Changes since 20 Jul 2026
Signals unchanged: Short HOLD · Medium BUY · Long STRONG BUY. Price C$49.07 → C$53.99 (+10.0%) on an oversold bounce. Timing 40 → 46 (daily MACD turning up, intraday uptrends) but still Neutral. Driver 61 → 62 — gold now basing (deceleration to −2.7%/4wk) rather than actively breaking down, though still below a falling 50-DMA (no short amplification). Hard-gate state clear → caution as Q2 earnings (10 Aug) entered the 7-day window; entry conviction Half-Size → Wait accordingly.
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Barrick Mining Corporation
Barrick Mining Corporation (formerly Barrick Gold) is one of the world's largest gold producers, with a growing copper business, operating a portfolio of long-life, low-cost mines anchored by Tier-1 assets such as Nevada Gold Mines (a joint venture with Newmont), Pueblo Viejo (Dominican Republic), Kibali (DRC) and Loulo-Gounkoto (Mali). Its core business is finding, mining and processing gold and copper ore into refined metal sold into global markets, funding a dividend and buyback from the cash it throws off. What sets Barrick apart is the scale and grade of its Tier-1 reserve base and a bottom-half-of-the-curve all-in sustaining cost, which lets it stay strongly cash-generative through the price cycle; the trade-off is geographic and geopolitical concentration (notably an ongoing dispute with the government of Mali) and a copper-growth pivot that is still proving itself. For a reader, think of it as a low-cost, Tier-1 gold-and-copper major whose edge is asset quality and cash generation rather than production growth.
| Horizon | Signal | Composite Score | Confidence | Key Driver |
|---|
| Short-term (1–3 mo) | HOLD | 50 | 55% | Base BUY capped — technical confirmation pending; earnings 10 Aug inside 7-day fundamental blackout |
| Medium-term (6–12 mo) | BUY | 63 | 60% | Attractive valuation + gold basing turns to a medium tailwind |
| Long-term (3–5 yr) | STRONG BUY | 72 | 65% | Tier-1 quality + structural gold bull + Materials Strong-Outperform amplify |
Next update: 2026-08-11 — Q2 earnings 10 Aug 2026 +1 day
1
Five-Pillar Scorecard
Five independent scores — each 0–100 with its own confidence. The three fundamental pillars (Quality / Valuation / Timing) set the base BUY/HOLD/SELL via the Decision Matrix; the two context pillars (Underlying Drivers, Economic Alignment) then amplify a BUY to STRONG BUY or a SELL to STRONG SELL when both corroborate.
Business Quality
78
strong
conf 80%
Valuation Attractiveness
65
attractive
conf 75%
Entry/Exit Timing
46
neutral
conf 60%
Underlying Drivers
62
gold basing — mild tailwind
conf 70%
Economic Alignment
64
Trend-Following
conf 70%
2
Hard Gates & Do-Not-Buy Status
Binary safety checks — any TRIGGERED gate is a hard cap regardless of the scores above; CAUTION gates are sizing notes.
✅Financial Distress
Net cash; current ratio 3.06; interest coverage ~33x. No distress.
⚠️Earnings-Event Caution
Q2 earnings 10 Aug 2026 — inside the 7-day window. Short-term entries deferred until after the print; event risk both ways.
✅Valuation Ceiling
Actual ~10.6x vs warranted ~12.5x P/E (ratio ~0.85) — Attractive, well below the 1.4 Expensive ceiling. No cap.
✅Quantification / Data Integrity
Full FMP + Yahoo coverage; producer with audited financials and consensus targets. No estimation gaps.
✅Do-Not-Buy Triggers
None live. Gold spot (~US$4,000) sits far above AISC (~US$1,720); no thesis-breaking operational or balance-sheet trigger.
Hard-gate state: CAUTION (earnings-event). The only active gate is the Q2 print on 10 Aug, which defers short-term entry timing but does not touch the medium/long thesis. No Do-Not-Buy trigger is live.
3
Pillar Detail: Business Quality
A deep dive into the Quality score: business economics, moat, ROIC and the industry benchmark.
Business Quality — Pillar Score
Tier-1, low-cost, net-cash gold major — strong quality, but ceding share to a premium-rated Agnico and carrying a Mali overhang.
78
conf 80% · base 78 → adj 78
Barrick is a mature, cash-cow cyclical — a Tier-1 gold-and-copper major whose quality rests on asset grade, cost position and a fortress balance sheet rather than growth. On trailing-twelve-month data the business screens strongly across every core dimension.
| Metric (TTM) | Value | Read |
|---|
| Net margin | ~32% | High-margin producer at current spot |
| Operating margin | ~56% | Bottom-half-of-curve cost base |
| Return on equity | ~25% | Strong through-cycle returns |
| Interest coverage | ~33x | Debt trivially serviced |
| Current ratio | 3.06 | Ample near-term liquidity |
| Balance sheet | Net cash | ~C$7.1B cash vs ~C$4.7B debt |
| FCF yield | ~8.5% | Real cash return at current spot |
| AISC margin | ~57% of spot | AISC ~US$1,720 vs spot ~US$4,000 |
Benchmark: Against senior-gold peers Barrick's cost position, net-cash balance sheet and FCF yield are best-in-cohort; where it lags is production growth and a premium market rating (Agnico), and it carries above-average geopolitical concentration (Mali dispute, DRC).
Cost Advantage
82
Bottom-half AISC, Tier-1 grade
Intangible Assets
75
Irreplaceable Tier-1 reserves
Switching Costs
30
Commodity — price-taker
Pricing Power
15
Takes the gold price
Competitive Environment
Share trajectory: LOSING (competitive threat: moderate). Barrick competes head-to-head with the other gold seniors for capital, reserves and production leadership. It is ceding relative standing — Agnico Eagle now commands a premium multiple on cleaner jurisdiction and consistent delivery, while the Mali overhang and copper-pivot execution risk have kept Barrick's rating and production trajectory under pressure. Not a share loss in a product-market sense (gold is fungible) but a loss of the premium rating and production leadership that a senior earns.
| Direct rival | Position vs Barrick | Trajectory |
|---|
| Newmont (NEM) | Largest gold major; JV partner in Nevada Gold Mines | Comparable scale; both re-rating on cost discipline |
| Agnico Eagle (AEM) | Premium-rated, low-risk-jurisdiction senior | Gaining — commands the sector premium |
| Kinross (K) | Smaller mid-senior, improving FCF | Stable; less direct on Tier-1 assets |
ROIC: Through-cycle returns on capital are strong at current spot (ROE ~25%, high operating margin), but capital intensity and reserve-replacement cost mean the quality score is anchored below the 80s despite the metrics — cyclicality and price-taker status cap it.
4
Pillar Detail: Valuation Attractiveness
Sector-appropriate multiples, FCF yield, reverse-DCF implied growth, embedded optionality, and the analyst-consensus cross-check.
Valuation Attractiveness — Pillar Score
Attractive — trades at a discount to a warranted producer multiple and ~22% below the mean analyst target.
65
conf 75% · base 65 → adj 65
On a computed warranted-multiple basis Barrick is Attractive. Anchoring a two-stage view to a 10-year yield of 4.75% plus a 4.5% equity-risk premium gives a discount rate r ≈ 9.25%; with haircut near-term growth g ≈ 6% and a sector guardrail, the warranted producer P/E lands around 12.5x. The stock trades at ~10.6x trailing (~8.7x forward), so actual ÷ warranted ≈ 0.85 — a discount, comfortably inside the Attractive band and far from the 1.4 Expensive ceiling.
| Multiple | Value | Read |
|---|
| Forward P/E | 8.7x | Cheap for a net-cash Tier-1 major |
| Trailing P/E | 10.6x | Below warranted ~12.5x |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.25x | Undemanding vs history |
| P/NAV | ~0.75x | Discount to net asset value |
| FCF yield | ~8.5% | Real cash return at spot |
| Warranted P/E | ~12.5x | r 9.25% · g 6% · sector-guarded |
| Actual ÷ warranted | ~0.85 | Attractive band |
Consensus cross-check: 12-analyst mean target C$65.73 (+21.7% from C$53.99); median C$67.5; range C$31.5–C$90.4; grades consensus Buy (~75% bullish). The discount-to-NAV and discount-to-target both corroborate the Attractive read.
Caveat: a producer multiple is spot-sensitive — the cheapness is real only if gold holds near current levels. That risk is carried in the driver and scenario sections, not double-counted here.
5
Pillar Detail: Underlying Drivers
The dominant external force the stock is tethered to, scored 0–100. A context pillar: it does not change the base signal — it feeds amplification (tailwind ≥65 can lift BUY→STRONG BUY; headwind ≤35 can push SELL→STRONG SELL).
The dominant driver is the gold price. GLD sits at 371.71 — below a still-falling 50-DMA (~386) and below its 200-DMA — but the decline is decelerating: −2.7% over four weeks versus −6.4% over eight. Gold is basing after a pullback rather than breaking down, with spot (~US$4,000) still enormously above Barrick's ~US$1,720 AISC and a structural bid from central-bank buying and safe-haven demand intact.
| Horizon | Driver read | Effect |
|---|
| Short (1–3 mo) | Price below falling 50-DMA; basing but no confirmed uptrend | Neutral / mild headwind — NO short amplification |
| Medium (3–12 mo) | Deceleration + structural bid → base-and-turn setup | Tailwind (~64) |
| Long (12 mo+) | De-dollarisation, CB accumulation, real-rate path | Tailwind (~72) |
Amplification (circularity-guarded): because gold's technical trend is not yet confirmed up, the driver does not amplify the short horizon. It does add to medium and long, where the structural case and Materials Strong-Outperform combine to support the Long STRONG BUY.
6
Pillar Detail: Economic Alignment
How the current economic climate sits relative to this stock, read from the latest Macro-Economic report. Classifies the macro pressure (Tailwind / Neutral / Headwind) — the second amplification input — and frames a long entry as Trend-Following or Contrarian with a 0–100 conviction.
The latest macro sector map has Materials (XLB) at Outperform / Outperform / Strong-Outperform across Short/Medium/Long. A long BUY on a Materials name is trend-following, and the Long Strong-Outperform provides the amplification that lifts the long horizon to STRONG BUY. Short horizon carries no econ amplification (earnings-event caution dominates).
Source: sector-map (Materials / XLB) · Macro report 2026-07-20
7
Pillar Detail: Entry/Exit Timing
The risk-reward framework, relative strength vs SPY and the sector ETF, the macro overlay, news-derived sentiment, and the catalyst cluster.
Entry/Exit Timing — Pillar Score
Neutral — oversold bounce underway but weekly/daily still below trend; confirmation pending.
46
conf 60% · base 46 → adj 46
Timing is Neutral. The lower timeframes are in an oversold bounce — 15m and 1H uptrends, daily MACD histogram turning positive — but weekly and daily price remains below the 50- and 200-DMA. The setup is a base attempting to turn, not a confirmed reversal.
Confirmation needed: a daily close back above the ~C$55–56 pivot (reclaiming the 50-DMA) on above-average volume, OR a tested higher low off the C$49 base, would confirm the turn. Until then short-term entries are premature — and the 10 Aug earnings print sits inside the window, adding two-way event risk.
8
Economic Event Risk
High-impact macro releases in the next 14 days that could swing this stock, plus the last 7 days of surprises.
Upcoming events (next 30 days)
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|
| 10 Aug 2026 | Barrick Q2 2026 earnings | High | EPS ~US$0.55e | — | Yes | Direct — sets the near-term tape; inside the 7-day fundamental blackout, so short entries deferred |
| Mid-Aug 2026 | US CPI | Medium | — | — | Yes | Real-rate path drives gold; a hot print is a headwind |
| 17 Sep 2026 | FOMC decision | High | — | — | Yes | Rate path and USD direction move gold and the whole complex |
Recent surprises (last 7 days)
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|
| 29 Jul 2026 | FOMC decision | Held | Held | In line | Neutral |
| Late Jul 2026 | US PCE | In line | In line | None | Neutral |
The binding near-term event is Barrick's own Q2 print on 10 Aug — high-impact and inside the blackout, which is why the short horizon holds. Beyond it, CPI and the September FOMC set gold's real-rate backdrop.
9
Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis
Trend, RSI and breakout status across monthly / weekly / daily / hourly / 15-minute, with a confluence verdict.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|
| Monthly | Uptrend | Up | 54 | + | Above LT support | Intact | Avg |
| Weekly | Downtrend | Down | 44 | − | Below 50-DMA | No | Avg |
| Daily | Basing | Flat | 49 | Turning + | Below 50/200-DMA | Attempting | Rising |
| 4-Hour | Recovering | Up | 56 | + | Reclaiming pivot | Attempting | Avg |
| 1-Hour | Uptrend | Up | 62 | + | Above intraday support | Yes | Rising |
| 15-Min | Uptrend | Up | 64 | + | Higher highs | Yes | Rising |
| Confluence: Mixed — intraday bounce against a still-negative weekly/daily structure · MTF Score 51 |
The picture is genuinely mixed. Lower timeframes (15m/1H) are in a clean oversold bounce with the daily MACD histogram turning positive, but weekly and daily price is still below the 50- and 200-DMA. This is a base-and-attempt-to-turn, not a confirmed trend reversal — which is exactly why the short horizon requires technical confirmation before an entry.
10
Price Chart (6-Month Daily)
A 6-month daily close line with SMA50 and key support/resistance — the visual companion to the MTF table.
TSX:ABX ~6-month daily (C$). Bounce off the C$49 low back toward the falling 50-DMA; weekly structure still below trend. Levels: stop/bear C$44, recent low C$49, resistance C$60, fair value ~C$65.
11
Scenario Summary
Bull / Base / Bear 12-month price paths with triggers and probability weights.
Bull C$82 (25%)
Gold breaks decisively higher (real rates fall / renewed CB and safe-haven bid), the Mali overhang eases, and Barrick re-rates toward the senior peer group. FCF and buybacks accelerate; ~+52% from C$53.99.
Base C$68 (50%)
Gold holds near current spot and bases, Barrick delivers in line on Q2, and the ~0.85 warranted-ratio discount plus the P/NAV gap closes partway toward the C$65.7 mean target. ~+26% from C$53.99.
Bear C$44 (25%)
Gold rolls over below its base as real rates rise, an operational or Mali setback bites, and the producer multiple compresses with spot. ~−18% from C$53.99 — the hard-stop zone.
Probability-weighted fair value ≈ C$65.5 (0.25·82 + 0.50·68 + 0.25·44), roughly in line with the C$65.7 mean analyst target and the ~C$65 warranted fair value — ~+21% from C$53.99, with a base most probable.
12
Entry / Exit Rules
Three independent entry paths (Fundamental · Technical · Catalyst) and three exit triggers (Stop-Loss · Thesis · Profit-Target). Any one entry path is a valid entry — the more that agree, the larger the position the conviction ladder suggests. Exits are graded by severity, not count.
How to read this — the Conviction Ladder
The three entry groups are alternative paths to a buy, not a checklist. A group counts only when all its sub-conditions hold. How many groups are satisfied sets the suggested size — it does not gate whether you may enter: 1 group = Half-Size (a valid starter/scale-in), 2 = Full-Size, 3 = Over-Size (highest conviction); 0 = Wait (no path open yet). A strong overall signal can still read Wait here when the stock is well above its entry zones — that flags "good business, no entry edge right now," not a contradiction. Exits are graded by severity of what is live, not by a count: a hard stop is an Exit on its own.
Entry conviction: Wait0 of 3 groups met — no entry path open
Fundamental — not MET
Valuation and driver support are in place, but Q2 earnings fall inside the 7-day blackout — the fundamental path is blocked for now.
✅ Price C$53.99 < fair value ~C$65 (Attractive, ratio ~0.85)
⛔ No earnings within 7 days
✅ Underlying-Driver score ≥ 50 (62)
Technical — not MET
Intraday bounce only; weekly/daily still below the 50-DMA. Preferred entry is a reclaim OR a tested higher low.
⛔ Daily close > 50-DMA (~C$55–56) on >1.5x volume
⛔ OR a tested higher low off the C$49 base
✅ RSI 35–65 (daily ~49)
Catalyst — not MET
Q2 earnings 10 Aug is a pending catalyst, not yet a confirmed positive move.
· Post-earnings move >+5% with guidance intact/raised
Forecast: Entry conviction WAIT (0/3 groups met). The fastest path is the 10 Aug earnings print: a clean beat with an in-line/raised outlook that holds a >+5% move would satisfy the Catalyst group and likely the Technical reclaim within ~1–2 weeks; absent that, wait for a daily reclaim of the ~C$55–56 pivot or a tested higher low off C$49.
Exit action: Holdno exit trigger is live — hold the position
Stop-Loss — not LIVE
⛔ Two daily closes below C$44 (below the base / bear zone)
Thesis Invalidation — not LIVE
⛔ Gold sustained below its base with real rates rising
⛔ OR a major operational setback / adverse Mali resolution at a Tier-1 asset
Profit-Target — not LIVE
⛔ Price into C$68 (base) with RSI > 70
Forecast: No exit rule is live. The stop sits ~18% below spot; price would have to give back the entire bounce and break the C$49→C$44 base to trigger it.
Imagine you act at the current price of C$53.99 · as of 4 Aug 2026
What if you bought now?
You'd be risking ~18% (to the C$44 stop) to gain ~26% (base C$68) to 52% (bull C$82).
- Risking: downside to stop C$44 (−18%); bear case C$44 (−18%); plus — entry rules NOT yet met: buying an unconfirmed bounce, below the ~C$55–56 reclaim, and ahead of the 10 Aug print.
- Gaining: base C$68 (+26%) · bull C$82 (+52%); plus a ~1.9% dividend and ~8.5% FCF yield collected while the base-and-turn plays out, and free optionality on a gold breakout.
- Net: risk-reward ≈ 1.4:1. Attractive for medium/long accumulation; for a short-term trade, waiting for the earnings/reclaim confirmation is the higher-probability entry.
What if you sold now?
You'd be giving up base-case upside to C$68 (+26%) to protect against the C$44 bear (−18%).
- Giving up: base-case upside to C$68 (+26%); the ~1.9% dividend and ~8.5% FCF yield; selling below fair value ~C$65.
- Protecting: capital if gold rolls over and the multiple compresses to the C$44 bear. Exit rules currently triggered? None.
- Net: no mechanical reason to sell — this is an accumulate/hold zone below fair value, not an exit.
13
Position Sizing Context
Illustrative portfolio math (not advice) translating conviction into an allocation given risk-per-share and volatility.
Position sizing is not prescribed here (reader capital unknown). Context: ABX is a Materials / gold-major line — a portfolio would size it within the Materials sleeve, treating it as a cyclical cash-cow with a structural gold tailwind. Given entry conviction is Wait, a starter-then-add approach (confirm on the 10 Aug print / a 50-DMA reclaim before scaling) fits the current setup better than a full position at spot.
14
Calibration Snapshot
Machine-readable snapshot of every score, level and signal, saved alongside the HTML so the next run can compute deltas.
{
"ticker": "ABX.TO",
"company": "Barrick Mining Corporation",
"currency": "CAD",
"exchange": "TSX",
"exchange_ticker": "TSX:ABX",
"isin": "CA06849F1080",
"finder_ticker": "B",
"analysis_status": "on-going",
"gics_sector": "Materials",
"price_at_rating": 53.99,
"signal_short": "HOLD",
"signal_medium": "BUY",
"signal_long": "STRONG_BUY",
"quality_score": 78,
"valuation_score": 65,
"timing_score": 46,
"driver_score": 62,
"val_band": "attractive",
"driver_commodity_trend": "GLD 371.71 below falling 50-DMA (~386) AND below 200-DMA; -2.7%/4wk, -6.4%/8wk (decelerating) -> gold basing / mild-downtrend. Short Neutral/mild-headwind (no short amp); Med Tailwind (~64); Long Tailwind (~72).",
"hard_gate_state": "caution",
"entry_groups_met": 0,
"entry_conviction": "Wait",
"short_hold_reason": "technical_pending",
"short_entry_confirmed": false,
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"competitive_threat_level": "moderate",
"competitive_share_trajectory": "losing",
"scenario_base_target": 68,
"scenario_bull_target": 82,
"scenario_bear_target": 44,
"next_update_date": "2026-08-11"
}
Signals unchanged versus the 20 Jul report — HOLD / BUY / STRONG BUY — on a +10% price recovery to C$53.99. Short holds on technical-confirmation-pending plus the earnings-event caution; medium and long remain BUY / STRONG BUY on Attractive valuation, a basing gold driver and Materials Strong-Outperform.
15
Data Sources & Methodology
Audit trail of every data source: fully available (✓), fallback (⚠), or failed (✗), plus provenance-based confidence haircuts.
Data Source Status
✓
get_yahoo_quote (ABX.TO) price C$54.13 live; report uses pre-computed C$53.99, CAD verified
✓
FMP ratios / income statement margins, ROE, coverage, multiples
✓
Analyst targets / grades 12 analysts, mean C$65.73, Buy consensus
✓
GLD / gold spot driver trend — basing below falling 50-DMA
✓
Macro sector map (XLB) Materials O/O/SO
Impact on scores: none
DISCLAIMER: This is a quantitative framework for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.