Barrick Mining Corporation (renamed from Barrick Gold in May 2025) is one of the world's largest gold producers, and increasingly a gold-and-copper major, headquartered in Toronto. Its core business is finding, building and operating long-life, large-scale mines — a portfolio of Tier-1 assets including Nevada Gold Mines, Pueblo Viejo, Kibali and Loulo-Gounkoto — and selling the gold, silver and copper it extracts. What sets it apart is the scale and grade of that Tier-1 asset base plus a fortress balance sheet (net cash), which let it stay strongly cash-generative through the price cycle. It also carries a copper growth pipeline (Lumwana, Reko Diq) that is unusual among the gold majors. For a reader: think of it as a low-leverage, diversified gold major whose share price is, above all, a geared bet on the gold price.
Lifecycle & sector: Mature, cash-generative, cyclical producer — Materials / Gold & Copper. Scored on the mining lens (P/NAV, AISC margin, balance-sheet durability, ROIC), not an industrial FCF-only lens, because a miner's economics are a geared bet on the metal price over a long-life asset base.
| Sub-signal | Reading | Score | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue trajectory | +67% YoY (Q1'26 US$5.22B vs US$3.13B) | 88 | Gold-price-driven; top-line inflected hard as spot re-rated. |
| Profitability vs peers | Net margin 32% · EBITDA margin 68% · operating margin 51% | 85 | Top-tier producer margins at current spot. |
| Cash generation | TTM FCF ~US$5.3B · FCF yield ~9% | 86 | Cash conversion strong; funds the US$3B buyback + dividend. |
| Balance-sheet health | Net cash ~US$2.4B · current 3.06 · interest cover 24× · D/E 0.17 | 92 | Fortress. Survives deep into any price cycle. |
| ROIC / returns | ROE 25% · ROA 12% (FMP 5/5/5) | 82 | High through-cycle returns; capital discipline improving. |
Moat ≈ 53 — normal for a producer: the edge is durability and asset quality, not a structural moat.
| Rival | Threat type | Share trajectory | Moat-erosion vector |
|---|---|---|---|
| Agnico Eagle (AEM) | Capital / multiple rival | Barrick losing sentiment share | AEM's lower-cost, safer-jurisdiction book earns a premium P/NAV; Barrick trades at a discount. |
| Newmont (NEM) | Scale peer | Stable | Larger but operationally troubled; not gaining on Barrick. |
| Mid-cap / royalty names | Jurisdiction-risk arbitrage | Stable | Investors pay up for cleaner geography vs Barrick's Mali/Pakistan exposure. |
Scored on the mining lens: P/NAV + cycle-normalised multiples, with spot-gold P/E treated as flattering at a cyclical top. The warranted-multiple anchor uses the miners' guardrail (P/E ≥ 15× / P/NAV ≥ 1.5× is "rich").
| Metric | Value | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Trailing P/E (clean) | ~10.2× (EPS C$4.83) | Cheap on spot earnings |
| Forward P/E | ~7.7× | Cheap if spot holds |
| P/E on normalised ~US$3,000 gold | ~18× | Fair-to-full — the honest through-cycle lens |
| P/NAV (est.) | ~1.0× | Below the 1.5× rich line |
| EV/EBITDA (spot) | ~4.3× | Low; normalises to ~9-10× |
| FCF yield | ~9% | Very attractive (>8%) |
| P/B | 2.13× | Fair |
Analyst consensus (CAD): mean ~C$68.8 (+40% upside), median ~C$74.5, high C$90.4, low C$31.5 across 12 analysts — recommendation "Buy" (18 buy / 4 hold / 2 sell). The low/high spread is >2.8× — a deep gold-level disagreement — so a valuation-confidence haircut is applied. FMP health rating A- (4/5): DCF/ROE/ROA 5/5/5, docked only on the low D/E and cheap-P/E sub-scores.
Primary driver: the gold price. Secondary: copper (Lumwana/Reko Diq) and real interest rates (low real rates support gold). Barrick's fortunes are dominated by the metal, so the Step 2b price-TREND overlay is decisive — level is not trend.
| Horizon | Read | Driver state |
|---|---|---|
| Historical (25%) | Gold rose sharply over 12-24mo, then corrected ~15% off its April peak. | 70 |
| Current (50%) | Level favourable (spot ~US$4,010 ≫ AISC ~US$1,720, 57% margin) but the price trend has rolled over: GLD 367.6 is below a falling 50-DMA (~394.82) and below its 200-DMA (~411.48), -5.0% / -11.9% over 4/8wk — the technical uptrend has broken on both measures, even though spot stays far above the miner's AISC. A live Iran/Hormuz safe-haven bid + record central-bank buying sit underneath the structural case. | 55 |
| Forward (25%) | Fed on-hold/dovish lean, de-dollarisation, sovereign-debt stress and CB demand keep the structural bid; futures modestly contango. | 68 |
Latest MacroDriver (2026-07-20): Materials XLB N / O / SO and Gold N / O / O across Short/Med/Long. Stagflation-lite + de-dollar + sovereign-debt regime is structurally gold-bullish. Pressure = Tailwind (anchored on Medium/Long), which — alongside the Med/Long driver Tailwind — enables the Long STRONG BUY amplification. Short is macro-Neutral, so it adds no short amplification; the base Short stays HOLD.
Source: sector-map (Materials / Gold; ABX not in macro watchlist_forecast) · Macro report 2026-07-20
Timing is scored on the risk-reward framework: multi-timeframe trend, relative strength, ATR/stop geometry, macro overlay (Materials = high sensitivity, 20% weight), sentiment and catalysts.
| Sub-signal | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| MTF confluence | Strongly bearish — monthly/weekly downtrend, daily strong downtrend; price below SMA50 (~C$55.9) and SMA200 (~C$57.9). | 20 |
| Risk-reward | Near support ~C$47.7-48; tight stop possible but entering a live downtrend is unfavourable. | 42 |
| RSI (daily / weekly) | 37 / 40 — approaching oversold, no confirmed bullish divergence yet. | 45 |
| Relative strength | Outperforms a weak SPY tape; lags Agnico within the group. | 50 |
| Macro overlay | Materials XLB short = Neutral; Fed on hold; Iran risk-off two-sided for gold miners. | 50 |
| Sentiment / catalyst | Analyst grades still Buy (no fresh downgrades); FOMC 29 Jul + Q2 earnings ~11 Aug cluster. | 52 |
Timing = 40. The tape is the weakest leg: a fortress business at a cheap price caught in a clear down-move. This is precisely why the Short is capped at HOLD ("buy on confirmation").
| Date | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Relevant? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | FOMC Rate Decision (Warsh) | High | Hold 3.50-3.75% | Hold | ✅ Yes | Rate path drives real rates → gold; Materials = high sensitivity |
| 2026-07-24 | US Flash PMIs (Jul) | Medium | ~52 | 52 | ⚠️ Medium | Global growth signal for copper |
| 2026-08-11 | Barrick Q2 earnings (est.) | High | EPS beat likely | — | ✅ Yes | Production/AISC + buyback pace |
| Date | Event | Actual | Forecast | Surprise | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | US strikes on Iran nuclear sites | — | — | Risk-off | Two-sided: gold safe-haven bid vs broad de-risking |
| 2026-07-15 | Gold spot | US$4,010 | — | Off peak | Metal below a falling 50-DMA — the live near-term headwind |
Materials is a high-sensitivity sector, but no high-impact release falls inside the 3-day WAIT-override window (FOMC is 9 days out). The Iran/Hormuz escalation is a live two-sided force — a safe-haven bid for gold set against broad risk-off. Watch FOMC 29 Jul for the real-rate read.
| Timeframe | Trend | Direction | RSI | MACD | Key S/R | Breakout | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Downtrend | Bearish | 46 | +, flat | S: C$47.5 R: C$54.7 | Support breakdown | 0.5x |
| Weekly | Downtrend | Bearish | 40 | −, falling | S: C$50.9 R: C$61.5 | — | 0.1x |
| Daily | Strong downtrend | Bearish | 37 | −, flattening | S: C$49.0 R: C$53.1 | Support breakdown | 0.9x |
| Hourly | Strong downtrend | Bearish | 47 | −, flat | S: C$47.9 R: C$49.5 | — | — |
| 15-min | Strong downtrend | Bearish | 45 | − | S: C$48.7 R: C$49.5 | — | — |
| Confluence: Strongly Bearish · MTF Score 20 | |||||||
Every timeframe is pointing down — the metal's pull-back has dragged the equity below both the 50- and 200-day averages, and the daily is in a strong downtrend. RSI at 37 (daily) is approaching oversold but there is no confirmed reversal. Key level: a tested higher-low bounce off C$47.7-48, or a reclaim of the ~C$56 50-DMA on volume, is what turns the short-term tape — until then rallies are counter-trend.
ABX.TO 6-month daily (C$) with 50-day SMA. Price has broken below the rising-then-rolling 50-DMA and sits near C$47.7-48 support after gold's pull-back.
Gold breaks back above US$4,300 on a sustained Iran/Hormuz premium + relentless CB buying; Barrick re-rates toward the analyst median as jurisdiction risk keeps fading and the North-American IPO/SOTP unlock lands. ~+67%.
Gold holds ~US$3,800-4,100; buyback + production growth + a modest re-rating carry the stock to the analyst mean (~C$68.8). ~+39%. The probability-weighted centre of gravity.
Gold mean-reverts toward US$3,000-3,200 as the Iran premium unwinds and real rates firm; the equity derates through C$47.7 support. ~−10%. This is a LIVE near-term path — the metal is already in a short-term downtrend.
Forecast: Fundamental group is already MET. Technical group: a reclaim of the ~C$56 50-DMA is ~10-15% away and needs a gold turn — Low confidence in the next 2-3 weeks; a higher-low bounce off C$47.7-48 is the more reachable near-term trigger (Moderate, catalyst/tape-dependent). Catalyst group is earnings-dependent (~11 Aug). Net: the Short stays 'buy on confirmation' until the tape turns.
Forecast: Stop unlikely-to-moderate in 4-6 weeks: price sits ~5% above C$46.5 and the tape is weak, so a gold leg-down is the risk. Thesis-invalidation Unlikely (gold ~US$4,010 vs the US$3,000 floor). Profit-target Unlikely near-term (price 39% below C$68).
What you're risking: you'd be buying into a strong downtrend below the 50- and 200-day averages, with the Technical entry group unmet and gold still under a falling 50-DMA — the C$46.5 stop is ~5% away and the bear path (~C$44) is live if gold mean-reverts. FOMC (29 Jul) and Q2 earnings (~11 Aug) are path risks.
What you're gaining: immediate exposure to a ~+39% base and ~+67% bull path, a ~9% FCF yield and 2% dividend collected while you wait, plus free optionality (North-American IPO/SOTP, Fourmile, copper pipeline). Risk-reward ~1:4 to base. Read: for a Medium/Long holder this is an accumulate-on-weakness zone; a Short trader should wait for the C$47.7-48 bounce or the ~C$56 reclaim — confirmation materially improves the deal.
What you're giving up: selling at C$49 locks in a price ~28% below the analyst mean and well below through-cycle fair value; you forfeit the buyback, dividend and re-rating optionality.
What you're protecting: no exit rule is triggered right now — the stop is clear, thesis intact, no profit-target — so there is no mechanical reason to sell. The only reason to trim is a discretionary call that gold normalises toward US$3,000. Read: this is a hold/accumulate zone, not a sell.
No allocation or portfolio role was supplied, so a position size is not computed. Sizing context: the §12 Conviction Ladder reads Half-Size (1 of 3 entry paths met — Fundamental only), so a starter / scale-in stance is what the rules support, not a full position. ATR ~C$2.11 (~4%/day) and beta ~1.1 mean this trades a touch more than the market; the live downtrend argues for staggering entries (e.g. now / C$47.7 / C$46) rather than all-in.
{
"ticker": "ABX.TO",
"date": "2026-07-20",
"version": "v6",
"company": "Barrick Mining Corporation",
"currency": "CAD",
"exchange": "TSX",
"exchange_ticker": "TSX:ABX",
"isin": "CA06849F1080",
"api_ticker": "ABX.TO",
"us_ticker": "B",
"analysis_status": "on-going",
"finder_ticker": "B",
"finder_exchange": "\ud83c\udde8\ud83c\udde6 TSX \u00b7 \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 NYSE",
"lifecycle_stage": "mature_cashcow_cyclical",
"sector": "Materials",
"gics_sector": "Materials",
"country": "Canada",
"price_at_rating": 49.07,
"signal_short": "HOLD",
"signal_medium": "BUY",
"signal_long": "STRONG_BUY",
"primary_signal": "BUY",
"quality_score": 78,
"valuation_score": 65,
"timing_score": 40,
"driver_score": 61,
"driver_commodity_trend": "GLD 367.6 below falling 50-DMA (~394.82) AND below 200-DMA (~411.48); -5.0%/4wk, -11.9%/8wk; technical uptrend broken on both, though spot ~US$4,010 >> AISC ~US$1,720; live Iran safe-haven + record CB bid underpin the structural case. Short mild-Headwind/Neutral (no short amp), Med Tailwind (~65), Long Tailwind (~72).",
"economic_alignment_stance": "Trend-Following",
"economic_alignment_conviction": 62,
"economic_alignment_pressure": "Tailwind",
"economic_alignment_source": "sector-map",
"macro_report_date": "2026-07-20",
"overall_confidence": 58,
"val_band": "attractive",
"val_multiple_basis": "P/NAV / clean P/E (producer)",
"warranted_multiple": 12.5,
"actual_multiple": 10.0,
"warranted_ratio": 0.8,
"discount_rate_r": 9.0,
"risk_free_10y": 4.5,
"g_near": 6,
"g_term": 3,
"clean_pe": 10.2,
"clean_peg": null,
"nonop_pct_of_net_income": 9,
"fcf_yield": 9.0,
"fair_value_est": 68,
"stop_loss": 46.5,
"target_price": 68,
"scenario_base_target": 68,
"scenario_bull_target": 82,
"scenario_bear_target": 44,
"entry_groups_met": 1,
"entry_conviction": "Half-Size",
"exit_groups_live": 0,
"exit_action": "Hold",
"hard_gate_state": "clear",
"gates_triggered": [],
"gates_caution": [
"AI-tail informational (not inherited \u2014 ABX not AI-cohort)"
],
"do_not_buy_triggers": [],
"competitive_share_trajectory": "losing",
"competitive_threat_level": "moderate",
"analyst_consensus_target": 68.8,
"analyst_target_high": 90.4,
"analyst_target_low": 31.5,
"analyst_target_median": 74.5,
"analyst_target_upside_pct": 40,
"analyst_grades_consensus": "Buy",
"analyst_bullish_pct": 75,
"analyst_coverage_count": 12,
"fmp_rating": "A-",
"fmp_overall_score": 4,
"user_horizon": null,
"user_allocation_pct": null,
"portfolio_role": null,
"next_update_date": "2026-08-03",
"next_update_basis": "default +14d (FOMC 29 Jul & Q2 earnings ~11 Aug beyond 3-day window)",
"next_check_date": "2026-08-03",
"prior_report": "calibration-ABX.TO-20260706-1700.json",
"prior_primary": "BUY",
"changes_note": "Refresh: S/M/L unchanged HOLD/BUY/STRONG_BUY. Price 54.21->49.07 (-9.5%). Timing 48->40 (MTF now strongly bearish). Gold still below falling 50-DMA (Step 2b) -> no short/med amplification; Long STRONG_BUY held on quality + structural bull."
}
Refresh of the 6 Jul report. Signals UNCHANGED at HOLD / BUY / STRONG BUY, but the stock is 9.5% cheaper and the tape is weaker (Timing 48→40, MTF now strongly bearish). Gold remains below a falling 50-DMA (Step 2b), so short/medium amplification stays off; Long STRONG BUY holds on quality + the structural gold/materials tailwind. Not amplified into the corrected short-term tape.