AngloGold Ashanti is one of the world's largest gold producers, mining roughly 2.9 million ounces a year from a geographically spread portfolio across Africa (Geita in Tanzania, Iduapriem in Ghana, Kibali in the DRC), the Americas (Brazil, Argentina, the Nevada Beatty district) and Australia (Sunrise Dam, Tropicana). Its core business is simple: extract ore, pour gold doré, and sell it into the spot market at the prevailing price. What distinguishes it is the November-2024 acquisition of Centamin, which added the Tier-1 Sukari mine in Egypt (~500koz/yr) and lifted the company into the large-cap tier alongside Newmont, Barrick and Agnico Eagle. AngloGold re-domiciled to the UK and moved its primary listing to the NYSE in 2023. As a price-taker on gold, its earnings, cash flow and dividend swing directly with the metal price and with its cost position (all-in sustaining cost).
Lifecycle / sector: Mature large-cap gold producer (Materials / Mining). Scored on the mining metric profile — AISC margin, FCF yield and P/NAV, NOT reported net income (which carries write-down and hedge noise). Reported revenue growth is high but almost entirely gold-price-driven, so it is read through the cost/margin lens, not as organic growth.
| Sub-signal | Value | Read | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| AISC margin (benchmark) | Gold $4,180 − AISC $1,955 = $2,225/oz (53% of spot) | Top band (>40% of spot) — highly profitable even after the +19% YoY cost rise | 92 |
| FCF generation | ~$1.2B Q1 FCF; TTM FCF ~$4.0B; FCF/share $7.93 | Strong cash conversion (FCF/OCF 0.70) | 85 |
| Profitability / ROE | Net margin 31%, EBITDA margin 63%, ROE ~33% | Elite for the sector; FMP ROE/ROA sub-scores both 5/5 | 88 |
| Balance sheet | D/E 0.27, current ratio 2.71, interest cover 26x, ~net cash | Fortress — survives deep into any price cycle | 90 |
| Cost trajectory | Group AISC +19% YoY to $1,955/oz | The one crack — royalty + planned +29% sustaining capex; margin still huge but the cushion is thinning as costs rise | 55 |
None — pure price-taker on gold. 35
N/A for a miner — neutral. 50
N/A (fungible commodity) — neutral. 50
Mid-tier: AISC $1,955 sits above low-cost Agnico (~$1,350) but below higher-cost peers. 50
Tier-1 orebodies (Geita, Kibali, Sukari, Tropicana) + diversification; hard to replace. 60
Moat score ≈ 49 — a commodity price-taker has no durable moat beyond asset quality and cost position; quality rests on scale, margin and balance sheet, not a wall.
| Rival | Threat type | Share / position trajectory | Moat-erosion vector |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont (NEM) | Larger senior producer | Stable — AU smaller but higher-margin at the asset level | Scale / index weight, not a cost threat |
| Barrick (B/ABX) | Direct senior peer | Stable | Comparable jurisdiction mix (Africa) |
| Agnico Eagle (AEM) | Low-cost leader | AU losing on cost — AEM AISC well below AU's $1,955 | Cost-advantage gap; AEM commands a valuation premium AU does not |
| Kinross (KGC) | Mid-senior peer | Stable | None material |
Net effect on moat: Cost Advantage held at 50 (not higher) because AU is mid-curve, not low-cost — the +19% AISC move widens the gap to Agnico. Competitive threat: low (no share dynamic; the pressure is relative cost, already reflected in a discounted multiple).
ROIC & capital allocation: Sukari/Centamin integration is proving accretive (Tier-1, 500koz/yr, synergies captured); disciplined dividend (payout ~72%, yield 5.4%); ROIC comfortably above cost of capital at current gold. Capital-allocation score ~70; management skin-in-game ~55.
| Multiple | AU | Reference | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | 12.3x | Senior gold peers ~13–20x | Below peer midpoint |
| FCF yield (FCF/EV) | ~9.6% | >8% = very attractive | Top band |
| P/FCF | 10.7x | — | Cheap for the cash it throws |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.9x | Miner mid-cycle ~6–8x | Undemanding |
| P/B | 5.0x | FMP P/B sub-score 1/5 | Optically rich — but book understates reserve value; P/NAV is the right lens |
| Dividend yield | 5.4% | — | Well-covered (payout 72% of earnings) |
Reverse-DCF / implied growth: at $84.65 and ~$4.0B FCF, the market is pricing in low-single-digit forward growth (~3%), while consensus expects 2026 EPS ~$9.92 vs TTM ~$6.88 (+40%+, gold-price-lifted). The market is discounting the current gold price and pricing almost no re-rating — a structurally attractive gap. Near-term caveat: the valuation-gap thesis is weaker in the short run than it reads — the metal itself has ALSO fallen (~10% off its May peak), so the discount partly reflects a falling gold price, not just an equity that "merely lagged a still-strong metal." At a spot that is high but falling, the modelled-vs-spot cushion is shrinking, not just unbanked.
Analyst price targets: consensus $145.8, median $134, high $243, low $42 — price is ~58% below median / ~72% below consensus (top scoring band). Caveat: wide spread (243 vs 42) and thin recent coverage (4 targets last quarter) → confidence haircut. Grades: 9 Buy / 3 Hold / 2 Sell → Buy consensus (64% bullish). FMP rating A- (4/5): DCF/ROE/ROA all 5/5; P/E, P/B, D/E dragged by cyclical optics.
AngloGold is a pure gold price-taker — the gold spot price is the dominant driver of revenue, FCF, the dividend and the equity. Secondary: real interest rates (inverse), USD strength (inverse), central-bank buying.
| Horizon | Trend read (spot vs 50/200-DMA, slope, momentum) | Driver | Amplify? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Short (0–3m) | Live downtrend — GLD −10% off the May peak, below a falling 50-DMA, negative 6–8wk momentum | Headwind | No — capped |
| Medium (6–12m) | Choppy tape over a structural bull — Fed-cut path (weak June jobs +57k) + central-bank buying intact, but the price action is soft/sideways | Neutral / soft-Tailwind | No — amplification removed while the trend is down |
| Long (3–5yr) | Structural bull strongest here — debasement / de-dollarisation bid, sustained CB buying (CFTC net-long 181k); secular uptrend from sub-$2,700 two years ago | Tailwind | Yes — Long only |
Driver 85 kept as the level score, but re-labelled "Level-strong, trend-weak." The level (spot vs AISC $1,955 = a still-wide ~53% margin) is genuinely strong; the trend is not. Per-horizon: Short = Headwind (don't buy a producer into a falling metal), Medium = Neutral/soft-Tailwind (structural bull intact but the tape is choppy — no STRONG-BUY amplification), Long = Tailwind (amplifies to STRONG BUY). It does NOT change the three fundamental pillar scores. Thesis-invalidation floor: gold sustained below ~$3,000/oz would compress margins hard against the rising cost base and break the case — and with the metal already ~10% off its high, that bear is now a live near-term dial, not a distant tail (see §11).
AU is not a named watchlist ticker, so mapped via GICS sector: Gold asset class = SO/SO/SO and Materials (XLB) = SO/SO/SO in the latest MacroDriver report (regime: Soft Landing lead / disinflationary slowdown; weak June jobs revive the Fed-cut path). Both read as a Tailwind on the economy. Going long rides the economic trend (Trend-Following), conviction 80. Note the new commodity price-TREND overlay (§5): amplification requires BOTH a Tailwind economy AND a driver that is trending up. With gold in a live downtrend, the driver now only amplifies at the Long horizon — so the Tailwind economy lifts Long to STRONG BUY only. The Medium STRONG-BUY amplification is removed (Medium → BUY) and the Short signal is capped at HOLD (daily-weak + short-term gold Headwind). This diverges near-term from peers AEM.TO / NEM whose reports have not yet applied the trend overlay.
Source: sector-map · Macro report 2026-07-03
Risk-reward: price $84.65 is ~9% above weekly support ($77–78) and ~8% below the 50-DMA ($91.5). A stop below $77 is ~1.7 ATR (daily ATR $4.6) — moderate. The setup is a pullback within a higher-timeframe uptrend rather than a clean reclaim.
Relative strength: AU corrected hard from the Feb high ($128) into the June sell-off ($78 low). Importantly, this is NOT purely an equity-specific lag against a "still-strong metal" — gold itself also fell ~10% off its May peak over the same window (GLD ~$418 → $366 → ~$378), so AU's daily downtrend and sub-50-DMA price are partly gold-driven, not only cost/equity-specific. It now sits mid-range (~47% of 52-wk range) and bounced last session (+4.6%), but that bounce is against a still-falling metal.
Macro overlay (weight 0.20, Materials = high sensitivity): mixed — the structural rate backdrop is dovish, but gold's own price action is a near-term Headwind (§5). Sentiment: all recent analyst actions are 'maintain' (Roth, Citi, Scotia, JPM) — stable, no upgrades/downgrades in 30 days. Catalyst layer: calm — no earnings in the window; ISM Services (Jul 6) is the only high-impact macro nearby. Catalyst clustering ~65.
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | ISM Services PMI (Jun) | High | 54.2 | 54.5 | ⚠️ Yes | Materials high-sensitivity; feeds the Fed-cut path that drives gold |
| 2026-07-06 | ISM Non-Mfg Prices (Jun) | High | — | 71.3 | ⚠️ Medium | Services inflation read → rate path → gold |
| 2026-07-07 | Balance of Trade (May) | Medium | -78.8B | -55.9B | No | Low direct gold relevance |
| 2026-07-08 | FOMC Minutes (Jun) | Medium | — | — | ⚠️ Yes | Dovish tilt would extend the gold tailwind |
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | Non-Farm Payrolls (Jun) | 57K | 110K | -48% (below) | Gold-positive — weak jobs revived the Fed-cut path (the week's regime pivot) |
| 2026-07-02 | Unemployment Rate (Jun) | 4.2% | 4.3% | below | Mixed (household-survey noise); payrolls signal governs |
The dominant recent event — a big June payrolls miss (+57k vs +110k) — is directly gold-supportive: it repriced the Fed toward cuts and flipped the macro regime to a Soft-Landing lead. The nearest forward event, ISM Services on Jul 6, is high-impact for a high-sensitivity Materials name and is the scheduling trigger for the next update (Jul 7).
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend ↑ | Bullish | 59 | +, rising | S: 78 / R: 129 | None | — |
| Weekly | Uptrend ↑ | Neutral | 47 | −, hist fading | S: 77-78 / R: 97-113 | None | 0.9x |
| Daily | Downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 47 | −, hist turning up | S: 77-78 / R: 91-97 | None | 0.8x |
| Hourly | Uptrend ↑ | Bullish | 62 | +, rising | S: 79-80 / R: 85 | None | — |
| 15-min | Strong Up ↑ | Bullish | 60 | +, rising | S: 81 / R: 85 | None | — |
| Confluence: Mostly Bullish — higher timeframes up, daily in a pullback · MTF Score 62 | |||||||
Monthly and weekly structure remain uptrends; the daily has pulled back below both the 50- and 200-DMA (91.5 / 90.2) but the histogram has just turned up and intraday timeframes are bullish — a textbook 'buy-the-dip in a higher-timeframe uptrend' pattern, provided $77-78 weekly support holds. A daily close back above the 50-DMA ($91.5) would confirm the reclaim; failure of $77 negates it.
NYSE:AU — 6-month daily close with 50-day SMA. Feb blow-off to $128, June flush to $78, now recovering.
Gold pushes to $4,600+ on accelerating cuts + central-bank buying; AU closes the P/NAV discount as Sukari synergies and Nevada growth land. Re-rate toward the analyst median/consensus. Prob ~30%.
Gold holds ~$4,000-4,200; AU partially closes the discount to targets as the June equity sell-off unwinds and margins stay wide. ~+42% from $84.65. Prob ~45%.
Gold slides toward $3,200 while the +19% YoY AISC creep continues — margin compresses off a rising cost base (the reason AU de-rated $128→$78 despite record gold). Equity re-tests/loses the $77 support. This is no longer a distant tail: gold is ALREADY ~10% off its May peak and below a falling 50-DMA — heading in this direction right now. The gold-price dial that triggers this scenario is flashing today, which is exactly why the Short signal is capped at HOLD and entry reads Wait. Prob ~25%.
Forecast: No entry group is open — the Fundamental group's cheap-valuation leg holds but its live-gold-tailwind leg fails while gold trends down, so entry reads Wait. The path back to an open Fundamental entry runs through gold stabilising (spot reclaiming its 50-DMA / momentum turning up); the Technical group needs a confirmed higher-low off $77-78 or a 50-DMA reclaim (~$91.5, ~2-4 weeks at best and gold-dependent); Catalyst is event-dependent (H1 results early August). CONFIDENCE: Moderate — the valuation case is intact, but you are waiting for the metal's trend, not just the equity's, to turn.
Forecast: Stop unlikely in the next 4-6 weeks unless gold breaks down — $77 is ~9% below spot and above the June flush low. Profit-target ($134) is a bull-case, multi-quarter event. Key risk date: H1 results (early Aug) for any AISC guidance revision.
What you're risking: the daily downtrend isn't broken, so you may buy just before another dip toward $77-78; the Technical entry group is not yet met; and the bear case ($66) is a real ~25% path if gold stalls into rising AISC. What you're gaining: an immediate ~9.6% FCF yield + 5.4% dividend while you wait, a deep discount to analyst targets, and a ~4:1 reward-to-risk on the base case over a multi-year view. Read: with gold in a live downtrend the entry ladder reads Wait — don't add into a falling metal; let gold stabilise (a spot 50-DMA reclaim, or an AU higher-low off $77-78) before starting. The long-term structural case is intact; this is a timing call, not a quality call.
What you're giving up: the re-rating toward $120-134, the 5.4% yield, and the free gold optionality — you'd be selling ~37% below the probability-weighted centre of gravity ($116). What you're protecting: capital if gold rolls over into the AISC creep. But no exit rule is live right now — no stop hit, no thesis break, no profit-target. Read: this is a hold / wait zone, not a sell — hold what you own, but don't add into the gold downtrend (entry reads Wait).
Position sizing not computed — no risk budget or portfolio role was specified for this promotion run. Framework note: the §12 Conviction Ladder reads Wait (0 of 3 entry groups met — the Fundamental path's live-gold-tailwind leg fails while gold trends down), i.e. no new-money entry edge right now rather than a starter; hold existing exposure, with the $77 stop (~1.7 ATR) defining risk per share. Beta 0.64 — lower volatility than the market.
{
"ticker": "AU",
"exchange_ticker": "NYSE:AU",
"isin": "GB00BRXH2664",
"api_ticker": "AU",
"date": "2026-07-03",
"version": "v6",
"analysis_status": "starting",
"finder_ticker": "AU",
"finder_exchange": "\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 NYSE",
"user_horizon": null,
"user_allocation_pct": null,
"portfolio_role": null,
"price_at_rating": 84.65,
"signal_short": "HOLD",
"signal_medium": "BUY",
"signal_long": "STRONG_BUY",
"primary_signal": "BUY",
"quality_score": 73,
"lifecycle_stage": "mature",
"quality_detail": {
"industry_benchmark_name": "AISC Margin (Mining)",
"industry_benchmark_value": "53% of spot ($2,225/oz)",
"industry_benchmark_score": 92,
"moat_score": 49,
"roic_percentile_vs_peers": 65,
"capital_allocation": 70,
"management_skin_in_game": 55
},
"valuation_score": 74,
"valuation_detail": {
"fcf_yield": 9.6,
"implied_growth_rate": 3.0,
"consensus_growth_rate": 20.0,
"historical_valuation_decile": 3
},
"timing_score": 55,
"timing_detail": {
"mtf_confluence": 62,
"risk_reward_score": 52,
"relative_strength_vs_spy": -8.0,
"relative_strength_vs_sector": -3.0,
"catalyst_clustering_score": 65,
"dynamic_macro_weight": 0.2
},
"driver_score": 85,
"driver_label": "Level-strong, trend-weak",
"driver_commodity_trend": "gold −10% off May peak; below falling 50-DMA; short-term downtrend",
"driver_horizon_read": {
"short": "Headwind",
"medium": "Neutral/soft-Tailwind",
"long": "Tailwind",
"amplifies": "long-only",
"note": "85 is the level score; trend overlay caps Short at Headwind and removes Medium amplification while gold trends down"
},
"overall_confidence": 60,
"economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 80,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Tailwind",
"economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
"macro_report_date": "2026-07-03",
"nonop_pct_of_net_income": -10.5,
"clean_pe": 10.7,
"clean_peg": 0.5,
"competitive_share_trajectory": "stable",
"competitive_threat_level": "low",
"fair_value_est": 120.0,
"stop_loss": 77.0,
"target_price": 120.0,
"scenario_base_target": 120,
"scenario_bull_target": 150,
"analyst_consensus_target": 145.8,
"analyst_target_high": 243,
"analyst_target_low": 42,
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 72.2,
"analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
"analyst_bullish_pct": 64,
"analyst_coverage_count": 14,
"fmp_rating": "A-",
"fmp_overall_score": 4,
"recent_upgrades_30d": 0,
"recent_downgrades_30d": 0,
"entry_groups_met": 0,
"entry_conviction": "Wait",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"hard_gate_state": "clear",
"gates_triggered": [],
"gates_caution": [],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"next_update_date": "2026-07-07",
"next_update_basis": "ISM Services 2026-07-06 +1 trading day (Materials high-sensitivity, high-impact macro inside 3-day window)",
"next_check_date": "2026-07-07"
}