to FCF; the equity re-rates toward the ~0.9–1.0× P/NAV of quality peers and toward the $111–$119 analyst target zone, with the ~5.6% dividend and Obuasi growth as kickers. Requires the metal's trend to turn, which it has not yet.
Gold holds a high but choppy range around $4,000–$4,300 (base-case deck). AU's wide AISC margin, ~9.6% FCF yield and covered ~5.6% dividend do the work; the stock grinds back toward its median analyst target ($111) and consensus ($119) as the intermediate downtrend resolves. This is the most probable path: a cheap, cash-generative senior producer at a flat-to-firm gold price.
THE LIVE NEAR-TERM RISK. Gold's ~13% pullback extends — a hot CPI + hawkish FOMC push real rates higher and the USD firmer, gold breaks toward $3,600–$3,800, and the geared equity falls with it through $77–$78 support toward the low-$60s (back to its winter range). Margins stay positive (AISC well below even $3,600 gold), so this is a valuation/de-rating drawdown, not an existential one — but it is the dial flashing now, not a distant tail. Falsified if gold reclaims its 50-DMA and AU reclaims $90.
Forecast: Fundamental group is MET now — a value-based starter is available at $81.91. The Technical group is the gate to sizing up: a tested bounce off $77–$78 (plausible within 1–3 weeks if gold's basing holds — Moderate confidence) fires the pullback branch; a full 50-day reclaim near $90 is ~10% away and needs gold to turn first (Low-Moderate, catalyst-dependent on CPI/FOMC). Catalyst group is event-dependent on Q2 earnings (~mid-Aug). Conviction reads Half-Size today (1 of 3), scaling to Full-Size on a confirmed support bounce.
Forecast: Stop at $77 is ~6% below current price and is the live risk if gold's pullback extends (a hot CPI on 14 Jul is the near trigger). Thesis-invalidation is far off — gold would have to fall ~28% to ~$3,000 to threaten the AISC margin — so the bear case is a de-rating, not a broken thesis. Profit-target is a multi-quarter prospect requiring the gold trend to turn.
Position sizing not computed — no risk budget or portfolio role was specified for this refresh. The §12 Conviction Ladder reads Half-Size (1 of 3 entry paths met): a value starter is open, but the intermediate downtrend argues for scaling in on a confirmed support bounce rather than a full position. Specify an allocation and role for a portfolio-percentage figure.
{
"ticker": "AU",
"exchange_ticker": "NYSE:AU",
"isin": "GB00BRXH2664",
"api_ticker": "AU",
"date": "2026-07-10",
"version": "v6",
"analysis_status": "on-going",
"finder_ticker": "AU",
"finder_exchange": "\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 NYSE",
"user_horizon": null,
"user_allocation_pct": null,
"portfolio_role": null,
"company": "AngloGold Ashanti plc",
"currency": "USD",
"price_at_rating": 81.91,
"signal_short": "HOLD",
"signal_medium": "BUY",
"signal_long": "STRONG_BUY",
"primary_signal": "BUY",
"quality_score": 73,
"lifecycle_stage": "mature",
"quality_detail": {
"industry_benchmark_name": "AISC Margin (Mining)",
"industry_benchmark_value": "53% of spot ($4,143/oz, AISC $1,955/oz)",
"industry_benchmark_score": 92,
"moat_score": 49,
"roic_percentile_vs_peers": 65,
"capital_allocation": 70,
"management_skin_in_game": 55
},
"valuation_score": 74,
"valuation_detail": {
"fcf_yield": 9.6,
"implied_growth_rate": 1.0,
"consensus_growth_rate": 15.0,
"historical_valuation_decile": 3
},
"warranted_multiple": 8.0,
"actual_multiple": 5.74,
"val_multiple_basis": "EV/EBITDA (TTM), miner P/NAV proxy",
"discount_rate_r": 9.06,
"risk_free_10y": 4.56,
"g_near": 6.0,
"g_term": 3.0,
"warranted_ratio": 0.72,
"val_band": "attractive",
"timing_score": 46,
"timing_detail": {
"mtf_confluence": 44,
"risk_reward_score": 52,
"relative_strength_vs_spy": -9.0,
"relative_strength_vs_sector": -4.0,
"catalyst_clustering_score": 62,
"dynamic_macro_weight": 0.2
},
"driver_score": 85,
"driver_label": "Level-strong, trend-weak",
"driver_commodity_trend": "gold \u221213% off May peak (GLD $434.65\u2192$378.18); spot ~6% below a falling 50-DMA (~$402); negative 4-8wk momentum but basing last 3 weeks off the Jun-23 low; above 200-DMA (structural uptrend intact long-term)",
"driver_horizon_read": {
"short": "Headwind",
"medium": "Neutral/soft-Tailwind",
"long": "Tailwind",
"amplifies": "long-only",
"note": "85 is the current-state LEVEL score (spot vs AISC); the per-horizon trend overlay caps Short at Headwind (short amplification OFF) and leaves Medium neutral while gold trends down; only Long carries a clean Tailwind"
},
"overall_confidence": 55,
"economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 70,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Neutral",
"economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
"macro_report_date": "2026-07-09",
"nonop_pct_of_net_income": -10.5,
"clean_pe": 11.9,
"clean_peg": 0.79,
"competitive_share_trajectory": "stable",
"competitive_threat_level": "low",
"fair_value_est": 113.0,
"stop_loss": 77.0,
"target_price": 120.0,
"scenario_base_target": 120,
"scenario_bull_target": 150,
"scenario_bear_target": 62,
"analyst_consensus_target": 119.4,
"analyst_target_high": 200,
"analyst_target_low": 42,
"analyst_target_median": 111,
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 45.8,
"analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
"analyst_bullish_pct": 64,
"analyst_coverage_count": 14,
"fmp_rating": "A-",
"fmp_overall_score": 4,
"recent_upgrades_30d": 0,
"recent_downgrades_30d": 0,
"entry_groups_met": 1,
"entry_conviction": "Half-Size",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"hard_gate_state": "clear",
"gates_triggered": [],
"gates_caution": [],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"next_update_date": "2026-07-15",
"next_update_basis": "CPI (Jun) 2026-07-14 +1 trading day \u2014 Materials is high-macro-sensitivity and CPI is 2 trading days out (inside the 3-trading-day WAIT-override window); directly moves the real-rate/gold driver (earlier than the +14d ceiling)",
"next_check_date": "2026-07-15"
}
Signals unchanged vs the 3 Jul report (HOLD / BUY / STRONG BUY). Gold is ~flat week-on-week ($4,180→$4,143) and still ~13% below its May peak under a falling 50-DMA — the short-driver Headwind and the timing weakness persist. The stock is ~3% cheaper ($84.65→$81.91), marginally improving valuation, while the 10-Y ticked up to 4.56%. No gate or trigger changed.