The pillars conflict in a useful way: a top-decile business riding a top-decile driver and a friendly economy, but at only a fair price and in a mixed tape. That is exactly why the three horizons diverge — Quality/driver/economy dominate the long horizon (STRONG BUY), the fair valuation and sub-200-DMA pullback keep the medium horizon a disciplined BUY/accumulate, and a high-impact Fed meeting one day out overrides the short horizon to WAIT.
Do-Not-Buy triggers: none fired. Leverage+rising-rates (no debt) ✓ · Valuation extreme (P/E not top-decile) ✓ · Negative earnings revisions (estimates rising with gold) ✓ · Insider selling spike (none observed) ✓ · Structural threat (none) ✓. Hard-gate state: CLEAR (✓).
Sector: Mining / Materials (Gold). Lifecycle: Mature producer — 2026 guidance 3.3–3.5M oz, profitable and free-cash-generative, with a 20–30% production-growth pipeline (Detour Lake/Canadian Malartic underground, Hope Bay, Upper Beaver). Scored on sector-appropriate metrics (AISC margin, FCF yield, net debt/EBITDA), not on the optically huge but price-driven +66% YoY revenue.
| Sub-Signal | Value | Sector Benchmark | Score | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AISC margin (benchmark) | ~US$3,350/oz (≈70% of price) | >40% of spot = 90–100 | 95 | Realized gold US$4,861/oz (Q1) vs AISC ~US$1,400–1,550. Enormous margin of safety. |
| Profitability vs peers | EBITDA 72% · net 39.5% · op 56.9% | Top-tier among seniors | 90 | Record quarterly operating margins; net income +108% YoY in Q1. |
| Cash generation | FCF ~US$4.5B TTM · ~33% FCF margin | FCF yield >5% strong | 82 | FCF yield ~5.3% on EV; converts ~64% of operating cash flow after heavy growth capex. |
| Balance-sheet health | Net cash ~US$2.8B · D/E 1.2% · cur. 3.15× | Net debt/EBITDA <1× = strong | 95 | Effectively debt-free; interest coverage 90.7×. Best-in-class survivability. |
| Revenue trajectory | +66% YoY (price-driven) | Volume growth 20–30% pipeline | 68 | Top line is mostly gold-price beta; underlying volume growth is solid but modest. |
Moat average ≈ 60. A gold miner's durable edge is geological and operational, not commercial — AEM's genuine advantages are its low-cost, long-life Tier-1-jurisdiction asset base and renewable-powered operations that insulate it from fuel-cost shocks. It cannot raise the price of its product, so pricing power is (correctly) neutral.
| Component (weight) | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC / returns (40%) | ROE 22.3%, ROA 15.5%; FMP ROE & ROA sub-scores both 5/5. Top-quartile, rising with gold. | 85 |
| Capital-allocation discipline (30%) | Bolt-on M&A and strategic stakes building the pipeline (Aurion/Finland closed Jun 15 at C$2.60; ~19.9% of Wallbridge/Fenelon; Cascadia/Yukon). Dividend payout only ~14% — conservative, room to grow + buybacks. | 80 |
| Management skin-in-the-game (30%) | Long-tenured, well-regarded team; low SBC dilution; record results delivered against guidance. | 72 |
FMP financial-health rating: A (4/5) — DCF 5, ROE 5, ROA 5, D/E 3, with the only drags being the valuation sub-scores (P/E 2, P/B 2). The independent rating confirms our high Quality read and previews the Valuation tension below.
| Multiple | Current | Reference | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/NAV (primary, mining) | ~2.0–2.3× (est.) | Seniors ~1.4–2.0× | Premium to peers — AEM is the most expensive senior on NAV, the quality/jurisdiction tax. |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.74× | Reasonable at spot, rich on mid-cycle | Looks fair today but normalises higher if gold mean-reverts. |
| Forward P/E | ~12.2× | 2026E EPS ~US$13.65 | Optically cheap — but the "E" is peak-gold; analysts model EPS easing 2028→2030. |
| Trailing P/E / P/B | 16.6× / 3.36× | FMP P/E & P/B sub-scores 2/5 | P/B rich; the statistical-cheapness screens fail. |
| FCF yield (anchor) | ~5.3% on EV | 5–8% attractive | Honest cash yield in the attractive band, after heavy growth capex. |
At C$246 with a net-cash balance sheet and ~US$4.5B TTM FCF, the market is roughly capitalising current free cash flow as a perpetuity at a high-single-digit discount rate with little real growth — i.e. it is pricing in sustained near-record gold. Consensus agrees in the near term but not the long: EPS is modelled at ~US$13.65 (2026E) → US$14.41 (2027E) → then easing to US$12.99 (2028E), US$11.04 (2029E), US$10.81 (2030E) as analysts assume gold normalises. So the forward-P/E "cheapness" is an artefact of peak earnings; on mid-cycle gold the multiple is full. That is the core reason Valuation is Fair rather than Attractive despite the headline upside.
| Metric | CAD (TSX:AEM) | Upside vs C$246.41 | Cross-check (NYSE, USD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus / mean | C$340.95 | +38.4% | US$248.17 (+41% on US$175.82) |
| Median | C$356.47 | +44.7% | US$238 |
| High / Low | C$429.85 / C$134.02 | spread 3.2× (very wide) | US$310 / US$210 |
| Coverage / rec. | 11 analysts · "Buy" (1.91) | Recent 1-mo avg target US$261.5 — targets racing up to chase gold (all-time avg only US$179). | |
Targets signal ~40% upside (Attractive on this sub-signal alone, ~10% of the pillar), but the 3.2× high/low spread (a deep-bear outlier at C$134) and the fact targets have been chasing the gold price down a -10% confidence haircut. Grades consensus (FMP): Buy 20 · Hold 10 · Sell 1 → 64.5% bullish ("Buy with >30% holds" → ~58). Recent actions are almost all maintains (CIBC Outperform 5/26, JPM Neutral 5/4, Scotia Sector Outperform) — sentiment steady, not accelerating. FMP health rating A, dragged only by the P/E (2) and P/B (2) valuation sub-scores — independently corroborating "high quality, full price."
| Horizon (weight) | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Historical (25%) | Gold ran from ~US$1,800/oz (2022) to ~US$4,800–4,900/oz (2026) — a generational secular uptrend; AEM earnings tripled. | 95 |
| Current state (50%) | Spot ~US$4,800–4,900 vs AISC ~US$1,475 → ~70% margin. As favourable as it gets for a producer. | 92 |
| Forward outlook (25%) | Macro report rates GLD Strong Outperform across all horizons (de-dollar CB bid, stagflation hedge, Iran/Hormuz premium). Tempered by record price levels and a positive 2.15% real yield that could bite on a hawkish Fed. | 75 |
Driver score = 95·0.25 + 92·0.50 + 75·0.25 ≈ 88 → Strong Tailwind, amplification-eligible (≥65). It does not change the base BUY/HOLD/SELL or the three fundamental pillar scores — it only enables a base BUY to become STRONG BUY when the economy also pushes the same way (it does, §6). Thesis-invalidation floor: a sustained gold break below ~US$2,500/oz would compress (not erase) AISC margins and invalidate the premium multiple; below ~US$1,600 the Severe-Driver-Collapse gate would arm. Both are far from spot. Confidence 70% (−10 for gold's inherent forward volatility; current state crystal-clear).
AEM is not a named line in the macro report's Economic Watchlist Forecast, so the read comes from the Driver-Sector Impact Matrix: AEM is Materials (XLB), and the report rates XLB Strong Outperform / Strong Outperform / Strong Outperform across Short/Medium/Long — the only sector that is SO on all three horizons — with capital flow IN / IN / IN. The matching asset class GLD is likewise SO/SO/SO. The dominant regime is Stagflation (oil shock + hawkish Fed), in which gold is the report's highest-conviction multi-year beneficiary (de-dollarisation, sovereign-debt/fiscal dominance, Iran/Hormuz, central-bank accumulation).
Anchoring on the Medium horizon, the pressure is a clear Tailwind; going long rides the economic trend (Trend-Following), conviction 82. The one near-term cross-current is the same one the Timing pillar flags: a hawkish Fed (Warsh's first FOMC, Jun 17) could lift real yields and produce a short, sharp gold pullback even as the structural tailwind persists. Amplification effect: the Tailwind did fire at the Long horizon — combined with the driver (88), it lifts the base BUY to STRONG BUY. At Medium the base is a borderline BUY and we deliberately decline the STRONG amplification (see §1 / Decision logic) on valuation grounds; the Tailwind is noted but not applied. Source: sector-map; macro report 2026-06-13. Confidence 75%.
| Sub-signal (weight) | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| MTF trend (30%) | Monthly & weekly uptrend; daily downtrend + support breakdown (below SMA50 ~C$265 and SMA200 ~C$259); hourly/15-min bouncing. | 60 |
| Risk-reward (20%) | Price at the weekly-50 support shelf (~C$246), ~16% above the C$210 stop; daily ATR ~C$11 (4.6%). Mixed — a support test, but below the trend MAs. | 52 |
| Macro overlay (20%, High sensitivity) | Materials in-favour (rotation IN); VIX 16.2 (calm); yield curve +0.38 normal; but a hawkish Fed is a near-term gold cross-current. | 68 |
| Sentiment (15%) | Grades mostly maintain last 30–60d (CIBC OP, JPM Neutral, Scotia SO); news tone strongly positive ("record margins," "smart mining stock to add," top fund holding). | 56 |
| Catalysts (15%) | No earnings within 14 days; no clustered events. Calm — barring the macro FOMC overlay handled in §8. | 75 |
Relative strength & range: AEM has strongly outperformed SPY over 12 months on the gold bull, but lagged over the last 1–3 months during the pullback (52-week range position ~47%, i.e. mid-range, −29% off the C$348.94 high). Position-risk: the C$212.41 swing low (Jun 10) is the line in the sand; price has reclaimed the C$240 daily EMA20 but not the C$259–265 daily MA cluster — confirmation of trend repair would meaningfully improve the entry.
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | FOMC rate decision + projections + presser (Warsh's first) | High | Hold 3.75% | 3.75% | ✅ Critical — gold is rate/real-yield sensitive; macro flags ~25% hike risk & removal of easing language |
| 2026-06-17 | Retail Sales MoM (May) | High | +0.5% | +0.5% | ⚠️ Indirect — growth/risk read |
| 2026-06-25 | Core PCE MoM (May) | High | +0.2% | +0.2% | ✅ Inflation → Fed path → real yields → gold |
| 2026-06-30 | CB Consumer Confidence / JOLTs | High | — | 93.1 / 7.62M | ⚠️ Medium |
| 2026-07-01 | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) | High | 52.5 | 54.0 | ⚠️ Medium — materials demand read |
| 2026-07-02 | Non-Farm Payrolls / Unemployment (Jun) | High | +70K / 4.5% | +172K / 4.3% | ✅ Labour softening → Fed path → gold |
Recent surprises (last 7 days): CPI YoY (May) 4.2% (inline, up from 3.8% — sticky); Core CPI YoY 2.9%; PPI MoM hot at +1.1% (+57% surprise); Michigan sentiment beat (48.9). The tape is stagflationary — supportive of gold as an inflation/debasement hedge, but also fuel for a hawkish Fed and higher real yields that can pressure gold short-term. Override: because mining is High-sensitivity and a high-impact FOMC is <3 trading days out, the short-term signal is set to WAIT-FOR-EVENT regardless of composite, and the report's next-update is pinned to FOMC +1 day (2026-06-18).
| Timeframe | Trend | RSI | MACD | Key S/R (USD) | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend ↑ | 60.1 | +, rising | R 187.5 / 255.2 | Resistance breakout | 0.66× |
| Weekly | Uptrend ↑ | 47.0 | −, falling | S 175.6 / 160.2 · R 187.5 | Resistance breakout | 0.52× |
| Daily | Downtrend ↓ | 47.5 | −, flat | S 150.7 · MA50 189 / MA200 184 | Support breakdown | 1.39× |
| Hourly | Uptrend ↑ | 61.0 | +, fading | S 170.9 · R 177.2 | Resistance breakout | — |
| 15-min | Strong up ↑ | 49.2 | flat | S 173.3 · R 177.2 | Resistance breakout | — |
| Confluence: Mostly bullish secular trend with a daily pullback — weighted MTF score ≈ 60 (tool flag: "strongly bullish," driven by the monthly breakout). | ||||||
Monthly and weekly structures remain in uptrends and the monthly just broke to new resistance, but the daily has rolled over below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages with a support breakdown — the signature of a correction within a larger bull. Price is now rebounding off the C$212 (US$150-area) swing low on the hourly/15-min, with elevated daily volume (1.39×). Net read: a constructive "buy-the-dip" zone once the daily reclaims the ~C$259–265 (US$184–189) MA cluster; until then the lower-timeframe bounce is unconfirmed and event-exposed.
Gold holds/extends above US$4,800; real yields ease on a dovish Fed pivot; production beats and the growth pipeline de-risks. AEM retests the C$348.94 high and pushes toward the analyst median (C$356). Driver + economy fire on all cylinders.
Gold range-bound at a high level; AEM recovers the daily MA cluster and re-rates toward fair value (~C$272) and into the lower analyst band as record FCF compounds. Steady accumulation pays.
Hawkish Fed lifts real yields; risk-off USD strength triggers a 15–20% gold correction. AEM breaks the C$212 swing low; multiple de-rates from its premium. Margins stay positive (no distress) — a valuation reset, not a solvency event.
Key levels (CAD): Stop C$210 · Support C$226 / C$212 (swing low) / C$205 · Fair value ~C$272 · Resistance C$254 / C$270 / C$302 / C$337 / C$348.94 (high) · Analyst mean C$341.
Position sizing not computed — no portfolio allocation or role was specified for this batch analysis. Volatility context for when you do size: beta ~0.57 vs SPY (low market beta, but high gold beta), daily ATR ~C$11 (~4.6% of price), and a demonstrated ~29% peak-to-trough drawdown in the last quarter. Catalyst clustering is calm (score ~75) apart from the FOMC overlay, so no clustering-based size cut applies. For medium/long horizons, a staggered 3-tranche entry — e.g. at the C$240–246 shelf, on a daily reclaim of ~C$265, and at the C$212 swing-low retest — would average in and reduce timing risk given the live event.
calibration-AEM.TO-20260616-1703.json so the next run can compute deltas and the watchlist monitor can render the Hard-Gate / Entry / Exit cells without parsing HTML. This is the first report for AEM.TO — no prior calibration, so no "Changes Since Last Report" box.{
"ticker": "AEM.TO", "exchange_ticker": "TSX:AEM", "isin": "CA0084741085",
"company": "Agnico Eagle Mines Limited", "date": "2026-06-16", "version": "v6",
"analysis_status": "on-going", "finder_ticker": "AEM", "finder_exchange": "🇨🇦 TSX · 🇺🇸 NYSE",
"section": "Gold Miners", "lifecycle_stage": "mature",
"price_at_rating_cad": 246.41, "price_at_rating_usd": 175.82, "fx_cad_per_usd": 1.402,
"signal_short": "WAIT_FOR_EVENT", "signal_medium": "BUY", "signal_long": "STRONG_BUY",
"composite_short": 60, "composite_medium": 65, "composite_long": 71,
"quality_score": 84, "valuation_score": 55, "timing_score": 54,
"driver_score": 88, "driver_label": "Strong Tailwind",
"economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following", "economic_alignment_conviction": 82,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Tailwind", "economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
"macro_report_date": "2026-06-13",
"quality_detail": {"industry_benchmark_name": "AISC Margin", "industry_benchmark_value": 70,
"industry_benchmark_score": 95, "moat_score": 60, "roic_percentile_vs_peers": 85,
"capital_allocation": 80, "management_skin_in_game": 72, "fmp_rating": "A", "fmp_overall_score": 4},
"valuation_detail": {"fcf_yield": 5.3, "forward_pe": 12.2, "ev_ebitda": 8.74, "pb": 3.36,
"analyst_consensus_target_cad": 340.95, "analyst_target_high_cad": 429.85, "analyst_target_low_cad": 134.02,
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 38.4, "analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy", "analyst_bullish_pct": 64.5,
"analyst_coverage_count": 11, "recent_upgrades_30d": 0, "recent_downgrades_30d": 0},
"timing_detail": {"mtf_confluence": 60, "risk_reward_score": 52, "catalyst_clustering_score": 75,
"dynamic_macro_weight": 0.20, "rel_strength_52w_pct": 47},
"confidence": {"quality": 80, "valuation": 68, "timing": 65, "driver": 70, "economic": 75, "overall": 65},
"hard_gate_state": "clear", "gates_triggered": [], "gates_caution": [], "do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"amplification": {"short": "overridden_WAIT (FOMC <3d)", "medium": "BUY (STRONG declined, valuation)", "long": "BUY->STRONG_BUY (driver 88 + Tailwind)"},
"fair_value_est_cad": 272, "stop_loss_cad": 210, "target_base_cad": 288, "target_bull_cad": 345, "target_bear_cad": 208,
"entry_criteria_total": 5, "entry_criteria_met": 2, "exit_criteria_total": 3, "exit_criteria_met": 0,
"next_update_date": "2026-06-18", "next_check_date": "2026-06-18",
"next_update_basis": "FOMC 2026-06-17 +1d (gold rate-sensitive, high-impact within 3-day window)"
}