This report translates live macro conditions into a time-framed playbook across asset classes and your watchlist. Each numbered section below drills into one layer of the analysis — from the dominant economic regime, through the driver-level evidence, all the way to the capital flows and catalysts that will move markets in the coming weeks.
The four macro scenarios, their probabilities, and which assets/stocks lead or lag under each.
Heat-map of every active driver against 15 asset classes with a net aggregated signal row.
Evidence per driver: indicators vs thresholds, 3-horizon trajectory, winners/losers.
Your macro-driven playbook across 15 asset classes over Short/Medium/Long horizons.
Where real and fast money is actually moving, with divergence setups and feedback loops.
Where drivers overlap and how double-counting has been prevented in the aggregation.
| Driver | Dominance | Gold (GLD) | TIPS | Silver (SLV) | JPY (FXY) | Defense (XAR) | Agri (DBA) | Oil (USO) | Copper / Ind | EM Eq (EEM) | LT UST (TLT) | USD (UUP) | US Eq (SPY) | US Tech (QQQ) | HY (HYG) | IG (LQD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENDPrivate Credit & Shadow Banking | Critical (5) | ↑↑+0.26 | ↑+0.13 | ·0.00 | ↑↑+0.26 | ·0.00 | ·0.00 | ↓−0.13 | ↓−0.13 | ↓−0.13 | ↑↑+0.26 | ↑+0.13 | ↓↓−0.26 | ↓−0.13 | ↓↓−0.26 | ↓−0.13 |
| ENDUS Economic Health | High (4) | ↑+0.11 | ↑↑+0.21 | ↓−0.11 | ↑+0.11 | ·0.00 | ·0.00 | ↓−0.11 | ↓−0.11 | ↓−0.11 | ↑↑+0.21 | ↓−0.11 | ↓↓−0.21 | ↓−0.11 | ↓↓−0.21 | ↓−0.11 |
| ENDGlobal Monetary Policy | High (4) | ↑↑+0.21 | ↑↑+0.21 | ↑↑+0.21 | ↑↑+0.21 | ·0.00 | ↑+0.11 | ·0.00 | ↑+0.11 | ↑↑+0.21 | ↑↑+0.21 | ↓↓−0.21 | ↑+0.11 | ↑+0.11 | ↑+0.11 | ↑↑+0.21 |
| TEMPIran / Hormuz War | Moderate (3) | ↑+0.08 | ·0.00 | ↑+0.08 | ↑+0.08 | ↑↑+0.16 | ·0.00 | ↑↑+0.16 | ·0.00 | ↓−0.08 | ·0.00 | ↑+0.08 | ↓−0.08 | ↓−0.08 | ↓−0.08 | ·0.00 |
| TEMPUS-China Tariff War | Moderate (3) | ↑+0.08 | ↑↑+0.16 | ·0.00 | ↑+0.08 | ·0.00 | ↑+0.08 | ↓−0.08 | ↓−0.08 | ↓↓−0.16 | ·0.00 | ↓−0.08 | ↓−0.08 | ↓↓−0.16 | ↓−0.08 | ·0.00 |
| ENDUS Fiscal & Sovereign Debt | Moderate (3) | ↑↑+0.16 | ↑+0.08 | ↑+0.08 | ·0.00 | ·0.00 | ·0.00 | ·0.00 | ·0.00 | ·0.00 | ↓−0.08 | ↓−0.08 | ·0.00 | ·0.00 | ·0.00 | ·0.00 |
| ENDStructural Deglobalisation | Moderate (3) | ↑+0.08 | ↑+0.08 | ·0.00 | ·0.00 | ↑↑+0.16 | ↑+0.08 | ·0.00 | ·0.00 | ↓−0.08 | ·0.00 | ↓−0.08 | ↓−0.08 | ↓−0.08 | ↓−0.08 | ·0.00 |
| ENDEnergy Transition & Electrification | Moderate (3) | ·0.00 | ·0.00 | ↑↑+0.16 | ·0.00 | ·0.00 | ·0.00 | ↓−0.08 | ↑↑+0.16 | ·0.00 | ·0.00 | ·0.00 | ·0.00 | ·0.00 | ·0.00 | ·0.00 |
| NET SIGNAL | Σ = 38 | SO+1.08 | SO+0.82 | SO+0.63 | O+0.34 | O+0.34 | N+0.24 | U−0.29 | N−0.05 | N−0.18 | SO+0.61 | U−0.37 | SU−0.58 | U−0.32 | U−0.45 | N−0.03 |
| Indicator | Current | Watch | Breach | Status | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BX Equity YTD | −30% | −20% | −30% | BREACH | ↓ |
| APO Equity YTD | −25% | −15% | −30% | WATCH | ↓ |
| US HY OAS (HYG proxy) | ∼395 bp | 400 bp | 500 bp | WATCH | ↑ |
| Insurer PC exposure | ∼$1T | $750B | $1T | BREACH | ↑ |
| Retail redemption requests | Elevated | Rising | Gate event | WATCH | ↑ |
| Indicator | Current | Watch | Breach | Status | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP QoQ (Q4) | 0.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% | BREACH | ↓ |
| Unemployment Rate (Mar) | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | WATCH | ↑ |
| Headline CPI YoY (Feb) | 2.43% | 3.0% | 3.5% | OK | → |
| Core CPI YoY (Feb) | 2.47% | 2.8% | 3.2% | OK | → |
| ISM Services | Contracting | 50 | 48 | WATCH | ↓ |
| Durable Goods MoM | −1.4% | 0.0% | −2.0% | WATCH | ↓ |
| Indicator | Current | Watch | Breach | Status | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | – | – | Cutting | ↓ |
| 10Y Treasury Yield | 4.29% | 4.50% | 4.80% | OK | ↓ |
| 2Y Treasury Yield | 3.79% | – | – | Pricing cuts | ↓ |
| 10Y−2Y Curve | +51 bp | 0 | −20 bp | Steepening | ↑ |
| DXY Proxy (DTWEXBGS) | 120.66 | 125 | 130 | OK | ↓ |
| M2 YoY | 4.88% | 3.0% | 2.0% | OK | ↑ |
| Indicator | Current | Watch | Breach | Status | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 21.04 | 22 | 28 | OK | ↓ |
| USO ETF | 126.96 | 130 | 145 | OK | ↑ |
| Ceasefire status | Holding | Strained | Broken | WATCH | → |
| Indicator | Current | Watch | Breach | Status | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Effective US tariff rate | Elevated | Stable | Rising | WATCH | → |
| China PMI | <50 | 50 | 48 | WATCH | ↓ |
| Indicator | Current | Watch | Breach | Status | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Federal Debt / GDP | ∼124% | 125% | 130% | WATCH | ↑ |
| 10Y auction tails | Mild | Rising | >3 bp | OK | → |
| Indicator | Current | Watch | Breach | Status | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World trade volume YoY | Flat | −1% | −3% | WATCH | → |
| Indicator | Current | Watch | Breach | Status | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silver spot (USD/oz) | $85.22 | $80 | $100 | RALLY | ↑ |
| Silver supply deficit | Year 6 | Year 4 | Year 8 | BREACH | ↑ |
| Global solar install YoY | +22% | +10% | +5% | OK | ↑ |
| Driver | Type | Dominance | Status | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI & Productivity Revolution | END | 2 | Background | Slowing hype cycle; capex still elevated but earnings beat leadership fading. |
| De-dollarisation & Monetary Geopolitics | END | 2 | Background | CB gold buying continues; DXY down — structural but not market-dominant this week. |
| NATO Rearmament & Global Defense | END | 2 | Background | European defense capex accelerating. Background positive for XAR. |
| China Economic Health | END | 2 | Background | Property stress continues, PBOC easing slowly. Q1 GDP due Apr 16. |
| Climate & Resource Stress | END | 2 | Background | No El Nino/La Nina flip confirmed; agri watch but not active. |
| Global Demographics & Debt | END | 1 | Dormant | Slow-moving structural only. |
| Japan Carry Unwind | TEMP | 1 | Dormant | BOJ unchanged, JPY stable. Watch Apr 17 Japan CPI. |
| Super El Nino | TEMP | 1 | Dormant | NOAA neutral ENSO. Not active. |
| Asset Class (Proxy) | Net Score | Short | Medium | Long | Lead Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commodities & Precious | |||||
| Gold (GLD) | +1.08 | Strong Outperform | Strong Outperform | Strong Outperform | Private Credit, Monetary, Fiscal, US Econ |
| TIPS (TIP) | +0.82 | Strong Outperform | Strong Outperform | Outperform | US Econ, Tariff, Monetary |
| Silver (SLV) | +0.63 | Strong Outperform | Strong Outperform | Strong Outperform | Energy Transition, Monetary |
| Agriculture (DBA) | +0.24 | Neutral | Outperform | Outperform | Deglob, Tariff, Climate |
| Oil (USO) | −0.29 | Neutral | Underperform | Underperform | US Econ demand, Iran off |
| Copper / Ind Metals | −0.05 | Neutral | Neutral | Outperform | Energy Transition vs US Econ drag |
| Equities | |||||
| US Large Cap (SPY) | −0.58 | Strong Underperform | Underperform | Neutral | US Econ, Private Credit, Tariff |
| US Tech (QQQ) | −0.32 | Underperform | Underperform | Neutral | Tariff & rates mixed with AI tailwind |
| Defense ETFs (XAR) | +0.34 | Outperform | Outperform | Outperform | NATO, Deglob, Iran residual |
| EM Equities (EEM) | −0.18 | Underperform | Neutral | Outperform | Tariff drag vs USD weakness |
| Fixed Income | |||||
| Long UST (TLT) | +0.61 | Strong Outperform | Strong Outperform | Outperform | Monetary, US Econ, Private Credit |
| IG Credit (LQD) | −0.03 | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Rate rally vs spread widening |
| High Yield (HYG) | −0.45 | Underperform | Strong Underperform | Underperform | Private Credit, US Econ, Tariff |
| Currencies & Alternatives | |||||
| US Dollar (UUP) | −0.37 | Underperform | Underperform | Underperform | Monetary, Fiscal, US Econ |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | +0.34 | Outperform | Outperform | Neutral | Monetary, Iran residual, Private Credit |
| Ticker | Profile | Short | Medium | Long | Macro rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOFI $16.11 |
US Fintech 98% US revenue High rate sensitivity |
Underperform | Neutral | Outperform | Short: US Econ weakness and private credit stress drive rising consumer losses, offsetting rate-cut tailwinds. Medium: 50–75 bp of cuts lifts originations but credit cycle still working through. Long: full rate-cut cycle + normalisation provides strong setup for consumer-fintech. |
| DLO $12.74 |
EM Fintech 70% LatAm USD negative sensitivity |
Neutral | Outperform | Outperform | Short: US Econ drag offset by USD weakness — close to flat. Medium: USD weakness compounds into LatAm earnings translation tailwind + EM payments volume stabilises. Long: EM recovery path leverages payment volume growth at scale. |
| MNO.TO C$1.72 |
Junior Gold Miner Development stage 2–3x gold beta |
Strong Outperform | Strong Outperform | Strong Outperform | All four dominant drivers — Private Credit Critical, US Econ High, Monetary High dovish, Fiscal structural — all support gold. With 2–3x beta to bullion and a dovish Fed path, this is the purest macro-aligned holding in the watchlist. Only risk: a general risk-off episode that hits junior miners on liquidity. |
| Asset | Flow | Money Type | Conf | Short 0–4w |
Med 1–6m |
Long 6–18m |
Key Drivers | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ Part A — Inflows | ||||||||
| Gold (GLD, physical, miners) | ↑↑ | Real Fast | High | IN | IN | IN | Priv Credit×5 Monetary×4 Fiscal×4 | Central banks continue structural bid. Institutional ETF creations and retail fast-money flows agree. Every active driver except Reacceleration points higher. |
| Long UST (TLT) | ↑↑ | Real | High | IN | IN | — | Monetary×4 US Econ×4 | Pension funds rotating out of risk assets. Fed path + GDP shock = duration bid. Long-horizon flow turns neutral as debt dynamics re-assert. |
| TIPS (inflation-linked) | ↑ | Real | High | IN | IN | — | US Econ×4 Tariff×4 | Stagflation hedge with best real-yield profile. Break-evens still cheap vs forward CPI path. |
| Silver (SLV + physical) | ↑ | Fast | Medium | IN | IN | IN | Energy Trans×3 Monetary×4 | Fast-money rally on supply deficit + dovish Fed. Real money still under-allocated — catch-up flow likely if $100 breaches. |
| ▼ Part B — Outflows | ||||||||
| High Yield Credit (HYG) | ↓↓ | Real Fast | High | OUT | OUT | OUT | Priv Credit×5 US Econ×4 | Both institutional and fast money selling. Private credit stress spilling into public HY market. No horizon is safe. |
| US Large Cap Equities (SPY) | ↓↓ | Fast | Medium | OUT | OUT | — | US Econ×4 Priv Credit×5 | Hedge funds reducing gross exposure. Real money still defensive but not yet selling structurally. Watch for pension reallocation if SPY breaks 10-week lows. |
| US Dollar (UUP) | ↓ | Real | High | OUT | OUT | OUT | Monetary×4 Fiscal×4 US Econ×4 | Structural CB rotation out of USD + dovish Fed + fiscal math. Fast money briefly bid USD during Iran risk-off but now unwinding. |
| Interaction | Primary Source | Transmission | Double-Count Adjustment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Private Credit → US Economic Health | Private Credit (5) | Credit contraction flows through to SME defaults and consumer loss cycle | US Econ impact on HYG capped to −0.5 (not −1.0) to avoid double-counting Private Credit's direct HYG hit. |
| Private Credit → Global Monetary Policy | Private Credit (5) | Stress raises Fed cut probability (forces dovish path) | Monetary's bullish gold impact already captures the cut path — Private Credit's direct gold impact reduced from ↑↑↑ to ↑↑ to prevent stacking. |
| US Economic Health → Global Monetary Policy | US Econ (4) — GDP shock is the growth signal | Weak growth is the reason for the dovish Fed tilt | Monetary rated High independently only because FOMC minutes + global cutting cycle are their own signal. Gold exposure credited once per chain. |
| Tariff War → US Economic Health | Tariff (3) | Tariff pass-through → sticky CPI → real wage hit → demand weakness | Tariff's bearish SPY/QQQ impact counted separately from US Econ's — scales are different (short-run pass-through vs structural growth weakness). |
| Iran War → Monetary Policy | Iran (3) — now downgraded | Oil spike risk kept Fed cautious earlier; ceasefire has reduced that pressure | No double-count since Iran is now Moderate and Monetary is High — they reinforce rather than overlap on gold. |
| Energy Transition → Monetary | Energy Transition (3) | Physical silver demand compounds with dovish real-rate tailwind | Silver has both channels explicitly modelled; LQD impact limited to avoid combining unrelated real-rate and supply effects. |
{
"run_id": "MacroDriver-20260409-weekly",
"date": "2026-04-09",
"total_active_dominance": 38,
"scenario_weights": {
"stagflation_to_contraction": 0.45,
"deflationary_bust": 0.30,
"soft_landing": 0.15,
"reacceleration": 0.10
},
"dominant_regime": "Stagflation-to-Contraction",
"conviction": "higher than last week (Q4 GDP 0.5%, Private Credit 5)",
"drivers": {
"private_credit": { "type": "END", "dominance": 5, "delta": "+1", "confidence": "high" },
"us_economic_health": { "type": "END", "dominance": 4, "delta": "+1", "confidence": "high" },
"global_monetary": { "type": "END", "dominance": 4, "delta": "+1", "confidence": "high" },
"iran_hormuz": { "type": "TEMP", "dominance": 3, "delta": "-1", "confidence": "medium" },
"us_china_tariff": { "type": "TEMP", "dominance": 3, "delta": "0", "confidence": "medium" },
"us_fiscal": { "type": "END", "dominance": 3, "delta": "0", "confidence": "medium" },
"deglobalisation": { "type": "END", "dominance": 3, "delta": "0", "confidence": "medium" },
"energy_transition": { "type": "END", "dominance": 3, "delta": "+1", "confidence": "medium" },
"ai_productivity": { "type": "END", "dominance": 2, "delta": "0", "confidence": "medium" },
"dedollarisation": { "type": "END", "dominance": 2, "delta": "0", "confidence": "medium" },
"nato_rearmament": { "type": "END", "dominance": 2, "delta": "0", "confidence": "medium" },
"china_economic": { "type": "END", "dominance": 2, "delta": "0", "confidence": "medium" },
"climate_resource": { "type": "END", "dominance": 2, "delta": "0", "confidence": "medium" },
"demographics": { "type": "END", "dominance": 1, "delta": "0", "confidence": "medium" },
"japan_carry_unwind": { "type": "TEMP", "dominance": 1, "delta": "0", "confidence": "medium" },
"super_el_nino": { "type": "TEMP", "dominance": 1, "delta": "0", "confidence": "medium" }
},
"asset_net_signals": {
"GLD": { "score": 1.08, "label": "Strong Outperform" },
"TIPS": { "score": 0.82, "label": "Strong Outperform" },
"SLV": { "score": 0.63, "label": "Strong Outperform" },
"TLT": { "score": 0.61, "label": "Strong Outperform" },
"JPY": { "score": 0.34, "label": "Outperform" },
"XAR": { "score": 0.34, "label": "Outperform" },
"DBA": { "score": 0.24, "label": "Neutral" },
"COP": { "score": -0.05, "label": "Neutral" },
"LQD": { "score": -0.03, "label": "Neutral" },
"EEM": { "score": -0.18, "label": "Neutral / Slight Under" },
"USO": { "score": -0.29, "label": "Underperform" },
"QQQ": { "score": -0.32, "label": "Underperform" },
"USD": { "score": -0.37, "label": "Underperform" },
"HYG": { "score": -0.45, "label": "Underperform" },
"SPY": { "score": -0.58, "label": "Strong Underperform" }
},
"watchlist_signals": {
"SOFI": { "short": "Underperform", "medium": "Neutral", "long": "Outperform" },
"DLO": { "short": "Neutral", "medium": "Outperform", "long": "Outperform" },
"MNO.TO": { "short": "Strong Outperform", "medium": "Strong Outperform", "long": "Strong Outperform" }
},
"key_prints": {
"fed_funds": 3.64,
"headline_cpi_yoy": 2.43,
"core_cpi_yoy": 2.47,
"unemployment": 4.3,
"q4_gdp_qoq": 0.5,
"dgs10": 4.29,
"dgs2": 3.79,
"t10y2y_bp": 51,
"vix": 21.04,
"m2_yoy": 4.88,
"dxy_proxy": 120.66
},
"dominant_catalyst_next_week": "US CPI (March) Apr 10 — consensus 3.3% YoY",
"prior_state": "MacroDriver-20260407-weekly.json"
}