NASDAQ:ATRO Signal v6

DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Horizon	Signal	Primary Score	Confidence	Key Driver
Short-term (1–3mo)	HOLD	57	61%	Strong uptrend but overbought near the 52-wk high — chasing, not a clean entry
Medium-term (6–12mo)	HOLD	54	55%	Good business, fair-to-rich price; accumulate on a pullback toward fair value
Long-term (3–5yr)	HOLD	55	60%	Quality + commercial-aero/defense tailwind, but valuation caps the entry here

Next update: 2026-07-02 — default +14d (next earnings ~early Aug 2026, beyond the 14-day window). No primary horizon highlighted (none requested).

Table of Contents

1Five-Pillar Scorecard 2Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status 3Pillar Detail: Business Quality 4Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness 5Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers 6Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment 7Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing 8Economic Event Risk 9Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis 10Price Chart (6-Month Daily)11Scenario Summary 12Entry / Exit Rules 13Position Sizing Context 14Calibration Snapshot 15Data Sources & Methodology

Five-Pillar Scorecard

Five independent scores, each 0–100 with its own confidence. The base BUY/HOLD/SELL comes from the three fundamental pillars (Quality / Valuation / Timing) via the Decision Matrix; the two context pillars (Underlying Drivers, Economic Alignment) can amplify a BUY to STRONG BUY or a SELL to STRONG SELL — never a HOLD. Here the base is HOLD, so no amplification fires.

Business Quality

Improving A&D operator; thin FCF

Confidence 72%

Valuation Attractiveness

Fair-to-rich; 0.8% FCF yield, near highs

Confidence 60%

Entry/Exit Timing

Strong uptrend but overbought/extended

Confidence 68%

Underlying Drivers

Commercial-aero + defense tailwind

Confidence 65%

Economic Alignment

Trend-Following · Tailwind

Confidence 70%

Read: Quality Medium (60) + Valuation Fair (42) + Timing Improving (62) maps to HOLD on the Decision Matrix (Medium quality + Fair valuation → Hold). The Underlying Driver (77, Tailwind) and Economic Alignment (Tailwind) would amplify a BUY to STRONG BUY, but they cannot lift a HOLD — so the signal stays HOLD across all three horizons. Overall confidence 60% (weakest link: Valuation).

Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status

Binary safety checks applied after scoring. A triggered hard gate caps or blocks the signal regardless of how strong the scores are; caution gates are position-sizing notes. None here cap the signal — two caution flags (valuation near highs, mild Class-B/convert dilution) are notes only.

✅

Financial Distress
Clear — current ratio 2.97, interest coverage 7.9×, net debt/EBITDA ~2.3× on forward EBITDA (the 4.7× on trailing EBITDA is distorted by a Q3-25 one-off charge).

✅

Earnings Event (≤14d)
Clear — next earnings ~early Aug 2026, well outside 14 days.

⚠️

Valuation Ceiling
Caution — price $80 sits near the 52-wk high ($83.78) on rich forward multiples (P/E ~37×), but below the $107 high analyst target and EV/Rev only ~3.6×, so the hard ceiling is NOT triggered.

⚠️

Dilution / Accounting
Caution — 20% Class-B stock distribution + $442M shelf (mostly ESOP) and convert-driven diluted share count; basic shares ~+8% YoY. Watch, not a hard gate.

✅

Regulatory / Binary Event
Clear — no pending binary regulatory/FDA event.

✅

Severe Driver Collapse
Clear — commercial-aero + defense driver is a tailwind (77), nowhere near the viability floor.

Do-Not-Buy triggers: none fired. The "valuation at historical extreme" trigger requires no growth acceleration — but forward EPS is accelerating (FY26 est $2.16, +45% YoY), so it does not apply. No leverage/rates, negative-revision, or insider-selling-spike trigger present.

Pillar Detail: Business Quality

Why Quality scored 60. Astronics is a two-segment aerospace & defense supplier (Aerospace ~90%: power, lighting, seating, avionics; plus Test Systems). Scored on the Industrials/A&D profile — operating margin, ROIC, backlog, balance sheet — at a Growth lifecycle stage (rev +12% YoY, margins inflecting).

Business Quality — Pillar Score

A good, improving niche A&D operator riding the commercial-aero recovery — but thin free cash flow and moderate leverage keep it out of the high-quality tier.

Confidence 72% · Medium quality

Sub-signal	Value	Benchmark / context	Score
Revenue trajectory	Q1-26 $230.6M, +12.0% YoY	FY26 est +15% ($988M); commercial-aero recovery + record industry backlog — strong for A&D	72
Profitability vs peers	Op margin 11.8% (Q1-26), 10.5% TTM; GM 32.6%	A&D peers ~12–18%; margin inflecting up off the trough — improving	62
Cash generation	FCF/sh $0.65 TTM; P/FCF ~116×	Weak — capex + working-capital intensive in the ramp; FCF the main quality knock	40
Balance sheet	Current 2.97; int-cov 7.9×; ND/EBITDA ~2.3× fwd	Adequate; D/E 2.34 looks high only because book equity is thin (high ROE)	58
ROIC & capital allocation	ROE ~28%; FMP ROE score 5/5, ROA 4/5	High returns on a thin equity base; founder-era CEO (Gundermann); converts dilute modestly; no dividend	58

Industry benchmark — ROIC vs WACC + backlog growth: ROIC is rising back above cost of capital as the aero cycle recovers and industry backlog is at record levels; net margin still thin (5%). Benchmark score: 70 — demand visibility is strong, the constraint is converting it to free cash. FMP financial-health rating B- (ROE 5/5, ROA 4/5, but D/E 1/5, P/E 1/5, P/B 1/5 — i.e. high-quality returns, expensive/leveraged on the multiples).

Competitive Moat Scorecard

Pricing Power

Some on spec-in content, but OEM cost pressure

Network Effects

N/A — not a network business

Switching Costs

Certified, designed-into airframes — sticky

Cost Advantage

Niche scale; no structural cost edge

Intangible Assets

Certifications, IP, long OEM relationships

Moat average ≈ 58 — a real but moderate moat: certification/design-in switching costs are the durable edge; no network effect or structural cost advantage.

Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness

Why Valuation scored 42 — right at the Attractive/Fair boundary, leaning rich. Scored against sector multiples, the stock's own (re-rated) history, growth-adjusted multiples, a reverse-DCF, the FCF-yield anchor, and the analyst consensus cross-check.

Valuation Attractiveness — Pillar Score

Fair, leaning expensive: strong forward EPS growth keeps the forward P/E reasonable, but a 0.8% FCF yield and a price near the 52-wk high after a ~4× run do the gating.

Confidence 60% · thin/stale analyst coverage

Lens	Value	Read
Forward P/E	~37× FY26 ($2.16), ~32× FY27 ($2.49)	Above A&D median (~20–25×); rich but not extreme given +45% FY26 EPS growth
EV/EBITDA	~19.6× fwd FY26 (40× trailing, distorted)	Above peers; trailing is inflated by the Q3-25 one-off
FCF yield (anchor)	~0.8% (P/FCF ~116×)	Very low — the single biggest valuation negative; FCF depressed by the growth ramp
Historical decile	Near top of its own range (stock ~4× off the low)	Multiple in the upper decile after the re-rating — expensive vs its own history
Growth-adjusted (PEG)	Fwd PEG <1 on FY26 EPS growth	The one attractive lens — strong forward growth offsets the high absolute multiple
Reverse DCF	Market implies sustained mid-teens growth + margin/FCF inflection	Demanding but not unreasonable given the aero upcycle; little margin of safety

Analyst consensus: consensus/median target $107 (+33.6% to $80.10) — but coverage is thin (0 targets in the last quarter; the broader Street range is ~$90–107 and the trailing-year average was ~$80.67, so treat the $107 as a single fresh, possibly stale, high mark — confidence reduced). Grades: Buy consensus (12 Buy / 1 Hold / 1 Sell; 86% bullish), TD Cowen maintained Buy (May 28), Truist upgraded Hold→Buy (Jul 2025) — no recent downgrades.

Embedded Optionality / Free Upside: (1) Test Systems / defense — the recent $44.7M U.S. Army TS-4549/T radio-test-set order and defense test demand are a smaller segment the market values lightly vs the aero story; (2) margin-expansion optionality — if aero op margins normalise toward peer 15%+, FCF re-rates materially (analyst fair value was just reset $61→$88 on exactly this); (3) continued commercial-aero upcycle — build-rate recovery has a multi-year runway. These are reasons to keep watching for a pullback entry, not a reason the stock is cheap today — the core is already fairly-to-richly priced (tilt +3, already reflected in the 42).

Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers

The dominant external forces: the commercial-aerospace build/retrofit cycle (primary) and the defense budget (secondary). A context pillar — it does not change the base signal, but a tailwind ≥65 makes a BUY eligible for STRONG BUY. Here it is a tailwind, but the base is HOLD, so it does not amplify.

Primary: Commercial-Aero Recovery · Secondary: Defense Budget

Tailwind — eligible to amplify a BUY (not active: base is HOLD)

Tailwind · conf 65%

Horizon	Assessment
Historical (25%)	Commercial-aero demand recovered through 2025–26; airline retrofit/cabin-tech and OEM build rates rebuilt off the post-COVID trough. Score ~70.
Current (50%)	Favourable — record industry backlog, build-rate ramp, MRO/retrofit demand strong, plus rising defense test orders (US Army). Astronics revenue +12% and margins inflecting. Score ~80.
Forward (25%)	Continued aero ramp + elevated defense spending (NATO rearmament) support the next 6–12 months; tariffs/pricing are the swing factor. Score ~78.

Thesis-invalidation floor: a stall in commercial build rates / airline capex pullback, or a margin disappointment that breaks the FCF-inflection story.

Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment

How the current economic climate sits relative to ATRO, from the MacroEconomic report dated 2026-06-17. A context pillar whose pressure (Tailwind/Neutral/Headwind) feeds amplification.

Stance: Trend-Following · Pressure: Tailwind

Source: sector map — Defense (XAR) O/O/SO and Industrials (XLI) O/O/SO · Macro report 2026-06-17

conviction · conf 70%

The current Soft-Landing regime favours cyclicals, and the macro report rates both of ATRO's sectors a strong tailwind: Defense (XAR) O/O/SO on the NATO 5%-of-GDP rearmament cycle, and Industrials (XLI) O/O/SO (the standout sector) on cyclical leadership + reshoring. Going long here is Trend-Following — riding an economic tailwind, not fighting one. Because the base signal is HOLD, this Tailwind does not amplify (HOLD never amplifies); had the fundamentals produced a BUY, the Tailwind + Driver would have lifted it to STRONG BUY.

Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing

Why Timing scored 62 — Improving, but a poor entry. Risk-reward anchored to the stop, relative strength, the macro overlay at Medium sector weight, sentiment, and the catalyst calendar.

Entry/Exit Timing — Pillar Score

A genuinely strong multi-timeframe uptrend (confluence "strongly bullish"), but overbought (monthly RSI 82, weekly 74) and pinned to the 52-wk high — momentum is great, the entry is poor.

Confidence 68% · Improving

Sub-signal	Read	Score
MTF trend (30%)	Monthly/weekly/daily/hourly uptrend; 15-min weakening — confluence "strongly bullish"	78
Risk-reward (20%)	Near resistance $83.24; nearest logical stop (~$59) is >4 ATR away → wide stop, poor R:R at this price	40
Relative strength	+171% 1yr, +49% YTD — strongly outperforming SPY and the defense/industrials ETFs	90
Macro overlay (15%)	VIX 16 (risk-on), Fed on hold, Defense/Industrials sectors in favour	70
Sentiment (18%)	Buy consensus, recent maintain/upgrade, no downgrades; near-52wk-high "new highs" coverage	75
Catalysts (17%)	No earnings within 14 days; calendar calm — next print ~early Aug	75

Sector macro-sensitivity = Medium (A&D Industrials) → macro 0.15 / sentiment 0.18 / catalyst 0.17. The weighted timing score is "Improving" (≥55), but the overbought, near-high entry is why the signal is HOLD rather than a chase-the-breakout BUY — the framework prefers a pullback toward $66–72.

Economic Event Risk

Macro releases that could swing an Industrials/A&D name over the next two weeks. ATRO is Medium macro-sensitivity — relevant but not rate-pinned like a bank or REIT.

Date	Event	Impact	Relevant?	Why
2026-06-25	US Core PCE (May)	High	⚠️ Medium	Rates path → growth-stock multiples; the macro report's key regime test
~2026-07-01	ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun)	High	✅ Yes	Industrials demand signal — direct read on the cyclical backdrop
recurring	Defense budget / NATO headlines	Medium	✅ Yes	Defense order flow (e.g. the recent US Army test-set order)

No high-impact, ATRO-specific macro release inside the 3-day window, so no WAIT-FOR-EVENT override. The 17 Jun FOMC (Warsh hold 3.75%) has passed; risk-on tone (VIX 16) is a mild tailwind. Aerospace demand is driven more by build rates and airline capex than by any single macro print.

Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis

Trend, RSI and breakout status across five timeframes with a confluence verdict. Read it to see the uptrend is intact on every higher timeframe but stretched.

Timeframe	Trend	RSI	MACD	Key S/R	Breakout	Vol
Monthly	Uptrend ↑	81.7	+, rising	R: —	Resistance breakout	0.7×
Weekly	Uptrend ↑	74.4	+, rising	S: $55 R: $70	Resistance breakout	0.8×
Daily	Strong uptrend ↑	64.5	+, rising	S: $66.5 R: $83.2	Resistance breakout	1.3×
Hourly	Strong uptrend ↑	50.5	+, flat	S: $79.9 R: $83.4	Resistance breakout	0.7×
15-min	Weakening →	43.9	−, falling	S: $79.0 R: $82.4	—	2.1×
Confluence	STRONGLY BULLISH · MTF trend score ≈ 78

Every higher timeframe is in an uptrend with the daily in a strong uptrend above a rising SMA50 ($66.5) and SMA200 ($53.2). The catch: monthly RSI 82 and weekly 74 are overbought, price is pinned to the 52-wk high ($83.78), and the 15-min has rolled over — classic late-stage extension. Highest-probability entry is a pullback into the $66–72 (SMA50/SMA20) support band, not a breakout chase at $80.

Price Chart (6-Month Daily)

A 6-month daily close line with SMA50 and key support/resistance — the visual companion to the MTF table: the steep recovery, the March dip to ~$53, and the June surge to the 52-wk high.

Scenario Summary

Bull / Base / Bear 12-month paths with triggers and probability weights, built from the analyst range, the forward estimates, and the technical levels.

Bull · 25%

$107

+34%. Aero ramp + margin expansion toward peer 15%+, FCF inflects, defense orders grow; multiple holds. Hits the Street high target.

Base · 50%

$88

+10%. Growth continues (FY26 EPS ~$2.16) but the rich multiple consolidates/digests after the ~4× run; sideways-to-modestly-higher.

Bear · 25%

$60

−25%. Aero cycle stalls or margins disappoint; the rich multiple compresses back toward the SMA200 ($53) / $58–62 support zone.

Probability-weighted ≈ $86 (~+7%). The skew is roughly symmetric from $80 — the upside needs the margin/FCF story to keep delivering, the downside is multiple compression from a rich, extended level. That balance is what produces HOLD.

Entry / Exit Rules

Mechanical conditions to act on. At $80 the fundamental and technical entry rules are NOT met (price is above fair value and extended); no exit rule is triggered.

Entry Rules — 0 of 3 met

1 · Fundamental (not met): BUY if price < ~$66 (fair value) AND no earnings within 7 days AND driver ≥50. Price $80.10 is ~21% above fair value.

2 · Technical (not met): BUY on a pullback — dip into $66–72 then a close back above the reclaimed SMA20 on volume >1.5× with RSI 35–65. Currently extended above the SMA20, not a dip-buy.

3 · Catalyst (not met): BUY if a post-earnings move is >+5% on raised guidance with volume >2×. No earnings imminent.

Exit Rules — 0 of 3 triggered

1 · Stop-loss (not triggered): SELL if price closes below $58.90 (below the daily support / SMA200 buffer) for 2 consecutive days.

2 · Thesis invalidation (not triggered): SELL if full-year guidance is cut AND revenue growth decelerates below the A&D median AND a hard gate trips.

3 · Profit-take (not triggered): Trim into $107 (analyst high) with RSI >70. Monthly RSI is >70 but price is not yet at target.

Imagine you act at the current price $80.10 · as of 18 June 2026

What if you bought now?

You'd be risking ~$21 / −26% to the hard stop to gain ~$8 / +10% (base) to ~$27 / +34% (bull).

Risking: downside to the $58.90 stop (−26%); bear case $60 (−25%); plus you're buying above the $66 fair value, into an overbought tape pinned to the 52-wk high — none of the entry rules are met.
Gaining: base $88 (+10%) · bull $107 (+34%); you own the defense/Test-Systems and margin-expansion optionality; no dividend (0% yield) while you wait.
Net: risk-reward ≈ 0.4–1.3 : 1 at this price — unfavourable for a fresh buy. Waiting for the $66–72 pullback materially improves the deal. (Assessment, not a buy verdict.)

What if you sold now?

You'd be giving up ~+10% base-case upside to protect against a ~25% bear-case drawdown.

Giving up: base-case upside to $88 (+10%) and the bull path to $107; the aero/defense optionality; you'd be selling above fair value ($66) though.
Protecting: capital if the bear case ($60) plays out from a rich, extended level. But no exit rule is currently triggered — not the stop, not thesis-invalidation, not the profit-take.
Net: no mechanical reason to sell; for a holder this is a hold/trim-into-strength zone, not an exit.

Position Sizing Context

Illustrative volatility/risk context only — no position size is computed because no risk budget or portfolio role was specified.

Position sizing not computed — specify your portfolio allocation and role for sizing guidance. Volatility context: beta ~1.15; daily ATR ~$4.55 (≈5.7% of price) — a high-volatility small/mid-cap; the stock has ranged from $21.76 to $83.78 over 52 weeks (a ~3.8× spread). Size any position for that swing and for the ~26% distance to the logical stop.

Calibration Snapshot

Machine-readable snapshot of every score, level and override driving this report — saved alongside the HTML so the next run computes deltas and the watchlist monitor triggers without parsing HTML.

{
  "ticker": "ATRO",
  "exchange": "NASDAQ",
  "exchange_ticker": "NASDAQ:ATRO",
  "isin": "US0464331083",
  "api_ticker": "ATRO",
  "date": "2026-06-18",
  "version": "v6",
  "company": "Astronics Corporation",
  "sector": "Aerospace & Defense",
  "lifecycle_stage": "growth",
  "price_at_rating": 80.1,
  "signal_short": "HOLD",
  "signal_medium": "HOLD",
  "signal_long": "HOLD",
  "primary_signal": "HOLD",
  "quality_score": 60,
  "valuation_score": 42,
  "timing_score": 62,
  "driver_score": 77,
  "moat_score": 58,
  "fcf_yield": 0.8,
  "implied_growth_rate": 15.0,
  "consensus_growth_rate": 15.0,
  "historical_valuation_decile": 9,
  "relative_strength_vs_spy": "+strong (1yr +171%)",
  "relative_strength_vs_sector": "+strong",
  "catalyst_clustering_score": 75,
  "economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
  "economic_alignment_conviction": 80,
  "economic_alignment_pressure": "Tailwind",
  "economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
  "macro_report_date": "2026-06-17",
  "overall_confidence": 60,
  "quality_confidence": 72,
  "valuation_confidence": 60,
  "timing_confidence": 68,
  "fair_value_est": 66.0,
  "stop_loss": 58.9,
  "target_price": 88.0,
  "analyst_consensus_target": 107,
  "analyst_target_high": 107,
  "analyst_target_low": 107,
  "analyst_target_upside_pct": 33.6,
  "analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
  "analyst_bullish_pct": 86,
  "analyst_coverage_count": 14,
  "fmp_rating": "B-",
  "fmp_overall_score": 3,
  "recent_upgrades_30d": 0,
  "recent_downgrades_30d": 0,
  "gates_triggered": [],
  "gates_caution": [
    "valuation near 52wk high",
    "Class-B/convert dilution"
  ],
  "do_not_buy_triggers": [],
  "hard_gate_state": "caution",
  "entry_criteria_total": 3,
  "entry_criteria_met": 0,
  "exit_criteria_total": 3,
  "exit_criteria_met": 0,
  "next_update_date": "2026-07-02",
  "next_update_basis": "default +14d (next earnings ~early Aug 2026, beyond window)",
  "analysis_status": "on-going",
  "user_horizon": null,
  "user_allocation_pct": null,
  "portfolio_role": null
}

First report on ATRO — no prior calibration to diff against, so no "Changes Since Last Report" block.

Data Sources & Methodology

Audit trail of every data source. Most endpoints returned cleanly; analyst price-target coverage is thin/stale and the earnings-calendar endpoint returned empty (handled via the known reporting cadence).

✓

get_company_profile, get_financial_ratios, get_income_statement (6q) — full fundamentals

✓

get_multi_timeframe_analysis, get_stock_prices (6mo) — 5-timeframe technicals + chart

✓

get_grades_consensus, get_stock_grades, get_ratings_snapshot, get_analyst_estimates — sentiment + forward EPS + FMP B-

⚠

get_price_target_consensus / summary — $107 consensus but 0 targets last quarter (thin/stale); Valuation confidence cut to 60%

⚠

get_earnings_calendar — returned empty; next earnings taken from the known ~early-Aug reporting cadence

✓

get_stock_news, MacroEconomic report 2026-06-17 — sentiment + Economic Alignment (sector map)

Impact: Valuation confidence reduced to 60% on thin/stale analyst targets; all other pillars at full data coverage. The Q3-2025 one-off charge distorts trailing TTM EBITDA/EPS — forward and adjusted figures used where it matters. Overall confidence 60% (weakest link: Valuation).

NASDAQ:ATRO Astronics Corporation

Five-Pillar Scorecard

Business Quality

Valuation Attractiveness

Entry/Exit Timing

Underlying Drivers

Economic Alignment

Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status

Pillar Detail: Business Quality

Competitive Moat Scorecard

Pricing Power

Network Effects

Switching Costs

Cost Advantage

Intangible Assets

Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness

Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers

Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment

Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing

Economic Event Risk

Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis

Price Chart (6-Month Daily)

Scenario Summary

Bull · 25%

Base · 50%

Bear · 25%

Entry / Exit Rules

Entry Rules — 0 of 3 met

Exit Rules — 0 of 3 triggered

What if you bought now?

What if you sold now?

Position Sizing Context

Calibration Snapshot

Data Sources & Methodology