Re-rated 2026-07-03 — new Valuation methodology
- Valuation re-scored on the new warranted-multiple anchor. Clean 39× is above the 24× Discretionary guardrail (≈1.4× its ~28× warranted multiple) → BUY → HOLD across all horizons. Valuation pillar 53 → 35; entry conviction → Wait (valuation-ceiling gate blocks entry). Quality unchanged (74). Only the Valuation pillar and what it cascades to were re-scored; prices, technicals and events are unchanged from 20 Jun.
Changes Since Last Report (18 Jun 2026)
- Signal: BUY / BUY / STRONG BUY → HOLD / BUY / BUY. Long de-amplified from STRONG BUY; short cut to HOLD.
- Valuation pillar 64 → 53 and Quality 78 → 74 — driven by the new v6 step 7b earnings-quality normalisation: ~25.7% of TTM net income is non-operating equity-stake markups, so P/E 28.8→~39 clean, PEG 0.82→~1.8 clean, ROE 20.5%→~15% clean. The stock is fair, not cheap.
- Economic Alignment Tailwind → Neutral on the 2026-06-20 macro (SPY short O→N, hawkish Fed) and the new 'S&P 500 concentration / AI earnings-quality unwind' tail risk — which names AMZN directly.
- Bear scenario weight 15% → 20%; probability-weighted target ~$300 → ~$283.
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
| Horizon | Signal | Composite Score | Confidence | Key Driver |
|---|
| Short-term (1–3 mo) | HOLD | 45 | 60% | Expensive — 39× vs ~28× warranted and above the 24× Discretionary guardrail; capped at HOLD |
| Medium-term (6–12 mo) | HOLD | 50 | 62% | Expensive — 39× vs ~28× warranted and above the 24× Discretionary guardrail; capped at HOLD |
| Long-term (3–5 yr) | HOLD | 52 | 62% | Expensive — 39× vs ~28× warranted and above the 24× Discretionary guardrail; capped at HOLD |
Next update: 2026-07-06 — default +14d (Q2 earnings ~end-July beyond window)
1
Five-Pillar Scorecard
Five independent scores — each 0–100 with its own confidence. The three fundamental pillars (Quality / Valuation / Timing) set the base BUY/HOLD/SELL via the Decision Matrix; the two context pillars (Underlying Drivers, Economic Alignment) then amplify a BUY to STRONG BUY or a SELL to STRONG SELL when both corroborate.
Business Quality
74
strong (clean ROE 15%)
conf 80%
Valuation Attractiveness
35
Expensive — 39× vs ~28× warranted; above 24× guardrail
conf 70%
Entry/Exit Timing
58
neutral / weakening
conf 60%
Underlying Drivers
65
tailwind (earnings-quality caveat)
conf 66%
Economic Alignment
52
Neutral
conf 60%
2
Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status
Binary safety checks — any TRIGGERED gate is a hard cap regardless of the scores above; CAUTION gates are sizing notes.
✅Financial Distress
Negative FCF is capex-driven (AWS/AI buildout) — OCF strong ($13.83/sh), D/E 0.47, interest coverage 33.7x. Not distress.
⚠️Valuation Ceiling
Clean 39× is above the 24× Consumer-Discretionary guardrail (and ~1.4× its ~28× warranted multiple) → caps the signal at HOLD.
✅Earnings Event
No earnings within 14 days (Q2 ~end July / early Aug).
⚠️Accounting / Earnings Quality
⚠ NON-OPERATING DISTORTION: ~25.7% of TTM net income (41.7% of Q1) is non-operating mark-to-market gains on equity stakes (Anthropic / Rivian-type) + 'other income' — not operating profit. Reported net margin (12.2%) actually EXCEEDS operating margin (11.5%), which is only possible because of those gains. Per v6 step 7b the Quality & Valuation pillars are scored on NORMALISED operating earnings (clean P/E ~39, clean ROE ~15%, clean PEG ~1.8), not the flattered headline (P/E 28.8, ROE 20.5%, PEG 0.82). Caution, not triggered — because we normalised and scored off the clean figures rather than letting the inflated multiples carry a BUY.
⚠️Macro-sensitivity
The 2026-06-20 macro report cut US Equities (SPY) short O→N (hawkish Fed) and added an explicit 'S&P 500 concentration / AI earnings-quality unwind' tail-risk card — and AMZN is one of the very mega-caps that risk is about. Position-sizing caution; no hard override.
Why this report changed vs 18 Jun. The prior AMZN report rated BUY / BUY / STRONG BUY off a Valuation pillar of 64 anchored on “PEG 0.82, P/E 28.9, net margin 12.2%” — every one of those computed on reported net income that is inflated ~26% by non-operating equity-stake markups. Under v6 step 7b those metrics are now normalised to operating earnings: clean P/E ~39, clean PEG ~1.8, clean ROE ~15%. That 20-Jun step de-amplified the long signal from STRONG BUY to BUY; the subsequent 2026-07-03 warranted-multiple re-rate then moved the valuation to Expensive and the signal to HOLD across all horizons (see §4). The business is unchanged and excellent — what changed is that we stopped scoring it on flattered earnings and now hold it to a warranted multiple.
3
Pillar Detail: Business Quality
A deep dive into the Quality score: business economics, moat, ROIC and the industry benchmark.
Business Quality — Pillar Score
Dominant retail + AWS/ads compounder — wide moat, AWS reaccelerating; clean ROE ~15% (not the 20.5% headline), capex peak depresses FCF.
Lifecycle: mature-growth mega-cap (~10%+ growth with AWS reaccel). Hybrid retail + cloud economics. Step 7b normalisation applied: the profitability and return metrics below show reported alongside clean (operating-earnings) figures, because ~26% of TTM net income is non-operating equity-stake markups.
| Sub-signal | Reported | Clean (operating) | Sector median | Score | Note |
|---|
| ROE | 20.5% | 15.1% | ~15% | 70 | Headline ROE flattered by non-op gains; clean ROE is good-not-elite, ~sector median |
| Net margin | 12.2% | 9.1% (after-tax op) | ~8% retail | 72 | Reported net margin (12.2%) exceeds operating margin (11.5%) — the tell that non-op income is inflating the bottom line |
| Operating margin | 11.5% | — | 80 | The clean read — AWS + ads lift the blended margin; unaffected by the distortion |
| Gross margin | 50.6% | — | 80 | Mix shift to high-margin AWS/ads |
| OCF/share | $13.83 (FCF -$0.23) | — | 65 | Cash generative; FCF masked by AI capex (capex/OCF ~0.98) |
Industry benchmark — growth + margin: AWS reaccelerating + ~20% ads growth with expanding operating margin → Score 78. Note the benchmark is read on operating profit, so it is unaffected by the earnings-quality issue.
Pricing Power 70
Prime + AWS latitude
Network 85
Two-sided marketplace
Switching 80
Prime + AWS lock-in
Cost Advantage 85
Fulfilment + cloud scale
Intangibles 75
Brand + data + logistics
Moat avg ~79 — among the widest in the market (network + switching + scale). Capital allocation reinvests at high ROIC (AWS, logistics, AI); founder-built culture, Jassy continuity. Quality trimmed 78→74 only because the return metrics are weaker once normalised — the underlying business quality is intact.
4
Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness
Sector-appropriate multiples, FCF yield, reverse-DCF implied growth, embedded optionality, and the analyst-consensus cross-check.
Valuation Attractiveness — Pillar Score
Expensive — 39× vs ~28× warranted (r 9% / g 15%); guardrail 24×. Clean P/E ~39 (vs 28.8 reported), clean PEG ~1.8 (vs 0.82); analyst upside (+26% to consensus) does not offset an above-guardrail multiple.
Warranted-Multiple Anchor (2026-07-03 re-rate)
Fair multiple is a two-stage DCF off the cost of equity and a disciplined growth rate, floored by a per-sector guardrail. r = 9.0% (10-Y 4.48% + 4.5% ERP + 0), disciplined g = 15% near-term (secular cap) tapering to 3% terminal → warranted P/E ≈ 28×. Actual clean P/E is 39.3× — that is ~1.4× the warranted multiple and above the 24× Consumer-Discretionary guardrail, which is the binding floor here. Both tests fire → Expensive (Valuation 35). High-Quality + Expensive caps the signal at HOLD across all horizons and blocks any STRONG-BUY amplification.⚠ Earnings-quality adjustment (v6 step 7b). ~$29.5B of TTM pre-tax income (≈$23B after-tax, 25.7% of net income; 41.7% in Q1 alone) is non-operating — mark-to-market markups on Amazon’s stakes in private companies (the Anthropic / Rivian-type gains the financial press has flagged) plus 'other income'. Those gains inflate every net-income-based multiple. Scored on operating earnings instead:
| Multiple | Reported | Clean (operating) | Read |
|---|
| Trailing P/E | 28.8x | ~39.3x | Sector ~25–28x → a real premium, not the discount the headline implied |
| PEG (trailing) | 0.82x | ~1.8x | Doubly flattered before: inflated E and inflated trailing EPS growth. Forward PEG is already 2.0x |
| Net margin | 12.2% | 9.1% | After-tax on operating income |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.5x | Clean (operating) — reasonable; unaffected by the distortion |
| P/FCF | negative (capex peak) | Use OCF/sh $13.83 as the anchor |
Reverse-DCF: at $244 the market prices ~mid-teens operating growth — against ~20% consensus forward EPS CAGR, so the operating business is still slightly undervalued; this, not the headline multiple, is the real bull case. Analyst cross-check (genuine support): consensus $307.77 (+26%), median $319 (+30%), high $330; grades 84 Buy / 9 Hold / 1 Sell ≈ 89% bullish (extreme consensus = mild contrarian caution). FMP health B (3/5) — dragged down by P/E (2) and P/B (1), confirming the valuation is full.
Embedded optionality / free upside: AWS AI monetisation (Bedrock, Trainium), advertising scaling, and the FCF inflection as capex normalises are upside not in today’s depressed FCF. But note the bull case now rests on operating execution and analyst upside — NOT on a cheap headline multiple, which on clean earnings it no longer has.
Valuation pillar 53→35: re-scored on the new warranted-multiple anchor — actual clean 39.3× ÷ warranted ~28× = 1.40, and 39.3× is above the 24× sector guardrail (the binding floor). Both the ratio test and the guardrail test fire. The reverse-DCF operating read and the +26% analyst target are genuine support but do not lift an above-guardrail multiple back to fair. Net: Expensive → HOLD (High-Quality + Expensive is capped at HOLD at all horizons; STRONG-BUY amplification blocked).
5
Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers
The dominant external force the stock is tethered to, scored 0–100. A context pillar: it does not change the base signal — it feeds amplification (tailwind ≥65 can lift BUY→STRONG BUY; headwind ≤35 can push SELL→STRONG SELL).
| Horizon | Read |
|---|
| Historical | AWS growth re-accelerating off the 2023-24 optimisation trough; consumer resilient (May retail sales +0.9%). |
| Current | US consumer firm; AWS + ads compounding. But note: a chunk of mega-cap 'AI earnings' (incl. AMZN’s) is the non-operating stake markups above — an earnings-quality caveat on the AI tailwind, two-sided if AI private valuations stall. |
| Forward | AI-cloud capex supercycle drives AWS demand; macro rates Cons. Discretionary a tailwind but Tech/large-cap leadership now carries concentration risk. |
Label: Tailwind, score 65 — trimmed from 70 for the earnings-quality caveat, now just below the ≥65 amplification bar. Combined with a Neutral economy (below), the long-horizon signal is NOT amplified to STRONG BUY this run (the prior report’s amplification required both a driver tailwind and a supportive economy).
6
Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment
How the current economic climate sits relative to this stock, read from the latest Macro-Economic report. Classifies the macro pressure (Tailwind / Neutral / Headwind) — the second amplification input — and frames a long entry as Trend-Following or Contrarian with a 0–100 conviction.
The fresh 2026-06-20 macro flipped to a Soft-Landing/Reacceleration co-lead on a hawkish FOMC (higher-for-longer), cut US Equities (SPY) short Outperform→Neutral, and added an explicit 'S&P 500 concentration / AI earnings-quality unwind' tail risk. AMZN sits at the intersection of a resilient-consumer tailwind (XLY) and that mega-cap concentration overhang — it IS one of the names the tail risk describes. Net pressure Neutral (downgraded from the prior report’s Tailwind), which removes the long-horizon STRONG-BUY amplification.
Source: MacroEconomic report 2026-06-20 (SPY short O→N; new concentration tail-risk card) · Macro report 2026-06-20
7
Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing
The risk-reward framework, relative strength vs SPY and the sector ETF, the macro overlay, news-derived sentiment, and the catalyst cluster.
Entry/Exit Timing — Pillar Score
Higher-timeframe uptrend intact but the daily is weakening — below the SMA20/50 (253/257), holding above the SMA200 ($233). RSI 44, recovered from oversold. Buy-the-dip setup, unconfirmed.
Risk-reward: $244 sits ~$11 above the rising SMA200 ($233) after a ~12% pullback from the $278 high. Daily RSI 44 (recovered from 37). The setup is a higher-timeframe-uptrend + lower-timeframe-pullback — constructive, but the daily trend is still 'weakening' and price is below the SMA20/50, so the turn is not yet confirmed. Logical stop below $215. Relative strength: mid-range vs megacap peers. Sentiment: near-unanimous Buy grades (mild contrarian caution at 89%). Catalyst: Q2 earnings ~end-July.
8
Economic Event Risk
High-impact macro releases in the next 14 days that could swing this stock, plus the last 7 days of surprises.
Upcoming events (next 30 days)
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|
| 25 Jun | US Core PCE (May) | Medium | — | — | ⚠ | Consumer-spending + inflation read; feeds the hawkish-Fed path that pressures long-duration growth |
| ~31 Jul | AMZN Q2 earnings | High | — | — | ✅ | AWS growth + capex guide + the size of non-operating gains — the next binary mover and the key earnings-quality tell |
Recent surprises (last 7 days)
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|
| 17 Jun | FOMC | Hold (hawkish) | Hold | Hawkish dot-plot flip (median 2026 hike) | Higher discount rate → headwind to long-duration growth; macro cut SPY short O→N |
Low single-name macro-sensitivity, but the regime turned less supportive: hawkish Fed + the new concentration tail risk are the overhangs. No high-impact event inside the 3-day window → no timing override.
9
Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis
Trend, RSI and breakout status across monthly / weekly / daily / hourly / 15-minute, with a confluence verdict.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend | ↑ | 57.3 | + rising | S 161 · R 259 | Breakout | 0.7x |
| Weekly | Uptrend | ↑ | 52.2 | + flat | S 211 · R 278 | Breakout | 0.8x |
| Daily | Weakening | → | 44.0 | - falling | S 233 · R 256 | None | 1.7x |
| Hourly | Strong Down | ↓ | 54.0 | + turning | S 236 · R 249 | None | — |
| 15-min | Recovering | ↑ | 51.9 | − | S 236 · R 246 | — | — |
| Confluence: BULLISH (higher TFs) — daily soft · MTF Score 60 |
Monthly and weekly uptrends are intact (breakouts held); the daily has pulled back to the rising SMA200 ($233) and is below the SMA20/50. Textbook higher-timeframe-uptrend + lower-timeframe-pullback — $233 is the line that defines it; a daily reclaim of $256 (SMA50) on volume confirms the turn.
10
Price Chart (6-Month Daily)
A 6-month daily close line with SMA50 and key support/resistance — the visual companion to the MTF table.
6-month path: ran to the $278 high, pulled back ~12% to the rising SMA200 ($233), bouncing to $244. SMA50 ($257) overhead is the level to reclaim.
11
Scenario Summary
Bull / Base / Bear 12-month price paths with triggers and probability weights.
Bull · 30% → $325 (+33%)
AWS reaccel + ads + capex inflects FCF positive; the operating story carries the multiple even as non-operating gains fade; re-rates toward the street’s $330.
Base · 50% → $290 (+19%)
Steady AWS growth + resilient consumer; drifts toward the $307 consensus on operating execution. Fair value on clean earnings ~$285.
Bear · 20% → $205 (-16%)
Two legs. Idiosyncratic: an AI private-valuation markdown turns the non-operating gains NEGATIVE (the two-sided risk), consumer softens. Systemic AI-concentration unwind (the deeper tail): AMZN is in the AI-concentration cohort, so a breadth/concentration de-rate compresses the whole cohort's multiple at once — a cohort-wide fall from ~39× toward the 24× guardrail is a far larger drawdown than the idiosyncratic case, well below $205. Trigger: a market-wide AI earnings-quality repricing / mega-cap breadth break (rising rates + fading AI-capex ROI). Falsified if: AWS AI revenue inflects and operating EPS growth holds the multiple, or breadth broadens with the cohort intact.
Probability-weighted ≈ $283 (+16%) — still a positive skew on the quality + analyst upside, but thinner and more two-sided than the prior report’s ~$300 once the earnings-quality tail is properly weighted.
12
Entry / Exit Rules
Three independent entry paths (Fundamental · Technical · Catalyst) and three exit triggers (Stop-Loss · Thesis · Profit-Target). Any one entry path is a valid entry — the more that agree, the larger the position the conviction ladder suggests. Exits are graded by severity, not count.
How to read this — the Conviction Ladder
The three entry groups are alternative paths to a buy, not a checklist. A group counts only when all its sub-conditions hold. How many groups are satisfied sets the suggested size — it does not gate whether you may enter: 1 group = Half-Size (a valid starter/scale-in), 2 = Full-Size, 3 = Over-Size (highest conviction); 0 = Wait (no path open yet). A strong overall signal can still read Wait here when the stock is well above its entry zones — that flags "good business, no entry edge right now," not a contradiction. Exits are graded by severity of what is live, not by a count: a hard stop is an Exit on its own.
Entry conviction: Waitvaluation-ceiling gate blocks entry — clean 39× above the 24× guardrail caps the signal at HOLD; no fresh entry edge
Fundamental — not MET
Now expensive on the warranted-multiple anchor — the valuation-ceiling gate blocks a fundamental entry.
⛔ Clean 39× above the 24× guardrail (≈1.4× the ~28× warranted) — no valuation margin of safety
✅ No earnings within 7 days
✅ Underlying-Driver score ≥ 50 (65)
Technical — not MET
Daily below the SMA20/50; preferred entry is a reclaim OR a confirmed bounce off $233.
⛔ Daily close > SMA50 ($257) on >1.5x volume
⛔ OR a tested higher-low bounce off the $233 SMA200
✅ RSI 35-65 (44)
Catalyst — not MET
No event in the window.
· Q2 AWS-growth beat + capex discipline + smaller non-op reliance, >2x volume
Forecast: 0 groups open — the valuation-ceiling gate caps the signal at HOLD, so there is no fresh-entry edge today. A fundamental path reopens only if price falls back toward the ~28× warranted multiple (or clean earnings grow into 39×); the technical path would still need a daily reclaim of $257. Conviction ladder: Wait.
Exit action: Holdno exit trigger is live — hold the position
Stop-Loss — not LIVE
⛔ Two daily closes below $215 (below the SMA200/weekly support)
Thesis Invalidation — not LIVE
⛔ AWS growth decelerates materially or AI capex with no revenue inflection
⛔ OR a concentration/AI earnings-quality unwind derates the mega-caps (non-op gains turn negative)
Profit-Target — not LIVE
⛔ Price into the $320–330 high target with weekly RSI > 70
Forecast: Stop unlikely near-term (price ~12% above $215); the live risk is thesis (concentration/earnings-quality), not the stop.
Imagine you act at the current price of $244.39 · as of 20 Jun 2026
What if you bought now?
Risking ~$29 (-12%) to the $215 stop to gain ~$46 (+19%) to the $290 base — RR ~1.6:1, but the entry is now expensive (clean 39× above the 24× guardrail), so the valuation-ceiling gate says wait, not accumulate.
What if you sold now?
Giving up a +19% base / +33% bull path on a wide-moat compounder — but the clean valuation no longer makes this an obvious accumulate, and the macro/concentration overhang argues for patience or half-size.
13
Position Sizing Context
Illustrative portfolio math (not advice) translating conviction into an allocation given risk-per-share and volatility.
Position sizing not computed — no allocation/role specified. Volatility: beta ~1.44, daily ATR ~$7.7 (~3.1%), 52-week range $196–$278.56. Given the Neutral macro + concentration tail risk, half-size is the framework’s default posture here.
14
Calibration Snapshot
Machine-readable snapshot of every score, level and signal, saved alongside the HTML so the next run can compute deltas.
{
"ticker": "AMZN",
"exchange_ticker": "NASDAQ:AMZN",
"isin": "US0231351067",
"company": "Amazon.com, Inc.",
"date": "2026-06-20",
"version": "v6",
"analysis_status": "on-going",
"finder_ticker": "AMZN",
"finder_exchange": "\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 NASDAQ",
"section": "Consumer Discretionary",
"lifecycle_stage": "mature_growth",
"price_at_rating_usd": 244.39,
"currency": "USD",
"signal_short": "HOLD",
"signal_medium": "HOLD",
"signal_long": "HOLD",
"composite_short": 45,
"composite_medium": 50,
"composite_long": 52,
"quality_score": 74,
"valuation_score": 35,
"warranted_multiple": 28,
"actual_multiple": 39.3,
"val_multiple_basis": "clean P/E",
"discount_rate_r": 9.0,
"risk_free_10y": 4.48,
"g_near": 15,
"g_term": 3,
"warranted_ratio": 1.40,
"val_band": "expensive",
"timing_score": 58,
"driver_score": 65,
"driver_label": "Tailwind",
"economic_alignment_stance": "Neutral",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 52,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Neutral",
"economic_alignment_source": "MacroEconomic 2026-06-20 (SPY O\u2192N + concentration tail risk)",
"macro_report_date": "2026-06-20",
"moat_score": 79,
"roe_pct_reported": 20.5,
"roe_pct_clean": 15.1,
"pe_reported": 28.8,
"clean_pe": 39.3,
"peg_reported": 0.82,
"clean_peg": 1.8,
"net_margin_reported": 12.2,
"net_margin_clean_operating": 9.1,
"operating_margin": 11.5,
"nonop_pct_of_net_income": 25.7,
"nonop_pct_of_net_income_q1": 41.7,
"ev_ebitda": 14.5,
"ocf_per_share": 13.83,
"fcf_yield": -0.1,
"analyst_consensus_target": 307.77,
"analyst_target_high": 330,
"analyst_target_low": 175,
"analyst_target_median": 319,
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 26,
"analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
"analyst_bullish_pct": 89,
"analyst_coverage_count": 94,
"overall_confidence": 62,
"fair_value_est": 285,
"stop_loss": 215,
"target_price": 290,
"target_bull": 325,
"target_bear": 205,
"hard_gate_state": "caution",
"gates_triggered": [],
"gates_caution": [
"Valuation Ceiling",
"Accounting / Earnings Quality",
"Macro-sensitivity"
],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"entry_groups_met": 0,
"entry_conviction": "Wait",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"entry_criteria_total": 3,
"entry_criteria_met": 0,
"focus_qualifies": false,
"focus_reason": "Short-term HOLD \u2014 does not qualify for Focus Stocks this run.",
"next_update_date": "2026-07-06",
"next_update_basis": "default +14d (Q2 earnings ~end-July beyond window)",
"prior_signal": "HOLD/BUY/BUY",
"prior_valuation_score": 53,
"rerated_date": "2026-07-03",
"change_note": "2026-07-03 re-rate on the new warranted-multiple Valuation anchor: clean 39.3x vs ~28x warranted (ratio 1.40) and above the 24x Consumer-Discretionary guardrail (binding floor) \u2192 Expensive, Valuation 53\u219235; High-Quality + Expensive caps signal at HOLD/HOLD/HOLD; entry Wait"
}
This snapshot reflects the 2026-07-03 warranted-multiple re-rate: signal HOLD/HOLD/HOLD, Valuation 35. The earlier 20-Jun run had first applied v6 step 7b (earnings-quality normalisation), moving BUY/BUY/STRONG-BUY → HOLD/BUY/BUY (Valuation 64→53); the re-rate then took the above-guardrail clean 39.3× multiple to Expensive → HOLD. Business quality unchanged (74).
15
Data Sources & Methodology
Audit trail of every data source: fully available (✓), fallback (⚠), or failed (✗), plus provenance-based confidence haircuts.
Data Source Status
✓
get_income_statement (4q) step 7b decomposition — non-op = 25.7% of TTM NI
✓
get_financial_ratios reported P/E 28.8, net margin 12.2%, ROE inputs
✓
get_company_profile / get_stock_snapshot price $244.39, beta 1.44, mktcap $2.63T
✓
get_multi_timeframe_analysis 5-TF technicals
✓
get_price_target_consensus / _summary $307.77 consensus, $319 median, 31 analysts Q
✓
get_grades_consensus 84 Buy / 9 Hold / 1 Sell
✓
get_ratings_snapshot FMP health B (3/5)
✓
get_analyst_estimates forward EPS path 2026 8.80 → 2028 12.94
✓
MacroEconomic 2026-06-20 Economic Alignment + concentration tail risk
Impact on scores: Strong data coverage; overall confidence ~62%. The watch items: the non-operating share of earnings each quarter, the 89% bullish consensus, and breadth/concentration.
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.