Alimentation Couche-Tard is one of the world's largest convenience-store and road-fuel retailers, running roughly 17,000 stores across North America, Europe and Asia under the Circle K, Couche-Tard, Holiday and Ingo banners. It makes money two ways: high-margin in-store merchandise (tobacco, snacks, drinks, fresh food, services) and lower-margin motor fuel, where the profit is the retail-minus-wholesale spread rather than the price of oil itself. Its edge is scale and a disciplined serial-acquirer playbook — buying fragmented store networks and lifting their merchandise mix, fuel procurement and cost base. Think of it as a defensive cash-compounder: a low-drama collector of small daily transactions that has grown for decades by rolling up an industry that is still highly fragmented. It recently walked away from a ~US$47bn pursuit of 7-Eleven owner Seven & i, leaving it with a large balance sheet and dry powder for its next deals.
Lifecycle: Mature / cash-cow compounder. ATD is a profitable, cash-generative, ~US$3.1bn-net-income convenience-and-fuel retailer growing through a mix of low-single-digit organic same-store sales and serial M&A. We score it on the Consumer-Staples / retail lens — same-store sales, turns, ROE/ROIC and capital allocation — not growth-stock metrics.
| Sub-signal | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Same-store sales (organic) | Q4 FY26 consolidated SSS +2.2%; US +3.4% (best in 3 years), Europe/other +1.1%, Canada -0.9% (ex-tobacco +1.3%) | ["80","metric-good"] |
| Profitability vs peers | ROE ~20%, ROA ~7%; merchandise gross margin steady; adjusted EPS +58.7% YoY (off a soft prior-year base) | ["82","metric-good"] |
| Cash generation | FCF ~US$2.4bn TTM; strong conversion; funds both dividends (payout ~18%) and acquisitions | ["78","metric-good"] |
| Balance-sheet health | Net debt/EBITDA ≈ 0.8x, current ratio 1.12; investment-grade; large post-Seven&i dry powder | ["85","metric-good"] |
| Fuel volumes (watch) | US same-store fuel volume -2.1%, Europe/other -4.4% — secular structural decline; margin is offsetting for now | ["55","metric-warn"] |
Moat average ≈ 70. The durable advantage is scale/cost (fuel buying power, integration playbook), not lock-in.
| Rival | Position vs ATD | Share trend |
|---|---|---|
| 7-Eleven / Seven & i | Largest global c-store; now independent (SoftBank/PayPay); relatively under-optimised US ops | Stable |
| Casey's (CASY) | Food-forward, strong loyalty; premium multiple; gaining prepared-food share | Gaining (niche) |
| Murphy USA (MUSA) | Low-cost high-volume fuel near big-box; value fuel competitor | Stable |
| Wawa / Sheetz / QuikTrip (private) | Regional food/fuel leaders, strong brands | Gaining (regional) |
ROIC comfortably above cost of capital (ROE ~20%); a long, credited record of accretive, disciplined M&A — and, tellingly, the discipline to walk away from Seven & i rather than overpay. Buybacks and a low-payout, fast-growing dividend round out capital returns. Management skin-in-the-game is solid (founder-influenced multiple-voting structure). Capital-allocation score ~82; management alignment ~72.
Warranted-multiple anchor. With the 10-Y at 4.71% (macro state 2026-07-20), a high-quality name discounts at r = 4.71% + 4.5% ERP + 0.0% = 9.21%. Growth is disciplined: consensus ~10% haircut 25% and capped at the defensive/staples 6% bucket (g_near 6%, g_term 3%). The two-stage warranted P/E is ≈ 18.9×.
| Lens | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Anchor (40%) — actual ÷ warranted | Clean P/E 20.2× ÷ warranted 18.9× = 1.07× → Fair band (1.00–1.20) | ["60","metric-warn"] |
| Sector median (20%) | 20.2× vs c-store peers: cheaper than Casey's (~40×), richer than Murphy USA (~19× fwd) — mid-pack | ["55","metric-warn"] |
| Own-history decile (15%) | ~5th decile of its own 5-yr P/E range — mid-range, not stretched | ["55","metric-warn"] |
| PEG (10%) | Clean PEG ≈ 2.0 (20.2× / ~10% growth) — full for the growth | ["45","metric-warn"] |
| Analyst consensus (15%) | Price C$88.82 vs consensus C$101.7 (median 102.2) = +14.5% upside; 18 analysts, 14/19 bullish, Buy consensus | ["73","metric-good"] |
Reconciling the gap: our strict anchor fair value is ~C$83 (18.9× × clean EPS), below the C$88.82 price; the Street's C$102 base assumes fuel-margin durability and continued accretive M&A that our disciplined 6% growth cap deliberately excludes. So: fairly-to-slightly-richly valued on a conservative core, with credible optionality that the Street is paying up for.
ATD's fortunes ride two external forces: consumer spending power (in-store traffic and basket) and retail fuel margins (the retail-minus-wholesale spread). It is not a commodity producer — crucially, a falling wholesale crude price typically widens retail fuel margin (retailers lag passing lower costs through), the opposite of an E&P. So no commodity-price-trend (Step-2b) cap applies.
| Horizon | Read | Label |
|---|---|---|
| Historical (25%) | US retail fuel margins have structurally re-rated higher (~50c+/gal); consumer resilient over the last 12mo | Tailwind |
| Current (50%) | Fuel margins elevated (drove the Q4 beat) but fuel volumes falling (US -2.1%, EU -4.4%); the Iran/Hormuz oil spike is a consumer tax and can briefly squeeze retail margin on the way up | Neutral |
| Forward (25%) | Consensus expects margins to normalise modestly; merchandise comps ~+3%; M&A redeployment is the upside lever | Neutral/Tailwind |
Driver score 63 — Neutral. Below the 65 amplification threshold, so it does not lift any base BUY to STRONG BUY. The margin tailwind and the volume/consumer headwind roughly offset; honest read is "supportive but not a one-way wind."
Macro regime is Stagflation-lite (energy-supply-shock led; narrow lead, Stagflation 38% / Soft Landing 24%). ATD maps to Consumer Staples (XLP: short O, medium O, long N) with secondary Consumer Discretionary/fuel (XLY: short U, medium N). In a stagflation-lite tape the defensive staples rotation is IN (XLP capital flow 'in' short+medium), which is a Tailwind for a low-beta (0.73) convenience/fuel compounder short-to-medium; long fades to Neutral as XLP goes N. Trend-Following (aligned with the in-favour defensive rotation). Not an AI-cohort name — it does NOT inherit the armed S&P-concentration / AI-earnings-quality tail.
Source: sector-map · Macro report 2026-07-20
Higher timeframes bullish; near-term pullback. ATD gapped from ~C$82 to ~C$94 on the 23 June earnings beat, printed a 52-week high of C$95.15, and has since drifted back to ~C$88.8 over five weeks — a textbook "higher-TF uptrend + lower-TF pullback" (buy-the-dip) pattern. Price sits above a rising 50-DMA (C$85.2) and well above the 200-DMA (C$78.5); monthly and weekly trends are clean uptrends. The softness is intraday/daily momentum only (daily MACD histogram negative, RSI 49).
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| MTF confluence | Strongly bullish (monthly + weekly uptrend, daily strong-uptrend); only hourly is down — near-term digestion |
| Risk-reward | Mid-range: ~4% above the 50-DMA / C$85 support, ~7% below the C$95 high — no edge at support yet |
| Relative strength | Outperforming SPY and staples peers on 3-month (post-beat) — leadership intact |
| Sentiment / catalyst | Buy consensus, positive post-earnings tone; no earnings within 30 days — calm calendar (catalyst score ~70) |
Composition (medium macro-sensitivity: MTF 30% · R:R 20% · macro 15% · sentiment 18% · catalyst 17%) ≈ 60 — Improving, but not a fresh entry trigger: the tape is drifting down within the uptrend, so the near-term timing is "hold / buy the dip," not "chase."
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | FOMC Rate Decision (Warsh) | High | Hold 3.50-3.75% | Hold | ⚠️ Medium | Rate path shapes consumer credit / discretionary spend |
| 2026-07-30 | US Q2 GDP (Advance) | High | ~2.0% ann. | — | ⚠️ Medium | Consumer-health signal for traffic/basket |
| 2026-07-31 | US Core PCE (Jun) | Medium | +0.2% MoM | +0.2% | ⚠️ Medium | Inflation eats spending power |
| 2026-08-01 | Jobs Report (Jul) | High | NFP ~+90k | +90k | ⚠️ Medium | Employment underpins consumer demand |
| 2026-09 (approx) | ATD Q1 FY27 Earnings | High | — | — | ✅ Yes | Next company-specific catalyst (outside 14-day window) |
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | ATD Q4 FY26 Earnings | +11% pop | Beat | Positive | Fuel-margin beat + US SSS +3.4%; adj EPS US$0.73 (+58.7%) |
No high-impact company catalyst inside 14 days. The FOMC/GDP/PCE/jobs cluster (29 Jul–1 Aug) is macro-consumer colour — medium relevance for a low-beta staples name; none is a scheduling trigger. Next real event is Q1-FY27 earnings ~early September.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend ↑ | Bullish | 61 | +, rising | S 63.3 / R 87.3 | Res breakout | 0.77x |
| Weekly | Uptrend ↑ | Bullish | 60 | +, rising | S 72.0 / R 95.15 | Res breakout | 0.72x |
| Daily | Strong Up ↑ | Neutral | 49 | −, falling | S 85.2 (50D) / R 91.7 | (pullback) | 0.81x |
| Hourly | Downtrend ↓ | Bearish | 44 | −, hist + | S 88.0 / R 89.2 | Breakdown | 1.46x |
| 15-min | Recovering → | Neutral | 57 | +, hist + | S 88.0 / R 89.2 | Res breakout | 4.32x |
| Confluence: Mostly Bullish — higher-TF uptrend, near-term pullback · MTF Score 68 | |||||||
Monthly and weekly are clean uptrends and daily still holds above a rising 50-DMA; the weakness is confined to the hourly/daily momentum as the market digests the late-June earnings gap. This is a pullback within an uptrend, not a trend change. Watch C$85 (50-DMA / support) as the buy-the-dip zone and C$91 (20-DMA) as the reclaim trigger; C$95.15 is the 52-week high / resistance.
ATD.TO daily close (last 45 sessions) with 50-day SMA. The 23-Jun earnings gap to ~C$94 and the five-week digestion back to ~C$89, holding above the rising 50-DMA.
Fuel margins hold their structural step-up, US merchandise comps stay +3-4%, and ATD redeploys its post-Seven&i dry powder into an accretive acquisition. Multiple re-rates toward the low-20s on renewed growth visibility. ~+29%.
The Street case and most probable: fuel margins normalise modestly, merchandise comps mid-single-digit, mid-single-digit EPS growth, steady bolt-on M&A. Stock drifts to consensus ~C$102 (median target) over 12 months. ~+15%. Above our strict ~C$83 anchor because the Street pays for fuel-margin durability + M&A optionality our 6% growth cap excludes.
Idiosyncratic, NOT an index/AI-cohort de-rating (ATD isn't in that tail). Stagflation-lite bites the consumer, fuel volumes decline faster while margins mean-revert lower, and/or a large debt-funded acquisition disappoints. Multiple compresses to ~16-17× clean; price breaks C$85/C$81 support toward high-C$70s. ~-12%.
Forecast: Technical group is the reachable path: a reclaim of ~C$91 (20-DMA) on volume — ~1-3 weeks if the pullback resolves up (price C$88.8, drifting ~C$0.3/wk lower, so it needs the drift to stall first) — CONFIDENCE Moderate; OR a pullback into C$85 (rising 50-DMA) with a higher low — also plausible within 2-4 weeks, CONFIDENCE Moderate. Fundamental group is UNLIKELY near-term: it needs a deeper pullback below ~C$83 (~7% down), which would require a broad-market or consumer scare. Verdict: BUY signal (medium/long) but Wait on size — good business, no entry edge at C$89; let it come to C$85 or reclaim C$91.
Forecast: Stop (C$82) unlikely in the next 4-6 weeks — ~8% below price and below the rising 50-DMA; would need an earnings-quality scare or a broad consumer sell-off. Profit-trim (C$102) needs ~+15% and an overbought RSI — not near.
Position sizing not computed — no risk budget or portfolio role was specified. The §12 Conviction Ladder reads Wait (0 of 3 entry paths met): a good business with no entry edge at C$89. If you want sizing guidance, provide your intended allocation and role, and watch C$85 (dip) or a C$91 reclaim as the trigger to start scaling in.
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"company": "Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc.",
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"date": "2026-07-25",
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"lifecycle_stage": "cash cow / mature compounder",
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"industry_benchmark_value": "US comps +3.4%",
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"discount_rate_r": 0.0921,
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"catalyst_clustering_score": 70,
"dynamic_macro_weight": 0.15
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"driver_commodity_trend": "N/A \u2014 fuel RETAILER margin (not producer). Fuel margin elevated but volumes declining; a rising crude (Iran/Hormuz) is a mild near-term margin/consumer headwind. No Step-2b commodity cap.",
"short_entry_confirmed": false,
"short_cap_reason": "Short base signal is BUY but neither Technical nor Catalyst entry group is met (drifting daily tape, no volume reclaim, no live event) \u2014 capped to HOLD; buy on a reclaim of ~C$91 or a pullback to ~C$85.",
"economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 58,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Tailwind",
"economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
"macro_report_date": "2026-07-20",
"overall_confidence": 62,
"nonop_pct_of_net_income": 6.2,
"clean_pe": 20.2,
"clean_peg": 2.0,
"competitive_share_trajectory": "stable",
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"target_price": 102.0,
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"analyst_target_high": 108.19,
"analyst_target_low": 89.33,
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 14.5,
"analyst_grades_consensus": "buy",
"analyst_bullish_pct": 74,
"analyst_coverage_count": 18,
"fmp_rating": "A-",
"fmp_overall_score": 4,
"recent_upgrades_30d": null,
"recent_downgrades_30d": null,
"scenario_base_target": 102,
"scenario_bull_target": 115,
"scenario_bear_target": 78,
"scenario_prob_bull": 22,
"scenario_prob_base": 55,
"scenario_prob_bear": 23,
"entry_groups_met": 0,
"entry_conviction": "Wait",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"hard_gate_state": "clear",
"gates_triggered": [],
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"earnings-quality one-off (Q4 interchange gain, ~6% of TTM NI, scored out)"
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"next_update_date": "2026-08-10",
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Short HOLD (base BUY capped — timing not yet confirmed), Medium BUY, Long BUY. Fairly valued on the strict anchor (clean 20.2x vs ~18.9x warranted, ratio 1.07 Fair); the signal rests on quality + an intact uptrend, and the entry ladder says Wait — accumulate on a dip to ~C$85 or a reclaim of ~C$91. All hard gates clear; no Do-Not-Buy trigger.