DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
| Horizon | Signal | Composite Score | Confidence | Key Driver |
|---|
| Short-term (1–3 mo) |
HOLD |
64 |
68% |
Breakout intact but entry is extended ~2 ATR above support, ahead of the 17 Jun FOMC — wait for a pullback rather than chase |
| Medium-term (6–12 mo) |
BUY (accumulate) |
65 |
68% |
FDA-cleared MRD category leader, +35% revenue / +53% MRD growth, inflecting to FCF-positive; ~22% upside to (stale) consensus |
| Long-term (3–5 yr) |
BUY |
66 |
68% |
Durable quality: only FDA-cleared blood-cancer MRD franchise, embedded Pfizer/Genentech/Microsoft optionality, expanding TAM |
No Do-Not-Buy trigger fired and no hard gate is triggered (one CAUTION: ~5–6%/yr share dilution + elevated SBC). All three signals come from the Quality / Valuation / Timing decision matrix after the +Tailwind driver nudge.
1
Five-Pillar Scorecard
Five independent scores — Business Quality, Valuation Attractiveness, Underlying Drivers, Economic Alignment, and Entry/Exit Timing — each 0–100 with its own confidence. The one-glance dashboard: a weak leg stays visible rather than being averaged away. The per-horizon BUY/HOLD/SELL signals are driven by the Quality / Valuation / Timing decision matrix (after the driver nudge); Underlying Drivers and Economic Alignment are shown here as independent lenses, not extra signal inputs.
Business Quality
70
FDA-cleared MRD leader, 75% gross margin, losses narrowing fast — not yet profitable
Confidence: 70% · Pre-adjustment: 68
Valuation Attractiveness
61
~10x revenue (Fair, upper edge); ~22% upside to stale consensus + free optionality
Confidence: 72% · Pre-adjustment: 60
Underlying Drivers
72
clonoSEQ MRD adoption & reimbursement — Tailwind
Confidence: 62%
Economic Alignment
50
Neutral
Confidence: 55% · Macro report 2026-06-13
Entry/Exit Timing
63
Higher-timeframe uptrend + breakout; entry extended after a run
Confidence: 68% · Pre-adjustment: 59
Overall confidence = min(Quality 70, Valuation 72, Timing 68) = 68%. The chain is only as strong as its weakest pillar; the driver tailwind added +2 Quality / +1 Valuation / +4 Timing before the matrix.
2
Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status
Binary safety checks — liquidity, debt, dilution/accounting, valuation ceiling, binary-event and driver-collapse gates. Any TRIGGERED gate is a hard cap regardless of the scores above; CAUTION gates are notes for position sizing. This section exists so a strong composite can never override a structural risk.
✅Financial Distress — Clear
~$218M cash, current ratio 3.4, tiny net debt (debt/mkt-cap 0.05), near FCF-breakeven. No distress.
✅Earnings Event — Clear
Next earnings ~early Aug 2026 (Q2), >14 days out. No imminent binary print.
✅Valuation Ceiling — Clear
$17.46 is below the lowest analyst target ($21); EV/Rev ~10x (not >20x); mid-range of 5-yr band.
⚠️Dilution / Accounting — CAUTION
Shares ~147M→155.5M YoY (+5.7%) and elevated stock-based comp. Below the hard-trigger bar but worth watching; does not cap the signal.
✅Binary Regulatory Event — Clear
clonoSEQ already FDA-cleared; no pending make-or-break FDA/antitrust ruling.
✅Severe Driver Collapse — Clear
Driver score 72 (Tailwind); no commodity/regulatory floor breach.
Do-Not-Buy Triggers
✅Leverage + Rising Rates — Clear
Minimal debt; Fed on hold/easing.
✅Valuation at 5-yr Extreme — Clear
Mid-range, not top decile.
✅Negative Earnings Revisions — Clear
Loss estimates narrowing, not deteriorating.
✅Insider Selling Spike — Clear (with note)
Multiple execs sold, but all pre-arranged 10b5-1 / option-exercise / tax-driven, large stakes retained. Not a discretionary spike → trigger does not fire.
✅Structural Business-Model Threat — Clear (monitor)
Natera's Foresight acquisition raises blood-cancer MRD competition, but ADPT remains the FDA-cleared leader — a risk, not an existential break.
3
Pillar Detail: Business Quality
A deep dive into the Quality score: revenue trajectory, gross margin, cash runway, the competitive moat, capital allocation / management alignment, and the industry benchmark. Metrics are chosen for a high-growth, pre-profit diagnostics company — P/E, ROE and EBITDA are deliberately avoided as misleading at this lifecycle stage.
Business Quality — Pillar Score
A genuinely good business and the FDA-cleared category leader in blood-cancer MRD — 75% gross margin, +35% revenue, losses cut ~63% YoY — but still pre-profit with negative ROIC, which caps it short of "high-conviction high."
70
Confidence 70% · base 68 → adj 70
Lifecycle & sector: Healthcare / Biotechnology — life-science tools & MRD clinical diagnostics. Lifecycle = High-Growth (revenue +35% YoY, gross margin >70%, not yet profitable). Macro sensitivity = Low → timing macro weight 10%.
| Sub-signal | Value | Benchmark | Score | Rationale |
|---|
| Revenue trajectory | +35% YoY (Q1'26 $70.9M vs $52.4M) | Dx peers ~10–20% | 80 | MRD segment +53% YoY and now >75% of revenue. Note Q3'25's $94M was milestone-inflated; underlying organic growth ~35–45%. |
| Gross margin | 73–75% TTM | Lab Dx 50–65% | 78 | Well above lab-diagnostics norms and rising as clonoSEQ volume scales — strong unit economics. |
| Cash generation | FCF ~breakeven (−$0.19/sh TTM) | Positive = healthy | 60 | Not yet positive, but inflecting hard; management guides company FCF-positive by end-2026. MRD segment already adj-EBITDA positive. |
| Balance-sheet health | ~$218M cash · current ratio 3.4 | >2.0 strong | 75 | Ample runway (>2 yrs even before breakeven), minimal net debt. Survivable through a downturn. |
| Net-loss trend | 2024 −$159.6M → 2025 −$59.5M | Narrowing = good | 74 | ~63% reduction in annual loss while growing 35–55% — operating leverage is real. |
Competitive Moat Scorecard — average 63
Pricing Power
55
Reimbursement-gated; clinical value & Medicare expansions help.
Network Effects
60
Guideline inclusion, pharma data partnerships, growing clinical footprint.
Switching Costs
70
Longitudinal lock-in — baseline clone must be tracked on the same assay over time.
Cost Advantage
55
Sequencing scale & immune-medicine platform; partly replicable.
Intangible Assets
75
First/only FDA-cleared MRD test across several blood cancers; IP + regulatory moat.
ROIC & Capital Allocation / Management — 50
ROIC is negative (company is pre-profit), so the standard high-ROIC quality test fails on the number but is offset by a sharply improving trajectory and external validation (Genentech, Microsoft, Pfizer). Founder-led (CEO Chad Robins) with meaningful insider ownership, though insiders have sold steadily in 2026 — all under pre-arranged 10b5-1 / option-exercise plans (see §2). Stock-based comp is elevated and share count rose ~5.7% YoY — the main quality drag.
Industry Benchmark — Rule-of-40 analog (high-growth Dx)
Revenue growth ~35% + FCF margin ~−2% ≈ 33. Rating: APPROACHING (<40 threshold) — growth is excellent and the margin side is closing the gap toward a pass as FCF turns positive. Benchmark score 58/100. Context: most pre-profit Dx names score in the 20s; ADPT's combination of 35% growth and a near-term breakeven inflection is upper-quartile for the cohort.
FMP cross-reference divergence: FMP's financial-health rating is D+ (1/5), with every sub-score (DCF, ROE, ROA, D/E, P/E, P/B) at the floor. That model penalises negative earnings and high price-to-book — structurally misleading for a high-growth, pre-profit diagnostics company. The divergence from our Quality 70 is expected and informative: FMP scores the current P&L; our pillar scores the business and its trajectory.
4
Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness
A deep dive into the Valuation score: EV/Revenue against peers and history, reverse-DCF implied growth, the analyst consensus target with upside math, the grades distribution, embedded "free upside," and the FMP cross-reference. P/E and FCF yield are N/A (pre-profit), so EV/Revenue and the reverse-DCF carry the weight.
Valuation Attractiveness — Pillar Score
Fair, at the upper edge — the in-production core is fully (not cheaply) priced at ~10x revenue, but ~22% upside to a (stale) $21.33 consensus and credible un-priced optionality cushion the downside.
61
Confidence 72% · base 60 → adj 61
| Lens | Reading | Score | Interpretation |
|---|
| EV/Revenue (primary) | ~10x on ~$285M run-rate revenue (EV ~$2.84B) | 55 | Full but not extreme for a 35% grower with 75% gross margin. Note TTM ($295M) is inflated by the Q3'25 milestone — multiple is a touch higher on a clean run-rate base. |
| Reverse-DCF implied growth | Market prices ~20–25% sustained growth + eventual mid-teens FCF margins | 58 | Roughly in line with the ~22%/yr 2027+ consensus path. Fairly priced on the core; not a deep-value setup, not a bubble. |
| FCF yield (universal anchor) | ~0% (breakeven) | N/A | Not yet a positive cash anchor — value rests on the forward trajectory, so the other lenses are weighted up. |
| Analyst price target (10%) | Consensus $21.33 (high $22 / low $21 / median $21) | 65 | $17.46 is ~22% below consensus → normally an attractive 70–84 signal, haircut to ~65 because targets are stale (0 fresh in the last quarter; last-year avg $20.83 from 6 analysts). |
| Grades consensus (5%) | 11 Buy · 4 Hold · 2 Sell (17) — 65% bullish | 52 | "Buy" consensus but with >30% holds+sells — solid, not unanimous. |
Embedded Optionality / Free Upside
At ~$17.46 you are paying ~10x revenue for the in-production MRD/immunoSEQ business; the following are valued at close to zero today and come "for free":
- Pfizer agreements (Dec 2025): two non-exclusive deals with up to ~$890M of potential milestone payments for immune-driven therapeutic research — largely un-modelled in consensus.
- Genentech collaboration: co-development of neoantigen-directed TCR cell therapies — a clinical-pipeline call option carried at ~$0.
- Microsoft partnership: multi-disease early-detection from a single blood sample — a long-dated, high-payoff platform option.
- TAM expansion: MRD into solid tumors / new indications atop a US MRD market growing ~9–11%/yr.
Net framing: the core business justifies roughly the current ~$2.7B; the partnership & pipeline optionality is the un-priced upside. This is a +5 tilt (already in the 61), not a re-rating — it raises conviction that downside is cushioned, but the core itself is not "cheap."
5
Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers
The dominant external force ADPT is tethered to, scored 0–100 for tailwind/headwind strength across history, current state, and forward outlook. The driver score asymmetrically nudges the three pillars before the matrix. This section also names the thesis-invalidation floor — the level at which the whole case breaks.
| Horizon (weight) | Read | Score |
|---|
| Historical (25%) | MRD volume/revenue compounding 40–53% over the past 1–2 years; Medicare coverage expansions; NCCN/guideline traction. | 80 |
| Current (50%) | MRD >75% of revenue, +53% YoY, segment adj-EBITDA positive; guided to company FCF-positive by end-2026. Offset: Natera/Foresight entering blood-cancer MRD raises competition. | 70 |
| Forward (25%) | US MRD market ~9–11%/yr CAGR with ADPT taking share into new indications; competition rising but franchise is FDA-cleared. | 68 |
Driver score = 80×0.25 + 70×0.50 + 68×0.25 = 72 → "Tailwind." Pillar adjustments: Quality +2 (68→70), Valuation +1 (60→61), Timing +4 (59→63). Driver confidence 62% (−8 indirect/competitive uncertainty).
Thesis-invalidation floor: if MRD volume growth decelerates below ~20%, or Natera/competitors visibly take share and compress clonoSEQ pricing, or the end-2026 FCF-breakeven slips into 2027+, the driver flips toward Headwind and the BUY thesis breaks.
6
Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment
How the current economic climate sits relative to this specific stock, read from the latest Macro-Economic report (2026-06-13). It classifies a long entry as Trend-Following (riding a tailwind) or Contrarian (fighting a headwind) with a 0–100 conviction. This is an independent lens — it does not change the BUY/HOLD/SELL signal.
Source: sector-map (ADPT is not yet in the macro watchlist) → GICS Healthcare = XLV: Short Outperform · Medium Outperform · Long Neutral, from the Driver-Sector Impact Matrix in the MacroDriver report dated 2026-06-13. Dominant regime: Stagflation (oil shock + hawkish Fed) — scenario weights Stagflation 44 / Deflationary Bust 26 / Soft Landing 18 / Reacceleration 12.
Why Neutral, not Trend-Following: the headline XLV "Outperform" is a defensive flight-to-safety bid on large-cap pharma/staples-like healthcare in a risk-off regime. ADPT is the opposite profile — a beta-2.15, unprofitable, rate-sensitive growth name that trades like a risk-on asset. The stagflation + hawkish-Fed + deflationary-bust-tilted regime is a headwind for speculative growth. The sector tailwind and the growth-factor headwind roughly offset → net Neutral, conviction 50. A long here is neither clearly riding nor clearly fighting the macro; the case rests on company execution, not the economic tape. Confidence 55% (macro report fresh at 2 days). This lens does not move the signal.
7
Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing
A deep dive into the Timing score: the risk-reward framework anchored to the stop, relative strength vs SPY and XLV, the macro overlay at a Low sector weight (10%), news-derived sentiment, and the 0–12 month catalyst cluster. Read this to understand when to act — even a good business at a fair price can be a poor entry the day before a Fed meeting.
Entry/Exit Timing — Pillar Score
Constructive but extended. Monthly/weekly/daily are all in confirmed uptrends + resistance breakouts above every key MA — but price sits ~2 ATR above the breakout support after a run from $12.4, so a fresh entry here chases rather than buys weakness.
63
Confidence 68% · base 59 → adj 63
| Component (weight) | Reading | Score |
|---|
| MTF trend (30%) | Monthly/weekly/daily uptrend + resistance breakout, price > SMA50 ($14.57) > SMA200 ($15.38). Intraday TFs bearish but computed off illiquid after-hours prints — down-weighted (see §9). | 73 |
| Risk-reward (20%) | $17.46 is ~2 ATR (ATR $1.15) above the $15.0–15.6 breakout/200-DMA support; nearest resistance $18.29 then $19.8/$20.76. Good trend, mediocre fresh-entry RR. | 52 |
| Macro overlay (10%) | Fed on hold/easing (3.63%), VIX 17.7 & falling, curve normal (+0.40) — but FOMC 17 Jun and a stagflation/risk-off regime for growth. | 50 |
| Sentiment (20%) | Analyst grades all "maintain" last 30d (MS EW, Guggenheim/TD Cowen/BTIG Buy, JPM OW); news mixed — routine insider sales + Natera competition vs Pfizer milestone & MRD leadership. | 50 |
| Catalyst cluster (20%) | Earnings ~Aug (calm); ASCO/EHA data already out; one near-term macro event (FOMC 17 Jun). Clustering ~55. | 58 |
Relative strength: ADPT is up ~57–70% over the trailing year and ~+20% over three months, outperforming both SPY and XLV — a clear leader, currently consolidating the June 11 spike ($19.5 intraday) back to $17.46. Carry-through RS score ~78 feeds the short-term signal.
8
Economic Event Risk
The next ~14 days of high-impact macro releases that could swing the tape, plus the last 7 days of surprises. ADPT is a Low macro-sensitivity name, so no WAIT-for-event override is applied — but the 17 Jun FOMC is a market-wide risk-on/off switch that a beta-2.15 growth stock will feel second-hand.
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast / Prev | Relevant? | Why |
|---|
| 17 Jun | FOMC Rate Decision + Economic Projections | High | Hold ~3.75% / 3.75% | ⚠️ Indirect | Sets the risk appetite for high-beta growth; a hawkish surprise pressures rate-sensitive names like ADPT. |
| 16 Jun | Housing Starts / Building Permits (May) | High | 1.43M / 1.465M | No | Housing-specific — not relevant to a Dx name. |
| 17 Jun | Retail Sales (May) | Medium | +0.4% / +0.5% | No | Consumer signal — minimal read-through. |
Recent surprises (last 7 days)
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Read |
|---|
| 12 Jun | Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jun) | 48.9 | 46.0 | Beat — mild risk-on. |
| 12 Jun | Michigan 1-yr Inflation Expectations | 4.6% | 4.9% | Cooler — supportive for growth multiples. |
| 15 Jun | NY Empire State Manufacturing (Jun) | 5.7 | 14.0 | Big miss — softening growth feeds the stagflation regime read. |
Net: the only event that matters for ADPT in the next two weeks is the 17 Jun FOMC, two days out. Cooler inflation expectations are a small tailwind for growth valuations, but a soft Empire State print and the stagflation regime keep the macro backdrop mixed. This supports holding short-term rather than chasing into the meeting.
9
Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis
Trend, RSI, MACD and breakout status across five timeframes plus a confluence verdict. Higher timeframes carry more weight; the intraday rows are flagged because they were computed off illiquid after-hours prints and should be discounted.
| Timeframe | Trend | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend ↑ | 60 | +, rising | S: $12.0 · R: $20.76 | Resistance breakout | 0.8x |
| Weekly | Uptrend ↑ | 59 | +, rising | S: $13.28 · R: $19.8 | Resistance breakout | 0.3x |
| Daily | Uptrend ↑ | 62 | +, rising | S: $15.06 / SMA200 $15.38 · R: $18.29 | Resistance breakout | 1.4x |
| Hourly * | Weakening → | 30 | −, falling | S: $15.50 · R: $17.87 | Support breakdown * | 0.04x * |
| 15-min * | Downtrend ↓ | 40 | −, flat | S: $15.50 · R: $17.83 | Support breakdown * | 0.03x * |
| Confluence: Bullish — MTF trend score ≈ 73 (higher-timeframe weighting M35/W30/D35, intraday discounted) |
* The hourly and 15-min rows have volume ratios of 0.03–0.04 — they are after-hours/illiquid noise prints, the same prints that produced a spurious "−8% to $16.18" tick. The official regular-session close is $17.46 (volume 2.85M). Stripping that noise, the real picture is clean: monthly, weekly and daily are all in confirmed uptrends and resistance breakouts above every key moving average — a healthy consolidation of the June 11 spike, not a breakdown. Watch the $15.0–15.6 zone (prior breakout + 200-DMA) as the high-probability re-entry support.
10
Price Chart (6-Month Daily)
A 6-month daily close line with the SMA50 and key support/resistance overlaid — the visual companion to the MTF table. You can see the March trough near $12.4, the recovery and June breakout, and the support band the stock would pull back into.
11
Scenario Summary
Bull, Base and Bear 12-month price paths with explicit triggers and probability weights. The base case is the probability-weighted centre of gravity; bull and bear show what must change for each tail.
Bull · 30% · $22.50 (+29%)
MRD growth re-accelerates >45%, company hits FCF-positive ahead of plan, a Pfizer/Genentech milestone is recognised, and the multiple re-rates toward 11–12x revenue. Risk-on macro after a dovish Fed helps high-beta growth.
Base · 45% · $19.00 (+9%)
Steady 25–30% MRD growth, FCF breakeven by end-2026 as guided, share holds vs new entrants. Modest re-rate plus delivery on numbers; trades around fair value $18.50 with upward drift.
Bear · 25% · $13.00 (−26%)
Natera/Foresight take share or compress pricing, growth-stock de-rating in a deepening stagflation/risk-off tape, and dilution continues. Breaks the breakout, retraces to weekly support ($13.28).
Probability-weighted 12-mo expected value ≈ 0.30×22.50 + 0.45×19.00 + 0.25×13.00 ≈ $18.55 — about +6% from $17.46, with a wide ±$5 band. The asymmetry is balanced-to-slightly-positive, which is why the medium/long signals are BUY but the short-term is HOLD (don't pay up for that EV right before the Fed).
12
Entry / Exit Rules
Mechanical conditions for entry and exit, specific enough to set alerts on. Entries require multiple independent checks; exits are governed by a hard stop, thesis invalidation, and scaled profit-takes. Below the rules, a "what if I act now?" thought-experiment frames acting at today's price as a risk/reward trade-off.
Entry Rule 1 — Pullback to support (preferred)
BUY if price pulls back into $15.50–16.00 (prior breakout + 200-DMA $15.38) AND holds it on a daily close AND no earnings within 7 days.
Forecast: plausible within 2–6 weeks — a normal consolidation or a hawkish-Fed dip would reach it; a continued melt-up would not.
Entry Rule 2 — Breakout continuation
BUY a daily close above $18.29 (nearest daily resistance) on volume > 1.5× 20-day average AND RSI still < 70.
Forecast: catalyst-dependent — most likely on a strong Q2 print (Aug) or a dovish Fed.
Entry Rule 3 — Catalyst confirmation
BUY if a post-earnings move is > +5% with raised MRD guidance AND volume > 2× average.
Forecast: ~early Aug 2026 (Q2 earnings) — company has beaten/raised in recent quarters.
Exit Rule 1 — Hard stop
SELL if price closes below $14.90 (below the $15.06 swing low / 200-DMA, ~2.1 ATR) for 2 consecutive days — the breakout has failed.
Exit Rule 2 — Thesis invalidation
SELL if MRD revenue growth decelerates below ~20% AND the end-2026 FCF-breakeven guide is pushed out AND competition is visibly taking share.
Exit Rule 3 — Profit target / trim
Trim into $21–22 (analyst consensus / median) if RSI > 70 and Quality hasn't improved enough to justify the higher multiple.
Key levels: Fair value est. $18.50 · Support $15.38 (200-DMA) / $15.06 / $13.28 (weekly) · Resistance $18.29 / $19.80 / $20.76 · Stop $14.90 · Targets: base $19.00, bull $22.50, bear $13.00.
Imagine you act at the current price $17.46 · as of 15 Jun 2026 close
What if you bought now?
You'd be risking −$2.56 (−14.7%) to the $14.90 stop to gain +$1.54 (+9%) base / +$5.04 (+29%) bull.
- Risking: downside to stop $14.90 (−14.7%); bear case $13.00 (−26%); plus — entry rules NOT yet met: you'd be buying ~2 ATR above the $15.5–16 support zone and two days ahead of the FOMC.
- Gaining: base $19.00 (+9%) · bull $22.50 (+29%); plus the ~$890M Pfizer milestone, Genentech and Microsoft optionality you'd own for free, and a trend that's above every key MA.
- Net: risk-reward to base only ~0.6:1 but to bull ~2.0:1. Read: the medium-term thesis is sound, but acting at this exact price chases an extended move — waiting for the $15.5–16 zone materially improves the deal.
What if you sold now?
You'd be giving up +9% base / +29% bull upside to protect against the −26% bear path.
- Giving up: base-case upside to $19.00 (+9%) and the consensus $21+ path; the partnership/pipeline optionality; you'd be selling slightly below fair value $18.50.
- Protecting: capital if the bear case ($13.00) plays out and the ~52% peak-to-trough volatility this name has shown. Exit rules currently triggered? None — no stop, profit-take, or thesis break is active.
- Net: no mechanical reason to sell. For a holder this is a hold/accumulate-on-weakness zone, not an exit.
13
Position Sizing Context
A framework for translating conviction into allocation given risk per share and volatility. Illustrative only — not advice.
Position size not computed — no portfolio allocation or role was specified. Provide your intended allocation and whether this is a core or satellite position for sizing guidance.
| Volatility context | Value | Meaning |
|---|
| Daily ATR | ~$1.15 (~6.6% of price) | Large daily swings — a normal day moves ~7%; size accordingly. |
| Beta vs SPY | 2.15 | A 5% position carries the market-risk of a ~10.8% position. |
| Trailing-year range | $9.96 → $20.76 | ~52% peak-to-trough drawdown capacity over the past year. |
Given the volatility and the extended entry, a staggered entry (e.g. tranches at current, $16, and $15.3) reduces timing risk versus going all-in at $17.46.
14
Calibration Snapshot
A machine-readable snapshot of every score, confidence, key level and signal override, saved alongside the HTML as calibration-ADPT-20260615-1915.json so the next run can compute deltas. This is ADPT's first report — no prior calibration to diff against.
{
"ticker": "ADPT",
"exchange_ticker": "NASDAQ:ADPT",
"isin": "US00650F1093",
"date": "2026-06-15",
"version": "v6",
"user_context": { "horizon": "all", "allocation_pct": null, "portfolio_role": null },
"price_at_rating": 17.46,
"signal_short": "HOLD",
"signal_medium": "BUY_ACCUMULATE",
"signal_long": "BUY",
"primary_signal": "BUY_ACCUMULATE",
"quality_score": 70,
"lifecycle_stage": "high_growth",
"quality_detail": {
"industry_benchmark_name": "Rule-of-40 analog (high-growth Dx)",
"industry_benchmark_value": 33,
"industry_benchmark_score": 58,
"moat_score": 63,
"roic_percentile_vs_peers": null,
"management_skin_in_game": 50
},
"valuation_score": 61,
"valuation_detail": {
"ev_revenue_x": 10.0,
"fcf_yield": 0.0,
"implied_growth_rate": 22.0,
"consensus_growth_rate": 22.0,
"historical_valuation_decile": 6
},
"timing_score": 63,
"timing_detail": {
"mtf_confluence": 73,
"risk_reward_score": 52,
"relative_strength_vs_spy": "outperform",
"relative_strength_vs_sector": "outperform",
"catalyst_clustering_score": 55,
"dynamic_macro_weight": 0.10
},
"driver_score": 72,
"driver_label": "Tailwind",
"economic_alignment_stance": "Neutral",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 50,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Neutral",
"economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
"macro_report_date": "2026-06-13",
"overall_confidence": 68,
"fair_value_est": 18.50,
"stop_loss": 14.90,
"target_price": 19.00,
"target_bull": 22.50,
"target_bear": 13.00,
"analyst_consensus_target": 21.33,
"analyst_target_high": 22.0,
"analyst_target_low": 21.0,
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 22.2,
"analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
"analyst_bullish_pct": 64.7,
"analyst_coverage_count": 17,
"fmp_rating": "D+",
"fmp_overall_score": 1,
"recent_upgrades_30d": 0,
"recent_downgrades_30d": 0,
"gates_triggered": [],
"gates_caution": ["dilution_sbc"],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"next_check_date": "2026-07-15"
}
15
Data Sources & Methodology
A full audit trail of every data source used, with OK / partial / fail indicators and the confidence haircuts applied. Consult this to understand why confidence is below the raw composite.
Data Source Status
✓
get_company_profile — OK (ADPT; ADTP returned not-found)
✓
get_financial_ratios — OK (TTM ratios)
✓
get_income_statement — OK (6 quarters)
✓
get_multi_timeframe_analysis — OK (intraday rows are illiquid — discounted)
✓
get_stock_prices / get_previous_day_bar — OK (confirmed $17.46 close)
✓
get_price_target_consensus — OK ($21.33; stale, 0 fresh last qtr)
✓
get_grades_consensus / get_stock_grades — OK (11B/4H/2S; all maintain 30d)
✓
get_ratings_snapshot — OK (D+ — profitability-biased)
⚠
get_analyst_estimates — PARTIAL (revenue/EPS usable; EBITDA figures are erroneous, excluded)
✓
get_polygon_news — OK (15 articles w/ sentiment)
✓
get_economic_calendar / get_key_economic_indicators — OK (FOMC 17 Jun flagged)
✗
get_earnings_calendar — empty; next earnings (~Aug) inferred from filing cadence
Impact on scores: Valuation confidence held at 72% (not higher) because analyst price targets are stale (no fresh issue in the last quarter) and the estimate EBITDA series is unusable — forward revenue/EPS and the consensus target still anchor the pillar. Timing confidence 68% reflects reliable daily/weekly/monthly data but unreliable (illiquid) intraday rows. Driver confidence 62% reflects the indirect, competition-sensitive driver relationship. No source failure forced a section to be dropped.
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.